k/57858137.txt

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--- 57858137
>Russia loses 2.5 men for every 1 Ukraine loses despite being the "2nd most powerful military on earth“
So this is the power of 30 year old NATO equipment
--- 57858161
>>57858137 (OP)
Not that bad.
--- 57858299
>>57858161
This. No panic
--- 57858341
>>57858137 (OP)
Yes russia loses 2-3x as many men
But russia have 5x population 
Russia eventually win. It is math
--- 57858352
>>57858341
That's only if they are willing to commit literally every man to the cause and have them die
--- 57858358
>>57858341
Unless most of that population refuses to die.
--- 57858359
That's a pretty bad ratio for the Ukranians honestly. I thought they were doing much better considering how many attacks theyve spoiled
--- 57858368
>>57858137 (OP)
>Common battle doctrine dictates that one should expect 3 losses to every kill on a defensive battle
It's bad, and personally I'd be embarrassed about it, while supposedly enjoying such an enormous technological and numerical advantage over Ukraine. But it tracks.
--- 57858381
>>57858352
They will.... Putin will do whatever it takes because the only other option results in his death. Russia has already mathematically won the war. Only question now is how costly the West can make Russia's victory.
--- 57858387
>>57858381
You would have a point if Russia was losing men but gaining ground. But Russia is losing more men and LOSING ground.
--- 57858405
>>57858381
>>57858359
At the start of the war Russia had better tech than Ukraine so over time the KDR becomes even more in Ukraine's favor. For half the war Russia had better equipment than Ukraine but now every day Ukraines equipment gets better while Russia's get worse.
--- 57858406
>>57858341
That assumes Russia can mobilize its entire fighting-capable population and equip them, which is unlikely. It also assumes that that loss rate is stable, which it probably isn't, since Ukraine practices rotation of its troops more regularly and they're getting a better grab bag of toys from interested parties. As this war goes on you can expect Russian loss ratios to worsen, due to lower-quality stock with little/no training using lesser equipment in formations that are increasingly unmechanized with decreasing levels of artillery support due to shell starvation and the barrels of their guns getting fucked-out and supplemented/replaced with inferior equipment (T-62s and T-54/55s in a fire support role).
--- 57858408
>>57858358
Tbf Russians are a race of slaves. What's dying to a subhuman slave that probably wants to die anyway?
--- 57858432
>>57858406
I expect Russia to continue to try and augment their manpower by pressuring Belarus to attack (unlikely to happen), and by continuing to try to entice niggers and towelheads to sign fighting contracts. So far the volume of such individuals seems to be pretty low.
--- 57858433
>>57858406
That's the best part. At the start of the war Russian soldiers were better trained and had better equipment than Ukraine. Now it's the opposite
--- 57858468
>>57858433
Yes but Russia makes up for it by just conscripting increasing numbers of men. It worked 1000 years ago. It worked 100 years ago. Surely it would work today

>>57858358
Russian propaganda says they’re winning against the entirety of NATO
--- 57858483
lol
lmao
--- 57858494
>>57858468
>It worked 100 years ago
They lost ww1 and ww2 they only won because the US lend leased them, the same thing the US is doing for Ukraine right now.
--- 57858508
>>57858405
What tech advantage? In what area did Russia completely outmatch the Ukranians?
--- 57858514
>>57858508
At the start of the war Russia had better planes and tanks.
--- 57858531
>>57858137 (OP)
Our shit is pretty good, but don't discount the fact that it's easier to defend than invade. Especially when the Ruskies are so blatantly incompetent. Nonetheless, fuck both Russia and Ukraine.
--- 57858540
Now that it's confirmed that the leak documents are real (or at least a Psy-op planned by the US but I doubt this since it makes the US look bad) we can safely say the Ukraine to Russian KDR is 2.5 to 1. 
It seems this was generally what /k/ predicted the KDR would have been while /pol/ deluded themselves into thinking Russia had the better KDR.
So I guess any copium from /pol/ should be discarded.
--- 57858546
Isn't 3:1 the standard losses ratio for the attacking force?
--- 57858560
>>57858540
Anon the US is absolutely willing to look bad for an advantage. Everyone shits on us anyway, who cares.
--- 57858570
>>57858546
No, it's the ratio the attacking force is supposed to have in order to have a 50/50 chance of victory. 

But did you know where that rule came from? American army analysis of Soviet performance on the Ostfront lol. "Professional" armies often attack and win with 1:1 or lower force ratios.
--- 57858596
>>57858514
Didnt we establish neither of those things have had a significant effect on the war? If that was their only big advantage it still doesn't excuse Ukraine's abnormally high death toll considering theyve been on the defencive 90% of this war
--- 57858601
>>57858560
I see your point but the glowies aren't smart enough to 4D chess this.
>Came from a discord called "Thug Shakers" then went to an ironic commie discord called "Wow_mao" then went to actual Russian shills where it was edited so the Kills of each side are flipped before the original being revealed
--- 57858606
>>57858540
It's more interesting to see how the KDR has evolved over the past 416 days. It was likely a lot lower at first, having gone up over time as the Russians lost all their shiny toys.
--- 57858613
>>57858161
Unironically , they have a lot of people more
--- 57858623
>>57858596
>We are losing but we should be losing more
Russians are funny
--- 57858668
>>57858137 (OP)
at the start of the war they were still killing like crazy and didn't even have much nato gear. just training from US national guards units. The LAPD is probably a more effective fighting force than most formations of the Russian military.
--- 57858762
>>57858623
So your explanation sucked and now you're going to default to calling people Russians? You guys think this makes your surrogate side immune to any criticism but really it just makes you look retarded.
--- 57858815
>>57858596
>17k
>abnormally high death toll
okay
--- 57858848
>>57858815
The most well known military maxim is you need a 3:1 advantage to take a position from an entrenched enemy. Losing 2.5:1 is basically par for the course and not what you should be aspiring to if you're the Ukranians
--- 57858879
>>57858613
So what? the will to fight of the Russian people is much worse due to shifting and schizo-tier war goals and Ukraine’s very clear goals of territorial defense and national survival.
--- 57858884
>>57858762
>Explanation
What are you talking about?
Russia the 2nd greatest army is apparently losing 2.5 times as many people as Ukraine. Imagine if the same happened to the US in the middle east.
--- 57858901
>>57858848
It's only par for the course for Russia (that is where the original 3 to 1 figure comes from). The US and Germany did not see 3 to 1 death counts and neither did Japan.
--- 57859043
>>57858884
They weren't the second greatest army when the war started and they definitely arent now. Stop parroting Russian propaganda because you think I buy into it. Their army is a shell of what the Soviets may have been and the Ukranians aren't fighting the second best army in the world.
Quit making excuses. The Ukranian performance is bad.
--- 57859059
>>57858901
You're conflating wars of maneuver and encirclement with wars of static defence. The US and Germany didn't need 3:1 because they were able to bypass the enemy and cut them off. There is nothing like that happening in Ukraine
--- 57859069
>>57858381
>Russia has already mathematically won the war.
Legally captured Bakhmut, technically got to Kiev, mathematically won the war. Will we EVER stop winning?
--- 57859080
>>57858137 (OP)
> hur dur reddit
--- 57859189
>>57859043
>Killing 3 times more than the enemy is bad
--- 57859278
>>57859189
>missing the entire point just spelled out to him
Well done. I won't argue with your dumb ass anymore
--- 57859294
>>57859278
You assume this war will end when one side loses all of their men. That isn't how it's going to end. At current rates both Ukraine and russia can continue the war for 20 years.
What is more important is which side is losing experienced men and equipment.
Russia is losing experienced men far faster than Ukraine and is losing equipment far faster than Ukraine.
--- 57859572
>>57859543
Russia lost like three or four villages overnight.
Not a joke post.
--- 57859624
>>57858359
Start of the war went quite badly
--- 57859680
Here is a simple fact. The death counts were no where NEAR what would be needed on either side for the war to be close to over. Whichever side loses the equipment necessary to fight the war will be the loser. 
In other words Russia's unironic form of victory isn't on the battlefield but getting republicans into office in America.
--- 57859712
>>57859680
Why are Democrats so interested in sending all of our money and military equipment to Ukraine?
--- 57859737
>>57859712
The same reason republicans are so interested in sending all of our money and military equipment to Israel.
--- 57859756
>>57859712
Russia is the biggest thread the US has ever faced. With only 5% of America's yearly military budget the US with the help of Ukraine has utterly btfo Russia
--- 57860131
>>57859712
Is it a Democrat only thing?
Is it all the money?
Is it all the equipment? I doubt that.
--- 57860266
>>57858381
>>57858341
You're not considering the irreplaceability of Russian military equipment in the short term.
Ukraine is still amassing equipment for their offensive while Russia won't be able to replace every gun, truck, and tank for years to come.
Yes, the Chinese are evading sanctions and delivering to them a certain amount of goods for both civilian and military usage, like microchips, but even with that help Russia does not have the industrial capability to compete with NATO.
--- 57860335
>>57859712
Because losing Taiwan and its microchip industry to China would be absolutely unacceptable.

Imagine what kind of message the US and NATO would send to China if they refused to do anything about Ukraine and just allow Russia to do as they want to its neighbors: "Please do as you wish in Asia, we won't lift a single finger to protect our international interests, such as refusing to protect our imports of grain and natural gas and oil from Ukraine."
--- 57860375
>>57858137 (OP)
russia is also losing equipment at a 7:1 ratio and that is gonna impact the k:d sooner than later as the ukies start deploying more advanced western kit compared to the clapped out museum pieces the russians have started fielding
--- 57860656
>>57858161
>>57858341
I actually read a post here a little while ago that did the math and calculated Russia could afford to lose 1.9 to 2.2x more men than Ukraine.

https://desuarchive.org/k/thread/57849664/#57850652

>In Russia, 14.1% of the population is 20-39 year old men, although there are more 30-39 than 20-29 by a significant margin.

>That's 19.74 million men. Even if half are exempted for some reason and you assume 3 logistics personnel are needed for every combat soldier, that gives them 2.47 million men under arms to use.

>Ukraine by contrast has 14.2% of its population as 20-39 year old men, out of 44 million, or 6.2 million men. Even if we assume they are more willing to fight and so can use 75% of that, substituting women for some roles, and a more favorable logistics ratio of 2.5/1 combat soldier, advantages that in reality are not nearly that big, that leaves them with 1.3 million men. Russia can take 1.9 times the losses based on those odds, and likely more like 2.2-1 since Ukraine's logistics and mobilization advantage will be big but not that big. 

Even a KDR of 2.5 seems to be over what Russia can afford if that anon's math is right. That's actually fairly surprising, at least IMO.
--- 57860688
>>57858381
>Russia has already mathematically won the war
>t. Roman MacNamarov
--- 57860793
>>57858879
That's true but when a front collapse it goes down very fast both materially and morally so you never know
--- 57860958
>>57858432
>pressuring Belarus to attack

Belarus had massive riots in 2020 after Lukashenko rigged the election. Russians tried to both incite revolt AND save Lukashenko to gain power inside Belarus.

But the people of Belarus? They hate both Lukashenko and Russia.
--- 57861040
>>57858341
Now do tanks.
--- 57861085
>>57860958
Once Ukraine wins, Belarus will be the next one to be freed of russian poison, and they know it
--- 57861099
>>57859712
>Why are Democrats so interested in sending all of our money and military equipment to Ukraine?
Because it costs money to store and maintain the shit and it was all old shit anyway and doing so lets us completely fucking ruin our main geopolitical military rival AND advertise how shit their hardware is compared to ours when we're both major arms exporters.

Which means third world nations are gonna come to us for hardware. That comes with economic benefits as well as giving us inroads into their internal affairs.
--- 57861263
>>57858137 (OP)
>thermal quadrotor drones
>30 year old nato equipment
who are you trying to fool?
--- 57861316
>>57858341
Ukraines economy is funded by the west.
Russia still needs most of it's working age men to keep the economy alive.
--- 57861328
>>57858341
and them what do you do when 60-70% of the young population are either dead or cripple?

especially in a country with negative brith rate?
--- 57861535
>>57858341
Russia would still be completely neutered as a threat for decades to come.
The question is not only whether Russia can eventually win in Ukraine, the question is also what will be left of Russia after the war ends, victory or defeat.
--- 57861769
I too am demoralized by the low kill ratio. How is the vehicle ratio 1:7 and the KIA ratio only 1:3? Particularly with all the frontal assaults and drone drops? 

I wonder if this "tolerable" death rate is some sort of psyop to get the vatniks to commit further so they will get totally chewed up.
--- 57862049
>>57859059
Except that the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives happened
--- 57862105
>>57858901
3:1 is what you want to bring to avoid losing 2.5 dudes per other dude you kill.
--- 57862621
>>57861099
Then why haven't we just outright entered the theater of war?
Why the pissing contest?
Go in, stomp Russia, look like heroes on the world stage
--- 57864730
>>57858596
>defencive
Post indoor plumbing Rajesh
--- 57866193
>>57858762
russia attacked with the full force of their army against a country they bordered. Ukraine defended themselves with mostly volunteers, and shit equipment. russia should have stomped them but got stalled and then pushed back. Ukraine now has a year of fighting experience with Western intel and equipment. russia is now completely fucked militarily, economically, and politicly. Understand now?
--- 57866213
>>57858137 (OP)
send the ukranians F35's 

>be Russian pilot
>fly in airspace covered by your anti air,no risk to be shot down,right?
>see a small dot
>blown to pieces by AMRAAM

problem,vatnigs?
--- 57866227
>>57859712
I’m not a democrat in any way, I just want to see russians die
--- 57866231
>>57866227
so your based,got it
--- 57866263
>>57862621
Nooks
--- 57866403
It is still 10 good men for 25 asiatic subhumans.
--- 57866560
>>57858359

the ratio is constantly getting better. have you seen what shit they are driving to the front puccia
--- 57866600
>>57858341
Would be true if we don't consider a "quality" aspect. Every few thousand or so men lost means the overall value per man drops to 0.99, 0.98, and so on. So yeah not really looking too good for them.
--- 57866686
>>57858137 (OP)
Guess you've been in a coma the last few months. The optimistic assessment was 7 Ukrainian cucked globohomo bitches dead to every God fearing Russian convict killed. Ukraine is obviously just about out of fighting age men. They're sending kids and old men and Russia hasn't finished emptying out their prisons..
--- 57866921
>>57866227
Which means you're a rational individual.
--- 57866962
>>57866686
Yes Russia does say this. Too bad it's not true
--- 57867256
>>57858848
3:1 gives you a decent chance to capture entrenched positions it is not the amount of expected casualtyes
Russia has barely captured anything since the K/herson K/rieg Bop pushed them back and still suffered 2.5:1
Both armyes are suffering loss of experienced men. 
Question is who will run out of those sooner. 
It is not the only factor but it helps tip the balance of power
--- 57867494
>>57862621
Americans dying in Ukraine is bad PR.
--- 57867530
>>57858381
I don't think that's what's going to happen. I think Putin might take the L to be the bigger man so that Russia can salvage some ties with the rest of the world and more importantly, create his own "stab in the back" myth to scapegoat someone for all of this.
So if the Wagner HQ gets raided and we see live footage on Russian tv of all the opulance being confiscated from there while the news talks about how impoverished and undersupplied the average Russian soldier was, we will officially know that's what his plan is.
--- 57867605
>>57858540
The paper itself states that ukie casuality numbers are unreliable, so all of this proves is, that russians lose 2,5 soldier for every 1 self declared ukrainian loss.
--- 57868361
>>57858623
Unironically yes. The sooner it all ends, the better.
--- 57868821
So what's the verdict? Russia will win in the end simply because it can mobilize more troops?
--- 57869044
>>57867494
And Americans dying in the sandbox for 20 years wasn't?
--- 57869056
>>57868821
More men mobilised just means more meat for the grinder
--- 57869094
>>57866600
The K:D ratio would increasingly get better for the Ukrainians and then compounding the issue for the Russians.
--- 57869103
>>57864730
That joke really gets funnier about the 100th time it's been posted here
--- 57869115
>usa loses child at homefront birthday party
that's sad
--- 57869128
>>57869056
Ukraine is losing men too tho...
--- 57869188
>>57858137 (OP)
>have static battle
>be heavily outnumberd by enemy artillery
>spout bullshit about the enemy having more casualties
There's no hope for mental retardation once it reaches these final steps.
--- 57869193
>>57869188
But enough about Russia
--- 57869209
>>57869188
>yikes have lost 70k Kia
>somehow russia can't attack anywhere along Ukraines heavily depleted line and instead just wants to continue grinding instead of winning

Sounds 100% real and russia has only lost 600 vehicles
--- 57869229
>>57869209
B- But the numbers!! The numbers on the paper!!!
Nvm a year of reporting Russia has the arty advantage in a static battle, the paper!!! Almost all castualties are from artillery, but muh papers!!
No hope left unfortunately
--- 57869236
Didn't the leaked docs say that Ukraine spent pretty much all their artillery?
--- 57869254
>>57858514
Lol Ukraine had a Tech advantage this whole war , the other side doesn’t have 24/7 Fives eyes satellite intel. ATGMs and Manpads donated from every western country. Every Russian mobilization/troop movement is being watched from space the Russians don’t have that lvl of sophistication.
--- 57869266
>>57858341
The main issue I see with this is that Ukrainians are far more motivated to fight. They are fighting for their homes, land, and people. Russians are fighting for... biolabs and nazis or something? If Ukrainians were pushing towards Moscow, that's one thing. That's never been the case though, no matter how hard the russian media spins it.
--- 57869274
>>57869254
lmao, have you ever watched anything besides /r/combatfootage?
--- 57869338
>>57860656
>and you assume 3 logistics personnel are needed for every combat soldier
Lol. Lmao. This is Russia anon. What are logistics?
--- 57869369
>>57869229
>Ukraine has 100% taken a billion casualties
>and russia has only lost 600 vehicles Oryx is fake and a liar and even if true russia has enough in storage to last decades!
>they're using 1940s artillery and tanks from the 50s because they want to make it a fair fight!!!
>russia has overwhelming artillery advantage, but doesn't want to attack anywhere else along Ukraine's thin, undermanned line because who knows
--- 57872332
How much of russia's whole military have they sent to Ukraine by now?
--- 57874399
>>57858341
>these replies 
Kek’d
--- 57875443
>>57869236
All of their soviet era artillery, yes
--- 57875628
>>57858137 (OP)
It's over for Russia. Also Putin stopped clipping his nails it's over in two weeks now for sure.
--- 57875664
>>57858494
US provided way more to the USSR than they are doing to Ukraine.
--- 57875778
>>57858468
And there was a massive hit to the population in Russia after WWII, a hit they still haven't recovered from.

We'll see it again after the Ukraine conflict but probably far worse since apparently Russia's birth rates have been on a decline.
--- 57875823
>>57858137 (OP)
It's only going to get worse as russian troops lose more and more equipment. They've been tapping into their rustbucket reserves but even that will run out.
--- 57875827
>>57858546
>>57858570
3:1 is the advantage defensive troops enjoy in (modern) peer combat when one side is assaulting a fortified position if you want to say it exactly right (in pre-modern it was 10:1). It's not a ratio of what you need to fucking win at all, more like how many times a defensive troop is worth an attacking troop in projections.

It doesn't directly translate to losses and it only fucking applies to peer warfare, not whatever the fuck is going on in Ukraine.
--- 57875844
>>57869338
These ones where they take it and sell it off to some foreigner. The soldiers that are suppose to get the gear? Fuck that, ain't getting paid enough to supply them.
--- 57876062
>>57858137 (OP)
30 year old HATO equipment but 21st century HATO intelligence.
--- 57876073
>>57860266
Of course I'm not considering it, it destroys my argument.
--- 57876567
>>57858341
Let's fucking gooo Putin! Let's make this a reality! I want to see more dead puccians!
--- 57876644
>>57869338
Well you know, logistics is what allow an army to properly function, I mean, some people still believe Command and Conquer is a perfect reflection of how armies work IRL.