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Will Mayor Brandon Scott receive 70% of the vote in the 2024 Baltimore mayoral race?

From Wikipedia: "The 2024 Baltimore mayoral election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the mayor of Baltimore, Maryland. Incumbent Brandon Scott was first elected in 2020 with 70.5% of the vote and is running for re-election to a second term.[1] Scott was considered vulnerable, as polls found that Baltimore residents were split on his performance as mayor.[2] He faced criticism for his handling of important issues in the city, including schools, constituent services, and crime.[3] However, Scott's response to the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse, as well as his progress in growing the economy and reducing homicides, allowed him to make inroads with voters and boost his approval rating.[4][5] Scott defeated former mayor Sheila Dixon in the Democratic primary, a result that is considered tantamount to victory in the heavily Democratic city.[6] His path to victory involved running up massive margins in Baltimore's majority-white precincts while running close to Dixon in its majority-Black areas."

yes

2024-10-29T14:30:00Z

2024-10-28T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will Democratic Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo be re-elected in Colorado's 8th Congressional District in the 2024 election?

Ballotpedia: [Colorado's 8th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado%27s_8th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.

no

2024-10-29T14:30:00Z

2024-10-28T14:30:00Z

resolved

For 2024, will there be more than one bank listed on the FDIC's Failed Bank List?

As of September 26, 2024, there was only one bank on the Failed Bank List: Republic First Bank dba Republic Bank

annulled

2024-10-29T14:30:00Z

2024-10-28T14:30:00Z

resolved

[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?

Proposition 33 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_33,_Prohibit_State_Limitations_on_Local_Rent_Control_Initiative_(2024))) will appear on the state-wide ballot in California for the US General Election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will pass if a simple majority who vote on the measure approve it. Since this question will be decided by popular vote, this question essentially asks whether sentiment in California had shifted since the post-Covid housing crisis on whether voters would be inclined to favor rent control. This might be a bellwether on popular attitudes on the housing crisis and progressive sentiment in the United States where people demand the government to take proactive measures to address certain social problems. Proposition 33 would repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, which prevents local governments from enacting rent control on homes built after 1995 or if the tenants move out. Essentially, Proposition 33 will empower local governments to have more available courses of action to reduce rents. Governor Gavin Newsom passed a law in 2019 that capped rent increase in California to 5 percent plus the rate of inflation or a maximum of 10 percent. However, proponents of Proposition 33 argue that this is insufficient. Generally, tenant advocates support Proposition 33, while landlord interest groups are bankrolling the campaign against it. The conventional wisdom among economists is that rent control will lower the supply of housing since it reduces the profit incentive for developers to produce more housing. In 2020, Proposition 21 was on the ballot, which would authorize cities to enact rent control ordinances. The Proposition only received 40.1 percent approval out of the votes of voted on the proposition. Sources: https://calmatters.org/housing/2024/10/prop-33-2024-fact-check/ https://calmatters.org/election-2020-guide/proposition-21-rent-control/

no

2024-11-05T14:30:00Z

2024-10-30T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will Republican Congressman David Schweikert be re-elected in Arizona's 1st Congressional District in the 2024 election?

Ballotpedia: [Arizona's 1st Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_1st_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.

yes

2024-10-26T14:30:00Z

2024-10-25T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before January 1, 2025?

According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. The September 2024 FOMC meeting is [scheduled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/12/what-to-expect-from-the-feds-remaining-meetings-of-2024) for September 18th.

yes

2024-10-26T14:30:00Z

2024-10-25T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before December 1, 2024?

According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. The September 2024 FOMC meeting is [scheduled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/12/what-to-expect-from-the-feds-remaining-meetings-of-2024) for September 18th.

yes

2024-10-26T14:30:00Z

2024-10-25T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before November 1, 2024?

According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. The September 2024 FOMC meeting is [scheduled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/12/what-to-expect-from-the-feds-remaining-meetings-of-2024) for September 18th.

no

2024-10-26T14:30:00Z

2024-10-25T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?

The United Kingdom has seen several MPs suspended from their parties, resign, or change political allegiance in recent years due to various factors such as political scandals, internal party conflicts, or shifting personal or ideological stances. Since the July 4, 2024 general election, seven Labour MPs [were suspended](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c978m6z3egno) for voting against the party on an amendment to scrap the two-child benefit cap, and one [resigned](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/mp-rosie-duffield-resigns-labour-keir-starmer-zxm6h8lzq) over the so-called [freebies controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Labour_Party_freebies_controversy).

yes

2024-10-26T14:30:00Z

2024-10-25T14:30:00Z

resolved

What will Pennsylvania's voter turnout percentage be for the 2024 presidential election?

Pennsylvania, a key battleground state in U.S. presidential elections, plays a significant role in determining the outcome of national elections. Voter turnout in Pennsylvania can vary based on factors such as political engagement, voter registration efforts, and the competitiveness of the election. In the 2020 election, Pennsylvania had a turnout of approximately 70.93% of eligible voters. This question aims to forecast the voter turnout as a percentage of the eligible voting population in the 2024 election. Voter turnout is a crucial metric that reflects public engagement with the political process and can influence the state's overall electoral outcomes. As political campaigns, social issues, and national sentiment shape the election, the turnout percentage in Pennsylvania will be a closely watched statistic.

69.6

2024-11-04T23:34:00Z

2024-10-24T21:00:00Z

resolved

What percentage of the national popular vote will third party candidates hold by 6 pm on 11/07, in total?

As reported by the Associated Press.

1.5149

2024-10-31T22:00:00Z

2024-10-24T22:06:00Z

resolved

Will Kelly Ayotte win the New Hampshire gubernatorial election in 2024?

Kelly Ayotte, a former U.S. Senator from New Hampshire, is running in the 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. As a Republican candidate with a significant political background, she has a strong presence in the state’s political landscape. However, New Hampshire’s gubernatorial elections can be competitive, with potential shifts in voter preferences based on national and local issues. Ayotte’s campaign will be shaped by various factors, including her previous experience, her stance on key issues affecting New Hampshire, and the dynamics of the 2024 national election. The state's electorate has historically been known for being politically independent, with voters who are willing to swing between parties. This question asks whether Kelly Ayotte will secure victory in the 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election, with results expected shortly after Election Day.

yes

2024-11-05T23:02:00Z

2024-10-24T22:00:00Z

resolved

What will the margin (%) be in Rhode Island for the 2024 presidential election as of 2:00 PM EST on 11/7/2024?

Rhode Island, while historically a Democratic-leaning state in presidential elections, still represents an important indicator of broader political trends, especially in the New England region. In previous elections, Democratic candidates have won the state by significant margins, with the 2020 election seeing Joe Biden win by over 20 percentage points. However, the margin of victory can fluctuate depending on voter turnout, national political dynamics, and specific candidate appeal. This question asks what the margin of victory in Rhode Island will be as of 2:00 PM EST on November 7, 2024, when a significant portion of the votes will likely have been counted. The margin will be calculated as the percentage difference between the leading candidate (whether Democratic, Republican, or another party) and the second-placed candidate.

13.6

2024-11-05T22:58:00Z

2024-10-24T22:00:00Z

resolved

Will the 2024 US presidential election be called before 5:00 PM on 11/7/2024?

The Associated Press (AP) has historically been one of the most trusted and widely cited news organizations in the United States when it comes to officially declaring election results. In previous elections, the AP has made its call once a candidate has secured a sufficient number of electoral votes, based on reliable data from the states' vote counts. The timing of when AP calls the election can vary significantly. In 2020, due to an increase in mail-in voting and delays in counting, the AP called the race on Saturday, November 7, after several days of counting in key swing states. In contrast, in earlier elections, such as 2016, the race was called late in the evening on Election Day. This question asks whether the AP will officially declare a winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election before 5:00 PM EST on November 7, 2024. The increasing prevalence of early voting and the potential for tight races in battleground states may impact the timing of the result. If the race is too close to call in certain states or if there are delays in counting votes, this could extend the timeframe before a winner is announced.

yes

2024-11-05T22:55:00Z

2024-10-24T22:00:00Z

resolved

What is the probability that the Brown Daily Herald (BDH) will report on student response to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election (either negative or positive) by 2:00 PM EST on 11/7?

BDH is the Brown Daily Herald: https://www.browndailyherald.com/

yes

2024-11-05T23:00:00Z

2024-10-24T22:00:00Z

resolved

What is the probability that Jon Tester be re-elected to the Montana Senate?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/21/montana-senate-race-jon-tester-democrats

no

2024-11-07T19:20:00Z

2024-10-24T18:34:00Z

resolved

[DELETED QUESTION]

[DELETED QUESTION]

annulled

2024-10-24T22:43:45Z

2024-10-25T18:38:08Z

resolved

Before Election Day, will Kamala Harris appear on the Joe Rogan podcast?

Newsweek: [Joe Rogan Ridicules Donald Trump, Says Kamala Harris Is 'Nailing It'](https://www.newsweek.com/joe-rogan-donald-trump-kamala-harris-nailing-it-1955173)

no

2024-10-25T14:30:00Z

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

resolved

Before Election Day, will Donald Trump appear on the Call Her Daddy podcast?

Vulture: [Alex Cooper Invited Trump on Call Her Daddy, Too](https://www.vulture.com/article/call-her-daddy-kamala-harris-trump-invited.html)

no

2024-10-25T14:30:00Z

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will JD Vance cease to be Donald Trump's running mate before November 5, 2024?

On July 31, 1972, the Democratic nominee for vice president, Thomas Eagleton, withdrew his candidacy. Information had come out that in the 1960s he had received electrical shock treatments for what was described at the time as nervous exhaustion and depression. This is an example of the unknown unknowns that can change the course of history.

no

2024-10-25T14:30:00Z

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the S&P 500 index go up in November 2024?

The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.

yes

2024-10-25T14:30:00Z

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

resolved

On October 31, 2024, will VoteHub's Early Voting Tracker show Democrats having 2/3rd or higher of the mail and absentee ballots returned in Pennsylvania?

VoteHub [describes itself](https://about.votehub.us/) as "an election media organization that aims to provide top-notch, innovative coverage in three key areas: election reporting at a detailed level and in real time, public opinion survey aggregations, and analysis on election results and trends. We are nonpartisan and independent."

no

2024-10-25T14:30:00Z

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will rapper 50 Cent endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024?

According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent): "Jackson endorsed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the run-up for the 2016 U.S. presidential election.[242] He rejected an offer of $500,000 from the Trump campaign to make an appearance on the candidate's behalf.[243] However, he endorsed Donald Trump in 2020, due to his dislike of Joe Biden's tax plans.[244] A week later, he retracted his endorsement, saying on Twitter "F--k Donald Trump, I never liked him",[245] and endorsed Biden.[246]

no

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will South Dakota voters approve Constitutional Amendment G, which would provide for a state constitutional right to an abortion?

Ballotpedia: [South Dakota Constitutional Amendment G, Right to Abortion Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Dakota_Constitutional_Amendment_G,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024))

no

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani be re-elected in Arizona's 6th Congressional District in the 2024 election?

Ballotpedia: [Arizona's 6th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_6th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.

yes

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the USDA-posted recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before December 1, 2024?

According to [the NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/health/boars-head-deli-meat-listeria.html), "Genome sequencing tests by public health officials in New York and Maryland tied a strain of listeria found in Boar’s Head liverwurst to the bacteria from people who died or fell ill, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The company recalled its liverwurst late in July. Days later, Boar’s Head expanded the recall to cover more than 3,500 tons of meat — including ham and other items made in the Jarratt facility, one of several it operates. Production at the meat processing center in a rural part of the state has been temporarily stopped. Boar’s Head said it was disinfecting the plant and trying to determine the cause of the suspected contamination. Nine elderly people have died and dozens were hospitalized in the worst listeria outbreak in years. Public health experts have expressed worry that those numbers could increase, because symptoms can emerge weeks later. They also noted that consumers might not be aware of the recall, and some of the products do not expire until October."

yes

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 7 games?

The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.

no

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 6 games?

The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.

no

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 5 games?

The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.

yes

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 4 games?

The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.

no

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 7 games?

The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.

no

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 6 games?

The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.

no

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 5 games?

The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.

no

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 4 games?

The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.

no

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before January 1, 2025?

Reuters: [Intel's Dow status under threat as struggling chipmaker's shares plunge ](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/)

yes

2024-10-24T14:30:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the recreational marijuana amendment pass in the November 2024 election?

Florida voters are preparing to decide on the legalization of recreational marijuana through Amendment 3. Polls indicate strong public support, although opposition campaigns have intensified, particularly from Governor Ron DeSantis' administration​. The amendment requires at least 60% of votes to pass.

no

2024-11-04T23:41:00Z

2024-10-23T21:28:00Z

resolved

Will Don Gaetz win the Florida State Senate District 1 election in 2024?

Don Gaetz, a former Florida Senate President, is running for the State Senate District 1 seat against Lisa Newell, a political newcomer. Newell aims to give voters a fresh choice, citing frustrations with Gaetz’s long political career and concerns about representation​. This race draws attention as it involves key issues such as affordable housing, insurance reform, and school funding.

yes

2024-11-04T23:37:00Z

2024-10-23T21:28:00Z

resolved

Will the Schwab Trading Activity Index be lower for October 2024 than it was for September 2024?

[Schwab Trading Activity Index™: September Score Slides by Biggest Margin Since June ’22](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241007024576/en/): "The Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) decreased to 47.10 in September, down from its score of 53.16 in August. The only index of its kind, the STAX is a proprietary, behavior-based index that analyzes retail investor stock positions and trading activity from Schwab’s millions of client accounts to illuminate what investors were actually doing and how they were positioned in the markets each month."

no

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

2024-10-22T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?

Spirit Airlines, a deep discount airline which has been unprofitable from an operating standpoint since the start of the 2020 pandemic, recently had a buyout from JetBlue rejected by antitrust regulators. As of Q2 2024 results it continues to face declining revenues and negative earnings and cash flows.Spirit AIrlines recently had to [extend the deadline](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/spirit-airlines-shares-tick-down-on-deadline-extension-to-complete-debt-renegotiations-c5e29f61?mod=mw_quote_news) of some of its debt due.

yes

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

2024-10-22T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than 1.0 percentage points?

Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \). [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The "shy Trump voter hypothesis" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.

no

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

2024-10-22T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than or equal to 0 percentage points and less than or equal to 1.0 percentage points?

Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \). [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The "shy Trump voter hypothesis" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.

no

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

2024-10-22T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than -1.0 and less than 0 percentage points?

Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \). [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The "shy Trump voter hypothesis" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.

no

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

2024-10-22T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than or equal to -2.0 and less than or equal to -1.0 percentage points?

Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \). [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The "shy Trump voter hypothesis" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.

no

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

2024-10-22T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be less than -2.0 percentage points?

Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \). [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The "shy Trump voter hypothesis" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.

yes

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

2024-10-22T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election?

Botswana is among the most prosperous and stable countries in Africa. It has been ruled by the [Botswana Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Democratic_Party) since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. The party has continuously won [free and fair elections](https://www.voanews.com/a/botswana-to-hold-elections-october-30-as-president-masisi-seeks-2nd-term-/7770173.html), with former President Festus Mogae winning the [Ibrahim Prize for African Leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Prize), awarded only to leaders who respect democracy and the rule of law. The BDP's vote pluralities are often magnified into seat majorities by the first-past-the-post voting method. Challengers to the BDP's dominance include the [Umbrella for Democratic Change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umbrella_for_Democratic_Change) coalition as well as its former member the [Botswana Congress Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Congress_Party). The only [opinion poll results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Botswana_general_election#Opinion_polls) seem to come from Afrobarometer in 2022, showing the BDP's 22.3% trailing the UDC's 37.5%, with 7.9% for the BCP. Will Africa's longest democracy continue choosing the party that has always led it, or choose change this time around?

no

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

2024-10-22T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election?

Soon after taking office, Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba had the House of Representatives dissolved, leading to [new elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election). Ishiba hopes to [get a fresh mandate](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/japans-snap-election-why-ishibas-gamble-might-pay) after his predecessor Fumio Kishida resigned from the leadership of Japan's dominant Liberal Democratic Party due to a corruption scandal. At the time of dissolution, the LDP held 247 of the House's 465 seats. [Opinion polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Japanese_general_election) show the party with a comfortable lead at around 1/3 of the vote; the [parallel voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election#Electoral_system) used in Japan, where 5/8 of the seats are elected by "first past the post" and the remainder by proportional representation, might translate that vote into a majority depending on how it is distributed around the country.

no

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

2024-10-22T14:30:00Z

resolved

How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?

The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. In the past 5 years, State Department-approved arms sales per month have been as follows: | Month | Number | Month | Number | Month | Number | |:--------------:|:------:|:--------------:|:------:|:--------------:|:------:| | October 2024 | 9 | February 2023 | 5 | May 2021 | 3 | | September 2024 | 12 | December 2022 | 6 | April 2021 | 4 | | August 2024 | 22 | November 2022 | 8 | March 2021 | 6 | | July 2024 | 4 | October 2022 | 3 | February 2021 | 5 | | June 2024 | 7 | September 2022 | 5 | December 2020 | 15 | | May 2024 | 10 | August 2022 | 7 | November 2020 | 6 | | April 2024 | 7 | July 2022 | 13 | October 2020 | 11 | | March 2024 | 10 | June 2022 | 3 | September 2020 | 9 | | February 2024 | 8 | May 2022 | 4 | August 2020 | 2 | | January 2024 | 7 | April 2022 | 6 | July 2020 | 15 | | December 2023 | 17 | March 2022 | 4 | June 2020 | 2 | | November 2023 | 5 | February 2022 | 9 | May 2020 | 7 | | October 2023 | 7 | January 2022 | 5 | April 2020 | 8 | | September 2023 | 7 | December 2021 | 5 | March 2020 | 4 | | August 2023 | 5 | November 2021 | 1 | February 2020 | 5 | | July 2023 | 4 | October 2021 | 1 | January 2020 | 2 | | June 2023 | 12 | September 2021 | 2 | December 2019 | 1 | | May 2023 | 7 | August 2021 | 8 | November 2019 | 5 | | April 2023 | 6 | July 2021 | 3 | October 2019 | 8 | | March 2023 | 10 | June 2021 | 4 | September 2019 | 5 | The average per month is 6.7. The month of August 2024, with 22 sales, was the record highest since the monthly archive begin, in 2004.

above_upper_bound

2024-12-11T05:00:00Z

2024-10-30T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 205% before November 15, 2024?

In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm): >The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country's business--that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal. >For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. business, the percentage relationship line on the chart must keep going up and up. If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That won't happen. >For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%--as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000--you are playing with fire. As you can see, the ratio was recently 133%. Astute forecasters will note that Buffett's methodology slightly differs from the Longtermtrends website in that Buffett has the GNP as his denominator, while has Longtermtrends has GDP as its denominator.

yes

2024-10-22T14:30:00Z

2024-10-21T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will US airline passenger volume for the Veterans Day weekend of 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA?

Veterans Day in the US is [federal holiday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_holidays_in_the_United_States) and is a celebrated on November 11th, regardless of the day of the week upon which it falls. In 2023 it fell on a Saturday, and in 2024 it will fall on a Monday.

yes

2024-10-22T14:30:00Z

2024-10-21T14:30:00Z

resolved

On October 31, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?

Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. On May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.

no

2024-10-22T14:30:00Z

2024-10-21T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on October 30, 2024?

According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX), VIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge." This question specificially looks at the 3-month version of the Vix.

no

2024-10-22T14:30:00Z

2024-10-21T14:30:00Z

resolved

[Short Fuse] Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election?

Botswana is among the most prosperous and stable countries in Africa. It has been ruled by the [Botswana Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Democratic_Party) since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. The party has continuously won [free and fair elections](https://www.voanews.com/a/botswana-to-hold-elections-october-30-as-president-masisi-seeks-2nd-term-/7770173.html), with former President Festus Mogae winning the [Ibrahim Prize for African Leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Prize), awarded only to leaders who respect democracy and the rule of law. The BDP's vote pluralities are often magnified into seat majorities by the first-past-the-post voting method. Challengers to the BDP's dominance include the [Umbrella for Democratic Change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umbrella_for_Democratic_Change) coalition as well as its former member the [Botswana Congress Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Congress_Party). The only [opinion poll results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Botswana_general_election#Opinion_polls) seem to come from Afrobarometer in 2022, showing the BDP's 22.3% trailing the UDC's 37.5%, with 7.9% for the BCP. Will Africa's longest democracy continue choosing the party that has always led it, or choose change this time around?

no

2024-10-30T04:00:00Z

2024-10-21T22:29:00Z

resolved

[Short Fuse] Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election?

Soon after taking office, Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba had the House of Representatives dissolved, leading to [new elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election). Ishiba hopes to [get a fresh mandate](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/japans-snap-election-why-ishibas-gamble-might-pay) after his predecessor Fumio Kishida resigned from the leadership of Japan's dominant Liberal Democratic Party due to a corruption scandal. At the time of dissolution, the LDP held 247 of the House's 465 seats. [Opinion polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Japanese_general_election) show the party with a comfortable lead at around 1/3 of the vote; the [parallel voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election#Electoral_system) used in Japan, where 5/8 of the seats are elected by "first past the post" and the remainder by proportional representation, might translate that vote into a majority depending on how it is distributed around the country.

no

2024-10-26T21:00:00Z

2024-10-21T22:15:00Z

resolved

[Short fuse] Who will win the 2024 Uruguayan Presidential election?

Uruguay is holding [general elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Uruguayan_general_election) in 2024, the ninth since redemocratization in the 1980s. The Constitution prevents the re-election of incumbent President Luis Lacalle Pou; his National Party has nominated Álvaro Delgado as its candidate, facing off against the Broad Front's Yamandú Orsi and the Colorado Party Andrés Ojeda. Uruguayan voters cast a single ballot that counts for electing the Chamber of Representatives, the Senate and the President. For the executive office, there is a runoff four weeks later if no candidate wins a majority in the first round.

Yamandú Orsi

2024-11-24T00:00:00Z

2024-10-22T09:00:00Z

resolved

Will Donald Trump concede if he loses the 2024 presidential election?

Donald Trump has maintained for the past four years that he won the 2020 election despite the fact that election officials and Congress certified Joe Biden's victory in that race. A recent [poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/10/most-voters-say-harris-will-concede-and-trump-wont-if-defeated-in-the-election/) found that only one in four Americans expect Trump to concede if he loses the 2024 election. Trump supporters are split on this question, with 46 percent saying that he would concede if he loses and 50 percent saying he would not.

annulled

2024-10-23T13:00:00Z

2024-10-17T14:24:00Z

resolved

Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?

[The Joe Rogan Experience](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Joe_Rogan_Experience) (JRE) is a podcast hosted by [Joe Rogan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Rogan) a comedian, actor, and commentator. Joe Rogan's [website](https://www.joerogan.com/) describes the JRE as: >a long form conversation hosted by comedian Joe Rogan with friends and guests that have included comedians, actors, musicians, MMA fighters, authors, artists, and beyond. The JRE has been very popular ranking as the most popular podcast of the year on Spotify for the years 2021, [2022](https://variety.com/2022/digital/news/joe-rogan-spotify-top-podcast-2022-1235444743/), and [2023](https://variety.com/2023/digital/news/spotify-top-podcasts-2023-list-joe-rogan-deal-renewal-1235809680/). Its listeners are disproportionally [young men](https://business.yougov.com/content/47483-whos-listening-to-the-joe-rogan-experience-men-mostly), and it has developed a mixed reputation, [criticized by some](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/10/opinions/joe-rogan-myth-spotify-joseph/index.html) for peddling conspiracies and offensive content, and praised by others for a commitment to [free speech](https://theoccidentalnews.com/opinions/2019/10/21/joe-rogans-podcast-reiterates-the-importance-of-free-speech/2898978) through talking openly about controversial issues and for the breadth of topics covered and the [curiosity](https://danielmiessler.com/p/explaining-the-popularity-of-joe-rogans-podcast/) of its host. On October 15, 2024, news sources [reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-could-join-podcaster-joe-rogan-an-interview-sources-2024-10-15/) that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris may be considering an appearance on the show in a bid to appeal to young men, citing unnamed sources.

no

2024-10-27T02:00:00Z

2024-10-16T15:03:00Z

resolved

Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before November 1, 2024?

On July 31, 1972, the Democratic nominee for vice president, Thomas Eagleton, withdrew his candidacy. Information had come out that in the 1960s he had received electrical shock treatments for what was described at the time as nervous exhaustion and depression. This is an example of the unknown unknowns that can change the course of history.

no

2024-10-21T14:30:00Z

2024-10-15T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?

[Erik ten Hag](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_ten_Hag)'s tenure as Manchester United's manager, which began in 2022, has seen a mix of highs and lows. After a successful first season where the team secured a top-four finish and [won the EFL Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_EFL_Cup_final), United's form in the 2024/25 season has sharply declined. The club has experienced its worst-ever start to a Premier League season, [sitting 14th in the table](https://www.manutd.com/en/matches/league-table) as of October 13th, and they have struggled to score goals, leading to significant pressure on Ten Hag. In an October meeting, it [was decided](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/erik-ten-hag-break-golden-060000505.html) that Erik Ten Hag will continue in Manchester United for the time being. However, the next few games will be crucial and they might determine whether Ten Hag will be fired during the next international break of November 11-19.

yes

2024-10-28T06:50:00Z

2024-10-16T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?

The United Kingdom has seen several MPs suspended from their parties, resign, or change political allegiance in recent years due to various factors such as political scandals, internal party conflicts, or shifting personal or ideological stances. Since the July 4, 2024 general election, seven Labour MPs [were suspended](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c978m6z3egno) for voting against the party on an amendment to scrap the two-child benefit cap, and one [resigned](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/mp-rosie-duffield-resigns-labour-keir-starmer-zxm6h8lzq) over the so-called [freebies controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Labour_Party_freebies_controversy).

yes

2024-10-27T17:15:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?

On October 20, alongside [presidential elections](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22788/moldovan-election-winner-2024/), Moldova will hold a referendum. If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments from derailing the ongoing accession process which the country, one of Europe's poorest, initiated simultaneously with Ukraine. The campaign, and the overall strengthening of ties with Europe, are being [interfered with by the Kremlin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/12/moldova-fears-kremlin-fixing-eu-referendum-russia). 1,500 Russian troops still occupy the Transnistria region of the former Soviet republic, where an estimated €100M has been funneled to fund the vote-buying scheme against the referendum. In order to amend the Constitution, the referendum must have a majority of "Yes" votes, which is the object of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28851/yes-wins-moldova-eu-referendum/).

yes

2024-10-20T01:00:00Z

2024-10-16T11:00:00Z

resolved

[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?

On October 20, alongside [presidential elections](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22788/moldovan-election-winner-2024/), Moldova will hold a referendum. If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments from derailing the ongoing accession process which the country, one of Europe's poorest, initiated simultaneously with Ukraine. The campaign, and the overall strengthening of ties with Europe, are being [interfered with by the Kremlin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/12/moldova-fears-kremlin-fixing-eu-referendum-russia). 1,500 Russian troops still occupy the Transnistria region of the former Soviet republic, where an estimated €100M has been funneled to fund the vote-buying scheme against the referendum. In order to amend the Constitution, the referendum must reach a turnout of 33%, which is the object of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28852/moldova-eu-referendum-valid-turnout/).

yes

2024-10-20T01:00:00Z

2024-10-16T14:30:00Z

resolved

Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?

The [World Chess Championship 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) match between the reigning world champion Ding Liren (Rating: 2728 as of 1 Nov 2024) and the challenger Gukesh Dommaraju (Rating: 2783 as of 1 Nov 2024) is set to take place between 25 November and 13 December 2024, in Singapore. As of November 1st, 2024, Ding Liren is [23rd in the world](https://2700chess.com/), but was in the top 5 for 6 consecutive years, reaching as high as #2, with his top rating being the 12th highest in the history of chess. He also [used to have](https://en.chessbase.com/post/ding-liren-profile-2024-fide) the longest unbeaten streak of 100 games, until Carsen surpassed it. Gukesh D has his own [set of achievements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gukesh_Dommaraju), being the third-youngest grandmaster in history, the third-youngest to reach a chess rating of 2700, the youngest to reach a rating of 2750, the youngest Candidates Tournament winner and the youngest contender to compete for the World Championship. The match will be best of 14 games; a score of at least 7½ would win the world championship. If the score is equal after 14 games, tiebreak games with faster time controls will be played. In chess a win is 1 point and a draw is ½ point with a high tendency towards draws at the highest level. The time control for each game in the classical portion of the match is 120 minutes per side for the first 40 moves and 30 minutes for the rest of the game, with a 30-second increment per move starting with move 41.

no

2024-12-01T13:15:00Z

2024-11-07T15:30:00Z

resolved

What is the probability that a Westbound Amtrak Sunset Limited train reports a delay of more than 4 hours upon arriving at its terminus before the 10:00 AM on 10/24?

https://juckins.net/amtrak_status/archive/html/history.php?train_num=1&station=LAX&date_start=09%2F9%2F2024&date_end=10%2F10%2F2024&df1=1&df2=1&df3=1&df4=1&df5=1&df6=1&df7=1&sort=schAr&sort_dir=DESC&co=gt&limit_mins=&dfon=1

no

2024-10-20T23:02:00Z

2024-10-10T23:02:00Z

resolved

How many western teams will be in the top 8 of the League of Legends Worlds 2024 Tournament? (Western teams are defined as teams in the LEC or LCS regions)

Western teams kinda suck

1

2024-10-12T05:00:00Z

2024-10-10T23:00:00Z

resolved

Odds Dan wins in fantasy this week (week of 10/7).

dan really thought the bills would win...

no

2024-10-12T14:00:00Z

2024-10-10T22:54:00Z

resolved

Playboy Carti drops album by Oct 24.

....

annulled

2024-10-15T18:54:00Z

2024-10-11T22:53:56Z

resolved

How many birbs will be released by 10:00 AM on 10/24

birbs.

6-9

2024-10-23T22:50:00Z

2024-10-10T22:51:00Z

resolved

Probability that CPax sends an email from [email protected] by the next meeting (10/24)?

It has to be from that specific email address!

no

2024-10-17T16:00:00Z

2024-10-10T22:49:00Z

resolved

Probability APMA 1650 (Amelia Culiuc) exam results gets released by 10/24?

APMA 1650 is a big class...

yes

2024-10-20T22:46:00Z

2024-10-01T22:48:00Z

resolved

Probability of any police being called to end a student protest by OCT 24th

Protests?

no

2024-10-20T22:44:00Z

2024-10-10T22:44:00Z

resolved

Will Israel strike Iranian nuclear facilities before the 2024 US general election?

As the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, foreign policy analysts are now speculating about whether Israel will decide to strike Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities in an effort to set back Tehran's nuclear program. Israel has long wanted to carry out such an attack, but the US has reportedly [tried](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/us/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-facilities-strikes.html) to dissuade its partner from doing so.

no

2024-11-05T07:01:00Z

2024-10-08T14:51:00Z

resolved

Will Israel strike Iranian nuclear facilities before the 2024 US general election?

As the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, foreign policy analysts are now speculating about whether Israel will decide to strike Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities in an effort to set back Tehran's nuclear program. Israel has long wanted to carry out such an attack, but the US has reportedly [tried](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/us/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-facilities-strikes.html) to dissuade its partner from doing so.

annulled

2024-10-14T12:53:00Z

2024-10-08T14:43:00Z

resolved

Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?

Many children wish for a white Christmas, i.e. snow on the days 24th or 25th December. Transit operators and homeless people enjoy it less. It is an important cultural event around the northern Atlantic, though; hence this question! Cultural note: The majority of inhabitants of Instanbul do not celebrate Christmas at all. Neither do all Russians celebrate Christmas in December. These differences are irrelevant for the question, which is focused on Christmas as celebrated by most cultures around the northern Atlantic. ---- This question uses METAR data as the source for convenience, because it provides a standardised view into actual observed weather at diverse geographical locations. Here's an example of a METAR report: > METAR UUEE 050800Z 28003MPS 240V320 7000 -SN SCT006 M11/M13 Q1018 R24L/490336 R24C/490336 NOSIG= The standard allows for many optional components, but common components are - The reporting station (in this case UUEE, which is a Moscow airport) comes after the preamble - the day and time of observation (in this case 050800Z meaning day 5 of the month, at 8 o'clock UTC) - wind speed and direction (in this case 28003MPS meaning 280°, 3 m/s) - visibility (in this case 7000 meaning 7000 metres) - cloud cover (in this case SCT006 meaning scattered at 600 feet) - temperature (in this case M11/M13 meaning temperature of -11 °C) - air pressure (in this case Q1018 meaning 1018 millibar) - runway information, starting with R - a near-term forecast (in this case NOSIG meaning no significant change expected) But! Critically for this question, there are also indications of precipitation. In the example above, that's "-SN" for "light snow". Here are some other examples of reports indicating snow: > METAR ESSA 270120Z 01005KT 9999 -SN SCT007 BKN009 OVC046 M05/M06 Q1010 RESN BECMG BKN020=` RESN means "recent snow" > METAR ESNU 252220Z 33009KT 9999 SG FEW018 OVC055 M03/M05 Q1003= SG means "snow grains" > METAR EFOU 041820Z AUTO 14003KT 9999 -SHSN SCT044 M13/M15 Q1013= -SHSN means "light snow shower" For decoding reports, [the web tool by Flight Plan Database](https://flightplandatabase.com/METAR) can be a helpful assistant.

no

2024-12-15T23:00:00Z

2024-10-30T14:30:00Z

resolved

Anitta será indicada ao Grammy Awards 2025 em uma categoria principal?

Anitta ganhou o Grammy Latino de Album do Ano em 2024 [Grammy Latino 2024](https://www.grammy.com/news/2024-latin-grammys-nominations-record-of-the-year).

no

2024-11-08T07:59:00Z

2024-10-07T17:58:00Z

resolved

[Short Fuse] Will the vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier's government pass in the French National Assembly?

Prime Minister of France Michel Barnier, from the Republicans party, faces a [no-confidence vote](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/french-left-moves-no-confidence-vote-against-barnier-with-little-hope-it-passes/) filed on October 4th by the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP). The snap legislative elections held on June 30 and July 7 saw the far-right National Rally (RN) win a plurality of votes; however, tactical voting by supporters of President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Renaissance and NFP denied Marine Le Pen's RN a plurality of seats, with 1/3 of total seats going to the left-wing bloc. NFP claims this gave them a mandate to implement their full program, which President Macron disagreed with, refusing to appoint the Front's preferred Prime Ministerial candidate Lucie Castets without some compromise with the center's positions. ([Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/08/27/french-left-denounces-denial-of-democracy-after-macron-refuses-to-appoint-its-candidate-as-pm_6722295_7.html)) Subsequent talks between the Élysée Palace and each parliamentary party led to the appointment of center-right Michel Barnier, formerly the chief Brexit negotiator on the EU side, as Prime Minister. The semi-presidential system in France does not require an explicit vote of confidence in a new occupant of Hôtel Matignon, but they can be forced to resign by a vote of no confidence that passes in the National Assembly. The vote against Mr Barnier will likely take place on October 8.

no

2024-10-08T05:30:00Z

2024-10-06T13:40:00Z

resolved

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on November 8, 2024?

The [S&P 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500), also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy. The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers. Recently, the FOMC made a major decision to cut interest rates by 0.5 basis points, a larger reduction than the 0.25 basis points many expected, leading to a nearly $100 increase in the value of the S&P 500 since the meeting on September 18. This rate cut reflects the FOMC's effort to respond to inflationary pressures and economic conditions, signalling further potential adjustments. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled before the end of the year, on November 6, where further rate cuts may be considered. Further impacting financial markets is the [U.S. Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Whether [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) or [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) wins the election is expected to have significant implications for the U.S. economy and investor sentiment, potentially influencing the price trajectory of the S&P 500. With the outcome of the election and potential Fed rate cuts on the horizon at the FOMC’s next scheduled to be held on November 6-7, there is considerable uncertainty in predicting the S&P 500's value leading up to, and on November 8, 2024. --------------------------- *Question description adapted from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22428/sp-500-index-close-on-may-1-2024/) using ChatGPT*

5995.54

2024-11-07T23:59:00Z

2024-10-01T13:20:00Z

resolved

Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?

China's [recent announcement](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/chinas-antimony-export-controls-rattle-the-tungsten-industry.html) of export controls on antimony, effective September 15, 2024, has raised concerns among industry insiders about the country's willingness to leverage its dominance in the global supply chain of critical metals. Antimony, used in bullets, nuclear weapons production, and lead-acid batteries, is just one of many metals that China has a significant share of global production. The announcement follows China's previous export controls [on graphite](https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-use-graphite-export-restrictions-encourages-diversification) in 2023 and restrictions on germanium and gallium, two metals used in chipmaking, in response to U.S. efforts to limit China's access to high-end semiconductors. These moves have led some industry experts to speculate that China may soon impose export controls on other critical metals, such as tungsten, which is nearly as hard as a diamond and used in weapons, semiconductors, and industrial cutting machines. China's actions are seen by some as retaliatory measures against what it perceives as intrusions into its national interests. As a result, companies in the U.S. and elsewhere are exploring alternatives to reduce their reliance on China for critical metals. However, it remains to be seen whether China will follow through with a blanket implementation of the latest export controls or announce restrictions on additional metals in the near future.

yes

2024-11-15T21:00:00Z

2024-10-23T14:30:00Z

resolved

When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?

[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. SpaceX [describes Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as "the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable." So far Starship has undergone [five "integrated flight tests"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration. IFT-5 was expected to take place in August, 2024, but it was delayed by the FAA until October 13. It was the first launch that attempted and succeeded at [catching the Super Heavy booster](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-5-launch-super-heavy-booster-catch-success-video) using the utilised the Orbital Launch Mount tower.

2024-11-19 22:00:00+00:00

2024-11-19T22:00:00Z

2024-10-16T14:30:00Z

resolved

What party will win the most seats in the 2025 Republic of Ireland Parliamentary election?

In the [2020 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Irish_general_election), citizens of the Republic of Ireland elected the most fragmented Parliament in the history of the State, with the largest party, [Fianna Fáil](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fianna_F%C3%A1il) (FF), winning just 38 out of the 160 seats. [Sinn Féin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinn_F%C3%A9in) (SF) won 37, its best result ever, and surpassed Prime Minister Leo Varadkar's [Fine Gael](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine_Gael) (FG) with 35. Having ruled out a coalition with SF, both FF and FG managed to form a majority with the Greens' twelve seats. Being evenly matched, the two largest parties agreed that FF's leader Micheál Martin would hold the Prime Ministership for the first half of the legislative term, with Varadkar returning in December 2022; he has recently been replaced by PM Simon Harris. The next [Dáil Éireann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann), the directly-elected lower house of Parliament, will be the Republic's largest-ever, with 174 members. Ireland uses the [single transferable vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_vote), with Dáil constituencies ranging from 3 to 5 seats.

Fianna Fáil

2024-12-02T17:15:00Z

2024-10-01T18:23:00Z

resolved

[Short Fuse] When will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) strike end for the Port of New York and New Jersey?

The current labor agreement between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and US port operators on the East Coast and Gulf Coast [is set to expire](https://www.huschblackwell.com/newsandinsights/ila-labor-agreement-set-to-expire-strike-looms) on September 30, 2024. The ILA has announced its intent to strike if no new agreement is reached by October 1, which could significantly disrupt U.S. supply chains and global trade. These ports handle approximately 43% of U.S. imports, and a strike would significantly disrupt retail, manufacturing, and other industries, potentially causing weeks-long backlogs. Of the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, the [Port of New York and New Jersey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_New_York_and_New_Jersey#Container_terminals) is by far the biggest, handling [7.8 million TEUs in 2023](https://www.panynj.gov/port/en/our-port/facts-and-figures.html), which is [about 2/5th the total East Coast and Gulf Coast container volume or about 1/6th the total US volume](https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/largest-us-ports-by-volume-month-coast-cargo-trends/693493/). Key issues in the negotiations include wage increases and opposition to port automation. The ILA claims that wages have not kept pace with inflation or rising corporate profits, particularly those of ocean carriers. Businesses have already begun taking preemptive measures, such as diverting shipments to the West Coast, though [West Coast Ports are already at capacity](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-27/cargo-carriers-fear-port-strike-will-paralyze-half-of-us-trade). A strike could also create widespread container shortages, increase shipping costs, and delay critical imports from Europe, Latin America, and other regions. The Biden administration could [invoke](https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1838670975610888411) the [Taft–Hartley Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taft–Hartley_Act) to block the strike, but according to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/biden-wont-block-potential-strike-east-coast-ports-administration-official-says-2024-09-17/) they do not intend to do so.

2024-10-03 17:30:00+00:00

2024-10-03T22:30:00Z

2024-10-02T11:29:00Z

resolved

What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?

As of September 26, 2024, US national average gas prices [were](https://gasprices.aaa.com/) $3.220, down almost 62 cents a gallon or 16% from year-ago prices. According to [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/gas-prices-could-break-below-three-dollars-before-election-1957121): >Gas prices could hit below $3 before this year's presidential election on November 5 as demand continues to decline and companies turn to their winter fuel grades. >Thompson added that prices will likely fall as many companies switch from summer driving grade gasoline to the winter blend, which is cheaper to produce. >Because Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, is currently in office alongside President Joe Biden, the lower gas prices could lend Democrats some support as voters prepare for this year's election. Republicans, like former President Donald Trump, the GOP's presidential nominee, have long criticized the Biden administration's response to the inflation Americans are currently facing on everything from gas to groceries to housing. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has a database of historical gas price data since 1993, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=w). Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy and co-host of its [Over a Barrel](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/over-a-barrel/id1671666785) podcast, recently [tweeted](https://x.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/1834983511599591756), "The national average price of gasoline has fallen to $3.187/gal, according to GasBuddy. We continue to track toward the $2.99 mark, something that we expect will happen in October!" Additionally, a AAA spokesperson [told ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/gas-prices-plummeting-experts-explain/story?id=113751441) he also expects the national average price to fall below $3 a gallon sometime in October. Additionally, crude oil prices, which are [about 50%](https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/energy-primers/gas-prices-explained) of gas prices, [are down](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil) from $90.277 (Brent prices) on September 28, 2023, to $71.384 on September 26, 2024, a drop of 20.9% year over year.

3.102

2024-11-05T04:59:00Z

2024-10-08T14:30:00Z

resolved

Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?

As of 2024, the [world chess champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) is determined by a match of 14 games between the current world champion and the winner of the Candidates tournament. In the previous world chess championship in 2023, Ding Liren defeated Ian Nepomniachtchi in a nerve-wracking match. The match featured 6 decisive classical games over the board, more than all such matches since 1996, and was decided in the last minutes of the fourth tie-break game. Since then Ding Liren [has been facing emotional struggles](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/its-just-the-worst-version-of-me-ding-liren-on-his-struggles-101717609530076.html) and has been performing significantly below his usual level, losing 60 more than Elo rating and reaching 2728 [as of September 2024](https://2700chess.com/players/ding_liren), his worst rating since 2014. The challenger and winner of the 2024 Candidates tournament is Gukesh Dommaraju. Gukesh is 18 years old and the youngest person to ever win a Candidates tournament. His rating as of September 2024 is 2794, after achieving the second highest performance rating of all time in the 2024 Olympiad. The world chess championship is scheduled to take place between November 25 and December 13, 2024 in Singapore. It will consist of 14 classical games of alternating colours, with a time control of 120 minutes per side for the first 40 moves and 30 minutes for the rest of the game, with a 30-second increment per move starting with move 41. If at the end of the 14 games the score is tied, it will be followed by 4 rapid games to determine the winner. The full details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024#Match_regulations).

Gukesh Dommaraju

2024-12-12T05:01:00Z

2024-10-30T14:30:00Z

resolved

Who will be the new leader of PASOK after the elections of October 2024? | Ποιος θα είναι ο καινούργιος αρχηγός του ΠΑΣΟΚ μετά τις εκλογές του Οκτωβρίου του 2024;

The PASOK leadership elections are set for October 6, 2024, with a potential second round on October 13, if no candidate secures a majority. Six prominent candidates are featured, reflecting the internal diversity and strategic visions within the party: Nikos Androulakis (current PASOK leader): Androulakis, 45, seeks re-election after facing criticism for not overtaking SYRIZA in recent elections. While PASOK's vote share increased to 12.79%, it failed to surpass SYRIZA, leaving some party members disappointed with the pace of the party’s recovery. Despite this, Androulakis still enjoys significant support and aims to consolidate his leadership through renewed focus on expanding PASOK’s voter base. Haris Doukas (Mayor of Athens): Doukas, 44, is a rising political star after winning Athens' mayoralty with support from SYRIZA voters. His bid for PASOK leadership surprised many, as he only recently assumed office. Doukas positions himself as a reformist who seeks to appeal to a broader electorate, though some criticize his ambition to hold dual leadership roles​. Pavlos Geroulanos (Former Minister and MP): Geroulanos, 58, comes from a prominent political family and has served in various government roles, including as Minister of Culture. Known for his moderate approach, he is campaigning for the party’s “rebirth” and a return to the core values of social democracy. His focus is on unifying the party and bringing back disillusioned voters. Anna Diamantopoulou (Former EU Commissioner): Diamantopoulou, 65, is seen as a strong contender who could attract centrist voters and those who previously supported PASOK but shifted to the conservative New Democracy. Her experience in both national and European politics gives her a broad appeal, though critics point to her time away from active involvement in PASOK as a potential drawback​. Michalis Katrinis (MP): Katrinis is a current member of parliament who has voiced concerns about PASOK's organizational model. He advocates for internal reforms and increased grassroots involvement, positioning himself as a candidate focused on modernizing the party's structure. Nadia Giannakopoulou (MP): Giannakopoulou has also expressed interest in the leadership, emphasizing the need for PASOK to reconnect with its core voters and improve its internal governance. Her platform centers around rejuvenating the party’s political strategy to address contemporary issues​. These candidates reflect the different ideological and strategic paths that PASOK could take, as the party seeks to redefine its role in Greek politics following the challenges of recent elections and the turmoil in rival center-left party SYRIZA. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Οι εκλογές ηγεσίας του ΠΑΣΟΚ τον Οκτώβριο του 2024 περιλαμβάνουν έξι υποψήφιους, που αντικατοπτρίζουν την εσωτερική ποικιλία και τις στρατηγικές απόψεις του κόμματος: Νίκος Ανδρουλάκης (νυν αρχηγός του ΠΑΣΟΚ): Ο Ανδρουλάκης, 45 ετών, επιδιώκει επανεκλογή μετά από κριτική λόγω της αποτυχίας να ξεπεράσει τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ στις πρόσφατες εκλογές. Παρά την αύξηση του ποσοστού του ΠΑΣΟΚ στο 12,79%, η αδυναμία να ξεπεράσει τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ απογοήτευσε κάποια μέλη του κόμματος. Ωστόσο, ο Ανδρουλάκης διατηρεί σημαντική υποστήριξη και στοχεύει να εδραιώσει την ηγεσία του μέσα από μια ανανέωση της βάσης ψηφοφόρων. Χάρης Δούκας (Δήμαρχος Αθηνών): Ο Δούκας, 44 ετών, θεωρείται ανερχόμενος πολιτικός, έχοντας κερδίσει τη δημαρχία Αθηνών με την υποστήριξη ψηφοφόρων του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ. Η υποψηφιότητά του για την ηγεσία του ΠΑΣΟΚ προκάλεσε έκπληξη, καθώς μόλις ανέλαβε τη δημαρχία. Ο Δούκας παρουσιάζεται ως μεταρρυθμιστής που επιδιώκει να προσελκύσει ένα ευρύτερο εκλογικό σώμα, αν και κάποιοι επικρίνουν την προσπάθειά του να κατέχει δύο ηγετικούς ρόλους ταυτόχρονα​. Πάυλος Γερουλάνος (Πρώην Υπουργός και Βουλευτής): Ο Γερουλάνος, 58 ετών, προέρχεται από μια σημαντική πολιτική οικογένεια και έχει υπηρετήσει σε διάφορες κυβερνητικές θέσεις, συμπεριλαμβανομένης της θέσης του Υπουργού Πολιτισμού. Είναι γνωστός για την μετριοπαθή προσέγγισή του και προωθεί την "αναγέννηση" του κόμματος, με στόχο την ενότητα και την επανασύνδεση με απογοητευμένους ψηφοφόρους​. Άννα Διαμαντοπούλου (πρώην Επίτροπος της ΕΕ): Η Διαμαντοπούλου, 65 ετών, θεωρείται ισχυρή υποψήφια που μπορεί να προσελκύσει κεντρώους ψηφοφόρους και όσους προηγουμένως υποστήριξαν το ΠΑΣΟΚ αλλά στράφηκαν στη Νέα Δημοκρατία. Η εμπειρία της στην εθνική και ευρωπαϊκή πολιτική της δίνει ευρεία απήχηση, αν και κάποιοι επικρίνουν την απουσία της από την ενεργή συμμετοχή στο ΠΑΣΟΚ τα τελευταία χρόνια​. Μιχάλης Κατρίνης (Βουλευτής): Ο Κατρίνης είναι εν ενεργεία βουλευτής που έχει εκφράσει ανησυχίες για το οργανωτικό μοντέλο του ΠΑΣΟΚ. Υποστηρίζει την ανάγκη για εσωτερικές μεταρρυθμίσεις και αυξημένη συμμετοχή των μελών, παρουσιάζοντας τον εαυτό του ως έναν υποψήφιο που επικεντρώνεται στον εκσυγχρονισμό του κόμματος​. Νάντια Γιαννακοπούλου (Βουλευτής): Η Γιαννακοπούλου έχει επίσης εκφράσει ενδιαφέρον για την ηγεσία, δίνοντας έμφαση στην ανάγκη επανασύνδεσης του ΠΑΣΟΚ με τους βασικούς του ψηφοφόρους και στη βελτίωση της εσωτερικής διακυβέρνησης του κόμματος​. Αυτοί οι υποψήφιοι αντικατοπτρίζουν τις διαφορετικές ιδεολογικές και στρατηγικές πορείες που θα μπορούσε να ακολουθήσει το ΠΑΣΟΚ, καθώς προσπαθεί να επαναπροσδιορίσει τον ρόλο του στην ελληνική πολιτική σκηνή μετά τα αποτελέσματα των εκλογών και την αναταραχή στο αντίπαλο κεντροαριστερό κόμμα ΣΥΡΙΖΑ.

Nikos Androulakis

2024-10-13T19:22:00Z

2024-10-05T14:00:00Z

resolved