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Both human activities and climate change have changed landscapes significantly, especially in coastal areas. Sea level rise and land subsidence foster tidal floods and permanent inundations, thus changing and limiting land use. Though many countries, including Indonesia, are aware of these phenomena, the legal status of this permanently inundated land remains unclear. Indonesia refers to this land legally as obliterated land. This qualification makes former landowners uncertain, as it does not recognize their previous land rights, and creates disputes during land acquisition. In view of policy pressures to develop large-scale projects, the government often fails to include obliterated land legally during land acquisition processes for these projects. This causes unfair and disputed compensation for those former landowners. Current scientific discourses do not yet address this legal quandary. This study therefore has the following three aims: (1) to describe the legal, institutional and procedural contradictions related to obliterated land; (2) to assess the validity of right of the owners whose land parcels are permanently inundated; and (3) to formulate a responsible and tenure responsive policy to deal with obliterated land. We investigate these questions for the construction of a toll road and sea embankment in Kecamatan Sayung, Kabupaten Demak involving obliterated land. We reviewed policies, regulations and documentations related to coastal land and disaster management, and the implementation of land acquisition. We used geospatial data to visualize the ways in which and locations where landscapes, land parcels and land right changed. We determined that legal uncertainty leads to policy inconsistencies in handling obliterated land, specifically during land acquisition. Additionally, former landowners suffer from the legal gaps to establish clarity of land tenure, which prevents them from receiving any compensation. We suggest a law revision that considers the social-historical aspects of land tenure when defining obliterated land. The law should also provide for a fairer and more just compensation for former landowners during land acquisition processes.

Pinuji, S; de Vries, WT; Rineksi, TW; Wahyuni, W

Is Obliterated Land Still Land? Tenure Security and Climate Change in Indonesia

Land

https://doi.org/10.3390/land12020478

Perhaps no country in the world is as vulnerable on so many fronts to climate change as India. With 7000 kilometers of coastline, the vast Himalayan glaciers, and nearly 70 million hectares of forests, India is especially vulnerable to warmer temperatures, erratic precipitation, higher seas, and swifter storms. Then there are India's cities, where all of these trends threaten public health and safety on a grand scale-portending heat waves, drought, thicker smog, coastal storms, and blown-out sewers. Yet, my travels on the subcontinent revealed glints of hope, cities thrown on the ropes by climate change, but effectively fighting back. One is Surat-India's bustling, no-nonsense city, near the Arabian Sea. There I spoke with city officials, business leaders, and public health experts. I perused the aeration basins of a water treatment plant, climbed the floodgates of a major river embankment, and threaded my way through a township built to replace a flood-prone slum. I even toured a diamond-polishing facility that turns out to be very relevant to this climate story. In sum, Surat is making impressive progress that other cities in the developing world can surely learn from. While the city seems poised for prosperity, its fortune depends on its ability to improve flood control, protect public health, and expand access to safe housing. Success in Surat requires disaster justice. Before entering the city, we will first examine the threat posed by climate change in the Global South and its relationship to disaster, along the way sorting out a series of justice-oriented concerns related to climate, disaster, and the environment. Because disaster justice emphasizes the role of unequal vulnerabilities among social groups, we will next consider the relationship between such social vulnerabilities and the concept of justice. We will see what other cities in the world might learn from India's Diamond Capital.

Verchick, RRM

Diamond in the rough: Pursuing disaster justice in Surat, India

Environment And Planning E-Nature And Space

https://doi.org/10.1177/2514848618797338

Australia's vulnerability to climate variability and change has been highlighted by the recent drought (i.e. the Big Dry or Millennium Drought), and also recent flooding across much of eastern Australia during 2011 and 2012. There is also the possibility that the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts may increase due to anthropogenic climate change, stressing the need for robust drought adaptation strategies. This study investigates the socio-economic impacts of drought, past and present drought adaptation measures, and the future adaptation strategies required to deal with projected impacts of climate change. The qualitative analysis presented records the actual experiences of drought and other climatic extremes and helps advance knowledge of how best to respond and adapt to such conditions, and how this might vary between different locations, sectors and communities. It was found that more effort is needed to address the changing environment and climate, by shifting from notions of 'drought-as-crisis' towards acknowledging the variable availability of water and that multi-year droughts should not be unexpected, and may even become more frequent. Action should also be taken to revalue the farming enterprise as critical to our environmental, economic and cultural well-being and there was also strong consensus that the value of water should be recognised in a more meaningful way (i.e. not just in economic terms). Finally, across the diverse stakeholders involved in the research, one point was consistently reiterated: that 'it's not just drought'. Exacerbating the issues of climate impacts on water security and supply is the complexity of the agriculture industry, global economics (in particular global markets and the recent/ongoing global financial crisis), and demographic changes (decreasing and ageing populations) which are currently occurring across most rural communities. The social and economic issues facing rural communities are not just a product of drought or climate change - to understand them as such would underestimate the extent of the problems and inhibit the ability to coordinate the holistic, cross-agency approach needed for successful climate change adaptation in rural communities. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kiem, AS; Austin, EK

Drought and the future of rural communities: Opportunities and challenges for climate change adaptation in regional Victoria, Australia

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.06.003

Climate extreme events have significant impacts on the livelihoods of smallholder women farmers. The aim of the present study is to investigate the coping and adaptation measures that women farmers use to respond to specific climate extreme events. The data for the study comes from 187 smallholder women farmers from Upper West region of Ghana. The study employed the Bivariate Probit model in the empirical analysis. The results revealed that membership of farmer-based organizations and the use of climate information were the key factors which influenced women farmers' coping strategies against climate extreme events. Women farmers' adaptation measures were mainly influenced by access to credit. The key policy variable that influenced both coping and adaptation measures of women farmers was access to agricultural extension services. The study recommends that policy should focus on the promotion of specific coping and adaptation interventions against climate extreme events among women farmers. Policy should create enabling environment for the establishments of farmer-based organizations, increase women farmers' contact with women agricultural extension officers and remove institutional barriers that impede access to credit and the use of climate information.Climate extreme events have significant impacts on the livelihoods of smallholder women farmers. The aim of the present study is to investigate the coping and adaptation measures that women farmers use to respond to specific climate extreme events. The data for the study comes from 187 smallholder women farmers from Upper West region of Ghana. The study employed the Bivariate Probit model in the empirical analysis. The results revealed that membership of farmer-based organizations and the use of climate information were the key factors which influenced women farmers' coping strategies against climate extreme events. Women farmers' adaptation measures were mainly influenced by access to credit. The key policy variable that influenced both coping and adaptation measures of women farmers was access to agricultural extension services. The study recommends that policy should focus on the promotion of specific coping and adaptation interventions against climate extreme events among women farmers. Policy should create enabling environment for the establishments of farmer-based organizations, increase women farmers' contact with women agricultural extension officers and remove institutional barriers that impede access to credit and the use of climate information.

Yiridomoh, GY; Owusu, V

Do women farmers cope or adapt to strategies in response to climate extreme events? Evidence from rural Ghana

Climate And Development

https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2021.1971943

Climate risks, emerging threats to humanity, increase the level of disaster in many ways. A comprehensive understanding of climate risks and their impacts is a pre-requisite for developing suitable adaptation strategies toward sustainable development. This paper assessed the socio-economic vulnerability based on sustainable development goals (SDG) in the state of Tamil Nadu in the context of climate risks to comprehend the links between climate risks and the physical setting of Tamil Nadu, along with its capability to adapt. An indicator-based methodology of vulnerability assessment as per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was adopted to understand the links between the sensitivity of the state and its ability to cope and adapt. The climate extremities, which cause risks, were determined based on India Meteorological Department (IMD) norms. The indicators which directly or indirectly label specific/integrated goals of SDG were used as sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators. Data from each district for all identified indicators were collected from authentic sources and categorized into four components: natural, social, economic, and infrastructure. The indicators were analyzed and weights were assigned to the indicators using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The district-wise vulnerability indices were calculated and categorized as natural vulnerability index (NVI), social vulnerability index (SVI), economic vulnerability index (EVI), infrastructure vulnerability index (IVI), and overall cumulative vulnerability index (CVI). The study revealed the significant contributing indicators of risk and the vulnerable districts of Tamil Nadu. Ariyalur was identified as the most vulnerable district due to its high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity to climate risks. The other top vulnerable districts were Nagapattinam, Ramanathapuram, Thiruvarur, Thiruvallur, Thanjavur, Perambalur, Pudukottai, and Thiruvannamalai. The outcome of the study may be deliberated as an indicator of alarming socio-economic and infrastructural conditions of the districts and may help planners to prioritize their actions toward climate resilience.

Jeganathan, A; Andimuthu, R; Kandasamy, P

Climate risks and socio-economic vulnerability in Tamil Nadu, India

Theoretical And Applied Climatology

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03595-z

Flood risk is increasing across the world due to climate change and socio-economic development, calling for a shift from traditional protection and post-event activism towards a forward-looking, risk-aware, and more holistic resilience approach. The national legal system of countries can play an important role in creating and encouraging such a shift. In this study, we explore the potentials and shortcomings of national laws in managing flood risk and increasing flood resilience in the context of climate change. We analyze 139 laws from 33 countries collected from the Climate Change Laws of the World and Disaster Law databases and underpin this with case studies to gain insights on the interplay between national laws and resilience processes. We find: (1) a shift in flood laws from focusing on flooding as a natural resource and water resource management issue towards a broader consideration of disaster risk management (DRM) and climate adaptation policy; (2) a significant lack of climate change recognition in laws regulating decisions and actions for future flood risks, especially in DRM; (3) a prevailing focus on response and recovery strategies and a lack of recognition of risk reduction strategies and proactive flood risk governance approaches; and (4) little recognition of natural capital (comparing to physical capital) and its role in increasing flood resilience. Key policy insights Flood-related laws around the world lack consideration of future risks. Disaster risk management and climate change are often considered as separate issues in national laws, which can lead to gaps in institutional ownership, responsibilities, and allocated budgets. Flood-related laws are mainly created after major events, most of which are focused on reactive strategies (i.e. response and recovery). Laws can facilitate the shift from post-event response to anticipatory actions by encouraging proactive flood risk management (FRM) activities (i.e. risk reduction). Nature-based solutions often remain unrecognized in national laws due to the dominant focus on hard engineering measures. FRM should be treated as a holistic concept in laws: ensuring all the necessary human, social, physical, natural and financial systems are in place to support it.

Mehryar, S; Surminski, S

National laws for enhancing flood resilience in the context of climate change: potential and shortcomings

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1808439

Nature Based Solutions (NBS), including Natural Flood Management (NFM) schemes are becoming an important component of many governmental and organisation responses to increases in flood and aridity risk. NFM structures may take multiple forms to slow, store, disconnect and filter distributed overland flow pathways within a catchment that coalesce to generate a flood-wave downstream and runoff rather than infiltrate gmundwaters. To date few studies have conducted observations pre- and post-installation monitoring at river reach-scales, despite widespread and frequent installation, to investigate the efficacy of willowed engineered log jams (WELJs) interventions used in abating flood-flows, through backing-up flood-pulses with consequent reductions in downstream discharges. This paper examines the efficiency, before and after installation of five 1 m high WELJs incorporating 1,000 Bay willow (Sa!ix pentandra) saplings supporting the dead horizontal timber, across a total of 130 linear metres spanning the floodplain of a decommissioned reservoir. One rain gauge, two fixed point time-lapse wildlife cameras and three water level stations were installed: upstream-of, within, and downstream-of all WELJs. The findings demonstrate a substantial reduction is achieved for most events, with an average of 27.3% reduction in peak discharge being achieved post-installation. The time to peak is little impacted, however there is demonstrable evidence of a longer and higher recessional limb to the events. These findings quantify for the first time the role that WELJs can play in a move towards re-naturalisation of water level regimes, with lower peak water flows achieved, and waters released from the river-reach more slowly. Furthermore, baseflow during dry periods is also elevated by 27.1%, offering greater resilience to dry periods and droughts. Consequently, over the river-reach scale (0-130 m), WELJs play an important role in alleviating flood and drought risk through suppressing flood peaks and increasing baseflow during low flows; steps towards improved hydro-morphological quality overall.

Norbury, M; Phillips, H; Macdonald, N; Brown, D; Boothroyd, R; Wilson, C; Quinn, P; Shaw, D

Quantifying the hydrological implications of pre- and post-installation willowed engineered log jams in the Pennine Uplands, NW England

Journal Of Hydrology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126855

Unlike climate change mitigation, adaptation to climate change does not as much suffer from the fundamental global public good problem - at least at the country-level - since it is in the self-interest of each individual country to adapt. However, the observed level of adaptation is insufficient from an economic perspective. We address this puzzle by adding a psychological perspective to explain actors' behaviour. Based on existing meta-analytic evidence we discuss micro- (i.e. individual-), meso- (i.e. group-) and macro- (i.e. society-) level factors that may contribute to more engagement in adaptation and provide recommendations on how to address them. The results show that the strongest predictors of individual adaptation behaviour are people's beliefs whether adaptive actions will be effective in protecting them from climate-related hazards (outcome expectancy), the degree to which people believe that they are able to engage in adaptive actions (self-efficacy) and their emotional reaction to climate change. Equally strong on a meso-level are behavioural norms and cultural aspects on a macro-level. We recommend that decision-makers create more transparency about the cause-effect chain between adaptation activity and desired adaptation effects to strengthen individuals' sense of efficacy. Furthermore, inducing reflection on social norms through communicative interventions may contribute to motivate adaptive actions by individuals and organisations. Key policy insights Psychological factors play an important but underestimated role in explaining adaptation behaviour. If people believe that they can address the risks of climate-related hazards they will show stronger adaptation behaviour. This insight can be used to incentivise more investments in adaptation. Social norms and cultural values are linked to adaptation behaviour. Public communication campaigns and other policy interventions can help to change social norms, and they should be tailored to the cultural values of societies. The influence of social norms and cultural values can be stronger than individual-level variables such as beliefs and preferences. People underestimate the extent to which others are willing to contribute to society, in particular in societies scoring high on individualism and masculinity. This can prevent people from investing in adaptation.

Bechtoldt, MN; Götmann, A; Moslener, U; Pauw, WP

Addressing the climate change adaptation puzzle: a psychological science perspective

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1807897

Climate change is increasingly challenging the ability of millions of people to sustain livelihoods as the places where they live become uninhabitable. The relocation of populations as individuals, households, and communities within countries and across international borders demonstrates the complexity of climate change impacts. Looking at the literature, some researchers argue that relocation caused by climate change can be an effective strategy to adapt to localized changes, whereas others argue that the movement away from ones' homeland is more neatly captured in the climate change lexicon as 'loss and damage'. We argue here that the relocation of people as a result of the impacts of climate change can be both adaptation and loss and damage. Drawing on examples from Alaska and Kiribati, we show that dividing this issue between the two concepts is unhelpful in resolving key issues around the types of appropriate support for these transitions to sustain and protect livelihoods and to open up possibilities for self-determined futures. Policy Relevance Climate-induced relocation poses a significant challenge for the populations affected as well as the government agencies tasked with providing technical assistance and funding. At present, policies and institutional frameworks have not yet been developed to accommodate these challenges, despite the urgent need to do so. When the relocation of populations can be planned, participatory, and people centred, then it can be an adaptation strategy that will protect people from the permanent loss of land and livelihoods. If these movements are decided, driven, managed, and undertaken by those affected, then there is the potential for the relocation to also be a transformative opportunity for people to respond to the impacts of climate change, and sustain their livelihoods and possibly even improve certain livelihood outcomes. However, these relocations also cause significant loss and damage. The extent of the loss and damage will partly depend on the ability to have these relocations planned and ensure that human rights protections are embedded in institutional frameworks. The article shares a series of lessons and learnings that are of policy relevance at a variety of scales.

McNamara, KE; Bronen, R; Fernando, N; Klepp, S

The complex decision-making of climate-induced relocation: adaptation and loss and damage

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1248886

Ecological vulnerability, as an important evaluation method reflecting regional ecological status and the degree of stability, is the key content in global change and sustainable development. Most studies mainly focus on changes of ecological vulnerability concerning the temporal trend, but rarely take arid and semi-arid areas into consideration to explore the spatial heterogeneity of the ecological vulnerability index (EVI) there. In this study, we selected the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region on the Loess Plateau of China, a typical arid and semi-arid area, as a case to investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the EVI every five years, from 1990 to 2015. Based on remote sensing data, meteorological data, and economic statistical data, this study first evaluated the temporalspatial change of ecological vulnerability in the study area by Geo-information Tupu. Further, we explored the spatial heterogeneity of the ecological vulnerability using Getis-Ord Gi*. Results show that: (1) the regions with high ecological vulnerability are mainly concentrated in the north of the study area, which has high levels of economic growth, while the regions with low ecological vulnerability are mainly distributed in the relatively poor regions in the south of the study area. (2) From 1990 to 2015, ecological vulnerability showed an increasing trend in the study area. Additionally, there is significant transformation between different grades of the EVI, where the area of transformation between a slight vulnerability level and a light vulnerability level accounts for 41.56% of the transformation area. (3) Hot-spot areas of the EVI are mainly concentrated in the north of the study area, and cold-spot areas are mainly concentrated in the center and south of the study area. Spatial heterogeneity of ecological vulnerability is significant in the central and southern areas but insignificant in the north of the study area. (4) The grassland area is the main driving factor of the change in ecological vulnerability, which is also affected by both arid and semi-arid climates and ecological projects. This study can provide theoretical references for sustainable development to present feasible suggestions on protection measures and management modes in arid and semi-arid areas.

Li, R; Han, R; Yu, QR; Qi, S; Guo, L

Spatial Heterogeneous of Ecological Vulnerability in Arid and Semi-Arid Area: A Case of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114401

In many world cities, flood incidences are on the increase due to climate change and increasing urbanization. Relying on structural flood control measures is becoming unsustainable, and new approaches revolving around improved land use planning, relocation, proofing, forecasting, warning and insurance are being advocated. These new measures require increasing understanding of the socioeconomic, cultural and political drivers that influence city dwellers' flood risks perception and adaptation. Unfortunately, public perception of flood risk and flood risk information is often overlooked when developing flood risk management plans. For Many cities, not much is known about peoples' flood risk awareness and perception, how much resilient they are, what adaptive capacities they possess and what socioeconomic, cultural and political drivers influence their risk perception and adaptive capacities. This was investigated in Katsina city of Nigeria through a questionnaire survey of 290 households, complemented with field observations and interviews. Results showed that the respondents in general have a fairly good perception of the nature, causes and consequences of flooding. However, flood-conveying structures were inadequate, with the few in most cases largely being used as waste-disposal sites. There was inadequate coordination between institutional stakeholders responsible for physical planning, waste and emergency management in the area. The respondents undertake some small-scale, ineffectively coordinated household-level proactive actions to minimize flood impacts, but no community-level flood early warning system exists. These create high flood-risks in the area and limit the flood resilience. Socio-cultural and income factors were the main determinants of flood adaptation, as the larger households with heads that are older and richer adopt more adaptation. However, there is general over-reliance on institutional bodies to provide and maintain flood-resilience promoting structures in the study area. Recommendation was made that a system needs to be put in place to incorporate some more robust preventive actions to bring about flexibility in flood management. To particularly be incorporated here include improved early warming, synchronous functioning of stakeholders, adequate physical planning, urban renewal, effective urban governance including harnessing of local social capital, increased community collaborative actions and use of local knowledge.

Mashi, SA; Inkani, AI; Obaro, O; Asanarimam, AS

Community perception, response and adaptation strategies towards flood risk in a traditional African city

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04052-2

This article quantifies the aggregate potential of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions in 2030 from the assumed full implementation of major international cooperative initiatives (ICIs). To this end, a methodology is proposed to aggregate emission reduction goals of the most significant and potentially impactful global initiatives. We identified the extent to which reductions are additional to national policies, assuming these actions do not displace climate actions elsewhere, and accounted for overlap ranges between the ICIs. The analysis was conducted for 17 initiatives, selected from an original list of over 300 with a series of testing criteria, across eight sectors and ten major emitting economies. These initiatives include cities, regions, businesses, and other subnational and non-state actors, cooperating with each other and sometimes working in partnership with national governments or other international organizations. Our analysis shows that the combined achievement of initiatives' reduction goals could reduce global emissions in 2030 by 18-21 GtCO(2)e/year in addition to current national policies (total of 60-63 GtCO(2)e/year), down to 39-44 GtCO(2)e/year. If delivered fully, reductions from these 17 initiatives would help move the global emissions trajectory within the range of a 2 degrees C-consistent emission pathway by 2030, although a significant gap would remain to reduce emissions to a 1.5 degrees C-consistent pathway. Key policy insights We propose a transparent and robust methodology to aggregate GHG mitigation potential of ICIs, accounting for overlaps between ICIs. If major initiatives meet their goals and do not change the course of other existing climate actions, they could make large contributions by 2030 towards global efforts to stay within the range of a below 2 degrees C-consistent emission pathway by 2030. The full suite of existing initiatives beyond those in this analysis could further increase ambition towards achieving the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. Cities and regions, businesses and forestry initiatives account for significantly more than half of all possible emission reductions from ICIs; implementation of their goals should be a key policy focus.

Lui, S; Kuramochi, T; Smit, S; Roelfsema, M; Hsu, A; Weinfurter, A; Chan, S; Hale, T; Fekete, H; Lütkehermöller, K; Casas, MJD; Nascimento, L; Sterl, S; Höhne, N

Correcting course: the emission reduction potential of international cooperative initiatives

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1806021

Background Natural flood management (NFM) measures seek to protect, enhance, emulate, or restore the natural function of rivers as part of approaches to flood risk management (FRM). While there is agreement in both academic and practice/policy literature that NFM, in a general sense, should be part of a holistic FRM strategy to address current and future flood risk, the specifics of how to consistently implement NFM successfully in practice are less well known. This is particularly acute for practitioners in the UK given the nature of the UK's biophysical and socio-political context. There is a recognition that existing reviews of NFM effectiveness in the UK tend to focus on the natural science basis and it is unclear how studies account for climate change. Further, reviews tend to focus only on UK studies. This systematic map aims to highlight the way in which existing NFM studies, from different disciplinary backgrounds and across Europe, evaluate effectiveness, and the extent to which they account for climate change. This knowledge can help to make recommendations for future areas of research where the multiple issues around understanding effectiveness can be synthesised, and where climate change is systematically taken into account. Methods This systematic map protocol addresses the following question: what approaches exist to evaluate the effectiveness of UK-relevant natural flood management measures? The protocol details the methodology that will be used to conduct a systematic map of the range of peer-reviewed journal papers, policy documents, guidance, and other forms of grey literature which currently exist on NFM to give an overview on the way in which the effectiveness of NFM is conceived. The methods detail the search strategy employed for gathering items across the peer-reviewed academic literature and grey literature. Additionally, the methods outline how the reviewers will approach article screening, and the eligibility criteria to include/exclude articles. The methods section also details the steps taken to ensure consistency across all reviewers, the data coding strategy, and methods for presenting the final systematic map. Together, the methods employed will help to identify current knowledge gaps, and will enable recommendations to be made for future research.

Connelly, A; Snow, A; Carter, J; Lauwerijssen, R

What approaches exist to evaluate the effectiveness of UK-relevant natural flood management measures? A systematic map protocol

Environmental Evidence

https://doi.org/10.1186/s13750-020-00192-x

Motivation Gender mainstreaming has been increasingly viewed as a fundamental element of agricultural climate adaptation policies. However, the expectation that gender-mainstreaming efforts would contribute towards greater gender equality has been mostly disappointed. Our starting point is this disjuncture between a firm establishment of the gender mainstreaming discourse and the limited visible effects in reducing gender inequalities. Purpose To understand this disjuncture we examine the meanings through which policy makers relate to, and dis/engage with gender issues. The article draws attention to the role of narratives in micro-processes of policymaking that support, perpetuate or create resistance against the concept of gender mainstreaming, or against policy change more broadly. Approach and methods The study deploys a multi-step narrative analysis in which we identify story episodes, co-construct stories, identify and interpret the narratives and finally study these narratives in interaction. The empirical material consists of thirty semi-standardized expert interviews as well as excerpts from ten multi-stakeholder meetings on the themes of climate change, agriculture, rural livelihoods and gender in Uganda. Findings The analysis reveals a complex ecology of 22 stories, clustered in five main narratives. While most stories unfold a Gender Equality narrative, four competing narratives emerge. Shifts during conversations from the Gender Equality narrative to other narratives reveal that the discursive engagement with gender mainstreaming is accompanied by simultaneous resistance, deconstruction and revocation. These narrative shifts exercise four distinct power effects: They (1) shift blame for ineffective gender implementation; (2) legitimize policy inaction; (3) foreground and naturalize patriarchy; and (4) promote the diversion of resources. The implicit communicative strategies exercise powerthroughideas (persuade listeners that the equality narrative is inappropriate), poweroverideas (gender equality ideas are rejected or frustrated) and powerinideas (entrenched patriarchy ideas are reproduced). Policy implications Attention to ideational power through policy narrative contributes to explain implementation issues with gender mainstreaming in Uganda, and is likely to be relevant beyond this case.

Acosta, M; van Wessel, M; van Bommel, S; Ampaire, EL; Jassogne, L; Feindt, PH

The power of narratives: Explaining inaction on gender mainstreaming in Uganda's climate change policy

Development Policy Review

https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12458

Mountains are highly sensitive to climate change. Their elevated areas provide essential ecosystem services both for the surrounding mountainous regions and particularly for adjacent lowlands. Impacts of a warmer climate affect these services and have negative consequences on the supply of water, on biodiversity and on protection from natural hazards. Mountain social-ecological systems are affected by these changes, which also influence communities' risk perception and responses to changing climate conditions. Therefore, to understand individual and societal responses to climate change in mountain areas, aspects and drivers of risk perception need to be scrutinised. This article presents the findings of a literature review of recent English language publications on risk perception in connection to climate change and related natural hazards in mountain regions worldwide. Studies were selected from recorded entries in JSTOR, Science Direct, Scopus and Web of Science covering the period 2000-2019 and analysed in two steps (structured exploratory analysis, n = 249 and in-depth analysis, n = 72) with respect to the studies' research question, methodology, geographical scope and risk perception drivers. The review reveals that socio-demographic factors, like gender, age and personal experiences, have a crucial impact on individual risk perception. Some of the less tangible but nevertheless decisive factors are important in mountain regions such as place attachment and socio-cultural practices. In conclusion, there is however little information in the literature which addresses the specific situation of risk perception in mountain areas and its influence on communities' responses to environmental changes. Further, we observed a strong gap concerning the integration of indigenous knowledge in risk perception research. Many studies overlook or oversimplify local knowledge and the cultural dimensions of risk perception. Based on these results, the paper identifies several gaps in research and knowledge which may influence the design of climate risk management strategies as well as on their successful implementation. (c) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Schneiderbauer, S; Pisa, PF; Delves, JL; Pedoth, L; Rufat, S; Erschbamer, M; Thaler, T; Carnelli, F; Granados-Chahin, S

Risk perception of climate change and natural hazards in global mountain regions: A critical review

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146957

Bangladesh is vulnerable to climate change because of its geographical position. Many extreme weather events such as floods, cyclones, drought, salinity, hailstorms, river, coastal erosion, etc. affect the country almost every year. Although the whole country is affected by extreme weather events to different degrees, it is important to categorize the zones according to the intensity of impacts from climate-induced losses to delineate mitigation and adaptation strategies. To do this in this study, we employed the global climate risk index (CRI) with the available data at district levels collected by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics through a national-level survey to estimate the district-wise CRI of Bangladesh. Moreover, we employed a time series regression model with long-term data collected by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department to estimate the variability of climate parameters (such as temperature, rainfall, humidity). The yearly increment in maximum temperature during 1980-2000 was 0.031 degrees C and it increased by 0.022 degrees C per year during 2001-2020. The annual rainfall over the whole period increased by 223 mm. In general, the overall relative humidity increased by 1.16% between the two periods. There were also periodic changes in climate events along with monthly fluctuations in temperatures, rainfall and humidity patterns. Among the 64 districts of Bangladesh, 4 districts were categorized as severe risk (CRI: > 50), 10 as high risk (CRI: 36-50), and 12 as medium risk (CRI: 26-35) based on climate change impacts. The severe climate risk districts are Sunamganj, Bhola, Kurigram and Patuakhali, where there were losses of 520-720 million USD. In general, 41.71% of the people were affected by climate extremes, and 5.55% suffered from hazard-induced sickness and injury. As a consequence of climate change, flooding showed the greatest contribution to household damages and losses in Bangladesh. These findings can help in prioritizing region-specific mitigation and adaptation actions against the impacts of climate change in Bangladesh.

Rahman, MC; Rahaman, MS; Biswas, JC; Rahman, NMF; Islam, MA; Sarkar, MAR; Islam, MS; Maniruzzaman, M

Climate change and risk scenario in Bangladesh

Asia-Pacific Journal Of Regional Science

https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-022-00252-9

In recent years, flooding has not only disrupted social growth but has also hampered economic development. In many nations, this global epidemic has affected lives, property, and financial damage. Pakistan has experienced many floods in the past several years. Due to economic, social, and climate change, Pakistan is at risk of flooding. In order to overcome this problem, the institutions of the country have taken various measures. However, these measures are not sufficient enough to ensure the safety of communities and areas that are prone to disasters with a rapid onset. Hence, it is imperative to forecast future flood-related risks and take necessary measures to mitigate the adverse impacts and losses caused by floods. This article is aimed at exploring floods in Pakistan, analyze the adverse effects of floods on humans and the environment, and propose possible sustainable options for the future. The aqueduct flood analyzer software was used to examine the impact of floods on gross domestic product (GDP), urban damage, and people livelihood, with several years of flood protection plans. To adequately assess the future changes, various flood protection levels and three scenarios for each level of protection were employed, which represent the socio-economic and climate change. The findings revealed that if there is no flood protection, a 2-year flood has a 50% probability of flood occurrence in any given area and may cause no significant impact on GDP, population, and urban damage. Similarly, the probability of a flood occurrence in a five-year flood is 20%, which may cause the country's GDP about $20.4 billion, with 8.4 million population at risk and $1.4 billion urban damage. Furthermore, a 10-year flood has a 10% probability of flood occurrence and may affect the national GDP by $28.9 billion, with 11.9 million affected population and $2.4 billion urban damage in Pakistan. The government of Pakistan should devise appropriate climate change policies, improve disaster preparedness, build new dams, and update relevant departments to mitigate the adverse effects of flooding.

Khan, I; Lei, HD; Shah, AA; Khan, I; Muhammad, I

Climate change impact assessment, flood management, and mitigation strategies in Pakistan for sustainable future

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-12801-4

Over the past decade, Mexican climate policy has captured worldwide attention for its ambition and level of commitment to international goals. Mexico was one of the first countries to adopt a climate change act, the 2012 General Law on Climate Change (referred to as the Mexican Climate Act, MCA). However, Mexico has been unable to fulfil its self-imposed climate goals and the innovative national climate legislation has only produced limited results. By assessing the functioning of the Inter-Ministerial Commission on Climate Change (CICC) and the National System on Climate Change (SINACC), this article analyses how and why climate policy fragmentation occurs during MCA implementation. This paper argues that the lack of integration observed in the Mexican case is the result of a dynamic process characterized by multi-level paralysis, which is caused by three interconnected factors: (1) weakness of the Mexican federal system affecting vertical integration of climate policy (CPI); (2) ambiguities in MCA mandates impeding horizontal CPI; and (3) uneven leadership in Mexican climate policy that generates a breach between promises made abroad and actual domestic implementation capacities. The empirical findings of this paper are based upon quantitative and qualitative content analyses applied to the minutes of meetings of both the CICC and the SINACC, together with 22 elite-interviews with officers close to the policy process. This paper concludes that if there is a blueprint for organizing the Mexican administrative system, it has to start with rethinking the role of climate federalism. Key policy insights Mexican climate policy suffers from policy fragmentation and administrative instruments conceived for integration are not functioning properly. A reform of both is needed. Three interconnected factors generate policy fragmentation in Mexico: weakness of the Mexican federal system affecting collaboration across levels of government (vertical CPI); ambiguities in MCA mandates impeding coordination (horizontal CPI); and uneven leadership that generates a breach between the promises made abroad and actual domestic implementation capacities. Mexico has to rethink the role of climate federalism. The country adopted a model not suitable to its political and administrative culture.

Solorio, I

Leader on paper, laggard in practice: policy fragmentation and the multi-level paralysis in implementation of the Mexican Climate Act

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1894084

Even though climate change is recognized as a major challenge for the economic growth of developing counties such as Ethiopia, little information has been documented about climate change from local people perspectives. The objectives of this study are to describe socio-economic, biophysical and institutional characteristics of farmers, and assess the causes, indicators and determinant factors of climate change based on farmers' perception in northern Ethiopia. Systematic sampling technique was used to select 60 sample household head farmers. The sample farmers were interviewed using semi-structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed using descriptive, chi-square (chi(2)) and logistic regression analysis. This study revealed that farmers' socioeconomic, farm and institutional attributes influence their perception on climate change. Significantly higher proportions of farmer respondents perceived that deforestation (93%) followed by soil degradation (88%) are the main causes of climate change. Higher proportions of the respondents also identified that the most commonly used indicators of climate change are variability in rainfall (92%), erosion rate (90%), temperature (85%) and agricultural outputs (85%). The success of logistic regression model overall prediction is described by model chi(2) = 81, p = 0.003, indicating that the independent variables significantly explained the dependent variable. The success of the regression model prediction level is also described by a strong association between the perception of farmers on climate change and the group of the explanatory variables by coefficient of determination of 83%. Among the explanatory variables, access to rain-fed agriculture, experience on soil management and water harvesting structures were significantly important determinants of farmers' perception on climate change. It is thus suggested that introduction of comprehensive activities tailored to show in-depth examples of local and global causes and indicators of climate change, considering the determinant variables can enable farmers to design suitable adaptation strategies to climate change (.e.g., land-use based on its suitability, intensifying moisture and water harvesting practices, introducing high yield but short season variety, drought, pest and diseases tolerant crop varieties). (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tesfahunegn, GB; Mekonen, K; Tekle, A

Farmers' perception on causes, indicators and determinants of climate change in northern Ethiopia: Implication for developing adaptation strategies

Applied Geography

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.05.009

Droughts are natural hazards that lead to severe impacts in the agricultural sector. Mountain regions are thought to have abundant water, but have experienced unprecedented drought conditions as climate change is affecting their environments more rapidly than other places. The effect radiates by reducing water availability well beyond the mountains' geographical locations. This study aims to improve the understanding of agriculture's vulnerability to drought in Europe's pre-Alpine region, considering two case studies that have been severely impacted in the past. We applied a mixed-method approach combining the knowledge of regional experts with quantitative data analyses in order to define the region-specific vulnerability based on experts' identified factors. We implemented two aggregation methods by combining the vulnerability factors that could be supported with subregional data. Whereas the equal weighting method combines all factors with the same weight, the expert weighting method combines the factors with varying weight based on the expert's opinion. These two methods resulted in vulnerability maps with the expert weighting showing a higher vulnerability, and partly relocating the medium and lower vulnerabilities to other subregions within the case study regions. In general, the experts confirmed the resulting subregions with higher vulnerability. They also acknowledged the value of mapping vulnerability by adopting different aggregation methods confirming that this can serve as a sensitivity analysis. The identified factors contributing most to the regions' vulnerability point to the potential of adaptation strategies decreasing the agriculture's vulnerability to drought that could enable better preparedness. Apart from region-specific differences, in both study regions the presence of irrigation infrastructure and soil texture are among the most important conditions that could be managed to some extent in order to decrease the regions' vulnerability. Throughout the analyses, the study benefited from the exchange with the experts by getting an in-depth understanding of the regional context with feedback relations between the factors contributing to vulnerability. Qualitative narratives provided during the semi-structured interviews supported a better characterization of local vulnerability conditions and helped to better identify quantitative indicators as proxies to describe the selected vulnerability factors. Thus, we recommend applying this mixed-method approach to close the gap between science and practitioners.

Stephan, R; Terzi, S; Erfurt, M; Cocuccioni, S; Stahl, K; Zebisch, M

Assessing agriculture's vulnerability to drought in European pre-Alpine regions

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023

Rapid urbanization in China has strengthened the connection and cooperation among cities and has also led urban residents to be more vulnerable in adverse environmental conditions. Vulnerability research has been an important foundation in urban risk management. To make cities safe and resilient, it is also necessary to integrate the connection among cities into a vulnerability assessment. Therefore, this paper proposed a new conceptual framework for urban social vulnerability assessment based on network theory, where a new dimension of social vulnerability (connectivity) was added into the framework. Using attribute data, the traditional social vulnerability index of a city (SVInode) was calculated via the projection pursuit cluster (PPC) model. With the relational data retrieved from the Baidu search index, a new dimension (connectivity) of social vulnerability (SVIconnectivity) was evaluated. Finally, an integrated social vulnerability index (SVIurban) was measured combined with SVInode and SVIconnectivity. This method was applied in the Yangtze River Delta region of China, where the top three high values of SVInode belonged to the cities of Taizhou (Z), Jiaxing, and Huzhou. The three lowest cities were Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Shanghai. For SVIurban, the social vulnerability of cities in different hierarchies behaved differently. For Hierarchies 2 and 3, when compared to SVInode, the SVIurban was significantly reduced. However, the variation between SVInode and SVIurban in Hierarchy 4 was slight. Furthermore, an increase for the city of Taizhou (J) in its social vulnerability was achieved after connecting to the network. Huzhou, in Hierarchy 5, increased its social vulnerability the most when adding connectivity in the social vulnerability assessment. Based on the results of our case study, a conclusion was drawn that network connectivity had an influence on social vulnerability. However, when connectivity was strong enough, it could help cities to mitigate their traditional social vulnerability, whereas a loose connection in the network aggregated their traditional social vulnerability. Hence, the latter should be emphasized in future urban risk management.

Ge, Y; Dou, W; Zhang, HB

A New Framework for Understanding Urban Social Vulnerability from a Network Perspective

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su9101723

Flood damages have increased in many regions around the world, and they are expected to continue to rise in the future due to climate change. To reverse this trend, awareness of flood risk among the population is required to support flood risk management policies and improve flood preparedness. However, empirical studies on the drivers of flood risk perceptions conducted thus far have reported mixed and contradictory results. The aim of this study is to provide insights into the factors that influence perceptions of various dimensions of flood risk to draw lessons to guide flood risk communication strategies. We test a variety of hypotheses of possible factors of influence on flood risk perceptions that are motivated by theoretical concepts and previous empirical studies, whilst also controlling for socio-demographic variables. A representative sample of 2,976 residents answered our survey assessing the role that past flood experiences and risk communication play in shaping flood risk perceptions. Besides exploring flood risk perceptions more robustly, this large sample also facilitates the systematic study of 'don't know' answers, which are often dismissed as missing data in many studies. Rather in this study we analyze what 'don't know' answers reflect in terms of knowledge about particular dimensions of flood risk. The study finds that older people, as well as those who have higher levels of income and education, are significantly more likely to express their flood risk perceptions, respondents who are unable to answer the questions on flood risk perceptions face a lower flood risk, report to have been living in their neighbourhood for a shorter period of time and have less first-hand flood experience. Previous studies might thus be biased by an implicit selection effect. Finally, we show that findings are highly dependent on other explicit choices made by researchers, including the apparently self-fulfilling impact of selecting one explanatory framework over another. New insights emerge from the role that information campaigns and social vulnerability play in the ability to answer the questions. Based on our findings, we offer recommendations for improving flood risk communication policies, specifically increasing the frequency of communication, ensuring that campaigns are focused in terms of the content they provide and the subgroups of the population they target.

Rufat, S; Botzen, WJW

Drivers and dimensions of flood risk perceptions: Revealing an implicit selection bias and lessons for communication policies

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102465

The most vulnerable countries often face a double burden in relation to climate change-they are at high risk to the impacts and are least equipped to cope and adapt. Global climate policy since the Convention in 1992, until most recently with the global goal on adaptation in the Paris Agreement, has manifested the importance of prioritizing adaptation support to the most vulnerable countries. The main objective of this study is to understand the enabling and constraining factors that play a role in the process of allocating and accessing global adaptation assistance. We adopted a mixed-methods approach combining two major streams of analysis. First, this paper aims to track bilateral adaptation finance to all so-called developing countries, as bilateral support has been the largest share of international adaptation finance. Second, the paper draws on semi-structured expert interviews and looks at the country level to identify the factors beyond vulnerability that play a role in the distribution of adaptation finance from a recipient's and a donor's perspective, using India and Germany as examples. The analysis yields three main findings. First, countries' vulnerability as measured by standard metrics does not seem to be the prime factor explaining the distribution of available bilateral adaptation assistance. This is in contrast to the political narrative in the emerging climate finance architecture. Second, interview data identified other factors beyond vulnerability that play a role from a donor perspective, such as the perceived capacity to manage and implement projects, the commitment given to climate change and other political priorities. Third, from a recipient perspective, rather than its vulnerability level in a global comparison, strong institutional capacity played a prominent role in attracting adaptation finance. Looking out into the future, the findings underscore the practical and political challenges in relation to a vulnerability-oriented prioritization of funding and they point towards the need to increase countries' capacities to attract and manage international adaptation support. The findings also raise questions on how to overcome the vexing conflict in the emerging adaptation finance architecture between accommodating for donors' requirements of high fiduciary standards and enabling access by the most vulnerable countries, which are often short of resources and institutional capacities.

Doshi, D; Garschagen, M

Understanding Adaptation Finance Allocation: Which Factors Enable or Constrain Vulnerable Countries to Access Funding?

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su12104308

For many Indigenous Peoples in the Circumpolar North, cultural engagement and continuity across generations is directly related to relationships between and among people, animals, and landscapes. However, minimal research outlines the emotional responses and disruptions to culture and identity that are driven by ecological change, and the subsequent cultural dimensions of coping and adapting to this uncertainty. Through a case study that explores how caribou population declines and a caribou hunting ban are impacting Inuit in the Nunatsiavut and NunatuKavut regions of Labrador, Canada, this article examines the critical interplay between cultural continuity and adaptive capacity for responding to ecological uncertainty. More specifically, this study: 1) described the central role that caribou play for Inuit emotional wellness, identity, and cultural continuity; 2) explored how the rapid declines of caribou in Labrador are affecting Inuit emotional wellness, identity, and cultural continuity; and 3) characterized the ways in which Inuit are adapting to these emotio-social, cultural, and ecological changes. Drawing from an Inuit-led, multi-year, multi-media qualitative and visual media research program, data from video interviews (n = 84: Nunatsiavut region: n = 54; NunatuKavut region: n = 30) were analyzed using a video-based qualitative analysis, constant-comparative methods, and inductive qualitative approach. Results indicated that caribou are a foundational element for Inuit emotional wellness, identity, and cultural continuity. The changes in caribou populations are resulting in complex emotional responses, losses to cultural meaning and knowledge, and alterations to Inuit identities. The impacts on emotions, identity, and cultural continuity related to Inuit-caribou relations at an individual and collective level reflect the interconnections between cultural continuity and adaptive capacity that underlie the loss of this culturally important species. Though this research focuses on two Inuit groups and caribou in Labrador, the insights from these lived experiences highlight the ongoing cultural and identity consequences associated with species declines occurring globally.

Borish, D; Cunsolo, A; Snook, J; Shiwak, I; Wood, M; Mauro, I; Dewey, C; Harper, SL

Caribou was the reason, and everything else happened after: Effects of caribou declines on Inuit in Labrador, Canada

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102268

This paper describes an assessment of the ways in which water supply companies in England and Wales are adapting to climate change, evaluated in the context of a model of the adaptation process. The four components of the model are (i) awareness of and concern about the potential impacts of climate change, (ii) adaptation strategy, (iii) the concept of an adaptation space from which options are selected, and (iv) the notion that three groups of factors influence awareness, strategy and option selection: susceptibility to change, internal characteristics of the organisation, and regulatory and market context. Public water supply in England and Wales is provided by private sector companies, subject to environmental and economic regulation. Hydrological simulations suggest that climate change has the potential to reduce the reliability of supply sources over the next few decades. The industry in December 2004 completed a review of investment requirements over the next five years. Awareness of climate change is high in the water industry, but by developing assessment procedures and incorporating them into the investment review the regulators forced companies to consider explicitly the potential impacts of climate change in a consistent and rigorous manner. These analyses combined climate change with other pressures on water resources, and in practice companies did not attribute specific investment decisions or proposals to climate change or indeed any other individual drivers. The broad strategy adopted by all water supply companies - to maintain standards of service - is determined by regulatory controls and market considerations, but the degree of concern about the impacts of climate change and precise adaptation options necessary to address supply-demand imbalances varied between water supply companies, reflecting local geographic conditions. The water supply companies and regulators have different perspectives on the relative merits of supply-side and demand-side measures, reflecting different organisational priorities. The 2004 investment review determined that no specific actions were necessary to deal with future climate change, but that measures set in place - in terms of methodologies and investment in investigations into specific resource developments - provided a sound foundation for more specific actions in the next investment review in five years time. The paper concludes by summarising the factors assisting and constraining adaptation over the next few decades.

Arnell, NW; Delaney, EK

Adapting to climate change: Public water supply in England and Wales

Climatic Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9067-9

Climate change will increase risks significantly in many areas of society, and also will make many risks more uncertain and harder to measure. If our society is to survive climate change without significant human costs, we must develop robust institutions and practices to manage these risks. The insurance industry is our society's primary financial risk manager and needs to play a leading role in developing these institutions and practices. But climate change poses an unprecedented challenge to the insurance industry, because factors such as increasing uncertainty and the potential for highly correlated losses will make it difficult to insure against climate change-related risks and will strain capital markets' ability to compensate those who are affected. If the industry rises to the challenge, it stands to profit while facilitating our most successful responses to climate change-related threats around the world. If not, insurers will suffer along with everyone else. A report issued recently by a major financial services firm identified climate change as the number one strategic threat facing the insurance industry, noting that it is a long-term issue with broad-reaching implications that will significantly affect the industry. To date, however, there has been relatively little effort to examine what supply- and demand-side barriers may be impeding development of insurance products that address climate change risk effectively. In this context, this Article examines the incentives that insurance products provide to influence the climate change-mitigating and adaptive capacity-building behavior of policyholders and other actors. It also looks at the reasons that insurers might or might not choose to provide those products and the reasons individuals and businesses may or may not choose to purchase those products. Finally, it examines the extent to which the insurance industry's products are likely to play a significant and effective role in affecting private actors' responses to climate change. The Article concludes that although it is not yet clear whether and how the insurance industry will be able to address climate change in a way that systematically creates solutions, the industry's future-and perhaps the rest of ours as well-may rest on the success or failure of its adaptation to a world with a changing climate.

Hecht, SB

Climate change and the transformation of risk: Insurance matters

Ucla Law Review

Sea ice has been, and continues to be, an integral component of life in the Inuit community of Pangnirtung, Nunavut. Located in a fiord of the same name off the northeastern end of Cumberland Sound, extensive ice formation occurs within the ford and the sound. This creates an important travel and hunting platform, and enables access to the coastlines of Cumberland Sound, hunting and fishing grounds, and nearby communities. With the combined importance, dynamism, and continuous use of this frozen ocean environment, local Inuit elders and hunters have developed a detailed and nuanced understanding of sea ice conditions, freeze/thaw processes, and the influences of winds and currents on ice conditions. Working collaboratively with the community of Parignirtung since September 2003, we present the results of 30 semi-directed interviews, 5 sea ice trips, and 2 focus groups to provide a baseline understanding of local freezing processes (near-shore, open water, sea ice thickening, landfast ice, tidal cracks, and the floe edge), melting processes (snow melt, water accumulation and drainage, and break-up), wind influences oil sea ice (wind direction and strength affecting sea ice formation and movement), and, current influences on sea ice (tidal variations and current strength affecting sea ice formation, movement, and polynya size/location). Strong emphasis is placed on Inuktitut terminology and spatial delineations of localised ice conditions and features. Therefore, this paper provides insights into local scale ice conditions and dynamics around Parignirtung that are not captured in regional scale Studies of Cumberland Sound and/or Davis Strait. As the third in a series of three papers on the same Subject, but from different communities in the Qikiqtaaluk (Baffin) Region of Nunavut, this paper also provides a comparative summary of Inuktitut and scientific sea ice terminology along with an overview of the broader implications of results for collaborative science, education, and heritage initiatives.

Laidler, GJ; Dialla, A; Joamie, E

Human geographies of sea ice: freeze/thaw processes around Pangnirtung, Nunavut, Canada

Polar Record

https://doi.org/10.1017/S003224740800750X

Inupiaq, Yup'ik, and Cup'ik hunters in 14 Alaska Native communities described a rapidly changing marine environment in qualitative traditional knowledge interviews conducted over the course of a decade with 110 individuals. Based on their observations, sea ice conditions are the most notable change, with later freeze-up, thinner and less reliable ice, and earlier and more rapid break-up. Marine mammal populations in northern and western Alaska have been affected by changes in the physical environment, with alterations to migratory timing and routes, distribution, abundance, health, and behavior. Despite these changes, marine mammal populations in the region remain generally healthy and abundant. For hunters, access is the biggest challenge posed by changing conditions. Sea ice is less safe for travel, particularly for more southerly communities, making hunting more dangerous or impossible. Rapid break-up has reduced the time available for hunting amid broken ice in spring, formerly a dependable and preferred season. Social change also affects the ways in which hunting patterns change. Increased industrial development, for example, can also alter marine mammal distribution and reduce hunting opportunity. Reduced use of animal skins for clothing and other purposes has reduced demand. More powerful and reliable engines make day trips easier, reducing the time spent camping. An essential component of adjustment and adaptation to changing conditions is the retention of traditional values and the acquisition of new information to supplement traditional knowledge. Our findings are consistent with, and add detail to, what is known from previous traditional knowledge and scientific studies. The ways in which hunters gather new information and incorporate it into their existing understanding of the marine environment deserves further attention, both as a means of monitoring change and as a key aspect of adaptation. While the changes to date have been largely manageable, future prospects are unclear, as the effects of climate change are expected to continue in the region, and ecological change may accelerate. Social and regulatory change will continue to play a role in fostering or constraining the ability of hunters to adapt to the effects of climate change.

Huntington, HP; Quakenbush, LT; Nelson, M

Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on Indigenous Marine Mammal Hunting in Northern and Western Alaska Using Traditional Knowledge

Frontiers In Marine Science

https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00319

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore the feasibility of developing an adaptive strategy to address the impact of climate change in the context of flooding. Design/methodology/approach - The paper analyses flood risk and highlights the need for an adaptive strategic plan for flood risk management under the impact of climate change. It introduces a framework for the development of an adaptive strategic plan. The paper identifies organizational issues (at the local government scale) associated with having an adaptive strategic plan and developing a methodology to address these issues. It also identifies the need for a strategic decision support system (SDSS) and conceptualizing the system in order to support adaptive planning principle. Findings - This study identifies lack of adaptability as a gap in traditional strategic planning for addressing flood risk associated with climate change. An adaptive strategic plan has adequate flexibility, promptness and responsiveness to adapt itself to new realities as they emerge and can sustain itself and remain relevant in a changing environment. The study introduces a SDSS that is necessary to support the adaptive element of an adaptive strategic plan. Originality/value - This study distinguishes between a strategy for adaptation and an adaptive strategy. Most research on the topic of adaptation to climate change have been focused on developing strategies that offer adaptive solutions to pressing problems such as flooding. For instance, they may recommend more investment on non-structural methods for flood mitigation, as they are more adaptive than alternative structural methods and therefore more sustainable under climate change. An issue that has attracted less attention is the fact that the strategic plans themselves (or in a sense the decision-making framework) need to be equally adaptive. Some of public institutions do not have adequate flexibility and promptness to change and rectify high-level strategic plans. The study identifies the lack of an SDSS, which allows new scientific findings to be converted to new policies in a short period of time, as a reason for absence of promptness, responsiveness and flexibility in such organizations. This study makes an attempt to address this issue by suggesting a frame work that will enable a government institution to become more responsive to change.

Mirfenderesk, H; Corkill, D

The need for adaptive strategic planning Sustainable management of risks associated with climate change

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/17568690910955612

This paper presents the development of a large-scale (e.g. several thousand km(2)) high-resolution (e.g. 250 m) distributed rainfall-runoff/flood inundation simulation (DRR/FI) model and an economic loss estimation model considering the confidence interval within what is called the Kyoto, Kobe University-SJNK (KKU-SJNK) model. The DRR/FI model can simulate rainfall-runoff, dike-breaks, and inland flood inundation processes simultaneously in a seamless/integrated manner with practical accuracy. The river network for the modelling includes most of the catchment main and tributary rivers; thus, DRR/FI can simulate all of the discharge/water levels of the rivers in the catchment. Data processing was carried out with ArcGIS, which handles large data sets as one sees them with a graphical interface. The coordinate system of the model is appropriately set up; thus, the model can interact with other models such as weather, climate, evacuation, vulnerability and financial models. This also makes it possible to use extensive GIS data from all over the world. Moreover a vulnerability model, what we call the KKU-SJNK model, was developed. The KKU-SJNK model yields the damage ratios and thus economic loss of buildings due to flooding considering the confidence interval. The models are applied to the Yodogawa River catchment (8240 km(2)), the 7th largest river catchment in Japan, which crosses six prefectures. Though the catchment size is not necessarily very large compared with continental rivers, there is seldom seen such a detailed high-resolution large-scale runoff-inundation model in Japan. To validate the model, data from 1997 and 2009 floods in the Yodogawa River catchment was used. The results of the model exhibited the potential effectiveness of the DRR/FI + KKU-SJNK model for risk management toward property loss insurance, though it also identified some difficulties. The paper presents these results.

Kobayashi, K; Takara, K; Sano, H; Tsumori, H; Sekii, K

A high-resolution large-scale flood hazard and economic risk model for the property loss insurance in Japan

Journal Of Flood Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12117

Anthropogenically-driven changes in seasonal climate patterns are already jeopardizing traditional farming practices all around the world. These climatic changes increasingly expose farmers to challenging conditions, reducing the efficacy of existing farm practices and productivity. There is a plethora of information, tools, and practices that could be useful for farmers trying to respond to climate variability and change, including climate projections, horticultural advances, and agricultural management best practices. Whilst these tools and knowledge exist, they are often not contextualized in ways that equitably facilitate decision-making and action. To ensure weather and climate information services are accessible and useful to farmers, it is critical to understand and integrate considerations for the desired types, timing, and uses of the information. The one-size-fits-all information services that are often available don't account for regional or social differences, local physical conditions, or the needs of different populations. In order to improve our understanding of how weather and climate information services can better cater to farmers' needs when modifying and adapting their goals, risk management, and farm practices, we carried out a household survey in communities across three provinces in Papua New Guinea. The survey was developed to draw out key design considerations for seasonal climate forecasts in terms of timing, type of information, and applications. Based on the clustering and associations of these variables, this study identifies different profiles of information services content. It then examines whether specific profiles are associated with demographic groups or geographic locations. The findings demonstrate gender and geographic differences in the desired bundles of weather and climate information, and therefore can help to pinpoint specific components that would be beneficial to incorporate into extension and outreach programmes in different contexts within Papua New Guinea. This study highlights the value of tailoring weather and climate information services with specific groups of farmers, thereby enabling more equitable access to and use of critical knowledge for smallholders to build the capacity, knowledge, and systems to strategically adapt to climate change. At the same time, this study illustrates areas to gain efficiency and potentially scale up the provision of climate information services.

Friedman, RS; Mackenzie, E; Baiga, R; Inape, K; Crimp, SJ; Howden, M

Designing Climate Information Services to Enhance Resilient Farming Activities: Lessons From Papua New Guinea

Frontiers In Climate

https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.871987

Climate variability is variation of climate elements from the longterm mean state on all spatiotemporal scales. Climate variability affects microfinance institutions directly and indirectly through physical and transition risks. However, no studies have analyzed the effects of climate variability in relation to informal microfinance institutions. The study, therefore, analyzed the effects of climate variability in relation to informal microfinance institutions. It used a descriptive study design and multi-stage sampling design. Data was analyzed using thematic analysis, descriptive analysis, and Kendall's tau-b correlation analysis. The study found a positive trend in climate variability (tau(b) = 0:174, alpha > 0:05). Local people are highly vulnerable to climate variability as confirmed by 98.7% of the respondents who observed that climate variability affects their livelihoods. This vulnerability stems from the effect of climate variability on access to capital assets and livelihood strategies. Vulnerability to climate variability has a significant negative effect on loan repayment performance, loan access and sustainability, and hence on informal microfinance performance (tau(b) = -0.109**, P < 0.01). Nevertheless, climate variability increases participation in informal microfinance institutions as shown by the positive relationship with the number of people who joined informal microfinance institutions (tau(b) = 0.239 **, P < 0.01) and the number formed per year (tau(b) = 0.137, P < 0.01) from 1981 to 2018. This is because informal microfinance institutions help vulnerable households in building resilience to climate variability as observed by 80.8% of the respondents. The characteristics of informal microfinance institutions have positive or negative relationships with vulnerability to climate variability. These relationships are and could be further leveraged upon to address effects of climate variability on informal microfinance institutions. Detailed contextual analysis of informal microfinance institutions in the nexus of climate variability is thus imperative to inform actions aimed at cushioning the groups and their members against the impacts.

Kaua, CG; Thenya, T; Mutheu, JM

Analyzing Effects Of Climate Variability In The Nexus Of Informal Microfinance Institutions: A Case Study Of Tharaka South Subcounty, Kenya

Challenges In Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.12924/cis2021.09010001

Background A sustainable energy system based on renewables, energy-efficiency, decentralisation of energy generation and synergies between different sectors requires new energy planning methods and policies. Energy transition and climate change mitigation achievement can no longer be seen only through top-down activities from a national government. Local and regional governments have a crucial role in delivering public policies relevant to such endeavour. Therefore, the implementation of multilevel governance (MLG) has become a priority for fostering local and regional development more inclusively. Paper analyses the existing energy planning governance in Austria throughout the MLG structure by focusing on the alignment between the local energy and climate initiatives and the national and EU goals. Also, the paper examined the effectiveness of the current MLG structures and outlined the fields where improvements are needed. The successfulness of the MLG approach is shown on Judenburg city case study. Desk research is enhanced by a series of interviews with energy policy experts and implementation of case study measures in TIMES model. Results The MLG analysis showed the solid alignment of different governance levels. In contrast, the comparison of the energy and climate initiatives on the local level outlined recommendations for the design of more effective energy planning approach. Four areas of action are identified for further improvement: territorial fragmentation, data availability, spatial energy planning and new integrated MLG. The remaining non-conventional biomass potential of the Murtal region is enough to increase the share of district heating for the residential buildings of the Judenburg city from 16.3 to 30.8% while the building refurbishment increases district heating share to 32%. Conclusion Application of MLG analysis demonstrated the alignment of energy targets in Austrian policy on different governance levels. The general willingness of Austrian municipalities to take part in local energy actions was shown through the local initiatives' analysis. It is argued that strengthening the listed areas of work is necessary to raise the effectiveness of the local initiatives. The case study for the city of Judenburg developed in the TIMES model confirmed that coordinated actions from different levels of governance lead to effective implementation of measures.

Dobravec, V; Matak, N; Sakulin, C; Krajacic, G

Multilevel governance energy planning and policy: a view on local energy initiatives

Energy Sustainability And Society

https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-020-00277-y

Indigenous Peoples' advocacy has enabled them to position themselves in global debates on climate change. Although the international community progressively acknowledges Indigenous Peoples' contributions to climate action, their effective recognition in national climate governance remains marginal. This article analyses Indigenous Peoples' rec-ognition in the climate governance of Latin American states based on a document analysis of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted between 2016 and March 2022. A content analysis and a frequency analysis were con-ducted on 30 documents. Mentions related to Indigenous Peoples in the NDCs are increasing; nevertheless, this recognition reproduces the multicultural approach that has characterized Latin American states' legislations and thereby undermines the coherence of climate policy. The references mainly allude to cultural diversity and climatic vulnerability without ad-dressing the ongoing territorial confticts that mediate the relationship between Indigenous Peoples and states. Nor do the NDCs recognize the right of Indigenous Peoples to participate at the different levels of climate change decision-making processes. Intercultural recognition of Indigenous Peoples and better standards of participation in climate change gover-nance are mandatory. However, states must first promote institutional transformations to address the historical and institu-tional factors that have produced Indigenous Peoples' climate vulnerability and generate the necessary mechanisms to implement the recognition committed to in the NDCs.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The decisions of the Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change progressively encourage the participation of Indigenous Peoples and consider their knowledge in decision-making processes. Our article explores how this recommendation is assumed in Latin America through the analysis of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)}the national pledges in the context of the Paris Agreement for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change. Our findings reveal that the mentions and recognition of Indigenous Peoples in NDCs are increasing. This recognition is not matched by promoting full and meaningful intercultural participation. In addition to generating mechanisms for effective participation, addressing the multiple historical and institutional drivers of Indigenous Peoples' climate vulnerability is necessary.

Carmona, R; Carril, F; Yon, R

The Recognition of Indigenous Peoples in Latin American Climate Governance: A Review of Nationally Determined Contributions

Weather Climate And Society

https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0059.1

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change on economic development in Bangladesh. More specifically, the research aims to figure out the influence of climate change on gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate related to different sectors such as agriculture, forest, water, health and infrastructure. It also attempts to explore the effect of climate change on the coastal economy of Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach A set of statistical and econometric techniques, including descriptive and correlation analysis and time series regression model, was applied to address the objective of the research. Sector-wise time series economic data were collected from the World Bank for the period between 1971 and 2013. Climate data were received from the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council online database for the period between 1948 and 2013. Findings The results from the statistical analysis show that climate variables such as temperature and rainfall have changed between 1948 and 2013 in the context of Bangladesh. The econometric regression analysis demonstrates that an increase by 1 degrees C of annual mean temperature leads to a decrease in the GDP growth rate by 0.44 per cent on average, which is statistically significant at the 5 per cent level. On the other hand, the estimated coefficients of agriculture, industry, services, urbanization and export are positively associated with GDP growth rate, and these are statistically significant at the 1 per cent level. Sector-wise correlation analysis provides statistical evidence that climate change is negatively associated with various sectors, such as agriculture, forest, human health and arable land. In contrast, it has a positive relation to water access and electricity consumption. Analysis of coastal regions shows that climate change negatively affects the local economic sectors of the coastal zone of the country. Originality/value Although this study has received significant insight from the world-renowned research publication The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, there is a dearth of research on the economic impact of climate change in the context of Bangladesh. The findings of the paper provide deep insight into and comprehensive views of policy makers on the impact of climate change on economic growth and various sectors in Bangladesh.

Roy, A; Haider, MZ

Stern review on the economics of climate change: implications for Bangladesh

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2017-0089

This study analyses 21 fatal flood events from 10 different southern and eastern Asian countries. The case-specific flood disaster-related data mainly categorised into flood characteristics, socio-economy, disaster preparedness, emergency response and impact are collected from the concerned authorities in each country. Data for all selected flood events are compiled and compared to check the seriousness of the flood problem at different localities in the selected regions. At least one flood event from each country, namely Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia, China, Lao PDR, Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh and Nepal, is considered. The analysis was divided into three parts: (1) flood impact sector analysis, (2) flood human death cause analysis and (3) flood disaster critical cause and effect analysis. The result shows that the majority of flood-related deaths was mainly caused by drowning, which accounts 44% of flood deaths. Despite the evacuation advisories issued in 65% cases, many people stayed at homes either due to the lack of timely available information or due to confusion about the reliability of provided information or ignorance or overconfidence with their safety. In many cases, the early warning information did not reach to the community because of the lack of appropriate communication mechanisms. Most of the areas were protected by some levels of structural measures such as levees, but the quantity and quality of such measures are not sufficient and are not often linked to non-structural measures. Large-scale floods acutely impacted on public infrastructures. The worst hit sector was transportation. These results imply the importance of mainstreaming disaster risk management in the development sectors. Mainstreaming flood disaster risk management in the development sectors does not necessarily mean to only protect the hard gained development but at the same time to accelerate and enhance the effort of building resiliency and therefore the socioeconomic development by better planning and designing of any kind of infrastructures in the flood plain areas. The findings from this study are helpful in identifying, prioritising and coordinating the measures for the effective flood risk management at the localities.

Osti, R; Nakasu, T

Lessons learned from southern and eastern Asian urban floods: from a local perspective

Journal Of Flood Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12107

With the impacts of rapid urbanization and climate change, the urban flood has increasingly become a major hazard risk faced by human being in recent decades. The catastrophic urban flood events appear every year in the world, especially in Asia and Pacific region due to its geographical composition, density population and un-even economic and social development. To reduce the urban flood risk and enhance the resilience of vulnerable communities, especially coastal communities, the Members of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) have made their great efforts including engineering and non-engineering measures based on their different national conditions. As a key part of non-engineering measures, it is recognized that improving urban flood monitoring and forecasting is a measure with high benefit related to cost on urban flood risk reduction. In recent years, TC Members enhanced their capacity building on urban flood monitoring, forecasting and simulation, inundation mapping, etc. In order to enhance the technical cooperation and exchange on this aspect, Typhoon Committee Working Group on Hydrology (WGH) conducted two projects on Urban Flood Risk Management in Typhoon Committee Area (UFRM) and Operation System for Urban Flood Forecasting and Inundation Mapping (OSUFFIM) in the past years. This paper generally reviewed the situation and causes of urban flood in TC region; briefly summarized the progresses and shortages on urban flood monitoring and forecasting in TC Members; and initially discussed the areas to be enhanced in future for improvement of urban flood monitoring, forecasting and simulation, and inundation mapping with up-to-date development of weather radar and satellite monitoring, image-based monitoring, information technology (IT), Internet of Things (IoT), big data and artificial intelligence (AI).(c) 2022 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communication Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Liu, JP; Cho, HS; Osman, S; Jeong, HG; Lee, K

Review of the status of urban flood monitoring and forecasting in TC region

Tropical Cyclone Research And Review

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2022.07.001

Environmental hazards like drought lead to degrading food production and adversely impact the agro-economy. This study investigates the contributions of different climatic and socio-economic variables to agricultural drought in Jharkhand. The three primary criteria, i.e., exposure (E), sensitivity (S), and adaptive capacity (AC), responsible for agricultural drought vulnerability, were examined to identify the drought-prone areas. Long-term (1958-2020) gridded climatic datasets obtained from the Terra-climate global dataset, MODIS vegetation index dataset (MOD13Q1) for the years 2001-2020, different soil parameters obtained from the ISRIC global soil database and state agricultural portal of Jharkhand, and different socio-economic datasets obtained from census data (2011) provided by Govt. of India, were utilized for this study. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to estimate the weighted contribution of the indicator variables falling under each criterion (E, S, and AC), and three criteria index maps were generated. These separate maps were further integrated to generate the final vulnerability index map. Finally, the study area was categorized into different zones based on the drought vulnerability index value ranging from 0 to 1, according to the severity of the drought. It was observed that about 4.05%, 28.12%, and 37.07% of the total geographical area is very highly, highly, and moderately vulnerable to agricultural drought, respectively. Amongst the three primary criteria, exposure showed a significant positive correlation (R = 0.61), and sensitivity showed a strong positive correlation (R = 0.55) with vulnerability. The adaptive capacity was negatively correlated (R = -0.75) with the vulnerability. However, putting equal weights to the variables to calculate the vulnerability, the exposure and sensitivity indicators showed a significant positive correlation with the vulnerability, with an R-value of 0.82 and 0.79, respectively. In contrast, the adaptive capacity showed a negative correlation with the vulnerability with R = -0.75.

Koley, S; Jeganathan, C

Evaluating the climatic and socio-economic influences on the agricultural drought vulnerability in Jharkhand

Environmental Monitoring And Assessment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10557-z

Examination of the distribution of climate vulnerability, water resources, and economic opportunities in a Peruvian watershed suggests that, rather than the concept of adaptation, a focus on political agency is important to highlight the creative and dynamic political action in local responses to climate change. Peasant farmers and herders in the Peruvian headwaters are among the most vulnerable to global warming, since they are the first to experience the changes in water supplies. Leaders in the highlands claim rights connected to a fluid ownership of water that is born in their territory and demand payments from the companies making money on this water based on the principles of reciprocity and justice. These demands are attempts at taking control of an uncertain future and as such are examples of political agency relating to climate change. El examen de la distribucion de la vulnerabilidad climatica, los recursos hidricos, y las oportunidades economicas en una cuenca peruana sugiere que, en lugar del concepto de adaptacion, un enfoque sobre la agencia politica es importante para resaltar la accion politica creativa y dinamica en las respuestas locales al cambio climatico. Los campesinos y pastores en las cabeceras de cuencas se encuentran entre los mas vulnerables al calentamiento global porque son los primeros en experimentar los cambios en las reservas de agua. Los lideres en las partes altas reclaman derechos conectados a una pertenencia fluida del agua que nace en su territorio y exigen pagos de las companias que hacen dinero de esta agua basandose en los principios de reciprocidad y justicia. Estas demandas son intentos de tomar control de un futuro incierto y como tal, son ejemplos de agencia politica relacionada con el cambio climatico.

Stensrud, AB

Harvesting Water for the Future: Reciprocity and Environmental Justice in the Politics of Climate Change in Peru

Latin American Perspectives

https://doi.org/10.1177/0094582X16637866

The increasing frequency and severity of natural catastrophes due to climate change is expected to cause higher natural disaster losses in the future. Reinsurance companies bear a large share of this risk in the form of excess-of-loss coverage, where they underwrite the most extreme portion of insurers' risk portfolios. Past experience has shown that after a very large natural disaster, or multiple disasters in close succession, the recapitalization need of reinsurers could trigger a hard reinsurance capital market, where a high demand for capital increases the price charged by investors, which is opposed to a soft market, where there is a high availability of capital for reinsurers. Consequently, the rising costs of underwriting are transferred to insurers, which ultimately could trigger higher premiums for natural catastrophe (NatCat) insurance worldwide. Here, we study the vulnerability of riverine flood insurance systems in the EU to global reinsurance market conditions and climate change. To do so, we apply the Dynamic Integrated Flood Insurance (DIFI) model, and compare insurance premiums, unaffordability, and the uptake for soft and hard reinsurance market conditions under an average and extreme scenario of climate change. We find that a rising average and higher variance of flood risk towards the end of the century can increase flood insurance premiums and cause higher premium volatility resulting from global reinsurance market conditions. Under a mild scenario of climate change, the projected yearly premiums for EU countries, combined, are euro1380 higher under a hard compared to a soft reinsurance capital market in 2080. For a high-end climate change scenario, this difference becomes euro3220. The rise in premiums causes problems with the unaffordability of flood coverage and results in a declining demand for flood insurance, which increases the financial vulnerability of households to flooding. A proposed solution is to introduce government reinsurance for flood risk, as governments can often provide cheaper reinsurance coverage and are less subject to the volatility of the capital markets.

Tesselaar, M; Botzen, WJW; Aerts, JCJH

Impacts of Climate Change and Remote Natural Catastrophes on EU Flood Insurance Markets: An Analysis of Soft and Hard Reinsurance Markets for Flood Coverage

Atmosphere

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020146

Barge transport operations on the Mackenzie River, a major transportation corridor in the Northwest Territories, are impacted by multiple sources of uncertainties. In particular, the impacts of climate change on this important corridor have led to summer shipping seasons that are growing more volatile in terms of length and quality. This change can lead to a growing reliance on costly airlifts for delivering essential freight that cannot be delivered by barge during seasons that end early due to low water. The Government of Northwest Territories has been planning the construction of the Mackenzie Valley Highway (MVH) for decades to provide cheaper, more reliable transportation for communities. However, the costs of constructing the MVH are prohibitive, and traditional benefit-cost analyses are unable to consider flexible investment actions in response to uncertainties. Therefore, we apply a real options modeling framework to determine if and when to construct the different segments of the MVH, considering climate change and freight demand uncertainties. We first model climate and freight demand uncertainties as geometric Brownian motion processes. Next, a benefit-cost model is developed. Finally, we use the least-squares Monte Carlo method to solve for extended project values and optimal investment times for each segment. The results indicate that Segment 2 has the largest value with an optimal seven-year delay in investment time, followed by Segment 1, Segment 3, and Segment 4 in the last year of the planning period (or possibly beyond). Freight demand volatility appears to have the greatest impact on project values and investment years. The results show that, although the benefits of construction may not outweigh the costs now, they may at some future date; in between, decision makers have opportunities to change their minds as conditions change. This is particularly important in northern Canada, where highly costly infrastructure investment decisions are subject to massive uncertainties. Overall, we see such an approach as a tool to communicate the value of uncertainty in infrastructure benefit-cost analyses and as one tool in a larger decision-support toolbox that is required for major transportation investments in northern Canada.

Li, HA; Kim, AM; Jin, JJ

Transportation Infrastructure Decision Flexibility in Response to Climate Change and Demand Uncertainties: The Mackenzie Valley Highway in Canada's Northwest Territories

Journal Of Infrastructure Systems

https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000655

Over the last thirty years, Bangladesh has been experiencing hill cutting problems and subsequent landslide occurrence in its southeastern hilly region. Since 2000, landslides have caused over 500 deaths, mostly in informal settlements in southeast Bangladesh. The most significant single event was the 2007 landslide causing 127 deaths in Chittagong's informal settlements. The landslide events took over 110 people in Rangamati on 12 June 2017. In the scenario of rising deaths by landslides in the southeastern region, this research aimed to understand communities' landslide hazard knowledge, reasons for living in at-risk areas, risk perception and preparedness. This research applied both quantitative (i.e., structural questionnaire) and qualitative (i.e., semi-structured and open-ended questionnaire and informal interviews) data collection techniques to assess hill-top and hill-side dwellers knowledge, risk perception and preparedness to landslides in southeast Bangladesh. The investigation conducted face-to-face interviews with 208 community members, 15 key informant interviews, three Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and field observations and visits in southeast Bangladesh. The findings suggest that unplanned development activities, overpopulation, settlement along hill slopes and ineffective disaster risk reduction efforts are the anthropogenic contributories accompanying climate-change induced increased torrential rainfall are the main reasons for the increase of landslide occurrence. The results suggest that community members perceive a low-risk for landslides, despite the community's location in high-risk areas. The community's perception of low risk results in a lack of preparedness and an unwillingness to relocate a comparatively safer place. It was noted that landslide disaster preparation depends on the communities' development maturity, house ownership, ethnicity, gender and economic status of the residents. It is suggested that the place of relocation for residents living in the high-risk areas should be selected with full consideration of psychosocial aspects of the community, particularly providing acceptable livelihood options.

Alam, E

Landslide Hazard Knowledge, Risk Perception and Preparedness in Southeast Bangladesh

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su12166305

This paper illustrates the application of the Delphi method, which assists in the production of social-ecological resilience indicators, and which are suitable for building the resilience of organic rice production in the central portion of Northeastern Thailand. Forty-seven adept farmers were purposively selected as participants, and the Delphi method was utilized as a tool by which the participants could reveal their different opinions and ideas. They were surveyed in order to visualize an organic rice system called the 'desirable system.' Nevertheless, such a system must be built simultaneously with certain components, the attributes of which can enable the system to withstand all kinds of change that can take place across spatial and temporal scales. The resilience literature, which is related to agro-ecological systems, had been published online during the seven previous years, and was applied to formulate questions, which were specifically aimed at establishing components that were focused upon coping and adaptive strategies. It was discovered that the inclusion of a group discussion, which had taken place with two rounds of the Delphi method, had provided a valuable means for exchanging information and responding with feedback. Given that the processes had been entirely conducted through group discussions, the voices of a few participants were, however, lost. They were dominated by the innate power expressed by other members within the group, especially the leaders. Despite this, the Delphi method was able to achieve an adequate degree of consensus among participants and was able to lead in the direction of building resilience with a significant level of confidence, which was capable of overcoming the social-ecological complexities of organic rice production. This was evidenced by the discovery of 21 social-ecological resilience indicators, which had been constructed by the engagement. Moreover, the indicators had indeed been reliable. With the support of the consensus of the participants' judgements, which were based on their actual contexts of organic rice production in the central portion of Northeastern Thailand, the indicators were able to be validated by statistical analyses, consisting of arithmetic means (x), standard deviations (sd), and interquartile ranges (R).

Panpakdee, C; Simaraks, S; Sookcharoen, C

Using the Delphi method to develop the social-ecological resilience indicators of organic rice production in Thailand

Forest And Society

https://doi.org/10.24259/fs.v6i1.14771

Climate change disproportionately impacts the world's poorest countries. A recent World Bank report highlighted that over 100 million people are at risk of falling into extreme poverty as a result of climate change. There is currently a lack of information about how to simultaneously address climate change and poverty. Climate change challenges provide an opportunity for those impacted most to come up with new and innovative technologies and solutions. This article uses an example from Mozambique where local and international partners are working side-by-side, to show how developing countries can simultaneously address climate change and poverty reduction using an ecosystem-based adaptation approach. Using ecosystem-based adaptation, a technique that uses the natural environment to help societies adapt to climate change, developing countries can lead the way to improve climate adaptation globally. This paradigm shift would help developing countries become leaders in ecosystem-based adaptation and green infrastructure techniques and has implications for climate policy worldwide. POLICY RELEVANCE The Paris Agreement resulting from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) in December 2015 was rightly lauded for its global commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions. However, COP 21 was also historic because of its call for non-party stakeholders to address climate change, inclusion of a global goal of 'enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability', and the United States' commitment of $800 million to adaptation funding. The combination of recognizing the need for new stakeholders to commit to climate change adaptation, the large impact climate change will have on the developing world, and providing access to funds for climate change adaptation creates a unique opportunity for developing countries to pave the way in adaptation policies in practices. Currently, developing countries are creating National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) for the UNFCCC. Through including a strong component of ecosystem-based adaptation in NAPs, developing countries can shape their countries' policies, improve local institutions and governments, and facilitate a new generation of innovative leaders. Lessons learned in places like Mozambique can help lead the way in other regions facing similar climatic risks.

Quinn, CF; Howard, JF; Chen, C; Coffee, JE; Quintela, CE; Parker, BA; Smith, JB

Adaptation and poverty reduction in Mozambique: an opportunity for developing countries to lead

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1258631

Bangladesh has been identified as one of the most susceptible countries to climate induced disasters. Geographical location of the country in the foothill of Himalayan system and in the mouth of north Bay of Bengal make it to experience frequent extreme environmental events such as flood, cyclone, draught, river erosion, sea level rise, salinity etc. The coastal region of Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate change and climate induced natural disasters. This study identifies the potential climate induced hazards, their vulnerability, capacity, associated risk and explores the potential strategies to reduce the disaster risk. This study was carried out in Uttar Bedkashi Union, Koyra Upazila under Khulna District in south west coastal region of Bangladesh. The information has been collected through individual level and key informant interview, focus group discussion, life history from local people to explore the context of the disaster risk and how they perceived it from their experiences. The study revealed that flooding as a result of high tide and salinity intrusion were the most prominent hazards followed by riverbank erosion and cyclone associated storm. Vulnerability assessment showed that cyclone associated storm surge was the major cause of vulnerabilities in the study area which followed by flooding and riverbank erosion. On the other hand, capacity assessment showed that community people have less capacity to deal with the multi-hazards risk. This study also revealed that riverbank erosion poses the highest risk in the study area followed by cyclone associated storm surge, flooding, and salinity intrusion. The study suggests some potential DRR strategy such as build disaster resilient house using indigenous and scientific knowledge, build or improve embankments, build or improve the communication roads, improve rain water harvesting system, provision of community-based health care center, create alternative and sustainable livelihood opportunity such as self-sustaining agriculture systems and further development of sustainable shrimp farming. The outcome of this study is expected to be useful for preparing an effective disaster risk mitigation plan by decision-makers. Further in-depth research on potential risk reduction options will be analyzed to measure efficiency and effectiveness.

Faisal, M; Saha, MK; Sattar, MA; Biswas, AKMAA; Hossain, MA

Evaluation of climate induced hazards risk for coastal Bangladesh: a participatory approach-based assessment

Geomatics Natural Hazards & Risk

https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2021.1967203

In Kenya, pastoralists have utilized natural grasslands using practices that often result in overgrazing, low productivity and low income. Such practices have caused environmental problems, which could be exacerbated by climate change. Although knowledge on practices that increase pastoralists' capacity to adapt to climate and environmental challenges is currently available, the adoption rate remains poor. Hence, there is growing interest in understanding how cross-scale inter-organizational collaboration process either facilitates or hinders climate knowledge communications to and uptake by pastoralists. This study used network analysis to identify how inter-organizational collaborations in knowledge production and dissemination shape knowledge flow and communication to pastoralists in Kenya. A knowledge mapping workshop, key informant interviews and questionnaire surveys were used to identify the key organizations involved in the generation, brokering, and dissemination of adaptation knowledge to pastoralists. Two networks of configurations were explored: (i) relations of collaboration in knowledge production and (ii) relations of collaboration in knowledge dissemination. Measure of clustering coefficient, density, core-periphery location, and degree centrality were used to analyze the network structure and cohesion, and its influence on knowledge flow and adoption. Findings revealed a strong integration across the network with research institutes, NGOs (Non-governmental organizations), and CBOs (Community based organizations) identified as among the central actors, based on their degree centrality. Further, we observed a higher density of ties among actors in the knowledge production network than the dissemination network. The lower density of the dissemination network indicates there are not that many activities by key organizations aimed at ensuring that knowledge reaches the users, compared to activities related to knowledge generation. This also results in poor feedback processes from local pastoralists to knowledge generators and brokers. Knowledge transfer and uptake could therefore be enhanced by improving dissemination activities and feedback mechanisms in the dissemination network as a means of capturing pastoralist perspectives on the relevance, reliability, and usability of knowledge for action. Reflection and revision can be used to improve knowledge so that it is more in sync with a pastoralist context.

Ofoegbu, C; New, MG; Staline, K

The Effect of Inter-Organisational Collaboration Networks on Climate Knowledge Flows and Communication to Pastoralists in Kenya

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su10114180

Coastal flooding has been a significant hazard in Hong Kong. Influenced by climate change, extreme coastal flooding events have been frequently observed in the past decades. Nowadays, the real estate sector has increasingly recognized the significance of managing future coastal flooding risks. However, there are few relevant Geographic Information System (GIS)-based assessment tools and studies about future scenarios. Against this background, this study aims to understand the risk and readiness of properties in Hong Kong for future coastal flooding and to reduce the gap in the risk management decision-making process. This study included the return period, sea level rise, tide activity, and storm surge as the main factors for estimating the frequency and magnitude of coastal flooding events. The estimation and other geospatial data were calculated to describe the exposure, hazard, and readiness of every building in Hong Kong. Based on this risk data of buildings, clustering analysis was adopted to create clusters representing different building risk profiles. The results highlight that there will be 16.3% and 24.7% of buildings in Hong Kong exposed to coastal flooding under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 8.5 and SSP 4.5, respectively, and 2.5% of them will have an extremely high hazard level. This study then constructed an indicator-based assessment model for the real estate sector regarding future coastal flooding risks. Classifying the buildings based on characteristics of their risk profile obtained eight clusters, with clusters 1 and 2 having high risk and low readiness, and clusters 7 and 8 having low risk and low to medium readiness. In addition, distinct spatial patterns were found between the clusters that have low and high readiness of green infrastructure. Therefore, recommendations for the policymaker, planner and companies were provided based on their local situation. Specifically, the discussion suggests that although Yuen Long is an area that has a relatively larger number of high-risk buildings, clusters 3 and 4 in Yuen Long have more potential for adopting various loss mitigation measures. However, clusters 5 and 6 in the city center are more recommended to adopt financial tools and small-scale nonstructural improvements.

Singh, M; Cai, X

Coastal Flooding Hazard, Exposure, and Readiness of Buildings in Hong Kong in 2080-2100, and the Implications for Real Estate Management

Isprs International Journal Of Geo-Information

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi12030086

This study evaluated the climate change vulnerability of Himalayan communities, and their potential to adapt to these changes, through assessing their perceived reactions and counter-actions to climate change. The evaluation was conducted through proposing and testing indices for vulnerability (Climate Vulnerability Index-CVI) and adaptation (Current Adaptive Capacity Index-CACI) based on the assumption that a community is an active dynamic entity and has tremendous capability to address the impacts of climate change through an ability to make adjustments based on perceived experiences. Both CVI and CACI include the five forms of capital leading to sustainable livelihood,i.e. human, natural, financial, social and physical capital, and were assessed for each of these forms of capital based on the IPCC framework of vulnerability assessment and its three dimensions (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity). Data for the analysis were collected from randomly selected households located away from district headquarters (ADH) and near district headquarters (NDH). Each dimension was measured based on associated socio-environment-specific indicators for assessing vulnerability and sustainability at community level. The results showed that ADH households had higher human capital and natural capital vulnerability than NDH households. In contrast, NDH households had higher social capital and financial capital vulnerability than ADH households. Overall, ADH households had greater vulnerability than NDH households. These results improve understanding of the environmental and socio-economic changes affecting rural livelihoods and the measures needed to address their specific vulnerabilities by addressing bottlenecks in education and training facilities for skill up-grading, increasing interaction opportunities through local functions and creating opportunities for income generation and effective market and farm linkages. An attempt was made to reduce the gap between bottom-up understanding and top-down policies by suggesting precautionary and ongoing adaptation practices for the communities studied, leading to effective and efficient addressal of vulnerabilities. Vulnerability in the study context was taken to mean externally driven change leading to disturbance in the human environment that could alter internal and external livelihood settings. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pandey, R; Jha, SK; Alatalo, JM; Archie, KM; Gupta, AK

Sustainable livelihood framework-based indicators for assessing climate change vulnerability and adaptation for Himalayan communities

Ecological Indicators

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.03.047

In this work, a sand and dust storm vulnerability mapping (SDS-VM) approach is developed to model the vulnerability of urban blocks to SDS using GIS spatial analysis and a range of geographical data. The SDSVM was carried out in Ahvaz, IRAN, representing one of the most dust-polluted cities in West Asia. Here, vulnerability is defined as a function of three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the people in the city blocks to sand and dust storms. These components were formulated into measurable indicators (i.e. GIS layers) including: PM2.5, wind speed, distance from dust emission sources, demographic statistics (age, gender, family size, education level), number of building floors, building age, land surface temperature (LST), land use, percentage of literate population, distance from health services, distance from city facilities (city center, shopping centers), distance from infrastructure (public transportation, main roads and highways), distance from parks and green spaces, and green area per capita. The components and the indicators were weighted using analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Different levels of risks for the components and the indicators were defined using ordered weighted averaging (OWA). Urban SDS vulnerability maps at different risk levels were generated through spatial multi criteria data analysis procedure. Vulnerability maps, with different risk levels, were validated against field-collected data of 781 patients hospitalized for dust-related diseases (i.e. respiratory, cardiovascular, and skin). Results showed that (i) SDS vulnerability map, obtained from the developed methodology, gives an overall accuracy of 79%; (ii); regions 1 and 5 of Ahvaz are recognized with the highest and lowest vulnerabilities to SDS, respectively; and (iii) ORness equal to 0 (very low risk) is the optimum SDS-VM risk level for decision-making to mitigate the harmful impacts of SDS in the deposition areas of Ahvaz city. (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Boloorani, AD; Shorabeh, SN; Samany, NN; Mousivand, A; Kazemi, Y; Jaafarzadeh, N; Zahedi, A; Rabiei, J

Vulnerability mapping and risk analysis of sand and dust storms in Ahvaz, IRAN

Environmental Pollution

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2021.116859

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a forward-looking case of climate change induced displacement in the Pacific Islands as a multidimensional phenomenon with a moral dimension. Instead of seeking to provide a definitive solution to an imagined problem, the authors have identified the complexity of the situation through an exploration of the accounts of place and accountability for the consequences of displacement. Design/methodology/approach The paper explores displacement from a sociological perspective. The authors use the sociology of worth (SOW) to anchor explicit and competing moral claims in an evaluation regime that considers questions of justice and the common good. The public accounts of place in the Pacific Islands provide the empirical material for a consideration of a situated crisis. While SOW is generally adopted for current crises or disputes, this study explores the pre-immigrant story and a future case of displacement. Bauman's (1998, 2012) perspective on globalization is used to narrate the local conditions of place in a global context as reflective of a dominant social order. Findings Since place is a multidimensional concept and experienced according to various states of being including physical, functional, spiritual and emotion or feeling, displacement is also felt at a multidimensional level. Thus to provide an account of a lived experience and to foster a moral accountability for climate induced displacement requires a consideration of multiple accounts and compromises that need to be considered. Research limitations/implications As with the majority of accounting research that is concerned with the suffering of those at a distance, we too must tackle this conundrum in a meaningful way. As members of a society that is the largest per capita emitter of greenhouse gas, how do we speak for our drowning neighbors? The paper concludes with some insights from Boltanski (1999) as a way forward. Originality/value The paper presents a forward-looking scenario of a looming crisis from a sociological perspective. It adds to the literature on alternative accounts by using stories, media, government reports and other sources to holistically build a narrative grounded in a current and imaged social order.

Perkiss, S; Moerman, L

A dispute in the making: A critical examination of displacement, climate change and the Pacific Islands

Accounting Auditing & Accountability Journal

https://doi.org/10.1108/AAAJ-06-2016-2582

This study uses past flood data in Australia and India in order to observe emerging patterns and trends to enhance prediction of flood hazards. The dataset comprises of 10 attributes and 348 flood instances (121 floods events in Australia and 227 floods events in India). Then two flood risk assessment metrics were used by previous research, is utilized to understand flood aspects such as: (i) severity class (associated with the frequency of flood) and (ii) magnitude (related to flood severity, flood duration and affected area of floods). The collected data from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory records is then compared and contrasted to the attributes derived and measured in raw data form. The 25th and 75th percentiles slightly show high values of flood severity class in Australian data 1-2 while in India 1-1.5. Similarly, values of magnitudes were also seen in Australian flood data reports as 5.2-6.6 while the flood Data of Indian was 5.4-6.5. Meanwhile, the highest mean values calculated were 25th-75th percentiles of low values of a number of fatalities (12.25-141.50) and a number of displaced people (0-151.5k) were shown in Indian floods whereas a number of fatalities (0-2) and a number of displaced people (0-525) were seen in Australian floods. This study has found a slight increase of trends during the 32-year period in the number of reported floods from Australia and India, which exceeds the severity class and magnitude thresholds. Henceforth, this study provides new evidence that supports the existing hypothesis that the earth is becoming more prone to natural hazards in recent times, possibly, due to climate change. Nevertheless, this study believes existing two flood risk assessment metrics (flood severity class and flood magnitude) can be improved by including annual flood increment rate for particular countries to the assessment criteria. The outcome of this analysis can be used for bias correction of flood prediction using theoretical or data driven models.

Halgamuge, MN; Nirmalathas, A

Analysis of large flood events: Based on flood data during 1985-2016 in Australia and India

International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.05.011

Featured Application This research was designed to understand the effects of fine scale sub-basin generation technique to assess the risk of flooding for wastewater treatment plants in New York City. The article identifies the total risk of flooding from multiple sources including extreme weather events, climate change, and high intensity rainfall. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the City of New York, United States, are particularly vulnerable to frequent extreme weather events, including storm surges, high-intensity rainfall, and sea level rise, and are also affected by the cascade of these events. The complex structural configuration of WWTPs requires very fine-scale flood risk assessment, which current research has not pursued. We propose a robust technique to quantify the risk of inundations for the fourteen WWPTs through an automated sub-basin creation tool; 889 sub-basins were generated and merged with high-resolution building footprint data to create a comprehensive database for flood inundation analysis. The inundation depths and extents for the WWTPs and flood-prone regions were identified from hydrodynamic modeling of storm surge and sea level rise. The economic damage due to flooding for the WWTPs was also quantified using the HAZUS-MH model. Results indicated that the storm surges from various categories of hurricanes have the dominant impacts on flood depths around WWTPs, followed by high-intensity rainfall. Sea level rise was shown to have a relatively minor impact on flood depths. Results from economic damage analysis showed that the WWTPs are subjected to damage ranging from USD 60,000 to 720,000, depending on the size of the WWTP and the extremity of storm surge. The method of analyzing the inundation status of the research object through the sub-basin enables more accurate data to be obtained when calculating the runoff. It allows for a clearer view of the inundation status of the WWTPs when combined with the actual buildings. Using this database, predicting flood conditions of any extreme event or a cascade of extreme events can be conducted quickly and accurately.

Sun, Q; Nazari, R; Karimi, M; Fahad, MGR; Peters, RW

Comprehensive Flood Risk Assessment for Wastewater Treatment Plants under Extreme Storm Events: A Case Study for New York City, United States

Applied Sciences-Basel

https://doi.org/10.3390/app11156694

Practitioners widely acknowledge the importance of including local and Indigenous knowledge in environmental research and decision-making. Nevertheless, it remains a challenge to achieve this integration in a meaningful way. The pilot study reported here was a necessary step toward developing improved methods for communicating local and Indigenous knowledge to decision-makers, with a focus on public sector practitioners as audience and visual content as medium. The proposed methodology extends previous research on climate change adaptation in the Alaskan Arctic, and it examines the effect of a reporting approach that introduces two components outside of general conventions in public sector information dissemination; (1) the application of context-rich images to help convey the social and cultural nuances of place-based information, and (2) multiple evidence base (MEB) reporting which engages information from both Western science and local/Indigenous knowledge systems. Context-rich images-defined here as detailed visuals that address the particularities of specific environments and cultures-are explored given their potential merits in expressing place-based concepts, such as social life and lived experience quickly and concisely when presented in tandem with text. With a focus on practical application, public sector conventions for reporting place-based information to decision-makers are investigated, including the benefits, and limitations associated with these conventions. Insights from both theory and practice informed the research methodology, and the design of a sample report and online questionnaire tested with upper-level public sector practitioners who have influence on environmental decision-making. Pilot study results indicated significant benefits of using context-rich images in addition to quotes about lived experience for reporting information about the local context and experience of Northern environmental changes. When presented alongside research from Western science, neither local observations in the form of quotes, nor context-rich images posed negative impacts on the perceived credibility of the report. The pilot study revealed the proposed methodology to be particularly beneficial for a target audience of practitioners who may lack expertise in the local context or field of research being reported. Additionally, several potential improvements to the content and design of research materials were identified for the benefit of future studies.

Curry, T; Lopez, EDS

Images as Information: Context-Rich Images and the Communication of Place-Based Information Through Increased Representation in Environmental Governance

Frontiers In Communication

https://doi.org/10.3389/fcomm.2020.00043

Climate change and increasing urbanization pose huge challenges in managing urban planning for a sustainable future. Intense urbanization resulting in the so-called mega cites aggravates floods by increasing the amount of impermeable surfaces and modifying flow routes. Statistics show that flood disasters are one of the most significant in terms of damages and losses. Urbanization rates are increasing rapidly and it is important to learn how to live with floods by alleviating their consequences, in the present and future. This concern points to the resilience concept. By including the concept of resilience in flood risk analysis and decision-making, urban drainage design moves towards sustainable drainage systems. This study discusses resilience in the flood risk contextWe considered three main drivers to define a quantitative measure of flood resilience: the capability of a drainage system to resist and provide its service continuously over time; the capability of an urban area to recover from flood losses; and the capability of urban systems to evacuate floodwaters and return to a functional state. Consequently, this paper describes how flood resilience can be modeled and spatialized by a multi-criteria index called Spatialized Urban Flood Resilience Index (S-FRESI). The S-FRESI composition (according to the resilience definition adopted) combines: the hazard characteristics and the system exposure and susceptibility, to represent flood resistance mapped over time; the ability for material recovery from losses caused by inundation, considering the income variable; and the functional capacity of the drainage system, represented by the flood duration. S-FRESI can be used to measure and visualize the changes in flood resilience attained by different flood control measures, as well as in future scenarios of population growth, uncontrolled urbanization or climate change. The index was tested with coherent and consistent results in the Dona Eugenia river catchment in Rio de Janeiro. Four different scenarios were formulated: (1) the current situation; (2) the current situation considering the implementation of sustainable flood control measures; (3) a future situation with the same infrastructure as today; and (4) a future situation with the considered flood control measures.

Bertilsson, L; Wiklund, K; Tebaldi, ID; Rezende, OM; Veról, AP; Miguez, MG

Urban flood resilience - A multi-criteria index to integrate flood resilience into urban planning

Journal Of Hydrology

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.06.052

Knowledge of climate patterns and associated risks is relevant to making planning and resource management decisions at the urban scale. However, available scientific climate information is often poorly suited to decision making needs. New ways of producing knowledge, both about the climate and urban decision-making, are required to address this disconnect. Transdisciplinarity aims to span the boundaries between scientific research, policymaking and practice to tackle complex problems, including those of urban sustainability and climate change. This paper focuses on the role that intermediaries play in spanning disciplinary, organizational and sectoral boundaries to facilitate collaborative problem-solving and mutual learning to connect knowledge with action. It presents empirical findings of how embedded researchers facilitate the co-production of knowledge on climate-sensitive urban public policy and planning decisions based on the experiences of seven embedded researchers operating in six Southern African cities - Lusaka (Zambia), Maputo (Mozambique), Windhoek (Namibia), Harare (Zimbabwe), Durban and Cape Town (South Africa). Data from the activities, outputs and experiences of these embedded researchers, documented in monthly reports during their tenure in the period 2015 to 2019, were coded for four aspects of transdisciplinary boundary spanning identified in existing literature, namely: trust-based relationships; collaborative agenda-setting and combining different knowledges; promoting reflexivity and innovation; and navigating multiple accountabilities. The analysis reveals that embedded researchers play a key role in supporting other researchers better understand and navigate the policy and practice domain. It also highlights the challenges that embedded researcher face when transitioning out of the role. The paper concludes that creating the inter-organizational agreements to co-host an embedded researcher, and allocating finances, time, intellectual and emotional support to the embedded researchers to effectively span boundaries, can be an effective way to promote the transdisciplinary collaboration needed to tackle climate risks in cities. Furthermore, it suggests that having embedded researchers operating within a cohort of peers, enhances their reflexivity, learning and thereby effectiveness as intermediaries.

Taylor, A; Pretorius, L; McClure, A; Iipinge, KN; Mwalukanga, B; Mamombe, R

Embedded researchers as transdisciplinary boundary spanners strengthening urban climate resilience

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.10.002

Improving the climate resilience of urban areas critically depends on the integration of climate adaptation measures, i.e. mainstreaming, into regular construction practices. As research has largely focused on public sector adaptation, the mainstreaming of adaptation into private sector projects remains poorly understood. The aims of this study are twofold. First, we examine what drives private developers and investors to mainstream adaptation into large-scale urban development projects. Second, we explore what policy instruments municipalities can employ to stimulate private sector mainstreaming. Our theoretical lens combines insights from the literature on mainstreaming, sustainable building drivers and policy instruments. These concepts are used to guide our analysis of four urban development projects and an interview study in the Netherlands, a densely populated delta country which is rather vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Our results show that private developers and investors seldom explicitly include adaptation measures into their development projects. An important impediment is the perceived absence of direct monetary benefits. If adaptation measures are implemented, they are often realized as a side-effect of creating a high-quality living environment or because private actors expect other professional benefits, such as corporate image enhancement or development of know-how. To stimulate private sector mainstreaming, Dutch municipalities already use a mix of policy instruments that might be a source of inspiration for other countries. Yet, especially the way in which enforcement and incentives are applied is not always effective. Key policy insights Despite the private sector's growing awareness about the need for and importance of climate change adaptation in the Netherlands, adaptation is still seldom explicitly included in large-scale urban development projects. Municipalities should invest in policy instruments that target consumers. Communication, education and incentives can be used to raise consumer awareness and consequently demand for climate-adaptive properties. Municipalities should collaborate with the private sector to develop clear, uniform and feasible adaptation requirements. Municipalities should actively participate in urban development projects, i.e. co-developing with the private sector. This way, private sector drivers and policy instruments can strengthen each other to pave the way for future-proof and climate-resilient urban environments.

ten Brinke, N; Vinke-de Kruijf, J; Volker, L; Prins, N

Mainstreaming climate adaptation into urban development projects in the Netherlands: private sector drivers and municipal policy instruments

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2111293

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is a suggested pathway to the improvement of food security in a changing climate. The Department of Agricultural Extension under the Bangladesh Ministry of Agriculture has been promoting CSA with farmers through climate field schools since 2010. This study investigated the impact of adoption of CSA practices on the household food security of coastal farmers in southern Bangladesh. Factors determining household food security were also explored. Data were collected from 118 randomly selected farmers of Kalapara sub-district in Patuakhali, Bangladesh. We identified 17 CSA practices that were adopted by the farmers in the study area. Those practices were saline-tolerant crop varieties, flood-tolerant crop varieties, drought-resistant crop varieties, early maturing rice, vegetables in a floating bed, 'sorjan' method of farming, pond-side vegetable cultivation, the cultivation of watermelon, sunflower or plum, relay cropping, urea deep placement, organic fertilizer, mulching, use of pheromone trap, rain water harvesting and seed storage in plastic bags or glass bottles. The farmers adopted on average seven out of these CSA practices. Among the sampled households, 32% were assessed as food secure, 51% were mildly to moderately food insecure and 17% were severely food insecure. Adoption of CSA practices was positively associated with household food security in terms of per capita annual food expenditure (beta = 1.48 Euro, p = 0.015). Households with a better educational level, farming as a major occupation, a larger pond size, greater number of cattle, higher household income, smaller family size and less difficulty with access to markets were likely to be more food secure. Increasing the adoption of CSA was important to enhance food security but not a sufficient condition since other characteristics of the farmers (personal education, pond size, cattle ownership and market difficulty) had large effects on food security. Nevertheless, increased adoption of saline-tolerant and flood-tolerant crop varieties, pond-side vegetable cultivation and rainwater harvesting for irrigation could further improve the food security of coastal farmers in southern Bangladesh.

Hasan, MK; Desiere, S; D'Haese, M; Kumar, L

Impact of climate-smart agriculture adoption on the food security of coastal farmers in Bangladesh

Food Security

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-018-0824-1

This research reviews climate change, flood disasters impacts and food security nexus in northern Ghana. The impacts of climate change include flood disasters which in turn affect food production with subsequent impact on food security. While climate change impact can be positive in some regions, it can be negative in other regions as it could lead to excess or lack of water, which negatively affects food production. Most especially, flood disasters have reportedly become frequent with devastating consequences on food production. Literature further suggests that the frequency of floods and their impacts have the potential to increase in the future. Floods inundate farms, pastures and livestock, which could subsequently reduce crop yields and animal production. Floods also destroys physical infrastructure and disrupts socio-economic activities which are linked to agriculture sector and could affect food production. This eventually decreases food availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability in the region. Northern Ghana has experienced flood disasters with increased frequency, which are related to climate change impacts. Although there is research on climate change, flood disasters, and food security issues in northern Ghana, the literature thus far indicates no clear focus of studies that focuses on the nexus of climate change, flood disasters, and food security of the study site. Thus, this research seeks to review the nexus of climate change, and flood disaster impacts on food security in northern Ghana with their implications on food security in the region. This study has two main research objectives. The first objective of this research is to identify and understand the potential impacts of climate change and flood disasters on food production in the study site. The second research objective is to explain the connection between climate change and flood disasters and the implications of this relationship on food security in the study site. This review study focuses on climate change, flood disasters, and food production to understand the critical impacts of climate change and flood disasters on food security in the northern part of Ghana. The aim of this research is to contribute to literature and discussion of the nexus of climate change, flood disaster impacts and food security sub-Saharan Africa.

Atanga, RA; Tankpa, V

Climate Change, Flood Disaster Risk and Food Security Nexus in Northern Ghana

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.706721

In India, there is a need for field survey-based vulnerability studies to overcome the uncertainties that exist in regional model-based climate vulnerability assessments. Therefore, the present study explored the regional patterns and their associated determinant factors of climate change vulnerability in the Himalayan Foothills of West Bengal to determine which regions are more vulnerable in the same geographical space. The research was conducted in the 13 Community Development Blocks (CD Blocks) of the Himalayan Foothills of West Bengal, India. The Socio-Economic Vulnerability Index (SEVI) was proposed to fulfill the above objectives. The present SEVI was comprised of seven subdimensions of climate change vulnerability: namely, climate variability, natural disaster risk, socio-demographic profile, livelihood strategy, environment profile, livelihood security, and accessibility of basic infrastructure covering three major vulnerability components, exposure, adaptive capacity, and sensitivity. The primary field survey was conducted using a structured questionnaire for data collection comprised of 22 indicators covering seven significant dimensions. The results suggest that Alipurduar-II, Jalpaiguri, and Mal, which are highly exposed to climate variability and natural disaster risk at the same time, have low adaptive capacities. The livelihood strategy, socio-demographic, and environmental profile were the determining factors of regional vulnerability in the study area. The CD blocks Falakata, Dhupguri, and Rajganj showed a higher adaptive capacity and were less sensitive to climate change vulnerability, even though exposure to climate change was the same in the entire area. The survey findings indicate that adaptive capacity is high in Falakata and Rajganj and these areas are less susceptible to climate change vulnerability. Finally, the appropriate recommendation is to develop a basic physical infrastructure, including bridges over the rivers and concrete village roads in all the flood-prone villages in the entire Himalayan Foothills of West Bengal for better connectivity. Also, household food availability should be secured through public distribution systems that develop the coping capacity of the region as a whole.

Ghosh, M; Ghosal, S

Geographies of vulnerability to climate change: empirical evidences from the Indian Himalayan foothills

Asia-Pacific Journal Of Regional Science

https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-022-00273-4

PurposeThis research investigated Australian property valuers' identification and consideration of physical climate change risks in valuation practice.Design/methodology/approachThirty Australian valuer members of the Australian Property Institute from a variety of specialisations were interviewed. The semi-structured interviews explored climate change risks and the extent of risk investigation and consideration in valuation practice. The analysis utilised the Moser and Luers (2008) climate risk preparedness framework as a lens to evaluate current valuation practice in Australia.FindingsThe analysis reflects that while physical risks are easily identified and engaged with by valuers, correspondingly, there is a lack of understanding of and engagement with, climate change risks. This supports the need for better information sources and guidance to inform valuers of climate change risks and the development of specific mechanisms for the consideration of such risks to be included in valuation processes, practices and reports.Research limitations/implicationsThe research was limited by its sample size and qualitative approach. Therefore, the research is not a representative opinion of the Australian profession; however, the analysis provides the perspective of a range of valuers from across Australia with different valuation specialisations.Practical implicationsThis research has established that valuers have the potential to be prepared to address climate change in their professional capacity, as described by Moser and Luers (2008). However, they are constrained by information communication, access and detail and subsequent market awareness of information on climate change risk exposure on properties. There is a need for further support, guidance, information and tools, as well as awareness-raising, to enable valuers to accurately identify and reflect all risks affecting a property in the process of valuation.Originality/valueThis research provides the first investigation into the consideration of climate change in valuation practice. Property stakeholders-owners, investors, financiers and occupiers-are escalating their climate change risk analysis and reporting for property portfolios and organisations. This research suggests that valuers also need to be aware of the changing dynamics of market reporting and decision-making related to climate change risks to ensure appropriate reflection in valuation practice.

Warren-Myers, G; Cradduck, L

Tackling the wicked challenge of climate change risks to property: are Australian valuers prepared?

Journal Of Property Investment & Finance

https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-12-2022-0090

Environmental management strategies aim to protect or repair ecological assets (ecosystems, species) so that their ecological and social values can be preserved. However, creating an effective strategy is difficult because multiple government departments are involved and because water and land use legislation and policy instruments are often fragmented. A key obstacle that is often overlooked is the spatial mismatch between ecological processes and institutional organisation (i.e., legislative framework and government departments). Successful management depends on the ability to cultivate resilient ecosystems through institutional reforms that take into account the complexity of ecosystems while supporting cross-sectoral and scale-dependent decision-making within the science-policy interface. Here, we use a case study approach to illustrate how collective strategic decisions can be made to manage a valued ecosystem situated within an urban matrix. We used a three-step framework to guide our approach and commenced by identifying a range of adaptation measures (i.e., management interventions) and the actors responsible. For each adaptation measure, we then investigated (i) mismatches among ecosystem and institution scales and levels; (ii) institutional barriers; and (iii) the role of actors in decision making. We use this information to identify decision pathways': i.e., a flexible decision-making platform that assists stakeholders to make strategic short- and long-term decisions. Key insights included the discussion of policy and practical experiences for ecosystem management at different levels and the necessary conditions to provide better alignment between jurisdictional an ecosystem scale to guide decision makers accordingly. We detail the institutional and jurisdictional changes that must be implemented across all levels of governance to protect and support the resilience of environmental assets. Short-term' decision pathways were preferred among actors and cross-level cooperation at jurisdictional level provided an adequate fit with the ecosystem scale. Long-term' decisions require substantial change of the institutional framework to enable the implementation of adaptive management. Although challenges at institutional and jurisdictional scales remain, decision pathways promote adaptive ecosystem management through a better fit of jurisdictional and institutional roles/policy and ecosystem-scale processes.

Nanda, AVV; Rijke, J; Beesley, L; Gersonius, B; Hipsey, MR; Ghadouani, A

Matching Ecosystem Functions with Adaptive Ecosystem Management: Decision Pathways to Overcome Institutional Barriers

Water

https://doi.org/10.3390/w10060672

Large changes have taken place in smallholder farming systems in South Asia's coastal areas in recent decades, particularly related to cropping intensity, input availability, climate risks, and off-farm activities. However, few studies have investigated the extent to which these changes have impacted farm-level crop productivity, which is a key driver of food security and poverty in rainfed, low-input, rice-based systems. The objective of this study was to conduct an integrated assessment of variables related to socioeconomic status, farm characteristics, and crop management practices to understand the major factors influencing crop productivity and identify promising leverage points for sustainable development in coastal Bangladesh. Using a panel survey dataset of 32 variables from 502 farm households located within polder (coastal embankment) and outside polder systems during 2005-2015, we employed statistical factor analysis to characterize five independent latent factors named here as Farming Challenges, Economic Status, Crop Management Practices, Asset Endowment, and Farm Characteristics. The factor Farming Challenges explained the most variation among households (31%), with decreases observed over time, specifically households located outside polders. Individual variables contributing to this factor included perceived cyclone severity, household distance to main roads and input-output markets, cropping intensity, and access to extension services. The most important factors for increasing crop productivity on a household and per unit area basis were Asset Endowment and Crop Management Practices, respectively. The former highlights the need for increasing gross cropped area, which can be achieved through greater cropping intensity, while the latter was associated with increased fertilizer, labor, and pesticide input use. Despite the importance of these factors, household poverty trajectory maps showed that changes in off-farm income had played the strongest role in improving livelihoods in this coastal area. This study can help inform development efforts and policies for boosting farm-level crop productivity, specifically through agricultural intensification (higher cropping intensity combined with appropriate and efficient use of inputs) and expanding opportunities for off-farm income as key pathways to bring smallholder households out of poverty.

Emran, SA; Krupnik, TJ; Aravindakshan, S; Kumar, V; Pittelkow, CM

Factors contributing to farm-level productivity and household income generation in coastal Bangladesh's rice-based farming systems

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256694

Extreme weather events including flooding can have severe personal, infrastructural, and economic consequences, with recent evidence pointing to surface flooding as a pathway for the microbial contamination of private groundwater supplies. There is a pressing need for increasingly focused information and awareness campaigns to highlight the risks posed by extreme weather events and appropriate subsequent post-event actions. To date, little is known about the presence, directionality or magnitude of gender-related differences regarding flood risk awareness and behaviour among private groundwater users, a particularly susceptible sub-population due to an overarching paucity of infrastructural regulation across many regions. The current study investigated gender-related differences in flood risk perception and associated mitigation behaviours via a cross-sectional, national survey of 405 (168 female, 237 male) private groundwater supply users. The developed survey instrument assessed socio-demographic profile, previous flood experience, experiential and conjectural health behaviours (contingent on previous experience), and Risk, Attitude, Norms, Ability, Self-regulation (RANAS) framework questions. Statistically significant gender differences were found between both 'Norm-Descriptive' and 'Ability-Self-efficacy' RANAS elements (p < 0.05). Female respondents reported a lower level of awareness of the need for post-flood action(s) (8.9% vs. 16.5%), alongside a perceived lack of information as a reason for not testing their domestic well (4.9% vs. 11.5%). Conversely, male respondents were more likely to report awareness of their well location in relation to possible contamination sources (96.6% vs. 89.9%) and awareness of previous water testing results (98.9% vs. 93.0%). Gender-related gaps exist within the studied private groundwater reliant cohort, a sub-population which has to date remained under-studied within the context of climate change and extreme weather events. Accordingly, findings suggest that gender-focused communication and education may represent an effective tool for protecting current and future generations of global groundwater users.

McDowell, CP; Andrade, L; O'Neill, E; O'Malley, K; O'Dwyer, J; Hynds, PD

Gender-Related Differences in Flood Risk Perception and Behaviours among Private Groundwater Users in the Republic of Ireland

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17062072

Acting in advance of floods, drought and cyclones often requires decision-makers to work with weather forecasts. The inherently probabilistic nature of these forecasts can be problematic when deciding whether to act or not. Cost-loss analysis has previously been employed to support forecast based decision-making such as Forecast-based Financing (FbF), providing insight to when an FbF system has 'potential economic value' relative to a no-forecast alternative. One well-known limitation of cost-loss analysis is the difficulty of estimating losses (which vary with hazard magnitude and extent, and with the dynamics of population vulnerability and exposure). A less-explored limitation is ignorance of the temporal dynamics (sequencing) of costs and losses. That is, even if the potential economic value of a forecast system is high, the stochastic nature of the atmosphere and the probabilistic nature of forecasts could conspire over the first few forecasts to increase the expense of using the system over the no-forecast alternative. Thus, for a forecast-based action system to demonstrate value, it often needs to be used over a prolonged length of time. However, knowing exactly how long it must be used to guarantee value is unquantified. This presents difficulties to institutions mandated to protect those at risk, who must justify the use of limited funds to act in advance of a potential, but not definite disaster, whilst planning multi-year strategies. Here we show how to determine the period over which decision makers must use forecasts in order to be confident of achieving 'value' over a no-forecast alternative. Results show that in the context of seasonal forecasting it is plausible that more than a decade may pass before a FbF system will have some certainty of showing value, and that if a particular user requires an almost-certain guarantee that using a forecast will be better than a no-forecast strategy, they must hold out until a near-perfect forecast system is available. The implication: there is potential value in seasonal forecasts, but to exploit it one must be prepared to play the long game.

MacLeod, D; Kniveton, DR; Todd, MC

Playing the long game: Anticipatory action based on seasonal forecasts

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375

Purpose - This paper aims to present a critical review of some literature on climate change and migration through conceptualizing and contextualizing the linkages between the two topics. Much literature on links between climate change and migration tends to downplay ambiguities in the terms and the limited empirical evidence. Conceptualizing refers to the knowledge gaps and the need to understand and detail (even if not agreeing on) conceptual issues such as terminology, definitions, linkages, drivers, thresholds, implications, data requirements and methodologies. Contextualizing refers to understanding the climate change and migration debate within wider topical and geographical contexts. Results identify major qualitative and quantitative gaps. Qualitatively, limited material exists on why people react differently to similar environmental stressors and why certain outcomes may arise. Quantitatively, credible and verifiable measures are not always available for assessing the climate change impacts on migration. This paper recommends a stratified, multi-disciplinary approach to facilitate policies regarding climate change and migration connections. Design/methodology/approach - Illustrative literature review, clustering important themes found in published research and policy documents. First, qualitative aspects are covered, particularly in terms of definitions and terminology. Second, quantitative aspects are detailed, particularly in terms of data available and estimates made. Further, the paper is organized around two distinct areas, i.e. conceptualizing and contextualizing climate change and migration links. Findings - Results identify major qualitative and quantitative gaps. Qualitatively, limited material exists on why people react differently to similar environmental stressors and why certain outcomes may arise. Quantitatively, credible and verifiable measures are not always available for assessing the climate change impacts on migration. This paper recommends a stratified, multi-disciplinary approach to facilitate policies regarding climate change and migration connections. Originality/value - Without being comprehensive in the literature covered, this paper provided a critical overview and synthesis of climate change and migration work through the lens of conceptualization and contextualization. Major gaps in the literature were identified through an illustrative, not complete, review. Qualitative and quantitative aspects were covered including definitions, terminology, data available and estimates being made.

Upadhyay, H; Kelman, I; Lingaraj, GJ; Mishra, A; Shreve, C; Stojanov, R

Conceptualizing and contextualizing research and policy for links between climate change and migration

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2014-0058

The aim of this paper was to determine the mechanisms of climate change impact on the yield of the main export-oriented crops in the agro-climatic zones of Ukraine. The study of the problem of changing the acreage of the main export-oriented crops was conducted according to the data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on the time horizon 2000-2018 in the following order: first, the dynamics of the change of the acreage under corn, sunflower and wheat by the agro-climatic zones of Ukraine was analyzed; secondly, the trends of yield changes of these crops were investigated based on the increase in the difference in yields between the northern and southern zones; and, finally, the temporal and spatial expansion in the area of crop propagation were investigated by applying the panel regression method. The findings obtained indicate that the applied models confirm the assumption of the effects of climate change on crop yield changes and the zones expansion in the northern direction. If the country's wheat area can be considered stable (variation is insignificant), then the corn and sunflower areas have grown steadily under the influence of increasing demand from national and world markets. At the same time, the growing acreage under corn and sunflower occurred in all climatic zones. Stable expansion of corn crops in the north direction in all three agro-climatic zones of Ukraine has been statistically confirmed. The article presents the findings of empirical analysis, which confirm that if the boundaries of soil and climatic zones change, the conditions of growing crops and their yield will consequently change as well. Thus, based on current global forecasts, the impact of weather on Ukraine's agriculture will increase, and the most negative effects can be expected in the Steppe zone, where the likelihood of weather and climate risks increases, requiring the development of adaptation and mitigation measures as well as exploitation of new potential opportunities that are being opened. Studies have shown that there is an expansion in crops to the north and a change in their pattern, including a significant increase in the area under corn.

Skrypnyk, A; Zhemoyda, O; Klymenko, N; Galaieva, L; Koval, T

Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on the Sustainability of Agricultural Production in Ukraine

Journal Of Ecological Engineering

https://doi.org/10.12911/22998993/132945

Coastal development is spreading along the World's coasts. Sea levels are rising, so major future asset losses are expected. Planned retreat from the sea behind natural ecological defences is one adaptation option. To maintain it, land could he set aside for colonisation by coastal ecosystems, or buildings constructed on condition they are removed when sea level reaches a specified distance from the building. Similarities among coastal issues in high-income countries encouraged us to produce a generalisable analytical framework for exploring planned retreat. We applied it to South East Queensland, Australia, where the option of planned retreat is disappearing because (1) State Government promotes population increase; (2) the need to provide places for naturally protective coastal ecosystems to occupy does not seem urgent, so houses are built there; (3) liability laws favour development; (4) planning ignores cumulative impacts, the path dependent nature of development and irreversible social-ecological threshold changes; (5) political pressure to build defences grows as the value of built assets increases. To implement planned retreat, changes to coastal governance would be needed, for which we propose five guiding principles: (a) allocate authority and resources between levels of governance according to their effectiveness at each level (b) strengthen development rules and incentives to relocate as an unwanted threshold is approached; (c) allow for uncertainties by enabling rules and incentives to be changed when circumstances change; (d) reassign public and private benefits, costs, risks, uncertainties and responsibilities from governments to beneficiaries of development; (e) institutionalise catastrophes as opportunities for change, not signals to rebuild. Following from this research, one of our next the priorities is the psychology of social change, uncertainty, rights, obligations, incentives and trust. The other is to extend and deepen understanding of the responses of developers, barkers, insurers, house buyers, sellers and owners to changes in development rules and incentives. Crown Copyright (c) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abel, N; Gorddard, R; Harman, B; Leitch, A; Langridge, J; Ryan, A; Heyenga, S

Sea level rise, coastal development and planned retreat: analytical framework, governance principles and an Australian case study

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2010.12.002

Delivering infrastructure, resilient to multiple natural hazards and climate change, is fundamental to continued economic prosperity and social coherence. This is a strategic priority of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), public policies and global initiatives. The operability and functionality of critical infrastructure are continuously challenged by multiple stressors, increasing demands and ageing, whilst their interconnectedness and dependencies pose addi-tional challenges. Emerging and disruptive digital technologies have the potential to enhance climate resilience of critical infrastructure, by providing rapid and accurate assessment of asset condition and support decision-making and adaptation. In this pursuit, it is imperative to adopt multidisciplinary roadmaps and deploy computational, communication and other digital tech-nologies, tools and monitoring systems. Nevertheless, the potential of these emerging technolo-gies remains largely unexploited, as there is a lack of consensus, integrated approaches and legislation in support of their use. In this perspective paper, we discuss the main challenges and enablers of climate-resilient infrastructure and we identify how available roadmaps, tools and emerging digital technologies, e.g. Internet of Things, digital twins, point clouds, Artificial In-telligence, Building Information Modelling, can be placed at the service of a safer world. We show how digital technologies will lead to infrastructure of enhanced resilience, by delivering efficient and reliable decision-making, in a proactive and/or reactive manner, prior, during and after hazard occurrences. In this respect, we discuss how emerging technologies significantly reduce the uncertainties in all phases of infrastructure resilience evaluations. Thus, building climate-resilient infrastructure, aided by digital technologies, will underpin critical activities globally, contribute to Net Zero target and hence safeguard our societies and economies. To achieve this we set an agenda, which is aligned with the relevant SDGs and highlights the urgent need to deliver holistic and inclusive standards and legislation, supported by coordinated alliances, to fully utilise emerging digital technologies.

Argyroudis, SA; Mitoulis, SA; Chatzi, EW; Baker, JW; Brilakis, I; Gkoumas, K; Vousdoukas, M; Hynes, W; Carluccio, S; Keou, O; Frangopol, DM; Linkov, I

Digital technologies can enhance climate resilience of critical infrastructure

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100387

Climate change impacts increase pressure on challenges to sustainability and the developmental needs of cities. Conventional, hard adaptation measures are often associated with high costs, inflexibility and conflicting interests related to the dense urban fabric, and ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) has emerged as a potentially cost-efficient, comprehensive, and multifunctional approach. This paper reviews and systematises research on urban EbA. We propose an analytical framework that draws on theory from ecosystem services, climate change adaptation and sustainability science. It conceptualises EbA in terms of five linked components: ecological structures, ecological functions, adaptation benefits, valuation, and ecosystem management practices. Our review identified 110 articles, reporting on 112 cities, and analysed them using both quantitative statistical and qualitative content analysis. We found that EbA research in an urban context is fragmented due to different disciplinary approaches and concepts. Most articles focus on heat or flooding, and the most studied ecological structures for reducing the risk of such hazards are green space, wetlands, trees and parks. EbA is usually evaluated in bio-geophysical terms and the use of economic or social valuations are rare. While most articles do not mention specific practices for managing ecological structures, those that do imply that urban EbA strategies are increasingly being integrated into institutional structures. Few articles considered issues of equity or stakeholder participation in EbA. We identified the following challenges for future EbA research. First, while the large amount of data generated by isolated case studies contributes to systems knowledge, there is a lack of systems perspectives that position EbA in relation to the wider socio-economic and bio-geophysical context. Second, normative and ethical aspects of EbA require more thought, such as who are the winners and losers, especially in relation to processes that put people at risk from climate-related hazards. Third, there is room for more forward-looking EbA research, including consideration of future scenarios, experimentation in the creation of new ecological structures and the role of EbA in transformative adaptation. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brink, E; Aalders, T; Adám, D; Feller, R; Henselek, Y; Hoffmann, A; Ibe, K; Matthey-Doret, A; Meyer, M; Negrut, NL; Rau, AL; Riewerts, B; von Schuckmann, L; Törnros, S; von Wehrden, H; Abson, DJ; Wamsler, C

Cascades of green: A review of ecosystem-based adaptation in urban areas

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.11.003

Local governments have a vital climate change adaptation role. However, major breakdowns in the ability of local governments to mainstream adaptation responses have been widely observed. Using a Systematic Quantitative Literature Review method, we assessed 131 original research articles published 2005-2020 to answer three key questions: What trends are evident in the global literature that explain adaptation mainstreaming efforts in municipal policy and practice? What factors are conceptualized as shaping adaptation mainstreaming in local government? Which elements can be considered key to advancing adaptation mainstreaming in municipal policy and practice?We find two overarching factors affect outcomes - authority to adapt and capacity to adapt. Authority to adapt refers to the authorizing environment - or mandate - from national or sub-national government, or from local government leaders, for adaptation action by a municipal administration. Capacity to adapt refers to access to resources, professional networks, and supportive organizational systems and culture, that enable local government adaptation. We find lack of support from local government elected leaders is the most frequently identified barrier to municipal adaptation. Yet, few empirical studies offer deep insight into the factors that inform and influence leadership support for municipal adaptation. Further, we find local government capacity to adapt is largely treated as a singular capacity, held constant throughout the policy cycle. We find limited exploration of the capacities vital to each stage of the policy cycle and the configuration of factors that support adaptation outcomes. We devise a conceptual framework explaining how issues of authority and capacity can interact and influence each other and what they encompass. Such a framework has broader utility for policy development and importantly for implementation at the local level.Key policy insightsMunicipal adaptation can be strengthened through expanded understanding of, and attention to, the factors that inform local leaders' decisions on adaptation, notably clustered around authority and capacity to adapt.Policymakers are encouraged to actively consider the differing capacities needed to progress adaptation through each stage of the policy cycle.Using an implementation lens to evaluate adaptation practice could support documentation of planning-to-implementation gaps and ways of bridging these gaps for enhanced municipal adaptation outcomes.

Rogers, NJL; Adams, VM; Byrne, JA

Factors affecting the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation in municipal policy and practice: a systematic review

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2208098

Nature-based solutions (NbS) contrast with grey infrastructure measures to reduce risk from natural hazards. Using natural and sustainable measures (green) or combining green with grey elements (hybrid) can provide important co-benefits beyond risk reduction. Thanks to their co-benefits and flexibility across a range of possible climate change futures, NbS are sometimes referred to as 'win-win' or 'no-regret' measures. The success of NbS and associated projects often relies on the public for co-creation, co-implementation, and long-term sustainable use, monitoring, and management. However, the relative importance of NbS benefits is defined by the percep-tions and underlying values of stakeholders with potentially divergent interests. It is unclear what measures at-risk individuals may prefer on the green-hybrid-grey spectrum and what shapes their preferences, including perceived benefits and potential regret. Identifying public (mis)perceptions, ex-pectations, objectives, and what underlies these can inform communication and project framing, engagement, and ultimately increase public acceptance and continued uptake of NbS. We use citizen surveys at three distinct European sites where NbS are being planned and in-depth focus groups as a follow-up in the site at risk of landslides (Catterline, Scotland). Preferences and their drivers for measures on the green-hybrid-grey spectrum are assessed, focusing on public perceptions of NbS effectiveness, risk, and nature. We find that although wildlife habitat and aesthetics as co-benefits are important, reducing risk is of primary concern. Uncertainty in the strength and effectiveness of NbS, as one of 13 qualitative factors we identify, drives public preferences towards hybrid measures -seen as balancing green and grey trade-offs. Misperceptions and a demand for NbS information should be addressed with experiential learning, combined with transparent two-way communication of expectations. We urge caution and further research regarding emphasizing co-benefits and the 'natural' framing of NbS when risk reduction is the primary public objective.

Anderson, CC; Renaud, FG; Hanscomb, S; Gonzalez-Ollauri, A

Green, hybrid, or grey disaster risk reduction measures: What shapes public preferences for nature-based solutions?

Journal Of Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114727

Efforts to achieve coordinated, effective, and impactful adaptation outcomes are complicated by factors ranging from the local specificity of adaptation needs to the challenges of politics and prioritization that drive funding decisions. However, these and other challenges are perpetuated and exacerbated by poorly constructed, often implicit, and generally institution- or contextspecific impact pathways connecting policy/institutional priorities through their materialization in specific actions to their intended outcomes. We call these impact pathways adaptation rationales, as they represent the logic of an adaptation action. The implicit nature of most current adaptation rationales makes it difficult to identify and test the accuracy and veracity of claims and assumptions underlying everything from policy priorities to intervention selection. In this article, we address this foundational challenge for the adaptation community of practice by proposing a typology of adaptation benefits (reduced exposure, reduced sensitivity, and increased adaptive capacity) that facilitates the construction of meaningful, transparent adaptation rationales. We lay out what these well-understood components of vulnerability mean in the context of adaptation benefits and provide guiding questions for their use in constructing adaptation rationales. Using hypothetical and real-world examples of projects and portfolios, we illustrate how this typology and the adaptation rationales it enables focus attention on the goals of a given action, its likely effectiveness, and for whom it is likely to be effective. Each of these issues offers an opportunity to strengthen project design, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation, while also facilitating portfolio-level understandings of adaptation approaches, assumptions, and efficacy. This typology does not, by itself, presume to resolve the many debates in adaptation practice, such as the tension between incremental and transformational goals, the tradeoffs between actions addressing exposure via infrastructure versus those aimed at the underlying structures of inequality that render some populations more vulnerable to these impacts than others. However, by bringing issues of governance and justice the forefront of adaptation conversations, the typology, and the adaptation rationales it enables, allows for the productive, situationallyappropriate negotiation of these debates to improve the outcomes of adaptation policy and action.

Carr, ER; Nalau, J

Adaptation rationales and benefits: A foundation for understanding adaptation impact

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100479

This study is designed to provide a scientific reference for the establishment of rainstorm and flood disaster prevention system in Guilin region and improve the risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disasters. To realize the goal, a flood risk evaluation model is established by weight analysis methods including the entropy weight method and the analytic hierarchy process from 3 aspects, i.e., risk of disaster causing factors, sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environment and vulnerability of disaster bearing body. For the model, the daily precipitation 1980-2020 of 6 representative national meteorological stations in the Lijiang River Basin was used as reference data of disaster causing factors; six indicators, i.e., NDVI, river network density, geological hazard, slope, slope aspect and terrain undulation were selected as the sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environment; NPP, potential of farmland production, and population density were taken as the criteria for determining the vulnerability of disaster bearing capacity. Meanwhile, ArcGIS was used for analysis and calculation to complete the risk assessment of flood disaster in Lijiang River Basin, Guangxi. The results indicate that: (1) the hazard level of flood disaster causing factors in Lijiang River Basin shows a decreasing distribution pattern from north to south, and high-risk areas cover 3108.47 km(2), accounting for 21.29%; (2) the stability grade of disaster-pregnant environment shows a decreasing trend from the surrounding mountains to the plains, and the low-stability and lower-stability areas are mostly found in the low-lying areas around Lijiang River, with an area of 4218.63 km(2), accounting for 28.69%; (3) the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body is generally at a low level, and the areas with high level cover 246.96 km(2), accounting for only 1.69%; (4) under the combined effect of the above factors, the northern part of Guilin City in the Lijiang River Basin has a high risk of flood disaster.

Li, ZW; Tang, XL; Li, LJ; Chu, YQ; Wang, XM; Yang, DS

GIS-based risk assessment of flood disaster in the Lijiang River Basin

Scientific Reports

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-32829-5

This study was undertaken in Laikipia County, Kenya, to identify factors influencing the choices of strategies by pastoralists to adapt to climate change. The study particularly evaluates the role of perceived climate extremes (frequency of dry spells and droughts), early warning information, and access to private ranch grazing, in determining response decisions to climate change. Besides, we test if households jointly adopt climate change adaptation strategies. The primary data collected from 440 sample households was analyzed using the multivariate probit (MVP) model. In the MVP model, we consider the following measures: increased mobility (distance & frequency), storage/purchase of fodder, change in water management, partial shift to other livelihoods, and herd management. The results reveal that these adaptation strategies are jointly adopted by pastoralists as complements and substitutes. From the empirical result, the perceived increase in the number of dry spells and drought, access to early warning information, access to private ranch grazing, main market distance from homesteads, and the highest level of education in the household are the key determinants of the choices of adaptation strategies to cope with drought and climate change. From a policy perspective, this research contributes to the ongoing debate on best practices by addressing climate change-related challenges in semi-arid land management. Therefore, there is a need for early warning institutions to increase their visibility in the semi-arid areas by exploring effective methods of delivering climate risk information in good time. Improving access to market and private ranch grazing should be promoted in the Kenyan semi-arid areas. Given that pastoralists' perceptions of climate change and climate risk is a decisive variable in adaptation decision-making, there is need to improve the understanding of pastoralists' changing climatic conditions. Furthermore, since the results indicate that mobility and storage of fodder are substitutes, the adoption of hay production could become a key production strategy for pastoralists which will increase the competitiveness of their livestock in the market and increase milk production.

Ndiritu, SW

Drought responses and adaptation strategies to climate change by pastoralists in the semi-arid area, Laikipia County, Kenya

Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-021-09949-2

This paper argues that a sustainable ecosystem management approach is vital to ensure the delivery of essential 'life support' ecosystem services and must be mainstreamed into societal conscience, political thinking and economic processes. Feeding the world at a time of climate change, environmental degradation, increasing human population and demand for finite resources requires sustainable ecosystem management and equitable governance. Ecosystem degradation undermines food production and the availability of clean water, hence threatening human health, livelihoods and ultimately societal stability. Degradation also increases the vulnerability of populations to the consequences of natural disasters and climate change impacts. With 10 million people dying from hunger each year, the linkages between ecosystems and food security are important to recognize. Though we all depend on ecosystems for our food and water, about seventy per cent of the estimated 1.1 billion people in poverty around the world live in rural areas and depend directly on the productivity of ecosystems for their livelihoods. Healthy ecosystems provide a diverse range of food sources and support entire agricultural systems, but their value to food security and sustainable livelihoods are often undervalued or ignored. There is an urgent need for increased financial investment for integrating ecosystem management with food security and poverty alleviation priorities. As the world's leaders worked towards a new international climate change agenda in Cancun, Mexico, 29 November-10 December 2010 (UNFCCC COP16), it was clear that without a deep and decisive post-2012 agreement and major concerted effort to reduce the food crisis, the Millennium Development Goals will not be attained. Political commitment at the highest level will be needed to raise the profile of ecosystems on the global food agenda. It is recommended that full recognition and promotion be given of the linkages between healthy, protected ecosystems and global food security; that sufficient resources be allocated for improved ecosystem valuation, protection, management and restoration; and that ecosystem management be integrated in climate change and food security portfolios. We will not be able to feed the world and eradicate extreme poverty, if we do not protect our valuable ecosystems and biodiversity.

Munang, RT; Thiaw, I; Rivington, M

Ecosystem Management: Tomorrow's Approach to Enhancing Food Security under a Changing Climate

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su3070937

Climate change is a global challenge faced by everyone, but the developing countries are highly vulnerable to variations in the environment. This research focuses on the Punjab province of Pakistan and evaluates the impacts and consequences of climate change on general public at local and divisional level. In order to cope with the impacts of climatic changes at all levels, especially divisional level, raising reliable awareness and dispersing actionable knowledge regarding mitigating and adapting measures is significantly important. Therefore, recognition of information gaps, improvements in the level of alertness, and development of preventive measures in each sector is imperative. The impacts of climate change are observed across the country through gradual increase in temperature, human health issues, pest diseases, droughts, floods, and irregular weather patterns leading to changes in lifestyles, and these issues are likely to continue in the future. The main cause of climate change in Punjab, Pakistan, can be attributed to excessive release of greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere due to human activities involving inefficient energy usage, rapid urban expansion, improper waste management, industrial development, increasing transportation, agricultural activities, and livestock mismanagement. The findings of this study revealed that transportation sector is the major source of GHG emissions in the country, followed by industrialization and waste, at national, as well as divisional, level. The extent of impacts of climate change at divisional level is distinguishable and displayed a direct relationship with climate, geography, variation of effects, and modes of production in various regions of Punjab. The study strategically investigated all nine divisions of the province for comprehensive understanding of climate change phenomenon, and the results indicated that nearly three-fourths of the respondents have never indulged in taking steps towards climate change mitigation and adaptation. The study adopted a mixed (qualitative and quantitative) approach where the findings can act as set of guidelines for governmental authorities in formulating, assisting in preparation, instructing, and guiding policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation at national, local, and divisional levels.

Hussain, M; Butt, AR; Uzma, F; Ahmed, R; Rehman, A; Ali, MU; Ullah, H; Yousaf, B

Divisional disparities on climate change adaptation and mitigation in Punjab, Pakistan: local perceptions, vulnerabilities, and policy implications

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-06262-z

Climate change strongly impacts the agricultural sector in West Africa, threatening food security and nutrition, particularly for populations with the least adaptive capacity. Little is known about national climate change policies in the region. This systematic review identifies and analyses climate change policy documents in all 16 West African countries: (1) What are the existing climate change adaptation policies publicly available? (2) Which topics are addressed? (3) How are agriculture and food security framed and addressed? Following PRISMA guidelines, PubMed and Google scholar as key databases were searched with an extensive grey literature search. Keywords for searches were combinations of Africa, Climate Change, and National Policy/Plan/Strategy/Guideline. Fifteen countries have at least one national policy document on climate change in the frame of our study. Nineteen policy documents covered seven key sectors (energy, agriculture, water resources, health, forestry, infrastructure, and education), and eight thematic areas (community resilience, disaster risk management, institutional development, industry development, research and development, policy making, economic investment, and partnerships/collaboration). At the intersection of these sectors/areas, effects of changing climate on countries/populations were evaluated and described. Climate change adaptation strategies emerged including development of local risk/disaster plans, micro-financing and insurance schemes (public or private), green energy, and development of community groups/farmers organizations. No clear trend emerged when analysing the adaptation options, however, climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector was almost always included. Analysing agriculture, nutrition, and food security, seven agricultural challenges were identified: The small scale of West African farming, information gaps, missing infrastructure, poor financing, weak farmer/community organizations, a shifting agricultural calendar, and deteriorating environmental ecology. They reflect barriers to adaptation especially for small-scale subsistence farmers with increased climate change vulnerabilities. The study has shown that most West African countries have climate change policies. Nevertheless, key questions remain unanswered, and demand for further research, e.g., on evaluating the implementation in the respective countries, persists.

Sorgho, R; Quinonez, CAM; Louis, VR; Winkler, V; Dambach, P; Sauerborn, R; Horstick, O

Climate Change Policies in 16 West African Countries: A Systematic Review of Adaptation with a Focus on Agriculture, Food Security, and Nutrition

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17238897

People from across the Caylloma Province of Peru are adapting to social-ecological changes, such as decreasing water supplies and rapidly retreating glaciers, in different and unequal ways. In this study, we show how this inequality is intersectional; identities like gender and age compound and interact with systems of power to shape how people adapt to these changes at the individual, household, and district scales. We draw from 130 semi-structured interviews with agricultural actors and participant observations in district and regional meetings across four districts, to demonstrate how intersectionality shapes adaptation to social-ecological change. Our results show (1) what social-ecological changes are perceived and experienced, (2) how individuals, households, and groups within the agricultural sector adapt to these changes in private (at the individual and household scale) and public adaptation spaces (institutions where people adapt collectively within each district), and (3) how intersectionality shapes adaptive capacity to these changes. Specifically, we found that 'unskilled' women diversified their income through day-labor in agriculture, while 'unskilled' men had more options for income diversification. Migrants who are also renters had access to water; however, migrants who lived in informal settlements lacked water access. Pastoralists over 50 faced more difficulties pursuing income diversification and labor migration than younger populations with similar livelihoods. Public adaptation spaces, including irrigation commissions, were largely designed for Spanish-speaking men who own land, which caused additional barriers for Quechua speakers, women, and migrants who used this space to contribute to adaptation for themselves, their household, and for the broader district. Together, these results expand scholarship on differential adaptation to social-ecological change within globally marginalized, yet locally heterogenous, communities. In particular, this study brings to light how intersecting identities, along with the social, political and economic structures in which they are situated, can lead to unequal adaptation opportunities within heterogeneous communities. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Erwin, A; Ma, Z; Popovici, R; O'Brien, EPS; Zanotti, L; Zeballos, EZ; Bauchet, J; Calderón, NR; Larrea, GRA

Intersectionality shapes adaptation to social-ecological change

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105282

Despite efforts and investments to integrate weather and climate knowledges, often dichotomized into the scientific and the local, a top-down practice of science communication that tends to ignore cultural consensus knowledge still prevails. This paper presents an empirical application of cultural consensus analysis for climate risk management. It uses mixed methods such as focus groups, freelisting, pilesorting, and rapid ethnographic assessment to understand farmers' knowledge of weather and climate conditions in Barangay Biga, Oriental Mindoro, Philippines. Multi-dimensional scaling and aggregate proximity matrix of items are generated to assess the similarity among the different locally perceived weather and climate conditions. Farmers' knowledge is then qualitatively compared with the technical classification from the government's weather bureau. There is cultural agreement among farmers that the weather and climate conditions can be generally grouped into wet, dry, and unpredictable weather (Maria Loka). Damaging hazards belong into two subgroups on the opposite ends of the wet and dry scale, that is, tropical cyclone is grouped together with La Nina, rainy season, and flooding season, while farmers perceive no significant difference between El Nino, drought, and dry spells. Ethnographic information reveals that compared to the technocrats' reductive knowledge, farmers imagine weather and climate conditions (panahon) as an event or a phenomenon they are actively experiencing by observing bioindicators, making sense of the interactions between the sky and the landscape, and the agroecology of pest and diseases, while being subjected to agricultural regulations on irrigation, price volatility, and control of power on subsidies and technologies. This situated local knowledge is also being informed by forecasts and advisories from the weather bureau illustrating a hybrid of technical science, both from the technocrats and the farmers, and personal experiences amidst agricultural precarities. Speaking about the hybridity of knowledge rather than localizing the scientific obliges technocrats and scientists to productively engage with different ways of knowing and the tensions that mediate farmers' knowledge as a societal experience.

Ruzol, C; Lomente, LL; Pulhin, J

Cultural consensus knowledge of rice farmers for climate risk management in the Philippines

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100298

Reindeer herding is an emblematic livelihood for Northern Finland, culturally important for local people and valuable in tourism marketing. We examine the livelihood resilience of Finnish reindeer herding by narrowing the focus of general resilience on social-ecological systems (SESs) to a specific livelihood while also acknowledging wider contexts in which reindeer herding is embedded. The questions for specified resilience can be combined with the applied DPSIR approach (Drivers; Pressures: resilience to what; State: resilience of what; Impacts: resilience for whom; Responses: resilience by whom and how). This paper is based on a synthesis of the authors' extensive anthropological fieldwork on reindeer herding and other land uses in Northern Finland. Our objective is to synthesize various opportunities and challenges that underpin the resilience of reindeer herding as a viable livelihood. The DPSIR approach, applied here as a three step procedure, helps focus the analysis on different components of SES and their dynamic interactions. First, various land use-related DPSIR factors and their relations (synergies and trade-offs) to reindeer herding are mapped. Second, detailed DPSIR factors underpinning the resilience of reindeer herding are identified. Third, examples of interrelations between DPSIR factors are explored, revealing the key dynamics between Pressures, State, Impacts, and Responses related to the livelihood resilience of reindeer herding. In the Discussion section, we recommend that future applications of the DPSIR approach in examining livelihood resilience should (1) address cumulative pressures, (2) consider the state dimension as more tuned toward the social side of SES, (3) assess both the negative and positive impacts of environmental change on the examined livelihood by a combination of science led top-down and participatory bottom-up approaches, and (4) examine and propose governance solutions as well as local adaptations by reindeer herders as equally relevant responses to enhance livelihood resilience.

Sarkki, S; Komu, T; Heikkinen, HI; García, NA; Lépy, É; Herva, VP

Applying a synthetic approach to the resilience of Finnish reindeer herding as a changing livelihood

Ecology And Society

https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08819-210414

The Global South is facing severe challenges in ensuring livelihood security due to climate change impacts, environmental degradation and population growth as well as changing lifestyles. These complex problems cannot be solely solved by single scientific disciplines - they require transdisciplinary research (TDR). Stakeholders from civil society, the corporate sector, government and science need to pool their knowledge to find solutions for sustainable transformations. In Namibia, we have been involved in TDR projects on water supply, and sanitation services as well as livestock management in rangeland systems. In this paper, we review two TDR projects that differ in multiple ways and hence allow us to carve out structural differences and critically discuss research outcomes, lessons learned and the challenge of North-South collaborations. Our review builds upon published and unpublished project documents as well as expert interviews with Namibian and German researchers who were involved in the projects. Our results show that TDR can be put into practice in different ways, depending on the research focus and the period available. The TDR phases of problem framing, inter- and transdisciplinary integration were implemented with different tools and foci points. We discuss the role of project length and funding conditions for project success and outcome generation. In addition, we critically consider the role of Namibian and German researchers in these international collaborations. The conclusions we draw touch upon the points of preparatory research funding, the equal acknowledgement of Global South contributions to joint research projects and the explicit handling of TDR components in project work. Significance: The current social-ecological challenges are complex and require TDR as a mode of knowledge co-production, particularly in a development context. Inter- and transdisciplinary integration are critical processes for a project to be successful and require the allocation of adequate time and monetary resources. Longer-term projects with a funded preparatory research phase constitute a structural model for TDR as project outcomes can evolve over time. Global South researchers carry a hidden burden in international collaborations that has to be adequately acknowledged upfront in project planning and final products.

Luetkemeier, R; Mbidzo, M; Liehr, S

Water security and rangeland sustainability: Transdisciplinary research insights from Namibian-German collaborations

South African Journal Of Science

https://doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2021/7773

Forest vulnerability assessment with ground realities/ data has great implications for adaptation and management planning at local and regional scale. However, such assessments are still limited across globe including the Himalaya. In view of this, present study derived a spatial map of inherent forest vulnerability using ground based observation and information in the western Himalaya. Based on literature and data availability, we selected nine forest vulnerability indicators under four domains i.e., ecological (species richness, and NDVI), climate (temperature, rainfall), topographic (slope, aspect, elevation), disturbances (forest fragmentation) and social (population density). Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is a multi-criteria decision method, was used for weighting the vulnerability indicators. Based on AHP, forest vulnerability index (FVI) was developed using general linear model approach. The FVI index was further classified into four different categories i.e., low, medium, high and very high. The results revealed maximum (37%) forest grids under medium vulnerable profile followed by 31% (high) and 21% (low) vulnerable grids. In general, temperate and mixed forests show higher forest vulnerability in the region, whereas subtropical pine, broadleaf and subalpine forests falls under lesser vulnerable forest grids. These results exhibited that elevation (15.4%), population density (15.1%), slope (14.5%), rainfall (13.7%), forest fragmentation (12.9%), temperature (12.3), and aspect (11.4%) are the major drivers of forest vulnerability, particularly for the Himalayan region. To validate the results, we compared the developed FVI in present study with ground based FVI already generated in previous studies from the region, and found higher similarity in the assessments. The spatial forest vulnerability maps generated in the present study provides a realistic profile of vulnerable forests in Indian western Himalaya, which can be used for developing adaptation measure and management planning.

Thakur, S; Dhyani, R; Negi, VS; Patley, MK; Rawal, RS; Bhatt, ID; Yadava, AK

Spatial forest vulnerability profile of major forest types in Indian Western Himalaya

Forest Ecology And Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119527

Development programs and policies can influence smallholder producers' abilities to adapt to climate change. However, gaps remain in understanding how households' adaptive capacities can become uneven. This paper investigates how development transitions-such as the recent adoption of 'green revolution' agricultural policies throughout sub-Saharan Africa-intersect with cross-scale social-environmental processes to unevenly shape smallholders' adaptive capacities and adaptation pathways. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative material from a multi-season study in Rwanda, we investigate smallholder adaptation processes amid a suite of rural development interventions. Our study finds that adaptive capacities arise differentially across livelihood groups in the context of evolving environmental, social, and political economic processes. We show how social institutions play key roles in shaping differential adaptation pathways by enabling and/or constraining opportunities for smallholders to adapt livelihood and land use strategies. Specifically, Rwanda's Crop Intensification Program enables some wealthier households to adapt livelihoods by generating income through commercial agriculture. At the same time, deactivation of local risk management institutions has diminished climate risk management options for most households. To build and employ alternate livelihood practices such as commercial agriculture and planting woodlots for charcoal production, smallholders must negotiate new institutions, a prerequisite for which is access to capitals (land, labor, and nonfarm income). Those without entitlements to these are pulled deeper into poverty with each successive climatic shock. This illustrates that adaptive capacity is not a static, quantifiable entity that exists in households. We argue that reconceptualizing adaptive capacity as a dynamic, social-environmental process that emerges in places can help clarify complex linkages among development policies, livelihoods, and adaptation pathways. To ensure more equitable and climate-resilient agricultural development, we stress the need to reformulate policies with careful attention to how power structures and entrenched social inequalities can lead to smallholders' uneven capacities to adapt to climate change. (C) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Clay, N; King, B

Smallholders' uneven capacities to adapt to climate change amid Africa's 'green revolution': Case study of Rwanda's crop intensification program

World Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.11.022

Based on the perceptions of the local farmers, this study aims to assess the effects of socioeconomic factors and climatic change on the groundwater livelihood system, with a particular focus on in situ Persian wheels/dug wells. Farmers' perceptions of climate change and how it is affecting their way of life in the Soan River Basin have also been evaluated to determine the most appropriate adaptive interventions. Information and literature about dug wells was unavailable, which stressed the need to carry out this survey. A structured close-ended questionnaire was designed and administered with as much quantitative data as possible. Random sampling opted for a 5 km buffer zone across the Soan River and its tributaries. Union councils having more than 50% of their area lying in the buffer zone were surveyed, and data was collected. Fifty UCs fell within this criterion, and six dug wells from each Union Council were surveyed. The results of our survey collecting local farmer's perceptions determined that about 70% of respondents agreed about climate change in the Soan Basin of Pakistan, and 62% of farmers reported that climate change severely impacted their livelihood by affecting agricultural productivity and water availability. Ninety-two percent reported summer becoming hot, 72% highlighted that winters are becoming less cold, and 96% reported that average annual rainfall has decreased compared to 10 years before. About 72% of respondents indicated that available water in their dug wells had decreased, and 80% of respondents explained that their crop yield had decreased compared to 10 years before. Sixty percent preferred drip and 35% sprinkler irrigation as efficient water management practices to cope with water shortages. Ninety-five percent of farmers were ready to use solar pumps for irrigation to tame high pumping costs. The study recommends integrating solar pumping with drip and sprinkler irrigation systems to enhance farmers' cropped area and productivity. These vulnerable farmers can enhance their resilience and profitability by adopting high-value agriculture (tunnel farming, off-season vegetables, etc.) instead of conventional crops.

Ahmad, B; Nadeem, MU; Liu, T; Asif, M; Rizvi, FF; Kamran, A; Virk, ZT; Jamil, MK; Mustafa, N; Saeed, S; Abbas, A

Climate Change Impact on Groundwater-Based Livelihood in Soan River Basin of Pakistan (South Asia) Based on the Perception of Local Farmers

Water

https://doi.org/10.3390/w15071287

This work illustrates the contribution of flood risk assessment and adaptation to set up a conservation management plan for a masterpiece of 20th-century architecture. Case study is the iconic complex, internationally known as the National Art Schools of Cuba. It consists of five buildings built in the early 1960s within a park of Habana next to the Caribbean Sea. The path of the river (Rio Quibu) crossing the estate was modified to fit the landscape design. The complex has then been exposed to the risk of flooding. The School of Ballet, located in a narrow meander of the river, slightly upstream of a bridge and partially obstructing the flow, is particularly subject to frequent flash floods from the Rio Quibu, and it needs urgent restoration. Keeping ISA Modern is a project aimed at preserving the Schools complex. Based upon in situ surveys on the Rio Quibu and local area measurements during 2019, numerical modelling, and previous work by the Cuban National Institute of Hydraulic Resources, we pursued a flood risk analysis for the area, and a preliminary analysis of available risk reduction strategies. Using HEC-RAS 2D software for hydraulic modelling, we evaluated the flooded area and the hydraulic conditions (flow depth, velocity) for floods with given return periods. Our results show that SB is a building most subject to flooding, with high levels of risk. Defense strategies as designed by Cuban authorities may include a (new) wall around the School of Ballet and widening of the river channel, with high impact and cost, although not definitive. Temporary, light, permanent, and low cost/impact flood proofing structures may be used with similar effectiveness. We demonstrate that relatively little expensive hydraulic investigation may aid flood modelling and risk assessment in support of conservation projects for historically valuable sites. This may support brainstorming and the selection of (low to high cost) adaptation and risk reduction measures in the coastal areas of Cuba in response to ever increasing extreme storms and sea level rise controlling flood dynamics under transient climate change.

Stucchi, L; Bignami, DF; Bocchiola, D; Del Curto, D; Garzulino, A; Rosso, R

Assessment of Climate-Driven Flood Risk and Adaptation Supporting the Conservation Management Plan of a Heritage Site. The National Art Schools of Cuba

Climate

https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9020023

This paper has developed a cost-efficient framework for flood vulnerability assessment at a local scale using a multi-parametric approach integrated with the Open Source Geographical Information System (GIS) and Open Remote Sensing data. The study focuses on generating a set of criteria considering three dimensions of flood vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (AC) on an index-based approach. These indicators were decided based on a robust analysis considering the physical and socio-economic conditions of the study area. The flood exposure was generated from the geomorphological and hydrological parameters integrated with the flood water depth, the distance to river channels, and the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index. The flood sensitivity was determined by the aggregation of local income, land use, poverty index, population density, and other parameters reflecting the socio-economic condition. The AC has been evaluated based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, the density of the community service facilities, and other factors related to the coping capacity to flood. Finally, the flood vulnerability at the local scale was determined based on the integration of its contributing factors using the Analytical Hierarchical Process-based aggregated model. Results indicated that a total of 20 parameters impacted the flood vulnerability of the research area. The findings also confirmed that among the indicators of flood vulnerability of Da Nang City, the flood depth, land-use condition, and drainage system are the key factors affecting the vulnerability level. The empirical assessment showed that the study area is significantly affected by flood vulnerability with more than 60% of the area having the vulnerability level from moderate to very high. In addition, this paper points out that the vulnerability research should be localized and is not always based on the administrative units. This practice can make the decision-making process and adaptation plan more appropriate locally. Especially, this study attempted to evaluate the accuracy of the flood vulnerability map for the first time by using field survey data and the statistical report on flood damage that most of the previous studies have not conducted yet. This framework provides a valuable toolkit for flood management in data-scarce regions all over the world.

An, TT; Izuru, S; Narumasa, T; Raghavan, V; Hanh, LN; An, NV; Long, NV; Thuy, NT; Minh, TP

Flood vulnerability assessment at the local scale using remote sensing and GIS techniques: a case study in Da Nang City, Vietnam

Journal Of Water And Climate Change

https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.029

This paper aimed at to explore the consequences of cyclone victims due to unavailability of infrastructural supports and to prop up the recognition that the infrastructure has a vital role to play in societies' resilience during catastrophic situation. The paper begins with a review of the science regarding climate change impact and cyclone disaster in Bangladesh. It emphasizes the consequences of cyclone Aila in a selected coastal community in the remote coastal area. A field survey was conducted by authors during March- August 2009. Eight available infrastructures were selected for this analysis. Uniformity of distribution (R), demand index (Di) and degree of demand (DD) of the selected infrastructures were calculated by using nearest neighbourhood methods of analysis. Results show that based on its specific planning standards none of the selected infrastructure can support 50% of the total population. Accordingly, it was observed that 76% respondent could not reach in safer place due to rush of water intrusion and also because of the inundation of road- network. The nearness to the available cyclone shelter, and place of taking shelter during cyclone is positively correlated (r=0.38; p< 0.001). However, the poor people had less opportunity to take shelter in cyclone shelters, although none of the respondents groups whose monthly income is above 75 USD stands without any infrastructural support. Such important observation may hint the influence of local elites on the local disaster mitigation planning practice in Bangladesh. Almost 90% of the respondents claimed that they had no access to enter the available cyclone shelter. Furthermore, the damaged infrastructures added more hindrances during post disaster activities and also increased the sufferings of the victims. If there were adequate cyclone shelters or rehabilitation centre, the affected people could take shelter and continue other works temporarily. Results drawn from this research will be useful for local and national level planners, as well as international donors for future disaster mitigation planning in the studied area and the methodology can be applied in similar countries and geographical territories.

Mallick, B; Rahaman, KR; Vogt, J

Coastal livelihood and physical infrastructure in Bangladesh after cyclone Aila

Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-011-9285-y

In view of food affordability and the threshold for food security, this paper has established an integrated index for assessing the vulnerability of food security in China, which is composed mainly of the balance between food supply and demand, the reserve for food security and the economic capacity for offset food demand. Six types of food security regions are identified based on the data from county-level statistics. At regional scale, China's food security is not optimistic. Under normal conditions without the emergence of extreme disasters and decline of grain-sown areas, China's most vulnerable areas (Type VI) account for 30.3% of the total number of counties (cities), which are unable to meet the ends by food productivity or market based measures at subsistence levels. In China, there are only 14.5% of the counties (cities) that could guarantee well-off food security through grain production (Type 1) or economic measures to meet the demand by themselves (Type 111). According to the different vulnerable levels of food security and its dominant forming factors, vulnerable regions of food security in China could be classified into three categories: (1) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by natural factors (including Type IV and Type Via), which account for 39.4% of the total number of counties (cities), mainly located in fragile ecologic zones, i.e., farming-grazing transitional zones in the marginal areas of summer monsoon, the poor hilly areas in southern China and so on; (2) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by low ratio of grain-sown areas (including Type VIb and Type V), which account for 16.7% of the total number of counties (cities), mostly located in the developed areas in the eastern coast of China; (3) Potential vulnerable regions of food security with underdeveloped local economies (Type 11), of which 57% are the main grain-surplus regions in China, mainly located in the areas of plains and basins with favorable climate.

Yin, PH; Fang, XQ; Yun, YR

Regional differences of vulnerability of food security in China

Journal Of Geographical Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-009-0532-z

Surface water floods (SWFs) have received increasing attention in the recent years. Nevertheless, we still know relatively little about where, when and why such floods occur and cause damage, largely due to a lack of data but to some degree also because of terminological ambiguities. Therefore, in a preparatory step, we summarize related terms and identify the need for unequivocal terminology across disciplines and international boundaries in order to bring the science together. Thereafter, we introduce a large (n = 63117), long (10-33 years) and representative (48% of all Swiss buildings covered) data set of spatially explicit Swiss insurance flood claims. Based on registered flood damage to buildings, the main aims of this study are twofold: First, we introduce a method to differentiate damage caused by SWFs and fluvial floods based on the geographical location of each damaged object in relation to flood hazard maps and the hydrological network. Second, we analyze the data with respect to their spatial and temporal distributions aimed at quantitatively answering the fundamental questions of how relevant SWF damage really is, as well as where and when it occurs in space and time. This study reveals that SWFs are responsible for at least 45% of the flood damage to buildings and 23% of the associated direct tangible losses, whereas lower losses per claim are responsible for the lower loss share. The Swiss lowlands are affected more heavily by SWFs than the alpine regions. At the same time, the results show that the damage claims and associated losses are not evenly distributed within each region either. Damage caused by SWFs occurs by far most frequently in summer in almost all regions. The normalized SWF damage of all regions shows no significant upward trend between 1993 and 2013. We conclude that SWFs are in fact a highly relevant process in Switzerland that should receive similar attention like fluvial flood hazards. Moreover, as SWF damage almost always coincides with fluvial flood damage, we suggest considering SWFs, like fluvial floods, as integrated processes of our catchments.

Bernet, DB; Prasuhn, V; Weingartner, R

Surface water floods in Switzerland: what insurance claim records tell us about the damage in space and time

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1659-2017

The Green Climate Fund (GCF) is a significant and potentially innovative addition to UNFCCC frameworks for mobilizing increased finance for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Yet the GCF faces challenges of operationalization not only as a relatively new international fund but also as a result of US President Trump's announcement that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Consequently the GCF faces a major reduction in actual funding contributions and also governance challenges at the levels of its Board and the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP), to which it is ultimately accountable. This article analyzes these challenges with reference to the GCF's internal regulations and its agreements with third parties to demonstrate how exploiting design features of the GCF could strengthen its resilience in the face of such challenges. These features include linkages with UNFCCC constituted bodies, particularly the Technology Mechanism, and enhanced engagement with non-Party stakeholders, especially through its Private Sector Facility. The article posits that deepening GCF interlinkages would increase both the coherence of climate finance governance and the GCF's ability to contribute to ambitious climate action in uncertain times. Key policy insights The Trump Administration's purported withdrawal from the Paris Agreement creates challenges for the GCF operating model in three key domains: capitalization, governance and guidance. Two emerging innovations could prove crucial in GCF resilience to fulfil its role in Paris Agreement implementation: (1) interlinkages with other UNFCCC bodies, especially the Technology Mechanism; and (2) engagement with non-Party stakeholders, especially private sector actors such as large US investors and financiers. There is also an emerging soft role for the GCF as interlocutor between policy-makers and non-Party actors to help bridge the communication divide that often plagues cross-sectoral interactions. This role could develop through: (a) the GCF tripartite interface between the Private Sector Facility, Accredited Entities and National Designated Authorities; and (b) strengthened collaborations between the UNFCCC Technical and Financial Mechanisms.

Bowman, M; Minas, S

Resilience through interlinkage: the green climate fund and climate finance governance

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1513358

There is increasing attention towards understanding the modifying factors influencing the rela-tionship between meteorological information utilization and adopting climate-smart agricultural practices. Much as several studies have established that meteorological information is vital for adopting climate-smart agricultural practices, not much research has been conducted to contextualize the influence of modifying factors in that relationship. The study is derived from a sample of 341 households. Adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices and modifying effects were understood through a series of univariate, bivariant, and linear regression analyses. Findings from the study indicate that the climate-smart agriculture practices adopted most are; inter -cropping (71.8%), cover cropping (71%), and crop rotation (69.5%), while the least adopted are mulching (2.3%) and minimum tillage (4.1%). The relationship between meteorological infor-mation utilization and adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices is influenced by peers' or community influence, indigenous knowledge or cultural beliefs, and trust. Trust in weather forecasts scored highest in the relationship between meteorological information utilization and adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices (x2=0.01, P = 0.002**). After accounting for the mediating role of trust, meteorological information utilization positively impacted the adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices (B = 0.376, t = 2.045, p < 0.05). The Sobel test results indicate that the mediation effect was also significant (Z = 6.45369270, p < 0.000001). There-fore, trust in meteorological information partially accounts for the relationship between meteo-rological information utilization and adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices. It can be recommended that there is a need for integration of indigenous knowledge in the scientific meteorological information and provision of finer grain forecasts that can be trusted by the end -users in a timely fashion. This will promote meteorological information utilization in the climate -smart agricultural practices adoption decision.

Nantongo, B; Ssekandi, J; Ngom, A; Dieng, B; Diouf, N; Diouf, J; Noba, K

Meteorological information utilization and adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices; modifying factors and mediating effect

Environmental Development

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2023.100857

The impacts of climate change are predicted to negatively impair the improvements made towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), especially in developing countries. Uncertainty on specific actions and strategies remains, leading to a research-implementation gap. For Ecuador, one of the key challenges to local adaptation are the institutional capacities of the decentralized autonomous governments (GAD, Spanish acronym). Therefore, the objective of this study is firstly to apply a capacity development strategy developed by GIZ (2013a) in the context of limited knowledge and resources and secondly gain a deeper understanding of climate action in Ecuador on a provincial level. The case study is based on an experimental participatory workshop in the coastal province of Santa Elena, Ecuador. The applied methodology has three components: firstly, semi-structured expert interviews on climate action in Ecuador; secondly, the participatory workshops with technicians and employees of the provincial government, its analysis together with a pre-, post- and two-months-after the workshop follow-up survey; thirdly, the analysis of the workshop is complemented by a peer validation of the co-facilitators. The analysis of the workshop suggests that in a context of limited institutional capacity, an understanding of climate change terminology, vulnerability and adaptive capacity is crucial to interpret predictions and to motivate action. Additionally, results indicate that pairing the content of the seminar with elements of project management might also strengthen local planning and longevity of rural development measures. Overall, the methodology of GIZ might therefore not be suitable in the local context due to its fast pace and difficult terminology. A more promising approach to foster local climate action is the Design-Thinking (DT) methodology due to its easier accessibility. Based on the insights of the case study a capacity development strategy incorporating DT offers lessons learnt for practitioners aiming to promote local climate action in comparable institutional contexts of limited knowledge and resources. As limited knowledge and resources are often main barriers to climate action, developing capacity building strategies will in turn foster climate action. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Baum, D; Yagüe-Blanco, JL; Escobar, J

Capacity development strategy empowering the decentralized governments of Ecuador towards local climate action

Journal Of Cleaner Production

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125320

Climate change adds another dimension of challenges to the growth and sustainability of Indian agriculture. The growing exposure to livelihood shocks from climate variability/change and limited resource base of the rural community to adapt has reinforced the need to mainstream climate adaptation planning into developmental landscape. However, a better understanding of micro-level perceptions is imperative for effective and informed planning at the macro-level. In this paper, the grass-root level perspectives on climate change impacts and adaptation decisions were elicited at farm level in the Moga district of Punjab and Mahbubnagar district of Telangana, India. The farmers opined that the climatic variability impacts more than the long-term climate change. They observed change in the quantum, onset and distribution of rainfall, rise in minimum as well as maximum temperature levels, decline in crop yield and ground water depletion. The key socio-economic effects of climate change included decline in farm income, farm unemployment, rural migration and increased indebtedness among farmers. In order to cope with climate variability and change thereon, farmers resorted to adaptation strategies such as use of crop varieties of suitable duration, water conservation techniques, crop insurance and participation in non-farm activities and employment guarantee schemes. Farmers' adaptation to changing climate was constrained by several technological, socio-economic and institutional barriers. These include limited knowledge on the costs-benefits of adaptation, lack of access to and knowledge of adaptation technologies, lack of financial resources and limited information on weather. Besides, lack of access to input markets, inadequate farm labour and smaller farm size were the other constraints. Further, on the basis of the grass-root elicitation a 'Need-Based Adaptation' planning incorporating farmers' perceptions on climate change impacts, constraints in the adoption of adaptation strategies and plausible adaptation options were linked with the most suitable ongoing programmatic interventions of the Government of India. The study concluded that micro-level needs and constraints for various adaptation strategies and interventions should be an integral part of the programme development, implementation and evaluation in the entire developmental paradigm.

Singh, NP; Anand, B; Khan, MA

Micro-level perception to climate change and adaptation issues: A prelude to mainstreaming climate adaptation into developmental landscape in India

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3250-y

Knowledge networks are a recent innovation in global environmental governance. They provide a means for local and regional initiatives aimed at averting, mitigating, or adapting to climate change and other trans-boundary problems to join together in a system that: permits sharing of experiences, diffuses policy innovation across national borders, and spans divergent disciplinary boundaries so as to better communicate science to local decision-makers. We consider the role currently played by networks and the possibility that, over time, their soft power characteristics - a reliance on value change and policy emulation - may eventually place them in a position to globally coordinate local and regional environmental policy innovations. If successful, their efforts might supplant the need for national action to address climate change, even if they do not replace the nation-state system whose environmental management efforts will continue to rely on hard power: the use, primarily, of economic incentives to induce policy change. ICLEI provides technical consulting, training, and information services to build capacity, share knowledge, and support local government in the implementation of sustainable development at the local level. Our basic premise is that locally designed initiatives can provide an effective and cost-efficient way to achieve local, national, and global sustainability objectives. - International Council of Local Environmental Initiatives - website, 2010 When California passed its global warming law two years ago, we were out there on an island, so we started forming partnerships everywhere we could. We teamed up with Great Britain, the Canadian provinces, and the Western and Northeastern states and with states like those of my co hosts - Illinois, Florida, Kansas, Wisconsin and more. And right here, for the first time, we have officials from China, India, Mexico, Brazil, and Indonesia and across the world in the same summit, working toward the same goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and growing green economies in our own backyards. - Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Global Climate Summit. Los Angeles, California. November 18, 2008. (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Feldman, DL

The future of environmental networks-Governance and civil society in a global context

Futures

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.07.007

The study takes on the framework that vulnerability to climate change depends on the interrelationship of key elements of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (Adger, 2006). The general objective of the study is to arrive at an understanding of the community and household vulnerability in three study areas: Kampong Speu in Cambodia, Laguna province in the Philippines, and Thua Thien Hue in Vietnam. Specifically, it aims I) to measure communes'/ barangays' relative vulnerability in the selected study sites; 2) to analyze social vulnerability of local communities in terms of underlying problems; and, 3) to measure and explain the vulnerability of households in relation to their economic and demographic features. Community level and household level surveys were conducted to gather data for the vulnerability analysis, in combination with qualitative data gathering tools such as key informant and in-depth interviews and focused group discussions. About two thirds of communes/barangays in the studies sites were identified as highly vulnerable. These are mostly communities in lowland and coastal areas; especially communes/barangays with relatively high incidence of poverty, with large areas devoted for agricultural activities and with poor infrastructure facilities. On the other hand, household characteristics found to be related to vulnerability to climate-related risks and hazards include household income, types of livelihood, family size, education of the household head, and the level of exposure to identified hazards. Households living on natural resource-based livelihood are likely to be more vulnerable as these livelihoods are more exposed to and more sensitive to climate hazards. Most poor households are found to be vulnerable. Low adaptive capacity was found to be a key determinant of household vulnerability to climate change across countries. Women were found to be more vulnerable to climatic hazard than men due to limitation in skills and opportunities but they were given more responsibilities in taking care of family member during risk hazard response and rehabilitation periods. An over representation of women during response and rehabilitation periods was found across the study sites.

Mendoza, MET; The, BD; Naret, H; Ballaran, VG; Arias, JKB

Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts in Cambodia, the Philippines and Vietnam: An Analysis at the Commune and Household Level

Journal Of Environmental Science And Management

Based on urban physical space and theory of landscape ecology, a triune assessment framework -'size-density-morphology'-was constructed in order to analyze the spatial pattern and the scale effect of urban resilience in Shenyang of China in 2015, and to explore the main impact factors of landscape under different spatial scale backgrounds. The results show that: 1) Urban resilience is an optimal combination of the resilience of size, density, and morphology. The urban resilience of Shenyang displays scale effect; the overall resilience level increases with the increase in scale, while the spatial difference and spatial similarity tend to decrease resilience. 2) As 2 km, 1 km and 2 km are scale inflection points of average value curves for size resilience, density resilience and morphology resilience, respectively in an urban setting; the optimal scale unit of comprehensive resilience is 1 km. Choosing 1 km-2 km as the basic spatial scale better depicts overall pattern and detailed characteristics of resilience in Shenyang. The spatial amplitudes of 0.5 km and 1 km are sensitive points for spatial autocorrelation of morphology and density resilience, size, and comprehensive resilience to scale effect. 3) The major landscape factors of urban size and morphology resilience transform with scale expansion. Aggregation index (AI) has a significant impact on urban resilience at different scales; its influence increases significantly with the increase in scale. 4) The high-level area of comprehensive resilience in Shenyang is the eastern ecological corridor area, while the low value area is the peripheral extension area of the city. To promote the overall level of resilience in Shenyang, this paper argues that the construction of ecological infrastructure should be strengthened in the peripheral extension area in a balanced manner. In the city center, population and building density should be controlled; the intensity of human activities should be reduced; impetus should be placed on landscape heterogeneity; and the homogeneous expansion of the area of construction should be prevented. In the eastern ecological corridors, the exploitation of ecosystem lands should be strictly controlled, and the integrity of the green landscape patches should be maintained.

Feng, XH; Lei, J; Xiu, CL; Li, JX; Bai, LM; Zhong, YX

Analysis of Spatial Scale Effect on Urban Resilience: A Case Study of Shenyang, China

Chinese Geographical Science

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-020-1163-7

Flood loss modeling is an important component within flood risk assessments. Traditionally, stage-damage functions are used for the estimation of direct monetary damage to buildings. Although it is known that such functions are governed by large uncertainties, they are commonly applied - even in different geographical regions - without further validation, mainly due to the lack of real damage data. Until now, little research has been done to investigate the applicability and transferability of such damage models to other regions. In this study, the last severe flood event in the Austrian Lech Valley in 2005 was simulated to test the performance of various damage functions from different geographical regions in Central Europe for the residential sector. In addition to common stage-damage curves, new functions were derived from empirical flood loss data collected in the aftermath of recent flood events in neighboring Germany. Furthermore, a multi-parameter flood loss model for the residential sector was adapted to the study area and also evaluated with official damage data. The analysis reveals that flood loss functions derived from related and more similar regions perform considerably better than those from more heterogeneous data sets of different regions and flood events. While former loss functions estimate the observed damage well, the latter overestimate the reported loss clearly. To illustrate the effect of model choice on the resulting uncertainty of damage estimates, the current flood risk for residential areas was calculated. In the case of extreme events like the 300 yr flood, for example, the range of losses to residential buildings between the highest and the lowest estimates amounts to a factor of 18, in contrast to properly validated models with a factor of 2.3. Even if the risk analysis is only performed for residential areas, our results reveal evidently that a carefree model transfer in other geographical regions might be critical. Therefore, we conclude that loss models should at least be selected or derived from related regions with similar flood and building characteristics, as far as no model validation is possible. To further increase the general reliability of flood loss assessment in the future, more loss data and more comprehensive loss data for model development and validation are needed.

Cammerer, H; Thieken, AH; Lammel, J

Adaptability and transferability of flood loss functions in residential areas

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3063-2013

The main purpose of this study was to characterize the livelihood resilience of smallholder farmers in the face of recurring droughts in northeast Ethiopia. The data was collected using a cross-sectional survey of 274 households and five focus group discussions. Principal component analysis and multiple linear regression models were employed to analyze the data. The Livelihood Resilience Index (LRI), framed on absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities, was used to quantify the households' livelihood resilience. The results indicated that about 57% of the surveyed respondents were non-resilient, while 43% were resilient to different degrees. Abay Tekeze watershed (ATW) livelihood zone exhibits the highest proportion of resilient households (57.4%), while North Wollo highland belg has the lowest proportion (22.7%). The high resilience in ATW was attributed to the relatively lower persistence of droughts, better accessibility in enabling institutions, more access to agricultural inputs, and the training and support given to farmers. The better-off were more resilient (90.9%) than the medium (52.1%) and the poor (34.6%) households. Among the latent dimensions, sensitivity with & beta; value -0.372, climate change and variability (-0.33), and enabling institutions and environments (0.288) showed a significant (p < 0.0001) influence on LRI. This was followed by adaptive capacity and food access (0.249), agricultural practice and technology (0.213), and asset possession (0.19), in respective order. It implies that the absorptive capacity of households showed the leading influence in determining LRI, while adaptive and transformative capacities had nearly similar low effects. Thus, it is recommended that future planning for building livelihood resilience and drought risk interventions in the area should address the levels of resilience identified and the relative importance of each latent dimension indicated.

Wassie, SB; Mengistu, DA; Birlie, AB

Agricultural livelihood resilience in the face of recurring droughts: Empirical evidence from northeast Ethiopia

Heliyon

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16422

The occurrence of natural hazards on the earth is as universal as this universe. Though difficult to avoid or control, however, increasing resilience remains a crucial coping mechanism for disasters. This study focuses on the first target (SDG-13.1) of Climate Action which entails strengthening country-specific resilience and adaptive capacity towards natural disasters. Thus, we develop a novel comprehensive disaster resilience index that captures economic stability, emergency workforce, agricultural development, human capital, digitalization, infrastructure, governance, social capital, and women empowerment. We apply IMF index-making methodology using panel data of 62 indicators from 1995 to 2019 across 24 developed and 67 developing countries. Resilience index was higher in high-income countries (0.674) followed by upper-middle (0.463), lower-middle (0.372), and low (0.314) income economies. The top 5 countries with high resilience scores include Switzerland (0.789), Germany (0.777), France (0.751), New Zealand (0.749), and Australia (0.733). Disaster resilience score in 2019 was (a) greater than 0.7 for 9 countries, (b) between 0.5 and 0.7 for 31 countries, (c) between 0.3 and 0.5 for 44 countries, and (d) less than 0.3 for 7 countries. Our study recommends improvement in disaster resilience through risk-informed strategies (i.e., rescue and medical care services, early warning systems, training, and the latest technologies). It is recommended for low resilience countries to (a) increase the health budget and upgrade hospitals, (b) ensure economic stability and food security through agricultural growth and financial development, (c) enhance social and human capital, (d) introduce institutional reforms, and (e) empower women. Thus, improving resilience for preparedness, restoration, and loss minimization underpin the pathway towards riskinformed sustainable development.

Khan, MTI; Anwar, S; Sarkodie, SA; Yaseen, MR; Nadeem, AM; Ali, Q

Comprehensive disaster resilience index: Pathway towards risk-informed sustainable development

Journal Of Cleaner Production

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132937

Agroecological practices are promoted as a more proactive approach than conventional agriculture to achieving a collective global response to climate change and variability while building robust and resilient agricultural systems to meet food needs and protect the integrity of ecosystems. There is relatively limited evidence on the key traditional agroecological knowledge and practices adopted by smallholder farmers, the factors that influence smallholder farmers' decision to adopt these practices, and the opportunities it presents for building resilient agricultural systems. Using a multi-scale mixed method approach, we conducted key informant interviews (n 1/4 12), focus group discussions (n 1/4 5), and questionnaire surveys (N 1/4 220) to explore the traditional agroecological knowledge and practices, the influencing factors, and the opportunities smallholder farmers presented for achieving resilient agricultural systems. Our findings suggest that smallholder farmers employ a suite of traditional agroecological knowledge and practices to enhance food security, combat climate change, and build resilient agricultural systems. The most important traditional agroecological knowledge and practices in the study area comprise cultivating leguminous crops, mixed crop-livestock systems, and crop rotation, with Relative Importance Index (RII) values of 0.710, 0.708, and 0.695, respectively. It is reported that the choice of these practices by smallholder farmers is influenced by their own farming experience, access to market, access to local resources, information, and expertise, and the perceived risk of climate change. Moreover, the results further show that improving household food security and nutrition, improving soil quality, control of pest and disease infestation, and support from NonGovernmental Organizations (NGOs) and local authorities are opportunities for smallholder farmers in adopting traditional agroecological knowledge and practices for achieving resilient agricultural systems. The findings call into question the need for stakeholders and policy-makers at all levels to develop capacity and increase the awareness of traditional agroecological knowledge and practices as mechanisms to ensure resilient agricultural systems for sustainable food security.

Yeleliere, E; Yeboah, T; Antwi-Agyei, P; Peprah, P

Traditional agroecological knowledge and practices: The drivers and opportunities for adaptation actions in the northern region of Ghana

Regional Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2022.11.002