Topline
\nAs Microsoft's market capitalization nears the storied $2 trillion mark Monday, Amazon is on pace to become the next company to follow, potentially reaching the $2 trillion mark next year as it climbs in size at a faster rate than either Apple or Microsoft.
\nGREECE - 2021/04/16: In this photo illustration an Amazon logo seen displayed on a smartphone screen ... [+]
Key Facts
\nAs of 2:20 p.m. EDT Monday, Amazon shares were priced at about $3,409 with a market cap of $1.729 trillion, making it the third largest U.S., public company behind Apple and Microsoft.
\n \nIn a recent research note, Jefferies analyst Brent Thill confirmed his 12-month price target of $4,000 for Amazon, noting shares could jump by 70% over three years \u2013 meaning the retailer could reach $2 trillion market cap by early next year if not sooner and could reach $3 trillion in size by 2024.
\n \nThill added that his projections for Amazon do not even include \u201cpotentially meaningful contributions from\u201d the company\u2019s \u201cmulti-billion-dollar opportunities in health care, home security, smart-home devices, and entertainment.\u201d
\n \nAmazon\u2019s rapid ascension reflects the fact that the company \u201chas so many growth drivers and [is] still in early innings in several categories,\u201d Brad Gastwirth, chief technology strategist at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles, told Forbes.
\nGastwirth and other analysts think Amazon could topple Apple as the most valuable public company in a few years
\nKey Background
\nApple became the first public U.S. company to reach $2 trillion in market cap in August 2020, doubling its value in just two years (although it took Apple 40 years from its 1980 IPO to reach $1 trillion). Amazon first touched the $1 trillion market cap threshold in January 2020, after 23 years as a public company. In the event Amazon reaches the $2 trillion market cap later this year or early next it would have taken the company 24 or 25 years from its 1997 IPO to attain the status \u2013 a faster pace than Apple. Looking at future growth prospects, while some Wall Street analysts are concerned about the departure of Jeff Bezos as Amazon chief, Ben Dunbar, managing partner, Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, in Santa Monica, Calif., told Forbes that the company has leaders that have been with the company for a long time and know how to run the business as Bezos does. Even if regulators force the company to break up, Dunbar pointed out Amazon has \u201camazing separate businesses\u201d and a forced break up \u201ccan still bode well for a company so dominant in so many different industries.\u201d Pierce Crosby, general manager of TradingView, a stock trading platform, told Forbes that if Amazon is forced by regulators to divest some assets over time, \u201cI would bet they've created contingency plans for every regulatory scenario on the horizon.\u201d
\nCrucial Quote
\nCloud computing unit Amazon Web Services \u201ccontinues to dominate, no one will ever give up their [Amazon] Prime [subscription] and the pandemic has pushed the focus on convenience. I want to watch TV (use my Fire Stick to watch some Amazon content), I need groceries (Prime Now), I need anything else (Prime). On top of that AWS is on a $50 billion-plus annual run rate [of revenue] and is hugely profitable, and advertising spend is just kicking off,\u201d Dunbar told Forbes.
\nWhat To Watch For
\nAs Wall Street prepares for Amazon\u2019s quarterly earnings release this Thursday, analysts at UBS expect the retailer \u201cto demonstrate its multi-faceted dominance\u201d with revenues growing by 27.5% in the first quarter, slightly below the 28% surge in the fourth quarter. UBS maintains a \u201cbuy\u201d rating on the stock and a 12-month price target of $4,150.
\n\nContra
\nWhile having tech-internet stocks concentrated as the biggest public U.S. stocks may pose some risks to investors, Crosby takes a contrary view. \u201cThe dominance of technology's market cap is a reflection of the potential future value of the sum of the parts,\u201d he told Forbes. \u201cToday, many companies like Amazon have not achieved their full potential, and so the market is valuing not just their current cash flow statement, like they might a more traditional business, but valuing the addressable market for their products.\u201d
Further Reading
\nThe World's Largest Public Companies (Forbes)
\nMicrosoft Nears $2 Trillion Market Value\u2014Second Only To Apple In The U.S. (Forbes)
\n\nThe Legacy That Jeff Bezos Is Leaving Behind At Amazon (Forbes)
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