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This study aimed to determine the farmers' perceived impact of climate change on irrigation water and the adaptation measure adopted to mitigate its adverse effects. A binary logistic regression model was used to identified factors affecting the selection of adaptation measures. Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) was employed to compute the benefits of adaptation strategies. The study was conducted in two major cropping systems, i.e., the Cotton Wheat Cropping System (CWCS) and Rice Wheat Cropping System (RWCS) of Punjab, Pakistan, using primary data of 1080 farmers collected through a multistage sampling technique. Due to climate change there was deterioration in surface water and groundwater quality in CWCS than in RWCS. The farmer uses different adaptation strategies like water harvesting, crop diversification, increasing use of irrigation, laser land leveling to save water, making ridges, building a water harvesting scheme, changing irrigation time, high-efficiency irrigation system and water-saving technologies. Adaptation strategies used by farmer were affected by different socioeconomic, demographic and agronomic factors. Results of the binary logistic regression showed that age, farming experience, education, household size, farm size, tenancy status of owner, access to farm credit, information on weather forecasting, soil quality, tube well ownership, remittances, off-farm income, agricultural extension services provided for irrigation water, and information on climatic and natural hazards played a significant role in the selection of adaptation strategies for irrigation water. Results of PLS-SEM showed that adaptation strategies mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on irrigation water. Farmers' awareness regarding the impact of climatic variability on irrigation water should be enhanced. Availability of credit to farmers should be improved on easy terms to facilitate the adoption of interventions for better irrigation water management. It is high time for policymakers to design effective, affordable, and workable policies to mitigate climate change vulnerabilities against irrigation water to improve the wellbeing of the farmers.

Usman, M; Ali, A; Bashir, MK; Baig, SA; Mushtaq, K; Abbas, A; Akram, R; Iqbal, MS

Modelling wellbeing of farmers by using nexus of climate change risk perception, adaptation strategies, and their drivers on irrigation water in Pakistan

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25883-z

In this paper, we present the results of an NHESS (Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences) 20th anniversary survey, in which 350 natural hazard community members responded to two questions: (Q1) what are the top three scientific challenges you believe are currently facing our understanding of natural hazards and (Q2) what three broad step changes should or could be done by the natural hazard community to address natural hazards in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals? We have analysed the data quantitatively and qualitatively. According to the 350 respondents, the most significant challenges (Q1) are the following (within brackets % of 350 respondents who identified a given theme): (i) shortcomings in the knowledge of risk and risk components (64 %), (ii) deficiencies of hazard and risk reduction approaches (37 %), (iii) influence of global change, especially climate change (35 %), (iv) integration of social factors (18%), (v) inadequate translation of science to policy and practice (17 %), and (vi) lack of interdisciplinary approaches (6 %). In order for the natural hazard community to support the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (Q2), respondents called for (i) enhanced stakeholder engagement, communication and knowledge transfer (39 %), (ii) increased management and reduction of disaster risks (34 %), (iii) enhanced interdisciplinary research and its translation to policy and practice (29 %), (iv) a better understanding of natural hazards (23 %), (v) better data, enhanced access to data and data sharing (9 %), and (vi) increased attention to developing countries (6 %). We note that while the most common knowledge gaps are felt to be around components of knowledge about risk drivers, the step changes that the community felt were necessary related more to issues of wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary working.

Trogrlic, RS; Donovan, A; Malamud, BD

Invited perspectives: Views of 350 natural hazard community members on key challenges in natural hazards research and the Sustainable Development Goals

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022

The increasingly uncertain and changing agricultural context raises questions about the resilience, i.e., ability to cope with disturbances, of farms to climate change and other disturbances. To date, the resilience concept has been discussed mainly in the scientific field leading to an abundant literature on social-ecological system resilience and on livelihood resilience. A farm resilience framework is developing and borrows from those two frameworks. However, consistent application of the farm resilience concept remains difficult and requires better consideration of farmers' perspectives. Our objectives in this study were to highlight farmers' perceptions of farm resilience to the variety of disturbances they have to cope with in their daily farm management and to highlight resilience factors. We conducted 128 semistructured interviews on French organic dairy cattle (85) and sheep (43) farms. We asked farmers six open-ended questions about resilience in organic dairy farming. Inductive content analysis of the data was conducted. According to farmers, a resilient farm relies on a high degree of autonomy in investments, animal feeding, and decision making, and is economically efficient. Other resilience indicators include consistency of the farming plan, with, e.g., herd size corresponding to the production potential of the land, and transferability of the farm to relatives, through, e.g., the financial capital required to take over the farm. Farmers also highlighted different ways to achieve resilience. Because of the higher cost of organic inputs, converting to organic farming indirectly promotes adaptations of farms toward autonomy and economic efficiency, and is thus regarded as a major resilience factor. Farmers also highlighted the central role of pastures and grazing to achieve autonomy and improve cost control. Diversification within the farm via crop rotations, herd composition, and farm products was also considered to improve farm resilience. In this study, we are the first to explore organic farmers' perception of farm resilience. Better understanding farmers' perceptions is necessary for developing training and advisory programs to support farm resilience to a variety of disturbances.

Perrin, A; Milestad, R; Martin, G

Resilience applied to farming: organic farmers' perspectives

Ecology And Society

https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-11897-250405

Description of the subject. Important changes in cropping seasons caused by a decrease and erratic patterns in rainfall have forced farmers to redefine their agricultural calendars, which are based on local knowledge. Objectives. The objective of this study was to promote local knowledge used in farming schedules. The specific objectives were to identify biophysical indicators used for planning cropping calendars, and to determine the target plant species common to all ecological zones. Method. In total, 689 farmers distributed through 65 localities were surveyed through semi-direct interviews and focus group discussions. Results. All respondent farmers reported relying on temporal markers for defining their cropping calendars, especially the recognition of the onset of the rainy season (sowing period) and rainfall cessation or the dry season (harvesting period). These campanulata P.Beauv.) and fruiting (Vitellaria paradoxa C.F.Gaertn.), which are used to indicate the beginning of the dry season. The flowering of Millettia thonningii (Schum. & Thonn.) Baker, V. paradoxa, Delonix regia (Hook.) Raf. and the opening of ripened fruits (Ceiba pentandra [L.] Gaertn.) are used to identify the onset of the rainy season. A total of 67 species were identified as indicators of agricultural seasons. In addition to these plant species, the seasonal migration of birds (73%), and of insects (48%); and some abiotic indicators such as wind direction (100%), star observations (82%) and cloud movement (69%) were reportedly used as landmarks in farming time management. Conclusions. Knowledge about these signals is useful for anticipating possible climate variability based on traditional meteorological forecasting and for guiding local cropping calendars. This local knowledge regarding temporal markers is therefore relevant for agricultural adaptation to climate change.

Agbodan, KML; Akpavi, S; Amegnaglo, KB; Akodewou, A; Diwediga, B; Koda, DK; Batawila, K; Akpagana, K

Local knowledge on temporal indicators in the Guinean zone of Togo

Biotechnologie Agronomie Societe Et Environnement

The direct and indirect impacts of global climate change entail serious consequences for global biophysical and social systems, including the health, well-being and sustainability of communities. These impacts are especially serious for vulnerable groups in economically developing societies. While climate change is a global phenomenon, it is at the local level that impacts are most felt, and from where responses to climate change are enacted. It is increasingly urgent that communities possess the capacity to respond to climate change, now and in the future. Community representations of climate-relevant issues are critical to underpinning responses. Environmental representations do not directly reflect actual physical conditions but are interpreted through social and cultural layers of understanding that shape environmental issues. This paper investigates environmental and climate-relevant perceptions within two communities in the Terai region of Nepal; the city of Bharatpur and the village of Kumroj in Chitwan Province. Following mixed findings on levels of climate change awareness in Nepal, we set out to explore perspectives on the environment and climate change awareness by conducting 30 qualitative interviews with local people. The study found that issues linked to sanitation and cleanliness were most important in both communities, while reports of temperature and weather changes were less common and typically linked to local causes rather than climate change. Imagined futures were also closely related to current environmental issues affecting communities and did not discuss climate change, though temperature and weather changes were anticipated. However, when talk of climate change was deliberately elicited, participants displayed their awareness, though this was rarely linked to local conditions. We conclude that, in light of other pressing local issues, climate change is yet to penetrate the environmental representations of some communities and there is a need to address the disconnect between local issues and global climate change. Making climate change relevant at the local level by connecting to salient local issues and co-benefits comprises an important step in bridging the gap between more global awareness and its relevance more locally, particularly for communities at risk.

Nash, N; Capstick, S; Whitmarsh, L; Chaudhary, I; Manandhar, R

Perceptions of Local Environmental Issues and the Relevance of Climate Change in Nepal's Terai: Perspectives From Two Communities

Frontiers In Sociology

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2019.00060

As the impacts of climate change begin to take hold, increased attention is being paid to the consequences that might occur remotely from the location of the initial climatic impact, where impacts and responses are transmitted across one or more borders. As an economy that is highly connected to other regions and countries of the world, the European Union (EU) is potentially exposed to such cross-border impacts. Here, we undertake a macro-scale, risk-focused literature and data review to explore the potential impact transmission pathways between the EU and other world regions and countries. We do so across three distinct domains of interest - trade, human security and finance - which are part of complex socio-economic, political and cultural systems and may contribute to mediate or exacerbate risk exposure. Across these domains, we seek to understand the extent to which there has been prior consideration of aspects of climate-related risk exposure relevant to developing an understanding of cross-border impacts. We also provide quantitative evidence of the extent and strength of connectivity between the EU and other world regions. Our analysis reveals that - within this nascent area of research - there is uncertainty about the dynamics of cross-border impact that will affect whether the EU is in a relatively secure or vulnerable position in comparison with other regions. However, we reveal that risk is likely to be focused in particular `hotspots'; defined geographies, for example, that produce materials for EU consumption (e.g. Latin American soybean), hold financial investments (e.g. North America), or are the foci for EU external action (e.g. the Middle East and North Africa region). Importantly, these domains will also interact, and - via the application of a conceptual example of soybean production in Argentina based on a historical drought event - we illustrate that impact and response pathways linked to EU risk exposure may be complex, further heightening the challenge of developing effective policy responses within an uncertain climatic and socioeconomic future.

West, CD; Stokeld, E; Campiglio, E; Croft, S; Detges, A; Duranovic, A; von Jagow, A; Jarzabek, L; König, C; Knaepen, H; Magnuszewski, P; Monasterolo, I; Reyer, CPO

Europe's cross-border trade, human security and financial connections: A climate risk perspective

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100382

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide empirical insights into urban household perceptions and (in) action towards the perceived impacts of climate change, based on a case study in Kensington, Victoria, Australia. This case utilises households as sites of active agency, rather than as passive recipients of climate change or associated governance. Design/methodology/approach - This research trialled an approach to engaging a community in the context of disaster risk reduction (DRR). It involved a two-stage quantitative door-knocking survey (reported elsewhere), followed by a qualitative interview with interested households. In total, 76 quantitative surveys contextualise 15 qualitative interviews, which are the focus of this analysis. The findings are presented comparatively alongside the current literature. Findings - Heatwaves are understood to be the most concerning hazard for the households in this sample who associate their increasing frequency and severity with climate change. However, subsequent (in) action is shown to be situated within the complexities of day-to-day activities and concerns. While respondents did not consider themselves to have expert knowledge on climate change, or consider their actions to be a direct response to climate change, most had undertaken actions resulting from experience with heatwaves. These findings suggest there may be an under-representation of DRR, which includes climate change adaptation actions, within the existing research. Research limitations/implications - While this sample justifies the arguments and conclusions, it is not a representative sample and therefore requires follow-up. It does however challenge traditional approaches to risk management, which focus on awareness raising and education. The research highlights the unique contexts in which households perceive and act on risk, and the need for risk experts to consider such contexts. Originality/value - This research provides empirical evidence of urban household responses to perceived climate change-related risk, an often-neglected dimension of heatwave and adaptation studies in Australia. The findings also suggest promise for the methodological approach.

Cornes, IC; Cook, B

Localising climate change: heatwave responses in urban households

Disaster Prevention And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-11-2017-0276

Purpose The purpose of this empirical case study is to study and explain the role of public leadership in the expansion of municipal climate action in Canada. Design/methodology/approach In 2017 and 2018, the authors conducted13 semi-directed interviews with municipal staff and elected officials from three municipalities, a documentary analysis of primary and secondary sources. Interviews and documentation collected were also coded using the software NVIVO 12. The authors compared three municipal case studies: the City of Toronto (Ontario), the City of Guelph (Ontario), and the Town of Bridgewater (Nova Scotia). Findings The authors found that leadership is a prominent factor explaining the expansion of municipal climate action in Canada. Municipal climate action is initiated and championed by an individual, elected officials or municipal staff, who lead and engage in the development of policy instruments to mitigate and/or adapt to climate change. These leaders facilitate the formulation and implementation of instruments, encourage a paradigm shift within the municipality, overcome structural and behavioural barriers, and foster collaboration around a common vision. Optimal municipal climate leadership occurs when the leadership of elected officials and municipal is congruent, though networks play a significant role by amplifying municipal sustainability leadership. They support staff and elected officials leadership within municipalities, provide more information and funding to grow the capacity of municipalities to develop instruments, to the point that conditions under which municipalities are driving climate action are changing. Research limitations/implications This paper hopes to contribute to better understand under what conditions municipalities drive change. Originality/value There is an international scholarly recognition that municipalities should be further explored and considered important actors in the Canadian and international climate change governance. Gore (2010) and Robinson and Gore (2015) highlighted that we are yet to understand the extent to which municipalities are involved in climate governance in Canada. This article directly addresses this gap in the current scholarly literature and explores the expansion of climate municipal leadership with the aspects of interviews.

Touchant, L

Municipal climate leadership in Canada: the role of leadership in the expansion of municipal climate action

International Journal Of Public Leadership

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPL-08-2021-0040

Entrepreneurship is a tool for facilitating rural economic development, which is becoming increasingly needed to respond to the growing impacts of accelerating climate change on rural women's livelihoods in less developed countries creating constraints on sustainable development. This study examines the awareness of and impacts of climatic changes as perceived by women in South West Nigeria in diverse vegetation zones. It elicits the challenges facing women and which constrain their entrepreneurial activities. It therefore identifies potential adaptation strategies and opportunities, including drawing on a review of wider developments in at international development level, such as technological, institutional and infrastructural innovations. The study employed explorative, mixed approaches, including quantitative and qualitative methods. Five hundred and ninety-five questionnaires were administered to selected respondents through multi-stage sampling technique, while Focused Group Discussions (FGDs) were used to solicit qualitative data from two hundred and forty women. Quantitative data were analysed with SPSS for descriptive and analysis of variance, and Atlas ti. was used to thematically analyse qualitative data. Findings showed that women have high levels of awareness of changes in their climate. Analysis of variance revealed that most of the women involved in crop farming in the vegetation zones showed better understanding than women in other livelihood. They strongly agreed (with mean of approximately 5) that climate change had greatly affected soil fertility, caused less predictable, and prolonged the dry season. Over 90% of the women perceived significant impacts of these changes on their livelihood activities. Overall, there were no clear divergences in women's attitudes towards innovation and entrepreneurship between the vegetation zones and a relatively high expectation of government support. Wider review of current practice and innovations highlights a wide range of new opportunities for building women's adaptive capacity which could directly or indirectly catalyse increased entrepreneurship amongst women. Furthermore, the involvement of local authorities and community-based organisations, as well as diverse public and private actors, in the development of adaptation strategies is crucial to achieving this.

Akinbami, CAO; Olawoye, JE; Adesina, FA; Nelson, V

Exploring potential climate-related entrepreneurship opportunities and challenges for rural Nigerian women

Journal Of Global Entrepreneurship Research

https://doi.org/10.1186/s40497-018-0141-3

Amid increasing flood incidences and damages in many parts of the world, the fundamental question arises as to the extent to which poor and marginalized residents can manage disasters by receiving equitable, fair and just support. This paper seeks to examine this question by focusing on a poor and vulnerable area of Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka. Administratively this area is called Colombo Divisional Secretariat Division (DSD). Here mainly low-income residents live in congested housing conditions with narrow streets and poor drainage management. For years, this Division was regarded as one of the most flood vulnerable areas of Sri Lanka. To understand the resaons, we conducted our field research in this area and interviewed DSD officials and local people with three key equitable resilience dimensions in mind: distributive, procedural and contextual equities. We found that the intensity and frequency of rainfalls had increased in the area, but the residents had not received any flood protection support from the government due largely to some legal and socio-political complications. Many expressed their fear of the next flood incident. As these residents were without legal land ownership the government did not pay much attention to their needs. We also found that a low education level and a lack of political representation led to the marginalization of people in this area. Using information we collected at the Colombo DSD office and other relevant government agencies, we then examine a set of factors that are relevant to income and poverty level, population density, quality of housing, education, infrastructure and participatory decision making. The results show that flood loss and damage risks were heightened by such social vulnerability factors as low income, an unaffordability of flood resilient houses and an absence of policy implementations for flood resilient infrastructure. We also found that a lack of community leadership led to poor participation in decision making. This paper then highlights the important area for mainstreaming equitable community resilience actions.

Hewawasam, V; Matsui, K

Equitable resilience in flood prone urban areas in Sri Lanka: A case study in Colombo Divisional Secretariat Division

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102091

Mutually respectful and reciprocal relationships between people and their environment is a central tenet of many Indigenous worldviews. Across the Americas, this relational connection is particularly evident when it comes to freshwater ecosystems. However, there are numerous threats to these central relationships between Indigenous peoples and their environment. Using all available ways of knowing to conserve, prioritize, and restore relationships between Indigenous peoples and the environment they live in, and are a part of, is critical. Despite legislative requirements and policy commitments, developing and implementing inclusive approaches that bridge multiple ways of knowing remains a challenge. This systematic map examines the extent, range, and nature of published case studies that seek to bridge Indigenous and Western sciences in ecological research, monitoring, or natural resource management across Canada's freshwater aquatic ecosystems. A total of 74 Canadian case studies from 72 articles were included in the systematic map. There were 30 distinct species of focus across the collection of case studies. This systematic map highlights the diversity of ways knowledge systems can be woven, but that the application of these approaches is limited to some key regions (the Pacific and northern regions) and species (whitefish and salmon). The extent and nature of information provided with regards to demographics (e.g., gender, age) of Indigenous knowledge holders contributing to the studies varied widely and in general was poorly reported. Across all of the case studies included in the systematic map there were 78 distinct Indigenous knowledge systems represented. Fifteen different methodological approaches were identified with community-based participatory research being the most prevalent approach. The presence and diversity of Indigenous methodologies employed was also notable and was greater as compared to a previous study of Canada's coastal marine regions. Collectively, these findings point to a potential emerging transformation in research focused on freshwater ecosystems, habitats, and species to a practice that elevates the role of Indigenous communities, centres Indigenous science and knowledge, and is informed by Indigenous ways of being and doing.

Alexander, SM; Provencher, JF; Henri, DA; Nanayakkara, L; Taylor, JJ; Berberi, A; Lloren, JI; Johnson, JT; Ballard, M; Cooke, SJ

Bridging Indigenous and Western sciences in freshwater research, monitoring, and management in Canada

Ecological Solutions And Evidence

https://doi.org/10.1002/2688-8319.12085

Despite continuing efforts to upgrade the urban storm sewer system since the late 1950s, the City of Shanghai is still vulnerable to persistent rainstorm waterlogging due to excess surface runoff and sewer surcharge, which frequently cause significant damage to buildings and disruption to traffic. Rapid urbanization and associated land cover changes are the major factors contributing to waterlogging. However, it is unclear to what extent changes in rainfall variability over the past few decades are also involved. This paper investigates the combined impacts of land use and land cover change, storm sewer development, and long-term variations in precipitation. Evidence of persistent waterlogging is presented first. We then give an account of land surface modifications during the process of urbanization and the development of the city's urban storm sewer system. Statistical analysis suggests that the increase in runoff coefficient due to conversion of lands from agricultural to industrial, commercial, and residential uses is a major factor driving greater waterlogging risk. In particular, historical analysis of aerial photographs reveals the rate and extent of modification to river networks in the past few decades. The natural drainage network has shrunk by 270 km, significantly reducing the city's capacity to transport excess surface flow. In line with other studies, we find no significant overall trends in annual rainfall totals (at Baoshan and Xujiahui). However, seasonal and monthly rainfall intensities have increased. At the daily scale, we find that compared to pre-1980s: (i) there has been an increase in the number of wet days with precipitation exceeding 25 mm (Heavy Rainfall) and decrease in those below 25 mm and (ii) the number of consecutive wet days with precipitation maximum and average exceeding the threshold known to cause waterlogging shows an increasing trend. Since rainfall intensity is expected to increase under climate change, this could further compound the impacts of land use changes and place even greater pressure on the existing storm sewer system.

Wu, XD; Yu, DP; Chen, ZY; Wilby, RL

An evaluation of the impacts of land surface modification, storm sewer development, and rainfall variation on waterlogging risk in Shanghai

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0153-1

Dry spells and climatic hazards are responsible for maize output decline, sometimes to levels below potential yield levels. There is a pressing need to reduce the gap between actual and potential maize yield/ha, especially among farmers in semi-arid regions. This present study examines the potential role of supplemental irrigation and its differential impact on maize yield in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. In this study, maize yield data were generated from information recorded over a period of 20 years by farmers in Ntabankulu through cross-sectional interviews with 124 randomly-selected farming households. Maize yields for interviewed farmers were analysed for each of the experienced climatic hazards, for yield decline per ha and preferable adaptation strategies. Maize yield analyses show a maximum ceiling/attainable yield of 0.234 t/ha and average farm yield of 0.146 t/ha. Floods or hailstorms cause 75% decline in maize yield/ha and there was no significant difference between farmers practising irrigation and those practising dryland farming (P > 0.05). Low/no rains throughout the season; delay or low onset of rainfall and a rain-break for a week or more in a season results in 75%; 54% and 50.5% decline in maize yield/ha, respectively. On a scale of 1 to 10, farmers highly rank practicing supplementary irrigation (8.4) and change of planting date (7.8) as important adaptation strategies. Rescheduling planting date from the traditional planting times to earlier or later planting dates, assisted by use of weather reports and forecasting, to some extent curbs the impact of delays or slow onset of rainfall on yield. Supplemental irrigation is instrumental in reducing the impact of midseason drought (rains break for a week) and light rainfall throughout the season. Analyses of actual yields and yield decline against each of the experienced climatic hazards provided insight into management possibilities to stabilize maize output.

Ndhleve, S; Nakin, MDV; Longo-Mbenza, B

Impacts of supplemental irrigation as a climate change adaptation strategy for maize production: a case of the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa

Water Sa

https://doi.org/10.4314/wsa.v43i2.06

Smallholder labor migration and its relationship to climate change adaptation has received increasing attention, with migration often represented either as part of successful adaptive livelihood diversification or as symptomatic of a lack of in-place adaptive capacity. Using a case study, we focus on the relationship between labor migration, agrarian livelihood diversification, and climate change to further a more nuanced understanding of migration as adaptation than is implied by a simple dichotomy of success versus failure. Smallholder diversification, both on- and off-farm, has largely been framed as a risk spreading practice that lowers climate change vulnerability. But after decades of advocating livelihood diversification, with labor migration now increasingly a part of smallholder livelihood activities, it is urgent to pose a number of questions: Why do smallholders migrate? How does labor migration unfold for them and with what outcomes? Our primary goal here is to explore the nature of the relationship of labor migration to climate change and climate change adaptation. Through empirical fieldwork in northwestern Nicaragua, we explore the role of labor migration in smallholder household production and reproduction, as families confront increasingly difficult climatic conditions for agricultural production and a relative absence of the state within a neoliberal political economy. Our analysis draws on household surveys and qualitative interviews and focus groups we carried out in the municipality of Somotillo, in northwestern Nicaragua, over three years (2013-15). Our findings demonstrate that household labor migration neither facilitates adaptation to climate change nor reflects a failure to adapt, but rather reflects the weak position of smallholders in interlocking relations of power and the relative land scarcity experienced by many. We argue that labor migration barely maintains semi-subsistence agricultural production and reinforces existing social inequalities, raising questions regarding a conceptualization of migration as adaptation and the benefits of this type of livelihood diversification. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radel, C; Schmook, B; Carte, L; Mardero, S

Toward a Political Ecology of Migration: Land, Labor Migration, and Climate Change in Northwestern Nicaragua

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.04.023

The creation of 'usable science' is widely promoted by many environmental change focused research programs. Few studies however, have examined the relationship between research conducted as part of such programs and the decision-making outcomes that the work is supposed to advance, and is constrained by limited methodological development on how to empirically assess the 'usability' of science. Herein, this paper develops a conceptual model and assessment rubric to quantitatively and systematically evaluate the usability of climate change research for informing decision-making. We focus on the process through which data is collected, analyzed and reported and examine the extent to which key principles of usable science are integrated into project design, using grant proposals as our data source. The approach is applied to analyze climate change research conducted as part of the International Polar Year in Canada, with 23 projects identified as having explicit goals to inform decision-making. While the creation of usable science was promoted by funded projects in the International Polar Year, this was not generally reflected in research design: fewer than half determined objectives with input of decision makers, decision context was not widely considered, and knowledge users were not widely reported to be engaged in assessing the quality of data or in resolving conflict in evidence. The importance of science communication was widely emphasized, although only 8/23 projects discussed tailoring specific results for end user needs. Thus while International Polar Year research has made significant advances in understanding the human dimensions of Arctic climate change, key attributes necessary for determining success in linking science to decision-making (pertinence, quality, timeliness) were not captured by many projects. Integrating these attributes into research design from the outset is essential for creating usable science, and needs to be at the forefront of future research programs which aim to advance societal outcomes. The framework for assessing usability here, while developed and tested in an Arctic climate change context, has broader applicability in the general environmental change field. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ford, JD; Knight, M; Pearce, T

Assessing the 'usability' of climate change research for decision-making: A case study of the Canadian International Polar Year

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.06.001

The study assessed the utilization of entrepreneurial information provided through agricultural radio programme on Diamond FM Radio, University of Ibadan for arable crop farmers in Ibadan Peri-Urban. Simple random sampling technique was used in selecting 120 respondents from a list of programme feedback/contact farmers. Most of the respondents (56.7%) were between the age range of 49-56 years, 82.5% were male, 86.7% were married, 52.5% had secondary school education, with an average household size of (x) over bar =7.58, years of experience (x) over bar =24.7, with average land area cultivated ((x) over bar= 4.75 hectares). Entrepreneurial information mostly accessed were on sustainable land preparation practices ((x) over bar= 0.99) and exploring early season of farming ((x) over bar =0.98). Market information was perceived as most relevant entrepreneurial information to their enterprise, with radio talk (1=1.99) being the most preferred format for programme delivery. Respondents were mostly constrained by inadequate finance to purchase farm inputs ((x) over bar =1.99) in a bid to utilize entrepreneurial information. Entrepreneurial information utilized most were those on market information, soil conservation practices and mitigating the effects of climate change ((x) over bar =1.99). Significant relationship existed between membership of farmers' association (chi(2) = 5.091), household size (r=-0.186), relevance of entrepreneurial information to enterprise (r=0.801), format of programme delivery preferred (r=0.816), constraints to utilizing entrepreneurial information (r=0.374) and utilization of entrepreneurial information by arable crop farmers. Radio programme is thus an effective means of disseminating entrepreneurial information and its effective utilization is thus advocated.

Akinbile, LA; Oyebode, LA

Utilization of Information from Farmers' Forum on Diamond FM Radio, University of Ibadan by Arable Crop farmers in Ibadan Peri-Urban, Oyo State, Nigeria

Journal Of Agricultural Extension

https://doi.org/10.4314/jae.v22i1.6S

This study empirically investigates the impact (overall, regional, and seasonal) of weather and climate extremes on basic human needs by employing a new poverty index, i.e., the Human Needs Index (HNI), in the United States of America. Detecting the contemporaneous correlations between errors, we apply second-generation unit root tests on monthly statewide panel data ranging from January 2004 to December 2018. The results obtained through cross-sectional time-series feasible generalized least square (i.e., FGLS) regression suggest that human necessities statistically and significantly correlate with a positive response to the weather extremes (cold, low precipitation) and with extreme events (drought, flood). However, the response is the opposite of that in the case of high precipitation. The seasonal variations in necessities indicate that there is a significant escalation of the needs between July and December (January is taken as the reference month), but, in February, they substantially shrink. Furthermore, the regional implications imply that, with the West of the US taken as the reference region, needs are significantly augmented in the Midwest; conversely, in the east and the south, they are significantly decreased. We also observe that some interaction effects, such as high precipitation and personal income as an interaction term, significantly, but negatively, correlate with HNI, indicating a 0.025% shared effect. Contrary to these findings, high precipitation, coupled with supplements to wages and salaries, shows a positive joint association of 0.274% with HNI. Besides, low precipitation, coupled with the unemployment rate, personal income, and flooding, shows an additional positive and significant mutual effect, while low precipitation has a negative effect on basic human needs when coupled with supplements to wages and salaries. The corresponding estimated interacting coefficients are 3.77, scoring 0.053%, 0.592%, and 0.67%, respectively.

Ali, F; Huang, SA; Cheo, R

Climatic Impacts on Basic Human Needs in the United States of America: A Panel Data Analysis

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041508

Trying to meet the Sustainable Development Goals is challenging. Food supply chains may have to become more efficient to meet the increasing food requirement of 10 Billion people by 2050. At the same time, food and nutrition security are at risk from increasingly likely shocks like extreme climate events, market shocks, pandemics, changing consumer preferences, and price volatility. Here we consider some possibilities and limitations regarding the improvement of resilience (the capacity to deal with shocks) and efficiency (here interpreted as the share of produced food delivered to consumers) of food supply chains. We employ an Agent Based Model of a generic food chain network consisting of stylized individuals representing producers, traders, and consumers. We do this: 1/to describe the dynamically changing disaggregated flows of crop items between these agents, and 2/to be able to explicitly consider agent behaviour. The agents have implicit personal objectives for trading. We quantify resilience and efficiency by linking these to the fraction of fulfilment of the overall explicit objective to have all consumers meet their food requirement. We consider different types of network structures in combination with different agent interaction types under different types of stylized shocks. We find that generally the network structures with higher efficiency are also more sensitive to shocks, while less efficient network types display more resilience. At first glance these results seem to confirm the existence of a system-level trade-off between resilience and efficiency similar to what is reported in business management and ecology literature. However, the results are modified by the trading interactions and the type of shock. In our simulations resilience and efficiency are affected by `soft' boundaries caused by the preference and trust of agents (i.e., social aspects) in trading. The ability of agents to switch between trading partners represents an important aspect of resilience, namely a capacity to reorganize. These insights may be relevant when considering the reorganization of real-life food chains to increase their resilience to meet future food and nutrition security goals.

Van Voorn, G; Hengeveld, G; Verhagen, J

An agent based model representation to assess resilience and efficiency of food supply chains

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242323

This study reviewed some of the challenges faced by local authorities in disaster management, especially flood disasters that occurred in Malaysia. Flood disasters are the most frequent disasters in Malaysia, especially during the monsoon seasons. The hard structure developed by Malaysia's National Security Council (MKN) under 'Directive 20' is used to manage disasters in the country. Although Malaysia has become more skillful in managing flood disasters, the frequent climate changes along with weakness in implementing flood risk management plans resulted in much losses and damages throughout the country. Therefore, this study explored the gaps and weaknesses in flood risk management (FRM) in Malaysia by reviewing the available literature to recommend better flood management. This study revealed four main issues which are weaknesses in terms of (i) coordination and communication, (ii) manpower and assets, (iii) public awareness, and (iv) power and authority among local authorities to implement flood management plans. The capacity of local authorities and individuals in charge of disaster management is inadequate, especially for flood risk preparedness and management. Hence, responsible individuals are also in a vulnerable situation to implement management plans or rescue operations when flood disasters occur since they are also flood victims. Thus, the National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA) which acts as the main coordinator of disaster management in Malaysia should re-examine the flood management plan to ensure that it can be implemented efficiently and effectively, especially at the local level as they are the first respondents on the scene when the disaster occurs. The combination of both structural and non-structural measures might require in many cases the management of flood disasters; however, the disaster risk preparedness and management of individuals via customized training is a must to prevent flood disasters as well as minimize their impact. The flood management plan should also incorporate natural-based approaches at the whole-river-basin level for the long-term solution and sustainable development, not only focusing to manage the localized flood problem at the specific area.

Rosmadi, HS; Ahmed, MF; Bin Mokhtar, M; Lim, CK

Reviewing Challenges of Flood Risk Management in Malaysia

Water

https://doi.org/10.3390/w15132390

Landslides disrupt livelihoods, cause loss of human lives and damages to property and infrastructure. In the case of Nepal, the destructive impact of landslides has been steadily increasing as a result of the rising occupation of marginal land and extreme weather events caused by climate change. In particular, the impacts of seasonal, shallow landslides have been underestimated due to underreporting, and lack appropriate policy response. Within this paper, we argue that citizen science - the practice of incorporating the general public in the process of knowledge co-production - may help address this issue by increasing the knowledge base of stakeholders at different levels. We present the preliminary results from an interdisciplinary scoping study of two landslide sites in Western Nepal, in Bajhang and Bajura, where the Landslide-EVO research project, including a citizen science component, is currently being implemented. The aim of the project is to innovate participatory environmental monitoring and to generate evidence to support resilience. Our exploratory qualitative investigation outlines the strategies currently employed by the local communities that continue living in the landslide affected areas. These include demographic shifts and patterns, land use changes and occupational diversification. We argue that these existing local adaptation and mitigation practices compound a wealth of experiential knowledge. Based on evidence from literature, as well as our first-hand experience of starting citizen science activities in the both landslide sites, we argue that citizen science has the potential to build on local knowledge base and strengthen the adaptive capacities of different level stakeholders. Our theoretical contribution is the proposed typology of citizen-science interventions. We distinguish between community science, participatory environmental monitoring and virtual citizen science, providing examples of how they can benefit stakeholders at different levels and/or different types of research. Finally, we examine the ways in which different types of citizen science could be applied in our case study sites, specifying the conditions under which they can attain maximum usefulness.

Cieslik, K; Shakya, P; Uprety, M; Dewulf, A; Russell, C; Clark, J; Dhital, MR; Dhakal, A

Building Resilience to Chronic Landslide Hazard Through Citizen Science

Frontiers In Earth Science

https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00278

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) relies upon the capacity of ecosystems to buffer communities against the adverse impacts of climate change. Maintaining ecosystems that deliver critical services to communities can also provide co-benefits beyond adaptation, such as climate mitigation and protection of biological diversity and livelihoods. EbA has, to a limited extent, drawn upon indigenous and local knowledge for defining critical services and for implementing EbA in decision-making. This is a paradox given that the primary focus of EbA is to enable communities to adapt to climate change. The purpose of this study was to elucidate EbA strategies that take into account the knowledge of Sami reindeer herders about pastures in tundra regions. We first examined what constitutes critical services through a synthesis of data and literature. We thereafter used content analysis of 91 land use cases from 2010 to 2018 to investigate to what extent the herders' knowledge and maps over seasonal pastures and migratory routes are used in local decision-making. Finally, we propose EbA strategies of relevance to Sami communities and pastoral communities elsewhere. Our analysis revealed that reindeer herders and organizations representing their interests perceived threats from green energy development, tourism, recreation, public road construction and powerlines. These threats included the loss of key habitats and the loss of connectivity for migration between seasonal pastures. Pastoralists' knowledge is incorporated through participatory tools to protect the ecosystems and services crucial for pastoralists, but multiple competing land uses result in incremental loss of pastures regardless. Synthesis and applications. Protecting pasture ecosystems and the services they deliver, including the connectivity between pastures, are necessary Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) strategies to buffer the adverse effects of climate change. Drawing on pastoralists' knowledge to elicit EbA strategies can inform decision-making, but it is equally important to implement this knowledge for prioritizing adaptation needs in the assessment of competing land use.

Hausner, VH; Engen, S; Brattland, C; Fauchald, P

Sami knowledge and ecosystem-based adaptation strategies for managing pastures under threat from multiple land uses

Journal Of Applied Ecology

https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13559

Local governments have a key role to play in implementing climate innovations as they have jurisdiction over a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions. Meeting the Climate Change Challenge (MC3) is the first longitudinal study exploring climate innovation in Canadian municipalities. A tri-university research collaborative, it focuses on British Columbia (BC), whose voluntary efforts to set and meet climate change goals were far more ambitious than those offered by the federal government (and almost any other province in North America at the time). These efforts included introducing a carbon tax and the Climate Action Charter voluntary agreement in 2007. Since then, 187 of the 190 local governments in BC have signed the Charter to take action on climate change. Research in the first phase of MC(3)explored the dynamics of innovative local responses to the coordinated suite of government legislation, complimentary policy instruments, financial incentives and partnerships with quasi-institutional partners. In the second phase, the 11 original case studies were revisited to explore the nature of transformative change in development paths and indicators of change. Methods include sentiment analysis, decomposition analysis of regional/local emissions, and modelling relationships between climate action co-benefits and trade-offs. This paper provides a synthesis of research outcomes and their implications for environmental governance at multiple scales and the potential of policy innovations to accelerate transformation towards carbon neutral economies. Key policy insights Local governments are on the front line of identifying indicators of change in current development paths and policy innovations to effect the necessary changes for transformation to carbon neutral economies. Barriers to transformational change include lack of coordination or concerted action across multiple scales of governance, electoral cycles and large swings in leadership, and lack of policy coherence across governance levels. Drivers of climate innovation include leadership at multiple levels of governance. Understanding the co-benefits (and trade-offs) of climate actions is important for integrated strategies that achieve broader sustainability goals, as well as accelerating more innovations on climate change.

Dale, A; Robinson, J; King, L; Burch, S; Newell, R; Shaw, A; Jost, F

Meeting the climate change challenge: local government climate action in British Columbia, Canada

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1651244

The goal of this paper is to analyze how and with what results place-based climate service coproduction may be enacted within a community for whom climate change is not a locally salient concern. Aiming to initiate a climate-centered dialogue, a hybrid team of scientists and artists collected local narratives within the Kerourien neighbourhood, in the city of Brest in Brittany, France. Kerourien is a place known for its stigmatizing crime, poverty, marginalization and state of disrepair. Social work is higher on the agenda than climate action. The team thus acknowledged that local narratives might not make much mention of climate change, and recognized part of the work might be to shift awareness to the actual or potential, current or future, connections between everyday non-climate concerns and climate issues. Such a shift called for a practical intervention, centered on local culture. The narrative collection process was dovetailed with preparing the neighbourhood's 50th anniversary celebration and establishing a series of art performances to celebrate the neighbourhood and its residents. Non-climate and quasi-climate stories were collected, documented, and turned into art forms. The elements of climate service co-production in this process are twofold. First, they point to the ways in which non-climate change related local concerns may be mapped out in relation to climate change adaptation, showing how non-climate change concerns call for climate information. Secondly, they show how the co-production of climate services may go beyond the provision of climate information by generating procedural benefits such as local empowerment - thus generating capacities that may be mobilized to face climate change. We conclude by stressing that place-based climate service co-production for action may require questioning the nature of the services rendered, questioning the nature of place, and questioning what action entails. We offer leads for addressing these questions in ways that help realise empowerment and greater social justice.

Baztan, J; Vanderlinden, JP; Jaffres, L; Jorgensen, B; Zhu, Z

Facing climate injustices: Community trust-building for climate services through arts and sciences narrative co-production

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100253

This article is a collation and synthesis of the literature review with the focus on the vulnerability of rural women in developing countries to climate change on the one hand and being pro-active in adapting to climate change on the other. The geographic coverage of the literature is global but with specific examples from India. The information presented in this paper is derived from diverse sources including journal articles and thematic books, and indicates severe adverse impacts not only on women's livelihood opportunities but also on exacerbating the workload and fatigue while decreasing their self esteem and forcing them to undertake some high risks and hazardous activities. The literature indicates that poverty, gender inequality, insecure land rights, heavy reliance on agriculture, less access to education and information are among the principal reasons for their vulnerability to climate change. The vulnerability is also confounded by the meager asset base, social marginalization, lack of mobility and exclusion from the decision-making processes in response to a disaster. However, the literature also shows that women are not only the passive victims of climate change but are also pro-active and agents of hope for adaptation to and mitigation of abrupt climate change. They utilize their experience and expertise to reduce the adverse impacts by adopting prudent strategies. They are also concerned about environmental issues, and are highly supportive of policies regarding environmental restoration. Large knowledge gaps exist regarding the vulnerability of women to changing and uncertain climate especially in arid regions. Authors of this article suggest some action plans and strategies to minimize vulnerability to climate change such as empowering women economically and educationally, organizing training and outreach programmes, and involving them in formal climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and programmes. Authors also outline research needed in order to identify and implement strategies regarding climate change. Collective and continuous efforts are critical to finding the sustainable solutions for this global phenomenon which is adversely impacting the most vulnerable but critically important members of the society. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Yadav, SS; Lal, R

Vulnerability of women to climate change in arid and semi-arid regions: The case of India and South Asia

Journal Of Arid Environments

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2017.08.001

Across a range of environmental change and crisis-driven research fields, including conservation, climate change and sustainability studies, the rhetoric of participatory and engaged research has become somewhat of a normative and mainstream mantra. Aligning with cautionary tales of participatory approaches, this article suggests that, all too often, 'engaged' research is taken up uncritically and without care, often by pragmatist, post-positivist and neoliberal action-oriented researchers, for whom the radical and relational practice of PAR is paradigmatically (ontologically, epistemologically and/or axiologically) incommensurable. Resisting depoliticised and rationalist interpretations of participatory methodologies, I strive in this article to hold space for the political, relational and ethical dimensions of collaboration and engagement. Drawing on four years of collaborative ethnographic climate research in the Peruvian Andes with campesinos of Quilcayhuanca, I argue that resituating Participatory Action Research (PAR) within a feminist and indigenous ethics of care more fully aligns with the radical participatory praxis for culturally appropriate transformation and the liberation of oppressed groups. Thus, I do not abandon the participatory methodology altogether, rather this article provides a hopeful reworking of the participatory methodology and, specifically, participatory and community-based adaptation (CBA) practices, in terms of a feminist and indigenous praxis of love-care-response. In so doing, I strive to reclaim the more radical feminist and Indigenous elements - the affective, relational and political origins of collaborative knowledge production - and rethink research in the rupture of climate crises, relationally. The ethico-political frictions and tensions inherent in engaged climate scholarship are drawn into sharp relief, and deep reflection on the responsibility researchers take on when asking questions in spaces and times of ecological loss, trauma and grief is offered.

Haverkamp, J

Where's the Love? Recentring Indigenous and Feminist Ethics of Care for Engaged Climate Research

Gateways-International Journal Of Community Research And Engagement

https://doi.org/10.5130/ijcre.v14i2.7782

This article advances a vulnerability framework to understand how climatic risks and change are experienced and responded to by Inuit harvesters using a case study from Iqaluit, Nunavut. The article makes important contributions to methodological design in vulnerability studies, emphasizing the importance of longitudinal study design, real-time observations of human-environment interactions, community-based monitoring, and mixed methods. Fieldwork spanned five years, during which sixty-four semistructured interviews were conducted and historical records examined to develop an understanding of the processes and conditions affecting vulnerability. A local land use monitoring team was established, collecting approximate to 22,000km of land use Global Positioning System (GPS) data and engaging in biweekly interviews (more than 100) on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This was complemented by analysis of instrumental data on sea ice and climate conditions. Results indicate that sea ice conditions are changing rapidly and affecting trail conditions, safety, and access to harvesting grounds. GPS data and biweekly interviews document real-time adaptations, with traditional knowledge and land-based skills, resource use flexibility, and mobility underpinning significant adaptability, including utilizing new areas, modifying trail routes, and taking advantage of an extended open water season. Sociospatial reorganization following resettlement in the 1950s and 1960s, however, has created dependency on external conditions, has reduced the flexibility of harvesting activities, and has affected knowledge systems. Within the context of these slow variables, current responses that are effective in moderating vulnerability could undermine adaptive capacity in the long term, representing overspecialized adaptations, creating the potential for further loss of response diversity and flexibility, and engendering potential downstream effects, creating trajectories of maladaptation. These findings challenge previous research that has argued that current resilience of the Inuit socioecological system is indicative of high adaptive capacity to future change and indicates that climate change might pose more serious risks to the harvesting sector than previously assumed.

Ford, JD; McDowell, G; Shirley, J; Pitre, M; Siewierski, R; Gough, W; Duerden, F; Pearce, T; Adams, P; Statham, S

The Dynamic Multiscale Nature of Climate Change Vulnerability: An Inuit Harvesting Example

Annals Of The Association Of American Geographers

https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2013.776880

Following a case study, community adaptation plans are a bottom-up approach that focus on increasing climate-vulnerable communities' engagement in local adaptation planning and policy design, prioritization, and implementation in Nepal. This paper explains how Community-Based Adaptation Action Plan (CAPA) groups are being studied to assess the climate vulnerability of the local socio-ecosystem and to develop community-level adaptation measures. However, there is insufficient research to differentiate local vulnerabilities caused by climate change. This paper, therefore, examines climate change vulnerability with respect to community vulnerability and potential adaptation measures to increase community resilience and adaptive capacity through CAPAs. The study compares differences by gender, caste/ethnicity, and wealth in relation to specific climate-related hazards (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) of communities. The study draws on secondary sources of information along with field observations, 73 household interviews, 13 key-informant interviews, consultations, and 9 interactive meetings in 3 districts of Nepal. Differential impact analysis refers to the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of local socio-ecological systems. In addition, multivariate analysis was conducted using the Canoco program to analyze the role of actors with respect to climate vulnerability. The results conclude that the degree of vulnerability varies widely at the household level and is strongly influenced by socio-economic characteristics such as gender, caste/ethnicity, and wealth. Immediate and focused attention is needed to improve access to government resources for vulnerable households, requiring positive support from decision makers. Equally important is improving the chain of communication, which includes information, skills, knowledge, capacity, and institutional arrangements. Analysis of the differential vulnerability and the adaptive capacity of a vulnerable community is more appropriate for the design of local adaptation plans. Therefore, the study suggests that engagement of local partners, including local authorities, in addressing vulnerability and adaptation is required to confront the social process, new institutional arrangements, local adaptation, and capacity-building with technical solutions.

Khadka, C; Upadhyaya, A; Edwards-Jonásová, M; Dhungana, N; Baral, S; Cudlin, P

Differential Impact Analysis for Climate Change Adaptation: A Case Study from Nepal

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su14169825

Evidence is increasing of human responses to the impacts of climate change in Africa. However, understanding of the effectiveness of these responses for adaptation to climate change across the diversity of African contexts is still limited. Despite high reliance on indigenous knowledge (IK) and local knowledge (LK) for climate adaptation by African communities, potential of IK and LK to contribute to adaptation through reducing climate risk or supporting transformative adaptation responses is yet to be established. Here, we assess the influence of IK and LK for the implementation of water sector adaptation responses in Africa to better understand the relationship between responses to climate change and indigenous and local knowledge systems. Eighteen (18) water adaptation response types were identified from the academic literature through the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI) and intended nationally determined contributions (iNDCs) for selected African countries. Southern, West, and East Africa show relatively high evidence of the influence of IK and LK on the implementation of water adaptation responses, while North and Central Africa show lower evidence. At country level, Zimbabwe displays the highest evidence (77.8%) followed by Ghana (53.6%), Kenya (46.2%), and South Africa (31.3%). Irrigation, rainwater harvesting, water conservation, and ecosystem-based measures, mainly agroforestry, were the most implemented measures across Africa. These were mainly household and individual measures influenced by local and indigenous knowledge. Adaptation responses with IK and LK influence recorded higher evidence of risk reduction compared to responses without IK and LK. Analysis of iNDCs shows the most implemented water adaptation actions in academic literature are consistent with water sector adaptation targets set by most African governments. Yet only 10.4% of the African governments included IK and LK in adaptation planning in the iNDCs. This study recommends a coordinated approach to adaptation that integrates multiple knowledge sources, including IK and LK, to ensure sustainability of both current and potential water adaptation measures in Africa.

Zvobgo, L; Johnston, P; Williams, PA; Trisos, CH; Simpson, NP

The role of indigenous knowledge and local knowledge in water sector adaptation to climate change in Africa: a structured assessment

Sustainability Science

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-022-01118-x

The study evaluated perceived reactions and counter-actions of Himalayan communities to climate change. The evaluation was conducted through identification and characterization of 62 socio-environment-specific indicators in three altitude zones (< 1200 m asl (zone A), 1200-1800 m asl (zone B), and > 1800 m asl (zone C)) in Pauri district, Uttarakhand, India, using a bottom-up, indicator-based approach. Indicators with higher significance for the local economy, livelihoods, or conservation were selected and assimilated into dimensions of vulnerability and resilience. Finally, these were integrated into a sustainable livelihood framework in an approach intended to calculate vulnerability and resilience jointly. The results indicated that the vulnerability and resilience of the mountain communities studied varied widely along the altitude gradient, due to variations in socioeconomic profile, livelihood requirements, resource availability, accessibility, and utilization pattern, and climate risk. The overall values for vulnerability (exposure + sensitivity-adaptive capacity) and resilience (exposure + sensitivity-restorative capacity) were, respectively, 0.34 and 0.28 in zone A, 0.54 and 0.37 in zone B, and 0.65 and 0.59 in zone C. There was a significant difference in contribution of indicators to vulnerability and resilience along the altitudinal gradient was recorded. Strategies for dealing with site-specific vulnerability are required and should address bottlenecks in accessibility and availability of food, water, and healthcare; sustainable utilization of forest resources; educational attainment and skill enhancement; and migration. These results extend current knowledge among the research community and policymakers on socio-ecological changes affecting mountain communities. To reduce the policy level gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches, we suggest precautionary and ongoing site-specific traditional practices and modern adaptation practices, leading to effective and efficient handling of local issues in the context of climate change.

Jha, SK; Negi, AK; Alatalo, JM; Negi, RS

Socio-ecological vulnerability and resilience of mountain communities residing in capital-constrained environments

Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-021-09974-1

The fast-growing, coastal megacities of the Asia-Pacific region are expanding into areas that are vulnerable to marine-related physical natural hazards, or, because of physical environmental changes, will become increasingly vulnerable within the timescale of city planning. The hazards comprise those that are due to extreme events such as storm surge and tsunami which may be catastrophic in their impacts; and those that relate to continuing changes over the long-term, notably global sea-lever rise, sedimentary consolidation and coastal erosion. The latter may be exacerbated by human activities such as the increasing production of 'greenhouse' gases and over-abstraction of groundwater, and, while not threatening catastrophic loss of life or destruction of property, do have important economic and social implications for the future. There are two complementary approaches to hazard mitigation - constraining the hazard, and reducing vulnerability to the hazard. The contributions that science can make in the planning and implementation of sustainable adaptive measures are to improve the quantification of the incidence and severity of the various hazards, establishing realistic timescales of incidence, estimating return periods; and to establish the geographical limits of vulnerability to the hazards in a range of likely scenarios over timescales appropriate to the planning cycle. Contemporary, high risk, hazard scenarios for existing city developments demand an approach which focuses on effective warning networks and emergency planning; long-term, incremental hazards that are forecast to affect both developed and periurban areas can be addressed with a strategic planning approach, involving relocation and capital protective works. The selection of strategic measures demands the best possible predictive information on hazards and on vulnerability, including its full socio-economic evaluation so that the costs and benefits of the possible mitigation options can be realistically assessed. A predictive capacity, developed through modelling, requires the collection of reliable baseline and monitoring data relating to the hazards over a range of timescales in local, regional and global perspectives. (C) 1998 Natural Environment Research Council. Elsevier Science Ltd.

Arthurton, RS

Marine-related physical natural hazards affecting coastal megacities of the Asia-Pacific region - awareness and mitigation

Ocean & Coastal Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0964-5691(98)00077-5

Flooding is one of the most destructive climatic hazards which has affected agricultural activities in the world, especially Sub-Saharan Africa. This article investigated the impact of the recurrent annual floods on food pro-duction and how subsistent farmers have adapted to resultant food insecurity in the Sudan Savannah agroeco-logical zone of Ghana. The specific objectives of the study were to understand the nature of flooding (frequency, period and extent of coverage of flood water), how the perennial floods contribute to food insecurity, how farmers adapt to it to contribute towards policy development on flood control and improve food security. Pri-mary data were collected using questionnaires, interviews, focus group discussions and field observation. Sec-ondary data were obtained from documents and reports from NADMO and MOFA. The questionnaires were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science and the focus group discussions, interviews, and fieldwork were analyzed manually using content analysis. The findings show that the study areas experience floods every year. Between 2007 and 2018, eleven floods event occurred in the study communities. The floods usually occur around August and September when rainfall is torrential coupled with overflow from the spillage of the Bagre dam upstream. The flooding has resulted in a decline in food production among subsistent farmers. As a result, households in study communities are food insecure. Farmers have learned to cope with floods/food insecurity by engaging in alternative livelihoods such as flood recession farming, dry season farming, petty trading. They have also employed other means such as rationings of food and social networks cope with food insecurity. In all these strategies, women play a critical role as they are largely in charge of food preparation and dishing. The study recommends strengthening of the alternative livelihoods, introduction of short maturing crop varieties, sensi-tisation of women on the preparation of healthy meals.

Yiran, GAB; Atubiga, JA; Kusimi, JM; Kwang, C; Owusu, AB

Adaptation to perennial flooding and food insecurity in the Sudan savannah agroecological zone of Ghana

Environmental Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2022.114037

In 2012 Sweden implemented a collaborative governance regime for managing moose (Alces aloes). This was guided by the awareness that decentralization and stakeholder participation can help to reduce conflicts, foster systematic learning, and handle complexity. However, previous research has highlighted that there are no blueprint approaches to the governance and management of natural resources. In this case, diverse multi-use landscapes, ever-changing ungulate populations, and other external stressors (e.g. climate change, wildlife diseases) can create challenges for collaborative institutions. Adaptive capacity is therefore needed as it allows a system and the actors involved to react successfully to social-ecological changes and to develop even in times of no imminent change or risk. Using Swedish moose management as an example of a multi-level governance system, this research assesses the critical determinants of adaptive capacity across levels. We developed and applied a psychometric approach to measure actors' perceived adaptive capacity on two levels in the management system. A web-based survey was sent to Moose Management Groups (n = 765, response rate = 81 %) and Moose Management Units (n = 1,380, response rate = 71 %). Using structural equation modelling, we assessed the relative importance of governance aspects, different types of social capital, as well as human and financial capital on actors' perceived adaptive capacity. Linking and bridging social capital in the system had significant impacts on both levels. Actors felt more prepared to handle future challenges in moose management when they perceived benefits through collaborations with levels below and expressed social trust in authorities and the management level above. Besides those similarities between the two levels, fairness was a more important determinant of actors' perceived adaptive capacity on the lower management level. These results can contribute to a future improvement of the collaborative governance setting by finessing strategic interventions on different levels. Furthermore, our results illustrate the importance of scale when assessing the adaptive capacity of a system.

Dressel, S; Johansson, M; Ericsson, G; Sandström, C

Perceived adaptive capacity within a multi-level governance setting: The role of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.11.011

Floods, droughts, heat waves, and storms have always been part of human lives because they are a normal part of climate variability. However, the observed trends and projected changes in global climate have the potential to alter patterns of these climatic hazards and extreme weather events. Extreme precipitation is one of the factors that contribute to flash floods, but it is the characteristics of the environment, individuals, and society that can turn these natural phenomena into life-threatening disasters. Past decades of disaster risk research and assessments have lead to many innovative approaches to integrating data across disciplinary domains. Recent advancements in integration of meteorological information with other environmental and social data, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), allow for integrated spatial assessments of societal vulnerability to weather-related hazards. A case study presented in this article builds on the substantial body of previous and ongoing research that is focused on developing improved methods for characterizing and quantifying vulnerabilities to weather hazards, in general, and extreme precipitation events, in particular. Integrating social science into meteorological research and practice has been a key interdisciplinary direction in the meteorological community. Therefore, with specific attention to integrating spatially explicit information on weather and society, this article focuses on interactions between meteorological and social characteristics of an extreme precipitation event that resulted in a flash flood disaster in Fort Collins, Colorado. Using the data from 1997 Fort Collins, Colorado extreme precipitation event, this study constructs a straightforward methodology for integrating meteorological data with readily available societal information into a GIS-based analysis of vulnerable people and places. With the goal of developing specific, targeted interventions and flash flood preparedness and emergency response actions, the analysis of societal vulnerability presented in this paper is specifically focused on the factors affecting population's response and coping capacities to an extreme precipitation event. Challenges associated with data limitations and integration of meteorological and societal data, with diverse units and scales, into a standardized relative vulnerability measure are discussed. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wilhelmi, OV; Morss, RE

Integrated analysis of societal vulnerability in an extreme precipitation event: A Fort Collins case study

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.005

There is a need for participatory methods that simultaneously assess agricultural sustainability and resilience at farming system level, as resilience is needed to deal with shocks and stresses on the pathways to more sustainable systems. We present the Framework of Participatory Impact Assessment for Sustainable and Resilient FARMing systems (FoPIA-SURE-Farm). FoPIA-SURE-Farm investigates farming system functioning, dynamics of main indicators, and specifies resilience for different resilience capacities, i.e., robustness, adaptability, and transformability. Three case studies with specialized farming systems serve as an example for the used methodology: starch potato production in Veenkolonien, The Netherlands; dairy production in Flanders, Belgium; and hazelnut production in Lazio, Italy. In all three farming systems, functions that related to food production, economic viability, and maintaining natural resources were perceived as most important. Perceived overall performance of system functions suggest moderate sustainability of the studied farming systems. In the studied systems, robustness was perceived to be stronger than adaptability and transformability. This indicates that finding pathways to higher sustainability, which requires adaptability and transformability, will be a challenging process. General characteristics of farming systems that supposedly convey general resilience, the so-called resilience attributes, were indeed perceived to contribute positively to resilience. Profitability, having production coupled with local and natural resources, heterogeneity of farm types, social self-organization, and infrastructure for innovation were assessed as being important resilience attributes. The relative importance of some resilience attributes in the studied systems differed from case to case, e.g., heterogeneity of farm types. This indicates that the local context in general, and stakeholder perspectives in particular, are important when evaluating general resilience and policy options based on resilience attributes. Overall, FoPIA-SURE-Farm results seem a good starting point for raising awareness, further assessments, and eventually for developing a shared vision and action plan for improving sustainability and resilience of farming systems.

Paas, W; Coopmans, I; Severini, S; van Ittersum, MK; Meuwissen, MPM; Reidsma, P

Participatory assessment of sustainability and resilience of three specialized farming systems

Ecology And Society

https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12200-260202

Climate change is an obvious worldwide phenomenon closely related to human development, growth and consumption patterns, and it threatens land use, development, people and the environment. Due to its characteristics, Spain is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the European Union (EU). Thus, spatial planning is considered one of the main instruments available to manage sustainable adaptation to climate change. This article presents an assessment framework for exploring climate change impacts using participatory geographic information systems (PGISs)-multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) spatial planning with the preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) in sustainable land-use adaptation. Assessment planning applies to any agroforestry system at a regional level for a municipality with higher vulnerability. An indicator-based model with five categorical values was developed to assess twelve possible impacts from climate change and the main threats of climate change to water sources, agriculture, soil, and land management. This model is available to manage sustainable land-use adaptation priorities for climate change in a spatial context. The model discusses the likelihood of implementing and adopting strategies for climate change adaptation as assessed by a sensitivity analysis and a professional online survey. Among the five strategies, scenario A (suitability map) accounts for 8.84% of the priority areas (v) and 2.13% of the hot spots (i) and was the scenario most supported by professionals, while scenario D (priority to socioeconomic) accounts for 3.07% of the priority areas and 10.12% of the hotspots, and the lowest number of professionals supported this scenario. The results summarize foreseeable problems derived from climate change effects that require urgent adaptation activities through spatial land assessment planning. Thus, this study provides some recommendations and limitations from which decision-makers can select the most suitable arrangement for an agroforestry system to make it climate-resilient, and the study is applicable to similar geographical and spatial locations.

Jeong, JS

Design of spatial PGIS-MCDA-based land assessment planning for identifying sustainable land-use adaptation priorities for climate change impacts

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.09.001

This study integrated local and scientific knowledge to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on food security in West Pokot County, Kenya from 1980-2012. It characterized rainfall and temperature from 1980-2011 and the phenology of agricultural vegetation, assessed land use and land cover (LULC) changes, and surveyed local knowledge and perceptions of the relationships between climate change and variability, land use decisions, and food (in)security. The 124 respondents were aware of long-term changes in their environment, with 68% strongly believing that climate has become more variable. The majority of the respondents (88%) reported declining rainfall and rising temperatures, with respondents in the lowland areas reporting shortened growing seasons that affected food production. Meteorological data for 1980-2011 confirmed high inter-annual rainfall variability around the mean value of 973.4 mm/yr but with no notable trend. Temperature data showed an increasing trend between 1980 and 2012 with lowlands and highlands showing changes of +1.25 degrees C and +1.29 degrees C, respectively. Land use and land cover changes between 1984 and 2010 showed cropland area increased by +4176% (+33,138 ha), while grassland and forest areas declined by -49% (-96,988 ha) and -38% (-65,010 ha), respectively. These area changes illustrate human-mediated responses to the rainfall variability, such as increased stocking after good rainfall years and crop area expansion. The mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values ranged from 0.36-0.54 within a year, peaking in May and September. For weather-related planning, respondents relied on radio (64%) and traditional forecasters (26%) as predominant information sources. Supporting continuous climate change monitoring, intensified early warning systems, and disseminating relevant information to farmers could help farmers adopt appropriate adaptation strategies.

Obwocha, EB; Ramisch, JJ; Duguma, L; Orero, L

The Relationship between Climate Change, Variability, and Food Security: Understanding the Impacts and Building Resilient Food Systems in West Pokot County, Kenya

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020765

Amazonia and the Northeast region of Brazil exhibit the highest levels of climate vulnerability in the country. While Amazonia is characterized by an extremely hot and humid climate and hosts the world largest rainforest, the Northeast is home to sharp climatic contrasts, ranging from rainy areas along the coast to semiarid regions that are often affected by droughts. Both regions are subject to extremely high temperatures and are susceptible to many tropical diseases. This study develops a multidimensional Extreme Climate Vulnerability Index (ECVI) for Brazilian Amazonia and the Northeast region based on the Alkire-Foster method. Vulnerability is defined by three components, encompassing exposure (proxied by seven climate extreme indicators), susceptibility (proxied by sociodemographic indicators), and adaptive capacity (proxied by sanitation conditions, urbanization rate, and healthcare provision). In addition to the estimated vulnerability levels and intensity, we break down the ECVI by indicators, dimensions, and regions, in order to explore how the incidence levels of climate-sensitive infectious and parasitic diseases correlate with regional vulnerability. We use the Grade of Membership method to reclassify the mesoregions into homoclimatic zones based on extreme climatic events, so climate and population/health data can be analyzed at comparable resolutions. We find two homoclimatic zones: Extreme Rain (ER) and Extreme Drought and High Temperature (ED-HT). Vulnerability is higher in the ED-HT areas than in the ER. The contribution of each dimension to overall vulnerability levels varies by homoclimatic zone. In the ER zone, adaptive capacity (39%) prevails as the main driver of vulnerability among the three dimensions, in contrast with the approximately even dimensional contribution in the ED-HT. When we compare areas by disease incidence levels, exposure emerges as the most influential dimension. Our results suggest that climate can exacerbate existing infrastructure deficiencies and socioeconomic conditions that are correlated with tropical disease incidence in impoverished areas.

Andrade, LDB; Guedes, GR; Noronha, KVMD; Silva, CMSE; Andrade, JP; Martins, ASFS

¶Health-related vulnerability to climate extremes in homoclimatic zones of Amazonia and Northeast region of Brazil

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259780

In this work we evaluate the implications of climate change for future fluvial flood risk in Europe, considering climate developments under the SRES A2 (high emission) and B2 (low emission) scenario. We define flood risk as the product of flood probability (or hazard), exposure of capital and population, and vulnerability to the effect of flooding. From the European flood hazard simulations of Dankers and Feyen (J Geophys Res 114:D16108, 2009) discharges with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250 and 500 years were extracted and converted into flood inundation extents and depths using a planar approximation approach. Flood inundation extents and depths were transformed into direct monetary damage using country specific flood depth-damage functions and land use information. Population exposure was assessed by overlaying the flood inundation information with data on population density. By linearly interpolating damages and population exposed between the different return periods, we constructed damage and population exposure probability functions under present and future climate. From the latter expected annual damages (EAD) and expected annual population exposed (EAP) were calculated. To account for flood protection the damage and population exposure probability functions were truncated at design return periods based on the country GDP/capita. Results indicate that flood damages are projected to rise across much of Western Europe. Decreases in flood damage are consistently projected for north-eastern parts of Europe. For EU27 as a whole, current EAD of approximately a,not sign6.4 billion is projected to amount to a,not sign14-21.5 billion (in constant prices of 2006) by the end of this century, depending on the scenario. The number of people affected by flooding is projected to rise by approximately 250,000 to 400,000. Notwithstanding these numbers are subject to uncertainty, they provide an indication of potential future developments in flood risk in a changing climate.

Feyen, L; Dankers, R; Bódis, K; Salamon, P; Barredo, JI

Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0339-7

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region's climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +1.5 degrees C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >2.0 degrees C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica's agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +1.5 degrees C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +1.5 degrees C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica's agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +1.5 degrees C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.

Rhiney, K; Eitzinger, A; Farrell, AD; Prager, SD

Assessing the implications of a 1.5°C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1409-4

South Asia is the world's most poverty-dense region, where climate change and climate variability are expected to result in increased heat stress and erratic precipitation patterns that affect agricultural productivity. Considerable evidence has been generated on the effects of these stresses on crop yield, though previous research has not yet examined their influence on the economic efficiency of cereal producers. Surveying 240 farmers across eight of Pakistan's twelve agro-ecological zones, we examined the impact of temperature and precipitation anomalies as indicators of climatic variability and the number of days when temperature exceeds crop specific heat stress thresholds on the economic efficiency of rice and wheat production. To this end, we employed first-stage stochastic production frontier (SPF) models and second-stage ordinary least square (OLS) and quantile regression models. Both OLS and quantile regressions indicated that terminal heat > 34 degrees C has a significant negative impact on wheat production economic efficiency. Small positive deviation (0.54 degrees C +/- 0.16 SD) of the wheat season's mean temperature from the medium-term historical mean also significantly and negatively affected economic efficiency across all regression models. Heat stress > 35.5 degrees C during rice flowering in the monsoon also had a significant and negative impact. A slight positive deviation in temperature averaging 0.38 degrees C (+/- 0.11 SD) above the medium-term mean also had significant negative effects across all regressions. Cumulative precipitation conversely had significant yet contrary effects, by offsetting farmers' investment in supplementary irrigation and increasing economic efficiency. Our results highlight the fact that indicators of climatic variability and heat stress negatively affect the economic efficiency of both rice and wheat producing farmers. Farmers' education and access to financial and extension services were however both positively associated with economic efficiency. Our findings point to the importance of developing interlinked agronomic, economic and socio-ecological policy strategies to adapt and increase the resilience of Pakistan's cereal systems to climatic variability.

Arshad, M; Amjath-Babu, TS; Aravindakshan, S; Krupnik, TJ; Toussaint, V; Kächele, H; Müller, K

Climatic variability and thermal stress in Pakistan's rice and wheat systems: A stochastic frontier and quantile regression analysis of economic efficiency

Ecological Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.12.014

Problem, research strategy, and findings Places around the world already experience significant damage from climate change-related weather events, economic disruption, and health impacts, exacerbated by poverty, segregation, and inequitable infrastructure. Unfortunately, Texas provides a perfect illustration of these forces, with impacts made even more severe by a lack of climate planning. How can planners minimize harm and reduce risk, given the state leadership's unwillingness to undertake climate planning? One place to start is to investigate residents' climate change beliefs to understand whether they share the state's climate antagonism and then use this information to shape a planning response. In this study, I analyzed a survey (n = 1,053) to ask: What are Texans' perceptions of climate change, and how can planners use this knowledge to create strategies to catalyze climate planning? Respondents expressed strong agreement about negative effects of climate change and increased frequency of extreme weather. They believed that climate change is due at least in part to human activity, and they expressed robust support for climate-related planning activities. These responses sharply differ from the state's approach. However, despite agreement about climate issues, respondents did not identify climate change as a major concern about the future. This contrast suggests an opportunity for new climate-related communication frames to bridge the gap between climate perceptions and planning action. Takeaway for practice These findings inform three recommendations: better connect climate change impacts to everyday concerns, including housing, air quality, and health; emphasize common ground about benefits provided by nature, especially related to health; and use community engagement to refine these frames. I propose that planners can accelerate climate planning by following the lead of other disciplines that emphasize human health impacts of the climate crisis. In addition, planners can strengthen climate planning by extending environmental planning's use of local knowledge from environmental health, urban heat planning, and climate-related land use planning to climate planning more broadly.

Lieberknecht, K

Community-Centered Climate Planning Using Local Knowledge and Communication Frames to Catalyze Climate Planning in Texas

Journal Of The American Planning Association

https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2021.1896974

Climate change resilience not only depends on the physiographic properties, but also the socio-economic status of the people. Considering climate change resilience as a socio-ecological construct, few attempts have been taken to measure resilience across the space, especially at national and community scales. There is a paucity of research that contributes to the spatial understanding of climate change resilience at local level from the system approach. This study aims to provide an assessable means through an analytical geospatial exercise of intrinsic resil-ience of a socio-ecological system in the context of climate change scenario. Due to the unique physiographic and geomorphological characteristics, the central coast of Bangladesh has already been termed as one of the most climate change vulnerable hotspots by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Therefore, it demands a comprehensive assessment in terms of climate change vulnerability, adaptive capacity and resilience. We investigated the intrinsic resilience of this region by adopting Climate Change Resilience of Place (C-CROP) model. This study is the first attempt to the implication of the C-CROP model in real world scenario. Remote Sensing based earth observation, census, and ancillary data were in the centre of the investigation while Prin-cipal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to select and weigh bottom level indicators. 20 adaptive capacity indicators and 17 vulnerability indicators were selected in this regard. Using PCA, 37 indicators are reduced to 5 adaptive capacity and 3 vulnerability principal components which explain 73.81% and 79.17% variance in the data respectively. Quantification and mapping of intrinsic resilience through geospatial approach using Google Earth Engine (GEE) provide useful data that show how intrinsic resilience is spatially distributed in the most vulnerable hotspot in the climate change context. The findings of the study can contribute to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction programs to sustainably allocate limited resources and set priority interventions in order to build vulnerable communities resilient in changing climatic scenario.

Mahmood, R; Zhang, L; Li, GQ; Roy, NR; Rawnaq, N; Yan, M; Dong, YQ; Chen, BW

Geospatial assessment of intrinsic resilience to the climate change for the central coast of Bangladesh

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100521

Despite annual climate variability threats, traditional farming in semi-arid Zimbabwe remains entrenched in unproductive, rain-fed agricultural practices. Adaptation strategies by farmers are seemingly failing to mitigate climate impacts, as evidenced by annual crop and livestock losses. Matabeleland South Province was a thriving livestock and small grain-producing province in the 1970s. Today, the province relies heavily on humanitarian assistance from government and humanitarian agencies. Through literature review, observations and focus group discussions with 129 farmers, the qualitative study established the perceptions of farmers around climate variability impacts in the past 20 years in Mangwe, Matobo and Cwanda districts in Zimbabwe. The study (1) analysed changes in climate and weather patterns in the past 20 years; (2) analysed climate impacts on traditional farming systems in the past 20 years in Cwanda, Mangwe and Matobo districts in Zimbabwe; and (3) established farmers' perceptions, experiences and their climate adaptive strategies. The findings showed that the farmers experienced annual heat waves, protracted droughts, chaotic rain seasons, frost and floods, which led to environmental degradation. Traditional farming systems or practices have been abandoned in favour of buying and selling and gold panning, among other alternative livelihood options, because of climate-related threats and misconceptions around the subject of climate change. Farmers fail to access timely and comprehensive weather forecasts, resulting in annual crop and livestock losses, as decision-making is compromised. Given that the smallholder farming system sustains the bulk of the population in Matabeleland South Province in Zimbabwe, climate education and capital investment is needed to change traditional farmer perceptions about climate change impacts on the farming practices. Increased climate awareness initiatives, establishment of village-based weather stations and the marrying of traditional farming climate knowledge to modern practices are highly recommended to enhance resilience to climate.

Ndlovu, E; Prinsloo, B; Le Roux, T

Impact of climate change and variability on traditional farming systems: Farmers' perceptions from south-west.semi-arid Zimbabwe

Jamba-Journal Of Disaster Risk Studies

https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v12i1.742

Climate Change (CC) is universally recognized as a major global threat due to its nature of impacts. Island nations are known to be the most vulnerable to CC impacts where many countries have initiated mitigation and adaptation actions through sector-based policy measures. Singapore and Sri Lanka are two Asian island nations with CC induced threats. Two countries are different in terms of economic development, but similar developing countries in the CC agenda. In this context, both the countries have initiated mitigation and adaptation actions through policy measures. This study compares the key climate driven performance indicators with historical data to evaluate the performance of climate change policy of each country. Generally, policy evaluation has been conducted by adopting scientific and non-scientific tools, but it is seldom see that the relation of climate driven indicators along with CC policy. Also the policy research was mostly based on European case studies and Asian island nations were not easy to find in this context. The comparison of two countries in terms of CC policy is to determine the key vulnerable sectors where intervention is necessary for island nations. Mitigation policies are evaluated in Singapore and Sri Lanka using GHG emission pathways under twelve (12) indicators and adaptation policies are measured under the national expenditure of key sectors of the economy under seven (07) indicators. The analysis further elaborated by comparing both countries with key economic sectors that has positive and negative influence on CC impacts. Finally, the analysis outcome is used for lessons to learn from each other in improving the CC policy of Singapore and Sri Lanka. As every country has a unique set of strategies to minimize contributions to CC impacts, unique features that are common to both countries are chosen as variables for the comparison. Policy recommendations are provided to implement solid action plan for post 2020. The study expects to assist island countries to strengthen the CC policy as a national priority to manage unforeseen impacts posed by CC phenomena. (C) 2019 Penerbit UTM Press. All rights reserved.

Peiris, OV

Climate Change Policy Evaluation and Its Impact on Island Nations: Case Of Singapore And Sri Lanka

International Journal Of Built Environment And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.11113/ijbes.v6.n2.345

Potato (Solanum tuberosum) is an indispensable commodity, mainly cultivated by high-altitude mountain households, that sustains and supports the livelihood of an overwhelming 51% of the Bhutanese population. The popularity of potato cultivation among Bhutanese farmers can be attributed to the crop's adaptability to a wide range of agroclimatic conditions such as a rainfed crop, high productivity, an assured market, and a reliable source of income for the farming families. We hypothesize that the changing climate would make the livelihood associated with potato cultivation in Bhutan more vulnerable. We tested this hypothesis to identify the sources of vulnerability of smallholder farming households using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and LVI-IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) approaches in six potato growing districts of Bhutan: Bumthang, Chukha, Gasa, Mongar, Tashigang, and Wangdue. Primary data were generated through a semi structured sample survey of 240 households on the seven major livelihood components of sociodemographic profiles, livelihood strategies, social networks, health, food, water, natural disasters, and climate variability. The results showed that the LVI (range 0.302 to 0.375) and LVI-IPCC (range -0.005 to 0.030) differed significantly (p < 0.001) across the districts. The districts of Tashigang and Mongar were less vulnerable than the other four districts by the LVI approach, whereas Bumthang was also revealed to be less vulnerable using the LVI-IPCC approach. The degree of vulnerability in a district differed according to their level of exposure and adaptive capacity to the climate change impacts of the potato farming household. The results are expected to serve as empirical evidence for designing a future course of actions to mitigate the negative impacts.

Rai, P; Bajgai, Y; Rabgyal, J; Katwal, TB; Delmond, AR

Empirical Evidence of the Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts: A Case of Potato-Based Mountain Farming Systems in Bhutan

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su14042339

The likely increase in extreme rainfall events (ERE) due to climate change, particularly associated with tropical storms and hurricanes, threatens coastal communities worldwide. A model based on socioeconomic and environmental indicators was used to assess and categorize vulnerability to ERE at the municipal level, in Sinaloa, a coastal state of northwest Mexico. Coastal vulnerability was assessed based on a system of indicators, integrated into five criteria within two higher categories: response capacity (Economic conditions, Social development, and Living standards), and severity (Geographic exposure and Risk intensifiers). From a preliminary set of 25 indicators, three of them were selected by criterion using the Delphi method, and their values were later standardized from 0 (low) to 1 (high) on a vulnerability scale. Both criteria and indicators were weighted following an analytical hierarchical process (AHP), resulting in the main determinants of vulnerability being Geographic exposure (0.43) and Economic conditions (0.34). This first approach to a vulnerability assessment using standardized values showed that Guasave (to the north) and Escuinapa (to the south) are the most vulnerable municipalities, scoring >9.0 (with 15 being the maximum score). In contrast, Culiacan and San Ignacio, both central municipalities, ranked as the least vulnerable (<5.5). A further analysis using the integral vulnerability index (IVI) corroborated Guasave (3.73) and Escuinapa (3.15) as the most vulnerable, discarding latitudinal changes as a possible promotor of vulnerability. Although the coastal population was the main determinant of vulnerability (median = 0.57), other indicators associated with severity as well as response capacity were responsible for the increase in IVI scores. This study highlights the need for an integrated vulnerability analysis to support public policies and the decision-making process to protect coastal communities from environmental climate change.

Montijo-Galindo, A; Ruiz-Luna, A; Lozano, MB; Hernández-Guzmán, R

A Multicriteria Assessment of Vulnerability to Extreme Rainfall Events on the Pacific Coast of Mexico

Coastal Management

https://doi.org/10.1080/08920753.2020.1803572

The sea-level rise (SLR) resulting from climate change and flooding will threaten residents living in low-lying coastal zones in the coming decades. In this regard, evaluating social vulnerability as a significant component of flood risk reduction is necessary. Indicators, in conjunction with multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, have been recently employed to quantify social vulnerability. In the present study, an indicator-based approach was developed to assess social vulnerability to SLR and flooding in Bandar Abbas city coastal district, southern Iran. To build a social vulnerability index (SoVI) indicators were firstly categorized in, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity components. Indicators were then weighted using MCDM methods (i.e., analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy AHP models). Subsequently, an additive weighting model was employed to produce social vulnerability maps at the block level, and under different combined flooding scenarios in 2050 and 2100. Results showed that using the fuzzy AHP does not necessarily change the ranks of indicators and components compared to the AHP model. However, the spatial extents of social vulnerability were entirely different for both models due to differences in indicators weight. It confirms that using the AHP model as a simplified method can be acceptable when determining indicators and components weight is required. Although, in the case of identifying the detailed spatial extents of social vulnerability using the fuzzy AHP might be appropriate. For all scenarios, using the AHP and fuzzy AHP model, most districts were classified as medium and low vulnerable, respectively. Moreover, the impact of SLR resulting from climate change was significantly evident in the eastern and western parts, where more districts were recognized as highly and very highly vulnerable in the worst-case scenario (S4-2100). The results of this study provide valuable comparative information that can be employed by decision-makers in coastal planning and risk reduction at local scales.

Hadipour, V; Vafaie, F; Kerle, N

An indicator-based approach to assess social vulnerability of coastal areas to sea-level rise and flooding: A case study of Bandar Abbas city, Iran

Ocean & Coastal Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.105077

Although rainfall patterns are complex and difficult to predict, climate models suggest precipitation in Texas will occur less frequently and with greater intensity in the future. In combination with rapid population growth and development, extreme rainfall events are likely to lead to flash floods and necessitate swift water rescues. Swift water rescues are used to retrieve person(s) from swift water flowing at a rate of 1 knot or greater. Data were obtained from the Texas Fire Marshal's Office and analyzed to describe spatial and temporal characteristics of rescues. Between 2005 and 2014, 3256 swift water rescues were reported from 136 of 254 (54%) counties. Over half (54.6%, n = 1777) occurred in counties known as Flash Flood Alley, which includes Texas' largest and fastest growing cities. Less than 1.0% (n = 18) were reported from 49 counties designated as completely rural, or with an urban population less than 2500. Increases in swift water rescues were seen between March and September and during major weather events such as tropical storms. Because county-level data was utilized and demographic data was missing in all but 2% (n = 47) of the incidents, our ability to identify populations at risk or target interventions in the future using this data is limited. Despite the frequency of flash flood events and swift water rescues in Texas, knowledge gaps persist that should be addressed through the conduct of interdisciplinary research by epidemiologists and climatologists and by disseminating evidence-based health education and safety programs, particularly in rapidly growing counties that make up Texas' Flash Flood Alley. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Shah, V; Kirsch, KR; Cervantes, D; Zane, DF; Haywood, T; Horney, JA

Flash flood swift water rescues, Texas, 2005-2014

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.06.003

There are numerous challenges to mobilising high quality knowledge in support of climate adaptation. Urgent adaptive action often has to be taken on the basis of imperfect information, with the risk of maladaptive consequences. These issues of knowledge quality can be particularly acute in vulnerable developing countries like Bangladesh, where there can be less capacity for producing and using climate knowledge. This paper argues that climate change adaptation in places like Bangladesh would benefit from a more self-conscious critical review of the knowledge systems mobilised in support of action, and suggests that 'knowledge quality assessment' (KQA) tools can structure this review. It presents a desktop assessment of information used for climate change adaptation projects in Sylhet Division in Bangladesh, steered by the six themes of the 'Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication' KQA tool. The assessment found important differences in approaches to mobilising knowledge, particularly between governmental and non-governmental organisations (NGOs). It demonstrated that problem framing has an impact on project success; projects that adopt a narrow techno-scientific framing can lead to significant adverse side effects. Recognising this some projects are engaging stakeholders in framing adaptation. It found a lack of national policy Guidance on the use of indicators or appraisal of uncertainty, seeing government agencies fall back on their risk-based calculations, and NGOs attempt to identify indicators and uncertainties via community engagement, with mixed success. Moreover, the adaptation knowledge base is relatively disintegrated, despite tentative steps toward its consolidation and appraisal, potentially related to on-going friction impeding vertical communication within government, and horizontal communication between government, NGOs and stakeholders. This all suggests that the Bangladeshi practices at the adaptation science-policy interface can benefit from reflection on KQA criteria; reflection that could concretely be encouraged through revision of the national policy framework. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license

Haque, MM; Bremer, S; Bin Aziz, S; van der Sluijs, JP

A critical assessment of knowledge quality for climate adaptation in Sylhet Division, Bangladesh

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.12.002

On a conceptual and normative level, the debate around transformation in the context of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been rising sharply over the recent years. Yet, whether and how transformation occurs in the messy realities of policy and action, and what separates it from other forms of risk reduction, is far from clear. Jakarta appears to be the perfect example to study these questions. It is amongst the cities with the highest flood risk in the world. Its flood hazard is driven by land subsidence, soil sealing, changes in river discharge, andincreasinglysea level rise. As all of these trends are set to continue, Jakarta's flood hazard is expected to intensify in the future. Designing and implementing large-scale risk reduction and adaption measures therefore has been a priority of risk practitioners and policy-makers at city and national level. Against this background, the paper draws on a document analysis and original empirical household survey data to review and evaluate current adaptation measures and to analyze in how far they describe a path that is transformational from previous risk reduction approaches. The results show that the focus is clearly on engineering solutions, foremost in the Giant Sea Wall project. The project is likely to transform the city's flood hydrology. However, it cements rather than transforms the current risk management paradigm which gravitates around the goal of controlling flood symptoms, rather than addressing their largely anthropogenic root causes. The results also show that the planned measures are heavily contested due to concerns about ecological impacts, social costs, distributional justice, public participation, and long-term effectiveness. On the outlook, the results therefore suggest that the more the flood hazard intensifies in the future, the deeper a societal debate will be needed about the desired pathway in flood risk reduction and overall development planningparticularly with regards to the accepted levels of transformation, such as partial retreat from the most flood-affected areas.

Garschagen, M; Surtiari, GAK; Harb, M

Is Jakarta's New Flood Risk Reduction Strategy Transformational?

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082934

In recent decades, informal settlement upgrading and housing deficit in Latin America has been addressed through a variety of urban programs, usually structured around physical-spatial and social actions with an emphasis on the provision of basic infrastructure and services, improved accessibility and connectivity and new housing, mostly done by conventional means. In general, they fail to incorporate new frameworks that provide solutions with strong environmental roots, such as Nature-based Solutions (NbS), Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) or Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA). This article explores the potentiality of NbS/BGI in contributing to solve structural problems in marginal urban areas, the mindshifts and actor coalitions needed to support this and how it may promote equity and justice. This is analyzed in a particular setting: Villa 20, an informal settlement in the City of Buenos Aires that is undergoing a participatory urban upgrading process with a strong participatory platform made up of multiple spaces and devices for consensual decision-making on re-urbanization aspects. In Villa 20, several interrelated projects and programs are focusing on sustainability. In particular, the Transformative Urban Coalitions (TUC) of the International Climate Initiative (IKI) is connecting decarbonization with urban inequalities and urban justice. The article reflects on some of the initial outcomes of the TUC program that builds upon the ongoing participatory upgrading process. To discuss the links between the use of NbS, mindshifts and transformative urban coalitions we look into the social setting, methods and tools that promote mindset shift. We explore initial mindset changes in government teams; community leaders; and participants of an Urban Lab and the building up of a new transformative actor coalition. With this, we aim to better understand the possibilities and potential implications of implementing NbS in marginalized social contexts, contributing both to closing the knowledge gap and re-thinking future policies and programs.

Hardoy, J; Motta, JM; Kozak, D; Almansi, F; Reverter, T; Costello, M

Exploring the links between the use of NbS, mindshifts and transformative urban coalitions to promote climate resilience within an ongoing reurbanization process. The case of Villa 20, Buenos Aires

Frontiers In Sustainable Cities

https://doi.org/10.3389/frsc.2022.962168

Urban decision-makers in South Africa face growing challenges related to rapidly expanding populations and a changing climate. To help target limited resources, municipalities have begun to conduct climate change vulnerability assessments. Many of these assessments take a holistic approach that combines both physical hazard exposure and the underlying socio-economic conditions that predispose populations to harm (i.e., social vulnerability). Given the increasing use of socio-economic conditions in climate change vulnerability analyses, this paper seeks to explore two key research questions: 1) can the spatial distribution of relative social vulnerability be estimated in six mostly urban South African municipalities, and if so, 2) how sensitive are the results to a range of subjective methodological choices often required when implementing this type of analysis. Here, social vulnerability is estimated using socio-economic and demographic data from the 2001 and 2011 South African censuses. In all six municipalities, social vulnerability varies spatially, driven primarily by differences in income, assets, wealth, employment and education, and secondarily by differences in access to services and demographics. Even though social vulnerability is estimated from a wide array of population characteristics, the spatial distribution is surprising similar to that of the percent of working-age individuals making less than 800 rand per month. Areas with high percentages of previously disadvantaged, extended family, and informal households tend to display relatively higher levels of social vulnerability. In fact, demographics (e.g., race, language, age) are often highly correlated with other characteristics that have direct ties to social vulnerability (e.g., income, employment, education). The spatial patterns of relative social vulnerability are similar in 2001 and 2011. However, there is some evidence social vulnerability is relatively lower in 2011. While the choice of input data and aggregation method can affect the spatial distribution of social vulnerability, the general spatial patterns appear to be fairly robust across a number of subjective choices related to methodological and aggregation approach, spatial resolution, and input data.

Apotsos, A

Mapping relative social vulnerability in six mostly urban municipalities in South Africa

Applied Geography

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.02.012

This paper discusses the effects of long-term environmental change (represented by the abundance or scarcity relative to the long-term average level of crop yield/river flow) and short-term environmental shock (represented by the maximum number of consecutive years below the median crop yield/river flow per decade) on population redistribution in Mexico and Ethiopia. Crop production and water resources, which are affected by climate change and influence human survival and activities, were selected as research variables. Two developing countries, namely, Mexico and Ethiopia, were selected as comparison cases. The results showed that short-term environmental shocks had no correlation with population redistribution. Short-term environmental shocks might fail to influence migration decisions or cause only temporary displacements that cannot be detected by demographic statistics. Among the long-term environmental change factors, only crop yield deviation was found to have a significant positive correlation with population redistribution. Based on two different datasets and two different decades, crop yield deviation is positively correlated with population redistribution; the correlation coefficients between crop yield deviation and population redistribution were 0.134 to 0.162 in Mexico and 0.102 to 0.235 in Ethiopia. When urbanization was considered as the control variable, the correlation coefficient between crop yield deviation and population redistribution in Mexico dropped by half, while it was almost the same in Ethiopia. However, Ethiopia's population redistribution was more clearly influenced by the population itself. Crop yield deviation relative to water flow deviation meant changes in livelihoods. Population redistribution is a possible means of adapting to changes in livelihood. Mexico exhibited high resilience to changes in livelihoods caused by long-term environmental change, especially in its densely populated areas. In contrast, Ethiopia was characterized mainly by high population growth and low population migration. People in some areas of Ethiopia were forced to endure hardship of livelihood deterioration or to stay where they were due to the difficulty of obtaining sufficient resources to afford the cost of migration.

Xia, HB; Adamo, SB; de Sherbinin, A; Jones, B

The Influence of Environmental Change (Crops and Water) on Population Redistribution in Mexico and Ethiopia

Applied Sciences-Basel

https://doi.org/10.3390/app9235219

The use of seasonal forecast has been demonstrated as a good option to reduce the effects of climate variability in sub-Saharan African countries. However, its use, benefits and interests may be different depending on gender. This paper aims at analyzing the gender differential impact of the use of seasonal forecast on the main crop yields (rice, maize, sorghum, millet and groundnut) and farm income in Senegal. We collected data from 1481 farmers (44% women) in four regions of Senegal. We applied the counterfactual outcomes framework of modern evaluation theory to estimate the local average treatment effect (LATE) of the use of the seasonal forecast on crop yield and farm income. The results showed a significant impact of the use of the seasonal forecast (SF) in the main crop yields and the agricultural income for farmers in Senegal. This impact varies according to the sex and the type of the crops. The users (men and women) of the seasonal forecast gained on average 158 kg/ha and 140 kg/ha more yield than the non-users, respectively, for millet and rice crops. The impact of the use of SF is greater for men on millet (202.7 kg/ha vs. 16.7 kg/ha) and rice (321.33 kg/ha vs. -25.3 kg/ha). However, it is greater for women on maize (210 kg/ha vs. -105 kg/ha). Potential users of seasonal forecast had also a positive and significant impact of 41$ per ha on the income. The additional income is more important for men (56$) than women (11$). These findings suggest that the use of seasonal forecast increases the productivity of rural communities and affects men and women differently. The access to and use of SF should therefore be widely promoted among farmers' organizations; women's associations should be particularly targeted.

Diouf, NS; Ouedraogo, M; Ouedraogo, I; Ablouka, G; Zougmoré, R

Using Seasonal Forecast as an Adaptation Strategy: Gender Differential Impact on Yield and Income in Senegal

Atmosphere

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11101127

Understanding the impacts of climate on food systems is vital to identifying the most effective food system interventions to support climate-smart agriculture. The study examines how climate change is affecting food systems and what can be done to mitigate its effects. Two methodological approaches were combined in the study. The first was an Asia-wide regional consultation and forum to explore a range of initiatives that transform food systems among stakeholders working in Myanmar. The second method was an in-depth food systems study employing qualitative methods in Htee Pu Village in the Myanmar Central Dry Zone, a research site of IIRR since 2017. Key informant interviews (KII) and focus group discussions (FGD) were conducted to capture insights and data. Food systems consist of components, drivers, actors, and elements that interact with one another and other systems such as social, health, and transportation. The Myanmar food system is complex. Making it sustainable and transformative requires a mix of different approaches implemented at various scales from local to national. It also requires actions that engage various actors in the system from producers to consumers. The study of the local food system of Htee Pu Village indicates that the village has a rural and traditional food system and that climate change is one of its key food system drivers. Climate change negatively impacted farming and agricultural practices and disrupted the input supply of the local food systems. The role of intermediaries such as traders and consolidators is critical in the supply and distribution of food in the Central Dry Zone. Improved and more connected roads are essential for the supply and distribution of food for the village. The informal market outlets serve as the primary food source or sale points for households. Household diets are inadequate in quantity as the population remains highly dependent on their crops for their diets due to relatively low income. Climate adaptation must be embedded in the local level management to mitigate the effect of climate change in food production in the longer term.

Thant, PS; Espino, A; Soria, G; Myae, C; Rodriguez, E; Barbon, WJ; Gonsalves, J

Myanmar local food systems in a changing climate: Insights from multiple stakeholders

Environmental And Sustainability Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2022.100170

Rice and wheat are the principal calorie sources for over a billion people in South Asia, although each crop is particularly sensitive to the climatic and agronomic management conditions under which they are grown. Season-long heat stress can reduce photosynthesis and accelerate senescence; if extreme heat stress is experienced during flowering, both rice and wheat may also experience decreased pollen viability and stigma deposition, leading to increased grain sterility. Where farmers are unable to implement within-season management adaptations, significant deviations from expected climatic conditions would affect crop growth, yield, and therefore have important implications for food security. The influence of climatic conditions on crop growth have been widely studied in growth chamber, greenhouse, and research station trials, although empirical evidence of the link between climatic variability and yield risk in farmers' fields is comparatively scarce. Using data from 240 farm households, this paper responds to this gap and isolates the effects of agronomic management from climatic variability on rice and wheat yield risks in eight of Pakistan's twelve agroecological zones. Using Just and Pope production functions, we tested for the effects of crop management practices and climatic conditions on yield and yield variability for each crop. Our results highlight important risks to farmers' ability to obtain reliable yield levels for both crops. Despite variability in input use and crop management, we found evidence for the negative effect of both season-long and terminal heat stress, measured as the cumulative number of days during which crop growth occurred above critical thresholds, though wheat was considerably more sensitive than rice. Comparing variation in observed climatic parameters in the year of study to medium-term patterns, rice, and wheat yields were both negatively affected, indicative of production risk and of farmers' limited capacity for within-season adaptation. Our findings suggest the importance of reviewing existing climate change adaptation policies that aim to increase cereal farmers' resilience in Pakistan, and more broadly in South Asia. Potential agronomic and extension strategies are proposed for further investigation.

Arshad, M; Amjath-Babu, TS; Krupnik, TJ; Aravindakshan, S; Abbas, A; Kächele, H; Müller, K

Climate variability and yield risk in South Asia's rice-wheat systems: emerging evidence from Pakistan

Paddy And Water Environment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-016-0544-0

Significance Statement A key factor that determines how users respond to forecast information is the extent to which they trust the information. We propose a model of trust in drought forecast information that captures how users' trust forms and evolves over time and shows how trust influences users' decisions. We find that even if a user is exposed to relatively accurate forecasts, he or she may not use them immediately because a minimum trust level must be developed before forecasts are perceived to be valuable. We also show that encouraging users to rely on poor forecasts can make them worse off, potentially deterring them from using forecasts in the future. Our findings highlight the importance of credible communication of forecast accuracy. Forecast valuation studies play a key role in understanding the determinants of the value of weather and climate forecasts. Such understanding provides opportunities to increase the value that users can obtain from forecasts, which can in turn increase the use of forecasts. One of the most important factors that influences how users process forecast information and incorporate forecasts into their decision-making is trust in forecasts. Despite the evidence from empirical and field-based studies, modeling users' trust in forecasts has not received much attention in the literature and is therefore the focus of our study. We propose a theoretical model of trust in information, built into a forecast valuation framework, to better understand 1) the role of trust in users' processing of drought forecast information and 2) the dynamic process of users' trust formation and evolution. Using a numerical experiment, we show that considering the dynamic nature of trust is critical in more realistic assessment of forecast value. We find that users may not perceive a potentially valuable forecast as such until they trust it enough, implying that exposure to even highly accurate forecasts may not immediately translate into forecast use. Ignoring this dynamic aspect could overestimate the economic gains from forecasts. Furthermore, the model offers hypotheses with regard to targeting strategies that can be tested with empirical and field-based studies and used to guide policy interventions.

Shafiee-Jood, M; Deryugina, T; Cai, XM

Modeling Users' Trust in Drought Forecasts

Weather Climate And Society

https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0081.1

The concept of ecosystem-based adaptation is advocated at international, national, and regional levels. The concept is thought to foster sustainability transitions and is receiving increasing interest from academic and governmental bodies alike. However, there is little theory regarding the pathways for its systematic implementation. It furthermore remains unclear to what degree the concept is already applied in urban planning practice, how it is integrated into existing planning structures and processes, and what drivers exist for further integration. Against this background, this study examines potential ways to sustainably mainstream ecosystem-based adaptation into urban planning. Eight municipalities in Southern Germany were investigated to analyze the processes of mainstreaming ecosystem-based adaptation into current planning practice. Although the mainstreaming entry points for ecosystem-based adaptation were identified to be appreciably different, the results of the study show how mainstreaming has generally led to patterns of change in: (1) on-the-ground measures, (2) organizational structures and assets, (3) formal and informal policies and instruments, (4) external cooperation and networking, and (5) the general working language. In all these areas, ecosystem-based adaptation to heat and flood risk is highly compartmentalized. Furthermore, although scholars have drawn attention to the risk of mainstreaming overload, the results suggest that at the local level, the integration of ecosystem-based adaptation is strongly driven by departments' experience in mainstreaming other cross-cutting issues, namely environmental planning, climate change mitigation, and disaster risk management. Based on the findings, ways to leverage sustainability transitions via mainstreaming are discussed. It is concluded that systematic mainstreaming is a promising avenue for initiating and promoting local transitions and transformative adaptation. The study demonstrates the applicability of the presented mainstreaming framework for assessing and driving the mainstreaming capacity of local governments, thus also addressing the lack of related indicators highlighted in the Fifth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Wamsler, C

Mainstreaming ecosystem-based adaptation: transformation toward sustainability in urban governance and planning

Ecology And Society

https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07489-200230

Natural and manmade urban changes often have negative impacts on social, economic and environmental structure of the cities, such as habitat loss, pollution, loss of common property resources, poverty, displacement of communities and unemployment. Nowadays, the impacts of urban changes have started to be seen far beyond the borders of the cities. Within this context, many scholars and decision makers interested in urban planning have started to focus on the term of adaptability to cope with urban changes that create external stresses, dangers and risks (Yamu et al, 2015; Raco et al., 2012; Rauws et al, 2016; Wendt, 2015; Jabareen, 2013; De Roo, 2015; Ahern, 2011). In this context, adaptive planning, which is defined as creating conditions for development which support a city's capacity to respond to changing circumstances, is increasingly acknowledged in the planning literature (Rauws et al., 2016: 1). At national and international platforms, in order to cope with the current or unexpected impacts of urban changes such as environmental crisis linked to climate change, natural disasters and international migration flow due to the war, policies were developed in terms of adaptive planning and the adaptative capacity of the cities was aimed to be increased. In adaptive planning process different approaches are used based on the type of urban changes and to provide urban adaptation they focused on various key elements such as modelling, monitoring, simulation, learning. In this study, how the subject of urban adaptation was approached in Turkey was explained and the projects based on adaptive planning were evaluated with the aim of providing a first impression to this field. With this aim 48 projects, which are determined through searching the urban adaptive plans in Turkey, were examined in an analytical framework. Adaptation subjects, related actors and their collaboration and funding programs of the projects were examined and their adaptive planning approaches, processes and key elements that they focused on were demonstrated.

Keller, II; Erol, NK

Adaptive Planning: Examining Adaptation Based Urban Policies and Practices in Turkey

Planlama-Planning

https://doi.org/10.14744/planlama.2020.26023

As observed and predicted losses and damages from climate change impacts grow increasingly severe, calls for transformation as a response to long-term climate change have become more frequent. Transformational approaches have also been integrated into the global climate change regime under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as part of the workplan of the Executive Committee guiding the implementation of the Warsaw international mechanism, the oversight body on loss and damage. However, there has as yet been no attempt to define what is meant by transformation in the context of loss and damage. This paper attempts to clarify the burgeoning academic and policy literature by positing three types of transformation as a response to loss and damage: transformation as adaptation (an intensification of dominant socio-ecological relationships), transformation as extension (when the limits of established adaptive capacity are reached) and transformation as liberation (adopting development pathways that address the root causes of vulnerability). Transformation as liberation is proposed as a deeper change to social-technological systems to avoid and minimize loss and damage in ways that enhance social justice and sustainability. To provide the kind of information decision makers need to plan and implement transformation as liberation, more research is needed on how to plan in a way that ensures the most equitable outcomes. Key policy insights Loss and Damage is an opportunity to scrutinize and address the root causes of vulnerability. Framing climate change as a development crisis will allow opportunities for transformation as liberation to emerge. Transformation as liberation to address the root causes of vulnerability requires meaningful engagement with processes at all levels. A new model of global governance is needed in which global equity is a moral imperative. The transition to transformation as liberation must be just, which requires leadership, inclusive and participatory decision making and building alliances. The global Loss and Damage agenda could open up space for a broader discussion on how transformation as liberation can be facilitated to address inequalities both between and within countries.

Roberts, E; Pelling, M

Loss and damage: an opportunity for transformation?

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1680336

This article analyses the interactions between agricultural policy measures in the EU and the factors affecting GHG emissions from agriculture on the one hand, and the adaptation of agriculture to climate change on the other. To this end, the article uses Slovenia as a case study, assessing the extent to which Slovenian agricultural policy is responding to the challenges of climate change. All agricultural policy measures related to the 2007-2013 programming period were analysed according to a new methodological approach that is based on a qualitative (expert evaluation) and a quantitative (budgetary transfers validation) assessment. A panel of experts reached consensus on the key factors through which individual measures affect climate change, in which direction and how significantly. Data on budgetary funds for each measure were used as weights to assess their relative importance. The results show that there are not many measures in (Slovenian) agricultural policy that are directly aimed at reducing GHG emissions from agriculture or at adaptation to climate change. Nevertheless, most affect climate change, and their impact is far from negligible. Current measures have both positive and negative impacts, but overall the positive impacts prevail. Measures that involve many beneficiaries and more budgetary funds had the strongest impact on aggregate assessments. In light of climate change, agricultural policy should pay more attention to measures that are aimed at raising the efficiency of animal production, as it is the principal source of GHG emissions from agriculture.Policy relevanceAgricultural policy must respond to climate challenges and climate change impact assessment must be included in the process of forming European agricultural policy. Agricultural policy measures that contribute to the reduction of emissions and adaptation, whilst acting in synergy with other environmental, economic and social goals, should be promoted. The approach used in this study combines qualitative and quantitative data, yielding an objective assessment of the climate impact of agricultural policy measures and providing policy makers with a tool for either ex ante or ex post evaluations of climate-relevant policy measures.

Erjavec, E; Volk, T; Rednak, M; Rac, I; Zagorc, B; Moljk, B; Zgajnar, J

Interactions between European agricultural policy and climate change: a Slovenian case study

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1222259

One of the most difficult problem facing those responsible for managing World Heritage Sites (WHS) is climate change, as it poses continuous new challenges to the conservation of cultural heritage. Moreover, as our climate continues to change our cultural heritage will potentially be exposed to diverse pressures and potentially to risks not previously experienced. Thus, management practices will need to be tailored in order to include climate change impacts. For climate change impacts to be incorporated into preservation frameworks and management practices from government policy level down to the practice in the field, data, information and assessment methods need to be available at a scale relevant to decisionmakers. This paper presents an integrated vulnerability assessment methodology and applies it to three UNESCO cultural WHS in Europe. Through this process, semi-structured interviews were conducted with academics and experts in the management and conservation of cultural heritage, as well as with the managers and coordinators of WHS. The incorporation of bottom-up knowledge in the assessment process allowed for an understanding of the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the sites, two components of vulnerability that are not given sufficient attention and ignored, respectively, in typical top-down climate change impact assessments. In particular, the interviews elucidated the determinants that enable or constrain the capacity to adapt, i.e., resources, including technical, economic and human; information and awareness; management capacity; learning capacity; leadership; communication and collaboration; and governance; with the lack of resources most commonly mentioned as the determinant impeding adaptation. 'Information and awareness' and 'management capacity' are determinants that were not previously identified in the field of cultural heritage. The former stresses the need to disseminate the results of scientific research for their incorporation in the management of heritage sites. Vulnerability assessments such as those performed in this paper can be used to target interventions to protect and strengthen the resilience of cultural heritage to climate change impacts. (C) 2019 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Sesana, E; Gagnon, AS; Bonazza, A; Hughes, JJ

An integrated approach for assessing the vulnerability of World Heritage Sites to climate change impacts

Journal Of Cultural Heritage

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.culher.2019.06.013

Amongst all natural disasters, floods have the greatest economic and social impacts worldwide, and their frequency is expected to increase due to climate change. Therefore, improved flood risk assessment is important for implementing flood mitigation measures in urban areas. The increasing need for quantifying the impacts of flooding have resulted in the development of methods for flood risk assessment. The aim of this study was to quantify flood risk under climate change scenarios in the Rockcliffe area within the Humber River watershed in Toronto, Canada, by using the Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) method. CAPRA is a platform for stochastic disaster risk assessment that allows for the characterization of uncertainty in the underlying numerical models. The risk was obtained by integrating the (i) flood hazard, which considered future rainfall based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for three time periods (short-term: 2020-2049, medium-term: 2040-2069, and long-term: 2070-2099); (ii) exposed assets within a flood-prone region; (iii) vulnerability functions, which quantified the damage to an asset at different hazard levels. The results revealed that rainfall intensities are likely to increase during the 21st century in the study area, leading to an increase in flood hazards, higher economic costs, and social impacts for the majority of the scenarios. The highest impacts were found for the climate scenario RCP 8.5 for the long-term period and the lowest for RCP 4.5 for the short-term period. The results from this modeling approach can be used for planning purposes in a floodplain management study. The modeling approach identifies critical areas that need to be protected to mitigate future flood risks. Higher resolution climate change and field data are needed to obtain detailed results required for a final design that will mitigate these risks.

Rincón, D; Velandia, JF; Tsanis, I; Khan, UT

Stochastic Flood Risk Assessment under Climate Change Scenarios for Toronto, Canada Using CAPRA

Water

https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020227

The world's drylands will face not only increasing temperatures with climate change but more importantly also disruptions to their hydrological cycles resulting in less and more erratic rainfall that will exacerbate the already critical state of water scarcity and conflicts over water allocation. The rural poor in dry areas will suffer the most from these changes and will require a range of coping strategies to help them adapt to changing climates. Strategies will include changing of cropping systems and patterns, switching from cereal-based systems to cereal-legumes and diversifying production systems into higher value and greater water use efficient options. The latter include judicious use of water using supplementary irrigation systems, more efficient irrigation practices and the adaptation and adoption of existing and new water harvesting technologies. Scope for the application of conservation agriculture in dry areas is thought to be limited by low biomass production but current evidence suggests that even small amounts of residue retention can significantly decrease soil erosion losses. These options will be supplemented by the development of more drought and heat tolerant germplasm using traditional and participatory plant breeding methodologies and better predictions of extreme climatic events. The majority of drylands are occupied by rangelands with some 828 Mha in West Asia and North Africa alone. These vast areas provide environmental services such as the regulation of water quantity and quality. biodiversity and carbon sequestration. Rangelands have been neglected in the past partly because of problems of ownership, access and governmental policies that discourage investments in rangelands. The idea of payment for environmental services in rangelands is in its infancy but is discussed here as a potential option for better use and management of rangelands and as a safety net to reduce the vulnerability of rangeland inhabitants to climate change. In addition to the promising technological options to reduce vulnerability to climate change a brief discussion is included on the institutional and policy options needed to create a better enabling environment for increased adaptation and ecosystem resilience. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thomas, RJ

Opportunities to reduce the vulnerability of dryland farmers in Central and West Asia and North Africa to climate change

Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.011

This paper examines the barriers and adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers in the Northern Development Authority (NDR) zone of Ghana to climate change. The study also investigates the effect of the socio-economic and institutional factors on the on-farm adaptation strategies to climate change of smallholder farmers. The study employs descriptive statistics to analyse the barriers and adaptation techniques of a sample of 125 smallholder farmers in the NDR zone of Ghana. The binary logit model was employed to analyse the effect of the socio-economic and institutional factors on the on-farm adaptation strategies to climate change. The results show that households face considerable availability and liquidity constraints in adapting to climate change. The lack of capacity building program is the major availability constraint, while the lack of funds to purchase fertiliser is the major liquidity constraint. Most farmers do not apply any adaptation technique, while the few farmers who adapt to the changing climate frequently use soil and water conservation and grow different crop varieties and diversification of the crop produced. A number of socio-economic characteristics and institutional factors (particularly governmental extension services), and the longitudinal temperature and rainfall significantly affect the on-farm adaptation strategies of households. Though smallholder farmers in the NDR zone of Ghana apply a multiplicity of on-farm and non-farm adaptation strategies, this research is limited to on-farm adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers. The study recommends that policies aimed at helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change should greatly emphasise on capacity-building programs. Also, investment in extension services to support rural farm households is highly recommended due to the great impact it has on adapting to climate change. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by first using the farm-level survey data from wider geographical areas in the NDR zone of Ghana to analyse the climate change adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers. This paper also focusses on only the on-farm climate change adaptation strategies of households in the NDR zone of Ghana.

Asravor, RK

On-farm adaptation strategies to climate change: the case of smallholder farmers in the Northern Development Authority Zone of Ghana

Environment Development And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01650-3

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has been devastating for international tourism, adversely affecting destinations, organizations, and local communities. In particular, the crisis highlights the need for local communities reliant on rural tourism to enhance their resilience to the risks simultaneously generated by the pandemic and accelerating impacts of climate change. This is important as the effects of these hazards are intertwined and cannot be treated in isolation. We explore community responses and resilience through case study Quebrada Verde, Peru, a small rural community in the Andes Mountains. Specifically, we report on a qualitative examination involving in-depth semi-structured interviews and focus groups with key informants from the community, supplemented by relevant documentary analysis. Drawing on community resilience and social networks perspectives, we find that the community's preparedness to both threats is unbalanced. On one hand, the community eco-tourism system has developed sufficient tools to adapt to the temporary effects of COVID-19 derived from the community's self-organization skills and topophilia. Specifically, the community possesses a cohesive social structure, it has a solid cultural identity rooted in its customs and traditions, and maintains a social humour that enables it to see the positive aspects of adversity. On the other hand, the analysis of the measures towards strengthening the resilience to climate change delivers mixed results. In particular, the relationship that the community has built with other local organizations to successfully prevent and react to climate change is weak. Therefore, stronger efforts towards bridging this gap must be implemented in order to sustain the wider social network of such organizations, of which the community is a part. This would enable further development and implementation of appropriate risk management strategies to counteract climate change, enhancing the community's resilience of its eco-tourism system to this emergent threat. Importantly, this finding might be relevant to other local communities seeking to improve their resilience to COVID-19 and climate change.

Gabriel-Campos, E; Werner-Masters, K; Cordova-Buiza, F; Paucar-Caceres, A

Community eco-tourism in rural Peru: Resilience and adaptive capacities to the Covid-19 pandemic and climate change

Journal Of Hospitality And Tourism Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2021.07.016

Traditional agricultural practices, including paddy farming on terraced uplands, have garnered renewed interest in recent years in response to increasing concerns on environmental sustainability and the expected effects of climate change on global food security. However, little systematic research on the potential vulnerabilities of these traditional agroecosystems to future climatic change has been conducted as most are located in remote areas with limited data availability. This paper is a case study on the Ifugao Rice Terraces of the Philippines, a centuries-old farming system whose success is dependent on the year-round allocation of water resources following an intricate agricultural cycle. We developed a site-specific hydrological model coupling the similar hydrologic element response (SHER) model for surface and vadose zone processes and the modular three-dimensional groundwater flow (MODFLOW) model for saturated groundwater movement to evaluate baseline conditions in a selected first-order catchment within the Kiangan terrace cluster. Output from the SHER-MODFLOW model showed good agreement with in situ observations of stream discharge and hydraulic head measured in 2014-2016. To elucidate the impacts of climate change, we downscaled future projections from three global climate models, MRI-CGCM3, GFDL-CM3, and UKMO-HadGEM3, under greenhouse gas concentration pathways RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5. We used these future climate projections with the calibrated SHER-MODFLOW model to evaluate the combined surface water and groundwater resources in 2041-2050 and 2091-2100. Results indicated trends of increasing temperature for all months, decreasing rainfall and increased risks of water deficits for future dry seasons, and increasing rainfall and increased risks of excess runoff for future wet seasons. These trends will be more pronounced at the end of the century. These results are important in evaluating the sustainability of this traditional agricultural system under climate change, and in designing appropriate local adaptation measures.

Soriano, MA; Herath, S

Climate change and traditional upland paddy farming: a Philippine case study

Paddy And Water Environment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-019-00784-5

PurposeThis study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of crop diversification in increasing the income of farm households. In addition, this study introduces the impact of natural disasters in the analysis to determine how diversification helps mitigate the negative effect of disasters on farm income. More importantly, the study also analyses the effect of diversification on farm income by farm class to see where the benefits of diversification are concentrated. Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a linear model, in which agricultural income is expressed as a function of diversification, natural disasters and several control variables. Diversification is measured using the Simpson index of diversification. The linear model is enhanced with the inclusion of an interaction term of natural disasters with the diversification index to shed light on the role of diversification in negating their harmful effect on agricultural income. Finally, to analyze the impact of institutional variables on farm income, the interactions of diversification with irrigation, insurance, usage of technical information and formal training are incorporated in the linear model. FindingsThe study highlights the importance of demographic, farm and institutional variables in raising farm income. The study suggests that an increase in education level, irrigation, usage of technical information and possession of Kisan Credit Card (KCC) have a positive impact on agricultural income. The study reveals that crop diversification has a positive impact on farm income and the benefits of diversification are conditioned by institutional factors. Thus, there is a need for policy intervention to ensure increased irrigation facilities along with extension services to provide information to the farm households. It has been found that small farmers gain more from crop diversification than larger farmers. Furthermore, the results show that natural disasters negatively impact farm income, but their impact can be mitigated by higher levels of diversification. Originality/valueThe results of the study are based on the recent unit-level data from the 77th Round of the National Sample Survey Office survey. The survey covers a large number of farm households and reports information for the year 2018-2019.

Sehgal, V

Crop diversity and farm income: evidence from a large-scale national survey

Indian Growth And Development Review

https://doi.org/10.1108/IGDR-01-2022-0008

Resilience is widely seen as an important attribute of coastal systems and, as a concept, is increasingly prominent in policy documents. However, there are conflicting ideas on what constitutes resilience and its operationalisation as an overarching principle of coastal management remains limited. In this paper, we show how resilience to coastal flood and erosion hazard could be measured and applied within policy processes, using England as a case study. We define resilience pragmatically, integrating what is presently a disparate set of policy objectives for coastal areas. Our definition uses the concepts of resistance, recovery and adaptation, to consider how the economic, social and environmental dimensions of coastal systems respond to change. We develop a set of composite indicators for each dimension, grounded empirically with reference to national geospatial datasets. A prototype Coastal Resilience Model (CRM) has been developed, which combines the dimensions and generates a quantitative resilience index. We apply it to England's coastal hazard zone, capturing a range of different stakeholder perspectives using relative indicator weightings. The illustrative results demonstrate the practicality of formalising and quantifying resilience. To re-focus national policy around the stated desire of enhancing resilience to coastal flooding and erosion would require firm commitment from government to monitor progress towards resilience, requiring extension of the present risk-based approach, and a consensus methodology in which multiple (and sometimes conflicting) stakeholder values are explicitly considered. Such a transition may also challenge existing governance arrangements at national and local levels, requiring incentives for coastal managers to engage with and apply this new approach, more departmental integration and inter-agency cooperation. The proposed Coastal Resilience Model, with the tools to support planning and measure progress, has the potential to help enable this transition. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Townend, BIH; French, JR; Nicholls, RJ; Brown, S; Carpenter, S; Haigh, ID; Hill, CT; Lazarus, E; Penning-Rowsell, EC; Thompson, CEL; Tompkins, EL

Operationalising coastal resilience to flood and erosion hazard: A demonstration for England

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146880

The concept and practice of transoceanic voyaging underpin contemporary Pacific identities as precursor, metaphor, lived reality and ideal. As a primary symbol for connectivity across a fluid continent, the vaka moana (voyaging canoe) has long been part of cultural expression in many Pacific Island communities, and in recent decades it has become the inspiration for a new wave of Pacific cultural production. This article incorporates three essays that stage a critical conversation about how theatre and performance studies paradigms and indigenous voyaging phenomena may be mutually illuminating. In Ka Moana Klipolipo: Reconnecting with the depths of the ocean through performance', Tammy Hailipua Baker offers a close look at her production of Kamapuaa in order to show how the circulation of contemporary Hawaiian performances based on ancient stories and history offers a potent means of connecting across ocean spaces and maintaining culture. Sharon Mazer's essay From Waka to Haka: Performative voyaging in the twenty-first century' charts the evocation of the waka (canoe) in various Maori cultural performances, exploring how the legacy of sea journeying both enriches and complicates more grounded notions of indigeneity. In Symbolic Vaka, Sustainable Futures: Climate-induced migration and oceanic performance', Diana Looser considers some of the broader questions that arise from the intersection of voyaging and artistic performance, focusing in particular on the role that theatre may play in confronting the effects of climate change on Pacific peoples. Together we ask: How can the performance of voyaging tell us more about cultural practices and theatre-making strategies in Oceania and, in turn, how can performative expression and theatrical representation shed more detailed light on the possibilities, challenges and contradictions of the voyaging revival and its implications for contemporary Pacific identities?

Baker, TH; Mazer, S; Looser, D

'The Vessel Will Embrace Us': Contemporary Pacific voyaging in Oceanic theatre

Performance Research

https://doi.org/10.1080/13528165.2016.1162518

Resilience is a new path to express and enhance urban sustainability. Cities suffer from natural shocks and human-made disturbances due to rapid urbanization and global climate change. The construction of an urban resilient developmental environment is restricted by these factors. Strengthening the comprehensive evaluation of resilience is conducive to identifying high-risk areas in cities, guiding regional risk prevention, and providing a scientific basis for differentiated strategies for urban resilience governance. For this study, taking Shenyang city as a case study, the resilience index system was constructed as an ECP (exposure, connectedness, and potential) framework, and the adaptive cycle model was introduced into the resilience assessment framework. This model not only comprehensively considers the relationship between exposure and potential but also helps to focus on the temporal and spatial dynamics of urban resilience. The results show that the exposed indicators have experienced three spatial evolution stages, including single-center circle expansion, multicenter clustering, and multicenter expansion. The potential index increased radially from the downtown area to the outer suburbs, and the low-value area presented a multicenter pattern. The spatial agglomeration of connectivity indicators gradually weakened. The results reflect the fact that the resilience level of the downtown area has been improved and the resilience of the outer expansion area has declined due to urban construction. The multicenter cluster pattern is conducive to the balance of resilience levels. In terms of the adaptive cycle phases of urban resilience, the first ring has gone through three phases: exploitation (r), conservation (K), and release (omega). The second and third rings have gradually shifted from the exploitation (r) phase to the conservation (K) phase. The fourth ring has entered the exploitation (r) phase from the reorganization (alpha) phase. The fifth ring and its surrounding areas are in the reorganization (alpha) phase. The results provide specific spatial guidance for implementing resilient urban planning and realizing sustainable urban development.

Feng, XH; Xiu, CL; Li, JX; Zhong, YX

Measuring the Evolution of Urban Resilience Based on the Exposure-Connectedness-Potential (ECP) Approach: A Case Study of Shenyang City, China

Land

https://doi.org/10.3390/land10121305

This paper discusses the application of qualitative scenarios to understand community vulnerability and adaptation responses, based on a case study in the Slave River Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Three qualitative, graphic scenarios of possible alternative futures were developed, focusing on two main drivers: climate change and resource development. These were used as a focal point for discussions with a cross-section of residents from the community during focus groups, interviews and a community workshop. Significant overlap among the areas of perceived vulnerability is evident among scenarios, particularly in relation to traditional land use. However, each scenario also offers insights about specific challenges facing community members. Climate change was perceived to engender mostly negative livelihood impacts, whereas resource development was expected to trigger a mix of positive and negative impacts, both of which may be more dramatic than in the climate change only scenario. The scenarios were also used to identify adaptation options specific to individual drivers of change, as well as more universally applicable options. Identified adaptation options were generally aligned with five sectors-environment and natural resources, economy, community management and development, infrastructure and services, and information and training-which effectively offer a first step towards prioritization of no regrets measures. From an empirical perspective, while the scenarios highlighted the need for bottom-up measures, they also elucidated discussion about local agency in adaptation and enabled the examination of multi-dimensional impacts on different community sub-groups. An incongruity emerged between the suite of technically oriented adaptation options and more socially and behaviourally oriented barriers to implementation. Methodologically, the qualitative scenarios were flexible, socially inclusive and consistent with the Indigenous worldview; allowed the incorporation of different knowledge systems; addressed future community vulnerability and adaptation; and led to the identification of socially feasible and bottom-up adaptation outcomes. Despite some caveats regarding resource requirements for participatory scenario development, qualitative scenarios offer a versatile tool to address a range of vulnerability and adaptation issues in the context of other Indigenous communities.

Wesche, SD; Armitage, DR

Using qualitative scenarios to understand regional environmental change in the Canadian North

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0537-0

The frequent occurrence of urban flooding in recent years has resulted in significant damage to ground-level infrastructure and poses a substantial threat to the metro system. As the central city's core transportation network for public transit, this threat can have unpredictable consequences on travel convenience and public safety. Therefore, assessing the risk of urban flooding in the metro system is of utmost importance. This study is the first of its kind to employ comprehensive natural disaster risk assessment theory, establishing an assessment database with 22 indicators. We propose a GIS-based method combined with the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and an improved entropy weight method to comprehensively evaluate the urban flood risk in Changchun City's metro systems in China. This study includes a total of nine metro lines, including those that are currently operational as well as those that are in the planning and construction phases, situated in six urban areas of Changchun City. In this study, we utilize the regional risk level within the 500 m buffer zone of the metro lines to represent the flood risk of the metro system. The proposed method assesses the flood risk of Changchun's rail transit system. The results reveal that over 30% of Changchun's metro lines are located in high-risk flood areas, mainly concentrated in the densely populated and economically prosperous western part of the central city. To validate the risk assessment, we vectorized the inundation points and overlaid them with the regional flood risk assessment results, achieving a model accuracy of over 90%. As no large-scale flood events have occurred in the Changchun rail transit system, we employed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to verify the accuracy of the flood risk assessment model, resulting in an accuracy rate of 91%. These findings indicate that the present study is highly reliable and can provide decision makers with a scientific basis for mitigating future flood disasters.

Liu, GX; Zhang, YC; Zhang, JQ; Lang, QL; Chen, YA; Wan, ZY; Liu, HA

Geographic-Information-System-Based Risk Assessment of Flooding in Changchun Urban Rail Transit System

Remote Sensing

https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15143533

The mountain chain of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas in southern Mexico is globally significant for its biodiversity and is one of the most important coffee production areas of Mexico. It provides water for several municipalities and its biosphere reserves are important tourist attractions. Much of the forest cover outside the core protected areas is in fact coffee grown under traditional forest shade. Unless this (agro)forest cover can be sustained, the biodiversity of the Sierra Madre and the environmental services it provides are at risk. We analyzed the threats to livelihoods and environment from climate change through crop suitability modeling based on downscaled climate scenarios for the period 2040 to 2069 (referred to as 2050s) and developed adaptation options through an expert workshop. Significant areas of forest and occasionally coffee are destroyed every year by wildfires, and this problem is bound to increase in a hotter and drier future climate. Widespread landslides and inundations, including on coffee farms, have recently been caused by hurricanes whose intensity is predicted to increase. A hotter climate with more irregular rainfall will be less favorable to the production of quality coffee and lower profitability may compel farmers to abandon shade coffee and expand other land uses of less biodiversity value, probably at the expense of forest. A comprehensive strategy to sustain the biodiversity, ecosystem services and livelihoods of the Sierra Madre in the face of climate change should include the promotion of biodiversity friendly coffee growing and processing practices including complex shade which can offer some hurricane protection and product diversification; payments for forest conservation and restoration from existing government programs complemented by private initiatives; diversification of income sources to mitigate risks associated with unstable environmental conditions and coffee markets; integrated fire management; development of markets that reward sustainable land use practices and forest conservation; crop insurance programs that are accessible to smallholders; and the strengthening of local capacity for adaptive resource management.

Schroth, G; Laderach, P; Dempewolf, J; Philpott, S; Haggar, J; Eakin, H; Castillejos, T; Moreno, JG; Pinto, LS; Hernandez, R; Eitzinger, A; Ramirez-Villegas, J

Towards a climate change adaptation strategy for coffee communities and ecosystems in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico

Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-009-9186-5

Questions of equity, justice, and fairness in the international agricultural adaptation regime have emerged in recent years, prompting interest in regime power dynamics. Here, a three-dimensional conceptual framework of 'power as domination' is applied to the UNFCCC adaptation regime. We argue that this 'power-over' framing is an important lens through which to view adaptation, a field dominated by 'power-to', capacity-based constructs. The framework distinguishes between power-over manifesting through decision-making, agenda setting and preference shaping. Through a literature review we demonstrate that first and second dimension behavioral views of power-over fail to account for the subtle ways in which the interests and preferences of smallholder farmers are unknowingly shaped and restricted within the regime. Potential sources of third dimension preference shaping power are explored in a survey with high-level decision makers involved in National Adaptation Plans (NAP) development in seven countries. The results suggest that several inter-related features of the international agriculture adaptation regime collectively contribute to the shaping of interests and preferences of smallholders: prevailing discourses of uncertainty and the perceived limited capacity of smallholders; the resulting privileged status of 'expert' decision makers; the predominance of neoliberal development rationalities; and systemic biases resulting from the nation state as the principle unit of UNFCCC negotiation. These forces lie beyond the explanatory scope of first and second dimensions of power-over and help to explain why stakeholder engagement in adaptation decision making remains superficial in nature and why adaptation responses in agriculture can be considered 'common and non-differentiated'. We argue for increased awareness of third dimension manifestations and impacts of power in adaptation literature to facilitate the improved participation of marginalized stakeholders in UNFCCC and domestic adaptation decision making forums, to increase the diversity of adaptation options available to smallholders, and ultimately, to improve the attribution of responsibility for adaptation outcomes. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sova, C; Vervoort, J; Thornton, T; Helfgott, A; Matthews, D; Chaudhury, A

Exploring farmer preference shaping in international agricultural climate change adaptation regimes

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.08.008

In the 20st century, climate change caused an increase in temperature that accelerated the rate of sea level. Sea level rise and land subsidence threaten densely populated coastal areas as well as lowlands because they cause tidal flooding. Tidal floods occur every year due to an increase in sea level rise and land subsidence. The lack of information on this phenomenon causes delays in disaster mitigation, leading to serious problems. This study was conducted to predict the area of tidal flood inundation on land use in 2020 to 2035. This research was performed in Pekalongan Regency, as one of the areas experiencing large land subsidence and sea level rise. The research data to be used were tides and the value of soil subsidence. as well as sea level rise. Digital Terrain Model (DTM) was obtained through a topographic survey. Modeling was used for DTM reconstruction based on land subsidence and sea level rise every year. The sea level rise value uses the satellite altimetry data from 1993-2018. A field survey was conducted to validate the inundation model that has been created. Land subsidence was processed using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image data with Single Band Algorithm (SBA) differential interferoineuy. This study proved that tidal flooding has increased every year where in 2020 it was 783.99 hectares, but with the embankment there was a reduction in inundation area of 1.68 hectares. The predicted area of tidal flood inundation in 2025, 2030 and 2035 without the embankment is 3388.98 hectares, 6523.19 hectares, 7578.94 hectares, while with the embankment in 2035 is 1686.62 hectares. The research results showed that the use of embankments is a solution for coastal mitigation as well as regional planning.

Zainuri, M; Helmi, M; Novita, MGA; Kusumaningrum, HP; Koch, M

Improved Performance of Geospatial Model to Access the Tidal Flood Impact on Land Use by Evaluating Sea Level Rise and Land Subsidence Parameters

Journal Of Ecological Engineering

https://doi.org/10.12911/22998993/144785

The impact of the recent (2013) ravaging flood has caused large-scale devastation in Bihar, India The destruction has impacted the whole community but the pre-existing climate of discrimination against women in society has intersected with the devastation caused by flooding and increased its impact on women in many ways. The pre-existing misogyny, gender role learning and accordingly the formation of gender identity that has accustomed women to accept discrimination without an iota of objection, increases in the relief and rehabilitation period after a disaster. The objectives of the study are (1) to find out the problems faced by women in aftermath of a flood or other disaster, (2) to explore whether women's vulnerability differs in terms of age and caste, and (3) to access the impact of flooding on income, on women-headed households, and on education, health, and violence against women. The study was carried out by employing the focus group discussion method in the Purnia and Katihar districts of Bihar, India. The results show that women lack information about flood warnings and have less access to relief material. In addition, access to income sources is also low, mobility is restricted, and caretaking responsibility creates an additional burden on women, a burden which differs in terms of age and caste. Women's health also tends to deteriorate and they are dishonored both within and outside the home. The relief providing agencies are unaware of the manifold problems women face after a flood; hence they do not feel the necessity to provide any special assistance during the relief or rehabilitation periods. It is hoped that the findings of this study will increase aid agencies' awareness of these problems. In addition, this study will conclude by making some specific recommendations for actions that relief agencies can take to focus on the special needs and problems of women and ensure their participation in the rehabilitation period.

Madhuri

The Impact of Flooding in Bihar, India on Women: A Qualitative Study

Asian Women

Many cities worldwide seek to understand local policy priorities among their general populations. This study explores how differences in local conditions and among citizens within and across Mumbai, India shape local infrastructure (e.g. energy, water, transport) and environmental (e.g. managing pollution, climate-related extreme weather events) policy priorities for change that may or may not be aligned with local government action or global environmental sustainability concerns such as low-carbon development. In this rapidly urbanizing city, multiple issues compete for prominence, ranging from improved management of pollution and extreme weather to energy and other infrastructure services. To inform a broader perspective of policy priorities for urban development and risk mitigation, a survey was conducted among over 1200 citizens. The survey explored the state of local conditions, the challenges citizens face, and the ways in which differences in local conditions (socio-institutional, infrastructure, and health-related) demonstrate inequities and influence how citizens perceive risks and rank priorities for the future design and implementation of local planning, policy, and community-based efforts. With growing discussion and tensions surrounding the new urban sustainable development goal, announced by the UN in late September 2015, and a new global urban agenda document to be agreed upon at 'Habitat III', issues on whether sustainable urbanization priorities should be set at the international, national or local level remain controversial. As such, this study aims to first understand determinants of and variations in local priorities across one city, with implications discussed for local-to-global urban sustainability. Findings from survey results indicate the determinants and variation in conditions such as age, assets, levels of participation in residential action groups, the health outcome of chronic asthma, and the infrastructure service of piped water provision to homes are significant in shaping the top infrastructure and environmental policy priorities that include water supply and sanitation, air pollution, waste, and extreme heat. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sperling, J; Romero-Lankao, P; Beig, G

Exploring citizen infrastructure and environmental priorities in Mumbai, India

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.02.006

Ecosystems and biodiversity provide many critical life support functions including clean water, food, climate regulation, and recreational services. Despite its significant values biodiversity in Pakistan is being lost at a significant rate particularly due to agriculture intensification. The intensive agriculture system leading to serious environmental damages including biodiversity loss, water pollution, soil degradation, disruption of carbon sink and increase in GHG emissions. There is a growing recognition of promoting Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) strategies in smallholder agriculture; however, there is limited information about the existing EbA strategies by smallholder farmers and factors that influence the adoption of these practices. This article addresses research gap by using a survey data of 360 households from three districts of Pakistan. We explored existing EbA practices used by farmers and factors associated with the use of these practices. The list of ecosystem-based adaptation practices (EbA) was created on the basis of literature review and with the assistance of expert opinions. This study identified a number of risks associated with ecosystem degradation as perceived by smallholder farmers such as salinization, water pollution, soil erosion and decline in crop productivity. Due to over exploitation of underground water and extensive use of external inputs for agriculture use, the majority of farmers reported decline in water quality and depth of the underground water table. We used a double hurdle model for adoption and intensity of adaptation practices. The results show that farmers' social capital and institutional access increase the probability and intensity of adoption of EbA practices. The study suggests that a majority of smallholder farmers in Pakistan are already using certain EbA strategies, but there is still scope for larger implementation. Institutional policies and non-government organizations (NGOs) can increase broader use of EbA strategies by facilitating farmers' access to subsidized tree nurseries, farmer-to-farmer information and promoting EbA policies in different socioeconomic and agro-ecological context. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shah, SIA; Zhou, JH; Shah, AA

Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) practices in smallholder agriculture; emerging evidence from rural Pakistan

Journal Of Cleaner Production

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.02.028

The mountain cryosphere, which includes glaciers, permafrost, and snow, is one of the Earth's systems most strongly affected by climate change. In recent decades, changes in the cryosphere have been well documented in many high-mountain regions. While there are some benefits from snow and ice loss, the negative impacts, including from glacier lake outburst floods and variations in glacier runoff, are generally considered to far outweigh the positive impacts, particularly if cultural impacts are considered. In international climate policy, there has been growing momentum to address the negative impacts of climate change, or Loss and Damage' (L&D) from climate change. It is not clear exactly what can and should be done to tackle L&D, but researchers and practitioners are beginning to engage with policy discussions and develop potential frameworks and supporting information. Despite the strong impact of climate change on the mountain cryosphere, there has been limited interaction between cryosphere researchers and L&D. Therefore, little work has been done to consider how L&D in the mountain cryosphere might be conceptualized, categorized, and assessed. Here, we make a first attempt to analyze L&D in the mountain cryosphere by conducting a systematic literature review to extract L&D impacts and examples from existing literature. We find that L&D is a global phenomenon in the mountain cryosphere and has been more frequently documented in the developing world, both in relation with slow and sudden onset processes. We develop a categorization of L&D, making distinctions between physical and societal impacts, primary and secondary impacts, and identifying seven types of L&D (including L&D to culture, livelihoods, revenue, natural resources, life, and security). We hope this conceptual approach will support future work to understand and address L&D in the mountain cryosphere.

Huggel, C; Muccione, V; Carey, M; James, R; Jurt, C; Mechler, R

Loss and Damage in the mountain cryosphere

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1385-8

Over the last few years, the occurrence and severity of climate change-induced floods in urban Kumasi, Ghana, have increased considerably, leading to devastating effects on both lives and properties. Yet, policy developments have often ignored the perspectives of residents who have experienced these floods. This study used a mixed-method approach including household surveys with 150 households and 5 key informant interviews to determine the drivers and coping mechanisms for floods in three selected communities in urban Kumasi, Ghana. Rainfall data (2001-2021) were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall trend test. A binary logistic regression was used to determine the enablers and barriers to coping mechanisms for floods. Results showed that the study respondents perceived changes in rainfall and floods through increasing amounts of rainfall, increasing duration of the rainy season, and increased incidences of floods. The perceptions of the respondents regarding rainfall changes were consistent with the analyzed rainfall data (2001-2021) which showed an increasing annual rainfall. A multiplicity of causes including poor design of drains, choked drains, and inadequate drainage infrastructure were reported by the study respondents. Destruction of properties, decreased economic productivity and soil erosion were reported as the major effects of floods. The respondents implemented various coping mechanisms including temporary migration and relying on family and friends to manage the adverse effects of floods. Findings indicated that access to climate information, access to household communication gadgets, age of respondents, and period of staying in the community significantly affected the coping mechanisms employed by the respondents (p < 0.05). Barriers impeding the implementation of these coping mechanisms reported by the study respondents included financial constraints, inadequate support from government and non-governmental institutions, and a lack of understanding of early warning systems. Accessibility to timely climate information should be prioritized to help people improve their information-sharing and decision-making processes in managing floods in urban Kumasi.

Antwi-Agyei, P; Baffour-Ata, F; Koomson, S; Kyeretwie, NK; Nti, NB; Owusu, AO; Razak, FA

Drivers and coping mechanisms for floods: experiences of residents in urban Kumasi, Ghana

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05775-0

Climate change issues and adaptation strategies have drawn much attention from many fields in recent years. Taiwan, an island state, is deeply threatened by the multiple threats posed by climate change. However, different urban and rural areas have numerous adaptation approaches due to their differences in vulnerability. In Taipei City (urban), its biophysical vulnerability is mainly affected by flooded areas and high flood depths caused by landslides and heavy rains. Its social vulnerability is affected by economic development, high household assets, and population concentration. In Yunlin County (rural), its biophysical vulnerability is also affected by flooded areas and high flood depths caused by heavy rains. Its social vulnerability is affected by the elderly living alone, low household assets, and low healthcare. In order to propose appropriate adaptation strategies of urban and rural areas under different vulnerabilities, this study uses an overlapping method to examine the relationship between the integrated vulnerability (biophysical and social) of Taipei and Yunlin along with the ecological footprint (EF), a measurement of human demands for resources and ecological services. This study reviews the literature and uses Taiwan's NCDR (National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction) data to analyze the biophysical vulnerability and the social vulnerability and further calculate the integrated vulnerability. In this study, questionnaire surveys were conducted. In Taipei, 446 valid questionnaires were collected, while 393 were collected in Yunlin. The results show that personal EF in Taipei is higher than that in Yunlin. In the end, this study elucidates the relationship between integrated vulnerability and personal EF of Taipei and Yunlin. Four types of risk areas in urban Taipei and rural Yunlin are sorted out (high vulnerability/high EF, high vulnerability/low EF, low vulnerability/high EF, and low vulnerability/low EF). The empirical results can be adopted by local governments, communities, and NGOs to establish appropriate strategies for mitigation and adaptation in the different risk areas.

Lee, YJ; Lin, SY

Vulnerability and ecological footprint: a comparison between urban Taipei and rural Yunlin, Taiwan

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05251-6

Southern Africa is a region facing multiple stressors, including chronic, recurrent food insecurity and persistent threats of famine. Climate information, including seasonal climate forecasts, has been heralded as a promising tool for early-warning systems and agricultural risk management in southern Africa. Nevertheless, there is concern that climate information, for example climate forecasts, are not realizing their potential value in the region. The present study considers the actual and potential roles played by climate information in reducing food insecurity in southern Africa from 2 perspectives. The first relates to improved understanding of the contextual environment in which end users operate and use information. Users, including farmers, usually operate in an environment of considerable uncertainty, reacting to and coping with multiple stressors whose impacts are not always clear or predictable. The second perspective relates to improving the current design and variety of mechanisms (e.g. climate outlook forums) for the dissemination and uptake of climate information. The first relates to improved understanding of the contextual environment in which end users operate and use information. Users, including farmers, usually operate in an environment of considerable uncertainty, reacting to and coping with multiple stressors whose impacts are not always clear or predictable. The second perspective relates to improving the current design and variety of mechanisms (e.g. climate outlook forums) for the dissemination and uptake of climate information. Climate information, it is argued, used in isolation (e.g. in 'stand alone' climate outlook forums) and undertaken in a traditional, linear fashion, where information is moved from producer to user, is divorced from the broader, complex social context in which such information is embedded. This current articulation of climate information flow represents an ineffective means of dealing with climate variability and food security. Alternative modes of interaction (e.g. using existing platforms to 'piggyback' information or seeking appropriate 'boundary organisations') should be found to sustainably manage climate risks in the region.

Vogel, C; O'Brien, K

Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and regional climate-risk management strategies

Climate Research

https://doi.org/10.3354/cr033111

Although the need for agriculture to adapt to climate change is well established, there is relatively little research within a UK context that explores how the risks associated with climate change are perceived at the farm level, nor how farmers are adapting their businesses to improve resilience in the context of climate change. Based on 31 in-depth, qualitative interviews (15 with farmers and 16 with stakeholders including advisors, consultants and industry representatives) this paper begins to address this gap by exploring experiences, attitudes and responses to extreme weather and climate change. The results point to a mixed picture of resilience to climate risks. All interviewees had experienced or witnessed negative impacts from extreme weather events in recent years but concern was expressed that too few farm businesses are taking sufficient action to increase their business resilience to extreme weather and climate change. Many farmers interviewed for this research did not perceive adaptation to be a priority and viewed the risks as either too uncertain and/or too long-term to warrant any significant investment of time or money at present when many are preoccupied with short-term profitability and business survival. We identified a range of issues and barriers that are constraining improved resilience across the industry, including some lack of awareness about the type and cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation options. Nevertheless, we also found evidence of positive actions being taken by many, whether in direct response to climate change/extreme weather or as a result of other drivers such as soil health, policy and legislation, cost reduction, productivity and changing consumer demands. Our findings reveal a number of actions that can help enable adaption at the farm level including improved industry collaboration, farmer-to-farmer learning, and the need for tools and support that take into account the specificities of different farming systems and that can be easily tailored or interpreted to help farmers understand what climate change means for their particular farm and, crucially, what they can do to increase their resilience to both extreme weather and longer term climate risks.

Wheeler, R; Lobley, M

Managing extreme weather and climate change in UK agriculture: Impacts, attitudes and action among farmers and stakeholders

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100313

Agriculture is often described as one of the sectors most vulnerable to future climate change, and its vulnerability is commonly assessed through quantitative indices. However, such indices differ significantly depending on their selected indicators, weighting mechanisms, and summarizing methods, often leading to divergent assessments of vulnerability for the same geographic area. The use of generic indicators might also lead to a loss of information about contextual risks and vulnerabilities. This may reduce the perceived usefulness of indices among stakeholders. This study analyses the role of indicators in assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change. It analyses how indices are understood and used through three separate focus group sessions, involving agricultural experts professionally active in south-eastern Sweden. The paper presents how agricultural practitioners perceive a set of common vulnerability indicators, presented through a visualization tool, and their relevance, logic, and applicability to assess and address vulnerability to climate change. The results of this study contribute with perspectives on (i) the relevance and applicability of the commonly used generic indicators for agricultural vulnerability (ii) the assumed correlation of indicators with climate vulnerability and (iii) the identification of missing vulnerability indicators. The study finds that commonly used vulnerability indicators are perceived hard to apply in practice, as definitions and thresholds are often depending on the geographical and temporal scale, as well as the regional context. Additional exposure factors that were identified included extreme events, such as heavy precipitation and external factors such as global food demand and trade-patterns. Further, participants expressed that it is important to include indices that combine effects of multiple climatic changes and in-direct factors, such as policies, regulations and measures. Inherent complexities, context dependencies, and multiple factors should further be included, but entail difficulties in developing suitable indicators. These factors must be addressed by a broader set of qualitative and quantitative indicators, and greater flexibility in the assessment methodology. The interactive vulnerability assessments presented in this paper indicate a need for an integration of quantitative and qualitative aspects and how such indicators could be developed and applied.

Neset, TS; Wiréhn, L; Opach, T; Glaas, E; Linnér, BO

Evaluation of indicators for agricultural vulnerability to climate change: The case of Swedish agriculture

Ecological Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.05.042

Purpose This study aims to examine the research output on climate change, environmental risks and insurance from 1986 to 2020, thereby revealing the development of the literature through collaborative networks. The relationship between insurance, climate change and environmental threats has gained research attention. This study describes the interaction between insurance, climate change and environmental risk. Design/methodology/approach This study is a bibliometric analysis of the literature and assessed the current state of science. A total of 97 academic papers from top-level journals listed in the Scopus database are shortlisted. Findings The understanding of climate change, environmental risks and insurance is shaped and enhanced through the collaborative network maps of researchers. Their reach expands across different networks, core themes and streams, as these topics develop. Research limitations/implications Data for this study were generated from English-written journal articles listed in the Scopus database only; subsequently, this study was representative of high-quality papers published in the areas of climate change, environmental risks and insurance. Practical implications The results of this study can be useful to academic researchers to aid their understanding of climate change, environmental risks and insurance research development, to identify the current context and to develop a future research agenda. Social implications The findings of this study can improve the understanding of industry practitioners about climate change and global warming challenges, and how insurance can be used as a tool to address such challenges. Originality/value This study is a novel attempt. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is one of the first studies to better understand climate change, environmental risks and insurance as a research topic by examining its evolution in an academic context through visualization, coupling and bibliometric analysis. This bibliometric study is unique in reviewing climate change literature and providing a future research agenda. Using bibliometric data, this study addressed the technical aspects and the value it adds to actual practice. Bibliometric indicators quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate emerging disciplinary progress in this topic.

Nobanee, H; Dilshad, MN; Abu Lamdi, O; Ballool, B; Al Dhaheri, S; AlMheiri, N; Alyammahi, A; Alhemeiri, SS

Insurance for climate change and environmental risk: a bibliometric review

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-08-2021-0097

While climate change is a global phenomenon, it has significantly stifled agricultural productivity in the Global South due to changes of key atmospheric elements including extreme temperatures and unpredictable rainfall over the last fifty years. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in sub-Saharan Africa where rainfed agriculture is the dominant livelihood strategy, climate change is increasingly undermining rural livelihoods. Despite several policy efforts to improve climate adaptation in this context, smallholders' lack of access to credit constitutes one of the crucial dimensions of climatic vulnerability. Using an ordered logistic regression model, this study analyzed data from a cross-sectional survey (n = 1,100) in the Upper West Region to examine the relationship between smallholder farmers' access to credit and their perceived climate change resilience. Findings show that households with access to credit from informal sources were more likely (OR = 1.73, p <= 0.05) to report good resilience compared to those without access. Households that received remittances were also more likely (OR = 3.26, p <= 0.001) to report good resilience compared to non-receiving households. Further, households that did not rear any livestock surprisingly emerged more likely (OR = 2.00, p <= 0.001) to report good resilience compared to those that reared livestock. On the contrary, households that had experienced any climatic events in the past 12 months before the study were less likely (OR = 0.29, p <= 0.01) to report good resilience compared to households that did not experience any events. These findings highlight the potential contribution of informal credit sources to improving rural agricultural productivity and climate change resilience. Informal credit sources may be capable of providing smallholder farmers with the needed access to more flexible financial credit options. The study provides policy recommendations on what might be useful to vulnerable groups, and others in similar contexts.

Batung, ES; Mohammed, K; Kansanga, MM; Nyantakyi-Frimpong, H; Luginaah, I

Credit access and perceived climate change resilience of smallholder farmers in semi-arid northern Ghana

Environment Development And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-02056-x

In a standard decision-making model for a game of chance, the best strategy is chosen based on the current state of the system under various conditions. There is however a shortcoming of this standard model, in that it can be applicable only for short-term decision-making periods. This is primarily due to not evaluating the dynamic characteristics and changes in status of the system and the outcomes of nature towards an a priori target or ideal state, which can occur in longer periods. Thus, in this study, a decisionmaking model based on the concept of stratification (CST), game theory and shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) is developed and its applicability to disaster management is shown. The game of chance and CST have been integrated to incorporate the dynamic nature of the decision environment for long-term disaster risk planning, while accounting for various states of the system and an ideal state. Furthermore, an interactive web application with dynamic user interface is built based on the proposed model to enable decision makers to identify the best choices in their model by a predictive approach. The Monte Carlo simulation is applied to experimentally validate the proposed model. Then, it is demonstrated how this methodology can suitably be applied to obtain ad hoc models, solutions, and analysis in the strategic decision-making process of flooding risk strategy evaluation. The model's applicability is shown in an uncertain real-world decision-making context, considering dynamic nature of socio-economic situations and flooding hazards in the Highland and Argyll Local Plan District in Scotland. The empirical results show that flood forecasting and awareness raising are the two most beneficial mitigation strategies in the region followed by emergency plans/response, planning policies, maintenance , and self help . (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )

Vafadarnikjoo, A; Chalvatzis, K; Botelho, T; Bamford, D

A stratified decision-making model for long-term planning: Application in flood risk management in Scotland

Omega-International Journal Of Management Science

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2022.102803

Identifying and analyzing the urban-rural differences of social vulnerability to natural hazards is imperative to ensure that urbanization develops in a way that lessens the impacts of disasters and generate building resilient livelihoods in China. Using data from the 2000 and 2010 population censuses, this study conducted an assessment of the social vulnerability index (SVI) by applying the projection pursuit cluster model. The temporal and spatial changes of social vulnerability in urban and rural areas were then examined during China's rapid urbanization period. An index of urban-rural differences in social vulnerability (SVID) was derived, and the global and local Moran's I of the SVID were calculated to assess the spatial variation and association between the urban and rural SVI. In order to fully determine the impacts of urbanization in relation to social vulnerability, a spatial autoregressive model and Bivariate Moran's I between urbanization and SVI were both calculated. The urban and rural SVI both displayed a steadily decreasing trend from 2000 to 2010, although the urban SVI was always larger than the rural SVI in the same year. In 17.5% of the prefectures, the rural SVI was larger than the urban SVI in 2000, but was smaller than the urban SVI in 2010. About 12.6% of the urban areas in the prefectures became less vulnerable than rural areas over the study period, while in more than 51.73% of the prefectures the urban-rural SVI gap decreased over the same period. The SVID values in all prefectures had a significantly positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial clusters were apparent. Over time, social vulnerability to natural hazards at the prefecture-level displayed a gathering-scattering pattern across China. Though a regional variation of social vulnerability developed during China's rapid urbanization, the overall trend was for a steady reduction in social vulnerability in both urban and rural areas.

Ge, Y; Dou, W; Wang, XT; Chen, Y; Zhang, ZY

Identifying urban-rural differences in social vulnerability to natural hazards: a case study of China

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04792-9

On the outer coast of Washington state, traditional lifestyles are closely entwined with the marine resources affected by ocean change, e.g., ocean warming, ocean acidification, fishing, coastal development, etc. Our research explores how ongoing ocean change may challenge the social-ecological system surrounding the Quinault Indian Nation's razor clam (Siliqua patula) harvest. We conducted semistructured interviews with Quinault tribal members, scientists, and resource managers to build a conceptual model of the social-ecological system, which we use to (1) understand the emergent effects of changes in availability of razor clams and (2) explore how the tribal community might prepare for or adapt to these changes. Razor clams are a staple food and key source of income for the Quinault people because of their lasting abundance, low cost to harvest, and long season of availability relative to other natural resources. Lower income families experience disproportionate economic impacts during razor clam harvest closures, but less tangible social and cultural impacts are felt broadly throughout the community. Although razor clams have been, in general, available and safe for harvest in recent years, the Quinault people perceive many threats to the resource, including climate change, harmful algal blooms, pollution, and habitat loss. We used the perceived risks identified from the interview results, along with peer-reviewed scientific literature, to develop several ocean change scenarios. Using a stage-based population model of the Pacific razor clam, we explored the relative impacts of these scenarios on annual razor clam harvest over a 20-year period. The simulation of scenarios was developed into a user-friendly web-based application as a planning tool for the Quinault Indian Nation, to help them explore connections between ocean change and razor clam availability, and to support their efforts to plan for and adapt to the impacts of change.

Crosman, KM; Petrou, EL; Rudd, MB; Tillotson, MD

Clam hunger and the changing ocean: characterizing social and ecological risks to the Quinault razor clam fishery using participatory modeling

Ecology And Society

https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10928-240216

Climate change has always been a thing of concern in agricultural production, especially in yam production. The study investigated farmer adaptation strategies to the effect of climate change on yam production in Kogi State with the specific objectives of assessing the socio-economic characteristics of farmers, farmers' climate related constraints, the adaptation strategies employed by farmers, and yam farmers' level of knowledge on climate change. A multistage sampling technique was used to select one hundred and twenty respondents from the different communities selected in the study area in year 2019. Data were collected through structured interview schedule. The data were analysed using frequency counts, percentages and Pearson Product Moment Correlation. Results obtained showed that farmers in the study area were mostly males with a mean age of 44.5 years. Most of the yam farmers in Kogi State got information on climate change from other farmers (77.3%) and (81.3%) of the respondents aware of climate change. Furthermore, the major effects of climate change as identified by the respondents were pest infestation (90.8%) and high rate weed growth (88.3%). Various strategies adopted by yam farmers include mulching (Mean=5.0), intercropping yam with other crops (Mean=4.5), use of weather-resistant variety (Mean=4.1) and use of early maturing crop varieties (Mean=3.8). Pearson product moment correlation shows that there is a significant relationship between estimated annual (r = 0.887), income farming experience (r = 0.274) and the farmers' level of awareness. Therefore, efforts should be made towards developing and making available, yam seeds and yam tubers that can adapt to the change in climate and weather elements like flood and drought. These findings suggest the need for more training on climate change, the adaptation methods, environmental education and sustainability of yam cropping.

Ogunjimi, S; Ikefusi, N

STRATEGIES ADOPTED BY YAM FARMERS IN COMBATING CLIMATE CHANGE IN KOGI STATE NIGERIA

Scientific Papers-Series Management Economic Engineering In Agriculture And Rural Development

Disaster recovery efforts form an essential component of coping with unforeseen events such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and typhoons, some of which will only become more frequent or severe in the face of accelerated climate change. Most of the time, disaster recovery efforts produce net benefits to society. However, depending on their design and governance, some projects can germinate adverse social, political, and economic outcomes. Drawing from concepts in political economy, political ecology, justice theory, and critical development studies, this study first presents a conceptual typology revolving around four key processes: enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment. Enclosure refers to when disaster recovery transfers public assets into private hands or expands the roles of private actors into the public sphere. Exclusion refers to when disaster recovery limits access to resources or marginalizes particular stakeholders in decision-making activities. Encroachment refers to when efforts intrude on biodiversity areas or contribute to other forms of environmental degradation. Entrenchment refers to when disaster recovery aggravates the disempowerment of women and minorities, or worsens concentrations of wealth and income inequality within a community. The study then documents the presence of these four inequitable attributes across four empirical case studies: Hurricane Katrina reconstruction in the United States, recovery efforts for the 2004 tsunami in Thailand, Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines, and the Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand. It next offers three policy recommendations for analysts, program managers, and researchers at large: spreading risks via insurance, adhering to principles of free prior informed consent, and preventing damage through punitive environmental bonds. The political economy of disaster must be taken into account so that projects can maximize their efficacy and avoid marginalizing those most vulnerable to those very disasters. (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sovacool, BK; Tan-Mullins, M; Abrahamse, W

Bloated bodies and broken bricks: Power, ecology, and inequality in the political economy of natural disaster recovery

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.028

Among the projected effects of climate change, water resources are at the center of the matrix. Certainly, the southern African climate is changing, consequently, localized studies are needed to determine the magnitude of anticipated changes for effective adaptation. Utilizing historical observation data over the Olifants River Catchment, we examined trends in temperature and rainfall for the period 1976-2019. In addition, future climate change projections under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for two time periods of 2036-2065 (near future) and 2066-2095 (far future) were analysed using an ensemble of eight regional climate model (RCA4) simulations of the CORDEX Africa initiative. A modified Mann-Kendall test was used to determine trends and the statistical significance of annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. The characteristics of extreme dry conditions were assessed by computing the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The results suggest that the catchment has witnessed an increase in temperatures and an overall decline in rainfall, although no significant changes have been detected in the distribution of rainfall over time. Furthermore, the surface temperature is expected to rise significantly, continuing a trend already evident in historical developments. The results further indicate that the minimum temperatures over the Catchment are getting warmer than the maximum temperatures. Seasonally, the minimum temperature warms more frequently in the summer season from December to February (DJF) and the spring season from September to November (SON) than in the winter season from June to August (JJA) and in the autumn season from March to May (MAM). The results of the SPI affirm the persistent drought conditions over the Catchment. In the context of the current global warming, this study provides an insight into the changing characteristics of temperatures and rainfall in a local context. The information in this study can provide policymakers with useful information to help them make informed decisions regarding the Olifants River Catchment and its resources.

Adeola, AM; Kruger, A; Makgoale, TE; Botai, JO

Observed trends and projections of temperature and precipitation in the Olifants River Catchment in South Africa

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271974

Problem, research strategy, and findings Here we describe a critical link between drought risk management and planning at the local level, the traditional lack of overlap between these fields, and current and future opportunities for addressing drought within local drought planning. We used a national survey of American Planning Association members (n = 537) to examine local planners' perceptions of drought planning strategies and barriers, as well as their jurisdictions' current and future drought-addressing plans. Explanatory factors included planner experience, communication with water managers and hazard planners, and factors characterizing the drought threat and capacity of their jurisdictions. We found planners most amenable to collaboration with water conservation and hazard mitigation planning processes, somewhat amenable toward integrating drought into local land use plans and day-to-day policies, and less interested in undertaking standalone drought plans. Current and future drought planning endeavors were largely driven by the threat of drought and less so by the resources found within planners' jurisdictions. State plans and mandates played a role by requiring plans and/or providing capacity for the process. Future planning efforts may be limited by the barriers planners perceive. Funding, in terms of local tax resources, does not appear to restrict where drought planning has taken place to date. Planners' perceptions of leadership, political will, data, and coordination across jurisdictions as barriers are lessened through experience, communication with water managers and/or hazard planners, and state mitigation plans. Takeaway for practice Preparing for future drought impacts may require communities to adopt mitigation actions through local planning processes. Local planners may prefer to address drought through water and hazard plans, but land use plans and standalone plans may also be important tools for effective mitigation where drought poses a threat. Some of the barriers that planners face may be reduced through experience and communication with water and hazard planners, as well as their states' engagement in statewide drought mitigation plans.

Haigh, T; Wickham, E; Hamlin, S; Knutson, C

Planning Strategies and Barriers to Achieving Local Drought Preparedness

Journal Of The American Planning Association

https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2022.2071324

The Peruvian Altiplano is frequently threatened by weather extremes, including droughts, frosts, and heavy rainfall. Given the persistence of significant undernourishment despite regional development efforts, this paper attempts to analyse and explain food insecurity in the Puno region in terms of food availability and food sovereignty. The purpose was to estimate the per capita caloric nutritional coverage and to determine the percentage contribution of food groups to the caloric availability in different climate change situations (normal, flood, drought), based on the Food Balance Sheet developed by FAO. Official information mainly from the Direccion Regional Agraria de Puno was used. The analysis revealed that the productive potential for food security and sovereignty of the Puno region depends mostly on climatic behavior, which becomes very critical during the last years. The caloric nutritional coverage in the Puno region during a climatologically normal year, reaches only 60% of the theoretical caloric needs of one person per day, with a caloric deficit of 40%. Even more, a year with excessive rainfalls generates a food calories dependence of 60%, while a year of drought generates 87%. The food groups that contribute most to the caloric availability are tubers, cereals and red meats. However, the proportions of the supply vary substantially according to the particular behavior of rainfalls, either in a normal year, with excessive rainfalls and/or in a drought situation. Results revealed a deficit of 1,000kcal per capita per day in the Puno region even during normal years (750mm of water layer), which can be resolved in a great part doubling the regional production of potato and quinoa, achieving a nutritional coverage of 95% of the nutritional requirements. These results must be considered to implement public policies focused in redress the caloric imbalance and adaptation to climate change in the Puno region.

Gonzales-Valero, W

Hazards to food caloric availability and coverage per capita due to climate change in the Puno region, Peruvian Altiplano: Challenges in food security and sovereignty

Food And Energy Security

https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.134

Background. Indigenous residents of Alaska's Bering Strait Region depend, both culturally and nutritionally, on ice seal and walrus harvests. Currently, climate change and resultant increases in marine industrial development threaten these species and the cultures that depend on them. Objective. To document: (a) local descriptions of the importance of marine mammal hunting; (b) traditional methods for determining if harvested marine mammals are safe to consume; and (c) marine mammal outcomes that would have adverse effects on community health, the perceived causes of these outcomes, strategies for preventing these outcomes and community adaptations to outcomes that cannot be mitigated. Design. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were conducted with 82 indigenous hunters and elders from the Bering Strait region. Standard qualitative analysis was conducted on interview transcripts, which were coded for both inductive and deductive codes. Responses describing marine mammal food safety and importance are presented using inductively generated categories. Responses describing negative marine mammal outcomes are presented in a vulnerability framework, which links human health outcomes to marine conditions. Results. Project participants perceived that shipping noise and pollution, as well as marine mammal food source depletion by industrial fishing, posed the greatest threats to marine mammal hunting traditions. Proposed adaptations primarily fell into 2 categories: (a) greater tribal influence over marine policy; and (b) documentation of traditional knowledge for local use. This paper presents 1 example of documenting traditional knowledge as an adaptation strategy: traditional methods for determining if marine mammal food is safe to eat. Conclusions. Participant recommendations indicate that 1 strategy to promote rural Alaskan adaptation to climate change is to better incorporate local knowledge and values into decision-making processes. Participant interest in documenting traditional knowledge for local use also indicates that funding agencies could support climate change adaptation by awarding more grants for tribal research that advances local, rather than academic, use of traditional knowledge.

Gadamus, L

Linkages between human health and ocean health: a participatory climate change vulnerability assessment for marine mammal harvesters

International Journal Of Circumpolar Health

https://doi.org/10.3402/ijch.v72i0.20715

The concept of livelihood resilience provides a unique framework for understanding challenges in complex social-ecological systems (SESs) and fostering sustainability. Despite the crises many small-scale fisheries (SSFs) are facing, few studies have operationalized the concept in the context of declining SSFs in developing countries. This study aims to assess the resilience of artisanal fisherfolk livelihoods and its predicting factors in three fishing communities-Elmina, Jamestown, and Axim-in Ghana. A total of 1180 semi-structured interviews were conducted with fishers, fish processors, and mongers. Descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques were used to analyze the data. The results show that the livelihood resilience of fisherfolk increases with an increased level of education and varies by gender. Male fisherfolk with secondary/post-secondary level education had the highest proportion (50%) of more resilient livelihoods. Only 36% of female fisherfolk with secondary/post-secondary level education had more resilient livelihoods. While 40% of male fisherfolk with no formal education had less resilient livelihoods, the livelihoods of half (51%) of females fisherfolk with no formal education were less resilient. The sociodemographic characteristics including wealth status, dependency ratio, marital status, religion, and ethnicity; contextual factors (community); and other relevant factors (experience in fishing, membership of fisherfolk association/group, and beneficiary of livelihood interventions) were found as predictors of the resilience of fisherfolks livelihoods. The findings suggest that interventions towards improving the livelihood resilience of fisherfolk need to consider individual- and household-level characteristics, as well as contextual factors such as marital status, religious affiliation, ethnicity, wealth status, dependency ratio, community, etc.

Amadu, I; Armah, FA; Aheto, DW

Assessing Livelihood Resilience of Artisanal Fisherfolk to the Decline in Small-Scale Fisheries in Ghana

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810404

Coastal areas face a significant risk of tsunami after a nearby heavy earthquake. Comprehensive coastal port cities often complicate and intensify this risk due to the high vulnerability of their communities and liabilities associated with secondary damage. Accessibility to tsunami shelters is a key measure of adaptive capacity in response to tsunami risks and should therefore be enhanced. This study integrates the hazards that create risk into two dimensions: hazard-product risk and hazard-affected risk. Specifically, the hazard-product risk measures the hazard occurrence probability, intensity, duration, and extension in a system. The hazard-affected risk measures the extent to which the system is affected by the hazard occurrence. This enables the study of specific strategies for responding to each kind of risk to enhance accessibility to tsunami shelters. Nagoya city in Japan served as the case study: the city is one of the most advanced tsunami-resilient port cities in the world. The spatial distribution of the hazard-product risk and hazard-affected risk was first visualized in 165 school district samples, covering 213 km(2) using a hot spot analysis. The results suggest that the rules governing the distribution of these two-dimensional (2-D) risks are significantly different. By refining the tsunami evacuation time-space routes, trafficlocation-related indicators, referring to three-scale traffic patterns with three-hierarchy traffic roads, are used as accessibility variables. Two-way multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) was used to analyse the differences in these accessibility variables to compare the 2-D risk. MANOVA was also used to assess the difference of accessibility between high-level risk and low-level risk in each risk dimension. The results show that tsunami shelter accessibility strategies, targeting hazard-product risk and hazard-affected risk, are significantly different in Nagoya. These different strategies are needed to adapt to the risk.

Zhang, WT; Wu, JY; Yun, YX

Strategies for increasing tsunami shelter accessibility to enhance hazard risk adaptive capacity in coastal port cities: a study of Nagoya city, Japan

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-927-2019

Transformations are fundamentally about agency: human intention, motivation, and power to influence and to resist. Most studies focus on deliberate system-level transformations, usually guided by a set of influential actors. However, system-level transformations may also occur as the result of the cascading effects of multiple individual transformations in response or in anticipation to various crises. Little is known about how crises foster these individual transformations, and how these may relate to different types of system-level change. This article fills this gap by looking at how crisis fosters two different types of agencies-internal and external-and how these link to individual transformations in the case of Greece's back-to-the-land movement whereby urbanites sought to reconnect with land-based livelihoods during the economic crisis (2008 onwards). The article draws on the qualitative analysis of 76 interviews of back-to-the-landers to further understand why people are going back-to-the-land (their motivations), how these relate to the concept of agency and individual transformation, and what implications might there be for system-level social-ecological transformations. This article makes three key points. First, crises create different opportunity contexts that may lead to rapid changes in what is valued in the broader social discourse. While social values and discourses are usually considered to be deep levers and slow to change, we found that they can rapidly shift in times of crises, challenging notions of the role of fast vs. slow variables in system transformations. Second, agency is needed to respond to crises but is also further catalyzed and enhanced through crisis; activating one's internal agency leads to personal transformations as well as collective transformations (linked to external agency), which are mutually co-constitutive. And third, systemic-level transformation emerges through multiple pathways including through the aggregation of multiple individual transformations that may lead to emergent system-level changes.

Benessaiah, K; Eakin, H

Crisis, transformation, and agency: Why are people going back-to-the-land in Greece?

Sustainability Science

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-021-01043-5

Flash flooding is one of the most devastating natural disasters in China. A quantitative flash flood hazard assessment is important for saving human lives and reducing economic losses. In this study, integrated rainfall-runoff modeling (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic modeling (FLO-2D) schemes were used to assess flash flood inundation areas and depths under 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year, 200-year, 500-year and 1000-year rainfall scenarios in a mountainous basin (Hadahe River Basin, HRB) in northern China. The overall flash flood hazard in HRB is high. Under the eight rainfall scenarios, the total flooded area ranged from 6 to 8.73 km(2); the flash flood inundation areas with depths of 1-2 m, 2-3 m, and over 3 m was 1.53-2.69 km(2), 0.63-1.44 km(2)and 0.33-1.11 km(2), respectively; and these areas accounted for 25.5-30.8%, 10.5-16.5% and 5.5-12.7% of the whole flooded area. The total flooded area increases rapidly with the return period increasing from 5 to 200 years, and the increase gradient slows when the return period is greater than 200 years. In the downstream area of HRB, the flash flood area with inundation depths greater than 1 m accounted for 54-71% of the flooded area under the eight scenarios. In comparison to other areas in the HRB, the downstream area is at the highest risk given its extensive inundation and substantial property exposure. The quantitative hazard assessment framework presented in this study can be applied in other mountainous basins for flash flood defense and disaster management purposes.

Zhang, Y; Wang, Y; Zhang, YX; Luan, QZ; Liu, HP

Multi-scenario flash flood hazard assessment based on rainfall-runoff modeling and flood inundation modeling: a case study

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04345-6