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The changing environment, climate, and the increasing manifestation of disasters, has generated an increased demand for accurate and timely weather information. This information is provided by the National meteorological authorities (NMAs) through different dissemination channels e.g., using radios, Televisions, emails among others. The use of ICTs to provide weather information is recently gaining popularity. A study was conducted in three countries, namely Nigeria, Uganda, and South Sudan to assess the efficiency of an ICT tool, known as Weather Information Dissemination System. The study involved 254 participants (Uganda: 71; South Sudan: 133; and Nigeria: 50). The collected primary data were first quality controlled and organized thematically for detailed analysis. Descriptive statistics was used to provide quantitative analysis as well as content scrutinized for qualitative analysis. The results showed that there is a need for timely weather information to plan farming activities such as planting and application of fertilizers and pesticides as well as to manage flood and drought by the water sector and disaster management. Results further showed that the majority of the respondents have access to the technology needed to access weather and climate information. The respondents who received weather information from NMAs noted that the forecast was good. However, they further noted that there is more room for improvement especially with making the forecasts location-specific, ensuring mobile access is adequate in all regions, provision of weather information by SMS (in countries where this service is currently unavailable) and improved timing of the weather information. Finally, uncertainty about the accuracy of weather information and the weather information not meeting specific needs are key barriers to people's willingness to pay for it (Uganda: 33.3%; South Sudan: 46.1%; and Nigeria: 33.3%). Improved collaborations between the NMAs, ICT service providers, policymakers and farmers will facilitate an effective approach to weather information access and dissemination. Innovative sensitization approaches through the media houses will enable better understanding of weather products and utilization, and access to enabling ICTs would increase access to weather forecasts

Sansa-Otim, J; Nsabagwa, M; Mwesigwa, A; Faith, B; Owoseni, M; Osuolale, O; Mboma, D; Khemis, B; Albino, P; Ansah, SO; Ahiataku, MA; Owusu-Tawia, V; Bashiru, Y; Mugume, I; Akol, R; Kunya, N; Odongo, RI

An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Weather Information Dissemination among Farmers and Policy Makers

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su14073870

Climate change adaptation is one of the most crucial issues in developing countries like Bangladesh. The main objective was to understand the linkage of participation with Community Based Adaptation (CBA) to climate change. Institutional framework following different types of conceptual theories (collective action, group, game and social learning theory) was utilized to analyze the participatory process in local community level Village Disaster Mangement Committee (VDMC) that works in collaboration with local government. Field level data was collected through interview and group discussion during 25 April to 30 May 2015 in the Teesta riverine area of northern Bangladesh. Results showed that flood and drought were the major climate change impacts in the study area, and various participatory tools were used for risk assessment and undertaking action plans to overcome the climate change challenges by the group VDMC. Participation in VDMC generated both relational and technical outcomes. The relational outcomes are the informal institutional changes through which local community adopt technological adaptation measures. Although, limitations like bargaining problem, free riding or conflict were found in collective decision making, but the initiation of local governance like VDMC has brought various institutional change in the communities in terms of adaptation practices. More than 80% VDMC and around 40-55% non-VDMC household respondents agreed that overall community based adaptation process was successful in the previous year. They believed that some innovative practices had been brought in the community through VDMC action for climate change adaptation. No doubt that the CBA has achieved good progress to achieve the government Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) strategy of climate change adaptation. But, there is still lack of coordination among local government, NGOs and civil partners in working together. Research related to socio-economic impact analysis for the sustainability of adaptation measures implemented through local community could be undertaken in future. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Karim, MR; Thiel, A

Role of community based local institution for climate change adaptation in the Teesta riverine area of Bangladesh

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.06.002

Social and economic inequality are increasingly linked with greater vulnerability and compromised resilience for communities navigating ecological and institutional change. We focused on social resilience; i.e., the ability of foundational social institutions of sharing and cooperation in three Arctic Indigenous communities to maintain key social processes and structures in response to contemporary challenges. We explored two propositions: first, sharing and cooperation are distributional processes that increase the equality of access to wild foods at the community level. Second, sharing and cooperation embody cultural mechanisms that express trust and build social cohesion. Our analyses were based on household-level harvest and social network data that represented social ties and magnitudes of wild foods flowing from crews and between households. Qualitative and quantitative results indicated that material, emotional, and cultural outcomes of sharing and cooperation act across social levels-households to communities-to increase equality and equity. For all three communities, Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients indicated that distributions of wild food were more equal when sharing, cooperative-provisioning, and self-provisioning were considered than household self-provisioning alone. Network regressions emphasized close kinship and total harvest as social mechanisms strongly predictive of sharing outflows across communities (i.e., people share with family, and the more you have, the more you give). Income effects were mixed. There was evidence of different forms of need-based sharing in all communities, which suggests that social relationships also act as mechanisms to improve equity. Qualitative results linked decisions to share and cooperate with outcomes of well-being, and cultural integrity at household and community levels. While production of wild foods occurs at greater-than-household scales, the State manages wild food production at individual and household scales, which sets up conflicts between Indigenous communities and the State. Sharing and cooperative networks embedded in Arctic mixed economies are culturally derived and place-based institutions. Redistribution of resources through these networks, and the maintenance of social relationships to activate networks in times of need, increase the equality of outcomes -and therefore social resilience-at the community level in the face of rapid change.

BurnSilver, SB; Coleman, JM; Magdanz, J

Equality and equity in Arctic communities: how household-level social relations support community-level social resilience

Ecology And Society

https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13479-270331

Climate science is complex and sometimes controversial. One of the challenges for coastal adaptation is spanning the boundary between the technical scientists and other stakeholders including local communities and decision-makers. The technical science is very much the domain of professional climatologists, meteorologists, modellers, oceanographers, biologists and geomorphologists. However, the application of this science to the strategic and tactical management of a local coast and ocean requires applied knowledge about the particular coast and the marine environment, including its vulnerability, community values, local politics and relationships, and formal and informal decision-making pathways. We suggest here that there are many organisations and individuals who play important roles in spanning these boundaries. Their roles include some or all of the following: bringing stakeholders together to negotiate pathways forward; translating the complex technical science into terms useful for management and conveying the needs of management or community to scientists; facilitating new applied knowledge and awareness through deliberations; and mediating conflict resulting from different priorities among the stakeholders. In this paper we focus on organisations and agents who are endeavouring to cross these long-standing boundaries and successfully move climate science information between the knowledge-makers and decision-makers in Australian coastal communities. We use two case studies to examine the opportunities and challenges for the uptake of climate science in these communities. The first case study (Ocean Watch: a potential boundary organisation for enabling climate science uptake in the commercial fishing industry) is on enabling climate science uptake in the fishing industry through the potential role of a not-for-profit organisation. The second (Northern Agricultural Catchments Council: managing boundaries for coastal adaptation in the City of Geraldton and its region) explores planning for the coastal town of Geraldton, Western Australia and its surrounding region. For each case study we analyse the functions of convening, collaborating, translating and mediating played by boundary organisations and boundary spanners. We then assess their capacity to enhance the salience, credibility and legitimacy of the process. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shaw, J; Danese, C; Stocker, L

Spanning the boundary between climate science and coastal communities: Opportunities and challenges

Ocean & Coastal Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2012.11.008

This research is based on the need to develop methodology for climate change vulnerability assessment in coastal cities. While there have been some studies on the development of methodologies for vulnerability assessment on a national scale, there have been few attempts to develop a method for local vulnerability assessment with application to coastal cities. The objective of this study was to develop a general methodology to assess vulnerability to climate change and to apply it to the metropolitan coastal city of Busan in South Korea. We followed the conceptual framework for assessing climate change vulnerability provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is composed of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Sea level rises of 0.5 m, 1 m, 2 m, and 3 m were considered as the climate exposure. Sensitivity to sea level rise was measured based on the percentage of flooded area calculated using flood simulation with a GIS tool. The population density and the population at age 65 years and over were also included in the calculation of sensitivity index. Sensitivities to heat wave and heavy rainstorm were quantified using the expert opinions from the Delphi survey and information on land use classification. Adaptive capacity was assessed in three sections: economic capability, infrastructure, and institutional capabilities. By combining the adaptive capacity and three different sensitivities, vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR-V), vulnerability to heavy rainstorm (HR-V), and vulnerability to heat wave (HW-V) were separately evaluated in 16 counties of Busan. Using cluster analysis, we could classify four major groups of counties based on SLR-V, HR-V. HW-V, and reported damage cost. For clustered groups, different adaptation strategies were suggested based on the different vulnerability patterns. Application of our methodology to Busan indicated that our methodology is easy to use and provides concrete policy implications when setting up adaptation strategies. The methodology developed in this study could also be used in mainstreaming climate change into Integrated Coastal Management (ICM). (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Yoo, G; Hwang, JH; Choi, C

Development and application of a methodology for vulnerability assessment of climate change in coastal cities

Ocean & Coastal Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2011.04.001

The northeastern part of Bangladesh is characterized by a unique wetland ecosystem called haor, which experiences regular monsoon flooding starting from late May/June. But change in rainfall pattern over last few decades has resulted in increased risk of early monsoon flash floods like the flood of 2017, which wreaked havoc in the haor at the beginning of April. Through a cross sectional survey covering 1845 flood affected households, the present study aims at understanding this flood's effects on their livelihoods and recommending policies to safeguard livelihoods in the face of changing climate. Analysis of rainfall and river water level data revealed that heavy rainfall in the haor and adjacent Indian sub-catchments were the main reasons behind this unprecedented event. Loss of income because of this flood was common, but was more prevalent among the older respondents, people having lower educational attainment and persons dependent on natural resources-based occupations. Most of the people who were forced to switch occupations experienced reduction in average daily income, irrespective of whatever occupations they switched to. Food insecurity was common among all groups, but was predominant among fishermen and day labourers. Integrated measures including development of real-time early warning system, community-based early response, proper management of crop protection embankments and regular dredging of waterways are essential to reduce the vulnerability of the people to flood. Furthermore, rapid expansion of newly developed short duration rice varieties (e.g. BRRI dhan 81), employment of case seedlings/raised-bed seedlings in elevated lands to ensure high quality timely transplantation immediately after recession of stagnant water, introduction of other profitable crops, poultry and dairy farming (e.g. sheep farming), creation of skill-based alternative livelihood options to adapt the agriculture sector with the changing climate. An equitable investment by the government is crucial to foster the economic growth by ending poverty by 2030, and to secure decent income, better livelihood and food security of the haor inhabitants.

Dey, NC; Parvez, M; Islam, MR

A study on the impact of the 2017 early monsoon flash flood: Potential measures to safeguard livelihoods from extreme climate events in the haor area of Bangladesh

International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102247

Although many previous studies have established the instability threshold of flooded people in terms of velocity and depth, considering that the hydrodynamic instability of people is a multiple -factor-affected phenomenon involving a complex human body-floodwater interaction, how some factors affect the hydrodynamic instability behaviour of pedestrians in floodwaters remains vague but is necessary to support flood risk management and implement tailored risk reduction stra-tegies. In this study, we adopt different physical human-body models to represent pedestrians in a quasi-natural state and test their instability thresholds in a controlled flume under six different conditions. Preliminary experimental results show that (i) the turbulent intensity of the flood-water may play a role in causing the instability of human body, and an upgraded threshold formula that accounts for this effect has been proposed; (ii) an adult's instability threshold is much higher than a child, while a female wearing a pair of heels even has a higher instability threshold than a male, particularly in deep water; (iii) the orientation of the human body also affects the instability threshold: 90 degrees yields the highest stability, 180 degrees and 45 degrees are the second and the third, while 0 degrees has the lowest value; (iv) a postural adjustment of pedestrians against the floodwater affects safety as well; (v) increasing friction tends to lead to an increased instability threshold at low depths, while friction appears to be inconsequential at moderate to large depths; (vi) a tandem arrangement of people in a crowd is more favourable to the security of a flooded child at the end of the crowd, while a parallel arrangement of the crowd reduces the safety of a child in the middle of the crowd, and a staggered arrangement yields moderate safety; (vii) the presence of a building directly in front of the flooded pedestrian markedly improves their safety, while the blocking effect due to lateral buildings plays little role. This study provides some experimental evidence and possible physical insights regarding the hydrodynamic safety of pe-destrians in urban flooding.

Zhu, ZF; Zhang, YP; Gou, LF; Peng, DZ; Pang, B

On the physical vulnerability of pedestrians in urban flooding: Experimental study of the hydrodynamic instability of a human body model in floodwater

Urban Climate

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101420

The study applies vulnerability index models to appraise livelihood vulnerability to climate change of human communities living in coastal fronts of some selectedmouzasof Namkhana Block part of the Indian Sundarbans. Primary household surveys (528 households in sevenmouzas) are carried out to procure data on indicators of socio-demographic profile, livelihood strategies, health, food, water, social networks, natural disaster and climatic fluctuations. The data then have been processed by indices like livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and livelihood vulnerability index-intergovernmental panel on climate change (LVI-IPCC) to evaluate and compare vulnerabilities ofmouzascurrently suffering from physical processes like coastal erosion, embankment breaching and flood events. The research outcome implies that Baliara and Iswaripurmouzasare highly vulnerable (LVI score > 0.600 and LVI-IPCC score > 0.170); Narayanpur, Mousuni, Kusumtalamouzasare moderately vulnerable (LVI score 0.540-0.600 and LVI-IPCC score 0.060-0.170); and Bagdanga, Patibaniamouzasare least vulnerable (LVI score > 0.540 and LVI-IPCC score < 0.060) to changing climate phenomena. The foremost reasons behind higher vulnerability are greater exposure to climatic fluctuation, natural hazards and higher sensitivity to improper access to food, health, water and finally lower adaptive capacity in terms of poor socio-demographic profile and livelihood security. Findings of the study provide a deeper understanding of people's perception, adaptation and their ever-increasing vulnerability to changing climate. This approach based on indicators emphasizes sectors that necessitate particular intercession to design management plans for threatened communities. Such type of pragmatic approach of study formulates reliable methodology to quantify vulnerability and develop disaster management strategies to increase the resilience of vulnerable coastal people to climate change.

Mukherjee, N; Siddique, G

Assessment of climatic variability risks with application of livelihood vulnerability indices

Environment Development And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-019-00415-3

Under changing climate, more frequent and severe extreme climate events have been causing both economic and non-economic losses and damages to local communities living in disaster-prone areas. Based on 14 focused group discussions, 20 in-depth interviews, and eight key informant interviews, this study sought to understand the losses and damages experienced by rural communities in three locations of Bangladesh, which are vulnerable to riverine and flash floods or cyclones, associated surges & coastal flooding, and salinity intrusion. This paper first captured people's perception about different extreme climate events and other climatic stressors affecting their lives and livelihoods. Considering the latest extreme climate events, the study estimated the economic loss and damage of individual households - in housing, agriculture, and health sectors - ranging from US$ 568 to US$ 1054 per household per event. These losses and damages were highest in the south-western coast than the two flood-prone areas in the north and north-east, since multiple hazards were causing relatively longer impacts on the coast. As non-economic losses and damages, change in productive land, stressed mental, emotional, and physical wellbeing, sacrificing celebrations, temporary migration, and permanent change in profession were common in all three locations. The study also found that increased adaptive capacity enabled households to address their extreme climate event-related impacts. Households of the study locations, who got exposed to information and communication technology, as participants of a grassroots development project, have improved their coping and adaptation strategies by using the accessed information, technologies, and training. They improved their income by changing agricultural practices and diversifying livelihood options. They also developed leadership, entrepreneurial skills, and connectivity with different social and institutional networks. Building on this evidence, this paper proposed a conceptual framework showcasing the relationships of adaptive capacity with anticipated higher loss and damage scenarios under changing climate. This research concluded that more investment on raising adaptive capacity of households living in climate vulnerable locations is highly required to minimize loss and damage in the projected climate change scenarios.

Bhowmik, J; Irfanullah, HM; Selim, SA

Empirical evidence from Bangladesh of assessing climate hazard-related loss and damage and state of adaptive capacity to address them

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100273

Climate change and climate variability affect weather patterns and cause shifts in seasons with serious repercussions such as declining food production and productivity for communities and households in Kenya. To mitigate the negative impacts of climate change and variability, farming households have been encouraged to adopt different strategies such as new crop varieties, crop and livestock diversification, and water-harvesting technologies. These adaptation strategies are expected to boost both the amount of food produced and food security of an adapting household; which in this case is defined one that has taken up one or more of the twenty-five climate change and climate variability adaptation techniques identified during the study. Using maize yield equivalent (MYE), which expresses farm production in equivalent kgs of maize grain, as a measure of total crop production and food security, this study assessed the factors influencing adaptation to climate change and climate variability, and the implications of adaptation for food security. To accomplish these objectives, an endogenous switching regression model was applied to household survey data of 658 households from 38 counties in Kenya. The results demonstrated that increases in mean air temperature and precipitation influenced levels of food production either negatively or positively depending on whether they occur at harvest, land preparation or during crop growing periods. The type of soil also influenced productivity as households living in areas with different soil types produce varying quantities of MYE in kgs/ha of land. Household characteristics and ownership of farm assets also influenced adaptation. By comparing production of adapting and non-adapting households, we demonstrated that households adapting to climate change and climate variability through uptake of technologies such as early planting, use of improved crop varieties, and crop diversification produced 4877 kgs of MYE/ha per year against 3238 kgs of MYE/ha per year for households that did not adapt (a 33.6% difference between the two groups). Given the nature of for smallscale households who produce mainly for household consumption, high crop yields translate to increased food security. We can therefore conclude that successful adaptation to climate change and climate variability significantly increases food security in Kenya.

Kabubo-Mariara, J; Mulwa, R

Adaptation to climate change and climate variability and its implications for household food security in Kenya

Food Security

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-019-00965-4

Adaptation to climate change has become an important matter of discussion in the world in response to the growing rate of global warming. In recent years, many countries have gradually adopted adaption strategies to climate change, with the aim of reducing the impact of climate variabilities. Taiwan is in a geographical location that is prone to natural disasters and is thus very vulnerable to climate change. To explore an appropriate method for Taiwan to adapt to climate change, this study took Dajia River Basin as the simulation site to explore the potential climate change impact in the area. An impact study was conducted to identify the trend of flooding under climate change scenarios. We used the SOBEK model to simulate downstream inundation caused by the worst typhoon event of the 20th century (1979-2003) and for typhoon events that might occur at the end of the 21st century (2075-2099) in Taiwan, according to the climate change scenario of representative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) and dynamical downscaling rainfall data. Agricultural lands were found to be the most affected areas among all land types, and the flooded area was forecast to increase by 1.89 times by the end of 21st century, when compared to the end of 20th century. In this study, upland crops, which are affected the most by flooding, were selected as the adaptation targets for this site and multiple engineering and non-engineering options were presented to reduce the potential climate change impacts. With respect to the results, we found that all adaptation options, even when considering the cost, yield higher benefits than the do-nothing option. Among the adaptation options presented for this site, utilizing engineering methods with non-engineering methods show the best result in effectively reducing the impact of climate change, with the benefit-to-cost ratio being around 1.16. This study attempts to explore useful and effective assessment methods for providing sound scientific and economic evidence for the selection of adequate adaption options for flood impacts in agriculture in the planning phase.

Li, HC; Hsiao, YH; Chang, CW; Chen, YM; Lin, LY

Agriculture Adaptation Options for Flood Impacts under Climate Change-A Simulation Analysis in the Dajia River Basin

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137311

Smallholder farmers' capacities need to be strengthened to enable them to better withstand the upcoming impacts of climate change; these capacities not only include the responsive capacity, but also consider innovation, learning, and anticipation to be prepared for the projected impacts of a changing climate on the agriculture system. The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of climate smart agriculture (CSA) innovations on building climate resilience capacity in smallholder agriculture systems. A cross-sectional household survey was conducted among a multi-stage sample of 424 smallholder farmers selected from five agroecosystems of the Upper Blue Nile Highlands in Ethiopia. The study used an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model to examine the impact of CSA innovations on building climate resilience capacity among smallholder farmers. The true average adoption effects of climate resilience capacity under actual and counterfactual conditions showed that different CSA innovations have different effects on the climate resilience capacity of households. Except for SWC adopters, all CSA innovations significantly increased the climate resilience capacity of households. However, improved variety, crop residue management, and SWC have more profound effects on the non-adopters than adopters, =if non-adopters had adopted these CSA innovations. Strong absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities through strong disaster and early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, a strong public agricultural extension system, a strong informal safety net, and social networks build a climate-resilient agriculture system among smallholder farmers. Thus, scaling up of CSA innovations may expand the benefit of CSA innovation on building the climate resilience capacities of households. Thus, strong risk management, disaster mitigation and early warning systems, adaptive strategies, information and training, informal safety nets, social networks, and infrastructure use may build the climate resilience capacity of smallholder farmers by facilitating the adoption of CSA innovation. Therefore, policies that strengthen good governance, social cohesion, disaster communication and early warning systems, input supply of drought-resistant varieties, climate smart extension service, and climate-resilient infrastructure are necessary.

Teklu, A; Simane, B; Bezabih, M

Effect of Climate Smart Agriculture Innovations on Climate Resilience among Smallholder Farmers: Empirical Evidence from the Choke Mountain Watershed of the Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su15054331

Farmers in coastal Bangladesh face significant production and market risks as well as uncertainty about trends in the farming environment. Understanding farmers' perceptions of the risks they currently experience and the fanning and livelihood strategies they adopt to mitigate risk is important to inform policies designed to safeguard coastal livelihoods in the future. In this paper, we draw on a case study of typical village in the coastal zone to explore (1) farmers' perceptions of the cropping risks they face, (2) the implications of risk for the choice of cropping strategies within different farm types, and (3) the role of other farm and non-farm activities in mitigating risk to household livelihoods. Quantitative and qualitative farm-level data were collected through a reconnaissance survey, a village census, a household survey, and household case studies. Farmers saw the shortage of irrigation water in the dry season and uncertain weather patterns as the major sources of production risk. The main source of market risk was the fluctuation in farm-gate demand and prices for dry-season cash crops. Representative budgets were constructed for the major cropping systems practised by small, medium, and large farm households. The riskiness of these systems was simulated, based on farmers' estimates of yield and price variability, and a stochastic efficiency analysis was undertaken. The current systems appeared economically viable given the typical range of yields and prices. While some were riskier than others, farm households were largely able to balance their livelihood portfolios to offset the risks. Major risk management strategies included adoption of stress-tolerant rice varieties, staggering the sale of rice, using early wet season rice as a buffer, switching from rice to non-rice crops in the dry season, and undertaking off- or non-farm employment within and outside the village. The dominant trend was to farm and livelihood diversification, contributing to household resilience. However, at the village level, public policy to safeguard the agricultural environment will be crucial to sustaining household risk management strategies.

Kabir, MJ; Cramb, R; Alauddin, M; Gaydon, DS

Farmers' perceptions and management of risk in rice-based farming systems of south-west coastal Bangladesh

Land Use Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.04.040

The implementation of climate change response programmes for adaptation and resilience is anchored on western scientific knowledge. However, this has led to a tendency to marginalise indigenous knowledge as it is considered unimportant in this process (Belfer et al., 2017; Lesperance, 2017; Whitfield et al., 2015). Yet, knowledge systems rarely develop in isolation as they normally tend to cross-fertilize and benefit from each other. In this regard, we think that indigenous knowledge is just as important as scientific knowledge and the two must be integrated through multiple evidence base approach for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this paper, focussing on African traditional society, we combine oral history with the available literature to examine traditional knowledge and awareness of climate change and related environmental risks. Interesting themes emerge from the knowledge holders themselves and our analysis uncovers a wide range of adaptive coping strategies applied with mixed success. From spotting and reading the position and shape of the 'new moon' to the interpretative correctness of its symbolism in applied traditional climatology, and from rainmaking rituals to conservation of wetlands and forests. Generally, findings seem to suggest that traditional African knowledge of environmental change may be as old as the society itself, with local knowledge transmitted from one generation to the next. Based on the perceived vulnerability of indigenous communities, many scholars tend to argue generically for the integration of indigenous knowledge into climate change policies and implementation (Ross, 2009; Maldonado et al., 2016; Etchart, 2017). In this paper however, we attempt to supplement these arguments by providing specific and context-ualised evidence of indigenous knowledge linked to climate change adaptation. It is demonstrated that indigenous knowledge is neither singular nor universal, but rather, a voluminous, diverse and highly localised source of wisdom. We conclude that integration of such unique and specific indigenous knowledge systems into other evidence bases of knowledge, could be one of the best ways to the more effective and sustainable implementation of climate change adaptation strategies among target indigenous communities.

Makondo, CC; Thomas, DSG

Climate change adaptation: Linking indigenous knowledge with western science for effective adaptation

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.06.014

The Adaptation Fund, established under the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), has now been approving funding for adaptation projects for more than two years. Given its particular institutional status and specific focus on concrete adaptation, it is particularly relevant to study the initial experiences of it for any future upscaling of international adaptation finance, despite the fact that its own resources are getting scarce. Alternative rationales for allocating funds, based on equity and efficiency concerns at both international and subnational levels, are here tested against the criteria and priorities of the Fund and decisions made on project approval. It is concluded that equity concerns appear to be the primary motivation and that allocation is de facto made between states rather than by considering inequity between subnational communities. However, the currency of vulnerability for determining equitable outcomes in allocation decisions has not been formalized, despite its central importance to the Fund. Instead, uniform national caps have been introduced. Such an equality approach can be considered inequitable. Finally, it is noted that although the Adaptation Fund Board has continuously developed its proposal review practices and adopted a learning-by-doing approach, it should provide both a further specification of the evaluation criteria and a compilation of best practices from approved proposals, and moreover enhance the transparency of the review process, all of which would clarify its core priorities for current and future project proponents. Policy relevance Adaptation to climate change is a complex phenomenon. Given the uncertainty of climate impacts, the magnitude of expected adaptation needs globally, the limited knowledge regarding what constitutes effective adaptation, and scarce public resources, it is of vital importance that the policy and scientific communities learn how it can best be supported. The Adaptation Fund is an innovative funding mechanism in several respects, yet it is still unclear what the underlying rationale is that informs the allocation of its scarce resources. This article aims to interpret whether equity or efficiency concerns influence allocation and make some concrete recommendations as to its future form, thereby contributing to the state of knowledge regarding the Fund's role.

Persson, A; Remling, E

Equity and efficiency in adaptation finance: initial experiences of the Adaptation Fund

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2013.879514

In today's uncertain world, vulnerability of water supplies is of increasing concern. A number of factors influence this, ranging from physical conditions through to human management capacities. Across the Orange River Basin in southern Africa, these threats arise from overpopulation and farming pressure, with agrochemical and industrial runoff as well as harsh weather conditions giving rise to severe problems of erosion and land degradation. Under conditions of climate change, these threats are exacerbated, as temperature rises and water resources become more erratic. Since water is both an essential instrument of livelihood support and a crucial factor of production, there is a need to develop more effective mechanisms to identify those areas where its scarcity or poor management can bring about a slowdown in the development process. This urgency is heightened by the international commitment to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), supposedly to be reached by 2015. In addition to the MDGs, governments are also committed to the development of basin management plans for Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). This means that, in order to try to allocate water in an equitable and efficient way, better understanding is needed of all of the complexities of managing water across heterogeneous basins. It is now recognized that effective water management is much more dependent on effective governance than on hydrologic regimes. Ranging from traditional local customary norms and practices dating back through generations to the latest state-of-the-art science-based international agreements, water governance is a key to supporting the lives and livelihoods of local populations. Access to information is an essential feature of any of these approaches, and harmonization of data on water issues is long overdue. This paper provides an outline of an index-based methodology on which an assessment of water vulnerability can be made. In this approach, supply-driven vulnerability (from water systems) and the demand-driven vulnerability (from water users), are evaluated at the municipal scale. By combining these various dimensions together mathematically, a Water Vulnerability Index (WVI) can be generated.

Sullivan, CA

Quantifying water vulnerability: a multi-dimensional approach

Stochastic Environmental Research And Risk Assessment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-010-0426-8

As a city develops and expands, it is likely confronted with a variety of environmental problems. Although the impact of climate change on people has continuously increased in the past, great numbers of natural disasters in urban areas have become varied in terms of form. Among these urban disasters, urban flooding is the most frequent type, and this study focuses on urban flooding. In cities, the population and major facilities are concentrated, and to examine flooding issues in these urban areas, different levels of flooding risk are classified on 100 m x 100 m geographic grids to maximize the spatial efficiency during the flooding events and to minimize the following flooding damage. In this analysis, vulnerability and exposure tests are adopted to analyze urban flooding risks. The first method is based on land-use planning, and the building-to-land ratio. Using fuzzy approaches, the tests focus on risks. However, the latter method using the HEC-Ras model examines factors such as topology and precipitation volume. By mapping the classification of land-use and flooding, the risk of urban flooding is evaluated by grade-scales: green, yellow, orange, and red zones. There are two key findings and theoretical contributions of this study. First, the areas with a high flood risk are mainly restricted to central commercial areas where the main urban functions are concentrated. Additionally, the development density and urbanization are relatively high in these areas, in addition to the old center of urban areas. In the case of Changwon City, Euichang-gu and Seongsan-gu have increased the flood risk because of the high property value of commercial areas and high building density in these regions. Thus, land-use planning of these districts should be designed to reflect upon the different levels of flood risks, in addition to the preparation of anti-disaster facilities to mitigate flood damages in high flood risk areas. Urban flood risk analysis for individual land use districts would facilitate urban planners and managers to prioritize the areas with a high flood risk and to prepare responding preventive measures for more efficient flood management.

Park, K; Lee, MH

The Development and Application of the Urban Flood Risk Assessment Model for Reflecting upon Urban Planning Elements

Water

https://doi.org/10.3390/w11050920

Globally, flood is one of the devastating hydrometeorological disasters, causing human losses and damages to properties and infrastructure. There is a need to determine and geo-visualize flood risk to assist decision-making process for flood risk reduction. The current study is a local level pioneering attempt regarding the spatial appraisal of flood risk assessment and evaluation in Panjkora River Basin, eastern Hindu Kush. An integrated hydro-probabilistic approach is implemented by clubbing the results of Hydrologic Engineering Centre's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and Hydrologic Engineering Centre's Geographic River Analysis System (HEC-Geo-RAS) in geographic information system (GIS) environment. An Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) is used as input data to delineate the target basin and generation of river geometry. Hydraulic and hydrological data were used to estimate and geo-visualize vertical profile and spatial extent of various floods in the active floodplain of Panjkora River. Gumbel's frequency distribution model is applied in analyzing daily peak discharge recorded during the past 32 years, and 200-year flood magnitude (1392m(3)/sec), probable inundation (45.5 km(2)), and vertical profile (19 m) are modeled. Analysis revealed that likelihood of such flood has increased the risk of potential damages to roads (46 km), retaining walls (49 km), bridges (16), and culverts (46). The analysis further revealed that built-up area (10.4 km(2)) and agricultural land (20.2 km(2)) will also come under flood with life loss. The resultant flood risk zones and spatial appraisal will definitely help in bringing down the probable flood damages. Similarly, current study has potential to assist disaster managers, hydraulic engineers, and policy makers to understand the flood risk and implement location-specific effective flood risk reduction strategies.

Mahmood, S; Rahman, AU; Shaw, R

Spatial appraisal of flood risk assessment and evaluation using integrated hydro-probabilistic approach in Panjkora River Basin, Pakistan

Environmental Monitoring And Assessment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7746-z

Studies have determined the factors influencing agricultural drought resilience of smallholder farmers and implications for empowerment. Other than the Abbreviated Women's Empowerment in Agriculture Index (A-WEAI), studies do not provide an analysis of cultural or traditional beliefs and reflective dialogues on challenges of smallholder female livestock farmers. This study uses a mixed approach that includes a survey, A-WEAI, Pearson's chi-square coefficient, and reflective dialogue to analyze these challenges. The ability to adapt to agricultural drought is influenced by factors such as access to information, credit, productive resources, and available time, all of which are different for men and women. Our study found that 61.3% and 16.4% of the female and male farmers were disempowered. Domains that contributed the most to the disempowerment of the women and men were respectively time/workload (52.97% and 31.89%), access to and decisions on credit (17.7% and 21.4%), ownership of assets (11.3% and 8.5%), input into productive decisions (10% and 9.1%) and group membership (8% and 19.13%). No significant correlation for age, marital status, or level of education versus empowerment status of women was found. A significant correlation was observed between farming experience and the empowerment status of women. Reflective dialogue during interviews revealed that women struggled with access to finance, grazing, water, stock theft, lack of training and knowledge, and intimidation by male neighbors. Such findings help inform agricultural development strategies to develop or modify existing policies to enhance the resilience of farmers to agricultural drought and empowerment. Gender-specific agricultural projects should be encouraged to empower female farmers to improve their resilience to agricultural drought. The government should assist female livestock farmers in accessing credit and developing clear policies on land tenure issues. Mentorship programs should be encouraged to educate and support female smallholder farmers to enhance their agricultural drought resilience and empowerment.

Maltitz, LV; Bahsta, YT

Empowerment of smallholder female livestock farmers and its potential impacts to their resilience to agricultural drought

Aims Agriculture And Food

https://doi.org/10.3934/agrfood.2021036

Sea level rise (SLR) is among the most pressing challenges for urban coastal areas. While geocentric (eustatic) SLR receives widespread attention in politics and media, relative SLR at the coast, mainly caused by land subsidence, is still comparatively under-researched despite much higher rates. This paper introduces a combined natural and social science study to bring subsidence more to the forefront of coastal hazard research. We use data from radar altimetry, GNSS controlled tide gauge stations, and InSAR mapping to characterize regional and relative SLR at Jakarta and Semarang Bay, and focus-group discussions and a standardized household survey to analyze risk perceptions and adaptation. Our analysis of InSAR, radar altimetry, and corrected tide gauges clearly identifies subsidence as the major coastal threat in our study areas. The InSAR analysis for Semarang shows stable trends of subsidence up to -100 mm/a. For Jakarta, our analysis reveals more complex spatial and temporal patterns with rates around 60 mm/a; revealing significant changes to previous studies. Our analysis of radar altimetry data since 1993 shows a moderate regional SLR of 2.1 mm/a off Semarang and 3.2 mm/a off Jakarta. The InSAR data are integrated into our statistical analysis of household responses towards subsidence. We found, that in contrast to fast-onset events, constantly proceeding subsidence becomes normalized in peoples' perceptions and responses are integrated into day-to-day habits. Thus, risk perception is a far lesser determinant of responses towards subsidence than it is for fast-onset events. Hence, our results relativize former assumptions that risk perception and not actual exposure lead to action. Moreover, we found that local people are not willing to vacate highly exposed areas. Their views need to be included in municipal disaster risk reduction, the urgency of which clearly lies on mitigating subsidence effects rather than on building protection against regionally rising sea levels.

Bott, LM; Schöne, T; Illigner, J; Haghighi, MH; Gisevius, K; Braun, B

Land subsidence in Jakarta and Semarang Bay - The relationship between physical processes, risk perception, and household adaptation

Ocean & Coastal Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105775

Tropical highland regions are experiencing rapid climate change. In these regions the adaptation challenge is complicated by the fact that elevation contrasts and dissected topography produce diverse climatic conditions that are often accompanied by significant ecological and agricultural diversity within a relatively small region. Such is the case for the Choke Mountain watersheds, in the Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia. These watersheds extend from tropical alpine environments at over 4000 m elevation to the hot and dry Blue Nile gorge that includes areas below 1000 m elevation, and contain a diversity of slope forms and soil types. This physical diversity and accompanying socio-economic contrasts demand diverse strategies for enhanced climate resilience and adaptation to climate change. To support development of locally appropriate climate resilience strategies across the Blue Nile Highlands, we present here an agroecosystem analysis of Choke Mountain, under the premise that the agroecosystem-the intersection of climatic and physiographic conditions with agricultural practices-is the most appropriate unit for defining adaptation strategies in these primarily subsistence agriculture communities. To this end, we present two approaches to agroecosystem analysis that can be applied to climate resilience studies in the Choke Mountain watersheds and, as appropriate, to other agroecologically diverse regions attempting to design climate adaptation strategies. First, a full agroecoystem analysis was implemented in collaboration with local communities. It identified six distinct agroecosystems that differ systematically in constraints and adaptation potential. This analysis was then paired with an objective landscape classification trained to identify agroecosystems based on climate and physiographic setting alone. It was found that the distribution of Choke Mountain watershed agroecosystems can, to first order, be explained as a function of prevailing climate. This suggests that the conditions that define current agroecosystems are likely to migrate under a changing climate, requiring adaptive management strategies. These agroecosystems show a remarkable degree of differentiation in terms of production orientation and socio-economic characteristics of the farming communities suggesting different options and interventions towards building resilience to climate change.

Simane, B; Zaitchik, BF; Ozdogan, M

Agroecosystem Analysis of the Choke Mountain Watersheds, Ethiopia

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su5020592

The impact of climate change on farmers' livelihoods has been observed in various forms at the local and regional scales. It is well known that the Himalayas region is affected by climate change, as reflected in the basic knowledge of farmers in the region. A questionnaire-based survey involving a total of 747 households was conducted to gather information on climate change and its impact, where the survey addressed four physiographic regions of the trans-boundary Koshi River Basin (KRB). Moreover, climatic data were used to calculate climatic trends between 1980 and 2018. The Mann-Kendall trend test was performed and the Sen's slope calculated to analyze the inter-annual climatic trends over time. The survey noted that, for the basin, there was an increase in temperature, climate-induced diseases of crops, an increase in the frequency of pests as well as drought and floods and a decrease in rainfall, all which are strong indicators of climate change. It was perceived that these indicators had adverse impacts on crop production (89.4%), human health (82.5%), livestock (68.7%) and vegetation (52.1%). The observed climatic trends for all the physiographic regions included an increasing temperature trend and a decreasing rainfall trend. The rate of change varied according to each region, hence strongly supporting the farmers' local knowledge of climate change. The highest increasing trend of temperature noted in the hill region at 0.0975 degrees C/a (p = 0.0002) and sharpest decreasing trend of rainfall in the mountain region by -10.424 mm/a (p = 0.016) between 1980 and 2018. Formulation of suitable adaptation strategies according to physiographic region can minimize the impact of climate change. New adaptation strategies proposed include the introduction of infrastructure for irrigation systems, the development of crop seeds that are more tolerant to drought, pests and disease tolerance, and the construction of local hospitals for the benefit of farming communities.

Paudel, B; Wang, ZF; Zhang, YL; Rai, MK; Paul, PK

Climate Change and Its Impacts on Farmer's Livelihood in Different Physiographic Regions of the Trans-Boundary Koshi River Basin, Central Himalayas

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18137142

Russian science has long warned of adverse climate impacts (also noting some positive effects), but state policies have been lacking. By analysing key policy documents over the last 15 years, this study identifies and explains the development of an adaptation policy. Most recently, a bureaucratic process set in motion by Russia's ratification of the Paris Agreement produced a set of policy documents addressing adaptation to negative climate impacts. These documents employed a bureaucratic-administrative approach, and the effectiveness of expected measures can be questioned. From 2020, a deeper reassessment of climate challenges has evolved, triggered by radical climate changes observed in the Russian Arctic, but also by developments in international climate policies and the energy transition. Economic adaptation to these trends has come to the forefront, raising questions of the need for structural change in the Russian economy. Opposition to reform remains strong, but the scope for discussion of possible pathways has widened considerably. Further development of low-carbon policies in Russia are contingent on international cooperation and integration of Russia in the world economy. The isolation of Russia, following the invasion of Ukraine, will make it difficult to influence Russian climate policies. Key policy insights Unlike the West, Russian climate policy has focused on adaptation, rather than mitigation. But policies have been weak, and adaptation not mainstreamed. Detailed recommendations for adaptation to climate change impacts adopted in 2021 signalled higher political attention, but framed adaptation largely as a technical task. Since 2020, a broader climate change and adaptation discourse entered Russian politics where adaptation to international climate policies and the energy transition is at the centre. Debate on Russia's role in the changing energy market had started, but the invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing international isolation of Russia is likely to reduce Russia's capacity and incentives to carry out low-carbon policies. Western countries will have to consider how they can provide climate policy incentives to Russia in the new international situation, as Russia will remain essential for the success of the climate regime. Science diplomacy may become important.

Moe, A; Lamazhapov, E; Anisimov, O

Russia's expanding adaptation agenda and its limitations

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2107981

Property damages caused by hydrometeorological disasters in Texas during the period 1960-2016 totaled $54.2 billion with hurricanes, tropical storms, and hail accounting for 56%, followed by flooding and severe thunderstorms responsible for 24% of the total damages. The current study provides normalized trends to support the assertion that the increase in property damage is a combined contribution of stronger disasters as predicted by climate change models and increases in urban development in risk prone regions such as the Texas Gulf Coast. A comparison of the temporal distribution of damages normalized by population and GDP resulted in a less statistically significant increasing trend per capita. Seasonal distribution highlights spring as the costliest season (March, April and May) while the hurricane season (June through November) is well aligned with the months of highest property damage. Normalization of property damage by GDP during 2001-2016 showed Dallas as the only metropolitan statistical area (MSA) with a significant increasing trend of the 25 MSAs in Texas. Spatial analysis of property damage per capita highlighted the regions that are at greater risk during and after a major disaster given their limited economic resources compared to more urbanized regions. Variation in the causes of damage (wind or water) and types of damage that a Hurricane can produce was investigated using Hazus model simulation. A comparison of published damage estimates at time of occurrence with simulation outputs for Hurricanes Carla, 1961; Alicia, 1983; and Ike, 2008 based on 2010 building exposure highlighted the impact of economic growth, susceptibility of wood building types, and the predominant cause of damage. Carla and Ike simulation models captured less than 50% of their respective estimates reported by other sources suggesting a broad geographical zone of damage with flood damage making a significant contribution. Conversely, the model damage estimates for Alicia are 50% higher than total damage estimates that were reported at the time of occurrence suggesting a substantial increase in building exposure susceptible to wind damage in the modeled region from 1983 - 2010.

Paul, SH; Sharif, HO

Analysis of Damage Caused by Hydrometeorological Disasters in Texas, 1960-2016

Geosciences

https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8100384

This paper describes a procedure to use a model interactively to investigate future land use by studying a wide range of scenarios defining climate, technological and socio-economic changes. A full model run of several hours has been replaced by a metamodel version which takes a few seconds, and provides the user with an immediate visual output and with the ability to examine easily which factors have the greatest effect. The Regional Impact Simulator combines a model of agricultural land use choices linked with models of urban growth, flooding risk, water quality and consequences for wildlife to estimate plausible futures of agricultural land on a timescale of 20-50 years. The model examines the East Anglian and North West regions of the United Kingdom at a grid resolution of 5 x 5 km, and for each scenario estimates the most likely cropping and its profitability at each location, and classifies land use as arable, intensive or extensive grassland or abandoned. From a modelling viewpoint the metamodel approach enables iteration. It is thus possible to determine how product prices change so that production meets demand. The results of the study show that in East Anglia cropping remains quite stable over a wide range of scenarios, though grassland is eliminated in scenarios with the 2050s High climate scenario - almost certainly due to the low yield in the drier conditions. In the North West there is a very much greater range of outcomes, though all scenarios suggest a reduction in grassland with the greatest in the 2050s High climate scenario combined with the Regional Stewardship (environmental) socio-economic scenario. The effects of the predicted changes in land use on plant species showed suitability for species to vary greatly, particularly between the socio-economic scenarios, due to detrimental effects from increases in nitrogen fertilisation. A complete simulation with the Regional Impact Simulator takes around 15 seconds (computer-dependent), which users who responded felt was adequate or better than adequate. The main areas for future improvement, such as the speed of the system, user interaction and the accuracy and detail of the modelling, are considered.

Audsley, E; Pearn, KR; Harrison, PA; Berry, PM

The impact of future socio-economic and climate changes on agricultural land use and the wider environment in East Anglia and North West England using a metamodel system

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9450-9

Profound sea ice loss is rapidly transforming coupled social-ecological Arctic marine systems. However, explicit impacts to harvesting of traditional resources for coastal Indigenous communities remain largely unquantified, particularly where the primary research questions are posed by the Indigenous community as a result of emerging approaches such as knowledge co-production. Here, we directly link reduced sea ice coverage to decreasing harvesting opportunities for ugruk (bearded seal, Erignathus barbatus) as a component of a partnership among a multidisciplinary team of scientists, Indigenous Elder Advisory Council, and sovereign Indigenous tribe in northwest Alaska, USA. We collaboratively established research questions, coordinated data collection, and interpreted results to understand the causes and consequences of changing ugruk harvests for the community of Qikiqtagruk (Kotzebue). The duration of spring ugruk hunts by the Qikiqtaagrunmiut declined significantly during 2003-2019 due to a shift (similar to 3 weeks earlier) in the timing of regional sea ice breakup. Harvests now cease similar to 26 d earlier than in the past decade. Using historical sea ice records, we further demonstrate that ice coverage in May now resembles conditions that were common in July during the mid-20th century. Overall, we show that climate change is constraining hunting opportunities for this traditional marine resource, although Qikiqtagrunmiut hunters have so far been able to offset a shortened season with changes in effort. Notwithstanding recent hunting success in unprecedentedly sparse ice conditions, accessibility to traditional resources remains a prominent concern for many Arctic communities. Management and policy decisions related to Arctic marine mammal resources, such as ugruk, are therefore also interwoven with food security, well-being, and culture of Indigenous communities. Hence, research that originates with Indigenous sovereignty over the entire research process, such as demonstrated here, has the potential to also lead to more inclusive, sustainable, and equitable outcomes in the face of rapid and accelerating Arctic change.

Hauser, DDW; Whiting, AV; Mahoney, AR; Goodwin, J; Harris, C; Schaeffer, RJ; Schaeffer, R; Laxague, NJM; Subramaniam, A; Witte, CR; Betcher, S; Lindsay, JM; Zappa, CJ

Co-production of knowledge reveals loss of Indigenous hunting opportunities in the face of accelerating Arctic climate change

Environmental Research Letters

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1a36

Has the Swedish Climate Policy Framework - including the new Swedish Climate Act - adopted in June 2017, been conducive to advancing climate mitigation, and if so, to what extent and in which aspects? Although Sweden is often described as a frontrunner in climate work, several evaluations prior to the adoption of the Climate Policy Framework and the Climate Act concluded that Swedish climate policy has suffered from both implementation and monitoring deficits, as well as from the fact that climate goals and strategies were non-legally binding. Taken together, such deficits make the stable, long-term prioritizing of climate mitigation over other sector policies increasingly difficult, thus limiting the possibilities to reach future targets. This article focuses on three dimensions of climate policy integration - assessing policy processes, outputs and outcomes - with the aim to analyse political developments and policy outcomes in Sweden after the implementation of the Climate Policy Framework and the Climate Act. The results of a comprehensive set of interviews with policy experts and high-level decision-makers show that the framework is believed to have had important effects, mainly in terms of changing both policy language, cross-sector coordination, and increasing the prioritization of the climate issue. Thus the study (1) contributes to a better theoretical and empirical understanding of Climate Change Acts as instruments for climate policy integration; (2) paves the way for future comparative studies; and (3) presents important practical lessons for policy makers on the effects of legal mechanisms to achieve climate mitigation. Key policy insights Climate Acts provide a legal framework for governmental climate activities. A comprehensive framework including three dimensions of climate policy integration - assessing process, output and outcome, should be used to evaluate Climate Act effects. The Swedish Climate Policy Framework and Climate Act has induced a weak type of climate policy integration, showing effects on climate policy debate, coordination, policy measure implementation and policy support. The framework sends strong signals of political will to address climate change, but the non-inclusion of targets and instruments in the Swedish Climate Act is causing debate and insecurity regarding what policy instruments will be implemented

Matti, S; Petersson, C; Söderberg, C

The Swedish climate policy framework as a means for climate policy integration: an assessment

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1930510

Climate variability has a negative impact on crop productivity and has had an effect on many smallholder farmers in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs). Small-holder farmers in Eastern Kenya are faced with the constraint associated with climate variability and have consequently made effort at local level to utilize adaptation techniques in their quest to adapt to climate variability. However, documentation of the factors that influence the level of adaptation to climate variability in the study area is quite limited. Hence, this study aimed at assessing how the household's socio-economic factors influence the level of adaptation to climate variability. The study sites were Tharaka and Kitui-Central sub-Counties in Tharaka-Nithi and Kitui Counties of Eastern Kenya respectively. The data collected included the household demographic and socio-economic characteristics and farmers' adaptation techniques to cope with climate variability. Triangulation approach research design was used to simultaneously collect both quantitative and qualitative data. Primary data was gathered through a household survey. Both random and purposive sampling strategies were employed. Data analysis was done using descriptive and inferential statistics. Multinomial and Binary logistic regression models were used to predict the influence of socioeconomic characteristics on the level of adaptation to climate variability. This was done using variables derived through a data reduction process that employed Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The study considered five strategies as measures of the level of adaptation to climate variability; crop adjustment; crop management; soil fertility management; water harvesting and crop types; boreholes and crop variety. Several factors were found significant in predicting the level of adaptation to climate variability as being either low or medium relative to high. These were average size of land under maize; farming experience; household size; household members involved in farming; education level; age; main occupation and gender of the household head. Household socio economic factors found significant in explaining the level of adaptation should be considered in any efforts that aim to promote adaptation to climate variability in the agricultural sector amongst smallholder farmers. (C) Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mugi-Ngenga, EW; Mucheru-Muna, MW; Mugwe, JN; Ngetich, FK; Mairura, FS; Mugendi, DN

Household's socio-economic factors influencing the level of adaptation to climate variability in the dry zones of Eastern Kenya

Journal Of Rural Studies

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2015.11.004

Exposure elements in open-access disaster databases that are relevant to critical infrastructure and basic services in the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) were transformed into spatial data, to investigate the impact of flash flood hazards in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. In this era of big data and hyper-connectivity, the availability of open-access data on exposure elements across scales and systems is largely unknown. Information on exposure elements and hazard susceptibility provide important insights to enhance community resilience, to move away from merely managing disasters to managing the risk of disasters, in line with the SFDRR. The case study of Kuala Lumpur enabled an assessment of information availability in existing disaster databases and within the national system, to facilitate informed decision-making. Findings reveal that there are a total of 26 databases on the internet that provide information on disasters and related elements; of which 18 are global, three are regional and four provide information at the national scale. However, only ten databases are open access where the user is able to easily retrieve information while others provide a view only option. The coverage of exposure elements in disaster databases is very poor where only five databases carried such information; and it is not useful for local scale application. Thus, information was sought from multiple open data sources within the national system and transformed into spatial data, to develop an exposure element data inventory for the city. There are 509 exposure elements within Kuala Lumpur, covering 33 private and government hospitals and community clinics; 189 public and private schools and institutions higher education; 261 facilities that provide basic services; and 26 features that represent of social and economic aspects. The exposure elements, which is coherent with the SFDRR, benefits decision-making when overlain with existing flood hazard zones and susceptible areas. Moving forward, emerging hazards due to climate change will be evaluated to strengthen informed decision-making and build community resilience in the city. The empowerment of local level research has great potential to advance open sharing of information on disaster and climate risks in the region.

Muhamad, N; Arshad, SHM; Pereira, JJ

Exposure Elements in Disaster Databases and Availability for Local Scale Application: Case Study of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Frontiers In Earth Science

https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.616246

In the recent decades, extreme weather events have increased in frequency, intensity and magnitude threatening and increasing the vulnerability of rural livelihoods particularly in the arid and semi-arid lands. This study explored climate change events, the extent of their impacts on farmers' livelihoods, farmers' adaptation strategies and the extent of the strategies on improving farmers' ability to manage the climate change impacts in the Yatta region, Kenya. The study adopted a multi-method approach that integrated qualitative and quantitative data sources. Quantitative data were obtained from 354 household interviews while qualitative data were obtained from 8 focus group discussions. The interview data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics while the discussion data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. The most experienced climate events were drought (90.7%), crop diseases (79.1%) and floods (33.30%). Livelihoods aspects greatly impacted by the climate change events were food shortage (87.29%), increased food prices (76.27%) and decreased availability of water (72.43%). Although farmers had adopted several on-farm adaptation strategies, the adoption levels remained low. Water management strategies (water conservation and water harvesting) recorded higher adoption rates of 62.71% and 53.95% respectively. The adoption of on-farm adaptation strategies had proved some potential to improve farmers' ability to deal with the experienced climate change impacts. The regression model showed that farmers were likely to adopt crop and water management practices which they perceived had a higher probability of improving their ability to cope with climate change impacts. The occurrence of climate change events in the study area has affected agriculture productivity, food security and socioeconomic status of the households. Effective integration of potential adaptation strategies into smallholder farming systems calls for measures to address adoption and implementation barriers while ensuring alignment of policies, programs and institutional support systems. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of African Institute of Mathematical Sciences / Next Einstein Initiative.

Kalele, DN; Ogara, WO; Oludhe, C; Onono, JO

Climate change impacts and relevance of smallholder farmers' response in arid and semi-arid lands in Kenya

Scientific African

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00814

Ecological vulnerability evaluations can provide a scientific foundation for ecological environment management. Studies of ecological vulnerability have mainly focused on typical ecologically vulnerable regions with poor natural conditions or severe human interference, and such studies have rarely considered eco-provinces. Taking Jiangsu, an eco-province under construction in China, as the study area, we evaluated the spatiotemporal distributions of ecological vulnerability in 2005, 2010 and 2015 at the kilometer grid scale and analyzed the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on ecological vulnerability. The pressure state response model (PSR), geographic information systems (GIS), spatial principal component analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and correlation analysis methods were used. The results of the study are as follows: (i) the effects of anthropogenic factors on ecological vulnerability are greater than those of natural factors, and landscape evenness and the land resource utilization degree are the main factors that influence ecological vulnerability. (ii) Jiangsu Province is generally lightly to moderately vulnerable. Slight vulnerability is mainly observed in areas with water bodies. Light vulnerability is concentrated in paddy fields between the Main Irrigation Channel of North Jiangsu and the Yangtze River. Medium, heavy and extreme vulnerability areas are mainly composed of arable and built-up land. Medium vulnerability is mainly distributed to the north of the Main Irrigation Channel of North Jiangsu; heavy vulnerability is scattered to the south of the Yangtze River and in north-western hilly areas; and extreme vulnerability is concentrated in hilly areas; (iii) Ecological vulnerability displays a clustering characteristic. High-high (HH) regions are mainly distributed in heavy and extreme vulnerability regions, and low-low (LL) regions are located in slight vulnerability areas. (iv) Ecological vulnerability has gradually deteriorated. From 2005 to 2010, the vulnerability in hilly areas considerably increased, and from 2010 to 2015, the vulnerability in urban and north-eastern coastal built-up land areas significantly increased. Emphasis should be placed on the prevention and control of ecological vulnerability in high-altitude, urban and coastal areas.

Ding, Q; Shi, X; Zhuang, DF; Wang, Y

Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Ecological Vulnerability under the Influence of Natural and Anthropogenic Factors in an Eco-Province under Construction in China

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093087

Rising sea levels, due to thermal expansion of the ocean, and higher frequency and intensity of coastal and inland storms threaten coastal communities worldwide. The implementation of pro-active, planned adaptation to reduce community vulnerability is strongly dependent upon people's perception of the threat posed to their communities at the local scale. Unfortunately, the scarcity of research into effective risk communication limits our understanding of how climate change evidence can most effectively raise risk awareness and inspire community adaptation. With a focus on a case study situated in the Tantramar area of South-East New Brunswick, Canada an area subject to very large tidal forces from the Bay of Fundy this study set out to assess public awareness about the link between climate change and elevated risk of regional dyke failure, measure how different multi-media visualizations influence public risk perception, and provide general recommendations for the development of flood risk communication strategies in coastal zones. The results from 14 focus groups (n = 157 participants) revealed that 81% of respondents felt that the problem of climate change was considerable or severe. However, when asked for their assessment of personal vulnerability to dyke failure and subsequent coastal flooding, only 35.6% considered themselves to be at considerable or severe personal risk. Gender, education, and age were found to significantly influence initial risk perception to varying degrees, and were also associated with changes in risk perception following the communication session. While geovisually-enhanced communication strategies, involving 3D flood animations and web-based GIS maps, were no more effective at raising risk awareness than a non-enhanced communication package, qualitative responses suggested that the geovisualizations had greater emotional impact (shock), and contributed disproportionately to an expressed desire to become politically and socially active around the issue. In conclusion, in addition to presenting evidence in a clear and compelling way, effective coastal flood risk communication requires a supportive framework capable of building trust and encouraging public dialogue. Recommendations towards creating this framework are provided. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lieske, DJ; Wade, T; Roness, LA

Climate change awareness and strategies for communicating the risk of coastal flooding: A Canadian Maritime case example

Estuarine Coastal And Shelf Science

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2013.04.017

The COVID-19 crisis has revealed weaknesses and placed great stress on the agri-food system in the U.S. Many believe that it could be a catalyst event that leads to structural changes to improve the food system's resilience. We use a sample of 220 articles published in prominent national newspapers and agricultural trade journals from March to May 2020 to explore the extent to which farmer responses to COVID-19 covered in the media represent examples of resistant, adaptive, or transformative strategies. The pandemic disrupted the U.S. food system and impacted farmers by reducing access to markets, lowering commodity prices, restricting access to farmworker labor, and shifting consumer demand. Media coverage of farmer responses to these stressors were coded into three alternative pathways: (i) reactive or buffering responses, (ii) adaptive responses; and (iii) transformative responses. Most news media coverage focused on the pandemic's disruptive impacts on the U.S. food system, related negative impacts on farmers, and short-term responses by institutional actors, including policy-makers and food supply chain industry actors. Farmer responses to pandemic stressors were mentioned less frequently than farmer impacts and responses by institutional actors. The most common examples of farmer responses highlighted in the media reflected farmer reactive and buffering behaviors, which were mentioned significantly more frequently than adaptive or transformative responses. National newspapers were more likely to cover farmer responses and present examples of adaptive and transformative strategies compared to agricultural trade journals. Our findings suggest that news media coverage in the early months of the pandemic largely characterized the event as a rapid onset `natural' disaster that created severe negative impacts. Media devoted more attention to short-term policy responses designed to mitigate these impacts than to farmer responses (in general) or to discussion of the deeper structural causes of and potential solutions to the vulnerabilities revealed by the pandemic. In this way, both national newspaper and agricultural trade journal coverage seems to promote frames that reduce the likelihood of the pandemic becoming the seed of a more resilient system.

Jackson-Smith, D; Veisi, H

Media coverage of a pandemic's impacts on farmers and implications for agricultural resilience and adaptation

Journal Of Agriculture Food Systems And Community Development

https://doi.org/10.5304/jafscd.2021.102.039

Climate change is altering the productivity of natural resources with far-reaching implications for agriculture. In some instances, the scale and nature of the likely impacts means that transformations of function or structure of agriculture and/or agricultural enterprises will be required if communities dependent on agriculture are to be sustained. However, industry-wide transformations are unlikely to be supported unless individual primary producers have sufficient capacity to undergo transformational change. We look at: (i) the extent to which primary producers in Australia would be willing to transform, (ii) the extent that transformational capacity is likely to exist within producers, and (iii) the common attributes of producers with high levels of transformational capacity. We conducted a telephone survey of 195 primary producers (response rate 59%) across livestock, cropping and mixed enterprises across five national transects on the Australian continent with a high to low rainfall gradient. About half of the sample (55%) suggested that their land would be suitable for diversification and 45% would consider land-use change. These producers were more likely to come from a dry region rather than a wet region, came from an already mixed production enterprise, were more likely to irrigate and have completed university or a trade. These producers were also more likely to have a higher transformational capacity, particularly in their level of interest in adapting to the future. Across our sample, 23% had high levels of transformational capacity, whilst nearly half (45%) had either low or extremely low capacity to implement such change. Producers with a higher capacity were more likely to have a mixed enterprise, an internal locus of control, and higher levels of trust in networks, government, researchers, and agronomists and in self. Our results provide some important insights into what makes some producers more successful or able to transform than others. Investment in the capacity of producers to transform is likely to be an effective strategy to support Australian agriculture in the face of climate change. Crown Copyright (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Marshall, NA; Crimp, S; Curnock, M; Greenhill, M; Kuehne, G; Leviston, Z; Ouzman, J

Some primary producers are more likely to transform their agricultural practices in response to climate change than others

Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2016.02.004

Watercourses act like a magnet for human communities and were always a deciding factor when choosing settlements. The reverse of these services is a potential hazard in the form of flash flooding, for which human society has various management strategies. These strategies prove to be increasingly necessary in the context of increased anthropic pressure on the floodable areas. One of these strategies, Strategic Flood Management (SFM), a continuous cycle of planning, acting, monitoring, reviewing and adapting, seems to have better chances to succeed than other previous strategies, in the context of the Digital-Era Governance (DEG). These derive, among others, from the technological and methodological advantages of DEG. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) stand out among the most revolutionary tools for data acquisition and processing of data in the last decade, both in qualitative and quantitative terms. In this context, this study presents a hybrid risk assessment methodology for buildings in case of floods. The methodology is based on detailed information on the terrestrial surface-digital surface model (DSM) and measurements of the last historical flash flood level (occurred on 20 June 2012)-that enabled post-flood peak discharge estimation. Based on this methodology, two other parameters were calculated together with water height (depth): shear stress and velocity. These calculations enabled the modelling of the hazard and risk map, taking into account the objective value of buildings. The two components were integrated in a portal available for the authorities and inhabitants. Both the methodology and the portal are perfectible, but the value of this material consists of the detailing and replicability potential of the data that can be made available to administration and local community. Conceptually, the following are relevant (a) the framing of the SFM concept in the DEG framework and (b) the possibility to highlight the involvement and contribution of the citizens in mapping the risks and their adaptation to climate changes. The subsequent version of the portal is thus improved by further contributions and the participatory approach of the citizens.

Bilasco, S; Hognogi, GG; Rosca, S; Pop, AM; Iuliu, V; Fodorean, I; Marian-Potra, AC; Sestras, P

Flash Flood Risk Assessment and Mitigation in Digital-Era Governance Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle and GIS Spatial Analyses Case Study: Small River Basins

Remote Sensing

https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14102481

Flood hazard modeling is an important task for decision making in the flood management aiming at preventing human and material losses. There is therefore a pressing need for reliable predictive tools in order to identify flood-prone areas. Recently, with the increase in cheap computational power, most studies in this context use one- or two-dimensional (1-D, 2-D) deterministic hydraulic models, which provide estimates of the flood extent and depth with satisfactory accuracy at reduced time. These models, however, capture only a relatively small fraction of the active processes by simulating flood without consideration of morphological change, while 2-D/3-D hydro-morphodynamic solutions are more realistic by considering the influences of channel and floodplain morphologies to simulate inundation flow. This research seeks to assess the suitability of a landscape evolution model (LEM) to simulate adequately the hydraulics of flood events in a real case scenario. We opted to use the 2-D model cellular automaton evolutionary slope and river (CAESAR) which is originally a LEM that has recently undergone a real evolution by integrating the hydrodynamic flow routing algorithm LISFLOOD-FP (LF). CAESAR-LISFLOOD (CAESAR-LF) is a reduced-complexity and depth-integrated 2-D storage cell model that simulates flow and sediment transport in response to hydrological inputs. The area is an urban reach of the river Bouregreg (Morocco) having a large and swampy floodplain with complex topography. Performance of the reduced-complexity model CAESAR-LF in flood mapping is investigated and benchmarked against the one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Combined climate and hydrologic modeling were used to generate input flow data for hydraulic models. The results from both approaches agree well and show a relative good consistency in estimating flood extent and magnitude. Some differences occur, but these can easily be explained as a result of unavoidable differences in concepts and implementation.

Zellou, B; Rahali, H

Assessment of reduced-complexity landscape evolution model suitability to adequately simulate flood events in complex flow conditions

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2671-8

This article engages through an interdisciplinary approach to re-envision Tangintebu Theological College's (TTC) model of theological education in the context of climate change in Kiribati. It utilises the anthropological theory of symbolic interactionism within missiological, cultural and, theological studies of climate change. It argues for the coconut tree as an appropriate cultural conceptual metaphorical idiom for translating and understanding Christian faith and shaping a theological pedagogy within the Kiribati context of climate change. The coconut image is an indigenous, holistic way of knowing and learning informed by Kiribati cosmology embedded within people's experiences and understanding of the coconut tree. Its life-centeredness has the potential to contextualise the theological curriculum and teaching methodology to assist in equipping theological students with climate change-sensitive approaches. The qualitative method was utilised to allow participants to reflect on their experiences of climate change in relation to the mission of the church. The data that informs this article was generated through unstructured interviews and focus group discussions with members of the Kiribati Uniting Church (KUC). The data was analysed using symbolic interactionism. The results suggest that the Kiribati people symbolically interact with God through their understanding of the coconut tree, which is conceived as the embodiment of God's presence. It became clear that while this world view informs the faith of members of the KUC, the TTC curriculum has sidelined it, resulting in miseducation of pastors because this omission means they are not equipped to engage with the challenge of climate change. The participants argued that there is an urgent need to understand theological education and ministerial formation within the indigenous framework of Kiribati coconut imagination that is embedded in the promotion of justice and equitable society not only for human beings but for all of God's creation through symbolic interaction with the presence of God in the coconut.

Timon, T; Kaunda, CJ; Hewitt, RR

Re-envisioning Tangintebu Theological College in the context of climate change: An emerging model of coconut theological education and ministerial formation

Hts Teologiese Studies-Theological Studies

https://doi.org/10.4102/hts.v75i1.5169

Smallholder farmers operate within a risky and uncertain context. In addition to climate variability and climate change, social, environmental, institutional, and market-related dynamics affect their agricultural decisions and ability to cope and adapt. In this paper, we develop and apply a set of framing questions to investigate the factors shaping farmer decision-making and how these are situated in pathways of response. Drawing on a literature review of decision-making for risk management, five questions are posed to frame enquiry: what livelihood decisions are undertaken by households, who makes what decisions, when do households make decisions and why do they make them, and how do decision making processes evolve and response pathways arise. This approach conceptualises and explores household decision-making in a holistic manner, moving beyond previous studies that examine smallholder decisions through disciplinary boundaries (e.g. psychology, economics, risk management) or particular theoretical approaches (e.g. bounded rationality, theory of planned behaviour). The framing questions together with key insights from literature are used to design and interpret empirical evidence from Pratapgarh, a tribal-dominated rainfed district in southeast Rajasthan, India. The findings suggest that while resource ownership and access are the main drivers of decision-making, socio-cognitive factors such as perceived adaptive capacity and perceived efficacy to carry out adaptive actions are equally important factors mediating farmer responses. We also find that the holistic approach helps explain how personal motivations and individual perceptions of adaptive capacity interact with socioeconomic, climatic, and agro-ecological dynamics at local and regional scales to mediate risk perception and inform response behaviour. A typology of response pathways demonstrates how different households' trajectories are determined. Making a case for mixed methods to investigate farmer decision-making holistically, this paper provides an approach that reflects the complex and iterative nature of real farmer decision making and can be used by researchers, policymakers, and practitioners to better understand and describe decision making and to develop informed policies and interventions. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Singh, C; Dorward, P; Osbahr, H

Developing a holistic approach to the analysis of farmer decision-making: Implications for adaptation policy and practice in developing countries

Land Use Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.06.041

Vietnam is prone to tropical storms. Climate change effects contribute to sea level rise, floods, progression of the low water line and coastal erosion. This paper inventories the perception of local people, assesses and values main aspects of the livelihood damage caused by the tropical storms of the period 2008-2013 in three coastal communes of the Ky Anh District of the Ha Tinh Province in Central Vietnam. The communes were selected because the location of their coastal line is perpendicular to the storm itself, which made them prone to damage. The effects of increasingly extreme weather conditions on three communities in an area most affected by storms and floods on the local residents and their responses to these changing environmental conditions are analyzed and assessed. The results of questionnaires completed by randomly selected local inhabitants of these communes show that storms and related hazards such as flood, sea level rise and heavy rain are perceived as the most impacting climate change intensified phenomena on agriculture and aquaculture, livestock, household property and income. Opinions and measured data provided by the commune and district authorities allow estimating the total direct cost of the tropical storm at 1.56 million $US (The used conversion rate VND/$US is 21,730 when the research was conducted in 2014) during the period 2008-2013. The long-term costs of adaptation and social impact measures will be significantly higher. Details of the monetary figures allow identifying the physical and natural capital of the area as being most affected by the storm. Trend and cost analysis show that the total financial support for hazard prevention and management during 2014-2019 is estimated at 1.19 up to 1.32 million $US. Local stakeholders indicate that climate change adaptation should not be limited to technical measures such as strengthening dikes, but also should target planting protection forests and mangroves and land use planning. Financial support for the relocation policy, stakeholder involvement and integrating climate change adaptation in both the socioeconomic development master plan and local land use planning are also of importance.

Nguyen, TA; Vu, DA; Vu, PV; Nguyen, TN; Pham, TM; Nguyen, HTT; Le, HT; Nguyen, TV; Hoang, LK; Vu, TD; Nguyen, TS; Luong, TT; Trinh, NP; Hens, L

Human ecological effects of tropical storms in the coastal area of Ky Anh (Ha Tinh, Vietnam)

Environment Development And Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-016-9761-3

The matter of climate migration, which arises as a result of long-term environmental degradation triggered by climate change and natural and man-made disasters, requires a global struggle due to its negative effects. Carrying out a large-scale struggle against the matter of climate migration, which is mainly addressed within the framework of its economic, social, political and cultural effects, necessitates the examination of the problem, especially with its legal dimension, as well as other aspects. Determining the legal dimension of the climate migration matter, primarily requires addressing the concrete characteristics of the issue; correspondingly, we aim to introduce the factors causing climate migration and the negative consequences of climate migration within the scope of our study. In line with this stated goal, disasters caused by climate change that occur in various regions of the world and trigger migration movements will be exemplified and how climate migration is addressed in legal regulations for preventing climate change will be determined. Subsequent to introducing the climate migration matter within the framework of its concrete characteristics, the sources of international protection law in force will be examined in order to determine the legal dimension of the struggle to be conducted. The national and international legal regulations considered within the scope of our study, provides no protection opportunity for climate migrants; more clearly, the international community remains unresponsive to the climate migration matter. This unresponsive attitude of the states and the international community regarding the matter of climate migration, requires creation of awareness on the matter of climate migration and establishment of international regulations that will serve the legal struggle to be carried out within this framework. Within the scope of our study, suggestions are made regarding the form of the legal struggle to be carried out against the climate migration matter that threatens the future of humanity; in this framework, it is stated that an international agreement that will serve to provide legal protection to climate migrants should be signed and, through the said agreement, the obligations of states regarding the climate migration matter should be determined and international organisations that will provide coordination and supervision regarding protection of climate migrants should be established.

Külüslü, E

The Legal Dimension of the Climate Migration Matter

Public And Private International Law Bulletin

https://doi.org/10.26650/ppil.2020.40.2.0088

With cities being responsible for up to 70% of energy-related carbon emissions, municipal governments worldwide are becoming increasingly aware of their responsibility to act. Many large cities have committed to mitigation by becoming member of a municipal climate network, such as the C40 or the Compact of Mayors. However, there is no consistent assessment of whether membership of such networks translates into measurable outcomes. To fill this gap, we propose the use of novel outcome variables, combining financial data with geospatial information. As a starting point, this paper compares utility-scale investment in photovoltaics (PV) within the administrative boundaries of large global cities, combining the Bloomberg New Energy Finance database with information from Google Maps. We analyse 512 global cities with a population of above 1 million, and consider the impact of 5 networks and 2 reporting platforms. The results suggest that membership of the C40 network has a positive effect on utility-scale solar PV investment, while no such evidence is found for any of the other networks or reporting platforms under study. Based on our findings, we recommend that municipal climate networks increase their efforts to trigger city regulation that is conducive to solar PV investment. More generally, measuring early indicators, such as low-carbon investment, can help municipal climate networks in their role as 'commitment brokers' for climate action on the ever-more important city level.Key policy insights Cities have considerable policy space to foster utility-scale solar PV investment within their administrative boundaries. While some large global cities exhibited significant growth in utility-scale solar PV, many others with good solar potential did not have a single project by the end of 2016. Outside of China (where city boundaries often include rural areas), Tokyo tops the list with utility-scale solar PV projects by far, followed by San Diego and Rome. Membership of the C40 network appears to make a positive difference to PV investment, unlike other networks or reporting platforms. Outcome measures like low-carbon investment can be used more generally to assess the climate action performance of cities.

Steffen, B; Schmidt, TS; Tautorat, P

Measuring whether municipal climate networks make a difference: the case of utility-scale solar PV investment in large global cities

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1599804

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate recent and upcoming changes in urban planning legislation in the Republic of Lithuania, which acknowledge the necessity of introducing climate change management tools. Sustainable development is a core principle of the Spatial Planning Law of the Republic of Lithuania since 2014. Special attention to the management of climate change is given at the national and municipal levels, and recent legislative initiatives are proof of this. Methodology - this analysis is based on evaluating the main applicable documents and introduced amendments. The theoretical publications, statistical data, and judicial practice are also observed while interpreting the given normative rules. This paper specifically analyses the legal requirements enshrined in Lithuanian law that are intended to foster sustainable development. New amendments to manage climate change are also analysed. In addition, the solutions of the Vilnius Master Plan are presented, as they introduced the principle of sustainable development before it became a national rule, as well as climate change management measures. Findings - the analysis reveals that national regulation only sets out the principles for spatial planners, and it is left to local governments to make final decisions on what exact measures may be introduced for the purpose of ensuring sustainable development and climate change management via spatial planning. This is a cause for concern and should lead to renewed calls for a coherent and ambitious approach to introduce the specific measures at the national level - at least in the by - laws to ensure consistent and unified application. Despite the vague wording employed by the regulations, the Vilnius Master Plan actively encourages the introduction of measures which could help in ensuring sustainable development and climate change management via spatial planning. Originality/value - this article is the first to analyse the newly adopted principle of sustainable development in the light of climate change management via spatial planning regulations in the Republic of Lithuania. In addition, the present analysis contributes to worldwide studies on sustainable development and climate change measures by filling a gap from Lithuania's side, showing recent regulatory changes as a good practice to other jurisdictions.

Klimas, E

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND URBAN PLANNING REGULATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MANAGEMENT MEASURES

Entrepreneurship And Sustainability Issues

https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2020.8.1(2)

Disaster risk reduction is central to managing the risks of climate change at global, national, and sub-national levels. The operationalization of disaster risk reduction, however, has been met with challenges that have restricted successful policy implementation. Drawing from document analyses and Delphi studies with government practitioners, this article examines the policy context for disaster risk reduction in Canada and Australia and investigates the state of flood and drought planning and preparedness. Results are organized around two central themes: risk (ownership and sensitivity) and engagement (stakeholder involvement and capacity-building). The findings show that public policies on disaster risk reduction in Canada and Australia reflect international discourse that advocates for a whole-of-society, risk-sensitive, and risk-informed approach. However, implementing this approach in household planning and preparedness, cross-sector planning and policy integration, terminology, and socio-cultural representation, has been hampered by several factors. Government practitioners in both countries argued that while disaster risk reduction and climate risk management continue to evolve in multi-level governance, policy implementation is constrained by the legacies of past governance arrangements that have enabled disaster risk creation and accumulation. The results presented herein suggest a need for institutional reform that better reflects the holistic and systemic relationships between disaster risk, climate change, and other policy problems. We argue that disaster risk reduction and climate risk management policies require bridging governance arrangements between these and related policy domains to foster effective multi-level implementation. Key policy insights Implementing disaster risk reduction has been inconsistent, exacerbating exposure to climate change and increasing socio-economic vulnerabilities to disaster impacts. Managing climate and disaster risk requires a holistic approach that targets vulnerable groups, tackles underlying drivers of risk, and builds capacities to support disaster risk reduction. Although disaster risk reduction and climate risk management policies continue to evolve, implementation is hindered by legacy governance arrangements that favour economic growth over sustainable, climate-sensitive disaster risk management. Transformation through the integration of disaster risk reduction and human development offers potential pathways to reduce vulnerabilities via a holistic disaster risk and climate policy approach.

Raikes, J; Smith, TF; Baldwin, C; Henstra, D

Disaster risk reduction and climate policy implementation challenges in Canada and Australia

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2048784

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is threefold: first, to understand how Filipino children perceive climate change; second, to determine how children themselves adapt to its impacts; and third, to identify the level of support available at the household, community, and city levels as children adjust to their changing environment. Design/methodology/approach - A qualitative study was conducted in three peri-urban communities in Malolos, Philippines, looking at the perception and adaptation mechanisms of children in the face of climate change, using Lazarus and Folkman's typology for children's coping strategies in stressful situations. The support that children receive at the household, community, and city levels was also examined. Findings - Climate change has impacted the daily lives of children, aggravating in particular the everyday and invisible risks of those who belong to poor households. In general, emotion-focused coping that hinges on denial or distancing did not seem to be prominent among children; many of them were rather pre-disposed to problem-focused coping as they try to cope with the impacts of climate change in their immediate environment. Unfortunately, however, interventions to mitigate the impacts of climate change on children at the household, community, and city levels were found to be lacking. Research limitations/implications - The selected communities do not represent the wide spectrum of localities in the Philippines. At best, findings from the small sample size provide only a snapshot of the conditions of children living in peri-urban areas. Practical implications - The study points to the need for child-sensitive climate change adaptation at the household, community, and city levels to support the coping mechanisms of children. Originality/value - The study adopts a multi-level approach at understanding the impacts of climate change on Filipino children and the interventions that they and other social institutions have undertaken in response thereto. Findings add empirical evidence to growing literature on the subject, especially in the context of the Philippines where academic studies on the matter remain scant.

Berse, K

Climate change from the lens of Malolos children: perception, impact and adaptation

Disaster Prevention And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-10-2016-0214

The global COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the shortcomings of our health, social, and economic systems. While responding to the health crisis, governments are scrambling to understand and address the knock-on economic effects from market disruptions, and respond to other major disturbances (e.g. natural disasters). We conducted 61 key informant interviews with Indo-Fijian small-scale fisheries (SSF) actors (i.e. fishers, boat owners (that may or may not fish), crew members, and traders) in May 2020, two months after Fiji got its first case of COVID-19 and a month after Cyclone Harold hit the country. We examined how these SSF groups whose access to resources depends on their ability to navigate existing social relations of power, have lived through, experienced, and responded to the two stresses. We found the main impact of COVID-19 on SSF actors was the reduction in sales of fish (73.8 % of respondents) likely a result of reduction in local consumption and/or the loss of tourism markets. Loss of purchasing power meant almost a fifth of Indo-Fijian SSF actors interviewed (comprising 44.4 % of crew members, 16.4 % fishers, 11.5 % boat owners, 8.3 % traders) were unable to obtain sufficient food to meet their families' daily needs. Many of these SSF actors do not have access to social security or similar safety nets leaving them vulnerable to the current crisis as well as to other shocks and changes. Furthermore, social inequities and power relations surrounding access to fisheries resources and government aid contributed to their vulnerability to economic stresses from COVID-19 and a severe cyclone. An understanding of early impacts of COVID-19 on SSF through an intersectional lens can assist decision-makers to quickly mobilise assistance to help people who are most vulnerable, and avoid widening inequities among social groups.

Mangubhai, S; Nand, Y; Reddy, C; Jagadish, A

Politics of vulnerability: Impacts of COVID-19 and Cyclone Harold on Indo-Fijians engaged in small-scale fisheries

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.03.003

Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Nino events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Nino, the implications of weather patterns for the food security and vulnerability of rural communities have become more predictable and can be monitored effectively. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how current advances in the understanding of climate variability, weather patterns and food security could contribute to improved humanitarian decision-making. The paper will propose new approaches for triggering humanitarian responses to weather-induced food crises.

Haile, M

Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa

Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society B-Biological Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1746

Adaptation finance is primarily allocated to multilateral entities and national governments, rather than local organizations. This means that the social, political and economic processes that create and sustain inequalities within a country will be the same processes that determine how adaptation finance is used. Using an urban lens, we consider the obstacles currently faced by local governments and local civil society groups in accessing adaptation finance, and show that these are a function of systemic power imbalances between levels of government, and between government and vulnerable communities. We argue that even relatively small amounts of adaptation finance could have a catalytic effect on the capacities and impacts of local organizations, contributing to greater levels of both distributive and procedural justice. We analyse different financial intermediaries and planning systems that could be used to make disbursements from multilateral climate funds fairer and more effective. This could potentially create political opportunities both to respond to direct climate threats and to address underlying drivers of vulnerability, such as marginalization and exclusion. In this way, channelling adaptation finance to the local level could deliver more just processes and outcomes.Key policy insights More multilateral climate funds should establish direct access modalities, and introduce fit-for-purpose' accreditation procedures and approval processes. Those that have already established such enabling frameworks should prioritize providing readiness support to local organizations, and incentivize state and citizen collaboration in adaptation projects.National governments should consider clearly enshrining the rights and responsibilities of local authorities in National Adaptation Plans, and help them to collect the information, build the capacities and acquire the resources needed to plan and implement adaptation measures. National governments should further encourage local authorities to adopt participatory planning, budgeting, monitoring and evaluation procedures to encourage citizen participation.Local civil society groups should identify or establish collective entities that can seek accreditation with multilateral funds and then disburse money to their members. Collaboration between groups can facilitate up-scaling through replication (particularly where peer-to-peer learning is embedded in the network) and reduce the transaction costs associated with myriad small projects.

Colenbrander, S; Dodman, D; Mitlin, D

Using climate finance to advance climate justice: the politics and practice of channelling resources to the local level

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2017.1388212

In Fiji, low-lying coastal villages are beginning to retreat and relocate in response to coastal erosion, flooding and saltwater intrusion. Planned relocation is considered a last resort as a form of adaptation to the impacts of climatic and environmental change. The health impacts of planned relocation are poorly understood. This paper draws on data from multi-year research with residents of the iTaukei (Indigenous) Fijian village of Vunidogoloa. We used qualitative research methods to examine experiences of planned relocation, including residents' accounts of their health and quality of life. In-depth interviews and group discussions were conducted with villagers living in a site of relocation, at four points in time (2015, 2016, 2019, and 2020). Twenty-seven people in Vunidogoloa, Fiji, participated in in-depth interviews, several on more than one occasion. Six group discussions with between eight to twelve participants were also conducted. Qualitative analytic software (NVivo) was used to analyse interview transcripts and identify themes. Villagers report both health benefits and challenges following planned relocation. Key facilitators for good health include movement away from some environmental risks to health, adequate drinking water and sanitation, food security including through farms and kitchen gardens, livelihood opportunities, improved access to schools and health services, and appropriate housing design. However, residents also refer to unanticipated risks to health including increased consumption of packaged goods and alcohol, disruptions to social structures and traditional values, and disrupted place attachment following movement away from a coastal site of belonging with consequences for mental wellbeing. Therefore, planned relocation has altered the social determinants of health in complex ways, bringing both health opportunities and risks. These results highlight the need for context-specific planning and adaptation programs that include meaningful involvement of community members in ongoing decision making, and call for an understanding of diverse social determinants of health that emerge and evolve in contexts of planned relocation.

McMichael, C; Powell, T

Planned Relocation and Health: A Case Study from Fiji

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18084355

The necessity of incorporating a resilience-informed approach into urban planning and its decision-making is felt now more than any time previously, particularly in low and middle income countries. In order to achieve a successful transition to sustainable, resilient and cost-effective cities, there is a growing attention given to more effective integration of nature-based solutions, such as Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS), with other urban components. The experience of SuDS integration with urban planning, in developed cities, has proven to be an effective strategy with a wide range of advantages and lower costs. The effective design and implementation of SuDS requires a multi-objective approach by which all four pillars of SuDS design (i.e., water quality, water quantity, amenity and biodiversity) are considered in connection to other urban, social, and economic aspects and constraints. This study develops a resilience-driven multi-objective optimisation model aiming to provide a Pareto-front of optimised solutions for effective incorporation of SuDS into (peri)urban planning, applied to a case study in Brazil. This model adopts the SuDS's two pillars of water quality and water quantity as the optimisation objectives with its level of spatial distribution as decision variables. Also, an improved quality of life index (iQoL) is developed to re-evaluate the optimal engineering solutions to encompass the amenity and biodiversity pillars of SuDS. Rain barrels, green roofs, bio-retention tanks, vegetation grass swales and permeable pavements are the suitable SuDS options identified in this study. The findings show that the most resilient solutions are costly but this does not guarantee higher iQoL values. Bio-retention tanks and grass swales play effective roles in promotion of water quality resilience but this comes with considerable increase in costs. Permeable pavements and green roofs are effective strategies when flood resilience is a priority. Rain barrel is a preferred solution due to the dominance of residential areas in the study area and the lower cost of this option.

McClymont, K; Cunha, DGF; Maidment, C; Ashagre, B; Vasconcelos, AF; de Macedo, MB; dos Santos, MFN; Gomes, MN; Mendiondo, EM; Barbassa, AP; Rajendran, L; Imani, M

Towards urban resilience through Sustainable Drainage Systems: A multi-objective optimisation problem

Journal Of Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111173

The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent protectionary lockdowns have had a dramatic impact on agricultural production globally. Barishal division is the 'grain-basket' of Bangladesh and a main rice cultivation centre within the country. This study captures perspectives on the environmental socioeconomic stressors impacting primary production in the coastal region of Barishal, and the impact of the first wave of the global pandemic. In our methodology, a cross-sectional survey is carried out amongst agriculture officers and farmers focusing on land management practices, environmental stressors, and the consequences of the pandemic on winter crop harvests and wet season production. A total number of 234 people participated, of which 31 were agriculture officers and 203 were farmers. Government officers completed an online questionnaire, while farmer responses were collected through Focus Group Discussion. The results show that despite the lockdown, 76% of responders claimed that they had harvested more than 80% of the cultivated winter rice. Other crops, such as fruits and vegetables, were less successfully returned. Despite food production pressures, land capacity was not fully utilised, with a significant/notable proportion of fields left fallow, principally due to periodic flooding events that sufferer concurrently from soil organic matter depletion. Upazila, not severely waterlogged, had salinity problems to contend with. While transportation restrictions and labour shortages were key constraints arising from the impact of COVID-19 on both agricultural production and post harvesting (processing, distribution, and utilisation). Current storage facilities for perishable produce, such as fruit, were found to be lacking, which further compounded access to such food items. The COVID-19 pandemic shocked agricultural productivity and food supply within the Barishal division. However, despite managing to return a successful rice harvest during the lockdown, it was found that the pre-existing environmental stressors arising from cyclones and flooding continued to be the primary threat to agriculture, even during a global pandemic. Our findings have been used to inform management options to increase resilience in the region.

Ali, SS; Ahmad, MR; Shoaib, JUM; Sheik, MA; Hoshain, MI; Hall, RL; Macintosh, KA; Williams, PN

Pandemic or Environmental Socio-Economic Stressors Which Have Greater Impact on Food Security in the Barishal Division of Bangladesh: Initial Perspectives from Agricultural Officers and Farmers

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13105457

Understanding land users' livelihoods and their strategies is essential in order to adapt prevention and adaptation policies and to ensure sustainable land management (SLM) planning. Considering the global call for SLM, and due to a lack of studies on land degradation (LD) in Tunisia, we aimed to explore the livelihoods of farmers, their livelihoods strategies and perceptions about LD and land management, in order to design SLM in rural areas in Tunisia. We used the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) to analyse the livelihoods assets, livelihoods strategies, and the perceptions of people about LD and SLM. Through structured interviews with 90 households, we collected both quantitative and qualitative data on household assets, strategies, and perceptions. Results indicate variation in the status of livelihoods among households, which influences their livelihoods strategies and consequently livelihoods outcomes. When facing environmental issues, farm households apply various livelihoods strategies to shield themselves from negative impacts and shocks. Our study revealed that farmers in the high-livelihoods-assets category chose economic returns over environmental benefits. Farmers in the low-livelihoods-assets category have generated livelihoods strategies that lead to inappropriate management strategies due to low access to assets and, as a result, contributed to LD. This is because these farmers are more concerned about the immediate constraints of their livelihoods and subsistence than the medium and long-term sustainable land management. Compared to the other two groups, farmers in the medium-livelihoods assets category have the best perceptions and flexibility for SLM compared to the other two categories. Thus, as the quality of land is highly dependent on the way it is managed, environmental and land management planning, and policies should not only consider the rehabilitation of land but also require a better understanding of the livelihoods, strategies and perceptions of people as these remain key drivers that affect land condition.

Jendoubi, D; Hossain, MS; Giger, M; Tomicevic-Dubljevic, J; Ouessar, M; Liniger, H; Speranza, CI

Local livelihoods and land users' perceptions of land degradation in northwest Tunisia

Environmental Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2020.100507

Many policy makers today accept that climate change poses substantial risks to human and natural systems and that effective adaptation is essential. An important element of adaptation policy making and disaster risk management is how to best combine individual with communitarian approaches to resilience building. The difficulty for effective leadership in this effort resides in comprehending various understandings of, and approaches to, resilience and their real-life consequences for affected populations to deal with disasters induced by climate change. Here, we conduct a comparative analysis of 89 influential disaster management leaders in Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. We examine the extent to which their perspectives on resilience and vulnerability are framed by either communitarian or individual-focused notions. Our quantitative analysis of an initial questionnaire and subsequent content analysis of interview transcripts indicate three core findings. Firstly, a tendency towards a communitarian understanding of resilience emerging from the questionnaire was replaced by a more diverse picture during the interviews, including a stronger focus on individual resilience. Secondly, most leaders asserted it was reasonable to expect citizens to be resilient to climate change, particularly when feeling overwhelmed by their responsibility for providing protection during extreme events. Finally, world views among leaders that encourage individual responsibility occluded systemic or reflexive thinking and action to minimize loss. Our study highlights the need for a relational leadership framework underpinned by an ethic of compassion that supports leaders pursuing and implementing policies that reduce harm and suffering in the face of disasters influenced by climate change. Key policy insights Communitarian approaches to resilience and vulnerability provide opportunities for disaster management leaders to better appreciate human suffering and improve their policy advice and decision making to minimize it. Conversely, individualistic approaches drive disaster management leaders' narrow world views that downplay vulnerability whilst shifting responsibility for resilience too far towards individuals. Governments would be well advised to specifically address the root causes of socio-economic vulnerability in resilience policy frameworks. Disaster management leaders would benefit from an ethic of compassion supported by a relational leadership framework that guides their resilience policy advice and decision making to further minimize suffering from disasters.

Crosweller, M; Tschakert, P

Disaster management leadership and policy making: a critical examination of communitarian and individualistic understandings of resilience and vulnerability

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1833825

Climate Change-induced risk events intensify vulnerability and disproportionately affect regions and racialized immigrant communities. Understanding the multiple dimensions of disaster and risk, especially how these are embedded in a broader social-political context, and translated into risk management strategies, have now been identified as priority areas under Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and UN Research Roadmap for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030. Drawing on a relational intersectional approach, this study explores the meanings of climate change disasters and risk reduction strategies from a racialized immigrant community's (i.e., Bangladeshi-Canadian) lived experiences in Calgary, Canada. From our relational research, we learned that extreme climate events (such as forest fires/wildfires, heat waves, flash floods, severe colds, hailstorms, etc.) are the most common stressors unevenly impacting the household economy, physical health, and mental and psychological wellbeing of the racialized immigrant community in Calgary. The community's compounded vulnerability to disaster risks is further aggravated due to their intersectional positionality and structural inequality (systematic marginalization) rooted in the lack of explicit anti-racist policy guidelines in Canada. The community members adapt diverse strategies (mostly reactive) based on their family income, severity and frequency of the exposure to risks, social support system, geographic location (residence), cultural practices, and involvement with community networks. While proposing solutions, they suggested that community-engaged tailored disaster intervention strategy could play an instrumental role in addressing social vulnerability (determinants) and enhancing adaptive capacity at the local level. Moreover, this study calls for a more holistic account of the differential vulnerability context to better understand the structural root causes and emphasizes that upscaling land-based practices and knowledge transmission, ensuring deliberate participation of visible minorities, fostering collective action and integrating local community associations into all stages of disaster management should be the priority for the state agencies to support long-term resilience.

Subroto, S; Datta, R

Perspectives of racialized immigrant communities on adaptability to climate disasters following the UN Roadmap for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030

Sustainable Development

https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2676

Climate change presents a significant planning challenge for water management agencies in the western United States. Changing precipitation and temperature patterns will disrupt their supply and extensive distribution systems over the coming decades, but the precise timing and extent of these impacts remain deeply uncertain, complicating decisions on needed investments in infrastructure and other system improvements. Adaptive strategies represent an obvious solution in principle, but are often difficult to develop and implement in practice. This paper describes work helping the Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA) explicitly develop adaptive policies to respond to climate change and integrating these policies into the organizations' long-range planning processes. The analysis employs Robust Decision Making (RDM), a quantitative decision-analytic approach for supporting decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty. RDM studies use simulation models to assess the performance of agency plans over thousands of plausible futures, use statistical scenario discovery algorithms to concisely summarize those futures where the plans fail to perform adequately, and use these resulting scenarios to help decisionmakers understand the vulnerabilities of their plans and assess the options for ameliorating these vulnerabilities. This paper demonstrates the particular value of RDM in helping decisionmakers to design and evaluate adaptive strategies. For IEUA, the RDM analysis suggests the agency's current plan could perform poorly and lead to high shortage and water provisioning costs under conditions of: (1) large declines in precipitation, (2) larger-than-expected impacts of climate change on the availability of imported supplies, and (3) reductions in percolation of precipitation into the region's groundwater basin. Including adaptivity in the current plan eliminates 72% of the high-cost outcomes. Accelerating efforts in expanding the size of one of the agency's groundwater banking programs and implementing its recycling program, while monitoring the region's supply and demand balance and making additional investments in efficiency and storm-water capture if shortages are projected provides one promising robust adaptive strategy it eliminates more than 80% of the initially-identified high-cost outcomes. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lempert, RJ; Groves, DG

Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water management agencies in the American west

Technological Forecasting And Social Change

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.007

Vulnerability to climate change is a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Econometric and indicator-based approaches have been used to assess vulnerability at regional, national and global scales. However, these approaches often fail to capture how vulnerability varies within regions and communities. Within regions there is often little capacity to distinguish between exposure and sensitivity, while there is potentially considerable variability in adaptive capacity. This study presents a new approach for assessing adaptive capacity at household and village-levels by combining econometric data and landscape ecology measures to generate new types of indicators that provide new insights into local level adaptive capacity. Livelihood security is a key contributor to adaptation and we used the sustainable livelihood framework as a basis for analysis. We combined social survey information with spatial data on different livelihood capitals and integrated these using multivariate statistical methods to generate indicators of adaptive capacity for households and villages. A mixed method approach was used in two contrasting localities in the Nikachu watershed in central Bhutan to gather social and economic data and spatial data on landscape variables. A total of 144 households were selected through simple random sampling and were interviewed across 22 villages in the watershed. Indicators revealed a strong link between adaptive capacity and landscape position. Households at higher elevations generally had lower adaptive capacity, and therefore higher vulnerability to climate change, due to differences in physical, financial, natural and human capitals. These households and villages had lower diversity in income sources, greater dependence on natural resources, less education and training, less access to infrastructure (such as roads), and access to markets than households at lower elevations. Gender was also important, with female headed households having lower adaptive capacity scores. However, some higher elevation households had higher adaptive capacity scores than others due to their capacity to collect the valuable insect fungus, Ophiocordyceps sinensis, from high altitude meadows. These new indicators provide insights into how adaptive capacity varies across scales. They can be used to identify policies and actions to improve adaptive capacity of vulnerable households and communities.

Choden, K; Keenan, RJ; Nitschke, CR

An approach for assessing adaptive capacity to climate change in resource dependent communities in the Nikachu watershed, Bhutan

Ecological Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106293

As climate change threatens coastal areas with more frequent and intense flooding, the federal government has adopted a greater focus on mitigating the effects of natural disasters. While neighborhoods differ in terms of physical risk exposure, they also differ in social vulnerability-the characteristics that influence a community's ability to safely weather a storm, withstand disruptions to employment and housing, navigate the rebuilding process, and eventually return to normal. Funding for federal flood-mitigation projects administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is currently distributed according to a simple metric-the benefits of a project must outweigh its costs. FEMA's approach to cost-benefit analysis (CBA), however, primarily measures physical risk to property while neglecting the long-term, intangible social costs incurred by vulnerable communities. This approach has resulted in higher-property-value communities receiving a disproportionate share of mitigation infrastructure, while lower-income communities are either left without protection or relocated. The distribution of mitigation funding therefore plays a role in exacerbating place-based inequality. This Comment proposes ways in which FEMA could better account for the distributional effects of its projects and promote efficient policies that take into account the full range of social and economic costs associated with natural disasters. It begins by detailing how FEMA neglects to consider distributional outcomes in its mitigation programs, consistent with the single-minded focus on economic efficiency prevalent in federal regulatory decision-making. Next, it surveys empirical research documenting the ways in which FEMA's use of CBA exacerbates wealth inequality and social vulnerability to flooding. The Comment then considers various legal avenues for redressing the disparate impacts resulting from FEMA's policies, concluding that none are likely to be successful. Instead, it offers five policy adjustments that FEMA could implement in its cost-benefit methodology to ensure that resources for flood mitigation are more equitably distributed, emphasizing ways in which these better accord with the agency's own focus on economic efficiency.

McGee, K

A Place Worth Protecting: Rethinking Cost-Benefit Analysis Under FEMA's Flood-Mitigation Programs

University Of Chicago Law Review

Risk, vulnerability, robustness, and resilience are terms that are being used increasingly frequently in a large range of sciences. This paper shows how these terms can be consistently defined based on a decision-theoretic, verbal, and formal definition. Risk is conceived as an evaluation of an uncertain loss potential. The paper starts from a formal decision-theoretic definition of risk, which distinguishes between the risk situation (i.e. the risk analyst's model of the situation in which someone perceives or assesses risk) and the risk function (i.e. the risk analyst's model about how someone is perceiving and assessing risk). The approach allows scholars to link together different historical approaches to risk, such as the toxicological risk concept and the action-based approach to risk. The paper then elaborates how risk, vulnerability, and resilience are all linked to one another. In general, the vulnerability concept, such as the definition of vulnerability by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), goes beyond risk, as it includes an adaptive capacity. Thus vulnerability is mostly seen as a dynamic concept that refers to a certain period of time. If the vulnerability of a system is viewed only at a certain point of time, vulnerability equals risk. In contrast, if we consider dynamic risk in the sense that we include actions that may follow adverse events, risk resembles vulnerability. In this case we speak about adaptive risk management. Similar to vulnerability, resilience incorporates the capability of a system to cope with the adverse effects that a system has been exposed to. Here we distinguish between specified and general resilience. Specified resilience equals (dynamic) vulnerability as the adverse events linked to threats/hazards to which a system is exposed to are known. Robustness can be seen as an antonym to (static) vulnerability. General resilience includes coping with the unknown. In particular, the approach presented here allows us to precisely relate different types of risk, vulnerability, robustness and resilience, and considers all concepts together as part of adaptive risk management.

Scholz, RW; Blumer, YB; Brand, FS

Risk, vulnerability, robustness, and resilience from a decision-theoretic perspective

Journal Of Risk Research

https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2011.634522

In a changing world, identifying the drivers of vulnerability, resilience and robustness (VRR) of agricultural systems has become a major issue. We developed and applied a generic analytical framework to perform a systematic review of studies that quantitatively assess VRR of agricultural systems in temperate climate zones. After a thorough selection process based on visualizing bibliometric networks in the Web of Science database of peer-reviewed articles in English, we show that the core set of the 37 selected studies addressed mainly the effect of climate change on the yield of grassland and crop systems. Synthesis of the studies' results yields some main conclusions, but also reveals differences in the influence of diversity and intensification level. First, the synthesis shows that diversity enhances (i) resilient crop yield dynamics and (ii) levels of grassland biomass, but (iii) its effect on grassland biomass dynamics is unclear. In addition, the effect of crop intensification on yield dynamics depends on (iv) the intensification practice considered (e.g. irrigation, fertilisation), (v) its combination with other practices and (vi) the soil and climate. Transversally, the synthesis reveals that (vii) the nature of species in grasslands or crop rotations (e.g. presence of a legume) and (viii) the nature of farms in a region (e.g. economic size distribution) are strong drivers of VRR, i.e. composition has a strong effect. Furthermore, (ix) the frequency of climate events, (x) short- vs. long-term analysis, (xi) nonlinear effects and (xii) the relative impact of disturbances in comparison with the impact of agricultural practices are all elements that make it difficult to draw clear conclusions about the influence of diversity and intensification. Finally, our results highlight that a functional approach should be used to decipher diversity-productivity relationships, and that agricultural practices and their appropriateness to the pedoclimatic context and local resources must be characterised finely when analysing drivers of VRR.

Dardonville, M; Urruty, N; Bockstaller, C; Therond, O

Influence of diversity and intensification level on vulnerability, resilience and robustness of agricultural systems

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102913

Cities dominate the local climate governance arena, yet both the U.S. and Canada are suburban nations. The vast reaches of suburbia, which far exceed urban cores in land area, population, and emissions impacts, lag on climate action. At the same time, they are comparatively underserved by, and underrepresented within, the policy community. COVID-19 pandemic driven flight from cities to pastoral safety was hyped in the media, but the reality is a more mundane suburban acceleration. As always, suburbs provide more space, 2020s top commodity, at a lower cost. This stands at odds with the prescriptions of urban climate experts, where mixed-use, walkable density is the path to meeting Paris Agreement targets. Without a more expansive approach to subnational action, the popular movement around cities for climate will fail to deliver on its potential. We suggest going beyond narratives that position suburbs as helpful accessories, arguing instead that suburbs themselves can be a locus of climate action. In the context of a green recovery, additional steps include expanding suburban capacity through existing or new networks and supporting organizations engaged in suburban planning to adopt promising practices for equitable, integrated adaptation and mitigation. This approach could be an ideal use of recovery funds, with the potential to parlay immediate action into long-term gains. Governments have always subsidized the suburbs. COVID-19 recovery offers a narrow window to redirect and enhance those subsidies to bring the management of climate impacts within reach. Key policy insights Suburbs, due to their share of population, land area and emissions, must become centres of climate action, not accessories to urban plans. Climate action should be designed to meet the specific circumstances of suburban communities. Examples include focusing on retrofitting existing buildings, integrating mixed-use zoning, and prioritizing demand-side management. Suburban communities can immediately begin adopting the most promising practices for equitable, integrated adaptation and mitigation.

Teicher, HM; Phillips, CA; Todd, D

Climate solutions to meet the suburban surge: leveraging COVID-19 recovery to enhance suburban climate governance

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1949259

Climate governance in Small Island developing States (SIDS) is a pressing priority to preserve livelihoods, biodiversity and ecosystems for the next generations. Understanding the dynamics of climate change policy integration is becoming more crucial as we try to measure the success of environmental governance efforts and chart new goals for sustainable development. At the international level, climate change policy has evolved from single issue to integrated approaches towards achieving sustainable development. New actors, new mechanisms and institutions of governance with greater fragmentation in governance across sectors and levels (Biermann and Pattberg, 2008) make integration of policy in the area of climate change governance even more of a challenge today. What is the Caribbean reality regarding policy coherence in climate change governance? Are the same climate change policy coherence frameworks useful. or indeed applicable for environmental governance in developing states more generally and for SIDS in particular? What are the best triggers to achieve successful climate change policy integration in environmental governance especially as the complex interconnectivity of new actors, institutions and mechanisms make the process of integration even more challenging? What facilitates and what hampers climate policy integration in the regional Caribbean context? This article reviews the debates around policy coherence for climate change governance, creates a framework to test or measure policy coherence and examines how relevant this has been to regional climate change governance processes in Commonwealth Caribbean States. The study found that though at the regional level, there is substantial recognition of the importance of and mechanics involved in climate policy coherence, this has not translated to policy coherence at the regional and national levels. There is a large degree of fragmentation in the application of climate policy in each Caribbean Island with no mechanism to breach the gap. Silos in public environmental governance architectures, unwillingness to share data, insufficient political will; unsustainable project-based funding and lack of accountability among actors are the main challenges to climate policy coherence. The findings fill a gap in the literature on the elements of climate policy coherence from a SIDS perspective. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scobie, M

Policy coherence in climate governance in Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.12.008

National climate change policy and strategies set out a framework for planning and undertaking climate change adaptation as well as mitigation activities at the national and local levels. In this article, we examine the coherence and contradictions between national policies and plans, and its impacts on the implementation of adaptation measures at the local level. We undertook a content review of key climate change policy documents (n = 4) of Nepal. In addition, we conducted a field study in the Rajdevi Community Forest User Group (CFUG) located in the mid-hills of Nepal, which has developed and implemented a community level adaptation plan of action (CAPA). The field study involved household interviews, focus group discussions, and an in-depth analysis of CAPA implementation. The paper found that while policies are coherent for targeting highly affected areas and communities, they deviate from discerning an appropriate planning and implanting unit. The local adaptation plan of action (LAPA) considers the local government as an implementing unit, while the national adaptation program of action (NAPA) puts an emphasis on the local community groups. It suggests that the existing LAPA implementation breaches the provision of community-level institutions for the implementation conceived in the central framework. Despite little attention to promoting food security in climate change policy, through the CAPA, local communities have planned and implemented adaptation measures envisioned in the thematic areas identified in the climate change policy of Nepal: agriculture and food security; forests and biodiversity; water resources and energy; climate-induced disasters; public health; and urban settlements and infrastructure. Nevertheless, the CAPA is not institutionalized under government policies and the institutional framework as a local level implementing unit. So, the consensus for a local implementing unit in the policies has remained a key issue. We suggest identifying a suitable and acceptable unit for implementing climate change adaptation at the community level. Only if an appropriate implementing unit is identified can the policies be successful with a broader acceptance and desirable outcomes enshrined in the climate change policy.

Darjee, KB; Sunam, RK; Koehl, M; Neupane, PR

Do National Policies Translate into Local Actions? Analyzing Coherence between Climate Change Adaptation Policies and Implications for Local Adaptation in Nepal

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su132313115

Arid climate disasters bring huge losses and development pressures to Mongolia Plateau, which is the most sensitive and typical region in the transition zone of arid and semi-arid climate. Since 1980, the policies implemented by the Chinese government exert some effects on the livelihood activities of farmers and herdsmen households but seemed not enough. In this article, we construct a research framework of Disaster vulnerability assessment -contribution of disaster vulnerability factors -driving mechanism of disaster vulnerability - sus-tainable development model. A questionnaire survey and key person interviews were carried out in villages/ gachas of Darhan Muminggan United Banner, Baotou, Inner Mongolia, China, and 967 data were collected from farmers and herdsmen households. On this basis, we constructed an indicators system and a model for the vulnerability assessment of farmers and herdsmen households to arid climate disasters. Then the main influ-encing factors of the vulnerability of farmers and herdsmen households were identified by the factor contribution model. The main research results are as follows: (i) The vulnerability of farmers and herdsmen households was high to arid climate disasters. The vulnerability can be ranked as herdsmen households > combined occupation households > farmers households. (ii) The vulnerability of farmers households was affected by farmland area and income source, drought intensity and household saving, drought frequency and labor capacity are the main influencing factors. (iii) The vulnerability of herdsmen households was affected by arid climate disasters, and induced by the less effective traditional adaptation mode and the lack of new adaptation mode. (iv) The model of mixed livelihood of government and farmers and herdsmen was suggested to improve active and planned adaptation behavior. This study promotes the cross-application of behavioral psychology, social capital, policy externality and other theories in the study of drought disaster vulnerability and the interaction mechanism of farm and pastoral households. It provides reference for the study of disaster vulnerability associated with climate change in similar regions around the world.

Li, WL; Dong, SC; Lin, HY; Li, FJ; Cheng, H; Jin, Z; Wang, S; Zhang, HSG; Hou, PS; Xia, B

Vulnerability of farmers and herdsmen households in Inner Mongolian plateau to arid climate disasters and their development model

Journal Of Cleaner Production

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136853

Developing strategies to mitigate or to adapt to the threats of floods is an important topic in the context of climate changes. Many of the world's cities are endangered due to rising ocean levels and changing precipitation patterns. It is therefore crucial to develop analytical tools that allow us to evaluate the threats of floods and to investigate the influence of mitigation and adaptation measures, such as stronger dikes, adaptive spatial planning, and flood disaster plans. Up until the present, analytical tools have only been accessible to domain experts, as the involved simulation processes are complex and rely on computational and data-intensive models. Outputs of these analytical tools are presented to practitioners (i.e., policy analysts and political decision-makers) on maps or in graphical user interfaces. In practice, this output is only used in limited measure because practitioners often have different information requirements or do not trust the direct outcome. Nonetheless, literature indicates that a closer collaboration between domain experts and practitioners can ensure that the information requirements of practitioners are better aligned with the opportunities and limitations of analytical tools. The objective of our work is to present a step forward in the effort to make analytical tools in flood management accessible for practitioners to support this collaboration between domain experts and practitioners. Our system allows the user to interactively control the simulation process (addition of water sources or influence of rainfall), while a realistic visualization allows the user to mentally map the results onto the real world. We have developed several novel algorithms to present and interact with flood data. We explain the technologies, discuss their necessity alongside test cases, and introduce a user study to analyze the reactions of practitioners to our system. We conclude that, despite the complexity of flood simulation models and the size of the involved data sets, our system is accessible for practitioners of flood management so that they can carry out flood simulations together with domain experts in interactive work sessions. Therefore, this work has the potential to significantly change the decision-making process and may become an important asset in choosing sustainable flood mitigations and adaptation strategies.

Leskens, JG; Kehl, C; Tutenel, T; Kol, T; de Haan, G; Stelling, G; Eisemann, E

An interactive simulation and visualization tool for flood analysis usable for practitioners

Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-015-9651-2

Research on vulnerability and adaptation in social-ecological systems (SES) has largely centered on climate change and associated biophysical stressors. Key implications of this are twofold. First, there has been limited engagement with the impacts of social drivers of change on communities and linked SES. Second, the focus on climate effects often assumes slower drivers of change and fails to differentiate the implications of change occurring at different timescales. This has resulted in a body of SES scholarship that is under-theorized in terms of how communities experience and respond to fast versus slow change. Yet, social and economic processes at global scales increasingly emerge as 'shocks' for local systems, driving rapid and often surprising forms of change distinct from and yet interacting with the impacts of slow, ongoing 'trends'. This research seeks to understand the nature and impacts of social shocks as opposed to or in concert with trends through the lens of a qualitative case study of a coastal community in Mexico, where demand from international seafood markets has spurred rapid development of a sea cucumber fishery. Specifically, we examined what different social-ecological changes are being experienced by the community, how the impacts of the sea cucumber fishery are distinct from and interacting with slower ongoing trends and how these processes are affecting system vulnerability, adaptations and adaptive capacity. We begin by proposing a novel framework for conceptualizing impacts on social systems, as comprised of structures, functions, and feedbacks. Our results illustrate how the rapid-onset of this fishery has driven dramatic changes in the community. New challenges such as the 'gold-rush-style' arrival of new actors, money, and livelihoods, the rapid over-exploitation of fish stocks, and increases in poaching and armed violence have emerged, exacerbating pressures from ongoing trends in immigration, overfishing and tourism development. We argue that there is a need to better understand and differentiate the social and ecological implications of shocks, which present novel challenges for the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities and the sustainability of marine ecosystems.

Kaplan-Hallam, M; Bennett, NJ; Satterfield, T

Catching sea cucumber fever in coastal communities: Conceptualizing the impacts of shocks versus trends on social-ecological systems

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.05.003

The scale of climate migration across the Global South is expected to increase during this century. By 2050, millions of Africans are likely to consider, or be pushed into, migration because of climate hazards contributing to agricultural disruption, water and food scarcity, desertification, flooding, drought, coastal erosion, and heat waves. However, the migration-climate nexus is complex, as is the question of whether migration can be considered a climate change adaptation strategy across both the rural and urban space. Combining data from household surveys, key informant interviews, and secondary sources related to regional disaster, demographic, resource, and economic trends between 1990 and 2020 from north central and central dryland Namibia, we investigate (i) human migration flows and the influence of climate hazards on these flows and (ii) the benefits and dis-benefits of migration in supporting climate change adaptation, from the perspective of migrants (personal factors and intervening obstacles), areas of origin, and areas of destination. Our analysis suggests an increase in climate-related push factors that could be driving rural out-migration from the north central region to peri-urban settlements in the central region of the country. While push factors play a role in rural-urban migration, there are also several pull factors (many of which have been long-term drivers of urban migration) such as perceived higher wages, diversity of livelihoods, water, health and energy provisioning, remittances, better education opportunities, and the exchange of non-marketed products. Migration to peri-urban settlements can reduce some risks (e.g. loss of crops and income due to climate extremes) but amplify others (e.g. heat stress and insecure land tenure). Adaptation at both ends of the rural-urban continuum is supported by deeply embedded linkages in a model of circular rural-urban-rural migration and interdependencies. Results empirically inform current and future policy debates around climate mobilities in Namibia, with wider implications across Africa.

Thorn, JPR; Nangolo, P; Biancardi, RA; Shackleton, S; Marchant, RA; Ajala, O; Delgado, G; Mfune, JKE; Cinderby, S; Hejnowicz, AP

Exploring the benefits and dis-benefits of climate migration as an adaptive strategy along the rural-peri-urban continuum in Namibia

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01973-5

Purpose Despite the present focus on improving the resilience of homes to flooding in UK flood risk management policy and strategy, a general measurement framework for determining levels of flood resilience in UK homes does not exist. In light of this, the aim of this study was to develop a means to evaluate the levels of resilience in flood-prone homes from the perspective of homeowners'. Design/methodology/approach A quantitative research methodology was employed, with empirical data obtained through a postal survey of homeowners who had experienced flooding. The responses received were then analysed using a combination of statistical techniques including agreement/reliability tests and multiple regression to develop a model of flood resilience. Findings A predictive model was developed that allows the resilience of a property to be quantified and measured as perceived by homeowners. The findings indicate that the main factors found to influence the level of flood resilience were: property type (PT), presence of cellar/basement (C/B), property wall type (PWT), property ground floor type (PGFT), kitchen unit type (KU), flood experience (FE), flood source (FS) and flood risk level (FRL). Practical implications The resulting model provides unique insights into resilience levels to the benefit of a range of stakeholders including policy makers (such as Defra/Environment Agency), Local Authority flood teams, property professionals, housing associations and homeowners. As a result, homeowners will be in a better position to determine which interventions should be prioritised to ensure better flood protection. Originality/value This is the first study of its kind to have rigorously quantified the level of flood resilience for individual homes. This study has quantified the effectiveness of individual resilience measures to derive the first reliable means to measure the overall levels of resilience at the individual property level. This is regarded as a significant contribution to the study of flood risk management through the quantification of resilience within individual UK homes, enabling the prioritisation of interventions and the overall monitoring of resilience.

Adedeji, T; Proverbs, DG; Xiao, H; Oladokun, VO

Measuring property flood resilience (PFR) in UK homes

International Journal Of Building Pathology And Adaptation

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJBPA-06-2022-0092

Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost-benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.

Triet, NVK; Dung, NV; Merz, B; Apel, H

Towards risk-based flood management in highly productive paddy rice cultivation - concept development and application to the Mekong Delta

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2859-2018

This study aims to quantitatively assess the impacts of climate change on the flood-prone risk areas in Davao Oriental, Philippines for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100 in comparison with the present situation by identifying flood risk zones based on multisource data, including rainfall, slope, elevation, drainage density, soil type, distance to the main channel, and population density. The future temperatures and rainfall projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used. The future temperatures from the CMIP5 predictions showed that Davao Oriental should experience approximately 1 degrees C and 3 degrees C increases under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the rainfall should slightly increase in the coming years. Among the 39 general circulation models (GCMs) available from CMIP5, the GFDL-ESM2M model showed good agreement with the observed rainfall dataset at the local stations. The intensity of rainfall should increase approximately 69 % in the future, resulting in an increase in the magnitude of the floods. The resulting flood risk map shows that 95.91% of Davao Oriental is presently under the /ow and moderate flood risk categories, and those categories should slightly decrease to 95.75% in the future. The high and very high flood risk areas cover approximately 3 % of the province at present and show no dramatic change in the future. Presently, 28 out of the 183 barangays (towns) are at high and very high risks of floods, whereas in the coming years, only one barangay will be added to the very high risk of floods. These barangays under the high and very high categories of flood risk are primarily situated on riversides and coastal areas. Thus, immediate actions from decision-makers are needed to develop a community-based disaster risk plan under the future conditions.

Cabrera, JS; Lee, HS

Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Prone Areas in Davao Oriental, Philippines

Water

https://doi.org/10.3390/w10070893

International climate finance is an integral part of the global climate policy regime. Because available adaptation finance is significantly below identified needs of developing countries, competition for scarce resources incentivises countries to design projects to align with funding priorities. One of the areas where this dynamic is particularly relevant is regarding transformational change. Transformational adaptation has risen on the climate policy agenda in recognition of the inadequacy of business-as-usual approaches, and the growing urgency of climate change. It is often characterized based on: (i) the intensity or quality of the change (depth); (ii) the distribution of change (breadth) and (iii) the timeframe through which a change occurs (speed). This study analyses how transformational adaptation is articulated in direct access proposals to the Green Climate Fund to assess compatibility between how transformation is conceptualized and the fund's priority of country ownership. Our analysis reveals significant framing of transformation in terms of scalability and replicability of projects, resulting in an approach to transformational adaptation that emphasizes scalable techno-managerial solutions that extend beyond the project site over social and behavioural change at the local level. We argue that without greater attention to inclusive policies that centre on the most vulnerable, climate finance risks becoming another top-down development strategy that prioritizes adaptation strategies that are easily scalable rather than those that address local needs. Key policy insights: Transformational change has risen up the policy agenda, shaping the design of adaptation projects financed by the GCF. Direct access, a mechanism to enhance country ownership and ensure local priorities are represented in climate finance, may be insufficient to mitigate the tensions between the priorities of climate funds and local needs. Project proposals emphasize scalability and replicability in their conceptualisation of transformation. By privileging those aspects of transformational adaptation that can be easily scaled-up or replicated, GCF proposals frame transformation in terms of breadth and speed, rather than depth, resulting in a stronger emphasis on scalable techno-managerial solutions over social and behavioural change.

Kuhl, L; Shinn, J

Transformational adaptation and country ownership: competing priorities in international adaptation finance

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2104791

Climate change poses severe threats to the social, cultural, and economic integrity of indigenous smallholder subsistence farmers, who are intricately linked with their natural ecosystems. Sauria Paharia, a vulnerable indigenous community of Jharkhand, India, are smallholder farmers facing food and nutrition insecurity and have limited resources to cope with climate change. Eighteen villages of Godda district of Jharkhand inhabited by Sauria Paharia community were randomly selected to conduct a mixed methods study. In 11 out of 18 study villages, we conducted focus group discussions (FGDs) to examine the perception of this indigenous community regarding climate change and its impact on agroforestry and dietary diversity. In all 18 villages, household and agricultural surveys were conducted to derive quantitative estimates of household food consumption patterns and agroforestry diversity, which were triangulated with the qualitative data collected through the FGDs. The FGD data revealed that the community attributed local climatic variability in the form of low and erratic rainfall with long dry spells, to reduced crop productivity, diversity and food availability from forests and waterbodies. Declining agroforestry-produce and diversity were reported to cause reduced household income and shifts from subsistence agricultural economy to migratory unskilled wage laboring leading to household food insecurity. These perceptions were supported by quantitative estimates of habitual food consumption patterns which revealed a predominance of cereals over other food items and low agroforestry diversity (Food Accessed Diversity Index of 0.21 +/- 0.15). The adaptation strategies to cope with climate variability included use of climate-resilient indigenous crop varieties for farming, seed conservation and access to indigenous forest foods and weeds for consumption during adverse situations and lean periods. There were mixed views on cultivation of hybrid crops as an adaptation strategy which could impact the sustained utilization of indigenous food systems. Promoting sustainable adaptation strategies, with adequate knowledge and technology, have the potential to improve farmresilience, income, household food security and dietary diversity in this population.

Ghosh-Jerath, S; Kapoor, R; Ghosh, U; Singh, A; Downs, S; Fanzo, J

Pathways of Climate Change Impact on Agroforestry, Food Consumption Pattern, and Dietary Diversity Among Indigenous Subsistence Farmers of Sauria Paharia Tribal Community of India: A Mixed Methods Study

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.667297

Rural households in sub-Saharan Africa earn a substantial part of their living from rain-fed smallholder agriculture, which is highly sensitive to climate change. There is a growing number of multi-level assessments on impacts and adaptation options for African smallholder systems under climate change, yet few studies translate impacts at the individual crop level to vulnerability at the household level, at which other livelihood activities need to be considered. Further, these assessments often use representative household types rather than considering the diversity of households for the identification of larger-scale patterns at sub-national and national levels. We developed a framework that combines crop suitability maps with a household food availability analysis to quantify household vulnerability to climate-related impacts on crop production and effects of adaptation options. The framework was tested for Uganda, identifying four hotspots of household vulnerability across the country. Hotspots were visually identified as areas with a relatively high concentration of vulnerable households, experiencing a decline in household crop suitability. About 30% of the households in the hotspots in (central) southwest were vulnerable to a combination of 3 degrees C temperature increase and 10% rainfall decline through declining suitability for several key crops (including highland banana, cassava, maize and sorghum). In contrast only 10% of the households in West Nile and central northern Uganda were negatively affected, and these were mainly affected by declining suitability of common beans. Households that depended on common beans and lived at lower elevations in West Nile and central north were vulnerable to a 2 to 3 degrees C temperature increase, while households located at higher elevations (above 1100-2000 m.a.s.l. depending on the crop) benefited from such an increase. Options for adaptation to increasing temperatures were most beneficial in northern Uganda, while drought-related adaptation options were more beneficial in the southwest. This framework provides a basis for decision makers who need information on where the vulnerable households are, what crops drive the vulnerability at household level and which intervention efforts are most beneficial in which regions.

Wichern, J; Descheemaeker, K; Giller, KE; Ebanyat, P; Taulya, G; van Wijk, MT

Vulnerability and adaptation options to climate change for rural livelihoods - A country-wide analysis for Uganda

Agricultural Systems

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102663

Adapting to anthropogenic climate change requires informed citizens capable of managing personal and societal risks. This study explores the contribution of climate change education (CCE) to build adolescents' cognitive adaptive capacity. As defined by Grothmann and Patt's (2005) Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC), cognitive dimensions of adaptive capacity correspond to climate change risk perception and adaptation appraisal as preconditions for individual adaptation actions. Their model has been operationalised to examine adolescents' cognitive adaptive capacity in a pre-test-post-test design, and the educational programme Generation F3-Fit for Future is presented as a quasi-experiment linking this concept with CCE. Because cognitive adaptive capacity is a complex and multifaceted concept, this contribution also studies the influence of CCE on knowledge and thinking skills, which are important dimensions as well. Overall, 173 upper-secondary school students aged between 16 and 18 years actively collaborated with 57 scientific and practical experts on climate change adaptation (CCA) in North and South Tyrol. Additionally, the programme included control groups. Over two school years, Generation F3-Fit for Future encouraged students to follow constructivist inquiry-based CCE, and they carried out their own research-oriented CCA projects. A mixed methods approach compared data from a multivariate multilevel mixed model collected by web-based questionnaires (N = 231) and qualitative data from problem-centred interviews (N = 47), which were analysed by documentary method. The results suggest a mismatch between quantitative and qualitative data. Quantitative data do not show any change in adolescents' risk perception and adaptation appraisal, but qualitative data reveal that intervention group students demonstrated increased levels of adaptation knowledge and elaborated critical as well as forward thinking skills. Control group students did not show such capacities after standard curriculum education. It is concluded that CCE holds potential to build several dimensions of adolescents' cognitive adaptive capacity. Upcoming research should further explore mixed research approaches and advance adaptive capacity theory to better understand this concept.

Schrot, OG; Peduzzi, D; Ludwig, D; Riede, M; Keller, L

Is it possible to build adolescents' cognitive adaptive capacity through climate change education? Insights into a two-year long educational programme in North Tyrol (Austria) and South Tyrol (Italy)

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100327

As cities increasingly engage in climate adaptation planning, many are seeking to promote public participation and facilitate the engagement of different civil society actors. Still, the variations that exist among participatory approaches and the merits and tradeoffs associated with each are not well understood. This article examines the experiences of Quito (Ecuador) and Surat (India) to assess how civil society actors contribute to adaptation planning and implementation. The results showcase two distinct approaches to public engagement. The first emphasizes participation of experts, affected communities, and a wide array of citizens to sustain broadly inclusive programmes that incorporate local needs and concerns into adaptation processes and outcomes. The second approach focuses on building targeted partnerships between key government, private, and civil society actors to institutionalize robust decision-making structures, enhance abilities to raise funds, and increase means to directly engage with local community and international actors. A critical analysis of these approaches suggests more inclusive planning processes correspond to higher climate equity and justice outcomes in the short term, but the results also indicate that an emphasis on building dedicated multi-sector governance institutions may enhance long-term programme stability, while ensuring that diverse civil society actors have an ongoing voice in climate adaptation planning and implementation. Policy relevance Many local governments in the Global South experience severe capacity and resource constraints. Cities are often required to devolve large-scale planning and decision-making responsibilities, such as those critical to climate adaptation, to different civil society actors. As a result, there needs to be more rigorous assessments of how civil society participation contributes to the adaptation policy and planning process and what local social, political, and economic factors dictate the way cities select different approaches to public engagement. Also, since social equity and justice are key indicators for determining the effectiveness and sustainability of adaptation interventions, urban adaptation plans and policies must also be designed according to local institutional strengths and civic capacities in order to account for the needs of the poor and most vulnerable. Inclusivity, therefore, is critical for ensuring equitable planning processes and just adaptation outcomes.

Chu, E; Anguelovski, I; Carmin, J

Inclusive approaches to urban climate adaptation planning and implementation in the Global South

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2015.1019822

With rising temperatures, developing countries are exposed to the horrors of climate change more than ever. The poor infrastructure and low adaptation capabilities of these nations are the prime concern of current studies. Pakistan is vulnerable to climate-induced hazards including floods, droughts, water shortages, shifts in weather patterns, loss of biodiversity, melting of glaciers, and more in the coming years. For marginal societies dependent on natural resources, adaptation becomes a challenge and the utmost priority. Within the above context, this study was designed to fill the existing research gap concerning public knowledge of climate vulnerabilities and respective adaptation strategies in the northern Hindukush-Himalayan region of Pakistan. Using the stratified sampling technique, 25 union councils (wards) were selected from the nine tehsils (sub-districts) of the study area. Using the quantitative method approach, structured questionnaires were employed to collect data from 396 respondents. The study reveals varying public perceptions about different factors contributing to the causes and impacts of climate change and the sources of information in the three zones of the study area. The primary causes of climate change are deforestation, industrial waste, anthropogenic impurities, natural causes, and the burning of fossil fuels exacerbated by increased population. Changes in temperature, erratic rainfalls, floods, droughts, receding glaciers, and extreme weather events are some of the impacts observed over the past decades. While limiting the indiscriminate use of fossil fuels combined with government-assisted rehabilitation of forests can help combat climate change, the lack of proper education and economic, social, and governance barriers are hindering the local adaptation strategies. In addition, reduce environmental pollution (air, water, soil, etc.) and plantation polluted areas with suitable plants, are the two main actions in combating climate change. This study recommends policy interventions to enhance local adaptation efforts through building capacity, equipping local environmental institutions, discouraging deforestation, and ensuring sustainable use of natural resources.

Bacha, MS; Muhammad, M; Kiliç, Z; Nafees, M

The Dynamics of Public Perceptions and Climate Change in Swat Valley, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13084464

Building disaster-resilient communities require operative resilience frameworks enabling factual decision-making and resource allocation at national and sub-national scales. While Pakistan is frequently hit by several natural hazards (i.e., floods, droughts, earthquakes, and extreme heatwaves) resulting in devastating impacts, no national-level higher-resolution disaster resilience information is available to provide references for informed planning. Hence, this study provides a, first of its kind, multi-level comprehensive disaster resilience evaluation in Pakistan. To do so, data on a customized list of indicators within three key resilience sub-components (i.e., economic, institutional, and social) are acquired to compute a resilience index. Frequency distribution and the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) methods are employed to analyse the differences between different resilience indices and a cross-regional assessment is carried out at the sub-national level. Subsequently, an extensive spatial assessment is performed using geo-information models (i.e., Global Moran?s I, Local Indicators of Spatial Asso-ciation, and machine learning-based multivariate clustering) to explore the global and local geographies of the resilience. Based on ANOVA, significant differences between the resilience sub-components are found (95% confidence). The geographical distribution of resilience scores ascertains a large spatial heterogeneity across the study area with the least resilient regions belonging to Sindh and Balochistan provinces (95% confidence). As shown by the machine learning-based multivariate clustering, the least resilient regions particularly lack in economic and institutional aspects of disaster resilience. The findings provide important references to ensure resilience management-related cross-regional equity and justice. The rigorous analyses regarding the geographies of disaster resilience in Pakistan are important to support the country?s disaster risk reduction efforts. While the results are useful for practitioners, decision-makers, and professionals in the risk management field, the study has important policy-relevant implications in the context of disaster risk mitigation strategies.

Sajjad, M

Disaster resilience in Pakistan: A comprehensive multi-dimensional spatial profiling

Applied Geography

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102367

The last 60 years have witnessed advanced technological innovation for disaster risk reduction (DRR) with the invention of high-resolution satellite imagery, digital cartography and modern engineering building techniques to high-yielding agricultural production. However, none have been highly satisfying in lessening the impact of disasters. The significant factor for the limited success of modern scientific society is that it views the world from a temporal perspective where humans are believed to be an active agent in modifying every natural possibility into opportunity. The very composite environmental system is simplified whilst extracting resources, resulting in resource depletion and environmental degradation, consequently opening the door for disaster. Technocratic science must recognise the need for a relational or holistic approach rather than believing in reductionist approaches alone whilst dealing with natural calamities. In this context, the knowledge of traditional societies is important to fill up the existing gaps created by the modern society. Traditional knowledge has different sets of ingredients to foster the development of the relational or holistic approach as it involves, interacts and interconnects humans, non-humans (animals and plants) and nature together, setting a perfect balance for sustainable development and DRR. It has vast undocumented observational data of changing natural phenomena, and in today's scenario of climate change and uncertainty, it can create a path for reliable adaptation measures from climate-induced disasters. Thus, a holistic approach is needed for comprehensive DRR measures where both scientific and traditional knowledge systems can work together. The main purpose of this article was to explore the effective ingredients of traditional knowledge in DRR and how this age-old wisdom can be offered a hand to its integration into and collaboration with scientific research and management for DRR. To fulfil the objectives, a theoretical desk study approach was followed by identifying relevant studies, highlighting traditional knowledge in DRR from empirical and grey literatures, archive materials, biblical stories and so on. This research highlights some of the good practices of traditional knowledge in DRR and the possible path of collaboration of two knowledge systems in DRR.

Rai, P; Khawas, V

Traditional knowledge system in disaster risk reduction: Exploration, acknowledgement and proposition

Jamba-Journal Of Disaster Risk Studies

https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v11i1.484

Hurricanes and flood-related events cause more direct economic damage than any other type of natural disaster. In the United States, that damage totals more than USD 1 trillion in damages since 1980. On average, direct flood losses have risen from USD 4 billion annually in the 1980s to roughly USD 17 billion annually from 2010 to 2018. Despite flooding's tremendous economic impact on US properties and communities, current estimates of expected damages are lacking due to the fact that flood risk in many parts of the US is unidentified, underestimated, or available models associated with high quality assessment tools are proprietary. This study introduces an economic-focused Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) approach that builds upon an our existing understanding of prior assessment methods by taking advantage of a newly available, climate adjusted, parcel-level flood risk assessment model (First Street Foundation, 2020a and 2020b) in order to quantify property level economic impacts today, and into the climate adjusted future, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and NASA's Global Climate Model ensemble (CMIP5). This approach represents a first of its kind-a publicly available high precision flood risk assessment tool at the property level developed completely with open data sources and open methods. The economic impact assessment presented here has been carried out using residential buildings in New Jersey as a testbed; however, the environmental assessment tool on which it is based is a national scale property level flood assessment model at a 3 m resolution. As evidence of the reliability of the EIA tool, the 2020 estimated economic impact (USD 5481 annual expectation) was compared to actual average per claim-year NFIP payouts from flooding and found an average of USD 5540 over the life of the program (difference of less than USD 100). Additionally, the tool finds a 41.4% increase in average economic flood damage through the year 2050 when environmental change is included in the model.

Armal, S; Porter, JR; Lingle, B; Chu, ZY; Marston, ML; Wing, OEJ

Assessing Property Level Economic Impacts of Climate in the US, New Insights and Evidence from a Comprehensive Flood Risk Assessment Tool

Climate

https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8100116

The Markov stochastic chain model and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) were used as tools to support decision-making for the best crop-planting choice in the city of Caxias do Sul, Brazil. Temperature and precipitation information were collected from the Meteorological Database for Teaching and Research of the National Institute of Meteorology of Brazil for the period 1997-2017. The stochastic model was applied to obtain the probability of transition between a range of variations for temperature and precipitation. In the second phase of the study, an algebraic model was developed, making it possible to link the probability of the Markov chain transition matrix to the AHP judgment matrix. In the third phase, the AHP was applied as a tool to determine the most beneficial crop that could be planted for the studied city, considering the evaluated criteria: temperature, precipitation, and soil pH. The alternatives for crop planting were carrots, tomatoes, apples, and grapes. These were chosen because they are the most-planted crops in the city of Caxias do Sul. The ranking of the benefit-force results of applying the model for spring was carrots (0.297), apples (0.259), grapes (0.228), and tomatoes (0.215); for summer: grapes (0.261), tomatoes (0.261), apples (0.238), and carrots (0.230); for autumn: carrots (0.316), grapes (0.243), tomatoes (0.228), and apples (0.213); and for winter: carrots (0.327), tomatoes (0.235), apples (0.222), and grapes (0.216). Thus, it was concluded that farmers would have a better chance of success if they planted carrots during the spring, autumn, and winter, and grapes during the summer.

Vargas, VB; Corso, L; Vallejos, RV

Markov chains to determine the probability of climate change for planting selection in the city of Caxias do Sul

Ciencia Rural

https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-8478cr20200840

China suffers the most serious loss of life and property with the most floods in the world. In this study, a multi-criteria analysis model with the combined analytic hierarchy process and Entropy weight method (AHP-Entropy) was proposed to assess the long and short-term flood risk in Poyang Lake basin, and results were verified by several flood events that happened on July 2020. Considering multi-factors of flood risk, six flood hazard factors (namely, maximum three-day rainfall (RMAX3), annual average rainstorm frequency (RF), annual average rainstorm amount (ARA), drainage density (DD), slope, elevation (DEM)) and four flood vulnerability factors (namely, population density (PD), land use pattern (LUP), GDP, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) were selected and weights of them were derived from the AHP-Entropy method. Results show that PD (0.168), RMAX3 (0.163), LUP (0.146), GDP (0.129), and RF (0.111) play a vital role in the results of flood risk assessment. Spatially, the long and short-term flood risk maps are shown to have similar characteristics with correlation coefficient of 0.9056. Areas with high risk and very high risk account for 19.6% of the total area in the long-term flood risk map and increased to 22.2% in the short-term flood risk map. Overall, the northeastern parts of the Poyang Lake basin are more prone to floods and the flood risk gradually decreases from the Poyang Lake towards the surrounding areas. Verification of the results with Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar data shows that the flood risk assessment model has an accuracy of more than 50% in very high risk zones for floods, and more than 90% for high and very high risk floods, which showed that the presented model is reliable in flood risk assessment.

Wu, JR; Chen, XL; Lu, JZ

Assessment of long and short-term flood risk using the multi-criteria analysis model with the AHP-Entropy method in Poyang Lake basin

International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102968

Countering climate challenges requires genuine multi-layered approaches in cooperation with various stakeholders. Spanning 20 years, the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) has been facilitating the research community to provide regional and grassroots results and solutions, while acting as a mechanism to encourage science-policy-stakeholder dialogue. This paper outlines the relevance of APN projects to IPCC policymaking by laying out knowledge products and lessons learned from the projects. It also narrates how regional research and capacity building assist in responding to the increasing urgency across climate change and the SDGs. A synthesis of project-generated knowledge was garnered from research and capacity development studies conducted under the auspices of APN to identify their scope and level of policy relevance. A combined typology and solution scanning with Likert scale as relevance rating was employed to categorize contribution against key themes of the IPCC sixth assessment report. Findings suggest 115 distinct and relevant projects completed mostly in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Temperate East Asia, with many of them asserting community-based adaptation and mitigation surrounding issues on ecosystems and biodiversity, extreme weather events, water-food-energy nexus, sustainable waste management, and climate education. Findings also show 163 knowledge products in which majority of them (66.87%) were peer-reviewed journal articles, 11.04% were reports, 7.98% were policy briefs, 6.75% were guidelines and tools, 4.91% were books and 2.45% were perspectives and opinions. With the evolving synergies between global climate targets and the SDGs, it is recommended that APN solidify its role in science-policy partnerships and networking by creating improved interlinkages for disseminating knowledge gaps filled and in replicating lessons learned and best practices found in APN knowledge products. In addition to science-policy dialogues and output synthesis, a regular review of APN research and capacity development outcomes will help in realizing these important aspects toward wider policy impact.

Uchiyama, C; Stevenson, LA; Tandoko, E

Climate change research in Asia: A knowledge synthesis of Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (2013-2018)

Environmental Research

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109635

Climate change impacts on population health and wellbeing are spatially and socially distributed, and shape place-based capacities, constraints, and priorities for climate change adaptation. Inuit across the Circumpolar North have called for public health monitoring and response systems that integrate environmental and human health data, and provide localized information to support place-based adaptation strategies. The goal of this research was to qualitatively characterize how Inuit in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada, identify, interpret, and use environmental and climatic observations to make decisions that will protect and promote their health and wellbeing in the context of climate change. Inuit community research leads conducted in-depth, semi-structured interviews with Rigolet Inuit to identify and contextualize environmental and climatic observations that were important for monitoring. Under the direction of community research leads, qualitative data from interviews were analyzed by the core research team using constant-comparative thematic analysis methods to ensure emergent findings were grounded in the voices and perspectives of Rigolet Inuit. Rigolet Inuit considered all climatic and environmental observations to be connected and emphasized the importance of collective, intergenerational knowledge in understanding and adapting to current and future climate change. The ways that Rigolet Inuit interpreted and used these observations for making decisions depended on perceived relevance and importance of observations, trustworthiness of information, and personal thresholds for risks. Knowledge shared by Rigolet Inuit demonstrated the nuanced, relational nature of how climatic and environmental observations are identified, interpreted, and used in decision-making for place-based climate change adaptation. It is important to prioritize these place-based and locally validated ways of knowing and learning about the land in the development of integrated monitoring systems to inform adaptation strategies that are based on a community's existing resilience and creativity, and premised on relationships among people and places. In so doing, we can identify entry points for improving the ways in which monitoring systems function to link environment and health data, and inform robust, evidence-based adaptation strategies and policies.

Sawatzky, A; Cunsolo, A; Shiwak, I; Flowers, C; Jones-Bitton, A; Gillis, D; Middleton, J; Wood, M; Government, RIC; Harper, SL

It depends horizontal ellipsis : Inuit-led identification and interpretation of land-based observations for climate change adaptation in Nunatsiavut, Labrador

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01772-4

Community engagement and integrated research are key approaches to solving complex socio-ecological challenges. This paper describes the experience of bringing together a team of natural and social scientists from Australia and Indonesia in the 'Gambut Kita' (translated as 'Our Peat') project. Gambut Kita aims to produce new knowledge and support efforts to successfully, and equitably, restore Indonesia's tropical peatlands and ensure that livelihoods can be maintained on restored (rewetted) landscapes. The paper focuses on experiences of using community engagement for integrated research. It discusses three community engagement approaches used in the project-resilience, adaptation pathways and transformation approach (RAPTA), participatory rural appraisal (PRA), and community-led analysis and planning (CLAP). It also describes the qualitative analysis of 14 interviews with the project team of lessons learned in community engagement for integrated research. 'Criteria for success' from the literature on international development projects is used to assess progress. The findings highlight the specific complexities of working across countries and cultures. Successful community engagement is not so much about the 'tool' but about the trust, agency, and support to change. The tools do, however, have different strengths. PRA and CLAP can build deep community understanding and relationships. RAPTA has strengths in framing visions and pathways to the future, systems thinking, anticipatory learning, and taking a cross-scale systems view which is required to solve many of the problems manifesting at local or community scales. Similarly, success in integrated research is not just about individuals, but structures (e.g. explicit process) and infrastructure (e.g. access to technology). These findings suggest that integrated research needs special considerations in terms of design, and these relate across scales to individual researchers as well as teams, leaders and organisations. Integrated research projects need careful, inclusive, iterative management with a lot of interaction to learn from each other, build a common vision, achieve clarity of roles, and share emerging findings.

Fleming, A; Agrawal, S; Dinomika; Fransisca, Y; Graham, L; Lestari, S; Mendham, D; O'Connell, D; Paul, B; Po, M; Rawluk, A; Sakuntaladewi, N; Winarno, B; Yuwati, TW

Reflections on integrated research from community engagement in peatland restoration

Humanities & Social Sciences Communications

https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-021-00878-8

Current, spatially explicit, and high-resolution assessments of population vulnerability to climate change and variability in developing countries can be difficult to create due to lack of data or financial and technical capacity constraints. We propose a comparative, multiple-approach framework to assess the spatial variation of population vulnerability to climatic changes using several high-resolution variables related to climate, topography, and socioeconomic conditions with an objective to detect the spatial variability of climate vulnerability in Nepal. Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change due to frequent climatic hazards and poor socio-economic capacity. We used a climate vulnerability index (CVI) approach to derive climate vulnerability maps at the one-kilometer resolution and test an additive and a principal components-based composite method of data aggregation. In this work, we attempt to answer three questions. 1) How do different methods of assessment inform the spatial variation of the climate vulnerability in Nepal? 2) How do different variables interact to shape climate vulnerability in Nepal? 3) What proportions of the population in Nepal are vulnerable to climatic disasters and why? Our analysis uncovered significant spatial variations in population vulnerability to climate change across Nepal, with the highest vulnerability being experienced by the High Mountain region followed by the regions in the lower elevations. We find that although the lack of adaptive capacity is the biggest cause of population vulnerability to climate change in Nepal, a resilient community is shaped by both biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics. By performing an iterative sensitivity analysis of our thirteen variables both at the aggregate level (nationally) as well as at the more disaggregated (physiographic region) level, we contribute to identifying important, multi-scalar driving factors for vulnerability that can be employed as leverage points for lowering vulnerability at different scales. After performing analyses at multiple regions, we conclude that region-specific variable selection is needed for more detailed assessments and in order to prioritize adaptation strategies at scales that go beyond the hierarchy of administrative divisions. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mainali, J; Pricope, NG

High-resolution spatial assessment of population vulnerability to climate change in Nepal

Applied Geography

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.03.008

The cyclone tracks from 1877 to 2020 were analyzed to detect the spatial and temporal intensity. The tracks were gathered from previously published works. The previous articles' tracks were digitized and converted to shape files for analysis in Arc-GIS. A total 126 cyclone tracks were used to detect monthly and seasonal cyclone intensity and spatial variations. The fluctuations were examined over a 30-year period, which is believed to be the climate of a particular location. Tropical cyclones hit the Bay of Bengal's coast starting in May and lasting until December. In May and October, the number of cyclones is at its peak (26 nos in each month). From June through September, the number of cyclones fell. In October and November, the number of cyclones increased dramatically. The number of cyclones substantially fell in December, and no cyclones were observed from January through March. From 1939 through 1969, the highest number of cyclones (36) was recorded. In the mid- and late-twentieth century, there were a higher number of cyclones. The coastal region of Bangladesh suffered the fewest cyclones in history over the recent era (2001-2020). The western shore was particularly vulnerable from 1877 to 1907, and the entire coastal region was dangerous from 1908 to 2000. In the Post-monsoon (October to December) season, the number of cyclones is lower than in the Monsoon period (May to September). In the pre-monsoon season, 71 cyclones strike, while in the Monsoon season, 53 cyclones strike. (c) 2022 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communication Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Nasher, NR; Karim, KR; Islam, MY

Spatio-temporal variation of cyclone intensity over the coastal region of Bangladesh using 134 years track analysis

Tropical Cyclone Research And Review

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2022.02.001

A growing body of community resilience literature emphasizes the importance of social resources in preparing for and responding to disturbances. In particular, scholars have noted that community based organizations and strong social networks positively contribute to adaptive capacity, or the ability to adjust and respond to change while enhancing the conditions necessary to withstand future events. While it is well established that strong civic engagement and social networks contribute to enhanced adaptive capacity in times of change, there is more to learn about how adaptive capacity at the civic group and network level is impacted temporally by multiple and compounding crises. Research has shown that the ability for communities to adapt and respond to crisis is closely tied to longer term recovery. In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has overlapped and intersected with multiple additional climate crises as well as a reigniting of the ongoing American reckoning with racial injustice, the ability for communities to adapt and respond to compounding crises seems more crucial than ever. This paper uses qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with 34 civic environmental stewardship groups in New York City to explore their role in building adaptive capacity. In order to better understand how past crises have impacted stewardship groups' response to COVID-19, we focus on how groups have demonstrated flexibility and learning at an organizational scale. We look at two other crises, both acute (Superstorm Sandy, which hit the East Coast in 2012) and chronic (systemic racism) to identify instances of learning that lead to organizational transformation. We further aim to understand how group professionalization, measured by budget and staff size, and network connectivity impact their actions. By comparing the groups' experiences and responses to each event, we uncover strategies learned from past events (e.g., sharing contact lists, holding internal dialogues, leveraging new funding sources) that enable stewardship groups to respond to disaster in a way that builds their organizational adaptive capacity as well as contributes to the long-term resilience of their communities.

Landau, LF; Campbell, LK; Svendsen, ES; Johnson, ML

Building Adaptive Capacity Through Civic Environmental Stewardship: Responding to COVID-19 Alongside Compounding and Concurrent Crises

Frontiers In Sustainable Cities

https://doi.org/10.3389/frsc.2021.705178

Critical infrastructure networks, including transport, are crucial to the social and economic function of urban areas but are at increasing risk from natural hazards. Minimizing disruption to these networks should form part of a strategy to increase urban resilience. A framework for assessing the disruption from flood events to transport systems is presented that couples a high-resolution urban flood model with transport modelling and network analytics to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall events, and to quantify the resilience value of different adaptation options. A case study in Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK shows that both green roof infrastructure and traditional engineering interventions such as culverts or flood walls can reduce transport disruption from flooding. The magnitude of these benefits depends on the flood event and adaptation strategy, but for the scenarios considered here 3-22% improvements in city-wide travel times are achieved. The network metric of betweenness centrality, weighted by travel time, is shown to provide a rapid approach to identify and prioritize the most critical locations for flood risk management intervention. Protecting just the top ranked critical location from flooding provides an 11% reduction in person delays. A city-wide deployment of green roofs achieves a 26% reduction, and although key routes still flood, the benefits of this strategy are more evenly distributed across the transport network as flood depths are reduced across the model domain. Both options should form part of an urban flood risk management strategy, but this method can be used to optimize investment and target limited resources at critical locations, enabling green infrastructure strategies to be gradually implemented over the longer term to provide citywide benefits. This framework provides a means of prioritizing limited financial resources to improve resilience. This is particularly important as flood management investments must typically exceed a far higher benefit-cost threshold than transport infrastructure investments. By capturing the value to the transport network from flood management interventions, it is possible to create new business models that provide benefits to, and enhance the resilience of, both transport and flood risk management infrastructures. Further work will develop the framework to consider other hazards and infrastructure networks.

Pregnolato, M; Ford, A; Robson, C; Glenis, V; Barr, S; Dawson, R

Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks

Royal Society Open Science

https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.160023

It is important to understand the effects of higher levels of market participation on the resilience of mixed-subsistence communities to climate change. Climate models predict that the Pacific Islands and other regions with mixed-subsistence communities will experience increased climate variability, including more frequent cyclones and prolonged droughts. Authors suggest that development agencies should help to increase levels of household market participation, or the proportion of household output that is marketable, in rural communities because those households with more financial assets are better equipped to respond to climatic disturbances [Pettengell, C., & Oxfram, P. G. (2010). Climate change adaptation: Enabling people living in poverty to adapt. Oxfram International Research Report.]. Other authors suggest that, because all socio-ecological systems are inherently vulnerable, increasing financial assets may not reduce the vulnerabilities of rural communities to natural hazards [Lauer, M., Albert, S., Aswani, S., Halpern, B. S., Campanella, L., & Rose, D. L. (2013). Globalization, Pacific Islands, and the paradox of resilience. Global Environmental Change, 23, 40-0]. Likewise, authors claim that food-sharing and other forms of social capital are more important to the resilience of mixed-subsistence communities to climate change than are financial assets [Smit, B., & Wandel, J. (2006). Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16, 282-292]. This article demonstrates that higher levels of household market participation are not associated with smaller social networks in Samoa, which shows that households in mixed- subsistence communities that are more engaged in the market do not necessarily have less social capital than others. The article also demonstrates that social institutions shape the relationships among variables of community-perceived adaptive capacity. Future policy changes and other adaptations that satisfy an increased demand for cash may ultimately reduce local-level resilience.

Vickers, JB

More money, more family: the relationship between higher levels of market participation and social capital in the context of adaptive capacity in Samoa

Climate And Development

https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2017.1291404

Smallholder farmers in the Loess Plateau Region of China are highly vulnerable to climate change. Effective adaptation governance requires in-depth, situated understanding of how adaptation is embedded in particular environmental, social, political, economic, and institutional contexts. Drawing on 93 qualitative interviews with smallholder households in five counties across three provinces on the Loess Plateau, we use a multi-scalar pathways approach to analyze two particular adaptations (planting maize and adopting drip irrigation). Our results show (1) how historical and ongoing multi-scalar, social ecological processes interact to shape smallholder adaptation decision-making, leading to synergies, tensions, and contradictions across risk management domains and social institutions; (2) whether an adaptation strategy persists over time is in part determined by the extent to which the strategy allows smallholder households to manage various forms of risk and uncertainty in both the present and future; and (3) how past and ongoing multi-scalar adaptation pathways determine not only smallholder exposure to current stressors but also possible choices for future adaptation. Specifically, we find some smallholder adaptive strategies, such as planting maize, stabilize over time because they enable smallholders to manage market risk, climatic risk, and water pollution challenges, allow them to take advantage of opportunities to diversify their livelihoods through local wage work and labor migration, and, at the same time, fit the local social institutions that guide their agricultural management decisions. We also find some adaptive strategies promoted by non-local actors, such as drip irrigation, are abandoned because they create tensions with the ways smallholders construct their livelihoods to manage various forms of uncertainty and risk, and contradict the local social relations and cultural values embedded in their day-to-day lives. Together, these results provide insight into why particular smallholder adaptation pathways become stabilized and reproduced over time, and the cross-scalar environmental, social, political, economic, and institutional processes that underpin them. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Burnham, M; Ma, Z

Multi-Scalar Pathways to Smallholder Adaptation

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.08.005

Deltas are experiencing profound demographic, economic and land use changes and human-induced catchment and climate change. Bangladesh exemplifies these difficulties through multiple climate risks including subsidence/sea-level rise, temperature rise, and changing precipitation patterns, as well as changing management of the Ganges and Brahmaputra catchments. There is a growing population and economy driving numerous more local changes, while dense rural population and poverty remain significant. Identifying appropriate policy and planning responses is extremely difficult in these circumstances. This paper adopts a participatory scenario development process incorporating both socio-economic and biophysical elements across multiple scales and sectors as part of an integrated assessment of ecosystem services and livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh. Rather than simply downscale global perspectives, the analysis was driven by a large and diverse stakeholder group who met with the researchers over four years as the assessment was designed, implemented and applied. There were four main stages: (A) establish meta-framework for the analysis; (B) develop qualitative scenarios of key trends; (C) translate these scenarios into quantitative form for the integrated assessment model analysis; and (D) a review of the model results, which raises new stakeholder insights (e.g., preferred adaptation andpolicy responses) and questions. Step D can be repeated leading to an iterative learning loop cycle, and the process can potentially be ongoing. The strong and structured process of stakeholder engagement gave strong local ownership of the scenarios and the wider process. This process can be generalised for widespread application across socio-ecological systems following the same four-stage approach. It demands sustained engagement with stakeholders and hence needs to be linked to a long-term research process. However, it facilitates a more credible foundation for planning especially where there are multiple interacting factors. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Allan, A; Barbour, E; Nicholls, RJ; Hutton, C; Lim, M; Salehin, M; Rahman, MM

Developing socio-ecological scenarios: A participatory process for engaging stakeholders

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150512

Purpose - No climate change, no climate refugees. On the basis of this theme, this paper aims to propose a method for undertaking the responsibility for climate refugees literally uprooted by liable climate polluting countries. It also considers the historical past, culture, geopolitics, imposed wars, economic oppression and fragile governance to understand the holistic scenario of vulnerability to climate change. Design/methodology/approach - This paper is organized around three distinct aspects of dealing with extreme climatic events-vulnerability as part of making the preparedness and response process fragile (past), climate change as a hazard driver (present) and rehabilitating the climate refugees (future). Bangladesh is used as an example that represents a top victim country to climatic extreme events from many countries with similar baseline characteristics. The top 20 countries accounting for approximately 82 per cent of the total global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are considered for model development by analysing the parameters-per capita CO2 emissions, ecological footprint, gross national income and human development index. Findings - Results suggest that under present circumstances, Australia and the USA each should take responsibility of 10 per cent each of the overall global share of climate refugees, followed by Canada and Saudi Arabia (9 per cent each), South Korea (7 per cent) and Russia, Germany and Japan (6 per cent each). As there is no international convention for protecting climate refugees yet, the victims either end up in detention camps or are refused shelter in safer places or countries. There is a dire need to address the climate refugee crisis as these people face greater political risks. Originality/value - This paper provides a critical overview of accommodating the climate refugees (those who have no means for bouncing back) by the liable countries. It proposes an innovative method by considering the status of climate pollution, resource consumption, economy and human development rankings to address the problem by bringing humanitarian justice to the ultimate climate refugees.

Ahmed, B

Who takes responsibility for the climate refugees?

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2016-0149

BackgroundThe effects of food insecurity linked to climate change will be exacerbated in subsistence communities that are dependent upon food systems for their livelihoods and sustenance. Place-and community-based forms of surveillance are important for growing an equitable evidence base that integrates climate, food, and health information as well as informs our understanding of how climate change impacts health through local and Indigenous subsistence food systems.MethodsWe present a case-study from southwestern Uganda with Batwa and Bakiga subsistence communities in Kanungu District. We conducted 22 key informant interviews to map what forms of monitoring and knowledge exist about health and subsistence food systems as they relate to seasonal variability. A participatory mapping exercise accompanied key informant interviews to identify who holds knowledge about health and subsistence food systems. Social network theory and analysis methods were used to explore how information flows between knowledge holders as well as the power and agency that is involved in knowledge production and exchange processes.ResultsThis research maps existing networks of trusted relationships that are already used for integrating diverse knowledges, information, and administrative action. Narratives reveal inventories of ongoing and repeated cycles of observations, interpretations, evaluations, and adjustments that make up existing health and subsistence food monitoring and response. These networks of local health and subsistence food systems were not supported by distinct systems of climate and meteorological information. Our findings demonstrate how integrating surveillance systems is not just about what types of information we monitor, but also who and how knowledges are connected through existing networks of monitoring and response.ConclusionApplying conventional approaches to surveillance, without deliberate consideration of the broader contextual and relational processes, can lead to the re-marginalization of peoples and the reproduction of inequalities in power between groups of people. We anticipate that our findings can be used to inform the initiation of a place-based integrated climate-food-health surveillance system in Kanungu District as well as other contexts with a rich diversity of knowledges and existing forms of monitoring and response.

van Bavel, B; Ford, LB; King, R; Lwasa, S; Namanya, D; Twesigomwe, S; Elsey, H; Harper, SL

Integrating climate in Ugandan health and subsistence food systems: where diverse knowledges meet

Bmc Public Health

https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-09914-9

Several climate-smart agriculture (CSA) interventions are promoted by public, private and civil societies in India. However, there is a considerable variation among them. Therefore, to understand the different CSA interventions supported and prioritised by the public and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) as well as their impacts at the farmer level, a case study was undertaken in Anantapur district, as it is highly vulnerable to climate change risks due to the increase in temperature, delayed monsoon, erratic rainfall and frequent occurrence of droughts. A case study research method was followed to assess the CSA interventions promoted by Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVK), Department of Agriculture, Accion and Adarsha. The findings showed that KVK has prioritised its extension advisory services towards the promotion of field crop (e.g. groundnut)-based CSA. The extension services of NGO-Accion was aimed at promoting horticulture, and Adarsha was prioritised promoting millet-based CSA interventions. Whereas the CSA priority of the department of agriculture was driven by the prevailing zero-budget natural farming project. However, interventions of KVK and NGOs were implemented on a limited scale. Therefore, the recommendations that emerged from the study will help the stakeholders to ensure convergence and foster synergy in implementing CSA interventions at scale. Some challenges faced during the research study were difficulties in the identification of the right stakeholders who were promoting CSA, also their technologies and services related to CSA. However, after a thorough discussion with the extension officers of Anantapur district, the stakeholders were identified and their CSA interventions were ascertained through focus group discussions and secondary data reviewed from magazines and other publications. Furthermore, the present study focused only on the CSA interventions promoted by two public sectors and two NGOs, and there is a wider scope for identifying more stakeholders, e.g. private sector, FPOs and entrepreneurs, and assessing their extent of involvement in the promotion of CSA and prioritisation.

Vincent, A; Balasubramani, N

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) and extension advisory service (EAS) stakeholders' prioritisation: a case study of Anantapur district, Andhra Pradesh, India

Journal Of Water And Climate Change

https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.329

Tribal farmers are most vulnerable to climate variability and change (CVC) due to their climate sensitive livelihoods and lack of resources to afford the adaptation measures. In order to formulate appropriate programs and policies addressing climate change, it is essential to understand their adaptive capacity (AC). This study analyzed the level of adaptive capacity (AC) of tribal dairy farmers' households of Himachal Pradesh, part of western Himalayan region (one of the fifteen agro-climatic zones in India), and confronting the factors that cause the differences in adaptive capacity (AC). Based on the previous studies, adaptive capacity of each household was determined by developing a composite adaptive capacity index by using method of principal component analysis (PCA) with the help of statistical software SPSSv21. Adaptive capacity index (ACI) was developed underlying the definition of adaptive capacity (AC) as put forward by IPCC (2007), consisting of five index components namely human capital, physical capital, financial capital, social capital and natural capital. Results showed that variations in adaptive capacity index were caused by differences in human capital, physical and financial capital. Tribal households that scored low in these three indicators had lower adaptive capacity (AC). Adaptive capacity index (ACI) indicated that 31.88 percent of sampled household have low level of adaptive capacity with wide variation in index score of components of adaptive capacity across the villages and households, which were highly vulnerable to climate variability and change (CVC). Naurangabad village of Sirmaur district have lowest score (0.70 +/- 0.03) of Adaptive capacity index (ACI) among the entire selected villages. To cope up the adverse climatic conditions and for the sustenance of dairy farming in the study area, the appropriate climate resilient policies will be required for incentivizing the livelihoods infrastructure, promotion of grass root level innovations and to increase adaptive capacity of tribal dairy farmers by using locally available resources.

Rai, CK; Sankhala, G; Lal, SP; Singh, K

Mapping adaptive capacity of tribal dairy farmers to climate variability and change: A study of western Himalayan region

Indian Journal Of Dairy Science

https://doi.org/10.33785/IJDS.2019.v72i06.013

As the world's population grows to a projected 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low-lying areas exposed to coastal hazards is projected to increase. Critical infrastructure and valuable assets continue to be placed in vulnerable areas, and in recent years, millions of people have been displaced by natural hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm's way. Risks related to natural hazards are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards, the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system and its exposure to such hazards. Moreover, these risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including poorly planned urban development, income inequality, and poverty. This study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (Self Organizing Maps and K-Means) and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) on a comparative scale. The proposed method meets multiple objectives, including the identification of hotspots and key drivers of coastal risk, and the ability to process large-volume multidimensional and multivariate datasets, effectively reducing sixteen variables related to coastal hazards, geographic exposure, and socioeconomic vulnerability, into a single index. Our results demonstrate that in LAC, more than 500,000 people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems) and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. Hotspot locations of coastal risk, identified by the proposed Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI), contain more than 300,00 people and include: El Oro, Ecuador; Sinaloa, Mexico; Usulutan, El Salvador; and Chiapas, Mexico. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only focus on developing coastal defenses, but also on improving practices and policies related to urban development, agricultural land use, and conservation, as well as ameliorating socioeconomic conditions.

Calil, J; Reguero, BG; Zamora, AR; Losada, IJ; Méndez, FJ

Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI): A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0187011

The coastal zone of Bangladesh is suffering from a wide range of climate change-driven hazards. Limited attention has been given to these zones' food security assessment. Therefore, this study aims to assess the status of food security and its determinants among different groups of Bangladeshi coastal households. It also identifies their livelihood risks and coping strategies during stressed situations. Data were collected from 1350 households from coastal districts through a questionnaire survey. Food security was calculated and compared with the recommended average (2400 kcal/capita/day). A binary logit model was used to identify the determinants of food security among rural coastal households. Livelihood risks and coping mechanisms were recorded through open-ended questions. The findings of this study revealed that although on average, sampled households were food secure (2753 kcal/capita/day), 81% of landless households and 72% of marginal landholders within the sample appeared food insecure. Among various food items, rice supplied the greatest total daily calorie intake (1841.47 kcal), second was the edible oil (172.27 kcal). The regression model revealed that farm size, farm income, off-farm income, and crop production had positive impacts on households' food security. Floods, salinity, heavy rainfall, and reduction of land productivity were high risks to the large farm households, while heavy rainfall, floods, and salinity were high risks to the landless farm households. To cope with these risks, the majority of large farm households used their savings and sold livestock and poultry as coping strategies. The landless and marginal farmers were mostly helped by nongovernmental and government-run organizations, moved elsewhere to find work, sold their labor, and were involved in fishing. It was concluded that different groups of farmers face different challenges. Our findings indicate that in order to protect landless and marginal farmers, government should implement policies aimed at increasing crop production by means of prioritizing saline-tolerant crop varieties and the creation of more job opportunities.

Panezai, S; Moniruzzaman; Saqib, SE; Rahman, MS; Ferdous, Z; Asghar, S; Ullah, A; Ali, N

Rural households' food security and its determinants in coastal regions of Bangladesh

Natural Resources Forum

https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-8947.12250

Agricultural systems are highly sensitive to climate change. Most studies focus on the effect of heat and water availability on crop yields, but little is known about the impact of changes in intra-seasonal climate variability (particularly challenging in mountain regions). Also, beyond the effect on crop yields-mostly focused on single cropping systems and major world crops-little analysis has been done on more complex, diversified and low-input cropping systems like those prevalent in the Andean region. This study investigates whether Andean farmers respond to increasing climate variability by increasing crop diversity (measured by intercropping and crop diversification indices) and by switching to crops which better tolerate heterogeneous environmental conditions. Since previous studies show that crop diversification fosters resilience of agricultural systems, decreasing crop portfolio diversity in an increasingly variable environment may challenge farms sustainability. The data used in the analysis combines district-level socio-economic information from two agrarian censuses (1994 and 2012) with district-level climate estimates of mean temperature, temperature range and precipitation (averages for periods 1964-1994 and 1982-2012). Based on fixed effects models that allow for sub-region parameter heterogeneity, I find that an increase in intra-seasonal climate variability leads farmers in colder areas (<11 degrees C during the growing season) to concentrate their portfolio into more tolerant crops and reduce intercropping (a practice potentially efficient at controlling pest and disease). This effect is especially strong in the Southern region (more indigenous, less integrated to markets). These results complement previous studies by providing robust and regionally representative evidence on small-farmers' nonlinear response to climate variability. Furthermore, given that Andean farmers received little-to-no help to adapt to climate change during the period under analysis, this study informs about farmers' autonomous adaptation to climate changes and raises concern on current adaptation responses that may hamper agricultural system's sustainability in the face of climate change. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ponce, C

Intra-seasonal climate variability and crop diversification strategies in the Peruvian Andes: A word of caution on the sustainability of adaptation to climate change

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104740

The climate change impacts of South Asia (SA) are inextricably linked with increased monsoon variability and a clearly deteriorating trend with more frequent deficit monsoons. One of the most climate-vulnerable nations in the eastern and central Indo-Gangetic Basin is Bangladesh. There have been numerous studies on the effects of climate change in Bangladesh; however, most of them tended to just look at a small fraction of the impact elements or were climatic projections without accounting for the effects on agriculture. Additionally, simulation studies using the CERES-Rice and CERES-Wheat models were conducted for rice and wheat to evaluate the effects of climate change on Bangladeshi agriculture. However, up to now, Bangladesh has not implemented farming system ideas by integrating cropping systems with other income-generating activities. This study was conducted as part of the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) regional evaluations using the protocols and integrated assessment processes of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). It was also done to calibrate crop models (APSIM and DSSAT) using rice and wheat. To assist policymakers in creating national and regional plans for anticipated future agricultural systems, our work on the integrated evaluation of climate change impacts on agricultural systems produced realistic predictions. The outcome of this research prescribes a holistic assessment of climate change on future production systems by including all the relevant enterprises in the agriculture sector. The findings of the study suggested two major strategies to minimize the yield and increase the profitability in a rice-wheat cropping system. Using a short-term HYV (High Yielding Variety) of rice can shift the sowing time of wheat by 7 days in advance compared to the traditional sowing days of mid-November. In addition, increasing the irrigation amount by 50 mm for wheat showed a better yield by 1.5-32.2% in different scenarios. These climate change adaptation measures could increase the per capita income by as high as 3.6% on the farm level.

Chawdhery, MRA; Al-Mueed, M; Wazed, MA; Emran, SA; Chowdhury, MAH; Hussain, SG

Climate Change Impacts Assessment Using Crop Simulation Model Intercomparison Approach in Northern Indo-Gangetic Basin of Bangladesh

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192315829

The observed increase of direct flood damage over the last decades may be caused by changes in the meteorological drivers of floods, or by changing land-use patterns and socio-economic developments. It is still widely unknown to which extent these factors will contribute to future flood risk changes. We survey the change of flood risk in terms of expected annual damage for residential buildings in the lower part of the Mulde River basin (Vereinigte Mulde) between 1990 and 2020 in 10-yr time steps based on measurements and model projections. For this purpose we consider the complete risk chain from climate impact via hydrological and hydraulic modelling to damage and risk estimation. We analyse what drives the changes in flood risk and quantify the contributions of these drivers: flood hazard change due to climate change, land-use change and changes in building values. We estimate flood risk and building losses based on constant values and based on effective (inflation adjusted) values separately. For constant values, estimated building losses for the most extreme inundation scenario amount to more than 360 million (sic) for all time steps. Based on effective values, damage estimates for the same inundation scenario decrease from 478 million (sic) in 1990 to 361 million (sic) in 2000 and 348 million (sic) in 2020 (maximum land-use scenario). Using constant values, flood risk is 111% (effective values: 146 %) of the 2000 estimate in 1990 and 121% (effective values: 115 %) of the 2000 estimate for the maximum land-use scenario in 2020. The quantification of driver contributions reveals that land-use change in the form of urban sprawl in endangered areas is the main driver of flood risk in the study area. Climate induced flood hazard change is important but not a dominant factor of risk change in the study area. With the historical exception of the economic effects in Eastern Germany following the German reunification, value developments only have minor influence on the development of flood risk.

Elmer, F; Hoymann, J; Düthmann, D; Vorogushyn, S; Kreibich, H

Drivers of flood risk change in residential areas

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1641-2012

Agricultural drought is a complex phenomenon with numerous consequences and negative implications for agriculture and food systems. The Sahel is frequently affected by severe droughts, leading to significant losses in agricultural yields. Consequently, assessing vulnerability to agricultural drought is essential for strengthening early warning systems. The aim of this study is to develop a new multivariate agricultural drought vulnerability index (MADVI) that combines static and dynamic factors extracted from satellite data. First, pixel temporal regression from 1981 to 2021 was applied to climatic and biophysical covariates to determine the gradients of trend magnitudes. Second, principal component analysis was applied to groups of factors that indicate the same type of vulnerability to configure the basic equation of vulnerability to agricultural drought. Then, random forest (RF), K-nearest neighbours (KNN), support vector machine (SVM) and naive Bayes (NB) were used to predict drought vulnerability classes using the 28 factors as inputs and 708 pts of randomly distributed class labels. The results showed statistical agreement between the predicted MADVI spatial variability and the reference model (R=0.86 for RF) and its statistical relationships with the vulnerability subcomponents, with an R=0.73 with exposure to climate risk, R=0.64 with the socioeconomic sensitivity index, R=0.6 with the biophysical sensitivity index and a relatively weak correlation (R=0.21) with the physiographic sensitivity index. The overall vulnerability situation in the watershed is 21.8% extreme, 10% very high, 16.8% high, 27.7% moderate, 22.2% low and 1.5% relatively low considering the cartographic results of the predicted vulnerability classes with SVM having the best performance (accuracy=0.96, Kappa=0.95). The study is the first approach that uses the gradients of magnitudes of satellite covariate anomaly trends in multivariate modelling of vulnerability to agricultural drought. It can be easily scaled up across the Sahel region to improve early warning measures related to the impacts of agricultural drought.

Houmma, IH; El Mansouri, L; Gadal, S; Faouzi, E; Toure, AA; Garba, M; Imani, Y; El-Ayachi, M; Hadria, R

Drought vulnerability of central Sahel agrosystems: a modelling-approach based on magnitudes of changes and machine learning techniques

International Journal Of Remote Sensing

https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2023.2234094

Flood impacts and social vulnerability are substantial threats for the sustainable development of the developing world. This study focuses on some particular points of flood impacts and the local concept towards existing management capacity. Additionally, significant focus was given to gender roles and how they may impact measures that aim towards reducing flood risks. Both qualitative and quantitative techniques were applied during the research, in order to understand the perception of the char-land communities on natural hazards, social crisis, resource accessibility, climatic uncertainty and the gender role to cope with flood consequences. Concurrently the questionnaire survey and focus group discussion (FGD) was performed among the local people. This study revealed that majority of the people was directly threatened by the destructive consequences of flood hazards, which in turn, badly influenced the household economies, alongside its education, security and infrastructural prospects. Some decades ago, the application of indigenous techniques was deemed successful as the communities managed to effectively reduce the risk involved with potential floods. However, now the solution is no longer clear as it is disturbed by external climate components. Results showed the vulnerability of the local communities in terms of knowledge, resource access, communication system, proper information dissemination, health, and livelihood. The gender variability is believed to have significant value in terms of flood disaster risk reduction, household development, and family caring activities. Principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) has clearly identified the gender role in the char-land community. The women's activities are profoundly focused in terms of the flood risk management, and the families generally do not properly appreciate the value of women and their role. However, the problem-based Participatory Action to Future Skill Management (PFM) for flood risk reduction in the char-land area can ensure to knowledge empowerment and capacity builds up, to achieve community resilience and sustainability in adverse climate conditions. The government should take appropriate actions in order to figure out the basic problem, and should issue focused policy practices among the char-land communities to bring them in sustainable trends.

Rakib, MA; Islam, S; Nikolaos, I; Bodrud-Doza, M; Bhuiyan, MAH

Flood vulnerability, local perception and gender role judgment using multivariate analysis: A problem-based participatory action to Future Skill Management to cope with flood impacts

Weather And Climate Extremes

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.10.002