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Failure to consider the costs of adaptation strategies can be seen by decision makers as a barrier to implementing coastal protection measures. In order to validate adaptation strategies to sea-level rise in the form of coastal protection, a consistent and repeatable assessment of the costs is necessary. This paper significantly extends current knowledge on cost estimates by developing - and implementing using real coastal dike data - probabilistic functions of dike costs. Data from Canada and the Netherlands are analysed and related to published studies from the US, UK, and Vietnam in order to provide a reproducible estimate of typical sea dike costs and their uncertainty. We plot the costs divided by dike length as a function of height and test four different regression models. Our analysis shows that a linear function without intercept is sufficient to model the costs, i.e. fixed costs and higher-order contributions such as that due to the volume of core fill material are less significant. We also characterise the spread around the regression models which represents an uncertainty stemming from factors beyond dike length and height. Drawing an analogy with project cost overruns, we employ log-normal distributions and calculate that the range between 3x and x/3 contains 95% of the data, where x represents the corresponding regression value. We compare our estimates with previously published unit costs for other countries. We note that the unit costs depend not only on the country and land use (urban/non-urban) of the sites where the dikes are being constructed but also on characteristics included in the costs, e.g. property acquisition, utility relocation, and project management. This paper gives decision makers an order of magnitude on the protection costs, which can help to remove potential barriers to develop-ing adaptation strategies. Although the focus of this research is sea dikes, our approach is applicable and transferable to other adaptation measures. | Lenk, S; Rybski, D; Heidrich, O; Dawson, RJ; Kropp, JP | Costs of sea dikes - regressions and uncertainty estimates | Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences | https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-765-2017 |
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to discuss freshwater vulnerability to environmental change, including climate change, in Levant countries. Design/methodology/approach - The paper uses the methodological guidelines prepared by UNEP and Peking University, using the fresh water vulnerability index (VI) for each country of the Levant region. The VI was calculated for a five-year period interval, i.e. 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and was predicted for the years 2020 and 2040 taking into consideration the expected impacts of climate change. Findings - The vulnerability of freshwater resources was explored by isolating strategically-important issues related to different functions (uses) of freshwater systems in the Levant region. All Levant countries are very vulnerable according to the adopted methodology (VI values are from 0.5-0.7), with Palestine being the worst case. The value of each parameter was calculated for five-year interval period and for each Levant country. The most dominant parameter was the water variation parameter (RSv), which is a natural factor and highlights how vulnerable the region is to climate change. The second most important parameter was the water exploitation pressures (DPs), which reflect the efforts of the countries to satisfy their water needs from the limited water resources. Cooperation and exchange of data and information at the regional level regarding the vulnerability of the region to climate change and measures for mitigation and adaptation could help in alleviating its impacts on the countries of the region. Originality/value - This paper highlights that fresh water resources in Levant region are under increasing pressures due to human-made and natural reasons. High population growth and economic activities rates have placed extensive pressure on the already limited water resources. Moreover, the prevailing arid climate and the expected impact of climate change will decrease the fresh water availability. | Al-Sibai, M; Droubi, A; Al-Ashkar, H | Freshwater vulnerability in the Levant region | International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management | https://doi.org/10.1108/17568691211223178 |
Climate information is an important support for national adaptation plan processes, but there is at the same time a general desire that climate information should be more relevant and appropriate in relation to decision-making contexts. An initial step in such a development towards tailored climate information would be to understand the currently available climate indices, their definitions and contexts. This study systematically reviews the scientific literature on climate indices and factors related to specific climate impacts, and in this way identifies currently available climate indices for Swedish forestry and agriculture. The identified indices are analysed relative to climate change impact categories from the vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans set out by the Swedish Forest Agency and the Swedish Board of Agriculture, to indicate development potentials and research gaps in climate indices. The review identifies 79 definitions of climate indices for forestry and 63 indices for agriculture in Sweden. The reviewed literature has employed or developed climate indices for only 11 of the 25 types of climate impact emphasised as important by the two sectoral authorities. Most of the climate indices identified have been adopted for use in modelling forest growth or crop growth and productivity. The results of the review found indices lacking for a substantial number of impacts that are relevant for Swedish forestry and agriculture. The study shows that scientific literature on climate indices to a very limited degree addresses the specific tailoring of climate indices. Potential reasons for the lack of climate indices are discussed, and the study suggests that there is a need to continue climate model development such that the models better represent relevant processes, to advance research on the co-design of indices together with sectoral stakeholders, and to enhance collaboration between adaptation, impact modelling and climatology research. The results of this study may be used in future research to analyse if and how the identified climate indices can be actionable for different stakeholders, and as a foundation to examine the demands and feasibilities of developing new tailored climate indices. | Wiréhn, L | Climate indices for the tailoring of climate information - A systematic literature review of Swedish forestry and agriculture | Climate Risk Management | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100370 |
The IPCC states that climate change unequivocally impacts on various aspects of the natural and built environment, including our vital critical infrastructure systems (transport, energy, water/wastewater and communications). It is thus essential for countries to gain an understanding of critical infrastructure vulnerability to current and future climate-related threats, in order to develop effective climate adaptation strategies. The first requisite step towards implementing these strategies, before any detailed analysis can commence, is high-level vulnerability or risk assessments. The work in this paper is concerned with such high-level assessments, however the framework presented is GIS-based, facilitating modelling of geographical variability in both climate and asset vulnerability within a country. This permits the identification of potential climate change risk hotspots across a range of critical infrastructure sectors. The framework involves a number of distinct steps. Sectoral information matrices are developed to highlight the key relationships between the infrastructure and climate threats. This information is complemented with sectoral maps showing, on an asset-level, the potential geospatial impacts of climate change, facilitating initial quantification of the vulnerable portions of the infrastructure systems. Finally, the approach allows for development of multi-sectoral semi-quantitative risk ranking maps that account for the geographical proximities of various assets from different critical infrastructure sectors which are vulnerable to a specific climate threat. The framework is presented in the paper and applied as a case study in the context of Irish critical infrastructure. The case-study identified for instance, potentially substantial increases in fluvial flooding risk for Irish critical infrastructure, while the multi-sectoral risk ranking maps highlighted a number of Ireland's urban and rural areas as climate change risk hotspots. These high-level insights are likely to be useful in informing more detailed assessment, and initiating important conversations relating to a region's critical infrastructure cross-sectoral risk. | Hawchar, L; Naughton, O; Nolan, P; Stewart, MG; Ryan, PC | A GIS-based framework for high-level climate change risk assessment of critical infrastructure | Climate Risk Management | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100235 |
Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting 'acceptable risk levels' and identifying 'adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action. This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. | McDermott, TKJ; Surminski, S | How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland | Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences | https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0300 |
Purpose - The much-trumpeted Green Climate Fund and several other official financial mechanisms for financing adaptation to climate change under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change have fallen short in meeting adaptation needs. Many poorer people are still grappling with the scourge of climate change impacts. Consequently, there has been a dominant research focus on climate change financing emanating from official development assistance (ODA), Adaptation Fund, public expenditure and private sector support. However, there has been little attempt to examine how migrants' remittances can close adaptation financing gaps at the local level, ostensibly creating a large research gap. This paper aims to argue that migrants' remittances provide a unique complementary opportunity for financing adaptation and have a wider impact on those who are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Design/methodology/approach - The paper is aligned to the qualitative research approach. Both secondary and primary data acquired through interviews and focus group discussions were used for the study. Multiple samplingmethods were also used to select the respondents. Findings - The findings show that remittances are used to finance both incremental costs of households' infrastructure and consumption needs, as well as additional investment needs to be occasioned by ongoing or expected changes in climate. Originality/value - In the wake of dwindling government/public revenue, ODA and poor commitment of Annex II countries to fulfil their financial obligations, the study makes the following recommendations: First, the financial infrastructure underpinning money transfers in both sending and recipient countries should be improved to make transfers attractive. Second, significant steps should be taken to reduce the fees on remittance services, especially for the small transfers typically made by poor migrants. Finally, adequate climatic information should be made available to local people to ensure that remittances are applied to the right adaptation option to avoid maladaptation. | Musah-Surugu, IJ; Ahenkan, A; Bawole, JN; Darkwah, SA | Migrants' remittances A complementary source of financing adaptation to climate change at the local level in Ghana | International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management | https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2017-0054 |
Understanding farmers' perceptions about climate change and adaptation strategies can help support their efforts and develop interventions more suited to the local context. This is particu-larly important for farmers who exploit fragile ecosystems such as marshlands.Using semi-structured questionnaires and interviews conducted with smallholder farmers in the marshlands of Kabare, this study compares the perception of men and women relating to climate change and uses the chi-square test and logistic regression to examine gendered differ-ences in response to climate change and the determinants of farmers' choice of sustainable practices. Meteorological data trends for three decades were also compared.Results showed that both men (77 %) and women (73 %) experienced climate change and this was illustrated by changes in temperature and rainfall patterns. Farmers' climate change per-ceptions are consistent with the local historical climate data showing a slightly increasing trend of temperature and a decrease in rainfall for the last decade, particularly between 2013 and 2019. Although significant differences were observed between gender and sources of climate infor-mation (p < 0.05), 50 % of women farmers favored indigenous knowledge of climate, while 61 % of men farmers stated that experience exchange among fellow farmers helped to read and predict climate trends. The common impacts reported by farmers included the proliferation of pests (90 %), a decrease in soil fertility (75 %), and floods, resulting in crop failure. Farmers used various adaptation strategies in response to the perceived impacts. However, the choice of sustainable practices such as crop diversification, drainage, growing low-maintenance crops, and use of mulch and manure were associated with farmers 'experience, exchanging information among fellow farmers, livestock ownership, and the perception of climatic threats to crops. The infor-mation provided in this paper is valuable for the farmers' resilience-building program. | Balasha, AM; Munyahali, W; Kulumbu, JT; Okwe, AN; Fyama, JNM; Lenge, EK; Tambwe, AN | Understanding farmers? perception of climate change and adaptation practices in the marshlands of South Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo | Climate Risk Management | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100469 |
The way we plan and design our landscapes, infrastructure, and cities has to transform if we want to meet the needs of our society and address climate change without breaching the earth's ecological boundaries. Landscape architects are known as environmental stewards. They are trained to create a balance between the built and natural environments. However, landscape architects' agency to lead climate change actions is restricted. Little is known about the barriers to addressing climate change in landscape architectural practice, and the levers to increase landscape architects' agency in climate change leadership. This paper addresses this gap through an in-depth empirical analysis of barriers and facilitators of climate change action from the perspective of landscape architecture professionals. In-depth interviews were conducted with 24 practitioners from Australia. The results show that those interviewed perceived the profession had limited agency and influence in leading climate decisions. Other barriers exist and are grouped against the three spheres of transformation: 1) design implementation barriers influencing the built outcomes (practical); 2) structures and systems barriers influencing the design decision-making processes (political); and 3) socio-cultural barriers including values, ideologies, and beliefs (personal). The most restricting barriers that emerged were those related to limited project budget and timeframes, informational and technological aspects (access to reliable data, tools, and skillsets), as well as those related to political systems and structures in place (regulations, and design standards). Key facilitators to address existing barriers are identified, including creating awareness through practice and advocacy, active involvement of professionals in all life stages of projects, especially in planning and policy creation, and closer collaborations with other built environment sectors beyond sub-consultancy. The findings can pave the way towards increased agency and impact of the profession to bring climate change agendas to the forefront of landscape design practice. | Moosavi, S; Hurlimann, A; Nielsen, J; Bush, J; Myers, GW; March, A | Transforming the agency and influence of landscape architects in climate change actions: An empirical analysis of barriers and facilitators | Landscape And Urban Planning | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2023.104735 |
Cities are key actors in the fight against climate change since they are major sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while at the same time they experience the negative impact of this phenomenon. Mitigating and adapting to climate change requires fundamental changes in urbanism and city automobile traffic. Superblocks, a grid of blocks and basic roads forming a polygon, approximately 400 by 400 m, are one of the instruments for such changes. These type of city Superblocks represent a new model of mobility that restructures the typical urban road network, thereby substantially reducing automobile traffic, and accordingly GHG emissions, while increasing green space in the city and improving the health and quality of life of its inhabitants. Furthermore, the Superblocks do not require investment in hard infrastructures, nor do they involve demolishing buildings or undertaking massive development; they are in fact very low-tech urbanism. The city of Barcelona has been implementing Superblocks as one of the measures to combat climate change with very positive results. The paper analyzes the concept of the Superblock and its relation with climate change in cities. Along these lines, it analyzes the pioneer experience of Barcelona in the development and implementation of the Superblocks, as a radical plan aimed at taking back the streets from cars. The role of political power and institutional leadership has been key in societal acceptance and the achievement of tangible results. But there are also obstacles and drawbacks in the development of these types of Superblocks, such as the necessity to redesign the collective transport network so that car traffic can truly be reduced in cities, the possible negative influence on traffic going in and out of the city, the lack of visible advantages if they are not implemented in the entire city, the risk of gentrification in the areas with Superblocks, public opposition, and opposition from certain sectors of the business community. | Lopez, I; Ortega, J; Pardo, M | Mobility Infrastructures in Cities and Climate Change: An Analysis Through the Superblocks in Barcelona | Atmosphere | https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040410 |
In Eastern Africa, increasing climate variability and changing socioeconomic conditions are exacerbating the frequency and intensity of drought disasters. Droughts pose a severe threat to food security in this region, which is characterized by a large dependency on smallholder rain-fed agriculture and a low level of technological development in the food production systems. Future drought risk will be determined by the adaptation choices made by farmers, yet few drought risk models horizontal ellipsis incorporate adaptive behavior in the estimation of drought risk. Here, we present an innovative dynamic drought risk adaptation model, ADOPT, to evaluate the factors that influence adaptation decisions and the subsequent adoption of measures, and how this affects drought risk for agricultural production. ADOPT combines socio-hydrological and agent-based modeling approaches by coupling the FAO crop model AquacropOS with a behavioral model capable of simulating different adaptive behavioral theories. In this paper, we compare the protection motivation theory, which describes bounded rationality, with a business-as-usual and an economic rational adaptive behavior. The inclusion of these scenarios serves to evaluate and compare the effect of different assumptions about adaptive behavior on the evolution of drought risk over time. Applied to a semi-arid case in Kenya, ADOPT is parameterized using field data collected from 250 households in the Kitui region and discussions with local decision-makers. The results show that estimations of drought risk and the need for emergency food aid can be improved using an agent-based approach: we show that ignoring individual household characteristics leads to an underestimation of food-aid needs. Moreover, we show that the bounded rational scenario is better able to reflect historic food security, poverty levels, and crop yields. Thus, we demonstrate that the reality of complex human adaptation decisions can best be described assuming bounded rational adaptive behavior; furthermore, an agent-based approach and the choice of adaptation theory matter when quantifying risk and estimating emergency aid needs. | Wens, M; Veldkamp, TIE; Mwangi, M; Johnson, JM; Lasage, R; Haer, T; Aerts, JCJH | Simulating Small-Scale Agricultural Adaptation Decisions in Response to Drought Risk: An Empirical Agent-Based Model for Semi-Arid Kenya | Frontiers In Water | https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2020.00015 |
Over the last several decades, natural disasters in the United States have become more numerous and costly. Climate change threatens to further exacerbate this trend by increasing both the severity and duration of many natural hazards, ultimately leading to even greater costs in both human life and monetary resources. To prepare for these changes, a handful of local communities have integrated climate change into their Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) approved hazard mitigation plans. This paper analyzes 30 U.S. local hazard mitigation plans against a conceptual framework for how climate change could be integrated into the requirements specified in the FEMA Plan Review Crosswalk, a checklist used by FEMA to evaluate and approve local hazard mitigation plans. Results show that the majority (23/35) of communities are openly discussing how climate change could affect or already is affecting the occurrence of natural hazards. Additionally, over half also include hazard mitigation actions that are designed to be viable in a climate-altered future. These actions, however, represent only a small portion of the total actions proposed in the plans and are generally focused on researching, planning, and capacity building. In addition, few communities include a formal commitment to adapting to climate change or include clear mechanisms for integrating new climate information as it become available into plan revisions. In general, results from this analysis show that there is little consistency in how communities are integrating climate change into hazard planning. These findings point to both the nascence of this practice and the opportunity to develop more formalized guidance that can steer communities towards holistic integration of climate change into hazards planning. (C) 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). | Stults, M | Integrating climate change into hazard mitigation planning: Opportunities and examples in practice | Climate Risk Management | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.06.004 |
Countries across the world aspire towards climate resilient sustainable development. The interacting processes of climate change, land change, and unprecedented social and technological change pose significant obstacles to these aspirations. The pace, intensity, and scale of these sizeable risks and vulnerabilities affect the central issues in sustainable development: how and where people live and work, access to essential resources and ecosystem services needed to sustain people in given locations, and the social and economic means to improve human wellbeing in the face of disruptions. This paper addresses the question: What are the characteristics of transformational adaptation and development in the context of profound changes in land and climate? To explore this question, this paper contains four case studies: managing storm water runoff related to the conversion of rural land to urban land in Indonesia; using a basket of interventions to manage social impacts of flooding in Nepal; combining a national glacier protection law with water rights management in Argentina; and community-based relocation in response to permafrost thaw and coastal erosion in Alaska. These case studies contribute to understanding characteristics of adaptation which is commensurate to sizeable risks and vulnerabilities to society in changing climate and land systems. Transformational adaptation is often perceived as a major large-scale intervention. In practice, the case studies in this article reveal that transformational adaptation is more likely to involve a bundle of adaptation interventions that are aimed at flexibly adjusting to change rather than reinforcing the status quo in ways of doing things. As a global mosaic, transformational change at a grand scale will occur through an inestimable number of smaller steps to adjust the central elements of human systems proportionate to the changes in climate and land systems. Understanding the characteristics of transformational adaptation will be essential to design and implement adaptation that keeps society in step with reconfiguring climate and land systems as they depart from current states. | Warner, K; Zommers, Z; Wreford, A; Hurlbert, M; Viner, D; Scantlan, J; Halsey, K; Halsey, K; Tamang, C | Characteristics of Transformational Adaptation in Climate-Land-Society Interactions | Sustainability | https://doi.org/10.3390/su11020356 |
The current study has mapped the impact of changes in different climatic parameters on the productivity of major crops cultivated in India like cereal, pulses, and oilseed crops. The vulnerability of crops to different climatic conditions like exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive indicators along with its different components and agribusiness has been studied. The study uses data collected over the past six decades from 1960 to 2020. Analytical tools such as the Tobit regression model and Principal Component Analysis were used for the investigation which has shown that among climatic parameters, an increase in temperature along with huge variations in rainfall and consistent increase in CO2 emissions have had a negative impact by reducing crop productivity, particularly cereals (26 percent) and oilseed (35 percent). Among various factors, adaptive factors such as cropping intensity, agricultural machinery, and livestock density in combination with sensitivity factors such as average operational land holding size and productivity of cereals, and exposure indicators like Kharif (June-September) temperature, heavy rainfall, and rate of change in maximum and minimum Rabi (October-February) temperature have contributed significantly in increasing crop vulnerability. The agribusiness model needs to be more inclusive. It should pay attention to small and remote farmers, and provide them with inclusive finance that can facilitate the adoption of climate-smart financial innovations, serve the underserved segments, and help them reach the target of a sustainable and inclusive agribusiness model. Though the social, technological, and economic initiatives can enhance the adaptive capacity of farmers, political measures still have a major role to play in providing a healthy climate for agriculture in India through tailored adaptive approaches like the adoption of craft climate adaptation program, dilating the irrigation coverage and location-centric management options. Hence, multidisciplinary and holistic approaches are worth emphasizing for evaluating the future impacts of change in climate on Indian agriculture. | Mohapatra, S; Mohapatra, S; Han, H; Ariza-Montes, A; López-Martín, MD | Climate change and vulnerability of agribusiness: Assessment of climate change impact on agricultural productivity | Frontiers In Psychology | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.955622 |
Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs) to guide future research on SETPS to inform climate policy. We review existing literature to create a tipping point typology and to derive the following SETP definition: a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state. Through stakeholder consultation, we identify 22 candidate SETP examples with policy relevance for Europe. Three of these are described in higher detail to identify their tipping point characteristics (stable states, mechanisms and abrupt change): the collapse of winter sports tourism, farmland abandonment and sea-level rise-induced migration. We find that stakeholder perceptions play an important role in describing SETPs. The role of climate drivers is difficult to isolate from other drivers because of complex interplays with socio-economic factors. In some cases, the rate of change rather than the magnitude of change causes a tipping point. The clearest SETPs are found on small system scales. On a national to continental scale, SETPs are less obvious because they are difficult to separate from their associated economic substitution effects and policy response. Some proposed adaptation measures are so transformative that their implementations can be considered an SETP in terms of 'response to climate change'. Future research can focus on identification and impact analysis of tipping points using stylized models, on the exceedance of stakeholder-defined critical thresholds in the RCP/SSP space and on the macro-economic impacts of new system states. | van Ginkel, KCH; Botzen, WJW; Haasnoot, M; Bachner, G; Steininger, KW; Hinkel, J; Watkiss, P; Boere, E; Jeuken, A; de Murieta, ES; Bosello, F | Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research | Environmental Research Letters | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6395 |
We report findings from a mixed method study of women's gendered experiences with flash floods in the coastal city of Lagos, Nigeria. Drawing on narrative accounts from 36 interviews, a survey (n = 453) and 6 focus group discussions, we investigate the impacts of floods in general and specifically the July 2011 flood event on women's lives, livelihoods, and health. We draw on complementary perspectives from feminist political ecology and social vulnerability theory to understand the ways in which such events are perceived, experienced and managed by women of different socio-economic classes, households, and geographic locations. Thematic and content analyses were used to examine women's perceptions of floods, while descriptive statistical analysis and chi-square test were employed to compare actual impacts. Results show that women in general expressed no concern about gendered vulnerability to flooding as most believed flood impacts were gender neutral. This dominant view however, was not supported by evidence in the post-July 2011 flooding as impacts varied among income groups and neighbourhoods, and gender differences were apparent. Women in the low-income neighbourhood recorded higher impacts and slower recovery compared to other social categories of women and men. All impacts reported were statistically significant between women in low and high income neighbourhoods but most were not significant between women in middle and high income neighbourhoods. Gender relations and roles intersecting with place, class, employment status, and healthcare, were mediating factors that placed low-income women at greater risk of impacts than others. With climate change likely to induce more extreme events, a case is made for collaborative and institutional efforts to systematically boost urban poor women's adaptive capacity through targeted programmes aimed at alleviating poverty and improving women's access to housing, health care and alternative sources of livelihoods. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | Ajibade, I; McBean, G; Bezner-Kerr, R | Urban flooding in Lagos, Nigeria: Patterns of vulnerability and resilience among women | Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.009 |
The climate sensitive social-ecological systems of the Nepali Himalaya are increasingly exposed to the impacts of rapid climate change. As a result, the changing climate is negatively impacting upon livelihoods of the region. Effective adaptation responses could reduce the negative impacts Of change, and assessments of vulnerability of local social-ecosystems are helping to initiate that process. However, insufficient research has assessed climate change-induced vulnerability of Nepali Himalayan social-ecosystems at different scales. This study measures the vulnerability of social-ecosystems at the household level and within three village clusters of the Kaligandaki Basin in the Central Himalaya, Nepal. The clusters represent different ecological zones: Meghauli in the hot and wet tropical Tarai; Lumle in the cool, wet temperate Middle-Mountains; and Upper-Mustang in the cold and dry Trans-Himalaya. Data on the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the social-ecosystems were collected through face-to-face interviews with 360 households. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity sub-indices were calculated and integrated to develop the vulnerability indices. The social-ecosystems reveal significant levels of exposure to climate change and are sensitive to change and extreme weather events, but limited capacities to adapt across all spatial scales result in very high social-ecological vulnerability. Yet, there is variation in the levels of vulnerability across the households, primarily because of different non-climatic factors such as the livelihood assets that a household commands. Given that many Nepali households have very limited adaptive capacities, the country requires an adaptation policy to address the needs of the most vulnerable households through a 'poor people first' approach, before adaptation planning and investment is extended gradually to reduce the vulnerability of social-ecosystems across the country. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | Pandey, R; Bardsley, DK | Social-ecological vulnerability to climate change in the Nepali Himalaya | Applied Geography | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.09.008 |
It is now widely recognized that climate change affects multiple sectors in virtually every part of the world. Impacts on one sector may influence other sectors, including seemingly remote ones, which we call interconnections of climate risks. While a substantial number of climate risks are identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, there have been few attempts to explore the interconnections between them in a comprehensive way. To fill this gap, we developed a methodology for visualizing climate risks and their interconnections based on a literature survey. Our visualizations highlight the need to address climate risk interconnections in impact and vulnerability studies. Our risk maps and flowcharts show how changes in climate impact natural and socioeconomic systems, ultimately affecting human security, health, and well-being. We tested our visualization approach with potential users and identified likely benefits and issues. Our methodology can be used as a communication tool to inform decision makers, stakeholders, and the general public of the cascading risks that can be triggered by climate change. Plain Language Summary The paper demonstrates in a most holistic manner how climate change can generate various risks and how they are actually interconnected. Based on a literature survey using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, we identified 91 climate risks and 253 causal relationships among them and graphically drew such interconnected risks. We found that changes in the climate system impact the natural and socioeconomic system, influencing ultimately human security, health, and well-being. This indicates that climate change can trigger a cascade of impacts across sectors. Our findings point to the need to address the climate risk interconnections in impact and vulnerability studies. We tested our visualization approach with potential users and identified likely benefits and issues. The implications of our study go beyond science. Our study is useful to inform stakeholders of a broad yet fresh perspective of climate risks that have not been presented before. | Yokohata, T; Tanaka, K; Nishina, K; Takahashi, K; Emori, S; Kiguchi, M; Iseri, Y; Honda, Y; Okada, M; Masaki, Y; Yamamoto, A; Shigemitsu, M; Yoshimori, M; Sueyoshi, T; Iwase, K; Hanasaki, N; Ito, A; Sakurai, G; Iizumi, T; Nishimori, M; Lim, WH; Miyazaki, C; Okamoto, A; Kanae, S; Oki, T | Visualizing the Interconnections Among Climate Risks | Earths Future | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000945 |
We estimate the potential value of general circulation model (GCM)-based seasonal precipitation forecasts for maize planting and fertilizer management decisions at two semi-arid locations (Katumani and Makindu) in Southern Kenya. Analyses combine downscaled rainfall forecasts, crop yield simulation, stochastic enterprise budgeting and identification of profit-maximizing fertilizer N rates and stand densities. October-February rainfall predictions were downscaled from a GCM, run with both observed and forecast sea surface temperature boundary conditions - representing upper and lower bounds of predictability - and stochastically disaggregated into daily crop model inputs. Simulated interactive effects of rainfall, N supply and stand density on yield and profit are consistent with literature. Perfect foreknowledge of daily weather for the growing season would be worth an estimated 15-30% of the average gross value of production and 24-69% of average gross margin, depending on location and on whether household labor is included in cost calculations. GCM predictions based on observed sea surface temperatures increased average gross margins 24% at Katumani and 9% at Makindu when labor cost was included. At the lead time used, forecasts using forecast sea surface temperatures are not skillful and showed near-zero value. Forecast value was much more sensitive to grain price than to input costs. Stochastic dominance analysis shows that farmers at any level of risk aversion would prefer the forecast-based management strategy over management optimized for climatology under the study's assumptions, despite high probability (25% at Katumani, 34% at Makindu) of lower returns in individual years. Results contribute to knowledge of seasonal forecast value in a relatively high-risk, high-predictability context; utility and value of forecasts derived from a GCM; and risk implications of smallholder farmers responding to forecasts. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | Hansen, JW; Mishra, A; Rao, KPC; Indeje, M; Ngugi, RK | Potential value of GCM-based seasonal rainfall forecasts for maize management in semi-arid Kenya | Agricultural Systems | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2009.03.005 |
Flood damage is on the increase due to a combination of growing vulnerability and a changing climate. This trend can be mitigated only through significantly improved flood risk management which, alongside the efforts of public authorities, will include improvements in the mitigation measures adopted by private households. Economically reasonable efforts to self-insure and self-protect should be expected from households before the government steps in with publicly-funded relief programmes. To gain a deeper understanding of the benefits of households' precautionary measures, telephone interviews with private home owners were conducted in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany after the floods of 2002 and again after the floods in 2005 and 2006. Only detached, solid single-family houses were included in this study, which is based on 759 interviews. In addition, market-based cost assessments were solicited based on a model building. Expert interviews and a literature review - including catalogues and price lists for building materials and household appliances were used as back-up information for the cost assessments. The comparison of costs and benefits shows that large investments, such as building a sealed cellar, are only economically efficient if the building is flooded very frequently, that is, if it is located in a high flood risk area. In such areas it would be preferable in economic terms not to build a new house at all - or else to build a house without a cellar. Small investments, however, such as oil tank protection, can prevent serious damage at low cost. Such investments are still profitable even if the building is flooded every 50 years or less on average. It could be argued that these low-cost measures should be made mandatory through the enforcement of building codes. Financial incentives built into insurance contracts coupled with limits set on governmental relief programmes would provide an economic motivation for people to invest in precautionary measures. | Kreibich, H; Christenberger, S; Schwarze, R | Economic motivation of households to undertake private precautionary measures against floods | Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences | https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-309-2011 |
Cyclone early warning systems are the primary sources of information that enable people to develop a preparedness strategy to mitigate the hazards of cyclones to lives and livelihoods. In Bangladesh, cyclone early warnings have significantly decreased the number of cyclone related fatalities over the last two decades. Nevertheless, several challenges remain for existing early warning services (EWS), urging for both technical and non-technical improvements in the said services. Given limited financial resources, the economic efficiency assessment of the improvement is highly important. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for improved warning services by considering the at-risk households' trade-off between proposed improved EWS and existing EWS in coastal Bangladesh. Applying systematic random sampling, 490 respondent households were selected from Khulna, Satkhira, and Barguna districts, with whom a choice experiment (CE) was performed. The CE was designed by incorporating impact-based scenarios for improved EWS. As analytical tools, Conditional and Mixed-Logistic regression models were used that derived the WTP for improved EWS attributes. Empirical results show that the WTP of an at-risk household for improved EWS was estimated at Bangladeshi Taka BDT 468 (similar to US$ 5.57) per year, implying respondents were ready to pay for the improvement of the warning attributes, including precise information of the cyclones landfall time with possible impacts, more frequent radio forecasts, and voice messages in the local dialects over mobile phones. A revenue stream for improved EWS was developed, implying investments in EWS would be a no-regrets approach. This study concludes with four policy recommendations on mitigating the existing challenges for improving EWS in Bangladesh. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. | Ahsan, MN; Khatun, A; Islam, MS; Vink, K; Ohara, M; Fakhruddin, BSHM | Preferences for improved early warning services among coastal communities at risk in cyclone prone south-west region of Bangladesh | Progress In Disaster Science | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100065 |
Adaptation to climate change is an important theme in the strategy and policy of institutions around the world. Billions of dollars are allocated every year, based on cost estimates of actions to cope with, or benefit from the impacts of climate change. Costing adaptation, however, is complex, involving multiple actors with differing values and a spectrum of possible adaptation strategies and pathways. Currently, expert driven, top-down approaches dominate adaptation costing in practice. These approaches are subject to misallocation, with global funds not always reaching vulnerable communities in most need. This paper introduces an analytical framework called Participatory Social Return on Investment (PSROI), which provides a structured framework for multi-stakeholder planning, selection and valuation of appropriate methods of adaptation. The broader economic, social and environmental impacts of these adaptation actions are explored and valued through a participatory process. PSROI is strength-based, building local capacity and generating stakeholder buy-in. The financial valuation generated provides an additional tool for examining and prioritizing adaptation actions based on their impact. Results from a pilot of the PSROI framework in a smallholder farming community in Western Kenya provide empirical evidence for the difference between expert driven desk-based and ground-based cost estimates that involve local communities. There was an approximate 70 % reduction in the valuation of an agroforestry intervention, selected by the local community, when compared between the desk-based valuation and that of the local community, using primary field data. This reduced expectation of the desk-based PSROI is justified by coherent explanations such as lack of knowledge about the intervention, misconception about the potential costs and benefits, and the risk-averse nature of the farmers. These and other important insights are fundamental for planning and decision-making, as well as appropriate targeting and delivery of funding for adaptation. | Chaudhury, AS; Helfgott, A; Thornton, TF; Sova, C | Participatory adaptation planning and costing. Applications in agricultural adaptation in western Kenya | Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9600-5 |
This study examines the state of local practice in planning for climate change adaptation in coastal Australia, in the context of rapidly evolving policy frameworks, using grounded theory to examine the process communities follow as they undertake adaptation planning. Australia's coastal cities and towns, with over 85 per cent of the nation's population, are at the frontline of physical risks associated with sea level rise and changed weather patterns; exacerbated by ongoing concentration of public and private assets in potentially vulnerable locations. This is particularly so for coastal councils beyond the major capital cities, where settlement patterns and lifestyle oriented economies based on tourism and leisure focus on the coastal strip, and local government resources are highly constrained. To assess progress in climate change adaptation planning, this study involved local government professionals, experts and elected officials through a survey and focus groups (n = 49) held between February and July 2011. The audit indicates some areas are well underway towards holistic adaptation strategies but, others have neither engaged, nor anticipate, adaptation planning activities; of the strategies that have commenced, few are yet completed; and, despite ongoing development pressure, few councils have yet changed their planning controls for climate risk. Of those areas that have commenced adaptation planning, most strategies and commitments will require additional resourcing and external expertise to implement; while others face community skepticism and pushback which may undermine future progress. The results reveal a ladder of adaptation action, whereby communities tend to have to accomplish early steps before they move on to more complex, expensive, or political policies. We connect this ladder to community perceptions of what is supported in state and national frameworks and legislation. Communities in the future may be able to use this ladder to suggest where to start their processes, and directions to undertake as they accomplish their first tasks. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | Gurran, N; Norman, B; Hamin, E | Climate change adaptation in coastal Australia: An audit of planning practice | Ocean & Coastal Management | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2012.10.014 |
In recent years, we have experienced mega-flood disasters in Japan due to climate change. In the last century, we have been building disaster prevention infrastructure (artificial levees and dams, referred to as grey infrastructure) to protect human lives and assets from floods, but these hard protective measures will not function against mega-floods. Moreover, in a drastically depopulating society such as that in Japan, farmland abandonment prevails, and it will be more difficult to maintain grey infrastructure with a limited tax income. In this study, we propose the introduction of green infrastructure (GI) as an adaptation strategy for climate change. If we can use abandoned farmlands as GI, they may function to reduce disaster risks and provide habitats for various organisms that are adapted to wetland environments. First, we present a conceptual framework for disaster prevention using a hybrid of GI and conventional grey infrastructure. In this combination, the fundamental GI, composed of forests and wetlands in the catchment (GI-1) and additional multilevel GIs such as flood control basins that function when floodwater exceeds the planning level (GI-2) are introduced. We evaluated the flood attenuation function (GI-1) of the Kushiro Wetland using a hydrological model and developed a methodology for selecting suitable locations of GI-2, considering flood risk, biodiversity and the distribution of abandoned farmlands, which represent social and economic costs. The results indicated that the Kushiro Wetland acts as a large natural reservoir that attenuates the hydrological peak discharge during floods and suitable locations for introducing GI-2 are concentrated in floodplain areas developing in the downstream reaches of large rivers. Finally, we discussed the network structure of GI-1 as a hub and GI-2 as a dispersal site for conservation of the Red-crowned Crane, one of the symbolic species of Japan. | Nakamura, F; Ishiyama, N; Yamanaka, S; Higa, M; Akasaka, T; Kobayashi, Y; Ono, S; Fuke, N; Kitazawa, M; Morimoto, J; Shoji, Y | Adaptation to climate change and conservation of biodiversity using green infrastructure | River Research And Applications | https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3576 |
Climate change presents a considerable threat to human security, with notable gender disproportions. Women's vulnerability to climate change has implications on agro-based livelihoods, especially the rural populace. The primary purpose of this study was to assess women's vulnerability to climate change and the gender-skewed implications on agro-based livelihoods in rural Zvishavane, Zimbabwe. A qualitative approach that used purposive sampling techniques was adopted. Data was collected through 20 in-depth interviews with 11 de jure and 9 de facto small-scale female-headed farmer households. Two focus group discussions with mixed de facto and de jure small-scale female-headed farmer households were also conducted. Five key informant interviews were held with departmental heads of the Ministry of Women's Affairs, Gender and Community Development; the Agriculture Technical Extension Service Department; the Livestock Production Department; the Runde Rural District Council and the Meteorological Services Department. Gendered effects were noted in terms of increased roles and responsibilities for women. Observations showed that there was an increase in distances travelled by women to fetch water owing to a depleted water table. Climate-induced migration of men due to depleted livelihoods in rural areas has also increased roles and responsibilities for women. The traditional male responsibilities assumed by women included cattle herding and ox-driven ploughing. This study concluded that adaptation strategies towards vulnerability to climate change have to be gender-sensitive and area-specific. This study also recommended that response programmes and policies meant to curb existing gendered vulnerabilities should be informed by evidence because climate-change effects are unique for different geographical areas. Moreover, adaptation activities should be mainstreamed in community processes so as to reduce the burden on women and increase sustainability opportunities. | Chidakwa, P; Mabhena, C; Mucherera, B; Chikuni, J; Mudavanhu, C | Women's Vulnerability to Climate Change: Gender-skewed Implications on Agro-based Livelihoods in Rural Zvishavane, Zimbabwe | Indian Journal Of Gender Studies | https://doi.org/10.1177/0971521520910969 |
Structural change and efficacy measurements have made Norwegian livestock fanning dependent on imported protein-rich components in feed concentrate. The increasing global demand and competition for stable protein sources has spurred a new debate on food security and utilization of local resources. Certain local species have been identified as promising alternatives to imported sources because of their high level of proteins, such as legumes and seaweed. In Norway, the use of seaweed as both food and feed has historical roots reaching back to the Viking age. To replace or reintroduce local protein sources requires substantial and long-term investments in both competence, technology and market mechanisms. At the same time, the unstable situation in global markets for protein rich feed components, makes the vision of sustainable local protein sources difficult to refuse. Little is known, however, about large scale and sustainable manufacturing and distribution of concentrate based on these local resources, nor of farmers' willingness or ability to make use of these resources. This paper seeks to identify and explain sheep farmer's perceptions towards the vision of increasing the use of local protein sources in arctic sheep fanning. Based on in-depth interviews with active and retired sheep fanners in coastal and inland Northern Norway, we have explored the dynamic relationship between biophysical and political conditions for farming, and the farmers' willingness and capacity to adapt to new and alternative sustainable practises. Through narrative analyses of farmers' storylines four archetypes were co-constructed, that each explain critical dimensions to farmers' perceptions towards increased use of local protein sources. Building upon insights from adaptive capacity literature and social embeddedness theory, the study shows how farmers' meet these limiting conditions through proactive or reactive responses. The archetypes can inform the wider debate on sustainable feeding regimes at various scales, by revealing context-dependent and endogenous factors that shape farmers responses to change. | Bay-Larsen, I; Risvoll, C; Vestrum, I; Bjorkhaug, H | Local protein sources in animal feed - Perceptions among arctic sheep farmers | Journal Of Rural Studies | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2018.02.004 |
The first international conference for the post-2015 United Nations landmark agreements (Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, Sustainable Development Goals, and Paris Agreement on Climate Change) was held in January 2016 to discuss the role of science and technology in implementing the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. The UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 aimed to discuss and endorse plans that maximize science's contribution to reducing disaster risks and losses in the coming 15 years and bring together the diversity of stakeholders producing and using disaster risk reduction (DRR) science and technology. This article describes the evolution of the role of science and technology in the policy process building up to the Sendai Framework adoption that resulted in an unprecedented emphasis on science in the text agreed on by 187 United Nations member states in March 2015 and endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly in June 2015. Contributions assembled by the Conference Organizing Committee and teams including the conference concept notes and the conference discussions that involved a broad range of scientists and decision makers are summarized in this article. The conference emphasized how partnerships and networks can advance multidisciplinary research and bring together science, policy, and practice; how disaster risk is understood, and how risks are assessed and early warning systems are designed; what data, standards, and innovative practices would be needed to measure and report on risk reduction; what research and capacity gaps exist and how difficulties in creating and using science for effective DRR can be overcome. The Science and Technology Conference achieved two main outcomes: (1) initiating the UNISDR Science and Technology Partnership for the implementation of the Sendai Framework; and (2) generating discussion and agreement regarding the content and endorsement process of the UNISDR Science and Technology Road Map to 2030. | Aitsi-Selmi, A; Murray, V; Wannous, C; Dickinson, C; Johnston, D; Kawasaki, A; Stevance, AS; Yeung, T | Reflections on a Science and Technology Agenda for 21st Century Disaster Risk Reduction | International Journal Of Disaster Risk Science | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-016-0081-x |
Effective adaptive governance will emerge from strong relationships between science, governance, and practice. However, these relationships receive scant critical attention among adaptive governance scholarship. To address this lacuna, Jasanoff's idiom of coproduction provides a lens to view the dialectical relationships between science and society. This view sees science and governance as coevolving through iterative relationships between the material, cognitive, social, and normative dimensions of a problem. This coevolution is precisely the aspiration of adaptive governance; however, the abstract notion of coproduction must be grounded to provide practical guidance for groups aspiring to govern adaptively. I have drawn on three concepts, namely coproduction, bridging/boundary organizations, and adaptive capacity, to present a conceptual framework of coproductive capacities. Coproductive capacities are the material, cognitive, social, and normative capacities that enable groups of actors to connect knowledge with action in a cross-scale governance context. This framework was applied to two cases of connectivity conservation. Inspired by the science of conservation biology, connectivity conservation promotes collaborative, cross-scale governance to conserve biodiversity at a landscape scale. This tight coupling of science and governance in a cross-scale context makes connectivity conservation a classic case of both coproduction and adaptive governance. However, the inability of the initiatives in the cases examined to turn their visions into action highlights a critical absence of key capacities. In particular, challenges faced in connecting knowledge with action at various scales points to the importance of building relationships between actors across scales. The structures and mechanisms of governance have dominated adaptive governance scholarship, yet coproductive capacity and adaptive governance emerge from the relationships between actors seeking to connect knowledge with action. Building capacity to negotiate these relationships is a more fruitful focus for adaptive governance than design principles and diagnostics. | Wyborn, CA | Connecting knowledge with action through coproductive capacities: adaptive governance and connectivity conservation | Ecology And Society | https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06510-200111 |
Every country in the world will of course face natural disasters and the disasters they face need proper handling. Natural disaster mitigation efforts are also a major concern faced by every country. This is because natural disasters cause economic losses for every country. Natural disaster insurance is one of the alternatives in financing the losses that occur. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine a model for determining natural disaster insurance premiums in Indonesia with a cross-subsidy system. This is based on the mapping of natural disaster cases in Indonesia based on each province, besides that the cases of natural disasters that occur in each province are not evenly distributed. In addition, this study uses data on the number of losses and the frequency of natural disasters that occurred in Indonesia from 2000-2019 in the analysis of the insurance premium determination model. The method used in this study is a cross-subsidy system, where for provinces with small natural disaster potential, subsidies are provided to provinces with high natural disaster potential. With the existence of a cross-subsidy system, provinces with a high level of potential for natural disasters are not burdened with insurance premiums that are too expensive. Based on the results of the analysis, North Kalimantan is the province with the smallest insurance premium, which is IDR. 202,812,668,089.03, while Central Java is the province with the largest insurance premium of IDR. 29,467,750,876,241.50. In addition, the analysis results show that the insurance premiums that must be paid in each province in Indonesia vary. This is based on the level of potential disasters that occur in each province in Indonesia which also varies. From the results of the study, it is hoped that it can be a reference for the government in determining the insurance model in Indonesia. | Kalfin; Sukono; Supian, S; Mamat, M | INSURANCE PREMIUM DETERMINATION MODEL AS NATURAL DISASTER MITIGATION EFFORT IN INDONESIA WITH A CROSS SUBSIDY SYSTEM | International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences | null |
In the current study, flood risk assessment of densely populated coastal urban Surat City, on the bank of the lower Tapi River in India, was conducted by combining the hydrodynamic model-based flood hazard and often neglected socioeconomic vulnerability. A two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic (HD) model was developed using physically surveyed topographic data and the existing land use land cover (LULC) of the study area (5248 km2). The satisfactory performance of the developed model was ascertained by comparing the observed and simulated water levels/depths across the river and floodplain. The 2D HD model outputs with geographic information system (GIS) applications were further used to develop probabilistic multiparameter flood hazard maps for coastal urban city. During a 100-year return period flood (Peak discharge = 34,459 m3/s), 86.5% of Surat City and its outskirt area was submerged, with 37% under the high hazard category. The north and west zones are the worst affected areas in Surat City. The socioeconomic sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators were selected at the city's lowest administrative (ward) level. The socioeconomic vulnerability was evaluated by employing the robust data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique. Fifty-five of 89 wards in Surat City, covering 60% of the area under the jurisdiction of the Municipal Corporation, are highly vulnerable. Finally, the flood risk assessment of the city was conducted using a bivariate technique describing the distinctive contribution of flood hazard and socioeconomic vulnerability to risk. The wards adjoining the river and creek are at high flood risk, with an equal contribution of hazard and vulnerability. The ward-level hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment of the city will help local and disaster management authorities to priorities high risk areas while planning flood management and mitigation strategies. | Jibhakate, SM; Timbadiya, PV; Patel, PL | Multiparameter flood hazard, socioeconomic vulnerability and flood risk assessment for densely populated coastal city | Journal Of Environmental Management | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118405 |
Coastal communities are increasingly vulnerable to changes in climate and weather, as well as sea-level rise and coastal erosion. The impact of these hazards can be very costly, and not just in terms of property damage, but also in lost revenue as many coastal communities are also tourism-based economies. The goal of this study is to investigate the awareness and attitudes of full-time residents and second-home property owners regarding the impact of climate and weather on property ownership and to identify the factors that most influences these attitudes in three coastal counties (Brunswick, Currituck, and Pender) of North Carolina, USA. The majority of previous studies have focused on only full-time residents' risk perceptions. Given the fact that these coastal communities have a high percentages of second homes, this study fills that research gap by including second-home owners. This study integrates both social (survey data) and physical (geospatial coastal hazards data) aspects of vulnerability into a single assessment to understand the determinants of property owners' risk perceptions and compare their perceived risks with their physical vulnerability. The study also compared the utility of a global ordinary least square (OLS) model with a local geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to identify explanatory variables in the dataset. The GWR was found to be a slightly better fit for the data with an R-2 of 0.248 (compared to 0.206 for the OLS). However, this was still relatively low and indicated that this study likely did not capture all of the factors that influence the perceptions of vulnerability in patterns of property ownership (whether full-time residents or second-home owners). The geospatial variables used to determine coastal vulnerability were found not to significantly impact perceptions related property ownership, but did provide additional insight in explaining spatial patterns of the response variable within each county. | Hao, HL; Eulie, D; Weide, A | An Integrative Approach to Assessing Property Owner Perceptions and Modeled Risk to Coastal Hazards | Isprs International Journal Of Geo-Information | https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9040275 |
Non-technical summary Adaptation to climate change has traditionally been framed as a local problem. However, in recent years, adaptation has risen on the global policy agenda. This article contributes to the study of transnational climate adaptation through an investigation of international connectivity on climate adaptation between regional policy-makers. We examine the RegionsAdapt initiative, the first global commitment to promote and track the progress of regional adaptation. While adapting to climate change at the regional level is crucial, we suggest that transnational adaptation governance not only helps to promote adaptation measures, but also improves the process of tracking the progress of such action, its visibility and its aggregation. Technical summary Adaptation to climate change has traditionally been framed as a local problem. However, in recent years, and particularly since the 2015 Paris Agreement established a global goal on adaptation, adaptation has risen on the global policy agenda. This article investigates the transnationalization of climate adaptation by regional governments. In contrast to the transnational dimension of climate mitigation, the transnationalization of adaptation governance is incipient and has received scarce academic attention. We examine the RegionsAdapt initiative, the first global commitment to support and report on adaptation efforts at the state and regional level. The initiative aims to promote regional climate adaptation, as well as to improve reporting of adaptation action. Drawing upon the three key elements that characterize the transnationalization of adaptation governance, we explore the scope, institutionalization and structure of this initiative. While the implementation of adaptation measures is largely the responsibility of regional and local governments and communities, we argue that transnational adaptation governance not only helps to promote adaptation measures, but also improves the process of tracking the progress of such action, its visibility and its aggregation. We suggest that incorporating adaptation into platforms such as the Global Climate Action portal would motivate further mobilization and accountability of adaptation action. | Setzer, J; de Murieta, ES; Galarraga, I; Rei, F; Pinho, MML | Transnationalization of climate adaptation by regional governments and the RegionsAdapt initiative | Global Sustainability | https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2020.6 |
Gender equality is a yardstick for measuring the progress of social civilization and an important goal for mankind to achieve sustainable development. The importance of women in the global governance of climate change is self-evident. During the global climate change governance, it is very crucial to focus on achieving gender equality. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is the main channel of global climate change governance, the gender-specific climate change agenda started later than other topics and the progress is limited. This article summarized the progress, deficiencies and future directions of gender issues under the main channels of global climate governance, analyzed the current status of gender equality in Chinese climate response actions, and pointed out the progress and deficiencies of women in the fundamental scientific research and the participation in global governance and decision-making. Our research finds that in the current process of international climate change governance, gender issues have received adequate attention. While in China, despite the attention paid to gender issues, the practical action on gender equality is still out of the mainstream agenda. In the past few decades, Chinese women have made gratifying progress in basic scientific research on climate change and global climate governance, but there are still great insufficiencies in the field of decision-making. In the future, China needs to pay more attention to emphasize gender equality at the strategic level, and promote the formulation of policies and regulations in the field of gender and climate change. Increasing the proportion of women participating in decision-making and management in the field of climate change and disaster prevention and mitigation is also important. China also needs to focus on enabling a gender friendly environment and strengthening research on gender and climate change, support women's participation in relevant work, strengthen capacity-building, and enhance women's access to resources, funds, knowledge and information related to climate adaptation or mitigation. | Zhang, YX; Huang, L; Chao, QC; Yang, QW; Chen, C | Analysis of gender equality in climate governance | Chinese Journal Of Population Resources And Environment | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjpre.2021.05.010 |
The structural Ricardian model has been used to examine the links between climate variables and staple food production in the literature. However, empirical extensions considering the cluster-correlated effects of climate change have been limited. This study aims to bridge this knowledge gap by extending the structural Ricardian model to accommodate for spatial clustering of the climate variables while examining their effects on staple food production. Based on nationally representative farm household data in Taiwan, the present study investigates the effect of climate conditions on both crop choice and the subsequent production of the three most important staple foods. The results suggest that seasonal temperature/precipitation variations are the major determinants of staple food production after controlling for farm households' socio-economic characteristics. The impacts of seasonal climate variations are found to be location-dependent, which also vary significantly across the staple food commodities. Climate change impact assessment under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios indicates the detrimental effect of climate change on rice production during 2021-2100. Under RCP6.0, the adverse effect of climate change on rice production will reach the high of approximately $2900 in the last two decades of the century. There is a gradual increase in terms of the size of negative impact on vegetable production under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. Under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, the effects of climate change on vegetable production switch in signs during the entire time span. The impact of climate change on fruits is different from the other two staple foods. The simulated results suggest that, except for RCP8.5, the positive impact of climate change on the production of fruits will be around $210-$320 in 2021-2040; the effect will then increase to $640-$870 before the end of the century. | Luh, YH; Chang, YC | Effect of Climate Change on Staple Food Production: Empirical Evidence from a Structural Ricardian Analysis | Agronomy-Basel | https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11020369 |
Climate change affects the livelihood of farmers in a variety of ways. Farmers' indigenous knowledge influences their perception of climate-related issues. A perception-based, semi-structured questionnaire survey of 530 households was performed to gather information about the awareness of, indicators for, and determinants of climate change. The survey covered three ecological regions of Nepal. The statistical analysis was done with a chi-square (chi(2)) test and a binary logistic regression (BLR) model to screen farmers' perception of climate change. This study shows that socio-economic and agricultural characteristics of the farmers directly influence their perception of climate change. Farmers have identified climate change indicators in various forms, e.g., an increase in temperature (99.2% of those surveyed), a decrease in precipitation (98.9%), and an increase in climate-induced diseases and pests (96.8%) for agricultural crops. Observed precipitation (- 16.093 mm/year; p = 0.055) and temperature (0.0539 degrees C/year; p = 0.007) between 2000 and 2015 are both consistent with farmers' perception. The selected independent variables are significantly correlated with the dependent variables, as confirmed by the BLR model, where chi(2) = 83 with p = 0.002. The BLR shows there is a strong relationship between farmers' perception of climate change and the group of descriptive variables, with a coefficient of determination of 85%. The biophysical characteristics and impact variables were the most important determinants. It is important that organizations and policymakers in Nepal develop adaptation strategies that improve the livelihoods of farmers. These strategies include introducing drought-tolerant crops, developing disease- and pest-tolerant seeds, constructing irrigation systems, and building hospitals. | Paudel, B; Zhang, YL; Yan, JH; Rai, R; Li, LH; Wu, X; Chapagain, PS; Khanal, NR | Farmers' understanding of climate change in Nepal Himalayas: important determinants and implications for developing adaptation strategies | Climatic Change | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02607-2 |
This contribution explores how climate-vulnerable states can effectively use the law to force action in order to address loss and damage from climate change, taking the Pacific Island state of Vanuatu as an example. Vanuatu made headlines when its Minister of Foreign Affairs, International Cooperation and External Trade, the Hon. Ralph Regenvanu, announced his government's intention to explore legal action as a tool to address climate loss and damage suffered in Vanuatu. Our contribution places this announcement in the context of Vanuatu's own experience with climate loss and damage, and the state's ongoing efforts to secure compensation for loss and damage through the multilateral climate change regime. We then discuss the possibilities for legal action to seek redress for climate loss and damage, focusing on two types of action highlighted in Minister Regenvanu's statement: action against states under international law, and action against fossil fuel companies under domestic law. After concluding that the issue of compensation for climate loss and damage is best addressed at the multilateral level, we offer proposals on how the two processes of litigation and negotiation could interact with each other and inspire more far-reaching action to address loss and damage from climate change. Key policy insights The review of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage offers an opportunity to start putting in place a facility for loss and damage finance under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). A climate damages tax (CDT) on fossil fuel companies seems a particularly promising option for mobilizing loss and damage finance. Such a CDT could be one revenue stream for a relevant loss and damage facility. Legal action - including cases against foreign states or fossil fuel companies - could bolster the position of climate-vulnerable states in multilateral negotiations on loss and damage finance. | Wewerinke-Singh, M; Salili, DH | Between negotiations and litigation: Vanuatu's perspective on loss and damage from climate change | Climate Policy | https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1623166 |
While there has been significant progress regarding the research mode transdisciplinary research (TDR) on a theoretical level, case studies describing specific TDR processes and the applied methods are rare. The aim of this paper is to describe how the first phase (Phase A) of a TDR project can be carried out in practice and to evaluate its accomplishments and effectiveness. We describe and evaluate Phase A of a TDR project that is concerned with tipping points of riparian forests in Central Asia. We used a TDR framework with objectives for Phase A and selected a sequence of methods for transdisciplinary knowledge integration. Semi-structured expert interviews for eliciting problem perceptions prepared for two transdisciplinary workshops, in which perception graphs, interest-influence diagrams and stakeholder network analyses were applied in addition to discussions in the plenary and in break-out groups. Scientists and stakeholders achieved to jointly frame the real-world problem, formulate research objectives, design a framework for knowledge integration, build a TDR team and decide on specific research activities for the main project phase. TDR context, process and products were judged by workshop participants positively, with average ratings above 3 on a scale from 0 (worst) to 4 (best). Strengths of our particular TDR approach during Phase A were the direct contact (interviews and two workshops) with potential TDR participants and the ability to allocate sufficient time and money to Phase A due to thefunded project pre-phase of 1 year. TDR in countries foreign to the scientists, as in our study, is hampered by language barriers as well as by a lack of familiarity with local conditions, in particular regarding stakeholder interrelations that cannot be simply overcome by a stakeholder analysis. We believe that the presented approach for setting up a TDR project can serve as a good basis for the design of other projects. | Woltersdorf, L; Lang, P; Döll, P | How to set up a transdisciplinary research project in Central Asia: description and evaluation | Sustainability Science | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0625-7 |
Since the 1980's there has been an increasing debate throughout the world, that argues whether environmental degradation is a major cause of migration. Scientists claimed there were millions of environmental refugees in the late 1980s. The discussion of the links between environmental change and migration have since then been widely debated, especially because of the lack of empirical data on the linkages of the environment and migration. Within the last years the Nobel price winning International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) raised awareness about future impacts of climate change and stated that extreme weather events will occur more frequently and the number of people affected will be highest in the low-lying deltas of Asia and Africa. Heavy rain in south eastern Africa in early 2008 flooded the low-lying river areas along the Zambezi River in Central Mozambique and displaced up to 80,000 people -- the second such occurrence within two years. This number adds to tens of thousands of people already displaced from floods and cyclones during 2000, 2001 and 2007. Flooding in Mozambique provides a picture of the vulnerability many developing countries experience vis-a-vis extreme climate events. Resettlement has become a policy of last resort for a government trying to ensure safety in a populated area. Mozambique has in recent years become a prominent example of environmentally induced displacement/migration caused by flooding, and the efforts of a government to balance the safety of threatened people with the need to earn livelihoods on floodplains. Hence, this paper aims to understand the impacts of current extreme weather events, especially for a region of the world where the population is surviving via subsistence economy. This paper intends to decrease the lack of data on the linkages between the environment, displacement and migration and identify the major issues in dealing with these impacts. | Stal, M | Flooding and Relocation: The Zambezi River Valley in Mozambique | International Migration | https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2435.2010.00667.x |
Green-Win is the proposal where that government, society, and business can all reap benefits while at the same time playing a vital role in the transition to sustainable development and lower carbon futures. We argue that, while the Green-Win proposition is central to many state and expert models of sustainability transitions, as a construction, it belies more complex trade-offs and cognitive models of sustainability and societal transitions. Cultural models are cognitive representations shared by a community which provide both models of the world, which aid in interpreting what is in the world, how it works, what is possible (or not) and why, and models for the world, which suggest how to act in it to bring about desired outcomes (cf. Geertz 1973). We surveyed 225 respondents in Shanghai, China, Istanbul, Turkey, and Beirut, Lebanon to assess their basic beliefs about sustainability, specifically whether it is possible to implement concrete practices that realize environmental sustainability goals in conjunction with economic development-the Green-Win proposition. We found important similarities and differences among urban stakeholders' cultural models of sustainable development. For example, Chinese and Lebanese respondents displayed a strong belief that economic growth and environmental sustainability are compatible, while Turkish respondents showed significant disagreement with this proposition. We argue that such basic notions about the possibility of Green-Win opportunities between environmental sustainability and economic development are important to understand in the context of mitigating and adapting to climate change in critical urban environments. Cultural models of and for green development may either enable or inhibit transformations in urban systems according to local conditions. Finally, we discuss the potential implications of cultural models' research for targeting communications and engendering collaborations among diverse stakeholders in order to align perspectives and overcome barriers that may otherwise limit successful visioning, planning, and implementation for transformation towards sustainable development. | Thornton, TF; Mangalagiu, D; Ma, YG; Lan, J; Yazar, M; Saysel, AK; Chaar, AM | Cultural models of and for urban sustainability: assessing beliefs about Green-Win | Climatic Change | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02518-2 |
Against the background of global environmental changes and the intensification of human activity, the village ecosystem faces enormous challenges. In particular, the rural areas in South China Karst face serious problems, such as karst desertification and human-land conflicts. In recent decades, the Chinese government and scientific researchers have committed to controlling karst desertification. However, village ecosystems in the context of karst desertification control (KDC) remain fragile. To promote the sustainable development of villages in KDC, this study considered village ecosystems in different karst desertification areas as study cases. Based on the model of susceptibility-exposure-lack of resilience, we constructed an index system of vulnerability research, used the entropy method to determine the weight, and introduced a contribution model to clarify the vulnerability level and vulnerability driving factors to recommend related governance strategies. We found that (1) the village ecosystem vulnerability levels under KDC were different. Village ecosystems were mildly vulnerable in none-potential KDC areas, moderately vulnerable in potential-mild areas, and moderately and highly vulnerable in moderate-severe KDC areas. (2) The combined effects of the natural environment and human activity have led to the vulnerability of village ecosystems in KDC in South China Karst. Among them, topography, climate, forest coverage, landscape pattern, soil erosion, karst desertification, economic development level, and production and living activity are the main factors affecting the village ecosystem vulnerability of KDC in South China Karst, and the differences in these factors lead to differences in vulnerability levels of different village ecosystems. (3) We designed adaptive governance strategies for village ecosystems based on the factors influencing the characteristics and vulnerability of different karst desertification areas, with the primary goal of sustainable development. They provide a decision-making basis for promoting sustainable development of the village ecosystems in KDC. | Tang, JH; Xiong, KN; Wang, Q; Chen, Y; Wu, QL | Village ecosystem vulnerability in karst desertification control: evidence from South China Karst | Frontiers In Ecology And Evolution | https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2023.1126659 |
Human communities inhabiting remote and geomorphically fragile flood plain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change-related hazards and hydrometeorological extremes. This study presents the community livelihood structure, perception of climate change, and indigenous coping strategies adopted by the local communities in the flood plain areas especially at the Hail haor. Field observations reveal that there have been several recent phenomena that are identified and reported on the manifestations of climate change by the respondent community members. These phenomena includes the following: loss of income (90 %), reduced fish availability (80 %), reduced fish diversity (70 %), reduced migratory bird's availability (70 %), decreased crop production (70 %), food crisis (70 %), reduced aquatic plants availability (60 %), sudden flood (60 %), increased storm (60 %), decreased water-retaining capacity of beels and haor (60 %), increased drought (50 %), temperature rise (50 %), drying of water supply canal (50 %), scattered rainfall patterns (40 %), increased fish diseases during winter season (40 %), increased human viral diseases (20 %), and introduction of unknown paddy diseases (red coloration of plant, 20 %). The indigenous adaptation and coping strategies were identified. The correlations between coping strategies and physical, human, financial, natural, and social assets were significant. From the present field observation, it is evident that livestock rearing, homestead vegetable gardening, increased fishing time, and change in livelihood options found as most effective options to cope with the adverse effect of climate change. By identifying localized climate change disasters with intensity of impacts and analyzing indigenous coping mechanisms, this study attempts to address the community-based adaptation practices in climate change challenges. | Monwar, MM; Mustafa, MG; Khan, NA; Hossain, MS; Hossain, MM; Majumder, MK; Chowdhury, RM; Islam, MA; Chowdhury, M; Alam, MS | Indigenous Adaptation Practices for the Development of Climate Resilient Ecosystems in the Hail Haor, Bangladesh | Global Social Welfare | https://doi.org/10.1007/s40609-014-0014-9 |
The need to tackle climate hazards and development efforts simultaneously is widely acknowledged. However, the possibility of alternative visions of development is seldom contemplated. Instead, adaptation research usually assumes monolithic claims about development constructed from the status quo of global capitalism. This paper outlines a critical approach to adaptation and explores the interplay between visions of development, governance structures, and strategies to cope with hurricanes in the Mexican Caribbean, a region at the 'front line' of both globalization and climatic extreme phenomena. Critical adaptation formulates the experiencing of hazards as essentially political and tied to contingent development paths, which may eventually become hegemonic. Over a hundred semi-structured and open interviews were held in Cancun, Mahahual, Playa del Carmen, and Tulum including academics, businesspeople, bureaucrats, journalists, non-governmental organizations and tourism workers in order to characterize development visions in the Mexican Caribbean. Findings show a prevalent hegemonic vision supporting mass tourism growth which encourages hurricane coping strategies based on effective evacuation and attracting investments for rapid economic recovery. The actual implementation of this vision increases social inequalities, degrades ecosystems, and amplifies overall exposure to extreme events. Mass tourism is enforced by undemocratic governance structures sustained by a coalition of government and tourism corporations (a government-capital bloc in Gramsci's sense). Some weak signs of counter-hegemony were identified in Playa del Carmen, Tulum and Mahahual. These isolated episodes of resistance might have triggered alternative coping strategies despite having little effect in altering the overall course of development. Further critical research is needed to unveil the socio-political foundations of development visions and their influence on capacities to cope with climatic extreme events. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | Manuel-Navarrete, D; Pelling, M; Redclift, M | Critical adaptation to hurricanes in the Mexican Caribbean: Development visions, governance structures, and coping strategies | Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.09.009 |
The focus of this study is on how changes in formal and informal institutions have differential impacts across populations in terms of vulnerability of livelihoods to drought, and the unequal processes that shape adaptation to new conditions. Drought vulnerability occurs as a result of exposure and sensitivity to interrelated economic, social, political, and ecological dynamics. There is a need for approaches that can evaluate how the ability to reduce these exposures and sensitivities becomes socially stratified. Building on our understanding of institutional and biophysical constraints in one pastoralist group ranch, we use an approach that draws on quantitative and qualitative data to combine analyses of entitlements, access, and adaptive capacity. We asked how, in a context of changing herding institutions, the ability to adapt to drought and other stressors, is differentiated among actors. We found that herders with higher livestock wealth are more likely to have entitlement sets that include factors that enable access to secure cattle grazing on private wildlife conservation lands, and access to more distant areas with herds of sheep and cattle two key means of reducing exposure to drought vulnerability, leading to greater coping ability during drought. Those with lower livestock wealth rely disproportionately on illicit, precarious access to external grazing resources. Higher livestock wealth families experienced disproportionately lower sensitivity to drought with smaller losses of cattle, and likely have decreased sensitivity to drought-related market fluctuations, while others are primarily reliant on small stock and/or precarious access pathways. However, rather than naturalize this differential ability as merely increased adaptive capacity for some that are better able to adapt to novel, local conditions, we argue this instead reflects the unequal footing that households find themselves on, in a shifting institutional landscape of structural and relational access constraints and reconfigurations of reciprocity, that are intertwined with interventions by state and non-state actors. | Unks, RR; King, EG; Nelson, DR; Wachira, NP; German, LA | Constraints, multiple stressors, and stratified adaptation: Pastoralist livelihood vulnerability in a semi-arid wildlife conservation context in Central Kenya | Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.11.013 |
Disaster recovery is multidimensional and requires theoretical and methodological approaches from the interdisciplinary social sciences to illustrate short-and long-term recovery dynamics that can guide more informed and equitable policy and interventions. The 2015 Nepal earthquakes have had catastrophic impacts on historically marginalized ethnic groups and Indigenous households in rural locations, arising in the immediate aftermath and unfolding for years afterward. Analyzing factors that shape household recovery patterns can help identify vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities in addition to signaling potential future changes. We pursue this goal using survey data from 400 randomly selected households in 4 communities over 2 10-week intervals at 9 months and 1.5 years after the earthquakes. Building on previous research that used non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination to identify patterns among multiple indicators of recovery (Spoon et al. 2020a), we investigate associations among these patterns of recovery, hazard exposure, and four domains of household adaptive capacity: institutional participation, livelihood diversity, connectivity, and social memory. Our results suggest: (1) social inequality, high hazard exposure, and disrupted place-based livelihoods (especially for herders, farmers, and forest harvesters on the geographic margins) had strong associations with negative recovery outcomes and displacement; (2) inaccessibility and marginality appeared to stimulate ingenuity despite challenging circumstances through mutual aid and local knowledge; (3) recoveries were non-linear, differing for households displaced from their primary home and agropastoral practice and those displaced to camps; and (4) some households experienced rapid changes while others stagnated. We contribute a temporal dataset with a random sample collected following a disaster that uses a theoretically informed quantitative methodology to explore linear and non-linear relationships among multidimensional recovery, adaptive capacity and change and provide an example of how vulnerabilities interact with adaptive capacity. | Spoon, J; Gerkey, D; Rai, A; Chhetri, RB | Contextualizing patterns in short-term disaster recoveries from the 2015 Nepal earthquakes: household vulnerabilities, adaptive capacities, and change | Ecology And Society | https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13892-280140 |
The Halligen in the German North Sea are a special type of island that are highly exposed to the adverse impacts of climate change. How do the Halligen adapt to these impacts, and what are the controversies and conflicts surrounding the adaptation process? In line with the recent political turn in critical adaptation research, we understand adaptation as a social and political-and therefore inherently contested-process. To uncover the contested nature of adaptation, we carried out a case study of Hallig Hooge, the largest inhabited Hallig, based on semi-structured interviews with Hallig residents. We first examine how the local population on Hallig Hooge perceives and responds to the impacts of climate change. In a second step, we then identify tensions or controversies that surround the adaptation process. The interviews reveal a high level of climate change awareness. The local population notices many different changes, but does not necessarily perceive these as threatening, not least because a range of adaptation measures is available and partly already being implemented. While the population approves of adaptation in principle, there are inherent tensions. Notably, we identify three partly overlapping controversies regarding, first, a general dichotomy of man vs. nature; second, the role of different actors and types of knowledge; and third, the objective of adaptation. Hence, the local population questions many regulations and restrictions associated with environmental protection; feels that their experience and local knowledge is not taken seriously enough; and worries that too many innovations may fundamentally change the character of the Hallig. Overall, the adaptive capacity of Hallig Hooge is high, but long-term climate change and adaptation to it raise the question of what it is that should be protected and preserved. This question is a political one, and it can only be answered through dialogue with the local population. | Klöck, C | Dealing with climate change in the German Wadden Sea: Perceptions, measures, and contestation on Hallig Hooge | Ocean & Coastal Management | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.104864 |
For the policy makers, risk-based planning to minimize future climatic risk needs decision on investment priority. This is particularly important where there are resource constraints, and in cases where the decisions depend on sociopolitical reality of the region. For the policy makers, it is also extremely important to know how a system will behave if investment is made on any specific adaptation in any specific location to minimize climatic risk in the region. To answer these questions, an Adaptation Model is developed in this study to compute adaptation deficiency for a location that will minimize climatic risk in that location. In this methodology, a system approach is followed by applying non-linear programming. The non-linear programming system is formulated by defining future climatic risk as the objective function where the risk is a non-linear function of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, where vulnerability is a linear combination of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The system is restricted by seven constraints composed of different combinations of hazard, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The model can be applied in any part of the world, for any climatic hazard, and for any time domain. In this study, the model is applied in Bangladesh coastal zone to compute adaptation deficiency required to be filled to minimize mid-century storm surge risk in the identified hotspots. The results show that out of 20 identified storm surge risk hotspots in Bangladesh coastal zone, cyclone shelter has the maximum adaptation deficiency in 10 hotspots followed by plantation in 8 hotspots. The output from the model can be used by the policy makers to decide on the most appropriate investment options for risk-based planning that will minimize future risks in the identified hotspots. The model shows the risk limit below which risk cannot be reduced. Any investment attempt on adaptation to reduce the risk beyond this limit will disrupt the system equilibrium and will make this investment a surplus. | Akter, M; Haque, A; Karim, DS; Rahman, M; Salehin, M; Kabir, R; Alim, MA; ul Haq, MA | Development of an adaptation model by applying non-linear programming to compute adaptation deficiency in climatic hotspots | Progress In Disaster Science | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2021.100201 |
This paper explores the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors about emerging hazards, environmental change, and relocation among community groups in Utqiagvik (Barrow) of the North Slope Borough (NSB), Alaska. This region has been experiencing accelerating erosion and warmer temperatures, permafrost thawing, more frequent and intense storm surges, and increased maritime traffic and extractive industries with ice loss, with direct or cascading effects on the mixed ethnic and indigenous communities. This paper used engagement activities (Participatory Applied Theater) and qualitative approaches (focus groups) during three consecutive summers 2016-2018 to evaluate the risk perceptions and in-terpretations towards coastal changes and relocation as an adaptive response in this U.S. strategic yet remote location. Each focus group session started with risk ranking activities about regional hazards to assess knowledge and perceptions of risk, followed by an interactive script reading of an In & SIM;upiat disaster legend to facilitate discussion about risk reduction options and engagement with the survey questions. Focus groups were audio recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using qualitative data analysis software Nvivo and a hybrid coding strategy. Results indicate that relocation is considered by some participants but is not planned for nor implemented by community groups, families, or the local government to reduce the hazard risks. However, widespread recognition of accelerated hazards and environmental changes, and the need for adaptation could lead to consideration of relocation in the future. This study provides a case of disaster risk reduction in a remote place with unique place-specific char-acteristics (e.g., particular forms of subsistence, corporate monopolies, Traditional Ecological Knowledge, and social organizations), but also shaped by significant external influences, accompanied by a changing landscape of risk from the slow and rapid onset of environmental changes. | Garland, A; Bukvic, A; Maton-Mosurska, A | Capturing complexity: Environmental change and relocation in the North Slope Borough, Alaska | Climate Risk Management | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100460 |
The growing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have placed cities at the forefront of the human, social, economic, and ecological impacts of climate change. Extreme heat, extended freeze, excessive precipitation, and/or prolong drought impacts neighborhoods disproportionately across heterogenous urban geographies. Underserved, underrepresented, and marginalized communities are more likely to bear the burden of increased exposure to adverse climate impacts while simultaneously facing power asymmetries in access to the policy and knowledge production process. Knowledge co-production is one framework that seeks to address this convergence of disproportionate climate impact exposure and disenfranchised communities. Co-production is increasingly used in sustainability and resilience research to ask questions and develop solutions with, by, and for those communities that are most impacted. By weaving research, planning, evaluation, and policy in an iterative cycle, knowledge and action can be more closely coupled. However, the practice of co-production often lacks reflexivity in ways that can transform the science and policy of urban resilience to address equity more directly. With this, we ask what kind of co-production mechanism encourage academic and non-academic partners to reflect and scrutinize their underlying assumptions, existing institutional arrangements, and practices? How can these efforts identify and acknowledge the contradictions of co-production to reduce climate impacts in vulnerable communities? This paper presents a framework for reflexive co-production and assesses three modes of co-production for urban resilience in Austin, Texas, USA. These include a multi-hazard risk mapping initiative, a resident-driven community indicator system for adaptive capacity, and a neighborhood household preparedness guide. We establish a set of functional and transformational criteria from which to evaluate co-production and assess each initiative across the criteria. We conclude with some recommendations that can advance reflexive co-production for urban resilience. | Bixler, RP; Coudert, M; Richter, SM; Jones, JM; Pulido, CL; Akhavan, N; Bartos, M; Passalacqua, P; Niyogi, D | Reflexive co-production for urban resilience: Guiding framework and experiences from Austin, Texas | Frontiers In Sustainable Cities | https://doi.org/10.3389/frsc.2022.1015630 |
Research and policy analyses of climate change adaptation in Africa are often centre to examine adjustments in agricultural operations. This mainly bases on a misconception that rural households merely depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. This research aimed at positioning livelihood (farm and non-farm activities) as the centre of climate adaptation strategies to better understand rural households' adaptation strategic options and capacities, using two rural communities in the Northern highlands of Ethiopia. The result showed that rural households have broader options both in farm and non-farm strategies for combating adverse climate condition than previously reported. A strong and positive association are found between wealth indicators such as farm size (0.08) and productive assets (0.0917) with farm-level adaptation strategies such as short maturing crop and irrigation. Non-farm adaptation strategies (such as business activities and wage employment) are, mainly, influenced by household demographic characteristics such as age of the household head (0.01) and adult household size (0.09). This indicates that there is no specific adaptation strategy panacea for rural households. Rather, rural households use a mix of strategies to meet the particular agro-ecological settings (for farm-level adaptation strategies), and infrastructure and the location of the community, which enable to access market and other services (for non-farm adaptation strategies). Thus, national level climate policies and strategies need to be tailored to address the specific agro-ecology, and infrastructure of the local area and the socio-economic context of the households in the two communities. In this regard, the different levels of government and nongovernmental organizations should provide more adaptation measures on agricultural extension services, access to loans, roads, transport, market, knowledge and creation of wage employment and business opportunities in the vicinity of rural communities and its surrounding towns. | Adamseged, ME; Kebede, SW | Are farmers' climate change adaptation strategies understated? Evidence from two communities in Northern Ethiopian Highlands | Climate Services | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100369 |
Climate change is severely damaging the agricultural system of many food producing regions worldwide. Small/subsistent livestock herders are the most vulnerable and less resilient group towards climatic disasters within South Asian region including Pakistan. The adoption of climate-smart practices would be beneficial for small livestock herders because of its potential to ensure food security, improve income, and sustain development simultaneously. The purpose of this paper is to investigate factors influencing small livestock herders' adaptation decisions towards changing climate by conducting field-based research. We intend to understand how institutional factors, risk perceptions, adaptations, and personal constraints affect the adaptation decisions related to climate change mitigation and choice of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a primary data set of 405 small livestock herders from Punjab, Pakistan was used. The regression results of empirical models reveal the probability of adopting specific climate change strategies. The study results showed that zero adaptation (non-adoption) to climate change is higher when there is low literacy rate, less experience, nuclear family system, lack of institutional services, and low level of risk perception about climate change. The marginal outcome showed that the livestock herders with positive risk perception and access to the institutional services do participate more frequently in a higher number of adaptations options for economic and ecological benefits. Therefore, it is suggested that government and other development actors should strengthen institutions for trust building among local community groups and to reduce individuals' risks. Moreover, effective insurance schemes could facilitate small livestock herders to keep less but more productive livestock. The study recommends building viable and potential weather index insurance schemes which will result meaningful marginal scale benefits for smallholders. Finally, the results of major constraints suggest that it is necessary to provide awareness of climatic vulnerabilities, timely information delivery, and adequate financial facilities to offset resource constraints of livestock herders in order to adopt sustainable strategies at their farms. | Faisal, M; Xia, CP; Abbas, A; Raza, MH; Akhtar, S; Ajmal, MA; Ali, A | Do risk perceptions and constraints influence the adoption of climate change practices among small livestock herders in Punjab, Pakistan? | Environmental Science And Pollution Research | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13771-3 |
Individual actions to avoid, benefit from, or cope with climate change impacts partly shape adaptation; much research on adaptation has focused at the systems level, overlooking drivers of individual responses. Theoretical frameworks and empirical studies of environmental behavior identify a complex web of cognitive, affective, and evaluative factors that motivate stewardship. We explore the relationship between knowledge of, and adaptation to, widespread, climate-induced tree mortality to understand the cognitive (i.e., knowledge and learning), affective (i.e., attitudes and place attachment), and evaluative (i.e., use values) factors that influence how individuals respond to climate-change impacts. From 43 semistructured interviews with forest managers and users in a temperate forest, we identified distinct responses to local, climate-induced environmental changes that we then categorized as either behavioral or psychological adaptations. Interviewees developed a depth of knowledge about the dieback through a combination of direct, place-based experiences and indirect, mediated learning through social interactions. Knowing that the dieback was associated with climate change led to different adaptive responses among the interviewees, although knowledge alone did not explain this variation. Forest users reported psychological adaptations to process negative attitudes; these adaptations were spurred by knowledge of the causes, losses of intangible values, and impacts to a species to which they held attachment. Behavioral adaptations exclusive to a high level of knowledge included actions such as using the forests to educate others or changing transportation behaviors to reduce personal energy consumption. Managers integrated awareness of the dieback and its dynamics across spatial scales into current management objectives. Our findings suggest that adaptive management may occur from the bottom up, as individual managers implement new practices in advance of policies. As knowledge of climate-change impacts in local environments increases, resource users may benefit from programs and educational interventions that facilitate coping strategies. | Oakes, LE; Ardoin, NM; Lambin, EF | I know, therefore I adapt? Complexities of individual adaptation to climate-induced forest dieback in Alaska | Ecology And Society | https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08464-210240 |
This paper examines the role farmers' health plays as an element of adaptive capacity. The study examines which of twenty aspects of adaptation may be related to overall health outcomes, controlling for demographic and on-farm-factors in health problems. The analysis is based on 3,993 farmers' responses to a national survey of climate risk and adaptation. Hierarchical linear regression modelling was used examine the extent to which, in a multivariate analysis, the use of adaptive practices was predictively associated with self-assessed health, taking into account the farmer's rating of whether their health was a barrier to undertaking farm work. We present two models, one excluding pre-existing health (model 1) and one including pre-existing health (model 2). The first model accounted for 21% of the variance. In this model better health was most strongly predicted by an absence of on-farm risk, greater financial viability, greater debt pressures, younger age and a desire to continue farming. Social capital (trust and reciprocity) was moderately associated with health as was the intention to adopt more sustainable practices. The second model (including the farmers' health as a barrier to undertaking farm work) accounted for 43% of the variance. Better health outcomes were most strongly explained, in order of magnitude, by the absence of pre-existing health problems, greater access to social support, greater financial viability, greater debt pressures, a desire to continue farming and the condition of on-farm resources. Model 2 was a more parsimonious model (only nine predictors, compared with 15 in model 1), and explained twice as much variance in health outcomes. These results suggest that (i) pre-existing health problems are a very important factor to consider when designing adaptation programs and policies and (ii) these problems may mediate or modify the relationship between adaptation and health. | Berry, HL; Hogan, A; Ng, SP; Parkinson, A | Farmer Health and Adaptive Capacity in the Face of Climate Change and Variability. Part 1: Health as a Contributor to Adaptive Capacity and as an Outcome from Pressures Coping with Climate Related Adversities | International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health | https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph8104039 |
The world is currently facing disruption of the climate system related to global warming. Climate is a crucial factor in ecosystem assessment. Benin is considered a vulnerable area, particularly its south, which is a coastal zone. The current study evaluated the impact of climate on ecosystems in the Oueme basin. An understanding of indicator difference between 2000 and 2016 was provided. Afterwards, systems to calculate the sensitivity index (S) to accurately identify the extremely sensitive area within the basin were designed for 2016. Indeed, detecting sensitive areas is a suitable vehicle to promote sustainability. Then, using ten indicators, mainly obtained from satellite images, grouped into three factors (climate, land use, and warming), and based on multicriteria methods, specifically the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and principal component analysis (PCA), the index S was performed. Results revealed decreases in normalized difference water index (NDWI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and increases in land surface temperature (LST), normalized difference building index (NDBI), and potential evapotranspiration (PET). According to the AHP system, percentages of 39%, 46%, and 15% were determined to be the lowly, moderately, and extremely sensitive areas. In comparison, the PCA system identified ratios of 44%, 41%, and 15% as, respectively, the lowly, moderately, and extremely sensitive areas. Spatially and regardless of the established systems, the southern Oueme basin (Littoral, Atlantique, and Oueme) was consistently identified as extremely sensitive. In contrast, the northern Oueme basin (Donga and Borgou) was stable. Referring to Pearson's correlation, climate (extremely) and land use (moderately) were highlighted to be considered threats to ecosystems in the Oueme basin. | Dossou, JF; Li, XX; Kang, H; Boré, A | Impact of climate change on the Oueme basin in Benin | Global Ecology And Conservation | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01692 |
There is dearth of studies on climate change based vulnerabilities of the urban people. It has been a matter of widespread debate whether nature of livelihood has any role to play in regulating the vulnerabilities of an individual. To find an answer, in a first ever attempt, this study tested three different approaches viz. Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) models and Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) to estimate climate change vulnerability of urban communities from various livelihoods in Guwahati city, Assam, India. Guwahati is considered to be the gateway to the seven North Eastern states of India and therefore strategically very important for this region. A structured survey was conducted involving 200 stakeholders from various livelihood sectors viz. construction workers, perishable item sellers, farmers, taxi/auto driver/rickshaw puller/coolie, tea stall/fast food seller, gas cylinder deliverymen, street vendors/sales-persons, traffic police/police, doctors and boatmen. Data was systematically aggregated and examined using the above-mentioned composite indices. The differential vulnerabilities were compared and results suggested that the farmers were the most vulnerable community by virtue of their high sensitivity towards health, economic losses, exacerbated by their poor adaptive capacity toward unpredictable climatic variations. Doctors were the least vulnerable owing to their higher levels of awareness and adaptive capacity. These results reiterated the importance of awareness and access to resources in regulating vulnerability. The vulnerability scores also revealed that LVI and Model II (M II) of LVI IPCC approaches were the two most suitable indices and could be used for comparative vulnerability analysis. These pragmatic approaches can be used to assess the community vulnerabilities and could stimulate robust Climate Smart Urban Planning (CSUP). | Paul, A; Deka, J; Gujre, N; Rangan, L; Mitra, S | Does nature of livelihood regulate the urban community's vulnerability to climate change? Guwahati city, a case study from North East India | Journal Of Environmental Management | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109591 |
This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the extent to which climate and climatic change can have a negative impact on societies by triggering migration, or even contribute to conflict. It summarizes results from the transdisciplinary project Climate of migration (funded 2010-2014), whose innovative title was created by Franz Mauelshagen and Uwe Lubken. The overall goal of this project was to analyze the relation between climatic and socioeconomic parameters and major migration waves from southwest Germany to North America during the 19th century. The article assesses the extent to which climatic conditions triggered these migration waves. The century investigated was in general characterized by the Little Ice Age with three distinct cooling periods, causing major glacier advances in the alpine regions and numerous climatic extremes such as major floods, droughts and severe winter. Societal changes were tremendous, marked by the warfare during the Napoleonic era (until 1815), the abolition of serfdom (1817), the bourgeois revolution (1847/48), economic freedom (1862), the beginning of industrialization accompanied by large-scale rural-urban migration resulting in urban poverty, and finally by the foundation of the German Empire in 1871. The presented study is based on quantitative data and a qualitative, information-based discourse analysis. It considers climatic conditions as well as socioeconomic and political issues, leading to the hypothesis of a chain of effects ranging from unfavorable climatic conditions to a decrease in crop yields to rising cereal prices and finally to emigration. These circumstances were investigated extensively for the peak emigration years identified with each migration wave. Furthermore, the long-term relations between emigration and the prevailing climatic conditions, crop yields and cereal prices were statistically evaluated with a sequence of linear models which were significant with explanatory power between 22 and 38%. | Glaser, R; Himmelsbach, I; Bösmeier, A | Climate of migration? How climate triggered migration from southwest Germany to North America during the 19th century | Climate Of The Past | https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1573-2017 |
Climate change issues have attracted much attention in recent years. To date, the related research has focused mostly on the national and regional impacts of climate change. Taiwan, an island state, has relatively high vulnerability to the consequences of climate change, and its western coastal areas are particularly vulnerable. Yunlin County, with 13 townships that are all prone to flooding, will be highly affected by climate change. In this study, the 13 townships are grouped into four categories of synthesized vulnerability and ecological footprint (EF): low synthesized vulnerability/low EF (Linnei), high synthesized vulnerability/low EF (Sihu), low synthesized vulnerability/high EF (Mailiao), and high synthesized vulnerability/high EF (Huwei). Ecological footprint was used to measure the human demand for resources and ecological services, as well as a way to understand the relationships among human living habits, consumption patterns, and natural capital consumption. Then, the relationships among attitudes to climate change, risk perceptions, and coping behavioral intentions in these four categories were examined using structural equation models (SEM). A stratified random sampling method was used to collect 582 valid questionnaires. In addition to descriptive statistical analyses, the results of the SEMs for the four sensitivity categories indicate that different townships exhibit different causal relationships among attitudes to climate change, risk perceptions, and behavioral intentions. These findings can support appropriate strategies for governments, communities, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) for ensuring that areas of various sensitivities can cope. However, more vulnerable townships exhibit no significant positive relationship between attitudes to and knowledge of climate change, place attachment, and their adaptation behavioral intentions in the face of disaster risk perceptions. Therefore, in areas with high vulnerability, special attention should be paid to making the residents improve their adaptive behavioral intentions in the face of disaster risk perceptions. | Lee, YJ | Relationships among Environmental Attitudes, Risk Perceptions, and Coping Behavior: A Case Study of Four Environmentally Sensitive Townships in Yunlin County, Taiwan | Sustainability | https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082663 |
Climate change has now become a universal truth. Its impact on agriculture is a growing concern in the world today. Being third most vulnerable country to climate change, agrarian economy of Pakistan seems to be at stake. The increasing threat of global warming is also on the way. To this end, a pioneering research work was conducted to trace climate change-agriculture linkages through Ricardian regression by employing gridded data sets of climatic variables. Economic valuation as articulated through spatial autoregressive specification revealed that climate change has significantly decreased Net Farm Revenues (NFRs) in irrigated and rain-fed regions. However, farmers in the irrigated region were found to be the acute sufferer of climate change which implicitly shows the imbalance in the stock of irrigation water. Estimated threshold levels for mean temperature and diurnal temperature were quantified to be 19.17 degrees C and 13.88 degrees C. Results indicate that on an overall basis, every increase in mean temperature significantly decreased NFRs per hectare by Rs. 8556 (US $70). But in the irrigated region, every increase in mean temperature significantly decreased NFRs per hectare by Rs 30,705 (US $256). The nonsignificant decrease in the rain-fed region could not be proved statistically. It was further estimated that increase in diurnal temperature significantly reduced NFRs by Rs. 2401 (US $20) in Pakistan, Rs. 9635 (US $80) in the irrigated region and Rs. 8834 (US $74) in the rain-fed region. The study suggested a mixed farming system as an adaptation measure in all kinds of settings while cooperative farming was identified for the rain-fed region. Similarly, updated agriculture services through various capacity building programmes particularly about climate resilient researches and rural literacy programmes may help in developing sustainable agriculture in Pakistan. | Sadiq, S; Saboor, A; Mohsin, AQ; Khalid, A; Tanveer, F | Ricardian analysis of climate change-agriculture linkages in Pakistan | Climate And Development | https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2018.1531746 |
Reducing vulnerability to climate change and enhancing the long-term coping capacities of rural or urban settlements to negative climate change impacts have become urgent issues in developing countries. Developing countries do not have the means to cope with climate hazards and their economies are highly dependent on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water, and coastal zones. Like most countries in Southern Africa, Zimbabwe suffers from climate-induced disasters. Therefore, this study maps critical aspects required for setting up a strong financial foundation for sustainable climate adaptation in Zimbabwe. It discusses the frameworks required for sustainable climate adaptation finance and suggests the direction for success in leveraging global climate financing towards building a low-carbon and climate-resilient Zimbabwe. The study involved a document review and analysis and stakeholder consultation methodological approach. The findings revealed that Zimbabwe has been significantly dependent on global finance mechanisms to mitigate the effects of climate change as its domestic finance mechanisms have not been fully explored. Results revealed the importance of partnership models between the state, individuals, civil society organisations, and agencies. Local financing institutions such as the Infrastructure Development Bank of Zimbabwe (IDBZ) have been set up. This operates a Climate Finance Facility (GFF), providing a domestic financial resource base. A climate change bill is also under formulation through government efforts. However, numerous barriers limit the adoption of adaptation practices, services, and technologies at the scale required. The absence of finance increases the vulnerability of local settlements (rural or urban) to extreme weather events leading to loss of life and property and compromised adaptive capacity. Therefore, the study recommends an adaptation financing framework aligned to different sectoral policies that can leverage diverse opportunities such as blended climate financing. The framework must foster synergies for improved impact and implementation of climate change adaptation initiatives for the country. | Chirisa, I; Gumbo, T; Gundu-Jakarasi, VN; Zhakata, W; Karakadzai, T; Dipura, R; Moyo, T | Interrogating Climate Adaptation Financing in Zimbabwe: Proposed Direction | Sustainability | https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126517 |
Currently, Sub-Sahara is experiencing increased frequency of disasters either as floods or droughts which depletes the scarce resources available to sustain increasing populations. Success in preventing food shortages in the African continent can only be achieved by understanding the vulnerability and risk of the majority of smallholder farmers under rainfed and supplementary irrigation coupled with appropriate interventions. Increased frequency of floods, droughts and dry spells pose an increasing threat to the smallholder farmers' food security and water resources availability in B72A quaternary catchment of the Olifants river basin in South Africa. This paper links maize crop yield risk and smallholder farmer vulnerability arising from droughts by applying a set of interdisciplinary indicators (physical and socio-economic) encompassing gender and institutional vulnerabilities. For the study area, the return period of droughts and dry spells was 2 years. The growing season for maize crop was 121 days on average. Soil water deficit during critical growth stages may reduce potential yields by up to 62%, depending on the length and severity of the moisture deficit. To minimize grain yield loss and avoid total crop failures from intra-seasonal dry spells, farmers applied supplementary irrigation either from river water or rainwater harvested into small reservoirs. Institutional vulnerability was evidenced by disjointed water management institutions with lack of comprehension of roles of higher level institutions by lower level ones. Women are most hit by droughts as they derived more than 90% of their family income from agriculture activities. An enhanced understanding of the vulnerability and risk exposure will assist in developing technologies and policies that conform to the current livelihood strategies of smallholder, resource-constrained farmers. Development of such knowledge base for a catchment opens avenues for computational modeling of the impacts of different types of disasters under different scenarios. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | Magombeyi, MS; Taigbenu, AE | Crop yield risk analysis and mitigation of smallholder farmers at quaternary catchment level: Case study of B72A in Olifants river basin, South Africa | Physics And Chemistry Of The Earth | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2008.06.050 |
Major strides have been made in the development of remote sensing, reanalysis, and model-based earth observations (EOs), which can be used for long-term climate variability mapping, as well as real-time environmental monitoring and forecasting. Such EOs are particularly valuable for environmental decision-making (e.g., for environmental resources management and disaster mitigation) in the Eastern and Southern Africa (E & SA) region, where ground-based EOs are sparse. Nonetheless, operational application of those EOs to inform decision-making in the region remains limited. This paper reports on a recently concluded (as of June 2019) NASA SERVIR-supported Applied Science Team project that contributed to the uptake of EO applications to inform decision-making in this region. This project was conducted in close collaboration with the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD)-the NASA SERVIR regional hub in E & SA. The capacity-building efforts leveraged RCMRD's existing environmental service capacity, their long experience in capacity building in the region, and their extensive network of regional partners, with the goal of increasing RCMRD and their regional partners' ability to uptake EOs to enhance their environmental services and, hence, improve the environmental decision-making process. The project focused on: (1) Transfer of technology-Transition and implementation of web-based tools to RCMRD to allow easy processing and visualization of EOs and (2) Capacity training-training of representatives from regional and national environmental service agencies in EO application based on targeted case studies. Here, we describe these capacity-building efforts, provide specific examples to demonstrate the benefits of those efforts in terms of enhanced uptake of EOs, and provide recommendations for furthering the uptake of EOs in the region and beyond. | Shukla, S; Macharia, D; Husak, GJ; Landsfeld, M; Nakalembe, CL; Blakeley, SL; Adams, EC; Juliet, H | Enhancing Access and Usage of Earth Observations in Environmental Decision-Making in Eastern and Southern Africa Through Capacity Building | Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems | https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.504063 |
The impacts of hazard events such as extreme rainfall, heatwaves, and droughts are substantial and represent an increasing threat over India. Effective adaptations to these hazards require an in-depth understanding of their physical and socioeconomic drivers. While hazard characteristic models have been substantially improved, compelling evidence of the spatio-temporal analysis of social vulnerability (SoV) throughout India are still lacking. Here, we provide the first analysis of the SoV to disasters at a national-scale for the past two decades using a robust data envelopment analysis framework, which eliminates subjectivity associated with indicator weighting. An interesting result is that SoV has decreased over past decade, which is primarily due to an increase in literacy rate and conversion rate of marginalized groups to main working population, and a decrease in child population due to use of birth control. Contrarily, while analyzing hydro-climatic hazards over India, we notice an increase in probability of their occurrence over significantly large portions all over India, particularly in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Odisha, North-Eastern states and Telangana. The spatial pattern of increase is surprisingly similar for all three considered hazards, viz. extreme precipitation, heatwaves, and drought. Combining the information from SoV and hazard analysis, we further estimate the risk to hydro-climatic extremes. A notable observation is the synchronized increase in hazard and risk in these regions, indicating that hazards are contributing significantly to the increasing risk and not SoV. Further analyses of mortalities induced by different hazards indicate that deaths per million on a decadal-scale have either decreased or remained constant in recent decades, which suggests that mortality is decreasing despite the increasing risk of hazards over India. This also indicates an enhanced capacity for adaptation, which can be attributed to the decadal decrease in SoV observed in the present study. | Vittal, H; Karmakar, S; Ghosh, S; Murtugudde, R | A comprehensive India-wide social vulnerability analysis: highlighting its influence on hydro-climatic risk | Environmental Research Letters | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6499 |
Tropical cyclones (TCs) have devastating impacts and are responsible for significant damage. Consequently, for TC-induced direct economic loss (DEL) attribution all factors associated with risk (i.e. hazard, exposure and vulnerability) must be examined. This research quantifies the relationship between TC-induced DELs and maximum wind speed, asset value and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita using a regression model with TC records from 2000 to 2015 for China's mainland area. The coefficient of the maximum wind speed term indicates that a doubling of the maximum wind speed increases DELs by 225% [97%, 435%] when the other two variables are held constant. The coefficient of the asset value term indicates that a doubling of asset value exposed to TCs increases DELs by 79% [58%, 103%]; thus, if hazard and vulnerability are assumed to be constant in the future, then a dramatic escalation in TC-induced DELs will occur given the increase in asset value, suggesting that TC-prone areas with rapid urbanization and wealth accumulation will inevitably be subject to higher risk. Reducing the asset value exposure via land-use planning, for example, is important for decreasing TC risk. The coefficient of GDP per capita term indicates that a doubling in GDP per capita could decrease DELs by 54% [39%, 66%]. Because accumulated assets constantly increase people's demand for improved security, stakeholders must invest in risk identification, early warning systems, emergency management and other effective prevention measures with increasing income to reduce vulnerability. This research aims to quantitatively connect TC risk (expected DELs, specifically) to physical and socioeconomic drivers and emphasizes how human dimensions could contribute to TC risk. Moreover, the model can be used to estimate TC risk under climate change and future socioeconomic development in the context of China. | Ye, MQ; Wu, JD; Liu, WH; He, X; Wang, CL | Dependence of tropical cyclone damage on maximum wind speed and socioeconomic factors | Environmental Research Letters | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9be2 |
Natural and human processes have threatened human access to sufficient and clean water. In areas prone to natural disasters, governments play a vital role in the proactive development of measures prioritizing human rights to water. This article is a case study of a series of tragic events in 2011 that led to a landslide in the Cervantes neighborhood in Manizales, Colombia. The disaster left the city and surrounding municipalities without water for over 20 days; gas and power were intermittent during this period; 145 people were displaced by the disaster; and 48 died. There is still a debate about whether this disaster was caused by nature or people. Our goal was to determine stakeholders' views and perceptions regarding the causes leading to the magnitude of this tragedy. The Q methodology (Q) was employed as a valuable qualitative and quantitative empirical tool to identify, analyze, and compare perception groups that emerged from the stakeholder participant pool of this case study. The Q allowed us to determine critical information for disaster mitigation that was based on the similarities and differences in viewpoints regarding the causes that influenced the magnitude of the event. The three social perception groups that surfaced from this study reflect the causes believed to have affected the magnitude and after effects of the events, namely (1) the lack of proactive measures to prepare for future landslide events; (2) the portrayal of nature as the main contributor to the magnitude and after effects of the disaster, while portraying the utilities company as a non-contributor; and (3) the apparent effort to avoid the incrimination of specific entities and authorities. Natural forces are more powerful than human, but measures can be taken to mitigate the magnitude of natural disasters. It is important for policy makers to ensure that the interests of all stakeholders are represented in actions to mitigate natural disasters in the city of Manizales. | Restrepo-Osorio, DL; Brown, JC | A Q methodology application on disaster perceptions for adaptation and resiliency in an Andean watershed symposium: water and climate in Latin America | Journal Of Environmental Studies And Sciences | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13412-018-0510-9 |
In a post-Paris Agreement world, where global warming has been limited to 1.5 or 2 degrees C, adaptation is still needed to address the impacts of climate change. To reinforce the links between such climate actions and sustainable development, adaptation responses should be aligned with goals of environmental conservation, economic development and societal wellbeing. This paper uses a multi-sectoral integrated modelling platform to evaluate the impacts of a + 1.5 degrees C world to the end of the 21st century under alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for Europe. It evaluates the ability of adaptation strategies to concurrently improve a range of indicators, relating to sustainable development, under the constraints imposed by the contrasting SSPs. The spatial synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development indicators (SDIs) are also evaluated across Europe. We find that considerable impacts are present even under low-end climate change, affecting especially biodiversity. Even when the SDIs improve with adaptation, residual impacts of climate change affect all the SDIs, apart from sustainable production. All but one of the adaptation strategies have unintended consequences on one or multiple SDIs, although these differ substantially between strategies, regions and socio-economic scenarios. The exception was the strategy to increase social and human capital. Other strategies that lead to successful adaptation with limited unintended consequences are those aiming at adoption of sustainable behaviours and implementation of sustainable water management. This work stresses the continuing importance of adaptation even under 1.5 degrees C or 2 degrees C of global warming. Further, it demonstrates the need for policy-makers to develop holistic adaptation strategies that take account of the synergies and trade-offs between sectoral adaptation strategies, sectors and regions, and are also constrained by scenario context to avoid over-optimistic assessments. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. | Papadimitriou, L; Holman, IP; Dunford, R; Harrison, PA | Trade-offs are unavoidable in multi-objective adaptation even in a post-Paris Agreement world | Science Of The Total Environment | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134027 |
A quantified index of disaster vulnerability can help policymakers identify the most vulnerable regions for priority interventions. Many studies have assessed vulnerability to floods across different geographical and ecological regions around the globe. Odisha is a state in India prone to frequent floods, but few studies have assessed flood vulnerability in terms of a quantified composite vulnerability index in respect of Odisha. The present study attempts to develop flood vulnerability sub-indices and a composite Flood Vulnerability Index to analyse the intensity of flood vulnerability in Odisha across six coastal districts. The index is constructed by incorporating three factors (exposure, susceptibility, and resilience) with respect to four domains i.e. social, economic, physical, and environmental of disaster vulnerability. The proxy variable for each factor is identified through both inductive and deductive approaches, and a composite index is constructed as a geometric mean of sub-indices. The results show that Kendrapara district is more vulnerable to flood impacts in social and physical domains due to its high exposure and sensitivity and comparatively low adaptive capacity. With regard to economic domain, Bhadrak district is substantially more vulnerable, while Cuttack is least vulnerable. On the other hand, Puri and Baleshwar districts are found most and least vulnerable in respect of the environmental domain. Both exposure and sensitivity indicators are the key driving factors of intensifying vulnerability in each domain of the districts concerned. Based on a composite vulnerability index, Kendrapara and Cuttack districts turned out to be most and least vulnerable to floods among the coastal districts of Odisha. It is evident from the analysis that the intensity of vulnerability of a community depends more on the state of social, economic, physical and environmental conditions than the mere magnitude or frequency of floods. These findings can help policymakers prioritise limited resource allocation to districts and domains. | Padhan, N; Madheswaran, S | An integrated assessment of vulnerability to floods in coastal Odisha: a district-level analysis | Natural Hazards | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05641-z |
Recent attention to the role of Indigenous knowledge (IK) in environmental monitoring, research and decision-making is likely to attract new people to this field of work. Advancing the bringing together of IK and science in a way that is desirable to IK holders can lead to successful and inclusive research and decision-making. We used the Delphi technique with 18 expert participants who were IK holders or working closely with IK from across the Arctic to examine the drivers of progress and limitations to the use of IK along with science to inform decision-making related to wildlife, reindeer herding and the environment. We also used this technique to identify participants' experiences of scientists' misconceptions concerning IK. Participants had a strong focus on transformative change relating to the structure of institutions, politics, rights, involvement, power and agency over technical issues advancing or limiting progress (e.g. new technologies and language barriers). Participants identified two modes of desirable research: coproducing knowledge with scientists and autonomous Indigenous-led research. They highlighted the need for more collaborative and coproduction projects to allow further refinement of approaches and more funding to support autonomous, Indigenous-led research. Most misconceptions held by scientists concerning IK that were identified by participants related to the spatial, temporal and conceptual scope of IK, and the perceived need to validate IK using Western science. Our research highlights some of the issues that need to be addressed by all participants in research and decision-making involving IK and science. While exact approaches will need to be tailored to specific social-ecological contexts, consideration of these broader concerns revealed by our analysis are likely to be central to effective partnerships. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. | Wheeler, HC; Danielsen, F; Fidel, M; Hausner, V; Horstkotte, T; Johnson, N; Lee, O; Mukherjee, N; Amos, A; Ashthorn, H; Ballari, O; Behe, C; Breton-Honeyman, K; Retter, GB; Buschman, V; Jakobsen, P; Johnson, F; Lyberth, B; Parrott, JA; Pogodaev, M; Sulyandziga, R; Vronski, N | The need for transformative changes in the use of Indigenous knowledge along with science for environmental decision-making in the Arctic | People And Nature | https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10131 |
Harsh climatic conditions have always marked the living conditions of smallholders in the Peruvian Andes. Nowadays, farmers see their livelihoods more and more challenged by environmental and economic changes. These factors result in adaptations of their livelihood strategies that can be classified in on-farm production and income-generating strategies. The study's objective was to investigate income-generating and production strategies of livestock keepers in the Central Andes of Peru. Farmers' perceptions of their livestock and perceived effects of climate change were investigated. Therefore, 46 livestock farmers from the provinces of Pasco and Daniel Carri ' on were interviewed. Most farmers diversify their livestock, keeping llamas, alpacas, sheep, and cattle in different combinations at once. Only a few farmers are specialized and keep alpacas in high numbers. A diversified production strategy decreases vulnerability regarding environmental and economic shocks. The main reasons for changing the herd compositions were economic and environmentally caused reasons such as a lack of pasture and declining prices for sheep wool. All farmers see climate change as a production constraint, and the ones that can afford it have already tried to cope via the adoption of diverse adaptation strategies. Farmers seem to plan a shift towards a higher number of llamas as they are considered to be more resistant to changing climate. However, the market for llama products is small, and prices are low, so farmers cannot rely on sufficient incomes by only keeping llamas. More than half of the farmers work in non-farm activities. Farmers experience a high economic pressure to look for work outside their farms. Investments in infrastructure, better extension services, and capacity-building programs should be taken to support farmers to improve their livelihood. These strategies can help ensure that farmers are offered a perspective for their future in the High Andes. | Radolf, M; Wurzinger, M; Gutierrez, G | Livelihood and production strategies of livestock keepers and their perceptions on climate change in the Central Peruvian Andes | Small Ruminant Research | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smallrumres.2022.106763 |
Scenario development has been recognized as a potential method to explore future change and stimulate a reflective process that can contribute to more informed decision-making. The assessment process under IPBES (the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) has however shown that the current predominantly biophysical and economic models and scenario processes for exploring the future of biodiversity, ecosystem services and their contributions to human wellbeing are insufficient to capture the complexity and context-specific nature of the problems facing these sectors. Several important challenges have been identified that require a more in-depth analysis of where more imaginative scenario efforts can be undertaken to address this gap. In this paper, we identify six key characteristics necessary for scenario processes: adaptability across diverse contexts, inclusion of diverse knowledge and value systems, legitimate stakeholder engagement that foregrounds the role of power and politics, an ability to grapple with uncertainty, individual and collective thinking mechanisms and relevance to policy making. We compared four cases of imaginative, arts-based scenario processes that each offer aspects of meeting these criteria. These approaches emphasise the importance of engaging the imagination of those involved in a process and harnessing it as a tool for identifying and conceptualising more transformative future trajectories. Drawing on the existing literature, we argue that there is value in fostering more inclusive and creative participatory processes that acknowledge the importance of understanding multiple value systems and relationships in order to reimagine a more inclusive and just future. Based on this, we reflect on future research to understand the transformative role that imagination can play in altering and enhancing knowledge-making for global assessments, including IPBES. We conclude that creative scenario co-development processes that promote imagination and create an opening for more empathetic responses should be considered as complementary tools within the suite of methodologies used for future IPBES scenario development. | Pereira, L; Sitas, N; Ravera, F; Jimenez-Aceituno, A; Merrie, A | Building capacities for transformative change towards sustainability: Imagination in Intergovernmental Science-Policy Scenario Processes | Elementa-Science Of The Anthropocene | https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.374 |
Adequate and effective disaster preparedness in each sector is indispensable to abate disaster impacts and intensify disaster resilience in Bangladesh for achieving sustainable development goals by 2030. Though university students can play a significant role in promoting and strengthening disaster management activities in the community by sharing their knowledge and experience on disasters, very few studies focused on students' disaster preparedness. In this study, we assessed university students' perceived and actual disaster preparedness and explored the factors influencing disaster preparedness of male and female students. The cross-sectional survey method was adopted to collect 704 student respondents' data from the Dhaka University using a structured questionnaire by face-to-face interview. We found that university students perceived that they were moderately prepared for disaster; however, their actual disaster preparedness was relatively low. Disaster likelihood and disaster knowledge significantly influenced students' perceived and actual disaster preparedness. However, no statistically significant mean differences were found between the male and female respondents regarding their perceived and actual disaster preparedness. In addition, students with higher disaster knowledge were more likely to have a higher perceived and actual disaster preparedness. Moreover, gender-segregated multiple linear regression analyses showed that disaster knowledge was significantly associated with the male students' actual and perceived preparedness, and female students' perceived preparedness. Besides, disaster concern and university preparedness were significant predictors of the female students' perceived preparedness, whereas male students' perceived preparedness was significantly influenced by disaster likelihood and university preparedness. Therefore, it is recommended that disaster education should be introduced into the university curricula, including disaster management training, drills, and simulations. The study provides strong evidence of the need for developing a comprehensive disaster plan at the university and has policy implications. However, further research is needed to explore college and school students' disaster preparedness knowledge and practice in Bangladesh. | Hasan, MK; Moriom, M; Shuprio, SIM; Younos, TB; Chowdhury, MA | Exploring disaster preparedness of students at university in Bangladesh | Natural Hazards | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05080-2 |
Social vulnerability indicators seek to identify populations susceptible to hazards based on aggregated sociodemographic data. Vulnerability indices are rarely validated with disaster outcome data at broad spatial scales, making it difficult to develop effective national scale strategies to mitigate loss for vulnerable populations. This paper validates social vulnerability indicators using two flood outcomes: death and damage. Regression models identify sociodemographic factors associated with variation in outcomes from 11,629 non-coastal flood events in the USA (2008-2012), controlling for flood intensity using stream gauge data. We compare models with (i) socioeconomic variables, (ii) the composite social vulnerability index (SoVI), and (iii) flood intensity variables only. The SoVI explains a larger portion of the variance in death (AIC = 2829) and damage (R-2= 0.125) than flood intensity alone (death-AIC = 2894; damage-R-2= 0.089), and models with individual sociodemographic factors perform best (death-AIC = 2696; damage-R-2= 0.229). Socioeconomic variables correlated with death (rural counties with a high proportion of elderly and young) differ from those related to property damage (rural counties with high percentage of Black, Hispanic and Native American populations below the poverty line). Results confirm that social vulnerability influences death and damage from floods in the USA. Model results indicate that social vulnerability models related to specific hazards and outcomes perform better than generic social vulnerability indices (e.g., SoVI) in predicting non-coastal flood death and damage. Hazard- and outcome-specific indices could be used to better direct efforts to ameliorate flood death and damage towards the people and places that need it most. Future validation studies should examine other flood outcomes, such as evacuation, migration and health, across scales. | Tellman, B; Schank, C; Schwarz, B; Howe, PD; de Sherbinin, A | Using Disaster Outcomes to Validate Components of Social Vulnerability to Floods: Flood Deaths and Property Damage across the USA | Sustainability | https://doi.org/10.3390/su12156006 |
Collaboration barriers have been reported among the most frequent institutional constraints to adaptation. Yet, the growing literature on the topic has been largely descriptive and little attention has been placed on how to transform barriers into enablers for action. By taking a fragile socio-ecological lagoon system in Southern Mexico as a case study, the paper applies a social network analytical approach to: i) reveal the actual web of connections tying stakeholders through local governance arrangements; ii) identify shortcomings in multi-actor collaboration networks; and iii) propose ways to tackle them so that the full potential of adaptation can be exploited. The paper employs a mixed-method approach combining both a quantitative and qualitative Social Network Analysis (SNA). The quantitative SNA is used to assess the quality and strength of relationships among formal public organisations working on climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction in the site. The qualitative SNA is employed to both assess linking ties between formal organizations and local coastal communities potentially targeted with adaptation interventions, and bonding ties connecting community members. The approach proves to be useful to map the relational architecture of the system of interest and to reveal network characteristics that are important for collective action including: network fragmentation in subgroups; density of relations; centralization around a few actors. The actual topology of the network, as revealed, can then be compared with what is required for achieving societally desired adaptation outcomes and for identifying agents that can promote change. The paper acknowledges that a social analytical approach might be limited in unveiling the interests and motives behind actors' participation in the network, and that the latter ultimately determine actors' contribution in defining and enacting a joint solution for a common problem. However, the mixed-methods approach presented in this paper allows for gaining first insights on the way a mismatch between formal and informal institutions might drive socio-ecological systems towards inadequate adaptation outcomes. | Calliari, E; Michetti, M; Farnia, L; Rarnieri, E | A network approach for moving from planning to implementation in climate change adaptation: Evidence from southern Mexico | Environmental Science & Policy | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.11.025 |
This paper focuses on how scientific uncertainties about future peak flood flows and sea level rises are accounted for in long term strategic planning processes to adapt inland and coastal flood risk management in England to climate change. Combining key informant interviews (n = 18) with documentary analysis, it explores the institutional tensions between adaptive management approaches emphasising openness to uncertainty and to alternative policy options on the one hand and risk-based ones that close them down by transforming uncertainties into calculable risks whose management can be rationalized through cost-benefit analysis and nationally consistent, risk-based priority setting on the other hand. These alternative approaches to managing uncertainty about the first-order risks to society from future flooding are shaped by institutional concerns with managing the second-order, 'institutional' risks of criticism and blame arising from accountability for discharging those first-order risk management responsibilities. In the case of river flooding the poorly understood impacts of future climate change were represented with a simplistic adjustment to peak flow estimates, which proved robust in overcoming institutional resistance to making precautionary allowances for climate change in risk-based flood management, at least in part because its scientific limitations were acknowledged only partially. By contrast in the case of coastal flood risk management, greater scientific confidence led to successively more elaborate guidance on how to represent the science, which in turn led to inconsistency in implementation and increased the institutional risks involved in taking the uncertain effects of future sea level rise into account in adaptation planning and flood risk management. Comparative analysis of these two cases then informs some wider reflections about the tensions between adaptive and risk-based approaches, the role of institutional risk in climate change adaptation, and the importance of such institutional dynamics in shaping the framing uncertainties and policy responses to scientific knowledge about them. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. | Kuhlicke, C; Demeritt, D | Adaptive and risk-based approaches to climate change and the management of uncertainty and institutional risk: The case of future flooding in England | Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.01.007 |
Managing risks from extreme events will be a crucial component of climate change adaptation. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to assess future risks and quantify the benefits of adaptation options at a city-scale, with application to flood risk in Mumbai. In 2005, Mumbai experienced unprecedented flooding, causing direct economic damages estimated at almost two billion USD and 500 fatalities. Our findings suggest that by the 2080s, in a SRES A2 scenario, an 'upper bound' climate scenario could see the likelihood of a 2005-like event more than double. We estimate that total losses (direct plus indirect) associated with a 1-in-100 year event could triple compared with current situation (to $690-$1,890 million USD), due to climate change alone. Continued rapid urbanisation could further increase the risk level. The analysis also demonstrates that adaptation could significantly reduce future losses; for example, estimates suggest that by improving the drainage system in Mumbai, losses associated with a 1-in-100 year flood event today could be reduced by as much as 70%.,We show that assessing the indirect costs of extreme events is an important component of an adaptation assessment, both in ensuring the analysis captures the full economic benefits of adaptation and also identifying options that can help to manage indirect risks of disasters. For example, we show that by extending insurance to 100% penetration, the indirect effects of flooding could be almost halved. We conclude that, while this study explores only the upper-bound climate scenario, the risk-assessment core demonstrated in this study could form an important quantitative tool in developing city-scale adaptation strategies. We provide a discussion of sources of uncertainty and risk-based tools could be linked with decision-making approaches to inform adaptation plans that are robust to climate change. | Ranger, N; Hallegatte, S; Bhattacharya, S; Bachu, M; Priya, S; Dhore, K; Rafique, F; Mathur, P; Naville, N; Henriet, F; Herweijer, C; Pohit, S; Corfee-Morlot, J | An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai | Climatic Change | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9979-2 |
Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience enhancement and effectively reducing vulnerability to natural hazards in other regions. | Wei, YQ; Wang, SJ; Fang, YP; Nawaz, Z | Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau | Global And Planetary Change | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.08.017 |
Climate change (CC) is increasingly causing precarious and pervasive disruption to lives, livelihoods, and the environment. The Global South countries are vulnerable to CC impacts due to rapid urbanization, poverty, low resilience, and poor governance. While some countries have implemented measures to mitigate CC impacts, many strive to do so. Saudi Arabia is among the Global South countries with high per capita energy use and carbon emission. However, there is a dearth of studies that assess the impacts of CC for better mitigation efforts and decision-making. The present study is an effort to attend to this research need. This article uses experts-based survey (n = 12) to assess the impacts of CC on the Dammam Metropolitan Area using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The findings indicate that the highest ranked CC impacts based on priority weights are sea-level rise then coastal flooding, trailed by the threat to public health and low agricultural productivity. However, groundwater depletion and urban heat islands were deemed having the least impacts. Also, the experts ranked green infrastructure and sustainable transportation as more effective than green buildings in mitigating CC impacts in the study area. The study recommends that green infrastructure (GI), sustainable transportation (ST), and sustainable urban form (SUF) are more appropriate mitigation measures to CC impacts in Saudi Arabia and similar geographical regions. Because CC impacts on humans and the environment are widespread, mitigation and adaptation efforts can assist in lowering their adverse effects and promoting environmental sustainability. (c) 2022 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-nd/4.0/). | Dano, UL; Abubakar, IR; AlShihri, FS; Ahmed, SMS; Alrawaf, TI; Alshammari, MS | A multi-criteria assessment of climate change impacts on urban sustainability in Dammam Metropolitan Area, Saudi Arabia | Ain Shams Engineering Journal | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2022.102062 |
The current urban challenge is enhancing, maintaining and improving the urban resilience of cities. However, how can cities as complex and adaptive systems be or become resilient? There are specific capacities/qualities that urban systems should have to enhance and maintain their resilience (e.g. redundancy, resourceful, robustness, etc.). Different studies list and describe these capacities in literature, underling also to which urban dimension (e.g. economy, society) they are referred. However, there is a lack of quantitative assessment of these capacities. As well, the analysis of which degree different urban components can enhance and maintain these capacities. Based on the socio-ecological approach of urban resilience, this study proposes the application of multicriteria analysis (MCA) to evaluate which degree the different urban components can support the enhancement and the maintenance of the specific urban resilience capacities. The proposed framework is an indicators-based method that includes a multidimensional set of urban resilience indicators and the set of urban resilience capacities. In detail, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) has been selected according to its ability to consider the mutual interconnections of the evaluation elements. Moreover, a multidisciplinary panel of experts is asked to weigh the importance of the different urban components in enriching the different urban resilience qualities. The final result is a set of priorities that assess the relative importance of each urban component about a specific urban resilience capacity. The illustrated application is a preliminary pilot case study that quantifies the possibility of quantitatively assessing the urban resilience capacities. In detail, this application refers to a more complex and comprehensive evaluation approach that combines MCA with the System Dynamics Approach (SDM). Therefore, the next step of this research will concern the aggregation and the employment of the obtained priorities in the abovementioned approach to correlate the urban resilience performance with the urban capacities. | Datola, G; Bottero, M; de Angelis, E | Enhancing Urban Resilience Capacities: An Analytic Network Process-based Application | Environmental And Climate Technologies | https://doi.org/10.2478/rtuect-2021-0096 |
The ability of people to respond successfully to environmental variability is determined by their existing vulnerabilities and social-ecological relationships. At the same time, dominant policy and scholarly approaches to adaptation remain apolitical and pay inadequate attention to the links between structural vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Using a case study from the dynamic wetland environment of the Okavango Delta, Botswana, this paper draws on work in political ecology, vulnerability studies, and the emerging field of transformative adaptation to emphasise the need for an anticipatory approach to adaptation. While flooding variability is an inherent part of life in the Okavango Delta, high floods in 2009, 2010 and 2011 displaced hundreds of residents from their homes and inundated many floodplain agricultural fields past the point of production. A combination of household interviews, participant observation sessions, and household surveys was used to investigate the impacts of these flooding events, responses to them, and the implications of those responses. Findings reveal that the Government of Botswana began to regulate wetland-based livelihoods more strictly during the years the high floods occurred, and to encourage residents to switch permanently to dryland livelihoods. While these state-sponsored strategies appear to be practical responses to flooding variability, they ultimately result in decreased adaptive capacity for some people, especially members of the Bayei tribe. This group typically subsists from wetland-based livelihoods and has strong cultural ties to the waters of the Delta. By situating these findings within the historical context of marginalisation of ethnic minorities and rural communities in the country, and considering them in the light of predictions of future increases in environmental variability in the Okavango Delta, the paper identifies sites of potential transformation that would lead to improved adaptive capacities for vulnerable groups, in advance of the most significant impacts of climate change. | Shinn, JE | Toward anticipatory adaptation: Transforming social-ecological vulnerabilities in the Okavango Delta, Botswana | Geographical Journal | https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12244 |
Flooding is the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climatic and socioeconomic change are expected to further increase the amount of loss in the future. To counteract this development, policymaking, and adaptation plan-ning need reliable large-scale risk assessments and an improved understanding of potential risk drivers.In this study, recent datasets for hazard and flood protection standards are combined with high resolution exposure projections and attributes of vulnerability derived from open data sources. The independent and combined influence of exposure change and climate scenarios rcp45 and rcp85 on fluvial flood risk are evaluated for three future periods centered around 2025, 2055 and 2085. Scenarios with improved and neglected private precaution are examined for their influence on flood risk using a probabilistic, multivariable flood loss model - BN-FLEMOps - to estimate fluvial flood losses for residential buildings in Europe.The results on NUTS-3 level reveal that urban centers and their surrounding regions are the hotspots of flood risk in Europe. Flood risk is projected to increase in the British Isles and Central Europe throughout the 21st century, while risk in many regions of Scandinavia and the Mediterranean will stagnate or decline. Under the combined effects of exposure change and climate scenarios rcp45, rcp85, fluvial flood risk in Europe is estimated to increase seven-fold and ten-fold respectively until the end of the century. Our results confirm the dominance of socioeconomic change over climate change on increasing risk. Improved private precautionary measures would reduce flood risk in Europe on an average by 15%. The quantification of future flood risk in Europe by integrating climate, socioeconomic and private precaution scenarios provides an overview of risk drivers, trends, and hot -spots. This large-scale comprehensive assessment at a regional level resolution is valuable for multi-scale risk -based adaptation planning. | Steinhausen, M; Paprotny, D; Dottori, F; Sairam, N; Mentaschi, L; Alfieri, L; Luedtke, S; Kreibich, H; Schroeter, K | Drivers of future fluvial flood risk change for residential buildings in Europe | Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102559 |
Planning for current and future climate risks depends on more than early warning signals and technical climate information. The management and enabling of effective risk approaches, we argue, is shaped by complex contextual settings. These contexts are shaped by decisions including: What climate risks are prioritised? Who makes decisions about risk response interventions and how do they make these decisions? This preliminary study uses observed changes in storm events in the City of Johannesburg (CoJ) and the City's Climate Change Adaptation Plan as a lens through which the scope of such contexts and decisions can be interrogated. The study is used as a springboard from which to begin a dialogue on interactive approaches to adaptation and response planning for current and future climate change. We suggest that this dialogue may be required for a more proactive disaster-risk approach in the city. The major focus of the paper includes a statistical analysis of historical weather data from the OR Tambo Weather Station, located in close proximity to the city. Significant trends are identified in the frequency and intensity of thunderstorms for the period 1960-2009. This preliminary assessment shows some similarities with emerging climate change projections that suggest that heavy rainfall events may become more frequent and intense. The preliminary results presented here also concur with the recent findings contained in the CoJ's Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2009). While the study is in no way substantive and few wider generalisations and strong conclusions can be drawn from it, the study does provide a useful starting point for considering possible planning interventions. The potential value of using science and information from studies, such as this, is highlighted along with the possible ways in which such science can interact with and help inform a comprehensive planning agenda in the City. Finally, the paper calls for more attention to be paid to the contributions and perceptions of community awareness and understanding of climate risks. | Fatti, CE; Vogel, C | Is science enough? Examining ways of understanding, coping with and adapting to storm risks in Johannesburg | Water Sa | null |
As the linked impacts of climate change and degradation of ecosystems continue to be felt, particularly in developing countries, it is vital that methods for development that concurrently address adaptation to climate change, rapid urbanisation, and ecosystem degradation be explored. Further development of approaches which are participatory and embedded in an understanding of the importance of symbiotic relationships between sociocultural and ecological systems is particularly important. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) is one such method that is gaining recognition and momentum in areas where developing nations face converging pressures and drivers of change. EbA methodologies to date, are often ill-defined in an urban context and lack consideration of future social and ecological scenarios however. In response, this paper describes a methodology for developing urban EbA projects in a small island developing nation context. The methodology was developed and applied by a multi-disciplinary team working under the auspices of the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). The application of this methodology in Port Vila, Vanuatu indicated: i) the needs of local people must be at the forefront of project planning, requiring a participatory design process; ii) EbA solutions development must be multidisciplinary and iterative; iii) appropriate quantitative and qualitative data is vital as a basis for EbA project development, requiring adequate time for data gathering; iv) urban and coastal EbA projects must be developed holistically, recognising socio-ecological systems that extend beyond the urban area itself; v) the complex overlapping landscape of governmental and international aid financed projects must inform the development of new EbA projects; vi) potential monetary and non-monetary benefits, costs and risks across multiple factors must be carefully assessed in EbA project development; and vii) project implementation requires ongoing engagement and a readiness to adapt to on-the-ground realities. | Zari, MP; Blaschke, PM; Jackson, B; Komugabe-Dixson, A; Livesey, C; Loubser, DI; Gual, CMA; Maxwell, D; Rastandeh, A; Renwick, J; Weaver, S; Archie, KM | Devising urban ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) projects with developing nations: A case study of Port Vila, Vanuatu | Ocean & Coastal Management | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.105037 |
In the context of international climate change obligations, Gulf Arab states have introduced policies to integrate climate policies into economic development and planning, seeking to maximize clean development opportunities yet at the same time to minimize the threats to their rentier economies caused by sudden shifts away from fossil fuels. This paper assesses the challenges and opportunities for climate policy integration in the Gulf states of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman, examining the interaction between their climate policy and their political-economic regimes. It adopts a novel analytical framework that integrates insights from climate policy integration and the political-economic theory of rentier states. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and relevant policy documents, it reveals modest progress in integrating climate policy into economic development plans in the UAE but major impediments to climate policy integration in Oman. Both countries face significant shortfalls in climate-related financial and human resource capacities. Climate policy integration efforts have focused on the energy sector with the purpose of protecting rents from oil exports rather than advancing a low-carbon transformation of their economies. This has created structural ambiguity in the climate policy integration advanced in the UAE and Oman. Key policy insights The availability, quality and accessibility of climate-related data are serious challenges for policy makers in the UAE and Oman. Both countries have evolving institutional architectures conducive to climate policy integration. However, these are more symbolic than substantive, lacking clear policy integration strategies across the governments. The UAE and Oman both face significant shortfalls in climate-related financial and human resource capacities. Support for climate policy integration by the ruling elites in the UAE and Oman is significantly shaped by rentier interests: most climate-related initiatives have addressed the energy sector, aiming to protect rents from oil exports by reducing the domestic dependence on fossil fuels. | Al-Sarihi, A; Mason, M | Challenges and opportunities for climate policy integration in oil-producing countries: the case of the UAE and Oman | Climate Policy | https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1781036 |
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) indicates that vulnerable industries should adapt to the increasing likelihood of extreme weather events along with slowly shifting mean annual temperatures and precipitation patterns, to prevent major damages or periods of inoperability in the future. Most articles in the literature on business management frame organizational adaptation to climate change as a private action. This makes adaptation the sole responsibility of a company, for its sole benefit, and overlooks the fact that some companies provide critical goods and services such a food, water, electricity, and medical care, that are so vital to society that even a short-term setback in operations could put public security at risk. This raises the following questions: (1) Who is responsible for climate change adaptation by private-sector suppliers of critical infrastructure? (2) How can those who are identified to be responsible, actually be held to assume their responsibility for adapting to climate change? These questions will be addressed through a comprehensive review of the literature on business management, complemented by a review of specialized literature on public management. This review leads to several conclusions. Even though tasks that formerly belonged to the state have been taken over by private companies, the state still holds ultimate responsibility in the event of failure of private-sector owned utilities, insofar as they are critical infrastructure. Therefore, it remains the state's responsibility to foster adaptation to climate change with appropriate action. In theory, effective ways of assuming this responsibility, while enabling critical infrastructure providers the flexibility adapt to climate change, would be to delegate adaptation to an agency, or to conduct negotiations with stakeholders. In view of this theory, Germany will be used as a case study to demonstrate how private-sector critical infrastructure providers can plan and implement climate change adaptation in practice, through the regulatory modes of negotiations and enforced self-regulation. | Schneider, T | Responsibility for private sector adaptation to climate change | Ecology And Society | https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06282-190208 |
This paper focuses on community engagement, and particularly the inclusion of women, in water management as a response to climate change. Addressing water-related problems is central to climate change adaptation, and civil society, marginalized populations and women, in particular, must be involved. This is for both moral and pragmatic reasons: not only are the marginalized the first and worst affected by extreme weather events, but they also possess local ecological, social and political knowledge which can inform and contribute significantly to climate change adaptation strategies. Because of their social roles and position worldwide, women are greatly affected by water scarcity and flooding, and tend to be gravely impacted by poor water management, yet they face great difficulties in participating effectively in governance bodies. Sustainable long-term management of water resources in the face of climate change requires the participation of women, who possess knowledge of effective social technologies for coping with and adapting to climate change. Community-based environmental education is therefore required in order to expand the equitable involvement of women in water-related climate change adaptation activities and policy development. Environmental non-governmental organizations worldwide, working on shoestring budgets at the local level, are developing a range of methods to organize, raise consciousness and confidence, and help local activists create successful climate defense programs. This paper discusses South North initiatives and models for community-based environmental and climate change education which are using the democratic opening provided by watershed-based governance structures to broaden grassroots participation, especially of women, in political processes. We outline the activities and results of two international projects: the Sister Watersheds project, with Brazilian and Canadian partners (2002-2008); and a Climate Change Adaptation in Africa project with partners in Canada, Kenya, Mozambique, and South Africa (2010-2012). (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. | Figueiredo, P; Perkins, PE | Women and water management in times of climate change: participatory and inclusive processes | Journal Of Cleaner Production | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2012.02.025 |
Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and histor-ical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already. (c) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). | Birkmann, J; Jamshed, A; McMillan, JM; Feldmeyer, D; Totin, E; Solecki, W; Ibrahim, ZZ; Roberts, D; Kerr, RB; Poertner, HO; Pelling, M; Djalante, R; Garschagen, M; Filho, WL; Guha-Sapir, D; Alegría, A | Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning | Science Of The Total Environment | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150065 |
This study used corn insurance data as a proxy for agricultural loss to better inform producers and decision-makers about resilience and mitigation. Building on previous research examining crop losses based on weather and climate perils, updates to the peril climatology, identification of peril hotspots, and the quantification of annual trends using inflation-adjusted indemnities for corn were performed over the period 1989-2020. Normalization techniques in loss cost and acreage loss at county-level spatial resolution were also calculated. Indemnity data showed drought and excess moisture as the two costliest and most frequent perils for corn in the United States, although changes in the socioeconomic landscape and frequency of extreme weather events in the recent decade have led to significant increases in corn indemnities for drought, heat, excess moisture, flood, hail, excess wind, and cold wet weather. Normalized losses also displayed significant trends but were dependent on the cause of loss and amount of spatial aggregation. Perhaps most notable were the documented robust increases in corn losses associated with excess moisture, especially considering future projections for increased mid and end-of-century extreme precipitation. Subtle decreasing trends in drought, hail, freeze/frost, and flood loss cost over the study period indicates hedging taking place to protect against these perils, especially in corn acreage outside the Corn Belt in high-risk production zones. The use of crop insurance as a proxy for agricultural loss highlights the importance for quantifying spatiotemporal trends by informing targeted adaption to certain hazards and operational management decisions. Significance StatementThis study quantified the climatology and trends of weather and climate perils affecting corn in the United States. Robust increases in losses were noted with perils causing excess moisture, which is cause for further concern given projected increases in extreme rainfall under a warming climate. | Bundy, LR; Gensini, VA; Russo, MS | Insured Corn Losses in the United States from Weather and Climate Perils | Journal Of Applied Meteorology And Climatology | https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0245.1 |
Coastal communities, including those surrounding the Gulf of Maine, are facing considerable challenges in adapting to increased flood resulting from sea-level rise, and these challenges will remain well past 2050. Over the longer term (decades to centuries), many coastal communities will have to retreat inland away from the coast and toward something new. To date, there appears to be little consideration of how arts and humanities could be leveraged to encourage learning and experimentation to help communities adapt to our changing climate. In this article, we describe an interactive theater model that seeks to address the challenge of bridging scientific knowledge and community conversations on managed retreat and serve as an innovative tool to encourage more productive community conversations about adapting to rising sea levels. The interactive theater workshop consists of two components. The first is a set of short intertwining monologues by three characters (a municipal leader, a climate scientist, and a coastal property owner) who share their thoughts regarding the prospect of managed retreat. Each character provides a glimpse into the attitudes, values, motivations, and fears related to distinct and authentic perspectives on managed retreat. The monologues are followed by a professionally facilitated interactive session during which audienceparticipants are invited to probe characters' perspectives and even redirect and replay scenes in new ways to seek more constructive outcomes. The workshop is designed for all session participants to examine their own strengths and weaknesses when engaging others on this subject, to be more prepared to accommodate a range of emotional connections to the subject matter, and to anticipate social dynamics at play. The workshop has now been piloted at four different events. Initial feedback from post-workshop voluntary surveys suggest that the workshop is useful for improving the capacity of resilience professionals to encourage more productive conversations about difficult climate adaptation actions. | Wake, C; Kaye, D; Lewis, CJ; Levesque, V; Peterson, J | Undercurrents: Exploring the human dynamics of adaptation to sea-level rise | Elementa-Science Of The Anthropocene | https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2020.060 |
Pakistan has experienced severe floods over the past decades due to climate variability. Among all the floods, the flood of 2010 was the worst in history. This study focuses on the assessment of (1) riverine flooding in the district Jhang (where Jhelum and Chenab rivers join, and the district was severely flood affected) and (2) south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns and anomalies considering the case of 2010 flood in Pakistan. The land use/cover change has been analyzed by using Landsat TM 30 m resolution satellite imageries for supervised classification, and three instances have been compared, i.e., pre-flooding, flooding, and post-flooding. The water flow accumulation, drainage density and pattern, and river catchment areas have been calculated by using Shutter Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model 90 m resolution. The standard deviation of south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns, anomalies and normal (1979-2008) has been calculated for July, August, and September by using rainfall data set of Era interim (0.75 degrees x 0.75 degrees resolution). El Nio Southern Oscillation has also been considered for its role in prevailing rainfall anomalies during the year 2010 over Upper Indus Basin region. Results show the considerable changing of land cover during the three instances in the Jhang district and water content in the rivers. Abnormal rainfall patterns over Upper Indus Basin region prevailed during summer monsoon months in the year 2010 and 2011. The El Nio (2009-2010) and its rapid phase transition to La Nia (2011-2012) may be the cause of severity and disturbances in rainfall patterns during the year 2010. The Geographical Information System techniques and model based simulated climate data sets have been used in this study which can be helpful in developing a monitoring tool for flood management. | Khalid, B; Cholaw, B; Alvim, DS; Javeed, S; Khan, JA; Javed, MA; Khan, AH | Riverine flood assessment in Jhang district in connection with ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall over Upper Indus Basin for 2010 | Natural Hazards | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3234-y |
Managing flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios (dry and wet), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by 2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three of them assume a current trend land use evolution, leading to a significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development, characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1-40 %, to (sic) 334-462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative increase in flood damage is 540-630 %, corresponding to total damages of C 2.1-2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the influence of climate on the overall damage is 3-8 times higher than the effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the wetscenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by no more than 11-23 %; but, at the level of several municipalities, more sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much greater degree. | Beckers, A; Dewals, B; Erpicum, S; Dujardin, S; Detrembleur, S; Teller, J; Pirotton, M; Archambeau, P | Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region | Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences | https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2301-2013 |
Water scarcity threatens irrigated agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Knowledge of farmers' perceptions and drivers for decision-making in view of coping with water scarcity is so far lacking but needed to improve local technologies and frame policies fostering their adoption. Here, for the first time, we investigated farmers' perception of water scarcity, key adaptation strategies, and the determinants of their adoption in irrigated rice schemes in dry climatic zones of West Africa. We surveyed 572 farming households and conducted expert interviews with key informants in four contrasting irrigated rice schemes in Burkina Faso between April 2018 and August 2019. Information was gathered on biophysical field characteristics, grain yields, agronomic and water management practices, farmers' perception of water scarcity, their adaptive responses, and social-economic attributes of adopting households. Nearly 80% of the respondents reported having experienced water scarcity during the past 5 years. To cope with the adverse effect of water scarcity, farmers implemented seventeen different adaptation strategies that could be categorized into seven groups. Most popular among those were water and soil conservation practices (consisting mainly of field bunding and leveling), no rice cultivation, and crop rotation. Farmers in drier areas (Sudano-Sahelian zone) were less likely to adopt and implement several adaptation strategies to water scarcity compared to farmers in wetter areas (Sudanian zone). Belonging to farming associations increased the probability of implementing several strategies to alleviate water scarcity, while female-headed households tended to have a lower propensity to adopt and implement concomitantly several adaptation strategies in comparison with their male counterpart. The dissemination of scheme- and household-specific technology options could contribute to mitigating water scarcity in irrigated rice-based systems in the dry climatic zones of West Africa, thus contributing to rural livelihood and food security. | Johnson, JM; Becker, M; Dossou-Yovo, ER; Saito, K | Farmers' perception and management of water scarcity in irrigated rice-based systems in dry climatic zones of West Africa | Agronomy For Sustainable Development | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-023-00878-9 |
Despite the growth in work linking climate change and national level development agendas, there has been limited attention to their political economy. These processes mediate the winners, losers and potential trade-offs between different goals, and the political and institutional factors which enable or inhibit integration across different policy areas. This paper applies a political economy analysis to case studies on low carbon energy in Kenya and carbon forestry in Mozambique. In examining the intersection of climate and development policy, we demonstrate the critical importance of politics, power and interests when climate-motivated initiatives encounter wider and more complex national policy contexts, which strongly influence the prospects of achieving integrated climate policy and development goals in practice. We advance the following arguments: First, understanding both the informal nature and historical embeddedness of decision making around key issue areas and resource sectors of relevance to climate change policy is vital to engaging actually existing politics; why actors hold the positions they do and how they make decisions in practice. Second, we need to understand and engage with the interests, power relations and policy networks that will shape the prospects of realising climate policy goals; acting as barriers in some cases and as vehicles for change in others. Third, by looking at the ways in which common global drivers have very different impacts upon climate change policy once refracted through national levels institutions and policy processes, it is easier to understand the potential and limits of translating global policy into local practice. And fourth, climate change and development outcomes, and the associated trade-offs, look very different depending on how they are framed, who fratries them and in which actor coalitions. Understanding these can inform the levers of change and power to be navigated, and with whom to engage in order to address climate change and development goals. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | Naesse, LO; Newell, P; Newsham, A; Phillips, J; Quane, JL; Tanner, T | Climate policy meets national development contexts: Insights from Kenya and Mozambique | Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08.015 |
CONTEXT: Climate change and variability have been identified as major threats to key sectors such as agriculture that drive economic growth and sustainable development in developing countries. The provision of tailored weather and climate information services (WCIS) that meet users' expectations can play an important role in helping decision makers adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change and climate However, the evidence base showing the benefits of WCIS is still thin. OBJECTIVE: This study analyzes the impact of uptake of tailored seasonal and daily weather forecasts that are mediated by a multidisciplinary working group (MWG) on crop productivity and household income of smallholder farmers in Senegal. METHODS: A two-season balanced dataset in combination with panel econometrics was used to explore the impact of uptake of weather and climate information on crop income for farmers in Senegal. The data were complemented by participatory surveys that provide richer contextual information to explain the causal pathways that link farmers' uptake with increased crop income for farmers with access to the MWG. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Results show that the use of weather and climate information increased the value of crop produce by between 10 and 25% for farmers with access to an MWG. Coordinated platforms that involve diverse stakeholders like the MWGs play a critical role in co-producing weather and climate information that are more usable to farmers, thereby improving uptake and livelihoods. The impact pathways and implications for policy are discussed. SIGNIFICANCE: This study expands the limited evidence base on the role of weather and climate services in improving the livelihoods of smallholder by (i) going beyond the use of cross-sectional and using longitudinal data, (ii) analyzing causal impacts on farmer's livelihoods, i.e., crop yields and household income and (iii) using participatory approaches to better explain the causal impact pathways. | Chiputwa, B; Blundo-Canto, G; Steward, P; Andrieu, N; Ndiaye, O | Co-production, uptake of weather and climate services, and welfare impacts on farmers in Senegal: A panel data approach | Agricultural Systems | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103309 |
Objective: The study has the purpose of evaluating the nexus between climate change and migration of farmers in Delta State, Nigeria. The influence exerted by cognitive situations and climate - driven stress on farmers' decisions to migrate and the socioeconomic attributes of migrating and non-migrating farm families are examined. The emphasis is the function of migration in accessing climate and agricultural extension services as well as the contribution made by migration to promote farmers' climate change coping capacity. Methodology: Survey was articulated using farming households in three agricultural zones of Delta State, Nigeria. Perceptions of farmers about alterations in climate were examined with the use of mental map technique. Binary logistic regression model was applied to assess the function of socioeconomic attributes of farm families while descriptive statistics was employed in evaluating the adaptive capacities of the migrating farming households. Findings: Climate - driven livelihood variables form part of the main propellers of migration among farmers. Migration as well as the socioeconomic attributes is influenced by perception of farmers about climate change. There appears significant difference between migrating and non -migrating farm families with respect to utilization of information, technology and knowledge emanating from agricultural and climate extension services. The gains from remittances, knowledge and social networks from host communities or zones raise migrating farm families capacity to adapt to climate change. Theoretical Implications: This paper contributes to the progressively dynamic body of knowledge by pointing out migration as an alternative climate change adaptation strategy to promote agriculture food security in any part of the world. Originality/Value: Micro - evidence is offered by this study with respect to contribution made by migration to adaptive capacity of farmers and their ability to have access to agricultural and climate extension services. This will be useful in the analysis of climate - driven migration in other nations that are agricultural economies. Insight is also offered regarding policy needs for the scaling down of farmers' vulnerability to climate change. | Ukaro, OA; Davina, O | Migration among Farmers in Delta State, Nigeria: Is it a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy? | Journal Of Agriculture And Environment For International Development | https://doi.org/10.36253/jaeid-12076 |
Climate change poses major challenges to agricultural systems in drought prone regions of the world especially in the areas with high poverty, lack of irrigation facilities and low productivity. Towards this it is essential to understand the climate change perceptions, adaptation practices and barriers to effective adaptation at household and community level. This paper using household surveys and focus group discussions in one of the drought prone areas of Odisha in India, explores various aspects of perception on climate change and barriers to adaptation. It also analyses the accuracy of perceptions based on rainfall data from nearest meteorological stations. The study reinforces the argument by earlier studies that the perception by people simply cannot be wrong because they may have a just a low correlation with underlying meteorological data. Results suggest that farmers increasingly perceive the changes in the rainfall and temperature patterns. However, when compared with the trend in actual rainfall data, perceptions on rainfall are found to more closely align with the results from the nearest station as compared to the station farther from it. Analysis revealed that seasonal rainfall variability has a profound influence on the farmers' perceptions on climate change and drought in the study region. Farmers' are still dependent on the traditional forecasting system because of the lack of access to modern climate forecasting and tailored information for agricultural practice. Although farmers in the study region are already adapting to the changing climate, the study finds that while lack of access to water and irrigation, information on climate change adaptation and early warning systems are major barriers to adaptation at the household level lack of government intervention, lack of knowledge on drought resistant crops and varieties and lack of renovation of water bodies and irrigation were mentioned as the major barriers at the community level. Findings from the paper argue for better adaptation planning at the local level incorporating local level perceptions and barriers to adaptation. In such areas local level planning can be crucial in enhancing the adaptive capacity of the farmers. | Panda, A | Exploring climate change perceptions, rainfall trends and perceived barriers to adaptation in a drought affected region in India | Natural Hazards | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2456-0 |
Farming systems of western Nepal are home to isolated, poverty-stricken people who must cope with weak agricultural extension services and negative effects of climate change. Our research objective was to identify, implement, and assess a suite of interventions promoting climate change preparedness and poverty reduction for two traditional farming communities in Bajura District. Participatory processes were first used to identify priority problems and solutions. Residents then received an intervention package implemented over 16 months that was targeted for problem solving and founded on non-formal education (NFE) training modules. Following the intervention period, a random sample of households gave their trend perceptions for 24 socioeconomic and agroecosystem attributes, and findings were compared with those from adjacent control communities lacking interventions in a quasi-experimental approach. Results indicated that community-based participation was an effective diagnostic research tool that allowed priority problems to be ranked and linked to either climate change or other factors of under-development. This sharpened our focus for the intervention phase. The intervention package had positive effects (P <= .047) on 23 of 24 attributes with particularly notable impacts on altering previous attitudes and beliefs, improving skill sets, boosting cash incomes, and supporting a more diversified mix of agricultural enterprises largely based on existing technologies. Improved goat production and marketing, however, was the main driver for socioeconomic change. In sum, improved risk management, widespread adoption of a planning mentality, and expansion of community-based collaborations were keys to success. We estimated that the intervention package was generally inexpensive, costing from US$ 1.48 to 4.75 per beneficiary. We concluded that use of participatory processes and NFE-based interventions can achieve impact quickly here. These are important means to build human capacity and community resilience, especially in places where implementation of novel, climate-smart agricultural technologies is difficult. | Coppock, DL; Pandey, N; Tulachan, S; Duwal, D; Dhungana, M; Dulal, BP; Davis, D | Non-formal education promotes innovation and climate change preparedness among isolated Nepalese farmers | Climate And Development | https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2021.1921685 |
Floods occur when a body of water overflows and submerges normally dry terrain. Tropical cyclones or tsunamis cause flooding. Health and safety are jeopardized during a flood. As a result, proactive flood mitigation measures are required. This study aimed to increase flood disaster preparedness among Selangor communities in Malaysia by implementing a Health Belief Model-Based Intervention (HEBI). Selangor's six districts were involved in a single-blinded cluster randomized controlled trial Community-wide implementation of a Health Belief Model-Based Intervention (HEBI). A self-administered questionnaire was used. The intervention group received a HEBI module, while the control group received a health talk on non-communicable disease. The baseline variables were compared. Immediate and six-month post-intervention impacts on outcome indicators were assessed. 284 responses with a 100% response rate. At the baseline, there were no significant differences in ethnicity, monthly household income, or past disaster experience between groups (p>0.05). There were significant differences between-group for intervention on knowledge, skills, preparedness (p<0.001), Perceived Benefit Score (p = 0.02), Perceived Barrier Score (p = 0.03), and Cues to Action (p = 0.04). GEE analysis showed receiving the HEBI module had effectively improved knowledge, skills, preparedness, Perceived Benefit Score, Perceived Barrier Score, and Cues to Action in the intervention group after controlling the covariate. Finally, community flood preparedness ensured that every crisis decision had the least impact on humans. The HEBI module improved community flood preparedness by increasing knowledge, skill, preparedness, perceived benefit, perceived barrier, and action cues. As a result, the community should be aware of this module. | Noor, MTM; Shahar, HK; Baharudin, MR; Ismail, SNS; Manaf, RA; Said, SM; Ahmad, J; Muthiah, SG | Facing flood disaster: A cluster randomized trial assessing communities' knowledge, skills and preparedness utilizing a health model intervention | Plos One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271258 |
Risk insurance for disasters plays a relevant part in the implementation of risk reduction strategies during the pre-disaster phase. This is essential to support risk management towards decreasing the marginal risk allowing policy holders to transfer risk to avoid considerable financial loads from the costs incurred during the recovery phase in a post-disaster phase. There is evidence that the introduction of an integrated risk insurance strategy for community resilience planning is still lacking. Thus, this undermines the possibility to have proper optimized holistic risk management; on the one hand this strengthens pre-disaster risk mitigation measures, mostly relying on mitigative infrastructural solutions, and on the other hand it better defines risk prevention strategies mostly connected to land planning and urban development. This paper will show how insurance markets can play a key role towards mitigating the economic consequences of natural and climate change disasters, and how essential it is to better quantify the beneficial effects and costs of engineer-based mitigative solutions. In this context, the legal framework into which the actuarial quantitative model can be implemented will support the creation of an integrated multidisciplinary approach with potential implementation on a novel platform capable of collecting and processing information from different sources and dimensions such as blockchain technology. The scientific community is, in fact, increasingly interested in implementing blockchain technology to overcome problems linked to the contractual dimension of natural disaster risk insurance which can be interpreted as a sort of smart contracting. Through a study that involved four distinct areas, namely: law, environmental engineering, insurance and IT, this paper proposes a specific multidisciplinary methodology to achieve the drafting and implementation of a digital insurance contract on a blockchain platform against natural hazards. This paper proposes the basis to advance a quantitative concept to optimize the impact of catastrophe risk insurance onto the community resilience; in fact providing a key synergy for definition of pre-disaster conditions. | Pagano, AJ; Romagnoli, F; Vannucci, E | Implementation of Blockchain Technology in Insurance Contracts Against Natural Hazards: A Methodological Multi-Disciplinary Approach | Environmental And Climate Technologies | https://doi.org/10.2478/rtuect-2019-0091 |
Interactions among social inequalities, environmental stressors, and shocks are illustrated through communities??? subjective experiences of water-related challenges and responses to crises. This situation is perhaps most visible in the COVID-19 pandemic???s impact on marginalized communities where climate change and systemic inequities are already threatening access to water and sanitation. It is critical to integrate dimensions related to well-being into research about vulnerable communities??? capacities and strategies for coping and adapting to such crises. Here, we investigate water-related risks to health and well-being using a subjectivity lens, a particularly useful tool for understanding community-level resilience to lesser-known stressors and crisis impacts. To inform this study, we used households??? self-reported water issues in Cape Town, South Africa???s low-income areas from before the pandemic, in addition to community responses during the pandemic. The findings show how inadequate access to water and sanitation affects people???s health and well-being, both directly by exposure to wastewater and impaired hygiene, and indirectly by creating stress and social conflict, and undermining subsistence gardening and medical self-care. However, our study also illustrates how grassroots-led responses to the COVID-19 crisis address these vulnerabilities and identify priorities for managing water to support well-being. The results demonstrate two ways that subjective perceptions of well-being can help to promote resilience: first, by identifying stressors that undermine community well-being and adaptive capacity; and second, by voicing community experiences that can help to guide crisis responses and initiatives critical for adapting to social-ecological shocks. The results have important implications for enabling transformative change that aligns efforts to address issues linked to poverty and inequality with those seeking to respond to environmental emergencies. | Humphreys, K; Enqvist, J | Voicing resilience through subjective well-being: community perspectives on responding to water stressors and COVID-19 | Ecology And Society | https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13192-270239 |
Pakistan is highly exposed to climate-induced disasters, especially floods. Flooding history shows that educational establishments have been disproportionately hard-hit by flooding events. In Pakistan, school safety and preparedness is still a choice, rather than a mandatory requirement for all schools. But schools in Pakistan do have a responsibility to keep safe the students in their care, especially during and after the catastrophic events. This implies the need to maintain the environment in and around school property, so as to minimize the impacts of floods and to have the mechanisms in place to maximize a school's resilience. This study examined the emergency preparedness activities of 20 schools in four districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province that had recently been severely affected by floods. Through face to face interviews and a structured questionnaire (n = 100) we collected data on the four pillars of emergency preparedness: emergency planning, preparation measures, safe school facilities, and hazard education and training. The study revealed that the majority of the sample schools had experienced more than one natural hazard-induced disaster, predominantly flooding, yet despite this had not undertaken adequate emergency preparedness activities. There are particular gaps with regard to plans for students with disabilities, the continuity of school operations after a disaster, the presence of maps to identify evacuation routes, the availability of emergency equipment and resources, disaster preparedness guidelines, and psychological first aid and crisis counseling. The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats analysis that our researchers carried out indicates that, although schools in the survey have taken many steps towards flood preparedness, many weaknesses still exist and there remain significant opportunities to strengthen the preparedness level of many schools. The goal of this study is to inform policy decisions that improve school safety in Pakistan and to suggest the priority areas for future school disaster preparedness and management efforts. | Shah, AA; Ye, JZ; Pan, L; Ullah, R; Shah, SIA; Fahad, S; Naz, S | Schools' Flood Emergency Preparedness in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan | International Journal Of Disaster Risk Science | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-018-0175-8 |
Adaptation pathways have experienced growing popularity as a decision-focussed approach in climate adaptation research and planning. Despite the increasing and broadening use of adaptation pathways reported in the literature, there has not yet been a systematic attempt to review, compare and contrast approaches to adaptation pathways design and their application. In this paper we address this gap through a literature review of conceptual and applied studies of adaptation pathways in the context of climate change. Adaptation pathways started to be conceptualised in 2010. They have become recognised as sequences of actions, which can be implemented progressively, depending on how the future unfolds and the development of knowledge. A difference between scholars is whether pathways are understood as alternative sequences of measures to realise a well-defined adaptation objective, or as broad directions of change for different strategic aims or outcomes. Analysis of case studies on adaptation pathways development showed three clusters of approaches: (a) performance-threshold oriented, (b) multi-stakeholder oriented, and (c) transformation oriented approaches. These broadly correspond to three desired outcomes of pathways development: (i) meeting short and long-term adaptation needs, (ii) promoting collaborative learning, adaptive planning and adaptive capacity, (iii) accounting for complexity and long-term change, including a potential need for transformation. Yet, as of now there is little evidence of the utility of different approaches for pathways development in different decision contexts. Scholars appear to be guided more by how they understand the adaptation problem and by what approaches are known to them, than by the context of the case. Attention is needed on who defines objectives and outcomes for pathway development. Based on the review, we present a learning framework to guide systematic reflection about why and how adaptation pathways are developed. Lessons learned by application of the framework will enable refinement of pathways approaches to make full use of the potential in different decision contexts. | Werners, SE; Wise, RM; Butler, JRA; Totin, E; Vincent, K | Adaptation pathways: A review of approaches and a learning framework | Environmental Science & Policy | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.11.003 |
The United Nation's sustainable development goal is to achieve zero hunger by 2030 and achieve food security throughout the world. In this context, we analyze the anthropogenic factors such as land use and land cover change, waterlogging, and soil salinity which combinedly affecting the agricultural sustainability and threatening the food security in the southwestern region of Bangladesh. Landsat satellite images from 1991 to 2021 were used to detect the changes and identify how anthropogenic activities have altered the land cover and land use and impede the sustainability of agriculture. Terra MODIS vegetation indices from 2000 to 2020 were used to detect waterlogging. Soil salinity was measured from the soil samples and vegetation soil salinity index (VSSI) from Landsat images. Findings of the study revealed that agricultural lands have decreased because of an increase in shrimp farming. Waterlogging and soil salinity are increasing due to increased shrimp farms also for poor drainage infrastructure and human modification. The area of agricultural land in 2011 was 19,657.12 acres,12,750.14 acres, and 38,774.70 acres in Keshabpur, Abhaynagar, and Manirampur, which changed to 12,668.70 acres (-36%), 7151.27 acres (-44%), and 32,809.30 acres (-16%) in 2021. Our hotspot analysis reveals that very high vulnerability to waterlogging due to floods was highest in Manirampur (15,464.09 acres). Finally, we proposed a new framework called IDCEM designed for monitoring land-use change, salinity, and waterlogging in the interior coast, which will indirectly help to promote food security and help in achieving sustainable development goal. | Ahmed, Z; Ambinakudige, S | Does land use change, waterlogging, and salinity impact on sustainability of agriculture and food security? Evidence from southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh | Environmental Monitoring And Assessment | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10673-w |
Extreme climatic events are changing the structure and functioning of forests worldwide, and often reducing abruptly their capacity to provide ecosystem services, especially to rural communities intimately connected to their environment. In this paper, we analyze climate-induced changes to provisioning ecosystem services, including forest resources available and used by rural communities, and local perceptions about how these services changed after recent extreme climatic events inside and outside a Biosphere Reserve in northwestern Mexico. Our approach integrates quantitative and qualitative techniques from traditional (50 local interviews) and scientific (forest surveys in 24 1-ha plots) ecological knowledge. Our integrated analysis suggests widespread tree mortality was the main ecological effect of recent extreme climatic events, especially in forests regrowing in the reserve former agricultural land, overturning decades of forest natural regeneration. Reserve inhabitants, strongly relying on their surrounding forests for self-consumption, identified climatic events as the main driver of forest change. In addition to climatic events, people outside the reserve recognized selective logging for charcoal production and in general forest exploitation as key drivers of forest change, consistent with the decline of hardwood species revealed by our field surveys. The persistence of an eroding environmental dimension (e.g., unsustainable use of forest resources) outside reserves could increase the long-term vulnerability of rural socioecosystems to extreme climatic events. The protecting role of biosphere reserves will be essential to preserve old-growth forests more resistant to temperature extremes and aid the process of forest natural regeneration after climate-induced disturbance. In order to protect native biodiversity and reduce climate vulnerability, coupled human-environment systems such as Biosphere Reserves should genuinely and rightfully engage local people in management decisions, prioritizing policies that build more sustainable livelihoods and enhance the adaptive capacity of socioecosystems to cope with climate variability. | Arenas-Wong, RA; Robles-Morúa, A; Bojórquez, A; Martínez-Yrízar, A; Yépez, EA; Alvarez-Yépiz, JC | Climate-induced changes to provisioning ecosystem services in rural socioecosystems in Mexico | Weather And Climate Extremes | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100583 |