text: The U.S. is important, but not as crucial to global economic growth as is often assumed, according to European Central Bank researchers.
  
  In a working paper published recently on the ECB’s website, Stéphane Dées and Isabel Vansteenkiste note that the U.S.’s contribution to global growth has fallen from almost 30% in 1950 to around 20% now. But they say the US business cycle still leads the world’s, in most places. Asia, where China’s rise is helping the region establish business cycles largely independent of its main trading partners, is a notable exception.
  
  The U.S.’s influence on other countries’ economies remains larger than direct trade ties would suggest, the authors say. That’s partly because slower U.S. growth would impact not just a single partner country, but also growth in the countries that partner trades with. Other factors including increased financial integration could also play a role.
  
  So, a negative U.S. demand shock equal to 1 percentage-point of U.S. gross-domestic product would decrease GDP in the euro-zone by more than a quarter percentage-point. Considering direct trade ties alone, that effect is just 0.1 percentage point. That pattern holds true for most of the world. Overall, Latin America’s GDP would suffer the most (0.65 percentage point) from a U.S. downturn, while the U.K.’s would suffer the least (0.12 percentage point).
  
  And bad news travels faster than good news. The ECB authors found that the impact of negative shock to the U.S. economy takes just 1-3 quarters to spread worldwide, while a U.S. growth spurt takes between 2-10 quarters. Still, the authors conclude, confirming prior research, the U.S. isn’t the most important factor in global growth, noting “although a downturn in the U.S. would indeed negatively affect the world excluding the U.S., country-specific and global factors continue to dominate the outlook.” -Joellen Perry
  
  Related article: Will Europe Take Hit From U.S. Credit Woes?
summary: The U.S. is important, but not as crucial to global economic growth as is often assumed, according to European Central Bank researchers.  In a working paper published recently on the ECB's website, Stéphane Dées and Isabel Vansteenkiste note that the U.S.'s contribution to global growth has fallen from almost 30% in 1950 to around 20% now. But they say the US business cycle still leads the world's, in most places. Asia, where China's rise is helping the region establish business cycles largely independent of its main trading partners, is a notable exception. The U.S.'s influence on other countries' economies ...