cyberosa
commited on
Commit
·
3bc6a67
1
Parent(s):
330cbe3
updating the graphs with new weekly data
Browse files
data/all_trades_profitability.parquet
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data/closed_markets_div.parquet
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notebooks/divergence.ipynb
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" currentAnswer id \\\n",
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"
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"
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"\n",
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" openingTimestamp market_creator opening_datetime first_outcome_prob \\\n",
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"
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"
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"\n",
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" second_outcome_prob kl_divergence off_by_perc \n",
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{
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" </thead>\n",
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" <th>120</th>\n",
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" <td>yes</td>\n",
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" <td>0x5feab3ad41a2575461b06c5e911d67d3616ee17e</td>\n",
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" <td>2024-08-12 02:00:00</td>\n",
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" <td>9.66</td>\n",
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" </tr>\n",
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" <tr>\n",
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" <th>148</th>\n",
|
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" <td>yes</td>\n",
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" <td>1723593600</td>\n",
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" <td>2024-08-14 02:00:00</td>\n",
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" <td>9.50</td>\n",
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" </tr>\n",
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" <tr>\n",
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" <th>194</th>\n",
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" <td>no</td>\n",
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" <td>1723939200</td>\n",
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" <td>quickstart</td>\n",
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" <td>2024-08-18 02:00:00</td>\n",
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" <td>0.0893</td>\n",
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" <td>0.9107</td>\n",
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" <td>0.093542</td>\n",
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" <td>8.93</td>\n",
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" </tr>\n",
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"</table>\n",
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],
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"text/plain": [
|
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" currentAnswer id \\\n",
|
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"120 yes 0x5feab3ad41a2575461b06c5e911d67d3616ee17e \n",
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"148 yes 0x99a7e8be86a78cf2096a15887e9add122ff113d2 \n",
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"194 no 0x34acf849dd645b559ddbf09059df39a1d9b10f18 \n",
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"\n",
|
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" openingTimestamp market_creator opening_datetime first_outcome_prob \\\n",
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+
"120 1723420800 quickstart 2024-08-12 02:00:00 0.9034 \n",
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"148 1723593600 quickstart 2024-08-14 02:00:00 0.9050 \n",
|
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+
"194 1723939200 quickstart 2024-08-18 02:00:00 0.0893 \n",
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"\n",
|
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" second_outcome_prob kl_divergence off_by_perc \n",
|
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+
"120 0.0966 0.101590 9.66 \n",
|
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"148 0.0950 0.099820 9.50 \n",
|
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"194 0.9107 0.093542 8.93 "
|
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},
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"execution_count": 8,
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"output_type": "execute_result"
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}
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],
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"source": [
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"div_data.loc[div_data[\"off_by_perc\"]<=10]"
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"outputs": [
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349 |
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" 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.62418098, 0.69314718, 0.69314718,\n",
|
350 |
+
" 0.60330648, 0.69314718, 1.29062061, 1.15740734, 0.60239282,\n",
|
351 |
+
" 0.57252374, 0.95139991, 0.85896567, 0.83263916, 0.69314718,\n",
|
352 |
+
" 0.52746326, 0.75395932, 0.57057563, 1.38949949, 0.69314718,\n",
|
353 |
+
" 0.98349948, 0.25721753, 1.67450991, 0.23117572, 0.27878841,\n",
|
354 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.78679874, 0.34488755,\n",
|
355 |
+
" 0.37033931, 0.27984619, 0.29383429, 0.91180083, 0.69314718,\n",
|
356 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.6953496 , 0.67924428, 0.69314718, 0.69314718,\n",
|
357 |
+
" 0.6909496 , 0.43479094, 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.58536959,\n",
|
358 |
+
" 0.8187104 , 0.6953496 , 0.83263916, 0.66904011, 0.69314718,\n",
|
359 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.43155244, 0.85496048, 0.69314718, 0.69314718,\n",
|
360 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.6953496 , 0.37994357, 0.67688021, 0.65027928,\n",
|
361 |
+
" 0.63468961, 0.90362133, 0.69314718, 0.90312775, 0.41143288,\n",
|
362 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.91804226, 0.93521874, 0.45744285, 0.69314718,\n",
|
363 |
+
" 0.38243241, 0.36528332, 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.69314718,\n",
|
364 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.75502258, 0.69314718, 0.34644177,\n",
|
365 |
+
" 0.43216849, 1.2265593 , 0.69314718, 1.30195321, 0.67119001,\n",
|
366 |
+
" 0.35524739, 0.69314718, 0.67119001, 0.44613086, 0.71559731,\n",
|
367 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.76314055, 0.26565969, 0.69314718, 0.57075257,\n",
|
368 |
+
" 0.86132917, 0.57075257, 0.55025969, 1.25421402, 0.35610368,\n",
|
369 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.39245017, 0.69314718, 0.54731673,\n",
|
370 |
+
" 0.25128586, 1.50688132, 0.31512179, 0.29948478, 0.37687765,\n",
|
371 |
+
" 0.4764242 , 0.69314718, 0.95659203, 0.31704223, 0.15712176,\n",
|
372 |
+
" 0.18693217, 0.14629826, 0.69314718, 0.29437106, 0.4405225 ,\n",
|
373 |
+
" 0.73022619, 1.55211285, 0.2010152 , 0.16699954, 0.8603831 ,\n",
|
374 |
+
" 1.83320666, 0.95633178, 0.83471074, 0.26513811, 0.69314718,\n",
|
375 |
+
" 1.07704651, 0.5163408 , 0.35197174, 0.69314718, 0.83263916,\n",
|
376 |
+
" 0.30979136, 0.92861638, 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.27338477,\n",
|
377 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.82211756, 0.69314718,\n",
|
378 |
+
" 0.69735603, 0.29557984, 0.81215597, 0.36571569, 0.69314718,\n",
|
379 |
+
" 1.24132859, 0.69314718, 0.21815601, 0.30584604, 0.28861584,\n",
|
380 |
+
" 0.31717954, 0.55216859, 0.29894526, 0.69314718, 0.69856181,\n",
|
381 |
+
" 0.69314718, 1.38909829, 0.35496213, 0.69314718, 0.27680808,\n",
|
382 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.67119001, 0.69314718,\n",
|
383 |
+
" 0.27931716, 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.57075257, 0.69314718,\n",
|
384 |
+
" 0.49298571, 0.2182804 , 1.05096564, 0.65932563, 1.03704693,\n",
|
385 |
+
" 0.57075257, 0.49036962, 0.53597251, 0.4764242 , 0.73459437,\n",
|
386 |
+
" 0.50005055, 0.4764242 , 0.69314718, 0.64588199, 0.37965117,\n",
|
387 |
+
" 0.5608916 , 0.69314718, 0.68617157, 1.30822283, 0.93547355,\n",
|
388 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.97021907, 0.65027928, 1.09871229, 0.25077172,\n",
|
389 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.92558378, 0.69314718, 0.57110655,\n",
|
390 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.69314718, 0.83263916, 0.69314718,\n",
|
391 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.53682743, 0.69314718, 1.33370191, 1.13072234,\n",
|
392 |
+
" 0.28090509, 0.72278199, 0.71559731, 0.69314718, 0.86988436,\n",
|
393 |
+
" 0.69314718, 0.61766872, 0.33017212, 0.69314718, 0.69314718,\n",
|
394 |
+
" 0.69314718])"
|
395 |
+
]
|
396 |
+
},
|
397 |
+
"execution_count": 7,
|
398 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
399 |
+
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
400 |
+
}
|
401 |
+
],
|
402 |
+
"source": [
|
403 |
+
"div_data.kl_divergence.values"
|
404 |
+
]
|
405 |
},
|
406 |
{
|
407 |
"cell_type": "code",
|