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Extreme rainfall associated with mid-tropospheric cut-off low (COL) pressure systems affected the entire east coast of South Africa during April 2022, leading to flooding and destruction of homes, electricity power lines, and road infrastructure, and leaving 448 people confirmed dead. Therefore, this study investigated the evolution of the two COLs and their impacts, including the occurrence of extreme rainfall and cold weather over the southeast coast of the country. We analysed observed and reanalysis meteorological data and mapped areas at risk to impacts of flood hazards on the east coast of South Africa. Extreme rainfall (>500 mm) accumulated over 16 days was observed along the east coast, with the amount of rainfall progressively decreasing inland. We found that the rainfall associated with the first COL was significantly enhanced by the interactions between a strong low-level onshore airflow across the Agulhas Current and the coastal escarpment, resulting in deep convection and lifting. An unusual surface cyclone with tropical characteristics developed over the subtropical southwest Indian Ocean, driving onshore southeasterly winds which enhanced low-level convergence. Moreover, the flood risk results revealed that, amongst others, land cover/use (52.8%), elevation (16.8%) and lithology (15.5%) were the most important flood predictor variables in this study. Much of the study area was found to have very low (28.33%), low (31.82%), and moderate (21.66%) flood risk, whilst the high- and very-high-risk areas accounted for only 17.5% of the total land area. Nonetheless, the derived flood risk map achieved an acceptable level of accuracy of about 89.9% (Area Under Curve = 0.899). The findings of this study contribute to understanding extreme rainfall events and the vulnerability of settlements on South Africa's east coast to flood risk, which can be used towards natural disaster risk reduction.

Mashao, FM; Mothapo, MC; Munyai, RB; Letsoalo, JM; Mbokodo, IL; Muofhe, TP; Matsane, W; Chikoore, H

Extreme Rainfall and Flood Risk Prediction over the East Coast of South Africa

Water

https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010050

In this study, we critically analyze the general and climate-smart adaptation strategies used by farmers in four sub-districts in southern Bangladesh to address the effects of soil salinity in agriculture. Data were collected from 360 respondents using face-to-face interviews and were analyzed using multiple analyses (variance inflation factor, ordinary least squares, Tukey's post hoc test). The adaptations used by farmers to manage the impacts of soil salinity in agriculture were significantly influenced by their age, education, family size, farm size, level of contact with agricultural extension department officials, and their training experience. Farmers found adult education programmes particularly useful, since they focused on smart technique(s) rather than traditional approaches for agricultural development. Adaptation was comparatively more common in 'early adapters' and 'early majority' (slower to adapt) farmers. Our analysis suggests that climate-smart agriculture (CSA) programmes should be implemented in all affected sub-districts and similarly affected parts of the world. Extension workers should provide face-to-face demonstrations to affected farmers and support them with self-help programmes, which can help to attenuate and minimize the effects of soil salinity on agriculture. It will also be important to provide agricultural innovation support to affected farmers to cope with the adverse effects of soil salinity. Effective extension services are key to increasing farmers' access to innovative information and advice. Key policy insights A philosophy of 'learning by viewing' for climate-smart agricultural innovations may encourage them to adopt adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of soil salinity on agriculture. Training programmes could be offered to farmers by the Department of Agricultural Extension, especially to target innovators and early adopters of climate-smart practices, supporting them with a 'self-help' approach. A motivational approach and good communication skills play a vital role when introducing new adaptation strategies. A climate-smart investment plan could identify policy opportunities to further develop agriculture actions to combat climate change. Building resilience to global climate change would help to sustainably increase agricultural productivity and incomes across farming communities.

Mazumder, MSU; Kabir, MH

Farmers' adaptations strategies towards soil salinity effects in agriculture: the interior coast of Bangladesh

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.2024126

Krabi and Nakhon Si Thammarat are two coastal provinces in Thailand facing substantial threats from climate change induced hydrometeorological hazards, including enhanced coastal erosion and flooding. Human populations and livelihoods in these coastal provinces are at greater risk than those in inland provinces. However, little is known about the communities' resilience and coping capacities regarding hydrometeorological hazards of varying magnitudes. The study conducted a quantitative socio-economic assessment of how people in Krabi and Nakhon Si Thammarat provinces manage and respond to hydrometeorological hazards, examining their resilience and coping capacities. This was a cross-sectional study based on secondary data collection on the social and economic dimensions of resilience, and a review of literature on coping mechanisms to hydrometeorological hazards within the study area. Measuring and mapping socio-economic resilience was based on the available data gathered from the social and economic dimensions, with existing or standard indicators on exposure and vulnerability applied uniformly across subdistricts. A combination of social and economic dimensions produced novel socio-economic resilience index scores by subdistrict, which were mapped accordingly for the two coastal provinces. The study also derived a coping capacity index scores by combining availability of skills or soft capacity and availability of structural resources or hard coping capacity. Socio-economic resilience index scores varied greatly amongst subdistricts. Combining the soft and hard coping capacities, the average score across districts in both provinces was 3 out of a possible 4, meaning that most of the districts were largely resilient. However, variations also existed by subdistrict. Few subdistricts in both Krabi and Nakhon Si Thammarat provinces had low coping capacity index scores between 1 and 2 out of 4. District averages of socio-economic resilience scores mask the variations at subdistrict level. More studies with rigorous methodologies at village or neighborhood level is needed to obtain a nuanced understanding of community resilience to hydrometeorological hazards.

Langkulsen, U; Rwodzi, DT; Cheewinsiriwat, P; Nakhapakorn, K; Moses, C

Socio-Economic Resilience to Floods in Coastal Areas of Thailand

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19127316

Climate-induced livelihood transitions in the agricultural systems of Africa are increasingly likely. There is limited evidence on what such transitions might look like. We carried out fieldwork in 12 sites in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda to understand changes in farming systems in the recent past, and to test the hypothesis that sedentary farmers in zones that may become warmer and drier in the future may be forced to increase their reliance on livestock vis-a-vis cropping in the future. We estimated the contribution of crop and livestock activities to incomes, food security and poverty. Householders were asked how to adapt farming in the future. We found no direct evidence for the hypothesised extensification of production across study sites. Human diets have changed considerably in the last 40 years, as cropping has been taken up by increasing numbers of pastoral households, even in marginal places. Maize and legumes predominate, but some householders are increasing their crop and diet diversity, particularly in locations with annual rainfall higher than 800 mm. At all sites people want more livestock. Food insecurity is common at all sites with an annual rainfall of 800 mm or less, and critical levels are seen at sites with <700 mm. Households are self-sufficient in securing adequate dietary energy from food production in 7 of the 12 sites, all with rainfall higher than 800 mm. Although many householders have some knowledge about drought-tolerant crops, few cultivate millet, sorghum and cassava. Policies aimed at increasing the consumption of cassava, sorghum, millet and pigeon pea could be highly beneficial for future food security in the region. Vulnerability in the drier locations is already high, and policies should support safety nets and market and infrastructural development. Households in the wetter areas need to manage risk and to increase crop productivity. A critical requirement is knowledge transfer concerning the growing and utilisation of unfamiliar and untraditional crops. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rufino, MC; Thornton, PK; Ng'ang'a, SK; Mutie, I; Jones, PG; van Wijk, MT; Herrero, M

Transitions in agro-pastoralist systems of East Africa: Impacts on food security and poverty

Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2013.08.019

With the increasing awareness of the risks and impacts of climate change, scholars tend to pay more attention to the applications of indicators, which access the effectiveness of climate change adaptation. This study aims to evaluate the overall progress of climate change adaptation in China during 2010-2018 in a quantitative manner. The Index for Climate Change Adaptation in China (ICCAC) has been thus developed by adopting the analytic hierarchy process weighting and expert scoring method. Namely, ICCAC is composed of national climate change impacts, adaptation actions in key sectors, adaptation progress in key sectors, and the national adaptation policy framework. Overall, the ICCAC and its four sub-indexes increased significantly from 2010 to 2018, on a yearly-basis. Each sub-index implied that the socio-economic impacts caused by climate change in China have been alleviated gradually; specifically, the mainstream endeavor of key sectors has witnessed remarkable progress, however, it is worth noting that the gap between individual adaptation actions and policies still exists; the implementation effect of policies in key sectors is not as affluent as that of actions; the current adaptation endeavor in key areas is still closely related to the mainstream business of corresponding competent ministries rather than adaptation-aimed actions; the national adaptation policy framework has been primarily formed, but there are still some deficiencies. As a result, the gap in China's adaptation process could be mainly manifested in the following five aspects: i) adaptation effectiveness assessment in forestry and urban infrastructure is urgently needed; ii) policies in marine and water resources sectors need structural reforms; iii) evaluation criteria for national adaptation are not necessarily sufficient; iv) the improvement of adaptive management efficiency has stagnated recently; and v) the adaptation works of relevant Ministries should be coordinated and put forward the corresponding strategies. Finally, this study presents four proposals: conducting an evaluation of adaptation actions in all key sectors, integrating climate change impacts into sectoral planning decisions, launching concrete action plans for adaptation, establishing a complete policy framework on adaptation.

Fu, L; Cao, Y; Kuang, SY; Guo, H

Index for climate change adaptation in China and its application

Advances In Climate Change Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2021.06.006

The main characteristics of global climate change include significant temperature increases and uneven precipitation distributions, which are both limiting factors for the sustainable development of dryland agriculture in semiarid regions. Inner Mongolia, which occupies the largest area of the semiarid region in China, is a good representation of the region's climate and dryland agricultural conditions. Spring wheat is widely grown in this region, but the negative impacts of climate change have seriously threatened spring wheat production in recent years. To adapt to these changes, it is imperative to study the influence of climate change on spring wheat production. We employed a vulnerability assessment method to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of climate change on spring wheat production in Inner Mongolia and recommended specific countermeasures based on the results. The average temperature and precipitation during the spring wheat growing season was 16.5 degrees C and 224 mm, respectively, from 1961 to 2012. Northeastern Inner Mongolia was characterized by lower temperature and higher precipitation; the eastern region had both higher temperature and precipitation; and the southwestern area had higher temperature and lower precipitation. The climate in this region showed a warming and drying trend from 1961 to 2012, with average temperature during the spring wheat growing season increasing with an average rate 0.3 degrees C/10a and average precipitation decreasing with an average rate 4.3 mm/10a. Over the study period (from 1996 to 2012), the vulnerability of spring wheat in the eastern, central, and southwestern areas of Inner Mongolia was high, whereas that in the northeast was relatively low. Assuming the adaptive capacity of spring wheat is stable, the comprehensive unit vulnerability of spring wheat production is expected to significantly increase under the investigated climate change scenarios (based on historical climate trends and RCP4.5, RCP8.5 scenarios) relative to average values over the study period. Exposure and regional vulnerability could be reduced by decreasing the proportion of spring wheat grown in vulnerable areas, such as the central and southwestern areas of Inner Mongolia.

Dong, ZQ; Pan, ZH; He, QJ; Wang, JL; Huang, L; Pan, YY; Han, GL; Xue, XP; Chen, YC

Vulnerability assessment of spring wheat production to climate change in the Inner Mongolia region of China

Ecological Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.10.008

Atoll countries in the Pacific, namely Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu, will become sources of climate migrants in the foreseeable future. This study aimed to examine if people in these atoll countries were, are, or will be ready to successfully relocate to foreign countries by re-establishing their lives and livelihoods in a new environment. An international collaborative research project was launched and implemented from 2017 to 2019. Case studies were conducted in Micronesia, Kiribati, and the Marshall Islands as the origin of climate migrants and in Fiji and the USA as their destination. It was found that a number of legal tools and practical policy measures are available for countries to alleviate the struggles of environmental migrants, despite the lack of a comprehensive legal framework that protects environmental migrants by allowing them to move to other countries. In addition, 65% of the college and university students in the Marshall Islands indicated education as their primary reason to migrate abroad, followed by work (15 %), health (8%), family (7%), climate change (3 %), and natural disasters (2%). The ratios of students who wished to migrate because of climate change were similar between the Marshall Islands (3 %) and Micronesia (4%), despite the fact that the former is an atoll country and the latter is mostly composed of high-lying islands. As for the migrants from the Marshall Islands and Micronesia to the USA, climate change was revealed to be a contributing factor for some in their decision to migrate, and more so as a factor for not returning home. It was also found that education had more influence than religion or culture on people's perception of climate change and its implications in the Marshall Islands and Kiribati. The policy implemented in Vienna, Austria was proved to be effective in avoiding the emergence of society and culture-bound mental illness, which is inherent to large, isolated ethnic communities.

Nakayama, M; Drinkall, S; Sasaki, D

Climate Change, Migration, and Vulnerability: Overview of the Special Issue

Journal Of Disaster Research

https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p1246

The Indian government has set the challenging goal of increasing its electricity capacity six-to eight-fold in the next 30 years in the context of significant capacity shortfalls and a financially ailing electricity sector. The central and state governments are subsidizing renewable energy because of energy security concerns, to promote domestic resources and a diversity of fuel supply. International funds made available through the international climate change regime could potentially provide much needed support to pay the higher costs that most renewable energy requires. This article performs a case study analysis of the history of the development of one renewable energy technology in India - cogeneration of sugarcane waste - focusing on the barriers this technology has faced in the past and now faces, and how well international and domestic efforts have worked to overcome these barriers. The goal of this work is to lend insight into the effective structure of future international support mechanisms being discussed for inclusion under the post-2012 climate change regime. This study finds that bagasse cogeneration has faced layers of informational, technical, regulatory and financial barriers that have changed over time, and differed significantly between the private and cooperative sugar sectors. Each of the programmes designed to support bagasse cogeneration had a role to play in enabling the bagasse cogeneration currently installed, and no single programme would have been successful on its own. Some barriers to the technology needed directed efforts designed to address the specific context of the sugar sector in India; simply subsidizing the technology or putting a price on carbon was not enough. Where climate (global) and development (local) priorities differ, projects that bring about international goals risk running into conflict with other more pressing domestic goals. Interviews at mills attempting to access carbon financing through the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) indicate that additionality-testing is a challenge to the effectiveness of this mechanism. Any effort to exploit the remaining 86% of the estimated national potential for high efficiency bagasse cogeneration will need to address the special financial and political conditions facing cooperative mills.

Haya, B; Ranganathan, M; Kirpekar, S

Barriers to sugar mill cogeneration in India: Insights into the structure of post-2012 climate financing instruments

Climate And Development

https://doi.org/10.3763/cdev.2009.0002

While ongoing climate change requires effective adaptation strategies, decision-making on the scale, timing and location of adaptation measures remains challenging, as the extent and pace of climate change is uncertain. In particular, uncertainty surrounds the success of mitigation strategies and economic and demographic developments. While 'grey' measures, such as dikes and pumping, have been the dominant form of adaptation in the past against inland flooding, Nature-based Solutions are receiving more attention. However, evidence on their cost-effectiveness compared to grey alternatives is still limited. In this article, we develop a real options model that integrates climate change uncertainty as well as flexibility of the timing of investment. We expect that the uncertainty falls over time due to an increase in climate data that becomes available to the decision-maker. The decision-maker learns about climate change from two types of events: inland flooding and meteorological drought. The model is calibrated with data from the Oldambt-Eemskanaal-Dollardboezem water system in the Dutch Province of Groningen. Our results show the potential for Nature-based Solutions to become a viable alternative to dike heightening and pumping in addressing both extreme events. Moreover, we observe that the cost-effectiveness of Nature-based Solutions depends on the maturing time of the ecosystem, the value of land on which the measure is being implemented, and the type of information considered in the investment decision. We show that maturing times of up to nine years make a Nature-based Solution the preferred measure to invest in, even under strong beliefs of severe climate change. When maturing times exceed nine years, the option takes too long to become effective and pumping is preferred. Furthermore, our results show that an increase in the value of land on which a Nature-based Solution is being constructed may substantially reduce its cost-effectiveness. Finally, decision-making flexibility becomes valuable if expected damages from floods and droughts are sufficiently low and the decision-maker learns quickly about climate change.

Vogelsang, LG; Weikard, HP; van Loon-Steensma, JM; Bednar-Friedl, B

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of Nature-based Solutions under climate change uncertainty and learning

Water Resources And Economics

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wre.2023.100224

Progresses made in global responses to climate change shows that adaptation is gradually finding its way into development planning, yet delays are generally expected from competing priorities of several sectors, policy and knowledge challenges. To understand these dynamics, a pathway for enhanced climatic risk communication, which is a form of a non-structural adaptation, was analyzed in Ghana's coastal zones. Two learning platforms, the Community-based Risk Screening Tool for Adaptation and Livelihoods (CRiSTAL), and U-Learning (Theory U-Process)were used to engage the state level policy-maldng process in governing development within coastal zones in the face of increased climatic risks and climate change impacts. Local livelihood priorities showed that a national level development planning framework that excluded local contexts of climatic risks face possible maladaptation. Subsequently the process that was engaged in the local contextualization of climatic risks and development in selected Districts culminated in the consensus framework, Coastal Zone Green Growth (CZGG), informed mostly by concerns over clean energy usage and ecologically compatible use of coastal resources. Therefore the CZGG potentially provides co-benefits for enhanced ecosystem services, livelihoods and adaptation. Thus, it constitutes a denominator for measuring climatic risks and adaptation to potentially inform the policy-making process towards sustainable coastal zone management practices. Except for the desired goals of CZGG being far reaching and futuristic, they overlapped with goals of the adaptation strategies of the local population, which are similar to development goals. Therefore communicating localized contexts of coastal climatic risks of which sea level rise is seen often as remote to planning, could strengthen risk management in integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) and enhance resilience of vulnerable communities. However, this will require the designation of a body which is accustomed to the local issues to facilitate, harmonize and coordinate multi-sector actions and diverse stakeholders' interests for the CZGG to become a reality in contributing to ICZM in Ghana. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dovie, DBK

A communication framework for climatic risk and enhanced green growth in the eastern coast of Ghana

Land Use Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.01.008

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze flood vulnerability vis-a-vis flood-induced health risks, and understand the relationship between them to suggest measures to reduce health risks in Sudan. Design/methodology/approach - This study compares the vulnerability to flood and health consequences in two communities in Aroma. This study compares the vulnerability of Aroma semi-urban vicinity and Tendellei rural village, in Sudan, to flood and health consequences. A set of socioeconomic and health indicators were studied in 251 households. Households were classified according to their calculated vulnerability composite index. The index was validated through comparing the vulnerability values with the level of impact in each household. Findings - About 30 percent of households are highly/very highly vulnerable to flood risk. On the other hand, 41 percent of the rural households and 25 percent of the semi-urban houses are highly/very highly vulnerable to health risks. The main determinants of flood vulnerability are; the number of earning family members, level of education and economic activity of the household's head. The rural households are found to be more vulnerable to health risks while semi-urban households are more vulnerable to flooding. Flood and health vulnerabilities are positively correlated. Factors like urbanization, poverty and education directly affect the vulnerability of communities. Research limitations/implications - The methodology could be strengthened through the running of multi-various regression to relate selected vulnerability indicators to incidence of malaria and diarrhea in each household. Practical implications - The method described in this paper is flexible; applicable and can be reproduced for other areas and risks. Social implications - Vulnerability determinants affect the two communities differently and this necessitates specific consideration when developing policy. The policy should tackle the root causes of vulnerability to cut the vicious circle of poverty, illiteracy and illness. Those root causes should be managed by integrating multi-hazard approaches for effective and efficient interventions. Originality/value - The method described in this paper is original, flexible; applicable and can be reproduced for other areas and risks.

Abbas, HB; Routray, JK

Vulnerability to flood-induced public health risks in Sudan

Disaster Prevention And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-07-2013-0112

This study set out to empirically determine the current state of individual and household adaptation to climate change in the United Kingdom and how policy makers can improve on it. The study utilized both qualitative and quantitative approaches (mixed method). For the quantitative aspect of the study, a quota-sampling technique was employed in the selection of 650 respondents for the study using a well-structured questionnaire. The quota representation was based on age and gender. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and binary logit regression. In addition, qualitative content/topic analysis of an in-depth interview of the respondents was employed in further analyzing why and how policy makers can improve climate change adaptation. Findings from the study indicate the dire need for continued government support in household and individual adaptation in Leeds, and this support should also be encouraged in other cities where government intervention is low. Interventions in the form of subsidies, direct regulations, and public awareness are needed. The implementation of these measures is expected to generate a wide range of additional benefits to most vulnerable groups who should be central to the rapidly expanding climate change research and policy agenda in the United Kingdom. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Evidence shows that periods of extremely cold winters have been perceived to have increased in frequency in the United Kingdom over the years. This points to the need to uncover what policy and behavioral adaptation measures required to improve individual and household adaptation measures to cold spells in the United Kingdom. We utilized both qualitative and quantitative approaches (mixed method) to find out the drivers and hindrances to adaptation against cold spells, using Leeds as a case study. We found out that over 70% of the respondents adopted all of the short-term coping strategies, whereas 55% did not indicate any changes in their behavior in response to cold spells. Also, government support, the prospect of relocation (people's intention of leaving their home), and the high technicalities in installing adaptation tools significantly affect individuals' tendency to adopt long-term coping strategies.

Ume, CO; Onah, O; Adeosun, KP; Nnamdi, OC; Ihedioha, NN; Onyia, C; Idika, EO

Unpacking the Levels of Household and Individual Climate Change Adaptation: Empirical Evidence from Leeds, United Kingdom

Weather Climate And Society

https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0109.1

The agricultural sector is one of the most vulnerable sectors to the impacts of climate change. Between 2015 and 2018, the Western Cape Province of South Africa experienced a multi-year severe drought. Projections show that the Western Cape is likely to experience hotter and drier conditions, with more frequent droughts. Without appropriate adaptation actions, climate change is likely to increasingly constrain agricultural activities in the province. Commercial farmers represent a considerable population of decision-makers, which are fundamental to climate change adaptation. Understanding farmers' perceptions is important to develop effective policy, support structures, and communications. This study aimed to understand wheat farmers' and apple producers' perceptions of climate change and adaptation in the Western Cape, South Africa, and establish whether the recent drought offered lessons for adaptation. Study methods included the use of an online questionnaire as well as several in-depth interviews with farmers and producers. Results showed that most farmers and producers agree that climate change is real and is caused by human activities. Most farmers and producers in the region are already actively (or intend to start) preparing for climate change (69%). In response to climate change, apple producers view on-farm water management (such as irrigation management and water recycling) as the most important strategy. Wheat farmers strategies are focused on crop management (including cultivar selection and conservation agriculture). Many farmers and producers further agreed that they had learnt from the past 2015-2018 drought. Notably, results showed that farmers and producers who rely a great deal on weather forecasts were more likely to feel that their farm's response was effective. Furthermore, it was found that farmers and producers who felt they learned from the drought were also more likely to be actively preparing for climate risks. It is recommended that investments into climate change adaptation focus on research and development, particularly with regard to cultivar development, irrigation management, tailored weather forecasting, and localised risk assessments. Policy should prioritise the more vulnerable farmers and producers while focusing on integrated risk reduction measures which account for multiple stressors.

Theron, SN; Archer, ERM; Midgley, SJE; Walker, S

Exploring farmers' perceptions and lessons learned from the 2015-2018 drought in the Western Cape, South Africa

Journal Of Rural Studies

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2022.09.002

Determinants for choosing climate change adaptation strategies and selecting improved agroforestry practices have rarely been explored, while numerous studies have been conducted on climate change and agroforestry. This paper discusses; local understanding of climate change, climatic impacts, and factors that affect farmers' choices of adaptation strategies, and agroforestry practices. We focused on three districts located in the mid-hills of Nepal, where farmers were adopting agroforestry practices in two forms; traditional and improved practices. We fol-lowed three techniques of social survey; household survey (n = 420), focus group discussions (n = 6), and key informant interviews (n = 24). Almost all farmers of the study areas were experiencing climatic challenges, but only 59.29% of them accepted that the challenges are induced by climate change and, likewise, 55.24% have adopted climate change adaptation measures. Diversifying crop production, shifting farming practices, changing occupation, and emigration were local adaptation strategies. Livelihood improvement, income generation, and food production were the primary motives for adopting agroforestry practices in the study area. Agroforestry as an adaptation measure to climate change was considered secondary by most farmers. Statistical analysis using a logit model revealed that age, education, and habit of growing commercial species significantly influenced farmers adopting climate change adaptation strategies. Likewise, age, education, gender, habit of growing commercial species, and income from tree products significantly influenced the choice of improved agroforestry practices as a better option. Though agroforestry was widely considered a strategy to combat climate change, only some farmers accepted it due to their awareness level. Therefore, education programs such as training, farmer field schools, door-to-door visits, etc., should be intensified to sensitize farmers about climate change and encourage them to adopt improved agroforestry practices. The findings of the study could reinforce local, national, and international allied agencies to design operative actions in the days to come.

Paudel, D; Tiwari, KR; Raut, N; Bajracharya, RM; Bhattarai, S; Sitaula, BK; Thapa, S

What affects farmers in choosing better agroforestry practice as a strategy of climate change adaptation? An experience from the mid-hills of Nepal

Heliyon

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09695

Which of the two climate change adaptation strategies - adjusting or improving farming (defined as Stepping Up) versus reducing or exiting farming (defined as Stepping Out) - provides better developmen-tal outcomes for smallholder farmers? Are the drivers of these two strategies different? Do the outcomes and drivers vary according to farmland holding size? We investigated these unanswered questions, inspired primarily by a widespread but unverified suggestion that stepping out of farming can be a better option for smallholders. We utilised recent survey data from over eight hundred smallholder households located in climatic hazard-prone areas in Bangladesh. We applied a holistic Driver-Strategy-Outcome analytical framework and rigorous statistical methods, including index-based data aggregation, and Structural Equation Modelling with 'mediation' and 'moderation' analyses. Contrary to widespread spec-ulations, we found that Stepping Out had a large negative effect on smallholders' livelihood Outcomes; while Stepping Up had a moderate, but positive effect. The natural-environmental Drivers of Stepping Up and Stepping Out were similar; however, the psychological-institutional Drivers of each differed, with the same factor acting as a driver for one strategy whilst as a deterrent for the other. We found significant 'mediatory' effects of both the adaptation Strategies on Outcomes as well as significant 'moderation' effects of farmland holding size on the Drivers and Outcomes, with the positive effect of Stepping Up observed for smallholders owing lands of <2.5 acres only. We call for relevant policies and interventions to exercise caution in promoting smallholders' exit from agriculture, and to adopt appropriate mitigating measures to manage such a transition. Moreover, smallholder agricultural development initiatives should not discount even the 'smallest of smallholders' and support them through 'diverse and complementary innovations' as well as 'tailored' institutional support services, especially for those living in proximity to hazard hotspots. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Islam, MM; Sarker, MA; Al Mamun, MA; Mamun-ur-Rashid, M; Roy, D

Stepping Up versus Stepping Out: On the outcomes and drivers of two alternative climate change adaptation strategies of smallholders

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105671

The impact of climate change and other environmental disasters have shown a strong link with human migration throughout history. While the decision to migrate in the face of such environmental disasters is clear, questions linked to the non-migration aspirations of people in environmental disaster-prone regions account only for a negligible number of studies. This applies also to the Himalayan region, characterized by a dearth of scientific information on the militating forces of (non)migration. To contribute to address this yawning research gap, this paper poses a fundamental question: what (does not) drive environmental non-migration in Nepal? Specifically, the paper seeks to: (i) discuss the trend of (non-) migration in the context of environmental disasters in Nepal, and (ii) explore the drivers of non-migration decisions in upland, landslide prone areas of Nepal. Besides document analysis, the study relies on qualitative data drawn from five focus group discussions with local community members, complemented by ten key informant interviews to further corroborate the information. Further, eight key experts from ministerial departments and academia were interviewed to generate further information to buttress the results. It explores respondents' knowledge of environmental hazards and what drives their decision to (not) migrate in the face of environmental disasters. Despite exposures to landslides and other linked environmental hazards, we found four key factors that are instrumental in guiding non-migration decisions. First, the intrinsic value placed by the community (linked to their ancestral attachment), including place attachment. Second, social capital (especially social groupings) which drives collective action to manage and overcome the effects of disasters, third, place confidence which guarantees their application of locally adapted survival strategies, and fourth the structural contexts (economical and agricultural values). While this study provides conceptual and empirical information on the much needed subject on environmental non-migration, it makes a succinct request for further quantitative investigations to model the non-migration process and determine clear patterns over the years.

Bhusal, P; Kimengsi, JN; Awasthi, KR

What drives environmental (Non-)migration around the Himalayan Region? Evidence from rural Nepal

World Development Perspectives

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2021.100350

Managing and communicating flood risks necessitates a strong understanding of how people perceive risk. It has become critical to examine risk perception to implement effective disaster risk management (DRM) measures. Socioeconomic determinants have an impact on risk perception, which in turn affects future adaptive capacity and disaster preparedness. First and foremost, this research attempts to determine how Pakistani people in rural areas perceive flood risk, and second, to examine the factors that can influence rural residents' perceptions of flood risk. The data for this study were collected through face-to-face interviews with 600 respondents (household heads) from Charsadda and Nowshera districts that were severely affected by the 2010 flood. A flood risk perception index was developed (using a risk matrix) using relevant attributes on a Likert scale and classified into two categories: high and low perceived risk. Furthermore, a binary regression model was used to examine the influence of socioeconomic and institutional factors on rural households' risk perception. Flood risk was perceived by 67 percent of the total sampled participants in the study regions. The results of binary logistic regression demonstrate that flood risk perception is strongly linked to socioeconomic variables such as age, education, house ownership, family size, past flood experience, and distance from the nearest river source, as well as institutional factors such as access to credit and extreme weather forecast information. The findings of the current study additionally revealed that flood risk perception varied among household heads based on education (1-10 years perceived high flood risk (51.47%)), age (age greater than 40 years perceived high flood risk (52.83%)), and monthly income levels (lower monthly income group perceived high flood risk (73.02%)). The findings of this study shed light on rural households' perception of flood risk and the factors that shape such perceptions. These findings can assist provincial and local disaster management authorities in better understanding flood risk and adopting local actions that could be used to respond to flood and other climate-related disasters.

Shah, AA; Ajiang, C; Khan, NA; Alotaibi, BA; Tariq, MAUR

Flood Risk Perception and Its Attributes among Rural Households under Developing Country Conditions: The Case of Pakistan

Water

https://doi.org/10.3390/w14060992

Empirical evidence of increasing flood damages and the prospect of climatic change has initiated discussions in the flood management community on how to effectively manage flood risks. In the Netherlands, the framework of multi-layer safety (MLS) has been introduced to support this risk-based approach. The MLS framework consists of three layers: (i) prevention, (ii) spatial planning and (iii) evacuation. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate measures in the second layer, such as wet proofing, dry proofing or elevating buildings. The methodology uses detailed land-use data for the area around the city of Rotterdam (up to building level) that has recently become available. The vulnerability of these detailed land-use classes to flooding is assessed using the stage-damage curves from different international models. The methodology is demonstrated using a case study in the unembanked area of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, as measures from the second layer may be particularly effective there. The results show that the flood risk in the region is considerable: EUR 36 million p.a. A large part (almost 60 %) of this risk results from industrial land use, emphasising the need to give this category more attention in flood risk assessments. It was found that building level measures could substantially reduce flood risks in the region because of the relatively low inundation levels of buildings. Risk to residential buildings would be reduced by 40 % if all buildings would be wet-proofed, by 89 % if all buildings would be dry-proofed and elevating buildings over 100 cm would render the risk almost zero. While climate change could double the risk in 2100, such building level measures could easily nullify this effect. Despite the high potential of such measures, actual implementation is still limited. This is partly caused by the lack of knowledge regarding these measures by most Dutch companies and the legal impossibility for municipalities to enforce most of these measures as they would go beyond the building codes established at the national level.

de Moel, H; van Vliet, M; Aerts, JCJH

Evaluating the effect of flood damage-reducing measures: a case study of the unembanked area of Rotterdam, the Netherlands

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0420-z

Purpose Urban flooding in developing countries of the Global South is growing due to extreme rainfall and sea-level rise induced by climate change, as well as the proliferation of impervious, built-up areas resulting from unplanned urbanisation and development. Continuous loss of traditional knowledge related to local water management practices, and the de-valuing of such knowledge that goes hand-in-hand with globalised aspirations, is inhibiting flood resilience efforts. This paper aims to address the need to include traditional water knowledge (TWK) in urban living and development processes in the Global South. Design/methodology/approach This paper commences with a review of existing frameworks that focus on natural resource management, critically assessing two existing frameworks of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK). The assessment of the existing approaches contributes to this paper's development of a novel framework to promote TWK with regard to resilience and risk reduction, specifically for developing flood adaptive strategies, which is the second stage of this paper. Finally, the paper explains how the framework can contribute to the field of urban design and planning using examples from the literature to demonstrate challenges and opportunities related to the adaptation of such a framework. Findings The framework developed in this paper reveals three proposed vertices of TWK, named as place-based landscape knowledge, water use and management and water values. This framework has the potential to produce context-specific knowledge that can contribute to flood-resilient built-environment through urban design and practices. Research limitations/implications The framework developed in this paper reveals three proposed vertices of TWK, named place-based landscape knowledge, water use and management and water values. This framework has the potential to produce context-specific knowledge that can contribute to flood-resilient built-environment through urban design and practices. Originality/value Within the field of TEK research, very few researchers have explored the field of developing flood resilience in an urban context. The proposed TWK framework presented in this paper will help to fill that gap.

Asad, R; Ahmed, I; Vaughan, J; von Meding, J

Traditional water knowledge: challenges and opportunities to build resilience to urban floods

International Journal Of Disaster Resilience In The Built Environment

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-08-2020-0091

We evaluate the spatial heterogeneities of hurricane flood risk along the United States (US.) Atlantic and Gulf coasts under two different climate scenarios (current and future). The flood hazard is presented as the hurricane surge flood level with 1% annual exceedance probability (100-year flood) under the two scenarios, where the future scenario considers the effect of hurricane climatology change and sea level rise towards late-21st-century under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). This hazard information is combined with estimated vulnerability and disaster resilience of coastal communities to map the relative current and future risk employing different risk definitions. Several geographical techniques and spatial distributional models (e.g., spatial autocorrelation, spatial hotspot analysis, and spatial multivariate clustering analysis) are applied to systematically analyze the risk and identify statistically significant hotspots of the highest risk. Most of the high-risk hotspots are found in the Gulf coast region, particularly along the west coast of Florida. However, two out of three risk evaluation approaches also indicate New York City as a risk hotspot under the future climate-showing that the resultant risk is sensitive to the consideration of evaluation factors (i.e., hazard, vulnerability, and resilience). Additionally, we apply a machine-learning algorithm-based spatial multivariate approach to map the spatially distinct groups based on the values of risk, hazard, vulnerability, and resilience. The results show that the counties in the highest risk group (value >3rd quartile, 15% of total counties, including New York City) in the future lack specifically in the community capital and the social components of community resilience. This assessment of coastal risk to hurricane flood has important policy-relevant implications to provide a focus-for-action for risk reduction and resilience enhancement for the US., where 6.5 million households live in the hurricane flood-prone areas. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sajjad, M; Lin, N; Chan, JCL

Spatial heterogeneities of current and future hurricane flood risk along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136704

Between 60% and 80% of global energy is consumed in urban areas and given the projected increase in world's urban population, this share is expected to further increase in the future. Continuity of energy supply in cities is affected by climate change and a growing array of other threats such as cyber attacks, terrorism, technical deficiencies, and market volatility. Determined efforts, acknowledging the interactions and interlinkages between energy and other sectors, are needed to avoid adverse consequences of disruption in energy supply. Resilience thinking is an approach to management of socio-ecological systems that aims to develop an integrated framework for bringing together the (often) fragmented, diverse research on disaster risk management. The literature on urban resilience is immense and still growing. This paper reviews literature related to energy resilience to develop a conceptual framework for assessing urban energy resilience, identify planning and design criteria that can be used for assessing urban energy resilience, and examine the relationship of these criteria with the underlying components of the conceptual framework. In the conceptual framework, it is proposed that in order to be resilient, urban energy system needs to be capable of planning and preparing for, absorbing, recovering from, and adapting to any adverse events that may happen in the future. Integrating these four abilities into the system would enable it to continuously address availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptability as the four sustainability-related dimensions of energy. The paper explains different resilience principles associated with these abilities and sustainability dimensions. Also, different planning and design criteria were extracted from the literature and categorized into five themes: infrastructure; resources; land use, urban geometry and morphology; governance; and socio-demographic aspects and human behavior. Examination of the relationship of these criteria with the underlying components of the conceptual framework highlighted the complexity and multi-faceted nature of energy resilience. Exploration of the relevance of the identified criteria to climate change mitigation and adaptation revealed that most of the identified criteria can provide both mitigation and adaptation benefits. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sharifi, A; Yamagata, Y

Principles and criteria for assessing urban energy resilience: A literature review

Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.03.028

Migration in response to climatic hazards or changes in climatic conditions can unfold in a variety of ways, ranging from barely observable, incremental changes in pre-existing migration flows to abrupt, non-linear population movements. The adoption of migration instead of in situ adaptation responses, and the high degree of variability in potential migration outcomes, in part reflects the presence of thresholds or tipping points within the processes of human-environment interaction through which climate adaptation and migration take place. This article reviews and makes linkages between existing research in climate adaptation, migration system dynamics, residential preferences, and risk perception to identify and explore the functioning and importance of thresholds. Parochial examples from the author's published research on climate adaptation and migration in rural North America are used to illustrate. Six types of thresholds in response to climate hazards are identified: (1) Adaptation becomes necessary; (2) Adaptation becomes ineffective; (3) Substantive changes in land use/livelihoods become necessary; (4) In situ adaptation fails, migration ensues; (5) Migration rates become non-linear; and (6) Migration rates cease to be non-linear. Movement across thresholds is driven by context-specific characteristics of climate events, natural systems, and/or human systems. Transition from incremental to non-linear migration can be accelerated by people's perceptions, by actions of influential individuals or groups, and by changes in key infrastructure, services, or other community assets. Non-linear climate migration events already occur at local and sub-regional scales. The potential for global scale, non-linear population movements later this century depends heavily on future greenhouse gas emission trends. The ability to identify and avoid thresholds that tip climate migration into a non-linear state will be of growing concern to policy makers and planners at all levels in coming decades. This article forms part of a special issue of this journal dedicated to the late Graeme Hugo, and the author draws heavily on past research by Professor Hugo and colleagues.

McLeman, R

Thresholds in climate migration

Population And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-017-0290-2

The study contributes to the development and use of effective climate services for sustainability in agriculture. Specifically, we assessed farming practices of a coastal smallholder farming community in Kilifi County (hereinafter Kilifi), Kenya, to identify barriers to climate services' effective use. The smallholder farmers in Kilifi represent many smallholder farming communities in East Africa whose primary livelihood is rainfed agriculture. First, we carried out an analysis of historical and future rainfall patterns over Kilifi to determine the area's climate patterns. We used a set of five descriptors of rainfall in Kilifi representing seasonal mean daily precipitation and annual precipitation intensity (SDII) and rainy days (R1MM) for the analysis. We assessed March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), and October-December (OND) seasons, corresponding to the three planting seasons in Kilifi. Here, values for the five descriptors in the historical period (1977-2005) were compared with those in the future period (2071-2099) to determine the potential changes in the rainfall patterns. Results showed high year-to-year rainfall variability, relatively low mean daily rainfall per season, high variability within seasons, and uneven distribution of rainfall within seasons. MAM, OND, and SDII showed an increase in the future period while JJA recorded a considerable reduction in rainfall. No discernible changes were recorded for R1MM. Results from a social survey showed that the smallholder farmers in Kilifi were indeed experiencing climate variability and change. While some effort had been made towards building the farmers' adaptive capacity, the interventions were reported to be too sporadic and inadequately coordinated to achieve meaningful results. Through Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), Key-Informant Interviews (KIIs), and literature review, an innovative climate change adaptation model was developed. Thus, this study provides a preliminary framework for strengthening an enabling environment for climate services for agricultural productivity and sustainable development in a changing climate.

Ogega, OM; Gyampoh, BA; Oludhe, C; Koske, J; Kungu, JB

Building on foundations for climate services for sustainable development: A case of coastal smallholder farmers in Kilifi County, Kenya

Climate Services

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100200

Global climate change is likely to pose increasing threats in nearly all sectors and across all sub-regions worldwide (IPCC, 2014). Particularly, extreme weather events (e.g. heavy precipitations), together with changing exposure and vulnerability patterns, are expected to increase the damaging effect of storms, pluvial floods and coastal flooding. Developing climate and adaptation services for local planners and decision makers is becoming essential to transfer and communicate sound scientific knowledge about climate related risks and foster the development of national, regional and local adaptation strategies. In order to analyze the effect of climate change on pluvial flood risk and advice adaptation planning, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed and applied to the urban territory of the municipality of Venice. Based on the integrated analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk, RRA allows identifying and prioritizing targets and sub -areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood risk due to heavy precipitation events in the future scenario 2041-2050. From the early stages of its development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the requests, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders of the North Adriatic region by means of interactive workshops, surveys and discussions. Results of the analysis showed that all targets (i.e. residential, commercial -industrial areas and infrastructures) are vulnerable to pluvial floods due to the high impermeability and low slope of the topography. The spatial pattern of risk mostly reflects the distribution of the hazard and the districts with the higher percentage of receptors' surface in the higher risk classes (i.e. very high, high and medium) are Lido-Pellestrina and Marghera. The paper discusses how risk -based maps and statistics integrate scientific and local knowledge with the final aim to mainstream climate adaptation in the development of risk mitigation and urban plans. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights eserved.

Sperotto, A; Torresan, S; Gallina, V; Coppola, E; Crittoa, A; Marcomini, A

A multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate pluvial floods risk under changing climate: The case study of the municipality of Venice (Italy)

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.150

Insurance plays a crucial role in human efforts to adapt to environmental hazards. Effective insurance can serve as both a measure to distribute, and a method to communicate risk. In order for insurance to fulfil these roles successfully, policy pricing and cover choices must be risk-based and founded on accurate information. This is reliant on a robust evidence base forming the foundation of policy choices. This paper focuses on the evidence available to insurers and emergent innovation in the use of data. The main risk considered is coastal flooding, for which the insurance sector offers an option for potential adaptation, capable of increasing resilience. However, inadequate supply and analysis of data have been highlighted as factors preventing insurance from fulfilling this role. Research was undertaken to evaluate how data are currently, and could potentially, be used within risk evaluations for the insurance industry. This comprised of 50 interviews with those working and associated with the London insurance market. The research reveals new opportunities, which could facilitate improvements in risk-reflective pricing of policies. These relate to a new generation of data collection techniques and analytics, such as those associated with satellite-derived data, IoT (Internet of Things) sensors, cloud computing, and Big Data solutions. Such technologies present opportunities to reduce moral hazard through basing predictions and pricing of risk on large empirical datasets. The value of insurers' claims data is also revealed, and is shown to have the potential to refine, calibrate, and validate models and methods. The adoption of such data-driven techniques could enable insurers to re-evaluate risk ratings, and in some instances, extend coverage to locations and developments, previously rated as too high a risk to insure. Conversely, other areas may be revealed more vulnerable, which could generate negative impacts for residents in these regions, such as increased premiums. However, the enhanced risk awareness generated, by new technology, data and data analytics, could positively alter future planning, development and investment decisions. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Rumson, AG; Hallett, SH

Innovations in the use of data facilitating insurance as a resilience mechanism for coastal flood risk

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.114

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023,https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).

Kretibich, H; Schröter, K; Di Baldassarre, G; Van Loon, AF; Mazzoleni, M; Abeshu, GW; Agafonova, S; AghaKouchak, A; Aksoy, H; Alvarez-Garreton, C; Aznar, B; Balkhi, L; Barendrecht, MH; Biancamaria, S; Bos-Burgering, L; Bradley, C; Budiyono, Y; Buytaert, W; Capewell, L; Carlson, H; Cavus, Y; Couasnon, A; Coxon, G; Daliakopoulos, I; de Ruiter, MC; Delus, C; Erfurt, M; Esposito, G; François, D; Frappart, F; Freer, J; Frolova, N; Gain, AK; Grillakis, M; Grima, JO; Guzmán, DA; Huning, LS; Ionita, M; Kharlamov, M; Khoi, DN; Kieboom, N; Kireeva, M; Koutroulis, A; Lavado-Casimiro, W; Li, HY; LLasat, MC; Macdonald, D; Mård, J; Mathew-Richards, H; McKenzie, A; Mejia, A; Mendiondo, EM; Mens, M; Mobini, S; Mohor, GS; Nagavciuc, V; Ngo-Duc, T; Nguyen, HTT; Nhi, PTT; Petrucci, O; Quan, NH; Quintana-Seguí, P; Razavi, S; Ridolfi, E; Riegel, J; Sadik, MS; Sairam, N; Savelli, E; Sazonov, A; Sharma, S; Sörensen, J; Souza, FAA; Stahl, K; Steinhausen, M; Stoelzle, M; Szalinska, W; Tang, QH; Tian, FQ; Tokarczyk, T; Tovar, C; Tran, TV; van Huijgevoort, MHJ; van Vliet, MTH; Vorogushyn, S; Wagener, T; Wang, YL; Wendt, DE; Wickham, E; Yang, L; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M; Ward, PJ

Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

Earth System Science Data

https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate aspects of flood experience, attitudes and responses of micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in Greece and to indicate a typology of strategies associated with their relative effort to build flood resilience capacity. Design/methodology/approachA qualitative study protocol was used, based on pertinent literature that considers how business entities withstand, adapt and/or recover from non-linear climate change impacts, natural hazards and extreme weather. Data was obtained by conducting semi-structured interviews with 82 MSMEs' owners-managers who had recently experienced flooding. FindingsThe study reports limited activities of MSMEs towards flood resilience capacity despite the threat of relevant disasters. Findings suggest that most owners-managers of these enterprises are not adequately preparing their businesses for the impacts of flooding. Research limitations/implicationsThe findings call for multi-level and dynamic perspectives to be examined in assessing MSME resilience capacity to floods. It is attitudinal, managerial, organisational, behavioural and regulatory (as well as other institutional) factors that merit further investigation. Such an investigation would allow a better understanding as to whether these factors hinder or enable conditions for microeconomic flood preparedness and resilience as well as how they may interact with each other or create feedback loops. Practical implicationsThe study carries managerial implications and policy recommendations in terms of nurturing opportunities towards awareness-raising campaigns for reducing deficits in managerial knowledge and competencies. It also encapsulates practical implications in terms of emphasising supporting mechanisms from key institutional stakeholders to allow MSMEs scan available options they have in effectively reinforcing the business premises from the forces of rising waters. Originality/valueMost of the related studies have examined flood impacts, responses and/or resilience capacity at the household- or community-level. Empirical work that is conducted to ascertain how MSMEs cope with flooding remains thin on the ground. In response to this, the current study and the typology of MSMEs' strategic postures that are suggested seek to contribute to this under-researched topic.

Skouloudis, A; Leal, W; Deligiannakis, G; Vouros, P; Nikolaou, I; Evangelinos, K

Coping with floods: impacts, preparedness and resilience capacity of Greek micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises in flood-affected areas

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-09-2022-0122

It is well established that ecosystems bring meaning and well-being to individuals, often articulated through attachment to place. Degradation and threats to places and ecosystems have been shown to lead to loss of well-being. Here, we suggest that the interactions between ecosystem loss and declining well-being may involve both emotional responses associated with grief, and with observable impacts on mental health. We test these ideas on so-called ecological grief by examining individual emotional response to well-documented and publicized ecological degradation: coral bleaching and mortality in the Great Barrier Reef ecosystem. The study focuses both on one off events of coral loss and the prospect of continuing decline on the self-reported well-being of residents living within the ecosystem, visitors, and those whose livelihood is dependent on the marine resource: data from face-to-face surveys of 1870 local residents, 1804 tourists, and telephone surveys of 91 fishers and 94 tourism operators. We hypothesise that the extent to which individuals experience ecological grief is dependent on the meanings or intrinsic values (such as aesthetic, scientific, or biodiversity-based values), and is moderated by their place attachment, place identity, lifestyle dependence, place-based pride, and derived well-being. Results show that around half of residents, tourists and tourist operators surveyed, and almost one quarter of fishers, report significant Reef Grief. Reef Grief is closely and positively associated with place meanings within resident and tourist populations. By contrast respondents who rated high aesthetic value of the coral ecosystem report lower levels of Reef Grief. These findings have significant implications for how individuals and populations experience ecosystem decline and loss within places that are meaningful to them. Given inevitable cumulative future impacts on ecosystems from committed climate change impacts, understanding and managing ecological grief will become increasingly important. This study seeks to lay conceptual and theoretical foundations to identify how ecological grief is manifest and related to meaningful places and the social distribution of such grief across society.

Marshall, N; Adger, WN; Benham, C; Brown, K; Curnock, MI; Gurney, GG; Marshall, P; Pert, PL; Thiault, L

Reef Grief: investigating the relationship between place meanings and place change on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

Sustainability Science

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-019-00666-z

Climate change is expected to bring higher temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns and in many places increased frequency and severity of extreme weather. Climate change is slated to affect the global food equation both on the supply and demand side as well as local level food systems where small farm communities often depend on local and their own production. As climate change has become more pronounced, the risk to land-based food security faced by many of the world's poor, such as rural communities in Ethiopia and Niger, seems to have become more intense and less predictable. To avoid food insecurity in response to climatic and other stressors, adaptation by small-scale, subsistence farms needs to be accelerated. To effectively intervene to do so, there is a need to understand adaptive behavior in terms of its drivers and its relation with welfare outcomes such as food security. In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework of risk and adaptation, use regression and cluster analysis and the most recent version of the Living Standards Measurement Surveys data for rural areas in Ethiopia and Niger, to advance our understanding. We find that adaptation is associated with lower food insecurity in Ethiopia but not in Niger. Formal education appears as a central element of adaptive capacity and is associated with both adaptive production and income strategies. Female-headed households are much less adapted to a changing climate. Perceived risk based on past hazard experience is crucial for adaptation. Results from the cluster analysis confirm that spatial poverty traps exist. To maintain or enhance welfare in the short term and resilience in the long run in the face of a changing climate, policy makers would do well to focus on micro-regions identified as highly food insecure and build adaptive capacity through, for example, gender inclusive education interventions. (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Wouterse, F; Andrijevic, M; Schaeffer, M

The microeconomics of adaptation: Evidence from smallholders in Ethiopia and Niger

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105884

Urban ecological vulnerability is measured on the basis of ecological sensitivity and resilience based on the concept analysis of vulnerability. GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) methods are used, supported by the spatial analysis tools of GIS, to define different levels of vulnerability for areas of the urban ecology. These areas are further classified into different types of regulatory zones. Taking the city of Hefei in China as the empirical research site, this study uses GIS-MCDA, including the index system, index weights and overlay rules, to measure the degree of its ecological vulnerability on the GIS platform. There are eight indices in the system. Raking and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methods are used to calculate index weights according to the characteristics of the index system. The integrated overlay rule, including selection of the maximum value, and weighted linear combination (WLC) are applied as the overlay rules. In this way, five types of vulnerability areas have been classified as follows: very low vulnerability, low vulnerability, medium vulnerability, high vulnerability and very high vulnerability. They can be further grouped into three types of regulatory zone of ecological green line, ecological grey line and ecological red line. The study demonstrates that ecological green line areas are the largest (53.61% of the total study area) and can be intensively developed; ecological grey line areas (19.59% of the total area) can serve as the ecological buffer zone, and ecological red line areas (26.80%) cannot be developed and must be protected. The results indicate that ecological green line areas may provide sufficient room for future urban development in Hefei city. Finally, the respective regulatory countermeasures are put forward. This research provides a scientific basis for decision-making around urban ecological protection, construction and sustainable development. It also provides theoretical method references for future research into urban ecological vulnerability, including the introduction of GIS-MCDA methods into the field of urban ecological vulnerability, which expands the application for these techniques.

Zhang, XR; Wang, ZB; Lin, J

GIS Based Measurement and Regulatory Zoning of Urban Ecological Vulnerability

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su7089924

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to discuss how, despite increasing data availability from a wide range of sources unlocks unprecedented opportunities for disaster risk reduction, data interoperability remains a challenge due to a number of barriers. As a first step to enhancing data interoperability for disaster risk reduction is to identify major barriers, this paper presents a case study on data interoperability in disaster risk reduction in Europe, linking current barriers to the regional initiative of the European Science and Technology Advisory Group. Design/methodology/approach In support of Priority 2 (Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk) of the Sendai Framework and SDG17 (Partnerships for the goals), this paper presents a case study on barriers to data interoperability in Europe based on a series of reviews, surveys and interviews with National Sendai Focal Points and stakeholders in science and research, governmental agencies, non-governmental organizations and industry. Findings For a number of European countries, there remains a clear imbalance between long-term disaster risk reduction and short-term preparation and the dominant role of emergency relief, response and recovery, pointing to the potential of investments in ex ante measures with better inclusion and exploitation of data. Originality/value Modern society is facing a digital revolution. As highlighted by the International Council of Science and the Committee on Data for Science and Technology, digital technology offers profound opportunities for science to discover unsuspected patterns and relationships in nature and society, on scales from the molecular to the cosmic, from local health systems to global sustainability. It has created the potential for disciplines of science to synergize into a holistic understanding of the complex challenges currently confronting humanity; the Sustainable Development Goals are a direct reflectance of this. Interdisciplinary is obtained with integration of data across relevant disciplines. However, a barrier to realization and exploitation of this potential arises from the incompatible data standards and nomenclatures used in different disciplines. Although the problem has been addressed by several initiatives, the following challenge still remains: to make online data integration a routine.

Migliorini, M; Hagen, JS; Mihaljevic, J; Mysiak, J; Rossi, JL; Siegmund, A; Meliksetian, K; Sapir, DG

Data interoperability for disaster risk reduction in Europe

Disaster Prevention And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-09-2019-0291

Bangladesh, being the world's most climate-vulnerable country, is affected by plenty of climate-related hazards every year, mostly along its south-western coast. As a consequence, many people relocated from these regions' worst-affected neighborhoods to Khulna city, and began to live as slum dwellers. They faced a variety of issues in these informal settlements, particularly regarding water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) facilities and livelihood options, but no research has been conducted in Bangladesh. With an emphasis on WASH services and livelihood prospects, this study therefore aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges/hardships and needs of climate migrants living in urban slums in both general and COVID-19 contexts. Qualitative methods were applied to collect data from the climate migrants of slums in five wards (3, 12, 17, 21, and 30) of the Khulna City Corporation. Nine focus group discussions and four key informant interviews were conducted to collect the data from primary (community people) and secondary (local government and non-government and community-based organizations officials) stakeholders. The thematic analysis was used to analyze the data. The findings revealed that climate migrants experienced significant water scarcity, insufficient drainage systems, a lack of toilets, tube wells, and bathing facilities, inadequate hygiene management, a lack of core skills required for urban jobs, low payment, and an income shortage. Similarly, sustainable drinking water sources, sanitary toilets with WASH blocks, personal hygiene materials and awareness building, skill development for diverse livelihood opportunities, and income-generating capacity development were their top priorities. Overall, the findings of this study provided a holistic overview of the challenges/hardships and needs of climate migrants in urban slums regarding WASH services and livelihood opportunities. The authorities should intervene and develop policy initiatives to alleviate the hardships and meet the needs of climate migrants.

Khan, MA

Livelihood, WASH related hardships and needs assessment of climate migrants: evidence from urban slums in Bangladesh

Heliyon

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09355

The urban water supply system environment is becoming more complicated and unpredictable than ever before in the context of global climate change and expanding urbanization. Existing studies have adopted either static or dynamic approaches to assess the resilience of water supply systems without combining the two. Previous literature mostly establishes rigid quantitative metrics for resilience assessment, often without depicting the dynamics and adaptability of system resilience. For example, these studies usually fail to provide a critical point for identifying system resilience. To accurately describe the dynamics and adaptability of water supply system resilience under uncertain scenarios, in this study, we constructed a comprehensive framework based on the qualitative assessment of the input parameters, combining static and dynamic assessment, with the latter playing a dominant role based on the system perspective of pressure-state-influence-response. Taking Qingdao as a case study, we combined this framework with the system resilience theory, and statically assessed the five types of capitals and three attributes of resilience with the capital portfolio approach (CPA). Then, we dynamically assessed the resilience of urban water supply systems and identified critical points with the dynamic socio-technical model coupled with system resilience and the fitting analysis method. The results are as follows: (1) the static assessment results demonstrate an imbalanced development in the levels of the five types of capitals (financial capital, management efficiency, infrastructure, available water resources, and adaptation) and three attributes (robustness, recoverability, and adaptability) in the water supply systems of Qingdao. (2) The dynamic assessment results show that the current resilience trajectory of the water supply systems in Qingdao is that of a city in transition. (3) The fitting analysis shows that robustness (RB) has a linear relationship with resilience, recoverability (RE) has a non-linear relationship with resilience, and the critical points are RB = 0.70 and RE = 1.20. The research findings provide a reference for studying resilience mechanisms, internal attribute relationships, and resilience enhancement measures of urban water supply systems.

Liu, JN; Shao, ZG; Wang, W

Resilience Assessment and Critical Point Identification for Urban Water Supply Systems under Uncertain Scenarios

Water

https://doi.org/10.3390/w13202939

Extreme weather events have affected the environment and water resources in Taiwan for the last two decades. Heavy rainfall, typhoons, and rising sea levels have caused severe flooding along the Southwest Coast in Taiwan. Yunlin County, an important agricultural region, will be significantly affected by climate changes, especially in coastal areas with severe land subsidence. Therefore, using the concept of the water footprint and questionnaire surveys, this study examines personal water footprints in townships in Yunlin County to explore the effectiveness and sustainability of water management. The purpose of the water footprint concept is to quantify environmental burdens imposed by individuals' demand for water. An individual water footprint involves direct and indirect water usage that is associated with personal habits. Analytical results show that the most individual water consumption is highest along coastal areas, such as Kouhu and Taixi, and mountainous areas, such as Gukeng, Douliu, and Linnei. Furthermore, one-way ANOVA of individuals' daily water footprint reveals that individual water footprints vary significantly among Douliu, Gukeng, and Mailiao. The mean daily water footprint per capita in Douliu and Gukeng significantly exceeds that in Mailiao. This study considers the location quotients of industries in these three townships, which indicate that the location quotients of the accommodation and food and beverage industries in Douliu and Gukeng significantly exceed those of Mailiao. The individual virtual water use that is associated with the aforementioned industries is large. Clearly, individual water use habits in townships are related to the industry type. Douliu and Gukeng are major centers of the tertiary industry, which has a higher location quotient than in Mailiao. Mailiao is a major center of manufacturing as a secondary industry. Therefore, flourishing regions with tertiary industries have high virtual water consumption. These findings suggest that personal water use habits can explain why personal water footprints are larger in Yunlin County than in other counties in Taiwan.

Lee, YJ; Tung, CM; Lee, PR; Lin, SC

Personal Water Footprint in Taiwan: A Case Study of Yunlin County

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su8111112

Youth articulations of climate change injustice are experiencing an unprecedented moment in the spotlight as, inspired by Greta Thunberg, young people around the world take to the streets demanding justice for their generation in the face of climate emergency. Formal opportunities for youth voices to be heard in environmental governance are slim, although the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) offers a rare opportunity for youth to share their perspectives as one of nine civil society constituencies: YOUNGO. Recent research in Global Environmental Change has called for empirical exploration of justice claims-making by different stakeholders to develop understanding of how justice is conceptualised and negotiated in climate change governance spaces. To date, climate justice claims from youth have not been explored in the academic literature. This paper draws upon rich, ethnographic, longitudinal data on the evolution of justice claims made by a group of youth participants in the UNFCCC to contribute to this empirical gap. In our research, a UK-based case study organisation and long-established member of YOUNGO was studied between 2015 and 2018, including observation of their participation at the 21st, 22nd and 23rd Conferences of the Parties. We find that youth participants first articulated injustices based on perceived future risks to their generation but, over time, switched to solidarity claims about injustices experienced by other groups in the present. Whilst laudable, this impedes their mandate as representatives of younger generations. We also make three theoretical contributions to environmental justice theory. First we expand participation justice theory to both the visible structures of participation (procedural justice) and the informal rules and discourses shaping participation (representation justice). Second we demonstrate the importance of both external and self-recognition for the articulation of justice claims. Third we clarify the relationship between power and justice claim-making, proposing that we must look beneath what is articulated to shed light on the exercise of ideological power that shapes the framing and claiming of justice in environmental governance spaces.

Thew, H; Middlemiss, L; Paavola, J

Youth is not a political position: Exploring justice claims-making in the UN Climate Change Negotiations

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102036

This study compares the scientifically observed spatiotemporal climate variability with farmer perceptions. A survey of 381 farmers and ten focus group discussions (FGDs) were used to collect data from ten coastal subdistricts. We hypothesized that any gap between farmer perceptions and meteorological data could be due to variations in their individual characteristics. An unsupervised clustering algorithm was used to categorise the farmers into good and poor perception clusters to test the hypothesis. The climatic data showed a low (0.45 degrees C) spatial difference of the mean temperature (1988-2017) among the visited locations. Annual rainfall variations between the western and eastern coastal areas could be more than 100 cm, making the eastern coasts wetter. The FGD outputs were mostly cognate with meteorological data that the recent (2013-2017) average temperature was higher (except early winter) and, in general, rainfall was lower than that of 1998-2002. Compared to the meteorological data, greater imperfect perceptions of farmers were observed in case of rainfall and winter temperature. This resulted in a gap between the meteorological data and farmer perceptions at the household level. Among the sampled farmers, only 30% had meteorologically consistent perceptions of average-, summer- and winter-temperature, and rainfall. The cluster analysis has divided the farmers into good perception (41.2%) and poor perception (58.8%) clusters. Greater proportions of the western coastal farmers were clustered in the good perception group than that of the eastern parts. A higher accuracy of the perceptions was found among the better-off farmers who were characterized by younger age, better education, smaller family size, richer economic status, larger farm size, more affiliation with non-farm jobs, users of more communication media, closer to the marketplaces and more distant from the sea. The worse-off households, in particular, require policy and extension support to update their understanding of climate change to facilitate adaptation strategies. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hasan, MK; Kumar, L

Meteorological data and farmers' perception of coastal climate in Bangladesh

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135384

Climate change induces various risks for supply chains of manufacturing firms. However, surveys have suggested that only a minority of firms conducts strategic adaptations, which we define as anticipatory and target-oriented action with the purpose of increasing resilience to climate change. While several barrier-centered studies have investigated the causality of non-adaptation in industry, the examined barriers are often not problem-specific. Furthermore, it has been shown that even in cases when managers perceive no barriers to adaptation at all, strategic adaptations may still not be conducted. On this background, the present analysis focuses on the logic of adaptive inaction, which we conceive, in particular, as inaction with regard to strategic adaptations. Adopting an action-theoretical perspective, the study examines (a) which aspects may shape the rationality of adaptive inaction among managers, (b) which more condensed challenges of conducting strategic adaptations emerge for managers, and (c) how the theoretical propositions can be tested. For this purpose, the study employs an exploratory approach. Thus, hypotheses on such aspects are explored, which may shape the rationality of adaptive inaction among managers. Subsequently, predictions are inferred from the theoretical propositions, which allow testing their empirical relevance. Methodologically, the hypotheses are explored by reexamining existing explanatory approaches from literature based on a set of pretheoretical assumptions, which include notions of bounded rationality. As a result, the study proposes 13 aspects which may constrain managers in conducting adaptations in such a way, which serves the economic utility of the firm. By condensing these aspects, 4 major challenges for managers are suggested: the challenges of (a) conducting long-term adaptations, of (b) conducting adaptations at an early point in time, of (c) conducting adaptations despite uncertain effects of the measures, and of (d) conducting adaptations despite cross-tier dependencies in supply chains. Finally, the study shows how the propositions can be tested and outlines a research agenda based on the developed theoretical suggestions.

Meinel, U; Schüle, R

The Difficulty of Climate Change Adaptation in Manufacturing Firms: Developing an Action-Theoretical Perspective on the Causality of Adaptive Inaction

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su10020569

Australia is currently experiencing climate change effects in the form of higher temperatures and more frequent extreme events, such as floods. Floods are its costliest form of natural disaster accounting for losses estimated at over $300 million per annum. This article presents an historical case study of climate adaptation of an Australian town that is subject to frequent flooding. Charleville is a small, inland rural town in Queensland situated on an extensive flood plain, with no significant elevated areas available for relocation. The study aimed to gain an understanding of the vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity of this community by studying the 2008 flood event. Structured questionnaires were administered in personal interviews in February 2010 to householders and businesses affected by the 2008 flood, and to institutional personnel servicing the region (n = 91). Data were analysed using appropriate quantitative and qualitative techniques. Charleville was found to be staunchly resilient, with high levels of organisation and cooperation, and well-developed and functioning social and institutional networks. The community is committed to remaining in the town despite the prospect of continued future flooding. Its main vulnerabilities included low levels of insurance cover (32% residents, 43% businesses had cover) and limited monitoring data to warn of impending flooding. Detailed flood modelling and additional river height gauging stations are needed to enable more targeted evacuations. Further mitigation works (e.g., investigate desilting Bradley's Gully and carry out an engineering assessment) and more affordable insurance products are needed. Regular information on how residents can prepare for floods and the roles different organisations play are suggested. A key finding was that residents believe they have a personal responsibility for preparation and personal mitigation activities, and these activities contribute substantially to Charleville's ability to respond to and cope with flood events. More research into the psychological impacts of floods is recommended. Charleville is a valuable representation of climate change adaptation and how communities facing natural disasters should organise and operate.

Keogh, DU; Apan, A; Mushtaq, S; King, D; Thomas, M

Resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity of an inland rural town prone to flooding: a climate change adaptation case study of Charleville, Queensland, Australia

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9791-y

INFORM Risk Index is a global indicator-based disaster risk assessment tool that combines hazards, exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity indicators with the purpose to support humanitarian crisis management decisions considering the current climate and population. In this exploratory study, we extend the Index to include future climate change and population projections using RCP 8.5 climate projections of coastal flood, river flood and drought, and SSP3 and SSP5 population projections for the period 2036 to 2065. For the three hazards considered, annually 1.3 billion people (150% increase), 1.8 billion people (249% increase) and 1.5 billion people (197% increase) in the mid-21st century are projected to be exposed under the 2015, SSP3 and SSP5 population estimates, respectively. Drought shows the highest exposure levels followed by river flood and then coastal flood, with some regional differences. The largest exposed population is projected in Asia, while the largest percent changes are projected in Africa and Oceania. Countries with largest current and projected risk including non-climatic factors are generally located in Africa, West and South Asia and Central America. An uncertainty analysis of the extended index shows that it is generally robust and not influenced by the methodological choices. The projected changes in risk and coping capacity (vulnerability) due to climate change are generally greater than those associated with population changes. Countries in Europe, Western and Northern Asia and Africa tend to show higher reduction levels in vulnerability (lack of coping capacity) required to nullify the adverse impacts of the projected amplified hazards and exposure. The required increase in coping capacity (decreased vulnerability) can inform decision-making processes on disaster risk reduction and adaptation options to maintain manageable risk levels at global and national scale. Overall, the extended INFORM Risk Index is a means to integrate Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation policy agendas to create conditions for greater policy impact, more efficient use of resources and more effective action in protecting life, livelihoods and valuable assets.

Marzi, S; Mysiak, J; Essenfelder, AH; Pal, JS; Vernaccini, L; Mistry, MN; Alfieri, L; Poljansek, K; Marin-Ferrer, M; Vousdoukas, M

Assessing future vulnerability and risk of humanitarian crises using climate change and population projections within the INFORM framework

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102393

The need for increased disaster resilience planning, especially at the community level, as well as the need to address sustainability are clear; these dual objectives have been deemed national priorities in a number of recent US Executive Orders. Major global climate agreements, (i.e., the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, Paris Climate Agreement, and the Sustainable Development Goals) all emphasize the need to integrate disaster resilience and climate risks with continued sustainable development concerns. Current ways of assessing synergies and trade-offs across planning for disaster resilience and sustainability in investment projects that impact communities are limited. The driving research question in this paper is how researchers and practitioners may better express relative categories of co-benefits to meet this need. We draw upon the categorization of some co-benefits as contributing to the resilience dividend, which has helped communication across fields and created bridges from research to practical on-the-ground planning in recent years. Furthermore, we leverage the growing focus on the need to recognize the role of narratives in driving decisions about how and where to invest, which elucidates the inherent value of archetypes that resonate across stakeholders and disciplines to describe investments that may meet multiple objectives. We introduce the concept of a resilience windfall as an unexpected or sudden gain or advantage of resilience planning to be conceptualized alongside resilience dividends. We then assess the practicality of discerning resilience windfalls across various projects that have aspects of both resilience and sustainability. We recount five narrative vignettes that demonstrate disaster resilience interventions and associated resilience dividends and windfalls. This effort highlights the importance of considering resilience dividends and resilience windfalls during the planning, execution, and evaluation phases of disaster resilience projects. These typologies provide an important contribution to the integration agenda between disaster resilience, climate risks, and sustainable development. There are policy implications of framing incentives for interventions that address both disaster resilience and long-term sustainability objectives as well as encouraging robust tracking of both resilience dividends and windfalls.

Helgeson, J; O'Fallon, C

Resilience Dividends and Resilience Windfalls: Narratives That Tie Disaster Resilience Co-Benefits to Long-Term Sustainability

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13084554

Climate-induced floods are increasing in Africa. The need to evolve framework for adaptation to climate change impact (CCI) among flood-prone fish farmers necessitated this study. Based on availability, 60 farming active flood-experienced fish farmers were purposively selected from flood-prone (Gulu and Kibuku) regions in climate hotspot Uganda. These were assessed for CCI adaptation tendencies in their socioeconomics and farming operation/techniques (FOI) indices, CCI awareness, CCI adaptation strategies, and perceived required interventions (RIs) using structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed through descriptive and multivariate regression tools. Respondents were mostly male, adults, educated, Christian, married, medium-sized family, social group members, 1-5 years' experience, medium-sized farms, and government trained. Income was 1.0-6.0 million Ugx/year. In FOI, semi-intensive culture system, use of rainwater plus groundwater, small-sized (< 0.5 ha) ponds, ponds possession of inlets and outlets, seasonal farming and mixed culture/farming dominated. Most respondents were aware of CCI, while erratic rainfall with floods and prolonged drought mostly impacted farming. AS-Adaptation Strategy were changed stocking time and livelihood diversification. Communication technology and social group's membership enhanced adaptation, while inadequate awareness constrains adaptation. Respondents' RI(s) were tree planting, irrigation and pond perimeter trenching. Gender, government training, farm size, water sources and presence of inlet and outlets in ponds (FOI) predicted adaptation (R = 0.802, R-2 = 0.64, P < 0.05). Some socioeconomic, technical and awareness indices could assist CCI flexibility. However, the statistically significant predictors of adaptation, identified adaptive strategies, constraints to adaptation and required interventions could be integrated into a framework for effective CCI adaptation for sustainable fish farming in flood-prone scenarios.

Oyebola, OO; Efitre, J; Musinguzi, L; Falaye, AE

Potential adaptation strategies for climate change impact among flood-prone fish farmers in climate hotspot Uganda

Environment Development And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01183-1

As global changes continue, the repercussions in Africa remain profound. This is reflected notably in food and water crises across Africa. This work examines the readiness of Africa to climate change adaptation through a newly developed readiness index (ClimAdaptCap Index). In fact, this work shifts the readiness debate from emotional descriptions that currently flood academic scholarship to a more pragmatic evidence-based approach in assessing readiness. Readiness for climate change adaptation is driven by the intensity of climate forcing and adaptive capacity. The historical climate score data or precipitation and temperature for the period 1991-2016 were culled from the World Bank Climate Portal. The historical adaptive capacity score data included proxies such as poverty and literacy rates from 1991 to 2016 were collected from the World Bank and Macrotrends. The climate data were normalized using the normalization function to enhance interpretation, comparison, and fusion into the index. Missing poverty and literacy rate data were estimated by linear interpolation of the poverty and literacy rate data. The ClimAdaptCap Index was developed to compute readiness. This index is the first of its kind and will serve as a flagship for assessing readiness for climate change adaptation as it is highly adaptable to different contexts. This work's first-ever maps of readiness show that North and Southern Africa are the readiest for climate change adaptation under historical climate and literacy and poverty conditions. West Africa is the least ready while Middle and East Africa are in the middle. Consistent is that readiness has a positive correlation with literacy rates and an inverse one with poverty rates. In addition, with readiness scores of between 0.35 and 0.39 for all the regions with a maximum potential score of 1, this work has shown that the level of readiness in Africa is generally low, and there is a very small variation between the different regions. In addition, climate change adaptation will highly be influenced by both climatic and non-climatic indicators. The developed readiness index adequately simulates readiness to climate change adaptation in Africa and complements previous frameworks of adaptation preparedness.

Epule, TE; Chehbouni, A; Dhiba, D; Moto, MW

The Readiness Index for Climate Change Adaptation in Africa: The Role of Climate and Adaptive Capacity Proxies

Applied Sciences-Basel

https://doi.org/10.3390/app11209413

Pakistan is one of the most climate change- and natural disaster-affected country of the world where livelihood and lives of inhabitants are often affected due to these disasters. In the scenario of various disasters and risks, flood disasters are the most recurrent hazards that cause Bait households' livelihood to be more vulnerable. Hence, this research work has focused to investigate livelihood vulnerability of flood-prone Bait households in southern Punjab of Pakistan. This study used multistage sampling technique for collection of the cross-sectional data of 398 flood disasters vulnerable Bait household's respondents from three high-risk flood-prone districts Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur, and Rahim Yar Khan. Face-to-face interview procedure and welldeveloped pre-tested questionnaire were used for data collection in this research work. This study applied vulnerability framework of LVI-IPCC and LVI in the direction of comparing the level of vulnerabilities in preferred three Bait district households. Empirical estimates of LVI major components and framework of IPCC vulnerability have indicated Bait households of Muzaffargarh more vulnerable owing to higher exposure and sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity than other districts. In contrast to other districts, Muzaffargarh households have investigated more vulnerable to flood disasters more particularly in LVI sub-components such as health (0.460), water (0.360), and food (0.515) access. These research findings will be helpful to policymakers to work out and put into practice effectual programs and strategies such as constructing more water reserves, developing overhead infrastructure, easy access of institutional loans, and generating off-farm income sources. These local-based feasible measures will be helpful for native inhabitants to reduce frequency of floods in the direction of lessened vulnerability and increased resilience via recovering generally the livelihood of vulnerable Bait households in Punjab Pakistan and particularly the district Muzaffargarh.

Ahmad, D; Afzal, M

Flood hazards and livelihood vulnerability of flood-prone farm-dependent Bait households in Punjab, Pakistan

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16443-4

Social vulnerability assessments are intended to help mitigate or prevent adverse socio-economic effects of environmental hazards on human societies. In this study, we monitored the change of social vulnerability to multiple environmental hazards over a 20-year (1997-2017) period in Iran and provide a prediction of social vulnerability for 2030 under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Following validation of two social vulnerability index (SoVI) values based on Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and a weighed method using observed county-level disaster outcomes, social vulnerability to four environmental variables or risk factors (i.e., drought, flood, landslide, and earthquake) was evaluated with 32 socio-economic values using the weighted method. Social vulnerability was strongly correlated with its three dimensions (i.e., exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), and each dimension was strongly correlated with its constituent variables. Results showed that despite improved adaptive capacity between 1997 and 2017, simultaneously increased sensitivity and exposure increased social vulnerability spatially unevenly throughout the country, with greater increases in northern and northeastern than in central and southeastern counties. Extrapolating socio-economic variables and accounting for projected increases in drought severity is expected to increase the social vulnerability of the country by ~27%, with forty-three (11%) mostly northern, northwestern, and northeastern counties with a combined population of ~37 million people (46% of the current Iranian population) exposed to high to very high levels of vulnerability by 2030. Adaptation programs to enhance the resilience following deteriorating socio-economic conditions and climate change-induced droughts in these counties may require better water management strategies to enhance water security. Given the socio-economic conditions of the country and international sanctions, programs should be flanked by more balanced investment in less developed and more vulnerable counties to increase economic and social prosperity and prevent mass migration to more developed areas. This major challenge necessitates more accurate economic planning, development of investment, and improved international relations.

Mafi-Gholami, D; Zenner, EK; Jaafari, A

Mapping recent (1997-2017) and future (2030) county-level social vulnerability to socio-economic conditions and natural hazards throughout Iran

Journal Of Cleaner Production

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131841

This paper attempts to assess the vulnerability to river bank erosion of human communities in different mouzas of selected blocks of Diara sub division of Malda District of India. A primary household survey has been done to collect data on socio demographic profile, livelihood strategy, health, food, water, social network, natural disaster and river bank erosion indicators which were selected for Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and Livelihood Vulnerability Index-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI-IPCC) analyses to predict and compare the vulnerability of mouzas currently suffering from frequent flooding, river bank erosion and embankment breaching on an annual basis. Secondary data are collected from the Human Development Report of Malda district; Regional Agriculture office and analyzed through relevant charts, diagrams and calculating index values. A GPS survey has been conducted to identify locations of affected mouzas due to river bank erosion. The results indicate that the study area has experienced rise in water level, higher amount of water discharge, riverbank line change, constant land loss, embankment breaching and changing land use, which have had impact on vulnerability, particularly of poorer riverine people. From the result of both LVI and LVI- IPCC, high to moderate vulnerability condition has existed within the selected mouzas. The high vulnerable mouzas are Dharampur, Manikchak, Kesarpur, Mirpur, Mathurapur, Jot Bhabani and relatively less vulnerable mouzas are Suksena, Duani Tafir and Paschim Narayanpur in respect to both indices. The poor conditions of LVI components of the selected mouzas in the study area make them more expose and sensitive and decrease their adaptive capacity. These findings enable policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategies and programs to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience by improving the livelihoods of the vulnerable riverine community of all other parts in India as well as world.

Majumdar, S; Das, A; Mandal, S

River bank erosion and livelihood vulnerability of the local population at Manikchak block in West Bengal, India

Environment Development And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-02046-z

The years-long negotiations on loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change impacts reached a milestone with the adoption of the Paris Agreement, sanctioning the permanence of the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) created in 2013. The WIM aims at advancing knowledge gathering, coordination and support to address L&D associated with extreme and slow onset events in vulnerable developing countries (Decision 2/CP.19). Despite being among the most controversial issues to be recently treated in climate change negotiation, L&D has attracted little attention in the field of international relations. This paper aims at addressing this gap by reconstructing the emergence and evolution of the negotiating positions on L&D of developing and developed countries. It employs a critical discourse analytical approach and builds on Fairclough's three-dimensional framework for critical discourse analysis, taking decision 2/CP.19 as the core communicative event. Consistently, the decision is analysed at three different levels: as a text (micro-scale); as a discursive practice (meso-scale); and as a social practice (macro-scale). The analysis makes use of a wide range of materials including previous decisions, High Level Segment statements and Parties submissions. It reconstructs Parties' conflicting views on the positioning of L&D vis-a-vis the adaptation space (L&D as a part of, or as beyond adaptation) and the scientific, ethical and legal arguments employed to support these standpoints. It highlights, in particular, the strategic importance which the compensation argument' had in determining developing countries' capacity to influence the UNFCCC process up to the inclusion of a specific article on L&D in the Paris Agreement. While calls for compensation might have lost momentum as a result of the Warsaw and Paris talks, the paper argues that their potential is far from exhausted. They in fact imply a more general request for climate justice which the UNFCCC has not yet addressed.

Calliari, E

Loss and damage: a critical discourse analysis of Parties' positions in climate change negotiations

Journal Of Risk Research

https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2016.1240706

Climate change is expected to adversely affect agricultural production in Africa. Because agricultural production remains the main source of income for most rural communities in the region, adaptation of the agricultural sector is imperative to protect the livelihoods of the poor and to ensure food security. Abetter understanding of farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and the decision-making process is important to inform policies aimed at promoting successful adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector. Using data from a survey of 1800 farm households in South Africa and Ethiopia, this study presents the adaptation strategies used by farmers in both countries and analyzes the factors influencing the decision to adapt. We find that the most common adaptation strategies include: use of different crops or crop varieties, planting trees, soil conservation, changing planting dates, and irrigation. However, despite having perceived changes in temperature and rainfall, a large percentage of farmers did not make any adjustments to their farming practices. The main barriers to adaptation cited by farmers were lack of access to credit in South Africa and lack of access to land, information, and credit in Ethiopia. A probit model is used to examine the factors influencing farmers' decision to adapt to perceived climate changes. Factors influencing farmers' decision to adapt include wealth, and access to extension, credit, and climate information in Ethiopia; and wealth, government farm support, and access to fertile land and credit in South Africa. Using a pooled dataset, an analysis of the factors affecting the decision to adapt to perceived climate change across both countries reveals that farmers were more likely to adapt if they had access to extension, credit, and land. Food aid, extension services, and information on climate change were found to facilitate adaptation among the poorest farmers. We conclude that policy-makers must create an enabling environment to support adaptation by increasing access to information, credit and markets, and make a particular effort to reach small-scale subsistence farmers, with limited resources to confront climate change. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bryan, E; Deressa, TT; Gbetibouo, GA; Ringler, C

Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2008.11.002

Objective The Lighthouse Project (2017-2018) explored the role that faith-based organizations (FBOs) might play as resilience hubs for climate-related stresses and extreme weather emergencies in disadvantaged urban environments of three cities. This paper discusses the role that public health played in these initiatives and makes an appeal for more participatory, community-engaged public health in light of the persistent gaps in its approach to equitable climate change preparedness. Methods Pilots were initiated in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA): Brampton's Emergency Managers offered pre-selected FBO volunteers specialized training to be part of the city's emergency response in establishing FBO sites as emergency muster stations. An environmental organization in Hamilton explored how its existing networks could rally around a local social resilience challenge, and a community organizer in Toronto undertook network building to support mostly newcomer populations in one inner-city neighbourhood. All pilots used a mix of cold calling, workshops, municipal presentations, and participation in local programming and public events. Two convened local working groups. Results By the end of the pilot, Brampton's Emergency Management Office had made one contractual relationship with an FBO and its volunteers. In Hamilton, a multi-stakeholder network emerged to support the climate preparedness of agencies serving local vulnerable populations. In Toronto, a residents' working group was established to address neighbour well-being and emergency response in one apartment tower. Work in all three communities is ongoing. Conclusion Multi-stakeholder support for community organizations and local volunteers can enable partnerships in neighbourhood-level climate resilience-before, during and after extreme weather events. Public Health, while not typically top-of-mind as a key ally in this work, is well positioned to make a contribution. Consistent with place-based approaches, an emergent community development design enabled community animators to catalyze collaborations to suit the on-the-ground realities of each site.

Murray, S; Poland, B

Neighbourhood climate resilience: lessons from the Lighthouse Project

Canadian Journal Of Public Health-Revue Canadienne De Sante Publique

https://doi.org/10.17269/s41997-020-00432-0

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively measure the vulnerability level of the whole rural social-ecological system in Yunnan Province and to analyze the spatial differences of the vulnerability in different regions. Design/methodology/approach Based on the exposure-sensitivity-adaptability vulnerability assessment framework, this paper establishes the index system of rural social-ecological system vulnerability to climate change. Combined with the questionnaire survey and meteorological data, the entropy method was used to measure and analyze the vulnerability level and influencing factors of the overall rural social-ecological system in Yunnan Province. At the same time, the vulnerability level of social-ecological system in Yunnan Province is divided into five levels, and the spatial differences of vulnerability level of 16 states (cities) in Yunnan Province are analyzed. Findings The results show that: the social-ecological system has high exposure to climate change (0.809), strong sensitivity (0.729), moderate adaptability (0.297) and overall system vulnerability is at a medium level (0.373). Yunnan Province is divided into five levels of social-ecological system vulnerable areas. The areas of extreme, severe, moderate, mild and slight vulnerability account for 21.45%, 24.65%, 36.82%, 13.18% and 3.90% of the whole province, respectively. The geographical division and vulnerability division of Yunnan Province are basically consistent in space. Originality/value Comprehensive evaluation of the vulnerability of the social-ecological system of Yunnan Province to climate change is the scientific basis for the country to formulate countermeasures against climate change, and it is also the need to improve the adaptability of the social and economic system of the fragile area, reduce the vulnerability and realize the sustainable development of national social economy. The research results can provide a basis for decision-making of climate adaptation in Yunnan and other regions and provide methods and indicators for the assessment of social-ecological system vulnerability under the background of climate change.

He, YY; Zhou, CC; Ahmed, T

Vulnerability assessment of rural social-ecological system to climate change: a case study of Yunnan Province, China

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-08-2020-0094

The Inuit of Qikiqtaaluk (Baffin Island) have developed a deep respect for their natural environment and are able to report not only changes in weather, ice, and natural resources but also changes in their communities as a result of climate change. The objective of this study was to shed light on how the impacts of climate change are currently perceived in the communities of Kanngiqtugaapik, Pangniqtuuq, and Qikiqtarjuaq. In order to construct a shared knowledge base, we conducted qualitative video interviews and participated in a hunting camp with multigenerational and multigender Inuit hunters and fishers. First, Inuit continue to see the world in which they cohabit with other living things, particularly animals, as a world that they cannot control on their own-a world they must adapt to, passing learning from one generation to the next. Second, they report that changes in the ice have been among the major and most important transformations to have occurred in recent decades. Observations made by these local populations also indicate changes in hunted species, with fewer caribou and narwhal, more birds, insects, and fish, including from more southerly regions, and an uncertainty about polar bear populations. Seal hunting remains stable, and this meat is still the most popular and healthy food, physically and psychologically. Third, sociological and economic changes (e.g., lifestyle change, monetary economies, quotas), in addition to environmental changes (e.g., climate change, species change), have had a significant impact on food harvesting activities as well as food consumption in the region. A final perspective concerns the needs of the Qikiqtaaluk communities to further develop collaboration with scientists. This need for partnership is not only perceived as a scientific necessity but also recognized by Inuit as essential to their communities, with some local leaders ready to work toward a fruitful collaboration.

Sansoulet, J; Therrien, M; Delgove, J; Pouxviel, G; Desriac, J; Sardet, N; Vanderlinden, JP

An update on Inuit perceptions of their changing environment, Qikiqtaaluk (Baffin Island, Nunavut)

Elementa-Science Of The Anthropocene

https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.025

Marginalized communities across the world are increasingly faced with a suit of social-ecological stressors, taking a huge toll on their biocultural resources and livelihoods. Collaborative learning is considered to be a feasible strategy for livelihood resilience among vulnerable communities experiencing such stressors. Taking insights from social-ecological resilience theory, this study discusses how Adi community, living in the ecologically fragile ecosystems of Arunachal Pradesh, India, has developed a location-specific biocultural resource-based adaptive strategy to enhance their livelihood resilience. A novel participatory approach-'recipe contest'-was used to mobilize Adi women from 11 villages of the state's East Siang district with overall aim of developing nutritious and culturally relevant food products based entirely on local resources and knowledge. A total of 43 women (winners of the recipe contests) and 33 other knowledgeable community members (total 76 participants), by participating in focus group discussions and personal interviews, shared their knowledge and experiences relating to local foods and sustainability. We found that a range of climatic, ecological, socioeconomic and political stressors were adversely impacting Adi women's subsistence livelihoods. Through community mobilization, these women formed Self-Help Groups (SHGs) and together they developed a marketable product, 'Adi Siang Nutri', with ingredients provided by 12 local species. This value-added product, integrated with local livelihood trajectories, helped diversify and increase the Adi women's income, allowing them to better safeguard themselves from aforementioned risks. The local species used as the ingredients are being conserved, and have several perceived socio-cultural, ecological and ethnomedicinal benefits. This participatory action research promises to make a significant change in the social-ecological resilience and associated biocultural resources of Adi women. Our findings provide valuable insights for several food, nutritional security and environmental policies to improve social-ecological resilience using biocultural resources.

Singh, RK; Bhardwaj, R; Sureja, AK; Kumar, A; Singh, A; Hazarika, BN; Hussain, SM; Singh, A; Lego, YJ; Rallen, O

Livelihood resilience in the face of multiple stressors: biocultural resource-based adaptive strategies among the vulnerable communities

Sustainability Science

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-021-01057-z

Bangladesh has a long history of devastating tropical cyclones. In view of the effects of the storms on the country, risk assessment is essential for devising the mitigation strategies at various levels. By way of bringing the conceptual structure of general risk model in practice, this work aims to examine the spatial patterns of cyclone risk in the Cox's Bazar district (I) and Rohingya refugee camps (II) located on the southeastern coast of Bangladesh. We use 14 parameters representing the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as the components of risk. The selected parameters were analyzed and integrated though the complementary use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) for depicting the cyclone risk situation comprehensively at both the spatial scales. The status of the cyclone risk was identified and quantified as very high (6.84%, 3.43%), high (45.78%, 27.82%), moderate (5.97%, 39.42%), low (40.62%, 28.70%), and very low (0.81%, 0.61%) for the spatial scale I and II respectively. In general, northwestern and southern peripheral areas exhibited higher risk than the central and northeastern parts of the Cox's Bazar district; and in the refugee settlements, camp number 1E, 1W, 7, and 13 revealed relatively higher levels of the risk. The results of the assessment (I) were correlated with experiential damage from the 1991 cyclone; a reasonable consistency was noticed between the simulated scenario and the observed impacts. We assume that the deliverables of this spatial analysis could be useful to stakeholders while formulating the cyclone risk mitigation policies for the region. Furthermore, this work demonstrates that the applied method would deliver reliable results if tested in other coastal environments. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alam, A; Sammonds, P; Ahmed, B

Cyclone risk assessment of the Cox's Bazar district and Rohingya refugee camps in southeast Bangladesh

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135360

Bangladesh remains one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the effects of climate change. Given the reliance of a large segment of the population on the agricultural sector for both their livelihoods as well as national food security, climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector is crucial for continued national food security and economic growth. Using household data from lowland rice farmers of selected haor areas in Sylhet, the current work presents an analysis of the determinants behind the implementation of different climate change adaptation strategies by lowland rice farmers. The first objective of this study was to explore the extent of awareness of climate change within this population as well as the type of opinions held by lowland rice farmers with respect to climate change. To serve this purpose, a severity index (SI) was developed and subsequently employed to evaluate the perceptions and attitudes of 378 farmers with respect to climate change vulnerability. Respondents were interviewed with respect to climate change related circumstances they faced in their daily lives. Attained SI index values ranged from 69.18% to 93.52%. The SI for the perception Climate change affects rice production was measured as 93.52%. Using data collected from the same 378 farmers, a logistic regression was carried out to investigate the impact of socio-economic and institutional factors on adaptation. The results show that credit from non-government organizations is highly statistically significant for adaptation, and that rural market structure also has a positive effect on adaptation. Among the studied factors, credit from non-governmental organizations (NGOs) was found to be the most important factor for adaptation. The results of this work further indicate that marginal farmers would benefit from government (GoB) funded seasonal training activities that cover pertinent information regarding adaptation after flash floods. Additionally, the authors of this piece recommend timely issuance of government-assisted credit during early flash floods to afflicted farmers, as such an initiative can aid farmers in adapting different strategies to mitigate losses and enhance their productivity as well as livelihood.

Ferdushi, KF; Ismail, MT; Kamil, AA

Perceptions, Knowledge and Adaptation about Climate Change: A Study on Farmers of Haor Areas after a Flash Flood in Bangladesh

Climate

https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070085

Climate change leads to more severe floods, which needs to be modeled properly. This study uses two hydraulic models including Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and LISFLOOD-FP to simu-late floods in two basins (Kashkan and Missouri) with different topographies (mountain and plain terrain). The impacts of different parameters like input resolutions, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), roughness coefficient, and modeling techniques on flood simulation are examined. Results indicate that the performance of the models varies based on topography, input resolutions, and modeling approach. Indeed, the 2D modeling of both models in different topography types leads to better results compared to 1D/2D modeling. In Kashkan basin, HEC-RAS and LISFLOOD-FP models simulate floodplain flow with accuracies of 74% and 70%, respectively, and the ac-curacies of the models in Missouri basin are 80% and 84%, respectively. Although both models, particularly HEC-RAS with ALOS 30 m, can provide reasonable results, with an accuracy of 74% for Kashkan and 63% for Missouri basin, LISFLOOD-FP can perform better (about 4% higher accuracy) than HEC-RAS with a higher resolution of DEM (3DEP) in Missouri basin with significantly lower computational costs. In addition, the performance of the two models significantly decreases using ASTER DEM in plain topography. Results confirm that HEC-RAS out-performs LISFLOOD-FP in coarser resolution DEMs, while LISFLOOD-FP performs better in plain topography, which requires higher resolution DEMs. Despite the low sensitivity of the two models to roughness coefficients, the variability of the LISFLOOD-FP simulations is smaller than HEC-RAS. This work uses the best setting and factors to simulate floodplain zones, which is valuable for flood risk and hazard assessment to reduce and manage damages and losses.

Moghim, S; Gharehtoragh, MA; Safaie, A

Performance of the flood models in different topographies

Journal Of Hydrology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129446

The vulnerability of flood-prone areas is determined by the susceptibility of the exposed assets to the hazard. It is a crucial component in risk assessment studies, both for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. In this study, we analyse patterns of vulnerability for the residential sector in a frequently hit urban area of Milan, Italy. The conceptual foundation for a quantitative assessment of the structural dimensions of vulnerability is based on the modified source-pathway-receptor-consequence model. This conceptual model is used to improve the parameterization of the flood risk analysis, describing (i) hazard scenario definitions performed by hydraulic modelling based on past event data (source estimation) and morphological features and land-use evaluation (pathway estimation) and (ii) the exposure and vulnerability assessment which consists of recognizing elements potentially at risk (receptor estimation) and event losses (consequence estimation). We characterized flood hazard intensity on the basis of variability in water depth during a recent event and spatial exposure also as a function of a building's surroundings and buildings' intrinsic characteristics as a determinant vulnerability indicator of the elements at risk. In this sense the use of a geographic scale sufficient to depict spatial differences in vulnerability allowed us to identify structural vulnerability patterns to inform depth-damage curves and calculate potential losses from mesoscale (land-use level) to microscale (building level). Results produces accurate estimates of the flood characteristics, with mean error in flood depth estimation in the range 0.2-0.3 m and provide a basis to obtain site-specific damage curves and damage mapping. Findings show that the nature of flood pathways varies spatially, is influenced by landscape characteristics and alters vulnerability spatial distribution and hazard propagation. At the mesoscale, the continuous urban fabric Urban Atlas 2018 land-use class with the occurrence of at least 80 % of soil sealing shows higher absolute damage values. At microscale, evidence demonstrated that even events with moderate magnitude in terms of flood depth in a complex urbanized area may cause more damage than one would expect.

Taramelli, A; Righini, M; Valentini, E; Alfieri, L; Gatti, I; Gabellani, S

Building-scale flood loss estimation through vulnerability pattern characterization: application to an urban flood in Milan, Italy

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3543-2022

Machine learning techniques have to date not been widely used in population-environment research, but represent a promising tool for identifying relationships between environmental variables and population outcomes. They may be particularly useful for instances where the nature of the relationship is not obvious or not easily detected using other methods, or where the relationship potentially varies across spatial scales within a given study unit. Machine learning techniques may also help the researcher identify the relative strength of influence of specific variables within a larger set of interacting ones, and so provide a useful methodological approach for exploratory research. In this study, we use machine learning techniques in the form of random forest and regression tree analyses to look for possible connections between drought and rural population loss on the North American Great Plains between 1970 and 2020. In doing so, we analyzed four decades of population count data (at county-size spatial scales), monthly climate data, and Palmer Drought Severity Index scores for Canada and the USA at multiple spatial scales (regional, sub-regional, national, and county/census division levels), along with county level irrigation data. We found that in some parts of Saskatchewan and the Dakotas - particularly those areas that fall within more temperate/less arid ecological sub-regions - drought conditions in the middle years of the 1970s had a significant association with rural population losses. A similar but weaker association was identified in a small cluster of North Dakota counties in the 1990s. Our models detected few links between drought and rural population loss in other decades or in other parts of the Great Plains. Based on R-squared results, models for US portions of the Plains generally exhibited stronger drought-population loss associations than did Canadian portions, and temperate ecological sub-regions exhibited stronger associations than did more arid sub-regions. Irrigation rates showed no significant influence on population loss. This article focuses on describing the methodological steps, considerations, and benefits of employing this type of machine learning approach to investigating connections between drought and rural population change.

McLeman, R; Grieg, C; Heath, G; Robertson, C

A machine learning analysis of drought and rural population change on the North American Great Plains since the 1970s

Population And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-022-00399-9

Coastal cities are under rising pressure to adapt to climate change. They suffer from the severe effects of increased frequencies and intensities of coastal hazards, particularly flooding, while oftentimes continuing to sprawl into hazard-exposed areas and grow beyond the pace of sufficient infrastructure development. Even though these problems have been quite well understood for a while, there is still comparatively little knowledge and scientific assessment of the solution space, i.e., on the options available for adaptation and the ways in which they are being perceived, framed and evaluated in the scientific literature. Focusing on Jakarta, this study presents findings from a systematic assessment of peer-reviewed scientific literature on the adaptation solution space with regard to current and future flooding. Jakarta is chosen as a case study since it is among the cities with the highest flood risk and adaptation pressure globally while also being one of the most heavily researched coastal cities in this regard, certainly in the Global South. Based on a structured keyword search, we assess 339 articles. Results indicate that the perceived solution space is skewed towards hard protection against flooding, while measures to accommodate flooding or retreat from exposed areas are less widely considered in the scientific debate. Soft adaptation measures for the reduction of social vulnerability receive less attention in the literature than those measures targeting the taming of flood hazards, often through engineering solutions. Likewise, hybrid adaptation approaches, which combine soft and hard measures in a complementary way, are only rarely considered. Looking into the future, the findings suggest that despite the importance of hard flood protection as a main adaptation solution in Jakarta, other fields of the solution space deserve increased scientific attention. This relates in particular to urgently needed feasibility and effectiveness assessments of ecosystems-based solutions for flood mitigation and adaptation options targeting social vulnerability. While the empirical results are specific to Jakarta, heuristic observations from research on other coastal cities suggest that similar scoping exercises of the predominantly perceived solution space might be of relevance in many cities beyond Jakarta.

Wannewitz, M; Garschagen, M

Review article: Mapping the adaptation solution space - lessons from Jakarta

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3285-2021

The wine industry is increasingly recognized as especially vulnerable to climate change due to the climate sensitivity of both winegrape yields and quality, making it an important model system for the agricultural impacts of global changes. However, agricultural production is strongly influenced by the management decisions of growers, including their practices to modify the microclimate experienced by the growing crop; these adaptations have not been studied at the vineyard level, where managers on the ground are on the front lines of responding to global change. We conducted 20 in-depth interviews with winegrowers to examine farm-scale adaptive responses to environmental stresses, to understand the views and motivations of agricultural managers, and to explore adaptive capacity in practice. We found that growers tend to respond to stresses individually rather than collectively, except when facing severe, unfamiliar pests and diseases. Responses may be reactive or anticipatory; most anticipatory strategies have been short-term, in response to imminent threats. Growers tend to rely on their own experience to guide their management decisions, which may offer poor guidance under novel climate regimes. From using a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, we find that changing exposure (vineyard location) and sensitivity (planting choices such as vine variety) have the biggest impact on reducing vulnerability, but that adaptations in growing or processing the crop in the vineyard and winery are easier to implement, much more commonly undertaken, and may also offer substantial adaptive capacity. Understanding the context of adaptations, as well as the decision-making processes motivating them, is important for understanding responses to global change. These findings highlight some innovations in adapting to global change, as well as some of the barriers, and point to the need for strategic investments to enhance agricultural resilience to climate change. In particular, strategies to enhance both effective and easy to implement farming adaptations, as well as broader-scale anticipatory, collective responses, could reduce vulnerability in the context of climate change. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nicholas, KA; Durham, WH

Farm-scale adaptation and vulnerability to environmental stresses: Insights from winegrowing in Northern California

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.01.001

Innovation platforms have emerged as a way of enhancing the resilience of agricultural and food systems in the face of environmental change. Consequently, a great deal of theoretical reflection and empirical research have been devoted to the goal of understanding the factors that enhance and constrain their functionality. In this article, we further examine this enquiry by applying the concept of institutional embeddedness, understood as encompassing elements of platform design, structure, and functions as well as aspects of the broader historical, political, and social context to which platforms are connected. We present a case study of sub-national platforms established in three districts of the climatically-stressed Upper West Region of Ghana and charged with facilitating climate change responses at the local level and channelling community priorities into national climate change policy. A different kind of organization - the traditional chief council, the agricultural extension service, and a local NGO - was chosen by members to convene and coordinate the platform in each district. We examine platform members' accounts of the platform formation and selection of facilitating agent, their vision for platform roles, and their understandings of platform agenda and impacts. We analyse these narratives through the lens of institutional embeddedness, as expressed mostly, but not solely, by the choice of facilitating agents. We illustrate how the organizational position - and related vested interests - of facilitating agents contribute to shaping platform agendas, functions, and outcomes. This process hinges on the deployment of legitimacy claims, which may appeal to cultural tradition, technical expertise, community engagement, and dominant scientific narratives on climate change. 'institutional embeddedness is thereby shown to be a critical aspect of agency in multi-actor processes, contributing to framing local understandings of the climate change and to channelling collective efforts towards select response strategies. In conclusion, we stress that the institutional identity of facilitating agents and their relationship to members of the platform and to powerholders in the broader context provides a useful diagnostic lens to analyse the processes that shape the platform's ability to achieve its goals.

Totin, E; Roncoli, C; Traore, PS; Somda, J; Zougmore, R

How does institutional embeddedness shape innovation platforms? A diagnostic study of three districts in the Upper West Region of Ghana

Njas-Wageningen Journal Of Life Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.njas.2017.07.002

Appropriate responses to climate change in the agriculture sector are dependent on knowledge of the status and trends of the factors of the climate change impact chain in the sector. The objective of the study was to broadly assess key human, environmental, and biophysical factors in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), mainly within the decade following the launching of the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP). This was done through a review of literature and analysis of data mainly from World Bank and FAO sources. The status of and changes in these factors were generally unsatisfactory. Population growth rate was high. Average daily maximum temperatures were projected to rise by up to 3.5 degrees C by 2050. Up to 35% of the lands were estimated to be severely to very severely degraded. Total Internal Renewable Water resources per capita were below international requirements in many countries of ECOWAS. Total Renewable Water resources per capita were more abundant but decreased over years. The substantial arable land and renewable water resources and carbon stored in soil (23.5 Gt) and forest biomass (6.3 Gt) are attributes of ECOWAS. Agricultural production was higher in the Gulf of Guinea Zone compared to the Sudano-Sahelian Zone but yields of rice, maize and yam were higher in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone. Food security status was unsatisfactory across ECOWAS although the production of rice, maize, cassava, yam, groundnut, cocoa, and palm oil (in most cases), and livestock, fisheries and aquaculture increased. The increase between 2003 and 2013 for aquaculture was dramatic (847%). Overall increases in the production of rice, maize, sorghum, cassava, yam and groundnut and cattle, sheep and goats were mainly due to increased crop area harvested (42%) and livestock numbers (44%). Policies should be revisited, institutions strengthened and financial investments made for ECOWAS to realize its potential to significantly contribute to food security and carbon storage.

Rhodes, ER; Atewamba, C

Climate Change Impact Chain Factors in ECOWAS

Journal Of Agriculture And Environment For International Development

https://doi.org/10.12895/jaeid.20191.916

Today the issue of climate change-induced mobility-whether displacement, migration, or relocation-is receiving increased interest from policy-makers, academics, and the general public. Many are turning to the academic community for answers to basic questions (how many people are expected to move? when? where?) and for directions for future policies (what measures can support people to remain in their communities? If people have to move, how can the disruption be minimized for those moving and for the affected communities?). While there is a growing body of literature on the issue, the academic community writ large is presently unable to provide consistent comprehensive evidence or guidance on these issues. Most obviously, there is no consensus about what terminology to use-climate change refugee? Environmental migrant? [e.g. Dun and Gemenne 2008. 'Defining Environmental Migration', Forced Migration Review, 31: 10-11]. Nor is there consensus on how many people are expected to move; different research projects use different time frames (2030, 2050, 2100, etc.), are based on different assumptions, and (not surprisingly) come up with different estimates, ranging from 50 million to 1 billion migrants associated with the effects of climate change during this century [e.g. Stern, N. (2006) 'Stern review on the economics of climate change. Executive Summary'. London: HM Treasury. Baird 2007. Human Tide: The Real Migration Crisis: A Christian Aid Report. London: Christian Aid; UN Development Programme (UNDP) (2007/2008). Human Development Report: Fighting Climate Change, Human Solidarity in a Divided World; Kolmannskog 2009, Climate Change, Disaster, Displacement and Migration: Initial Evidence from Africa. New Issues in Refuge Research (Research Paper No. 180). Geneva: UNHCR; Warner 2009. Global Environmental Change and Migration: Governance Challenges. Global Environmental Change].

Ferris, E

Research on climate change and migration where are we and where are we going?

Migration Studies

https://doi.org/10.1093/migration/mnaa028

Water scarcity is a global challenge, yet existing responses are failing to cope with current shocks and stressors, including those attributable to climate change. In sub-Saharan Africa, the impacts of water scarcity threaten livelihoods and wellbeing across the continent and are driving a broad range of adaptive responses. This paper describes trends of water scarcity for Africa and outlines climate impacts on key water-related sectors on food systems, cities, livelihoods and wellbeing, conflict and security, economies, and ecosystems. It then uses systematic review methods, including the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative, to analyse 240 articles and identify adaptation characteristics of planned and autonomous responses to water scarcity across Africa. The most common impact drivers responded to are drought and participation variability. The most frequently identified actors responding to water scarcity include individuals or households (32%), local government (15%) and national government (15%), while the most common types of response are behavioural and cultural (30%), technological and infrastructural (27%), ecosystem-based (25%) and institutional (18%). Most planned responses target low income communities (31%), women (20%), and indigenous communities (13%), but very few studies target mi-grants, ethnic minorities or those living with disabilities. There is a lack of coordination of planned adaptation at scale across all relevant sectors and regions, and lack of legal and institutional frameworks for their operation. Most responses to water scarcity are coping and autonomous responses that showed only minor adjustments to business-as-usual water practices, suggesting limited adaptation depth. Maladaptation is associated with one or more dimension of responses in almost 20% of articles. Coordinating institutional responses, carefully planned technologies, planning for projected climate risks including extension of climate services and increased climate change literacy, and integrating indigenous knowledge will help to address identified challenges of water scarcity towards more adaptive responses across Africa. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Leal, W; Totin, E; Franke, JA; Andrew, SM; Abubakar, IR; Azadi, H; Nunn, PD; Ouweneel, B; Williams, PA; Simpson, NP

Understanding responses to climate-related water scarcity in Africa

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150420

Climate change and variability is bound to impact Smallholder Dairy Farming Systems as a result of overreliance on rainfed fodder production; yet climate models project increased frequencies of droughts that have a bearing on the Length of Growing Period. Similarly higher environmental temperatures are partly attributed to biome-range shifts, implying a likelihood of emerging and re-emergence of livestock and fodder diseases and pests. Nonetheless not much is documented of perceptions and adaptation strategies employed by Smallholder Dairy Farming Systems geared towards resilience to climatie shocks. By employing a mixed method approach that included household surveys, focused group discussions and statistical data analysis using SPSS package, this study aimed to bridge some of the existing gaps in adaptation strategies on Smallholder Dairy Farming Systems in Siaya Sub-County of Western Kenya. Survey results obtained from 100 households and Focused Group Discussions revealed that the climate of the study location was perceived to have changed, with droughts singled out as the most frequent. These perceptions were consistent with long-term climate data analysis which affirmed that all seasons, i.e. MAM, JJA, and DJF with the exception of SON showed longterm drying trends. Similarly, environmental temperature showed upward trends in both maximum and minimum temperatures that were perceived to be the cause of proliferation of noxious weeds previously associated with hotter areas of the Sub-County. Typologies of adaptation strategies used in the study showed that adaptation options were limited since these were viewed through a narrow lens of disease control by regular spraying and maize stovers as supplementary livestock feed during fodder dearth periods. This study recommends that besides awareness creation of adverse impacts of climate change and variability, facilitation for ease of access to technologies that ameliorate its adverse effects ought to be put in place. Additionally, empirical studies on consequences of biome range shifts on pasture and fodder productivity, and future possible impacts of diseases on Bos taurus breeds associated with climate change and variability should be undertaken.

Wetende, E; Olago, D; Ogara, W

Perceptions of climate change variability and adaptation strategies on smallholder dairy farming systems: Insights from Siaya Sub-County of Western Kenya

Environmental Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2018.08.001

In sub-Saharan Africa growing season precipitation is affected by climate change. Due to this, in Cameroon, it is uncertain how some crops are vulnerable to growing season precipitation. Here, an assessment of the vulnerability of maize, millet, and rice to growing season precipitation is carried out at a national scale and validated at four sub-national scales/sites. The data collected were historical yield, precipitation, and adaptive capacity data for the period 1961-2019 for the national scale analysis and 1991-2016 for the sub-national scale analysis. The crop yield data were collected for maize, millet, and rice from FAOSTAT and the global yield gap atlas to assess the sensitivity both nationally and sub-nationally. Historical data on mean crop growing season and mean annul precipitation were collected from a collaborative database of UNDP/Oxford University and the climate portal of the World Bank to assess the exposure both nationally and sub-nationally. To assess adaptive capacity, literacy, and poverty rate proxies for both the national and regional scales were collected from KNOEMA and the African Development Bank. These data were analyzed using a vulnerability index that is based on sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. The national scale results show that millet has the lowest vulnerability index while rice has the highest. An inverse relationship between vulnerability and adaptive capacity is observed. Rice has the lowest adaptive capacity and the highest vulnerability index. Sub-nationally, this work has shown that northern maize is the most vulnerable crop followed by western highland rice. This work underscores the fact that at different scales, crops are differentially vulnerable due to variations in precipitation, temperature, soils, access to farm inputs, exposure to crop pest and variations in literacy and poverty rates. Therefore, caution should be taken when transitioning from one scale to another to avoid generalization. Despite these differences, in the sub-national scale, western highland rice is observed as the second most vulnerable crop, an observation similar to the national scale observation.

Epule, TE; Chehbouni, A; Dhiba, D; Etongo, D; Driouech, F; Brouziyne, Y; Peng, C

Vulnerability of maize, millet, and rice yields to growing season precipitation and socio-economic proxies in Cameroon

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252335

Char (Bengali term for riverine island) is a unique socioecological system associated with a large alluvial river. About 4 % of the 160 million people of Bangladesh, who are mostly poor, live in chars, which are located within and alongside its major rivers-the Jamuna, Ganges and Meghna. Agriculture is the mainstay of livelihoods in these riverine chars. However, the cropping system of the chars is at risk to different hydro-climatic hazards due to their vulnerable physical and climatic settings. This study assesses the various hazards to major cash crops in the chars of the Jamuna River and identifies the current coping practices and suggests potential adaptation measures against such hazards. The study is conducted using a combination of conventional and participatory research approaches through analysis of available hydro-climatic data from secondary sources and synthesis of primary information on hazards, their impacts, coping practices and planned adaptations collected directly from the fields using participatory research tools by a multi-disciplinary team. The findings of the study reveal that flood, untimely rain, cold, fog, drought, pest infestation, wind, hailstorm and erosion are the principal hazards to agricultural crops in the Jamuna chars. The hazards vary depending on the crops, and chilli is found to be more vulnerable than other crops. Among the different actors, the crop producers are the worst affected by the hazards. Use of plastic sheet, irrigation and pesticide, reseeding, early harvesting and growing chance crops are among the prominent coping strategies of the producers. The study recommends provisioning of drying, storage and credit facilities, introducing short-duration and disaster-resilient crop varieties, developing local capacity through training and extension services, and improving weather forecasting and dissemination to reduce the agricultural risks in the chars. The findings will be useful in designing programs and interventions in agricultural system to improve the livelihoods of the char dwellers, particularly in south Asia.

Mondal, MS; Rahman, MA; Mukherjee, N; Huq, H; Rahman, R

Hydro-climatic hazards for crops and cropping system in the chars of the Jamuna River and potential adaptation options

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1424-9

In this study, we posit that in determining the underpinnings and attributes of community resilience to disaster-shocks, an analysis of actual and potential disaster victims' emic perspectives, that is the views of cultural insiders, on recovery processes and community resilience is crucial. We argue that community resilience must be framed within a deeper understanding of the subjective views of the actors themselves, their local knowledge and culture, and the historical context of the place or social formation. In this context, the primary goal of this study was to delineate the fundamental elements of community recovery and attributes of resilience to cyclones, storm surges, and other environmental disaster-shocks in Bangladesh's coastal communities, and, recognizing that social actions are pivotal elements of community resilience, we attempt to make a novel contribution by underscoring local emic perspectives. Using the tools of participatory research methods, we collected empirical data from four sources: a household survey of 300 household heads, eight focus group discussions, 20 key informant interviews, and five in-depth, household case studies. Our research findings revealed that the roles of traditional-informal as well as quasi-formal institutions were vital for rapid recovery and transformation to new local economic and livelihood trajectories. Resilience attributes that were deeply embedded in community characteristics assisted in ameliorating immediate impacts as well as in building future adaptive capacities. Out of 12 resilience attributes identified by the respondents, 'knowledge, skills and learning', 'values and beliefs', `people-place connection', 'social networks and support', 'active institutions', and 'self-organization' capacities were ranked highest. The community resilience attributes and their functionality in the context of the coastal communities studied varied significantly depending on their economic base, occupations, and their respective contexts of vulnerability. Overall, the findings demonstrate that community resilience attributes function interactively rather than independently, and analyses of community attributes therefore require a clear understanding of network functioning and the processes that drive institutional structures, relations, and outcomes.

Uddin, MS; Haque, CE; Walker, D; Choudhury, MU

Community resilience to cyclone and storm surge disasters: Evidence from coastal communities of Bangladesh

Journal Of Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110457

Small-scale farming production systems are integral drivers of global sustainability challenges and the climate crisis as well as a solution space for the transition to climate compatible development. However, mainstreaming agricultural emissions into a climate action agenda through integrative approaches, such as Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA), largely reinforces adaptation-mitigation dualism and pays inadequate attention to institutions' linkage on the generation of externalities, such as Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. This may undermine the effectiveness of local-global climate risk management initiatives. Literature data and a survey of small-scale farmers' dairy feeding strategies were used in the simulation of GHG emissions. The effect of price risks on ecoefficiencies or the amount of GHG emissions per unit of produced milk is framed as a proxy for institutional feedbacks on GHG emissions and effect at scale. This case study on small-scale dairy farmers in western Kenya illustrates the effect of local-level and sectoral-level institutional constraints, such as market risks on decision making, on GHG emissions and the effectiveness of climate action. The findings suggest that price risks are significant in incentivising the adoption of CSA technologies. Since institutional interactions influence the choice of individual farmer management actions in adaptation planning, they significantly contribute to GHG spillover at scale. This can be visualised in terms of the nexus between low or non-existent dairy feeding strategies, low herd productivity, and net higher methane emissions per unit of produced milk in a dairy value chain. The use of the Sustainable Food Value Chain (SFVC) analytical lens could mediate the identification of binding constraints, foster organisational and policy coherence, as well as broker the effective mainstreaming of agricultural emissions into local-global climate change risk management initiatives. Market risks thus provide a systematic and holistic lens for assessing alternative carbon transitions, climate financing, adaptation-mitigation dualism, and the related risk of maladaptation, all of which are integral in the planning and implementation of effective climate action initiatives.

Elijah, TV; Makungo, R; Ekosse, GI

Effective Mainstreaming of Agricultural Emissions into Climate Action Agenda: The Case of Institutions and Smallholder Dairy Production Systems, Western Kenya

Atmosphere

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111507

Taiwan's geographical location and environmental conditions present multiple hazards which, coupled with high population density and intensive land development, can easily result in significant impact from natural disasters. The key to reduce disaster risks lies in changing human behavior, diminishing man-made impact, and enhancing people's ability to cope with the consequences of disasters. In addition to the physical science, research on disasters should discuss psychological factors influencing people's intention to engage in disaster preparedness behavior. Schools are important facilities for education and, as a result, the practice and robustness of disaster management in the school has a profound influence on the disaster resilience of the campus and even the society as a whole. Understanding the potential factors influencing teachers' intention to engage in school disaster preparedness behavior is vital in that they are the main executors of school disaster preparedness. The theory of planned behavior (TPB) is the most commonly applied behavioral theory to discuss human's disaster preparedness behavior. From the perspective of disaster psychology, this study explored whether the TPB model could be used to explain the psychological perception variables of teachers' school disaster preparedness behavior, and further look into the personal background factors that affect teachers' intention and actual action in school disaster preparedness. This study collected sample data of elementary and junior high school teachers in Taiwan through questionnaire surveys. Subsequently, structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to propose the TPB model and ANOVA was used to explore the influence of personal background factors. The results showed that attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control all influenced the degree to which teachers engage in school disaster preparedness behavior, which is conformable to the TPB. Specifically, attitude was the main impact factor, which affected teachers' ability to take action through behavioral intention, whereas perceived control directly affected the degree to which teachers engage in disaster preparedness behavior. On the other hand, teachers' voluntariness was a key personal factor that affected teachers' intention and behavior in school disaster preparedness.

Wang, JJ; Tsai, NY

Factors affecting elementary and junior high school teachers' behavioral intentions to school disaster preparedness based on the theory of planned behavior

International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102757

The rise of digital technologies poses opportunities and challenges for transparency and accountability in climate governance. This paper examines their impact on information flows and accountability in the context of climate outcomes, analyzing three case examples (World Bank Climate Warehouse, Climate TRACE, and OpenClimate) to assess the potential of digital solutions to improve data availability and reliability, particularly for non-state actors (NSAs). Using Ostrom's 'rules in use' framework, we explore how digital technologies shape transparency outcomes, highlighting challenges and unintended consequences. We analyze how these initiatives frame, design, and implement their rules for digital approaches to define their participants' data collection, purpose, and access rules, all of which are crucial aspects impacting transparency and accountability for the Paris Agreement. Our findings reveal uncertainties in the rules' operationalization for these digital technologies that undermine their potential to enhance transparency. Three key issues emerge: (1) establishing appropriate rules to govern data quality for accuracy and credibility; (2) addressing power imbalances to foster inclusive and equitable transparency; and (3) aligning rules in use across digitally-enabled solutions to promote coordination and facilitate polycentrism in the post-Paris climate regime. These insights shed light on the role of digital approaches in bridging transparency and accountability gaps, emphasizing the need for careful rule design and coordination for effective implementation in global climate governance.KEY POLICY INSIGHTSDigital technologies have the potential to generate new modes of transparency within the Paris climate governance system, particularly at the level of non-state and subnational actors.By comparing three case examples employing digital technologies to improve climate data, we evaluate various formal and informal 'rules in use' for generating data and facilitating sharing across actors and initiatives to enhance transparency and accountability.To leverage the potential of digital technologies in advancing transparency and accountability in climate governance, policymakers should prioritize the alignment of rules in use, address power imbalances, and ensure the creation of appropriate rules governing data quality and structure.

Hsu, AE; Schletz, M

Digital technologies - the missing link between climate action transparency and accountability?

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2237937

Future changes in temperature and precipitation may be exacerbated by climate change, and this could result in extreme hydrologic events like floods and droughts. The objective of this study was to assess how the future climate would affect flooding in Ethiopia's lower Bilate catchment. In order to simulate flood occurrences and maps for various climate scenarios, two hydraulic models-HEC-RAS and a semi-distributed physically based HEC-HMS hydrologic model-were utilized. For the baseline (1971-2000), mid-term (2041-2070), and long-term (2071-2100) cycles under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the bias-corrected data of five climate models were used. The baseline and future period stream flow data were used to produce the flood events for the 50- and 100-year return floods. Flood inundation area and depth were computed using the HEC-RAS model. The flood risk map of the catchment was developed by combining the flood vulnerability and hazard indexes. Future predictions showed that the catchment's maximum and minimum temperatures and average annual precipitation would rise, which also increase the yearly stream would flow. According to the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the intensity of future floods will rise and inundate an area ranging from 88.5 to 161 ha considering the 50 and 100-year flood. The worst case scenario under RCP8.5 is the possible inundation of 161 hectares of the studied reach that could be inundated by a 100-year cycle flood. Climate change will make flooding more difficult in the 2050s and 2080s, yet an extreme and riskier flood may happen in the 2050s under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results of this study could aid non-governmental and governmental organizations in their efforts to better control flood risk in the lower Bilate catchment.

Edamo, ML; Hatiye, SD; Minda, TT; Ukumo, TY

Flood inundation and risk mapping under climate change scenarios in the lower Bilate catchment, Ethiopia

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06101-y

Climate variability and change has continued to wreak havoc on the agricultural sector, with small-scale farmers being the most hard-hit. The limited adaptive capacity of small-scale farmers faced with the impacts of climate variability and change principally explains their high level of vulnerability. It is within this framework that this study sought to examine the specific resiliency choices of small-scale farmers faced with climate variability and change in Cameroon, and the plausible policy implications. Data was collected through a survey of 300 small-scale farmer household heads as well as climate data collected from meteorological stations. Data analysis was run on Microsoft Excel 2007 and SPSS 20, employing descriptive and inferential statistics. Findings showed significant fluctuations in climate parameters in recent years. The main resiliency choices of small-scale farmers faced with climate variability and change were on-farm practices (23%), off-farm practices (19%), and agroforestry practices (28%); with 30% of the sampled farmers taking to the no resiliency option. A statistically significant (p < 0.01; p < 0.05; and p < 0.10) causal and non-causal relationship was found to exist between independent variables (household size, age of household head, number of farms, farm size, household income, farm experience, gender, experience of extreme weather events, access to weather information, access to extension services, access to credit, distance to market, access to land, and membership in farming group) and small-scale farmers' practice of different resiliency options faced with climate variability and change. This shows that small-scale farmers' practice of different resiliency options faced with climate variability and change is determined by past experience of extreme weather/climate events as well as socio-economic and institutional factors. On the basis of these findings, it is recommended that policy makers factor in these determinants when taking actions geared towards enhancing small-scale farmers' resilience to climate variability and change.

Awazi, NP; Tchamba, MN; Avana, TML

Climate change resiliency choices of small-scale farmers in Cameroon: determinants and policy implications

Journal Of Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109560

Canada Geese (Branta canadensis) are an important wildlife food resource for Cree people living in communities along the James Bay coasts. According to Traditional Ecological Knowledge, environmental changes along the coast have affected hunting success. Also, changes in the relative abundance of different goose populations that use James Bay may affect hunting opportunities. The objective of our study was to use band recoveries to identify Canada Goose populations harvested by Eeyou Istchee Cree hunters in their Eastern James Bay territory between 2000 and 2020. A total of 744 band recoveries were reported including 198 from the Atlantic Population (AP), 82 from the Southern Hudson Bay Population (SHBP), 122 from the Atlantic Flyway Resident Population (AFRP), 339 from the Mississippi Flyway Giant Population (MFGP), and three that could not be assigned to a population. The percentage of banded geese that were recovered was three times greater for the AP than for the other three populations. Eighty-seven percent of recoveries were reported in spring and 72% were submitted by hunters from the two northern communities (Chisasibi and Wemindji). Most recoveries were reported from coastal hunting sites, but a greater proportion of banded geese of the AP were recovered inland compared to the other goose populations, an indication of their propensity to migrate inland. The most noticeable change in the goose harvest compared to the 1970s was the rapid increase of molt migrant temperate-breeding geese of the AFRP and MFGP. In addition to environmental changes along the James Bay east coast, changes in the relative abundance of each goose population may affect hunting success because each population is differently susceptible to hunting within the territory due to differences in migratory behavior. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of band recoveries in tracking these changes and we therefore encourage agencies to maintain banding programs and Cree hunters to report their recovered bands.

Giroux, JF; Rodrigue, J; Brook, RW; Patenaude-Monette, M

Canada Goose populations harvested in Eastern James Bay by Eeyou Istchee Cree hunters

Avian Conservation And Ecology

https://doi.org/10.5751/ACE-02059-170105

Every economic sector in the world is threatened by climate change, but the agricultural sector is especially vulnerable because of its strong dependence. That is the way this study aims to introduce the causal dynamic interactions of a vital maize food crop, fertilizer consumption as a non-climate factor, and meteorological factors in the provinces of Pakistan. The breakpoint unit root tests achieve the validity of variable stationary properties. Constant variation is imposed to demonstrate the long- and short-run autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, which is covered by the use of quarterly data from the years 2000 to 2020. The results reveal that fertilizer consumption substantially influences maize production in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; except for Sindh, it exhibits a negative connection. In Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, maize production is negatively linked with air temperature, whereas Balochistan illustrates a significant positive association. Long-term analysis noticed that the production of maize, a staple food crop, is significantly and favorably correlated with evapotranspiration in the province. At the same time, relative humidity demonstrates no relationship with maize crops in overall provinces. Rainfall over the long term shows an unfavorable and robust relationship with maize production in Pakistan's provinces. Throughout Punjab, air temperature and relative humidity have more of an effect over the long and short terms, respectively. The fertilizer strongly influences the province of Sindh in the long run, while maize is more sensitive to air temperature in the short term. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, evapotranspiration and Balochistan's air temperature greatly influence maize crops in the short and long term. Based on scientific evidence, inventing applicable agricultural-specific policy is made for farmers with the resilience to deal with climate influence. Significant food crop quality that can withstand increased temperatures and rainfall should be the focus of agricultural innovation and research to ensure long-term production and distribution efficiency.

Waris, U; Tariq, S; Mehmood, U; ul-Haq, Z

Exploring potential impacts of climatic variability on production of maize in Pakistan using ARDL approach

Acta Geophysica

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-023-01118-0

To support the transition from traditional flood defence strategies to a flood risk management approach at the basin scale in Europe, the EU has adopted a new Directive (2007/60/EC) at the end of 2007. One of the major tasks which member states must carry out in order to comply with this Directive is to map flood hazards and risks in their territory, which will form the basis of future flood risk management plans. This paper gives an overview of existing flood mapping practices in 29 countries in Europe and shows what maps are already available and how such maps are used. Roughly half of the countries considered have maps covering as good as their entire territory, and another third have maps covering significant parts of their territory. Only five countries have very limited or no flood maps available yet. Of the different flood maps distinguished, it appears that flood extent maps are the most commonly produced floods maps (in 23 countries), but flood depth maps are also regularly created (in seven countries). Very few countries have developed flood risk maps that include information on the consequences of flooding. The available flood maps are mostly developed by governmental organizations and primarily used for emergency planning, spatial planning, and awareness raising. In spatial planning, flood zones delimited on flood maps mainly serve as guidelines and are not binding. Even in the few countries (e. g. France, Poland) where there is a legal basis to regulate floodplain developments using flood zones, practical problems are often faced which reduce the mitigating effect of such binding legislation. Flood maps, also mainly extent maps, are also created by the insurance industry in Europe and used to determine insurability, differentiate premiums, or to assess long-term financial solvency. Finally, flood maps are also produced by international river commissions. With respect to the EU Flood Directive, many countries already have a good starting point to map their flood hazards. A flood risk based map that includes consequences, however, has yet to be developed by most countries.

de Moel, H; van Alphen, J; Aerts, JCJH

Flood maps in Europe - methods, availability and use

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-289-2009

This study quantifies the exposure of agricultural land in Aotearoa-New Zealand's (A-NZ) flood hazard zones (FHZs). We developed a spatio-temporal flood exposure framework to quantify the extent of the area and yearly earnings before income and tax (EBIT) for arable, forestry, horticulture, sheep and beef, and dairy land in FHZs between 1990 and 2016. In 1990, ~1.57 million hectares of agricultural land were exposed, decreasing slightly to ~1.50 million hectares by 2016. However, there was a change in the lower-value types of agricultural land uses being exposed, such as for sheep and beef farming and forestry, toward dairy farming (from ~364,000 hectares in FHZs in 2008 to ~471,000 hectares in 2016). Dairy farming is more intensively staffed with larger amounts of fixed assets, making them less resilient to flood impacts. Despite this, conversion to dairy farming even within the identified FHZs has been driven by the increasing profitability of the enterprise. As a result of both the production value change and land area increases, the dairy EBIT values within FHZs rose rapidly from NZD 382 million to NZD 1.25 billion between 2008 and 2012, creating significantly more economic exposure for A-NZ. This trend is particularly evident in the Southland, Canterbury, and Waikato regions. Similarly, in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Hawke's Bay regions, there was an increase in high-value horticultural land-predominantly viticulture-in FHZs (a increase of NZD 321 million in annual EBIT for exposed horticulture across the three regions). Identifying sub-national trends in agricultural flood exposure allows for a detailed analysis of the likely impacts in high-risk areas, which can inform emergency management plans and mitigative actions that diminish the economic impacts from flood events.

Craig, H; Paulik, R; Djanibekov, U; Walsh, P; Wild, A; Popovich, B

Quantifying National-Scale Changes in Agricultural Land Exposure to Fluvial Flooding

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su132212495

Within a changing world where freshwater resources are coming under increasing pressure, assessing water system vulnerability is critical for enabling adequate water resource management. Quantitative assessments of socio-economic and environmental factors which contribute to water system vulnerability can provide a strong evidence base on which to base decision-making. A range of drivers including population growth, agricultural intensification and industrial activity are placing greater demand on freshwater supplies in Western Australia. In combination with changing climatic conditions resulting in a warmer and drier environment in southwest Western Australia, these pressures have diminished the quantity of available freshwater supplies for agricultural districts. In this paper we provide a quantitative assessment of water supply and demand vulnerabilities for the Wheatbelt region of the state of Western Australia (WA). This region provides significant agricultural and mineral resource contributions to the state economy. The potable water supply for human consumption in this region is almost entirely drawn from a different geographic area, and conveyed by means of an extensive pipeline network to the Wheatbelt region. Competition for freshwater resources is high with increasing population pressures from expansion of the state's capital city, Perth, encroaching north- and eastwards into the Wheatbelt. To assess water vulnerability we conceptualise the water system components and select a series of socio-economic and environmental indicators which best represent the inherent vulnerabilities associated with water supply and demand in the Wheatbelt. Water supply, demand and overall system vulnerabilities were spatially assessed for the years 2001, 2006 and 2011. Results indicate that biophysical indicators of supply capacity have the greatest influence on overall vulnerability for each time period, however the spatial variability of specific vulnerability factors is much more nuanced. Our assessment of water vulnerability will enable water resources managers and policy-makers within the Wheatbelt and at the state level to better assess water supply and demand pressures. However, our robust methodology also allows for transferability to other locations experiencing water stress as a comprehensive approach for examining historic and future impacts of water resource availability on socio-ecological systems.

Boruff, B; Biggs, E; Pauli, N; Callow, N; Clifton, J

Changing water system vulnerability in Western Australia's Wheatbelt region

Applied Geography

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.12.016

As the sea level rises and the frequency of intense rains increase, so does the need for climate adaptation. Planning for a successive development of society away from current and future flood prone areas to give room for water is not seen as an alternative in Sweden today, although it could be a strategy that creates long-term security. In this study, we investigated Swedish public authorities' perceptions of planned retreat and flexible land use. This was done through an online survey and interviews directed to officials directly involved in climate adaptation work, at municipalities, County Administration Boards (CABs), Regions, national authorities (NAs), and industry organizations (IOs). The responses were analyzed through the lens of a windows of opportunity approach. The study indicates that the extent to which climate scenarios are used and how far into the future the planning horizon extends in the practical work, varies between governance level which also have impact on the perspectives on planned retreat. The openness for planned retreat and flexible strategies seemed to differ slightly between governance levels in an ascending scale from regions, IOs / NAs, municipalities, to CABs. The survey has generated insights from a large number of respondents at different governance levels sharing their perceptions of retreat and adaptation in Sweden as a main contribution of this work.Difficulties to deal with uncertainties in climate scenarios and considering long-term perspectives were identified as some reasons that close the window for planned retreat. Enabling a flexible use of the land that will gradually become more exposed to flooding and sea level rise could be an intermediate step towards retreat. This would be a way to reframe a closed window of opportunity and begin the process of turning it into something transformative. It could be where the short- and long-term planning meet and a way to reframe our way of thinking about how we live and reside in dynamic waterfront areas, and perhaps lead to a more transformative, safe, and sustainable society for future generations.

Goransson, G; Van Well, L; Bendz, D; Hedfors, J; Danielsson, P

Opportunities for planned retreat and flexible land use in Sweden: Local, regional and national governance perspectives

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100530

Wind-related disasters will bring more devastating consequences to cities in the future with a changing climate, but relevant studies have so far provided insufficient information to guide adaptation actions. This study aims to provide an in-depth elaboration of the contents discussed in open access literature regarding wind disaster adaptation in cities. We used the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to refine topics and main contents based on 232 publications (1900 to 2019) extracted from Web of Science and Scopus. We conducted a full-text analysis to filter out focal cities along with their adaptation measures. The results show that wind disaster adaptation research in cities has formed a systematic framework in four aspects: 1) vulnerability and resilience of cities, 2) damage evaluation, 3) response and recovery, and 4) health impacts of wind disaster. Climate change is the background for many articles discussing vulnerability and adaptation in coastal areas. It is also embedded in damage evaluation since it has the potential to exacerbate disaster consequences. The literature is strongly inclined towards more developed cities such as New York City and New Orleans, among which New York City associated with Hurricane Sandy ranks first (38/232). Studies on New York City cover all the aspects, including the health impacts of wind disasters which are significantly less studied now. Distinct differences do exist in the number of measures regarding the adaptation categories and their subcategories. We also find that hard adaptation measures (i.e., structural and physical measures) are far more popular than soft adaptation measures (i.e., social and institutional measures). Our findings suggest that policymakers should pay more attention to cities that have experienced major wind disasters other than New York. They should embrace the up-to-date climate change study to defend short-term disasters and take precautions against long-term changes. They should also develop hard-soft hybrid adaptation measures, with special attention on the soft side, and enhance the health impact study of wind-related disasters.

He, Y; Wu, BQ; He, P; Gu, WY; Liu, BB

Wind disasters adaptation in cities in a changing climate: A systematic review

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248503

The purpose of this paper is to identify which of the world's cereal producing regions are likely to become vulnerable to climate change over the 21st century by identifying those regions that will be (1) exposed to climatic stress and (2) have a limited capacity to adapt. First, we use a global hydrological model to identify regions likely to be exposed to drought, defined here as a location where the available soil moisture is projected to decline by the 2050s and 2080s relative to the mean soil moisture observed between 1990 and 2005. Second, we use agricultural, meteorological and socio-economic data to develop models of adaptive capacity and run these models to show where adaptive capacity is likely to decline by the 2050s and 2080s relative to the baseline period of 1990-2005. Third, we contrast the hydrological and adaptive capacity model outputs to identify vulnerability hotspots for wheat and maize. Here, a vulnerability hotspot is defined as a region that the models project as likely to experience both a decline in adaptive capacity and in available soil moisture. Results from the hydrological model project significant drying in many parts of the world overt the 21st century. Results from the adaptive capacity models show that regions with the lowest overall adaptive capacity for wheat include much of western Russia, northern India, southeastern South America, and southeastern Africa. In terms of maize, regions with the lowest adaptive capacity include the northeastern USA, southeastern South America, southeastern Africa, and central/northern India. When taken together, this study identifies five wheat and three maize growing regions likely to be both exposed to worse droughts and a reduced capacity to adapt. For wheat, these are: southeastern USA, southeastern South America, the northeastern Mediterranean, and parts of central Asia. For maize, our analysis suggests that vulnerability hotspots are: southeastern South America, parts of southern Africa, and the northeastern Mediterranean. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fraser, EDG; Simelton, E; Termansen, M; Gosling, SN; South, A

Vulnerability hotspots: Integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought

Agricultural And Forest Meteorology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.008

This paper aims to examine the impact of large-scale structural adjustments (like the Greater Dhaka Flood Protection Project, GDFPP) on local living environment. It focuses the importance of environmental factors in flood hazard mitigation, and examines the environmental attitudes of the floodplain residents arising from the large-scale structural adjustments. Based on 'perceived natural hazard research perspectives', this paper examines: (i) the reasons for persistent floodplain occupation, and (ii) the importance of environmental factors in the choice, motivations and decision-making of floodplain residents. This research used data collected from 300 households situated in the eastern part of Dhaka. The face-to-face household survey data provided individuals' responses to a structured questionnaire on hazards and environment. Survey concerned urban floodplains, and looked for data on housing, household characteristics, and residents' attitudes. Results of interview surveys were used to: (i) explore the reasons of floodplain occupation, and (ii) residents' attitudes to tolerable level of flood risk and willingness to accept environmental change resulting from the proposed structural embankments in the eastern perimeter of Dhaka City, Bangladesh. Findings revealed that floodplain occupation (by the individuals' decision-making) was a result of overall reaction to the Government's structural adjustment policies that resulted from institutional, locational and socio-economic factors. The attitude survey results provided residents' perception to hazards and environment to be dependent on the socio-economic factors-but in a complex manner, many factors are interrelated. In addition to support for structural embankments, the study sample displayed a common concern and widespread environmental awareness. In terms of any 'trade-off' between the benefits (resources) from the embankments and costs (hazards) due to the detrimental impact on environment, the residents of Dhaka, despite some concern for sacrificing embankments for environment, tended to show a general consensus for embankments.

Chowdhury, MR

The impact of 'Greater Dhaka Flood Protection Project' (GDFPP) on local living environment the attitude of the floodplain residents

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024798931426

An emerging planning framework for climate adaptation focuses on interactions among societal values, institutional rules and scientific and experiential knowledge about biophysical impacts of climate change and adaptation options. These interactions shape the decision context that can enable or constrain effective adaptation. To illustrate the operationalisation of this 'values-rules-knowledge' (VRK) framework we developed biophysical adaptation pathways for agricultural landscapes of south-eastern Australia, which are expected to become warmer and drier under climate change. We used the VRK framework to identify potential constraints to implementing the pathways. Drawing on expert knowledge, published literature, biodiversity modelling and stakeholder workshops we identified potential adaptation pathways for (1) the production matrix, (2) high conservation value remnant eucalypt woodlands, and (3) woodland trees. Adaptation options included shifts from mixed cropping grazing to rangeland grazing or biomass enterprises; promoting re-assembly of native ecological communities; and maintaining ecosystem services and habitat that trees provide. Across all pathways, applying the VRK framework elucidated fifteen key implementation constraints, including limits to farm viability, decreasing effectiveness of environmental legislation and conflicting values about exotic plants. Most of the constraints involved interactions among VRK; 13 involved rules, eight involved values, and seven involved knowledge. Value constraints appeared most difficult to address, whereas those based on rules or knowledge were more tangible. The lower number of knowledge constraints may reflect the scale of our analysis (which focused on decision points in pre-defined pathways); new knowledge and participatory approaches would likely yield a richer set of scenarios. We conclude that the VRK framework helps connect the biophysical knowledge-based view of adaptation with a perspective on the need for changes in social systems, enabling targeting of constraints to adaptation. Our focus on pathways and decision points in different sectors of the multi-use landscape highlighted the importance of group and higher level planning and policy for balancing the collective outcomes of multiple decisions by many land managers. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prober, SM; Colloff, MJ; Abel, N; Crimp, S; Doherty, MD; Dunlop, M; Eldridge, DJ; Gorddard, R; Lavorel, S; Metcalfe, DJ; Murphy, HT; Ryan, P; Williams, KJ

Informing climate adaptation pathways in multi-use woodland landscapes using the values-rules-knowledge framework

Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2017.02.021

Anthropogenic climate change caused by the release of excessive greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere is the biggest challenge of the 21st century. Man-made climate change threatens the biosphere on which all forms of life depend. Climate change requires human effort to manage the impact of extreme events such as droughts, flooding, and heatwaves. As such, human decision-making processes are crucial for the successful management of climate change impacts. The decision-making process include awareness and perception of climate change risks. Awareness and perceptions of (natural) hazard risk are determinants of human response (adaptation) to environmental shocks (climate change and variability). To this end, this study explores the effects of an environmental education course on the awareness and perception of climate change risks among seventh and eighth grade learners in South Africa. This exploratory study collected primary data through the implementation of emergent participation tools in focus group discussions with learners (n = 23). These emergent participation tools are the Problem tree and the Hazard, Impact and Vulnerability matrix. Responses from a comparison group were juxtaposed with those of environmental education beneficiaries through a qualitative content analysis technique. Findings reveal that environmental awareness has an effect on perceptions of current and future climate change risks. Learners are concerned about short-term risks more than long-term risks. Short-term risks such as meeting basic needs and dealing with criminality are priorities over long-term risks such as climate change. A daily struggle to meet these basic needs represent the local context and discourse within which learners view and experience their world. Learners do perceive the causal linkages between different climatic and non-climatic risks. Drawing such causal linkages raises awareness and perception and this cause-effect relationship is necessary for behavioural change. Environmental education is necessary to raise the awareness and perceptions of learners to environmental risks such as climate change. More studies are required to explore the topic of environmental education on raising awareness and perceptions of environmental risks such as climate change with head of households.

Nkoana, EM

Exploring the effects of an environmental education course on the awareness and perceptions of climate change risks among seventh and eighth grade learners in South Africa

International Research In Geographical And Environmental Education

https://doi.org/10.1080/10382046.2019.1661126

Climate change is having a catastrophic impact on the livelihoods of farm households in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA). This study employs comprehensive data obtained in 2018 from 4351 farm households in five countries to appraise the key climate hazards experienced by farmers, the risk coping methods adopted, and factor influencing the use of these methods. Although droughts, floods, hailstorms, and crop pests/diseases are major climate-induced risks in ESA. droughts are predominant in all these countries. Farm households in ESA have adopted various strategies to address climate risk, which includes changing farming practices, reducing consumption, using savings and borrowing, and seeking new employment. Farming families headed by a female, married, or an elderly member opt to change farming methods and decrease consumption, whereas they are less inclined to look for alternate livelihood options. Farming families with higher livestock endowments commonly use savings or borrow and are unlikely to change farming methods, decrease consumption, and search for alternate employment. Better-off families tend to change farming methods but are unlikely to adopt other risk coping options. Farming families with non-farm livelihood options are unlikely to change farming methods, use savings/borrowings, or decrease consumption, whereas they tend to search for alternate employment.Training on agriculture and economic status are crucial for climate change adaptation in these regions. Findings exhibit substantial differences among the study countries regarding the adoption of coping strategies. Compared to farmers in Kenya, farmers in other countries change agricultural methods to cope with climate shocks. Ethiopian farmers, compared to their Kenyan counterparts, decrease consumption to deal with climate risks, whereas, farmers in Tanzania, Malawi, and Mozambique are less likely to use this option. Similarly, the likelihood of seeking alternative employment as a risk coping strategy is lower among Ethiopian farmers, while it is higher among the farmers in other countries. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rahut, DB; Aryal, JP; Marenya, P

Understanding climate-risk coping strategies among farm households: Evidence from five countries in Eastern and Southern Africa

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145236

The term 'resilience' is increasingly being used in Earth system science and other disciplines which study what could be called 'social-technical-environmental systems'-systems composed of closely interacting social (e.g. economic and political), technical (e.g. energy production infrastructure), and environmental components (e.g. climate and the biosphere). However, the diversity of resilience theories and a certain (intended) openness of proposed definitions can lead to misunderstandings and may impede their application to complex systems modelling. We propose a guideline that aims to ease communication as well as to support systematic development of research questions and models in the context of resilience. It can be applied independently of the modelling framework or underlying theory of choice. At the heart of this guideline is a checklist consisting of four questions to be answered: (1) Resilience of what? (2) Resilience regarding what? (3) Resilience against what? (4) Resilience how? We refer to the answers to these resilience questions as the 'system', the 'sustainant', the 'adverse influence', and the 'response options'. The term 'sustainant' is a neologism describing the feature of the system (state, structure, function, pathway, horizontal ellipsis ) that should be maintained (or restored quickly enough) in order to call the system resilient. The use of this proposed guideline in the field of Earth system resilience is demonstrated for the application example of a potential climate tipping element: the Amazon rainforest. The example illustrates the diversity of possible answers to the checklist's questions as well as their benefits in structuring the modelling process. The guideline supports the modeler in communicating precisely what is actually meant by 'resilience' in a specific context. This combination of freedom and precision could help to advance the resilience discourse by building a bridge between those demanding unambiguous definitions and those stressing the benefits of generality and flexibility of the resilience concept.

Tamberg, LA; Heitzig, J; Donges, JF

A modeler's guide to studying the resilience of social-technical-environmental systems

Environmental Research Letters

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac60d9

Non-technical summaryEnvironmental threats to shelter, livelihoods, and food security are often considered push factors for intra-African human migration. Research in this field is often fragmented into a myriad of case studies on specific subregions or events, thus preventing a more comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon. This paper examines environmental drivers reported in the literature as push factors for human displacement across 32 sub-Saharan African countries between 1990 and 2021. Extensive consultation of past studies and reports with analytical methods shows that environmental migration is complex and influenced by multiple direct and indirect factors. Non-environmental drivers compound the effects of environmental change. Technical summaryIntra-African environmental migration is a bleak reality. Warming trends, aridification, and the intensification of extreme climate events, combined with underlying non-environmental drivers, may set millions of people on the move. Despite previous studies and meta-analyses on environmental migration within sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), conclusive empirical evidence of the relationship between environmental change and migration is still missing. Here we draw on 87 case studies published in the scholarly literature (from fields ranging from the environmental sciences to development economics and migration research) or documented by research databases, reports, and international disaster datasets to develop a meta-analysis investigating the relationship between environmental changes and migration across SSA. A combination of quantitative, Qualitative Comparative Analyses (QCA), and statistical correlation methods are used to analyze the metadata and investigate the complex web of environmental drivers of environmental migration in SSA while highlighting subregional differences in the predominant environmental forcing. We develop a new conceptual framework for investigating the cascading flow of interdependences among environmental change drivers of human displacement while reconstructing the main migration patterns across SSA. We also present new insights into the way non-environmental factors are exposing communities in SSA to high vulnerability and reduced resilience to environmental change. Social media summaryHuman displacement in sub-Saharan Africa is often associated with the effects of climate change and environmental degradation.

Wolde, SG; D'Odorico, P; Rulli, MC

Environmental drivers of human migration in Sub-Saharan Africa

Global Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2023.5

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), precipitation is an important driver of agricultural production. In Uganda, maize production is essentially rain-fed. However, due to changes in climate, projected maize yield targets have not often been met as actual observed maize yields are often below simulated/projected yields. This outcome has often been attributed to parallel gaps in precipitation. This study aims at identifying maize yield and precipitation gaps in Uganda for the period 1998-2017. Time series historical actual observed maize yield data (hg/ha/year) for the period 1998-2017 were collected from FAOSTAT. Actual observed maize growing season precipitation data were also collected from the climate portal of World Bank Group for the period 1998-2017. The simulated or projected maize yield data and the simulated or projected growing season precipitation data were simulated using a simple linear regression approach. The actual maize yield and actual growing season precipitation data were now compared with the simulated maize yield data and simulated growing season precipitation to establish the yield gaps. The results show that three key periods of maize yield gaps were observed (period one: 1998, period two: 2004-2007 and period three: 2015-2017) with parallel precipitation gaps. However, in the entire series (1998-2017), the years 2008-2009 had no yield gaps yet, precipitation gaps were observed. This implies that precipitation is not the only driver of maize yields in Uganda. In fact, this is supported by a low correlation between precipitation gaps and maize yield gaps of about 6.3%. For a better understanding of cropping systems in SSA, other potential drivers of maize yield gaps in Uganda such as soils, farm inputs, crop pests and diseases, high yielding varieties, literacy, and poverty levels should be considered. Article Highlights When actual maize yields are less than simulated maize yields, maize yield gaps are said to exist Precipitation gaps occur when actual precipitation is below simulated precipitation Maize yields are driven by precipitation and other variables like soils and socio-economic circumstances

Epule, TE; Dhiba, D; Etongo, D; Peng, CH; Lepage, L

Identifying maize yield and precipitation gaps in Uganda

Sn Applied Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-021-04532-5

Flooding is a natural disaster which affects thousands of riverside, coastal, and urban communities causing severe damage. River flood mapping is the process of determining inundation extents and depth by comparing historical river water levels with ground surface elevation references. This paper aims to map flood hazard areas under the influence of the Uruguay River, Itaqui (southern Brazil), using a calibration digital elevation model (DEM), historic river level data and geoprocessing techniques. The temporal series of maximum annual level records of the Uruguay River, for the years 1942 to 2017, were linked to the Brazilian Geodetic System using geometric leveling and submitted for descriptive statistical analysis and probability. The DEM was calibrated with ground control points (GCPs) of high vertical accuracy based on post-processed high-precision Global Navigation Satellite System surveys. Using the temporal series statistical analysis results, the spatialization of flood hazard classes on the calibrated DEM was assessed and validated. Finally, the modeling of the simulated flood level was visually compared against the flood area on the satellite image, which were both registered on the same date. The free DEM calibration model indicated high correspondence with GCPs (R-2 = 0.81; p < 0.001). The calibrated DEM showed a 68.15 % improvement in vertical accuracy (RMSE = 1.00 m). Five classes of flood hazards were determined: extremely high flood hazard, high flood hazard, moderate flood hazard, low flood hazard, and non-floodable. The flood episodes, with a return time of 100 years, were modeled with a 57.24 m altimetric level. Altimetric levels above 51.66 m have a high potential of causing damage, mainly affecting properties and public facilities in the city's northern and western peripheries. Assessment of the areas that can potentially be flooded can help to reduce the negative impact of flood events by supporting the process of land use planning in areas exposed to flood hazard.

Araújo, PVN; Amaro, VE; Silva, RM; Lopes, AB

Delimitation of flood areas based on a calibrated a DEM and geoprocessing: case study on the Uruguay River, Itaqui, southern Brazil

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-237-2019

A large proportion of rural households, particularly in the dry land areas, representative for more than 10% of the world's land surface and up to 80% in Morocco, depend for their livelihoods on livestock. They exploit livestock's capacity to live in very harsh environments using herd-mobility at multiple scale level. Understanding the multiple contributions of livestock to the household and national economy raises complex research issues and challenges linked with the multitude of goods and services derived from livestock, their interactions with other family activities, and the local and national context. The objective of our research was therefore to analyse the diversity and assess the resilience of livelihood strategies of farming households oriented to livestock using a set of data collected in the dry land areas (oases and mountainous zones) of Morocco and discuss the livelihood outcome indicators. To achieve this, we have realized a cross-sectional analysis of livelihoods and adaptive capacity, to select a set of pertinent indicators. These indicators have been developed using an adapted version of the Rural Household Multi-Indicator Survey (RHoMIS) toolkit for pastoral and agropastoral household systems. Our results highlight the critical importance of livelihood diversification (off-farm diversification, livestock diversification, and crop diversification) in building household resilience and the livelihood outcomes. While livelihood strategies undoubtedly contribute to livelihood outcomes, there is also a critical iterative process, i.e., livelihood outcomes also influence the livelihood strategies at the farming households. The present work proposes an aggregated indicator of livelihood outcomes allowing us to capture the heterogeneity of living conditions of agropastoral systems by considering the main drivers of this system, i.e., mobility, livestock species, and physiological stage composition of the herd. This approach could constitute a valuable contribution to help fill the knowledge gaps that do not allow policy makers in developing contextualized rural development policies and instruments in these very harsh environments.

Alary, V; Caulfield, ME; Amsidder, L; Juanes, X; Boujenane, I; Sraïri, TM; Sam, A; Hammond, J; Van Wijk, M

Heterogeneity of Resilience of Livelihood Strategies in Pastoral and Agropastoral Farming Systems of Rural Semi-arid to Arid Areas in Morocco

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.723994

Rising evidence over the years reveal that reduction in greenhouse gases emission and adaptation to climate change effects have been unable to resolve the issue of climate change impacts, resulting to losses and damages. This has been attributed to natural, technical and economic constraints. In Nigeria, extreme climate events such as precipitation extremes and floods have been increasingly observed resulting in losses and damages in flood-prone communities. This study was aimed at assessing climate change-related losses and damages due to floods among farm households in riverine areas of Southern Nigeria. A multistage sampling procedure was utilized in selecting 240 households within eight riverine communities in Southern Nigeria. A mixed method research approach was used in eliciting responses from the respondents. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. The market cost approach was used to value the losses and damages due to climate change. The respondents identified flooding as the major climate change hazard in the study location. The major effects of flooding on the livelihood of the respondents were loss of crops (98.6%), rise in food prices (92.8%) and poor health (75.6%). In response to increased climatic threats, farmers adopted various adaptation measures such as altering inputs such as varieties/species, income diversification and chemical fertilizer and pesticide use. The estimated average monetary value of losses and damages in community infrastructure, employ-ment, personal properties, crops and livestock were $28,409.09, $3095.23, $1583.52, $824.60 and $224.16, respectively. Perceived barriers to the respondents' taking adaptation actions in response to climate change-related losses and damages are inadequate government support, poor income of the respondents, high cost of transportation to purchase inputs for climate change adaptation and inadequate knowledge/information on climate change adaptation measures. We recommend that early warning mechanisms and alternative livelihood strategies should be pro-moted in vulnerable areas in order to reduce losses and damages due to climate change.

Amaechina, EC; Anugwa, IQ; Agwu, AE; Ifelunini, AI; Umeonuora, TG; Okwor, CA

Assessing climate change-related losses and damages and adaptation constraints to address them: Evidence from flood-prone riverine communities in Southern Nigeria

Environmental Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2022.100780

Assessing the drought resilience of snow-fed river dependent communities in the arid Western United States has taken on critical importance in response to changing climatic conditions. The process of assessing drought resiliency involves understanding the extent to which snow-fed dependent communities can absorb the effects of uncertain and variable water supplies while acknowledging and encouraging their capacity for adaptation. Participatory research approaches are particularly well suited to assess resiliency in this context because they rely upon local water managers' knowledge and perspectives. The research presented here provides measured insight into local water managers' perceptions of drought resiliency in the Truckee-Carson River System in northwestern Nevada. These findings are reported in the context of the collaborative modeling research design developed for this case study. The objectives of this study are: (1) to define resiliency and present a rationale for a participatory approach to assess drought resiliency in snow-fed arid river basins in the Western United States; (2) to outline collaborative modeling as a participatory research design developed for the Truckee-Carson River System case study area; (3) to describe the development and implementation of a resiliency assessment undertaken to implement this research design; (4) to highlight selected results of the assessment, summarizing interviews with 66 water managers in the case study area; (5) to discuss the use of assessment findings to inform collaborative modeling toward adaptation strategies; and (6) to review lessons learned to date from the collaborative modeling case study and note opportunities for further exploration. According to water managers surveyed, climate change is very important and is mobilizing adaptation strategies that include improvements in communication and coordination with other water managers, monitoring and data collection, and planning. The majority of water managers indicate that future adaptation requires modifying institutionalized water management regimes to allow for temporary water leasing programs, water right stacking on the most productive agricultural lands while fallowing marginal lands, incentivizing water conservation, reducing or eliminating residential landscaping, and recruiting less water intensive industry to the region.

Singletary, L; Sterle, K

Collaborative Modeling to Assess Drought Resiliency of Snow-Fed River Dependent Communities in the Western United States: A Case Study in the Truckee-Carson River System

Water

https://doi.org/10.3390/w9020099

The unusual situation that arose due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the 65-day fishing ban (national policy to boost depleted fish stocks) affected the lower-income fishing communities in coastal Bangladesh. Shocks and stresses were posed, and community people adopted strategies to adapt to the changes. In the process of adaptation, social-ecological systems resilience at different levels plays a crucial role. Though resilience is acknowledged as multilevel feature, studies on the interaction between the levels while understanding communities' responses to shock and stress are limited. Thus, in this study, we explored the shocks and stresses the fishing community faced and their views on the resilience feature at different levels (i.e., individual, household, and community level) in coastal Bangladesh during the COVID-19 pandemic and 65-day fishing ban period. The study found that the most resilience promoting features (e.g., diversified livelihood, friendship, and network of supports) were adopted at the individual and household levels. However, positive and negative interactions were explored between resilience features at all levels. Low community-level resilience was not translated into a lack of household-level resilience, and strong individual-level resilience did not mean high household-level resilience. It was noted that the increased resilience of a particular individual or household could negatively affect community resilience. Resilience features showed inconsistent interactions within or among the three levels' resilience features. The study also revealed that multilevel resilience features stressed the importance of combining persistence (i.e., keeping fishing as the main livelihood) and adaptation process (e.g., livelihood diversification). The study showcases the importance of considering multilevel resilience that offers insight into crucial resilience factors which would not be evident if only one level were studied. The overall finding of this study will contribute to framing governance strategies to ensure sustainable coastal management even in the time of any abrupt or expected changes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the fishing ban policy.

Sultana, R; Irfanullah, HM; Selim, SA; Raihan, ST; Bhowmik, J; Ahmed, SG

Multilevel Resilience of Fishing Communities of Coastal Bangladesh Against Covid-19 Pandemic and 65-Day Fishing Ban

Frontiers In Marine Science

https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.721838

Several decision support systems were developed in recent years to encourage climate adaptation planning in coastal areas, especially at a national to global scale. However, few prototypes are easy to use and accessible for decision-makers to evaluate and manage risks locally. DESYCO is a GIS based decision support system specifically designed to better understand the risks that climate change poses at the regional/subnational scale (e.g. the effect of sea level rise and coastal erosion on human assets and ecosystems) and set the context of strategic adaptation planning within Integrated Coastal Zone Management. It implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology allowing the spatial assessment of multiple climate change impacts in coastal areas and the ranking of key elements at risk (beaches, wetlands, protected areas, urban and agricultural areas). The core of the system is a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) model used to operationalize the steps of the RRA (hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage assessment) by integrating a blend of information from climate scenarios (global/regional climate projections and hydrodynamic/hydrological simulations) and from non-climate vulnerability factors (physical, environmental and socio-economic features of the analysed system). User-friendly interfaces simplify the interaction with the system, providing guidance for risk mapping, results communication and understanding. DESYCO was applied to low-lying coastal plains and islands (the North Adriatic Sea, the Gulf of Gabes and the Republic of Mauritius), river basins and groundwater systems (Upper Plain of Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Marche Region). The paper presents the RRA methodology, the structure of DESYCO and its software architecture, showing the capabilities of the tool to support decision making and climate proofing in a wide range of situations (e.g. shoreline planning, land use and water resource management, flood risk reduction). (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Torresan, S; Critto, A; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Furlan, E; Marcomini, A

DESYCO: A decision support system for the regional risk assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones

Ocean & Coastal Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.11.003

Climate change poses a challenge to agricultural production and its impacts vary depending on regional focus and on the type of production system. To avoid production losses and make use of emerging potentials, adaptations in agricultural management will inevitably be required. Adaptation responses can broadly be distinguished into (1) short-term incremental responses that farmers often choose autonomously in response to observed changes and based on local knowledge and experiences, and (2) long-term transformative responses that require strategic planning, and which are usually implemented at a larger spatial scale. Models can be used to support decision making at both response levels; thereby, different features of models prove more or less valuable depending on the type of adaptation response. This paper presents a systematic literature review on the state-of-the-art in modelling for adaptation planning in agricultural production systems, investigating the question of which model types can be distinguished and how these types differ in the way they support decision making in agricultural adaptation planning. Five types of models are distinguished: (1) empirical crop models; (2) regional suitability models; (3) biophysical models; (4) meta-models; and (5) decision models. The potential and limitations of these model types for providing decision-support to short-and long-term adaptation planning are discussed. The risk of maladaptation-adaptation that implies negative consequences either in the long term or in a wider context-is identified as a key challenge of adaptation planning that needs more attention. Maladaptation is not only a risk of decision making in the face of incomplete knowledge of future climate impacts on the agricultural production system; but it can also be a threat if the connectedness of the agroecosystem is not sufficiently acknowledged when management adaptations are implemented. Future research supporting climate change adaptation efforts should thus be based on integrated assessments of risk and vulnerabilities (considering climate variability and uncertainty). To secure adaptation success in the long term, frameworks for monitoring management adaptations and their consequences should be institutionalised.

Holzkämper, A

Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Climate Change-What's the Use of Models?

Agriculture-Basel

https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture7100086

The role of the private sector in climate finance is increasingly emphasized in international political debates. Knowledge of private engagement in mitigating climate change and in more advanced economies is growing, but the evidence base for private-sector engagement in climate change adaptation in developing countries remains weak. Starting from the premise that the private sector's role in adaptation is often inevitable and potentially significant, this article first analyses the potential of private-sector engagement in adaptation and adaptation financing in developing countries by conceptualizing the private sector's roles and motivation therein. For further inquiry, and for a discussion based on a developing-country context, interviews were conducted with key stakeholders for adaptation of Zambia's agricultural sector, including on ways in which the government can incentivize private-sector engagement in adaptation.How much private-sector adaptation and adaptation finance can be identified depends on the interpretation of the concept of adaptation. Under a broad interpretation, the domestic private sector in particular can contribute substantially to adaptation, both directly and indirectly, through its investments and activities. However, the international private sector's role in financing adaptation should be analysed under a strict interpretation of adaptation and appears limited.Policy relevanceInternational political debates increasingly stress the importance of private climate finance, yet are constrained by vagueness around the private sector's role in adaptation finance. This article conceptualizes and scrutinizes private-sector engagement in adaptation and adaptation finance in developing countries. It concludes that the domestic private sector in particular can contribute substantially to adaptation in direct and indirect ways, and that domestic policies incentivize such contributions. However, international private financing of adaptation is more limited and its analysis requires a stricter interpretation of adaptation. Private-sector engagement in adaptation and adaptation finance can supplement, but not substitute for, public investments in adaptation. These limitations are particularly important when discussing private adaptation finance as part of the developed countries' pledge to mobilize US$100 billion of climate finance per annum from 2020 onwards.

Pauw, WP

Not a panacea: private-sector engagement in adaptation and adaptation finance in developing countries

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2014.953906

This paper addresses one of the most pressing drivers of risk: land use planning and pressures placed on land use by private and public investors. Three case studies are developed, analyzing both private and public investment decisions and the interplay between regulations, acting as various incentives or disincentives. In Vietnam, dynamic urbanization is linked to political liberalization in terms of migration, private industries, land markets and urban planning. This has resulted in rapid urban growth, thereby increasing risk through urban sprawl into hazard prone areas that had previously been kept clear of urban development. In northwestern Spain, the A Frouxeira seashore lagoon and wetland are severely threatened by agriculture expansion, dune mining, tree plantations, tourism and the Prestige oil spill in 2002, which placed significant pressures on this fragile ecosystem, leading to social and environmental conflicts. Finally in Nepal, poor food security, landslides and changing climate conditions are pushing people out of mountainous areas to the plains and abroad, leading to illegal settlements springing up in flood-prone riverbanks. Governance is inadequate to prevent these illegal settlements but the city has now become liable for the safety of persons residing in these dangerous areas. These cases highlight how private and public investments at various levels are increasing risks and what public solutions are envisaged, if at all, to address these risks, while highlighting the difficult trade-offs between development, risk and governance. Perhaps one of the strongest arguments in favor of risk sensitive land use planning is its cost-effectiveness, considering the high costs of structural measures to reducing risk. This can include ecosystem-based approaches as part of integrated planning, an often overlooked element of DRR for mitigating hazards, reducing vulnerabilities by providing livelihood resources and even exposure when dangerous areas are converted to green belts. Finally, we conclude that more effective risk reduction is possible through improved spatial planning. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sudmeier-Rieux, K; Paleo, UF; Garschagen, M; Estrella, M; Renaud, FG; Jaboyedoff, M

Opportunities, incentives and challenges to risk sensitive land use planning: Lessons from Nepal, Spain and Vietnam

International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.09.009

Coastal development in small islands needs adapting to climate and ecosystem changes in the Anthropocene era. Understanding variability of coastal vulnerability along the entire coastline informs coastal planning and management at an island-wide scale as some coastal stretches are more appropriate for big-scale development, while others require additional coastal protection and/or ecosystem conservation. To date, few researches focused on developing macro-scale coastal vulnerability index at an island or archipelagic-scale. This paper fills a knowledge gap by developing an integrated coastal vulnerability index (ICVI) for nine small islands in the Azores archipelago. Considering that degree of vulnerability varies according to human-environment traits of each coastal stretch, this paper characterises integrated coastal vulnerability according to three broad attributes, i.e. exposure to external stressors, biophysical features and socioeconomic characteristics. Using field work, semi-quantitative analysis and GIS, ICVI is a simple and relatively quick approach that provides a broad overview of coastal vulnerability in small island context. A set of six accessible and representative parameters was employed as indicators for this vulnerability assessment, i.e. type of cliff; type of beach; coastal defences; exposure to swell/storm waves; outcrop flooded and land-use. The entire coastline of each island was divided into segments according to their geomorphic compartments and subsequently assigned with a relative ICVI value. Each segment was ranked into five classes ranging from very low to very high based on its relative degree of vulnerability. While majority of the coasts are of moderate relative vulnerability in the Azores, vulnerability varies broadly along the coast between low, moderate and high. The ICVI approach serves as a useful decision support tool to facilitate effective planning and management for the Azores small islands and the methodology has the flexibility of being scaled deep by adding more indicators where necessary and available or scaled out to other small islands. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ng, K; Borges, P; Phillips, MR; Medeiros, A; Calado, H

An integrated coastal vulnerability approach to small islands: The Azores case

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.013

Emerging threats such as climate change and urbanisation pose an unprecedented challenge to the integrated management of urban wastewater systems, which are expected to function in a reliable, resilient and sustainable manner regardless of future conditions. Traditional long term planning is rather limited in developing no-regret strategies that avoid maladaptive lock-ins in the near term and allow for flexibility in the long term. In this study, a novel adaptation pathways approach for urban wastewater management is developed in order to explore the compliance and adaptability potential of intervention strategies in a long term operational period, accounting for different future scenarios and multiple performance objectives in terms of reliability, resilience and sustainability. This multi-criteria multi-scenario approach implements a regret-based method to assess the relative performance of two types of adaptation strategies: (I) standalone strategies (i.e. green or grey strategies only); and (II) hybrid strategies (i.e. combined green and grey strategies). A number of adaptation thresholds (i.e. the points at which the current strategy can no longer meet defined objectives) are defined to identify compliant domains (i.e. periods of time in a future scenario when the performance of a strategy can meet the targets). The results obtained from a case study illustrate the trade-off between adapting to short term pressures and addressing long term challenges. Green strategies show the highest performance in simultaneously meeting near and long term needs, while grey strategies are found less adaptable to changing circumstances. In contrast, hybrid strategies are effective in delivering both short term compliance and long term adaptability. It is also shown that the proposed adaption pathways method can contribute to the identification of adaptation strategies that are developed as future conditions unfold, allowing for more flexibility and avoiding long term commitment to strategies that may cause maladaptation. This provides insights into the near term and long term planning of ensuring the reliability, resilience and sustainability of integrated urban drainage systems. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sadr, SMK; Casal-Campos, A; Fu, GT; Farmani, R; Ward, S; Butler, D

Strategic planning of the integrated urban wastewater system using adaptation pathways

Water Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2020.116013

Floods increasingly threaten disadvantaged communities around the globe. When limited financial resources are available, nature-based and community-based incremental adaptation that codifies existing actions and behaviours can help protect people and assets through risk reduction management. These adaptation measures mainly rely on non-financial capital that can be appropriate alternatives when financial resources are limited, especially within the context of disadvantaged communities. There are, however, challenges in implementing such adaptation measures, including differential power relationships that might lead to misallocation of benefits. We propose a polycentric governance framework that can enhance stakeholder engagement and mobilize various forms of non-financial capital to trigger a web of incremental adaptation measures through four support mechanisms: technological investment, institutional enhancement, knowledge production, and environmental protection. We further discuss how various facilitating factors, including (i) communication and transportation infrastructure, (ii) flexible laws/regulations, (iii) risk communication, and (iv) environmental restoration, can increase the likelihood of success in application of the framework. A successful application of the proposed framework also necessitates development of a research agenda around suitable non-financial metrics for monitoring and evaluating the performance of the proposed strategies. In addition, learning from new developments in general societal protection and resilience in communities with relatively large financial capital and experiences of practicing polycentric governance in disadvantaged communities may facilitate the implementation of polycentric governance-based disaster risk reduction globally. Key policy insights In communities with limited financial resources, nature-based and community-based incremental adaptation (IA) can help protect people and assets through risk reduction management. The proposed polycentric governance framework can enhance stakeholder engagement and mobilize various forms of non-financial capital to trigger a web of IA measures. Technological investment, institutional enhancement, knowledge production, and environmental protection are the foundational support mechanisms for a successful IA. Communication and transportation infrastructure, flexible legal and regulatory frameworks, risk communication, and environmental restoration are the four principal facilitating factors embedded in our proposed approach to enable IA.

Moftakhari, H; Shao, WY; Moradkhani, H; AghaKouchak, A; Sanders, B; Matthew, R; Jones, S; Orbinski, J

Enabling incremental adaptation in disadvantaged communities: polycentric governance with a focus on non-financial capital

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1833824

There is a growing perception that science is not responding adequately to the global challenges of the 21st century. Addressing complicated, wicked current and future environmental issues requires insights and methods from many disciplines. Furthermore, to reach social robustness in a context of uncertainty and multiple values and objectives, participation of relevant social actors is required. As a consequence, interdisciplinary research teams with stakeholder or practitioner involvement are becoming an emerging pattern for the organization of integrative scientific research or integrated assessments. Nevertheless, still there is need to learn from actual experiences that bring together decision makers and scholars from different disciplines. This paper draws lessons from a self-reflective study of the collaborative process in two interdisciplinary, multi-institutional, multinational research teams addressing linkages between climate variability, human decisions and agricultural ecosystems in the Argentine Pampas. During project design, attention must be placed on team composition, ensuring not only that the needed talents are included, but also recruiting investigators with an open attitude toward interdisciplinary interaction. As the project begins, considerable effort must be dedicated to shared problem definition and development of a common language. Simple conceptual models and considerable redundancy in communication are helpful. As a project evolves, diverging institutional incentives, tensions between academic publication and outreach or policy-relevant outputs, disciplinary biases, and personality issues play increasingly important roles. Finally, toward a project's end the challenge arises of assessing interdisciplinary, integrative work. The lack of consensus on criteria for assessment of results is often ranked as a major practical difficulty of this kind of research. Despite many efforts to describe and characterize collaborative research on complex problems, conditions for success (including the very definition of success) remain to be rigorously grounded on actual cases. Toward this goal, we argue that a self-reflective process to identify and intervene on factors that foster or impede cooperative production of knowledge should be an essential component of integrated assessments involving scientists, practitioners and stakeholders. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Podestá, GP; Natenzon, CE; Hidalgo, C; Toranzo, FR

Interdisciplinary production of knowledge with participation of stakeholders: A case study of a collaborative project on climate variability, human decisions and agricultural ecosystems in the Argentine Pampas

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.008

Cities face increasing risks due to climate change, and many cities are actively working towards increasing their climate resilience. Climate change-induced risks and interventions to reduce these risks do not only impact urban risk management systems and infrastructures, but also people's daily lives. In order to build public support for climate adaptation and resilience-building and stimulate collaboration between authorities and citizens, it is necessary that adaptation and resilience-building are locally meaningful. Thus, interventions should be rooted in citizens' concerns and aspirations for their city. Urban policymakers and researchers have started the search for better citizen participation in adaptation. However, tools to connect the relatively strategic and long-term notions of adaptation to a gradually changing climate held by planners and scientists with how citizens experience today's climate and weather remain elusive. This paper investigates the use of 'narratives of change' as an approach to elicit perceptions of past, present and future weather, water, and climate, and how these relate to citizens' desired futures. We tested this by eliciting and comparing narratives of change from authorities and from citizens in the Dutch city of Dordrecht. Our analysis of the process showed that historical events, embedded in local memory and identity, have a surprisingly strong impact on how climate change is perceived and acted upon today. This contributes to an awareness and sense of urgency of some climate risks (e.g. flood risks). However, it also shifts attention away from other risks (e.g. intensified heat stress). The analysis highlighted commonalities, like shared concerns about climate change and desires to collaborate, but also differences in how climate change, impacts, and action are conceptualized. There are possibilities for collaboration and mutual learning, as well as areas of potential disagreement and conflict. We conclude that narratives are a useful tool to better connect the governance of climate adaptation with peoples' daily experience of climate risks and climate resilience, thereby potentially increasing public support for and participation in resilience-building.

Marschütz, B; Bremer, S; Runhaar, H; Hegger, D; Mees, H; Vervoort, J; Wardekker, A

Local narratives of change as an entry point for building urban climate resilience

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100223