Datasets:

rich123

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sfbm_clean

like 0

Will the cheapest new Tesla Model Y be listed as under $44,990 on December 30, 2024?

As of December 11, 2024, this price was $44,990

no

2024-12-13T15:30:00Z

2024-12-12T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Grouse Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 20, 2024?

Vancouver Sun February 2024: ['Feels like a ripoff': Ski pass holders expecting discounts as some B.C. mountains remain closed](https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ski-pass-holders-expecting-discounts-as-bc-mountains-remain-closed)

yes

2024-12-12T15:30:00Z

2024-12-11T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the United States have 100.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?

[Almost half of the US is experiencing drought. How that can affect the food industry.](https://abcnews.go.com/US/half-us-experiencing-drought-affect-food-industry/story?id=115102946)

yes

2024-12-12T15:30:00Z

2024-12-11T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Homestead, scheduled to open December 20, 2024, exceed $7,000,000?

Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking): >Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. >Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on. >Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.

no

2024-12-12T15:30:00Z

2024-12-11T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

yes

2024-12-11T15:30:00Z

2024-12-10T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Virginia Beach, VA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 4.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

yes

2024-12-11T15:30:00Z

2024-12-10T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?

[Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/): > On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing bill. In response, the left-wing opposition put forward a no-confidence motion [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/): > French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday [December 4] on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone's second-largest economy. > Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.

yes

2024-12-07T15:30:00Z

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Joe Biden sign 4 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?

According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): >In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation) In his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and). Since becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month: | Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 | | February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 | | March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 | | April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 | | May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 | | June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 | | July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 | | August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 | | September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 | | October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 | | November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 | | December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 | | Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 | | February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 | | March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 | | April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 | | May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 | | June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 | | July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 | | August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 | | September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 | | October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 | | November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 | | December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |

yes

2024-12-07T15:30:00Z

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Joe Biden sign 3 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?

According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): >In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation) In his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and). Since becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month: | Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 | | February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 | | March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 | | April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 | | May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 | | June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 | | July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 | | August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 | | September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 | | October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 | | November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 | | December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 | | Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 | | February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 | | March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 | | April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 | | May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 | | June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 | | July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 | | August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 | | September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 | | October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 | | November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 | | December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |

yes

2024-12-07T15:30:00Z

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Joe Biden sign 2 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?

According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order): >In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the United States Constitution gives presidents broad executive and enforcement authority to use their discretion to determine how to enforce the law or to otherwise manage the resources and staff of the executive branch. The ability to make such orders is also based on expressed or implied Acts of Congress that delegate to the president some degree of discretionary power (delegated legislation) In his final months in office, Joe Biden has signed executive orders on [gun violence](https://baystatebanner.com/2024/10/02/biden-signs-executive-orders-on-gun-violence/) and [labor standards](https://natlawreview.com/article/president-biden-signs-executive-order-directing-agencies-prioritize-pro-union-and). Since becoming President, Biden has issued executive orders at the follow count per month: | Month | 2021 | Month | 2023 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2021 | 25 | January 2023 | 0 | | February 2021 | 9 | February 2023 | 1 | | March 2021 | 3 | March 2023 | 2 | | April 2021 | 5 | April 2023 | 4 | | May 2021 | 5 | May 2023 | 2 | | June 2021 | 5 | June 2023 | 2 | | July 2021 | 1 | July 2023 | 3 | | August 2021 | 3 | August 2023 | 2 | | September 2021 | 9 | September 2023 | 3 | | October 2021 | 3 | October 2023 | 1 | | November 2021 | 4 | November 2023 | 1 | | December 2021 | 6 | December 2023 | 3 | | Month | 2022 | Month | 2024 | |-------------------|------|------------------|------| | January 2022 | 1 | January 2024 | 0 | | February 2022 | 3 | February 2024 | 3 | | March 2022 | 4 | March 2024 | 4 | | April 2022 | 3 | April 2024 | 1 | | May 2022 | 2 | May 2024 | 0 | | June 2022 | 1 | June 2024 | 1 | | July 2022 | 3 | July 2024 | 2 | | August 2022 | 2 | August 2024 | 0 | | September 2022 | 4 | September 2024 | 1 | | October 2022 | 4 | October 2024 | 0 | | November 2022 | 0 | November 2024 | 1 | | December 2022 | 2 | December 2024 | ? |

yes

2024-12-07T15:30:00Z

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Emmanuel Macron be President of France on December 31, 2024?

[French President Emmanuel Macron says he will NOT resign as crisis engulfs his Government after extremist parties were accused of playing 'Russian roulette' with the country's future](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14154367/french-president-emmanuel-macron-not-resign.html)

yes

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Bashar al-Assad be President of Syria on December 31, 2024?

AP: [What to know about sudden rebel gains in Syria’s 13-year war and why it matters](https://apnews.com/article/syria-hts-assad-aleppo-fighting-2be43ee530b7932b123a0f26b158ac22)

no

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Miami have at least 5 days of rain in December 2024?

At the time of this question, Miami is Abnormally Dry according to Drought.gov at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/florida/county/miami-dade).

yes

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?

[Thousands of professors join call for president to resign](https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20241129133043835)

yes

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Ghana declare a winner in its presidential election before January 1, 2025?

[Ghana’s December 2024 elections put the resilience of the country’s vaunted democracy to the test](https://afripoli.org/ghanas-december-2024-elections-put-the-resilience-of-the-countrys-vaunted-democracy-to-the-test) | [Ghana 2024 Elections: A Risk Assessment of the Online Information Space](https://www.iri.org/resources/ghana-2024-elections-a-risk-assessment-of-the-online-information-space/)

yes

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Alpental ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 6, 2024?

From the resolution source: "Alpental (German for alpine valley) is one of four base areas at the Summit at Snoqualmie, separated from the other three by Interstate 90. Alpental offers the most advanced and expert terrain at the area with runs like Upper International and Shot Six. The area provides some of the steepest and deepest terrain, but it’s also great for beginner skiers and boarders. Where Is Alpental Ski Resort Located? The Summit at Snoqualmie is an hour from Seattle on Interstate 90."

no

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline between $3.020 and $3.080 (inclusive) for the week of December 9, 2024?

According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards."

no

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024?

According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards."

yes

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024?

According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. The weekly survey is designed to collect data on the cash price offered at the pump (including taxes) to consumers for each grade of gasoline. The data collected represent the price as of 8:00 a.m. local time on Monday, for the self-serve price except in areas having only full-serve, and the cash price except for outlets accepting only credit cards."

no

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees?

According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value."

no

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of <1.25 degrees?

According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value."

no

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of >1.31 degrees?

According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value."

yes

2024-12-05T15:30:00Z

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?

[Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-president-yoon-declares-martial-law-2024-12-03/): > In South Korea's biggest political crisis in decades, Yoon shocked the nation and declared martial law on Tuesday night to thwart "anti-state forces" among his domestic political opponents. But outraged lawmakers unanimously rejected the decree. Yonhap news agency said the cabinet had agreed early on Wednesday to scrap the martial law. Protesters outside the National Assembly parliament shouted and clapped. “We won!” they chanted, and one demonstrator banged on a drum. > > The main opposition Democratic Party called for Yoon, who has been in office since 2022, to resign or face impeachment. “Even if martial law is lifted, he cannot avoid treason charges. It was clearly revealed to the entire nation that President Yoon could no longer run the country normally. He should step down," senior DP member of parliament Park Chan-dae said in a statement.

yes

2024-12-31T12:00:00Z

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?

[Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/): > On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing bill. In response, the left-wing opposition put forward a no-confidence motion [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-turning-point-amid-budget-uncertainty-finance-minister-says-2024-12-03/): > French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday [December 4] on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone's second-largest economy. > Barring a last-minute surprise, Barnier's will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.

yes

2024-12-13T05:01:00Z

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Candy Meehan survive the recall vote in Norwood, Colorado, scheduled for December 10, 2024?

Ballotpedia: [Candy Meehan recall, Norwood, Colorado (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Candy_Meehan_recall,_Norwood,_Colorado_(2024))

yes

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the state of Delaware's Division of Corporations list OpenAI as an "Exempt" entity on December 31, 2024?

[Exclusive: OpenAI to remove non-profit control and give Sam Altman equity](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/)

yes

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be less than -6?

[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has increased from -8.6 on November 4, 2024 to -6 on November 21, the highest score of the previous 4 years.

no

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than or equal to -6 and less than or equal to -4?

[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has increased from -8.6 on November 4, 2024 to -6 on November 21, the highest score of the previous 4 years.

no

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than -4?

[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has increased from -8.6 on November 4, 2024 to -6 on November 21, the highest score of the previous 4 years.

yes

2024-12-04T15:30:00Z

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have under $550 billion in reverse repurchase agreements at the end of December 2024?

TrendForce: [Fed’s Reverse Repo Shrinks Significantly: Is Market Liquidity at Risk ?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/11/news-feds-reverse-repo-shrinks-significantly-is-market-liquidity-at-risk/)

no

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have less than $6.8 trillion in assets at the end of December 2024?

Reuters: [Fed's Powell says balance sheet drawdown continues amid rate cuts](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-says-balance-sheet-drawdown-continues-amid-rate-cuts-2024-09-18/)

no

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Bitcoin be worth at least 200,000 Dogecoin on December 30, 2024?

At the time of this question, Dogecoin had year-to-date returns of 375.27% and Bitcoin had ytd returns of 129.63%.

yes

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the 2024 return of professional investor Howard Marks beat the return of any of the politicans tracked by Quiver Quantitative?

NPR: [Stock traders are trying to beat the market — by copying lawmakers](https://www.npr.org/2024/06/06/nx-s1-4974720/congress-stock-trades-profits)

no

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat the S&P 500 in 2024?

Motley Fool: [Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Nearly Tripled the S&P 500's Returns in 2023: Here Are the Stocks She's Been Buying](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/04/28/former-house-speaker-nancy-pelosi-nearly-tripled-t/)

yes

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat Berkshire Hathaway in 2024?

Benzinga: [Edward Snowden Contrasts Warren Buffett's Investment Skills with Nancy Pelosi, Dan Meuser: 'Fortunate to Be Represented by Extraordinary Talents](https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/03/38016319/edward-snowden-contrasts-warren-buffetts-investment-skills-with-nancy-pelosi-dan-meuser-fortunate-to)

yes

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥175,000 for November 2024?

TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors? "The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month."

yes

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥75,000 for November 2024?

TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors? "The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month."

yes

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers for November 2024?

TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, raising questions in the market. Will this lead to an adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory? Is there evidence of a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market, or are there other contributing factors? "The U.S. nonfarm payroll increased by only 12,000 jobs in October, a sharp decline of 211,000 from the previous month and well below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, consistent with the prior month."

yes

2024-12-03T15:30:00Z

2024-12-02T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on December 20, 2024?

On Nomember 22, 2024, of the 10 individuals ranked 246-255 on Bloomberg's list, 6 were from the United States. On the entire list, 190 out of 500 indivduals were from the United States.

yes

2024-11-30T15:30:00Z

2024-11-29T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will marijuana still be listed as a US Schedule I controlled substance on December 31, 2024?

According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/): >On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) signed by Attorney General Merrick Garland in the Federal Register. This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.

yes

2024-11-30T15:30:00Z

2024-11-29T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US Supreme Court's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 41.0% on December 30, 2024?

Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).

no

2024-11-28T15:30:00Z

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US Congress's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 22.0% on December 30, 2024?

Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).

no

2024-11-28T15:30:00Z

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will JD Vance's 538 favorability be greater than or equal to 39.0% on December 30, 2024?

Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).

yes

2024-11-28T15:30:00Z

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Kamala Harris's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024?

Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).

no

2024-11-28T15:30:00Z

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 38.5% on December 30, 2024?

According to 538, its approval tracker is "An updating calculation of the president's approval rating, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects."

no

2024-11-28T15:30:00Z

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?

According to [Airnow](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/): >The U.S. Air Quality Index (AQI) is EPA's tool for communicating about outdoor air quality and health. The AQI includes six color-coded categories, each corresponding to a range of index values. The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality. >EPA establishes an AQI for five major air pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act. Each of these pollutants has a national air quality standard set by EPA to protect public health: > - ground-level ozone > - particle pollution (also known as particulate matter, including PM2.5 and PM10) > - carbon monoxide > - sulfur dioxide > - nitrogen dioxide On November 21, 2024, CNN [reported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/20/india/delhi-pollution-clinic-smog-climate-intl-hnk/index.html) that New Delhi had the most hazardous air for human health in the world, leading the Delhi Chief Minister to declare a "medical emergency" as authorities closed schools and urged people to stay home. On November 20, 2024 the reading for PM2.5, which has been linked to asthma, heart and lung disease, cancer, and cognitive impairment in children, was more than 77 times higher than safe levels set by the WHO. At the time of this question, in 2024 year to date 6% of hours have had an AQI classified as Hazardous, 12% of hours have been Very Unhealthy, and 33% Unhealthy. To access the data for 2024 and previous years from 2015 through the present day, please go [here](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi) and click on the Historical tab.

yes

2024-12-20T22:30:00Z

2024-12-06T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the temperature in Phoenix, AZ remain below 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?

In December 2022, the highest High was 74 F and in December 2023 it was 84. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website."

no

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the temperature in New York, NY ever go below 25 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024?

In December 2022, this occurred, but in December 2023 it did not. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website."

yes

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Donald Trump's 538 favorability be greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024?

Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).

yes

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore still be in space on December 30, 2024?

CNET: [Stranded NASA Astronauts Are Eating Pizza, Shrimp Cocktail, Cereal With Powdered Milk](https://www.cnet.com/science/stranded-nasa-astronauts-are-eating-pizza-shrimp-cocktail-cereal-with-powdered-milk/)

yes

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

resolved

On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?

This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot). Waymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the development of autonomous vehicles. Since its inception as Google’s self-driving car project in 2009, Waymo’s vehicles have logged over 7 million miles of rider-only trips. As of early 2024, Waymo operates its rider-only ride-hailing service in California (San Francisco and Los Angeles) and Arizona (Phoenix), and has announced plans to expand operations to Texas (Austin). In late 2023, Waymo published a [report](https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/) claiming that its autonomous vehicles have achieved an 85% reduction in the rate of injury-causing compared to national rates for human-operated cars, highlighting the potential of self-driving cars to reduce crashes caused by human error.

no

2024-11-27T15:30:00Z

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Providence, RI in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 5.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

yes

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Los Angeles, CA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 2.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

yes

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Orlando, FL in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 1.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

yes

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Baltimore, MD in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 2.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

yes

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

no

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Hartford, CT in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 7.0%, according to Zillow?

According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.

no

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Y2K, scheduled to open December 6, 2024, exceed $5,000,000?

[BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, is withholding forecasts on Y2K until more information is available. IMDB [describes](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27218960/) the movie as follows: "Two high school nobodies make the decision to crash the last major celebration before the new millennium on New Year's Eve 1999. The night becomes even crazier than they could have ever dreamed when the clock strikes midnight." Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking): >Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. >Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on. >Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.

no

2024-11-26T15:30:00Z

2024-11-25T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Virgin Galactic fail to make make any new posts on its News page before January 1, 2025?

As of November 20, 2024, Virgin Galactic's most recent post was timestamped July 10, 2024.

no

2024-11-23T15:30:00Z

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?

[Bluesky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluesky) is a decentralised social media platform developed by Twitter co-founder [Jack Dorsey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dorsey). It aims to provide users with greater control over their data and the algorithms that curate their feeds. Since its public launch in February 2024, Bluesky has seen significant growth, going from 3 million users before launch to 20 million as of November 19, 2024, 10 million of which joined the platform over the past [two months](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2024/11/18/post-election-x-rival-bluesky-is-adding-millions-of-users/).

no

2024-11-23T15:30:00Z

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?

[*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedgehog 3*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18259086/) is an upcoming action-adventure comedy film based on the Sega video game series. The original *Sonic the Hedgehog* earned $58 million in its domestic opening weekend, while its sequel, *Sonic the Hedgehog 2*, made $72 million. Both films are based in intellectual properties from the early 90s and are set for release on December 20, 2024. Despite the differences in the box office performances of the previous installments in their respective franchises, projections for both films [appear to be similarly strong](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-mufasa-the-lion-king-and-sonic-the-hedgehog-3s-early-box-office-ranges-plus-wicked-gladiator-ii-and-moana-2-updates/). Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking): >Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. >Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on. >Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.

no

2024-11-23T15:30:00Z

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Mt Seymour ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 13, 2024?

Vancouver Sun: [PSA: Metro Vancouver ski hills just received the first snow of the season](https://vancouversun.com/news/psa-metro-vancouver-ski-hills-just-received-the-first-snow-of-the-season) "Weather experts are also betting on a snowier winter this year compared to last year"

no

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the yield curve be non-inverted on Friday December 27, 2024?

As of Wednesdays November 20, 2024, the value shown was 0.10.

yes

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Comex Gold Spot prices remain below $2,800 per ounce through December 27, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance?

According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-best-gold-investments-to-make-before-2025-experts-say/): "Gold shattered historic records in 2024, hitting $2,790 per ounce in October, its upward price trajectory stemming from heavy central bank buying, ongoing inflation concerns and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. As a result, the investors who bought in early this year have already seen impressive returns, defying gold's reputation as only a long-term investment."

yes

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will lithium carbonate (CNY/T) prices continuously remain above 70,000 before December 21, 2024?

According to TradingEconomics: "Lithium carbonated rose to CNY 79,000 per tonne after having traded near the three-year low of CNY 71,000 through late October, benefiting from supply curbs and an uptick in demand. The Chinese government enacted subsidies allowing people to trade older cars for electric vehicles in their latest push to support the sector, raising expectations that battery manufacturers may soon begin restocking lithium inputs. Despite relatively high stocks from a historical standpoint, battery manufacturers also reportedly raised purchasing activity amid risks of a trade war after Trump assumes office next year in the US. In turn, the plunge in prices during the year drove multiple mines in Australia and China to close or cut costs, resulting in 190 tons of lithium mine curtailments since 2023."

yes

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000?

According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking): >Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. >Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on. >Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.

no

2024-11-22T15:30:00Z

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Kraven the Hunter, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000?

According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, Kraven the Hunter is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking): >Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. >Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on. >Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.

no

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

resolved

Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?

Google is most recently listed in July 2024, with the blurb saying, "Is reportedly making large cuts globally across several of its Cloud teams, including teams focused on sustainability, consulting and partner engineering." Google has also been mentioned in May, April, and January.

no

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

resolved

Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla?

Tesla is most recently listed in April 2024, with the blurb saying, "Has gutted its charging team in a new round of layoffs, CEO Elon Musk announced in an overnight email to executives."

no

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will South Carolina have 300,000 or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?

[Nearly four weeks without rain, drought conditions creeping back in South Carolina](https://www.foxcarolina.com/2024/10/24/nearly-four-weeks-without-rain-drought-conditions-creeping-back-south-carolina/)

yes

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?

crosspost of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29902/will-astro-bot-win-the-game-of-the-year-2024-award/ for Brown

yes

2024-12-13T05:20:00Z

2024-11-21T21:06:00Z

resolved

Will Astro Bot or Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth win Console Game of the Year in the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?

The 2024 nominees for Console Game of the Year are Astro Bot, Dragon’s Dogma 2, Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, Helldivers 2, Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown, and The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Larry Ellison be ranked in the top 2 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024?

As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B. Jeff Bezos was 4th, with 200.9B. Bernard Arnault & family was 5th, with $183.1B. And Warren Buffett with 6th, with $142.2B.

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on December 27, 2024?

Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on December 27, 2024?

Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.

yes

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs exceed 590 on December 27, 2024?

Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 3.0M for November 2024?

In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.8M for November 2024?

In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.6M for November 2024?

In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.4M for November 2024?

In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.`

yes

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Kalshi outrank Robinhood in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024?

This question represents an unfolding of events in which Kalshi continues building on its momentum, as surpassing the Robinhood app (currently ranked #22) would be considered quite a feat for a prediction market app. On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election.

no

2024-11-20T15:30:00Z

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?

[*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedgehog 3*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18259086/) is an upcoming action-adventure comedy film based on the Sega video game series. The original *Sonic the Hedgehog* earned $58 million in its domestic opening weekend, while its sequel, *Sonic the Hedgehog 2*, made $72 million. Both films are based in intellectual properties from the early 90s and are set for release on December 20, 2024. Despite the differences in the box office performances of the previous installments in their respective franchises, projections for both films [appear to be similarly strong](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-mufasa-the-lion-king-and-sonic-the-hedgehog-3s-early-box-office-ranges-plus-wicked-gladiator-ii-and-moana-2-updates/). Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking): >Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. >Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on. >Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.

no

2024-12-19T23:00:00Z

2024-11-21T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton win the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year?

[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)

yes

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Federal Register list 3 or more executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024?

Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)

yes

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Federal Register list 1 or 2 executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024?

Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)

no

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the Federal Register list exactly zero executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024?

Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)

no

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the USDA-posted recall affecting Dearborn Sausage Company, Inc be closed before December 1, 2024?

According to Dayton Daily News on [September 12, 2024](https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/beef-pork-wiener-label-mix-up-leads-to-recall-undeclared-allergen/OU4NXTZP7VGX5KFQD64OPADGFE/), About 1,944 pounds of ready-to-eat wieners have been recalled by the Dearborn Sausage Company Inc. because beef products were labeled as pork and vice versa. The swap also led to soy, a known allergen, not being declared on the beef wieners. The problem was discovered when the establishment received a complaint from a retailer that the products they received may have been incorrectly labeled. The establishment determined that they inadvertently mislabeled beef wiener products as beef and pork wiener products and vice versa. The products labeled as beef and pork wiener products actually contain beef wiener products that contain soy; therefore, soy is not declared on the finished product label. Additionally, the product labeled as beef wiener products actually contain beef and pork wiener products, therefore, pork is not declared on the finished product label. There have been no confirmed reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products."

no

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

On December 30, 2024, Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world?

As of October 5, 2024, Nvidia was the #3 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.

no

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

On December 30, 2024, Will Microsoft have the largest market cap in the world?

As of October 5, 2024, Microsoft was the #2 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.

no

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

On December 30, 2024, Will Apple have the largest market cap in the world?

As of October 5, 2024, Apple was the #1 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.

yes

2024-11-19T15:30:00Z

2024-11-18T15:30:00Z

resolved

On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-coming-waymo-monopoly). Cruise, the autonomous vehicle unit of General Motors, has faced significant setbacks in its efforts to deploy self-driving vehicles. In late October 2023, Cruise [suspended](https://apnews.com/article/cruise-robotaxi-suspends-operations-gm-73f27ef959afe1e201e61f0fd31802d5) all driverless operations nationwide after California regulators ordered the company to remove its driverless cars from state roads, citing safety concerns and accusing Cruise of misrepresenting the technology's capabilities. The California Department of Motor Vehicles [stated](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/dmv-statement-on-cruise-llc-suspension/) that Cruise's driverless vehicles posed "an unreasonable risk to public safety" and that the company had provided misleading information about the safety of its self-driving system. This move by regulators came after a series of incidents involving Cruise vehicles, including crashes caused by the vehicles' abrupt braking. Additionally, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [is investigating](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/cruise-under-nhtsa-probe-into-autonomous-driving-pedestrian-injuries.html) multiple reports of Cruise self-driving cars engaging in inappropriately hard braking, resulting in collisions. The agency is seeking more information from Cruise regarding five new crash reports involving such incidents. Cruise's suspension of driverless operations across the U.S. represents a major setback for the company and General Motors' ambitions in the autonomous vehicle space. The company has [stated](https://x.com/Cruise/status/1717707807460393022?s=20) that it would take time to examine its processes and rebuild public trust.

no

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2025?

As of May 2023, US law does not have export controls on the sale of software services that include powerful generative AI. As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.) In Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China. As the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI.

no

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Before January 1, 2025, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?

In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas. As the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. The ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. See Also Base rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)

yes

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Violet be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?

Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally. Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved - 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange) - 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red) - 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue) - 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow) - 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue) - 2019: **Living Coral** (Red) - 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet) - 2017: **Greenery** (Green) - 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue) - 2015: **Marsala** (Red) The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).

no

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Blue be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?

Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally. Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved - 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange) - 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red) - 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue) - 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow) - 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue) - 2019: **Living Coral** (Red) - 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet) - 2017: **Greenery** (Green) - 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue) - 2015: **Marsala** (Red) The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).

no

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Green be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?

Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally. Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved - 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange) - 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red) - 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue) - 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow) - 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue) - 2019: **Living Coral** (Red) - 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet) - 2017: **Greenery** (Green) - 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue) - 2015: **Marsala** (Red) The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).

no

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Yellow be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?

Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally. Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved - 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange) - 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red) - 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue) - 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow) - 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue) - 2019: **Living Coral** (Red) - 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet) - 2017: **Greenery** (Green) - 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue) - 2015: **Marsala** (Red) The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).

no

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Orange be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?

Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally. Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved - 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange) - 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red) - 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue) - 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow) - 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue) - 2019: **Living Coral** (Red) - 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet) - 2017: **Greenery** (Green) - 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue) - 2015: **Marsala** (Red) The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).

yes

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Red be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?

Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally. Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved - 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange) - 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red) - 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue) - 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow) - 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue) - 2019: **Living Coral** (Red) - 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet) - 2017: **Greenery** (Green) - 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue) - 2015: **Marsala** (Red) The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).

no

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved

Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?

[The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November. [Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY.

yes

2024-11-16T15:30:00Z

2024-11-15T15:30:00Z

resolved