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查爾斯和戴維·科赫（來自石油天然氣行業）、羅伯特·默瑟（來自金融行業）和謝爾登·阿德爾森（來自博彩行業）等億萬富翁為追求個人經濟利益而玩弄政治。 | Billionaires such as Charles and David Koch (oil and gas), Robert Mercer (finance), and Sheldon Adelson (casinos) play their politics for personal financial gain. | 翻譯成中文。 |
他們贊助承諾減稅、放鬆行業管制和無視環境學（尤其是氣候學）警告的共和黨政客。 | They fund Republican politicians who promise to cut their taxes, deregulate their industries, and ignore the warnings of environmental science, especially climate science. | 翻譯成中文。 |
在涉及聯合國可持續發展目標進展的問題上，美國在157個國家當中排名第42，這是我近期參與主導的一次可持續發展目標指數排名的結果。 美國在這方面幾乎落後於所有其他高收入國家。 | When it comes to progress toward achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the US placed 42nd out of 157 countries in a recent ranking of the SDG Index that I help to lead, far below almost all other high-income countries. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Danish author Bjørn Lomborg was puzzled. | 丹麥作家比約恩·隆伯格感到十分困惑。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
一個如此富裕的國家怎麼會得分如此之低？ | How could such a rich country score so low? | 翻譯成中文。 |
“抨擊美國既流行又輕鬆”，他這樣推測。 | “America-bashing is popular and easy,” he surmised. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但這並不是抨擊美國。 | Yet this is not about America-bashing. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The SDG Index is built on internationally comparable data relevant to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals for 157 countries. | 可持續發展目標指數以與157個國家17項可持續發展目標相關的 國際可比資料為基礎。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
真正重要的是：可持續發展目標的要點是社會包容性和環境可持續性，而不僅僅關注財富。 | The real point is this: sustainable development is about social inclusion and environmental sustainability, not just wealth. | 翻譯成中文。 |
美國排名遠遜於其他高收入國家是因為美國的富豪階層多年以來一直拒絕關注社會公平和環境可持續性。 | The US ranks far behind other high-income countries because America's plutocracy has for many years turned its back on social justice and environmental sustainability. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The US is indeed a rich country, but Lord Acton’s famous aphorism applies to nations as well as to individuals: power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. | 美國確實是一個富國，但阿克頓勳爵的名言既適用於個人也適用於整個國家：權力帶來腐敗、絕對權力帶來絕對腐敗。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
美國富豪階層已經在如此長的時間內擁有如此之多的權力以至於可以在弱勢的自然環境面前不受懲罰。 | The US plutocracy has wielded so much power for so long that it acts with impunity vis-à-vis the weak and the natural environment. | 翻譯成中文。 |
四大強勢遊說集團一直佔統治地位：包括石油巨頭、私人醫療機構、軍工複合體和華爾街。 | Four powerful lobbies have long held sway: Big Oil, private health care, the military-industrial complex, and Wall Street. | 翻譯成中文。 |
These special interests feel especially empowered now by Donald Trump’s administration, which is filled with corporate lobbyists, not to mention several right-wing billionaires in the cabinet. | 這些特殊利益群體如今在唐納德·特朗普政府的授權下更感到法力無邊，特朗普政府充斥著行業遊說勢力，更不用說特朗普內閣本身就吸收了不止一位右翼百萬富翁。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
儘管可持續發展目標呼籲通過脫碳（可持續發展目標第7條、可繼續發展目標第13條）來減緩氣候變化，但美國的化石燃料企業正在竭力抵制該目標的執行。 | While the Sustainable Development Goals call for mitigating climate change through decarbonization (SDG 7, SDG 13), US fossil-fuel companies are strenuously resisting. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Under the sway of Big Oil and Big Coal, Trump announced his intention to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement. | 在石油和煤炭巨頭的影響下，特朗普宣佈他打算退出巴黎氣候協定的企圖。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
America’s annual energy-related per capita CO2 emissions, at 16.4 tons, are the highest in the world for a large economy. | 美國與能源相關的二氧化碳人均年度排放量為16. 4噸，在全球大型經濟體中高居榜首。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The comparable figure for Germany, for example, is 9.2 tons. | 舉例來講，德國的可比數字為9. 2噸。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
現在已經被化石燃料業遊說者牢牢掌控的美國環保署每週都在廢除環境法規（儘管法庭對其中很多決定提出起訴）。 | The US Environmental Protection Agency, now in the hands of lobbyists from the fossil-fuel sector, dismantles environmental regulations every week (though many of these actions are being challenged in court). | 翻譯成中文。 |
可持續發展目標還呼籲減少收入不平等（可持續發展目標第10條）。 | The SDGs also call for reduced income inequality (SDG 10). | 翻譯成中文。 |
過去30年來美國的收入不平等呈快速上升之勢，基尼係數為41. 1，在高收入經濟體中僅次於以色列（42. | America’s income inequality has soared in the past 30 years, with the Gini coefficient at 41.1, the second highest among high-income economies, just behind Israel (at 42.8). | 翻譯成中文。 |
Republican proposals for tax cuts would increase inequality further. | 8）高居第二。 共和黨的減稅議案會進一步加劇不平等。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The US rate of relative poverty (households at less than half of median income), at 17.5%, is also the second highest in the OECD (again just behind Israel). | 美國的相對貧困率（家庭收入不到中位數收入的一半）為17. 5%，在經合組織中（僅次於以色列）排名次高。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Likewise, while the SDGs target decent jobs for all (SDG 8), American workers are nearly the only ones in the OECD that lack guaranteed paid sick leave, family leave, and vacation days. | 同樣，儘管可持續發展目標要求人人擁有體面的工作（可持續發展目標第8條），但經合組織中幾乎唯一不享有有保障的帶薪病假、家庭假和休假的就是美國勞工。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
結果是越來越多的美國人在缺乏工作保障的情況下悲慘的工作。 | The result is that more and more Americans work in miserable conditions without job protections. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Around nine million American workers are stuck below the poverty line. | 約有900萬美國工人掙扎在貧困線以下。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The US also suffers from an epidemic of malnutrition at the hands of the powerful US fast-food industry, which has essentially poisoned the public with diets loaded with saturated fats, sugar, and unhealthy processing and chemical additives. | 美國也因為強大的國內快餐業而備受營養不良問題的困擾，美國快餐業一直在用充斥著飽和脂肪、糖和不健康加工和化學新增劑的飲食來毒害公眾。 結果是肥胖率高達33. | 翻譯成英文。 |
7%，毫無疑問位居經合組織國家榜首，並由此帶來非傳染性疾病等巨大的不良後果。 美國的“健康壽命”（無病年齡）僅為69. | The result is an obesity rate of 33.7%, the highest by far in the OECD, with enormous adverse consequences for non-communicable diseases. | 翻譯成中文。 |
America’s “healthy life expectancy” (morbidity-free years) is only 69.1 years, compared to 74.9 years in Japan and 73.1 years in Switzerland. | 1歲，而日本為74. 9歲，瑞士為73. | 翻譯成英文。 |
While the Sustainable Development Goals emphasize peace (SDG 16), America’s military-industrial complex pursues open-ended wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, to name some of America’s current engagements) and large-scale arms sales. | 儘管可持續發展目標強調和平（可持續發展目標第16條），但美國軍工聯合體卻追求開放式戰爭（阿富汗、伊拉克、敘利亞、葉門、利比亞是幾個當前的例項）和大規模軍售。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
在最近訪問沙烏地阿拉伯時，特朗普簽訂協議向該國出售價值超過1000億美元的軍火，並大肆吹噓這會對美國國防業帶來“工作、工作、工作”。 | On his recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Trump signed a deal to sell over $100 billion in weapons to the country, boasting that it would mean “jobs, jobs, jobs” in America’s defense sector. | 翻譯成中文。 |
美國富豪也助推本土暴力。 美國凶殺率為10萬分之3. | America’s plutocracy contributes to homegrown violence as well. | 翻譯成中文。 |
9，在所有經合組織國家中排名榜首，比歐洲高數倍之多（德國的凶殺率僅為10萬分之0. 9）。 | The US homicide rate, 3.9 per 100,000, is the highest of any OECD country, and several times higher than in Europe (Germany’s rate is 0.9 per 100,000). | 翻譯成中文。 |
月復一月，美國發生大規模槍擊事件，如拉斯維加斯大屠殺。 | Month after month, there are mass shootings in the US, such as the massacre in Las Vegas. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Yet the political power of the gun lobby, which opposes limits even on assault weapons, has blocked the adoption of measures that would boost public safety. | 但槍支遊說集團的政治力量甚至反對限制攻擊性武器，一直阻礙出臺措施改善公共安全狀況。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Another kind of violence is mass incarceration. | 還有一種暴力是大規模監禁。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
With 716 inmates per 100,000 people, America has the world’s highest incarceration rate, roughly ten times that of Norway (71 per 100,000). | 美國每10萬人中就有716名罪犯，其監禁率為全球最高，約為挪威的十倍（10萬分之71）。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Remarkably, America has partly privatized its prisons, creating an industry with an overriding interest in maximizing the number of prisoners. | 值得注意的是，美國部分實現了監獄私有化，並由此創造出以儘可能擴大被監禁群體為首要利益的既得利益者。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Former President Barack Obama issued a directive to phase out private federal prisons, but the Trump administration reversed it. | 前總統奧巴馬曾釋出指令逐漸取消私人聯邦監獄，但特朗普政府逆轉了這種狀況。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
隆伯格還想知道為什麼雖然美國2016年官方發展援助（ODA）達到約336億美元，但在全球“目標夥伴關係”中卻屬於得分很低的。 | Lomborg also wonders why the US gets a low score on global “Partnership for the Goals,” even though the US gave around $33.6 billion in official development assistance (ODA) in 2016. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The answer is easy: relative to gross national income of almost $19 trillion, ODA spending by the US amounted to just 0.18% of GNI – roughly a quarter of the global target of 0.7% of GDP. | 答案其實非常簡單：與近19萬億美元的國民總收入相比，美國官方發展援助開支僅佔國民總收入的0. 18%——約為全球GDP目標0. | 翻譯成英文。 |
美國在可持續發展目標指數中排名很低並不是侮辱美國。 | America’s low ranking in the SDG Index is not America-bashing. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Rather, it is a sad and troubling reflection of the wealth and power of lobbies relative to ordinary citizens in US politics. | 相反，它是美國遊說勢力財富和權力相對於普通公民在政界地位的一種悲傷而令人不安的反射。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
我不久前曾通過州議會候選人正在開始採納的一系列美國目標，協助推動州一級政客關注可持續發展狀況。 | I recently helped to launch an effort to refocus state-level US politics around sustainable development, through a set of America’s Goals that candidates for state legislatures are beginning to adopt. | 翻譯成中文。 |
我相信後特朗普時期的美國將重新致力於共同價值觀，無論是在美國國內還是作為可持續發展的全球夥伴國。 | I am confident that a post-Trump America will recommit itself to the values of the common good, both within America and as a global partner for sustainable development. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Profiles in Cowardice | 臨陣脫逃 | 翻譯成英文。 |
NEW YORK – The fate of nations often comes down to the choices made by a handful of individuals at a particular moment in history. | 紐約—民族的命運，常常由一小撮人在某個特殊歷史時刻的選擇決定。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Today, the United States is facing just such a moment. | 如今，美國正面臨這樣一個時刻。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
一小撮共和黨的決定不但將影響這個國家的未來，也將影響民主的未來。 | What a handful of individual Republicans decide will shape the future not just of the country, but of democracy itself. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Modern history is littered with similarly pivotal choices, for better or worse. | 現代史充滿了類似的重要選擇，結果有好也有壞。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
A century ago, the Russian Revolution came down to a showdown between the iron will of Vladimir Lenin and the indecisiveness of Alexander Kerensky, who ended up sneaking out of Saint Petersburg to escape the Bolsheviks. | 一百年前，俄國革命面臨著列寧的鋼鐵意志和克倫斯基（Alexander Kerensky）的優柔寡斷之間的抉擇，後者最後黯然離開聖彼得堡，逃離布林什維克之手。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
在另一場俄國革命中——1999年新年前夜，總統普京在政府中站穩了腳跟，並藉此一直統治至今——同樣也出現了時任領導人的剛愎自用。 | Another Russian revolution – on New Year’s Eve 1999, when President Vladimir Putin gained the government foothold that ultimately enabled him to rule the country to this day – also came down to a solitary selfish decision by the country’s then-leader. | 翻譯成中文。 |
總統葉利欽將自己和家人的安全置於俄羅斯的福祉之上，提名前克格勃上校普京為自己的繼任者。 | Choosing to prioritize his own safety and that of his family over the wellbeing of Russia, President Boris Yeltsin named Putin, a former KGB colonel, as his successor. | 翻譯成中文。 |
再來看一個比較積極的例子，如果1940年6月當時名氣相對不大的戴高樂將軍沒有流亡並以滿腔熱血號召祖國抗擊納粹侵略分子，今天的法國會是怎樣一副情況？ | On a more positive note, where would France be today, if, in June 1940, the then-relatively unknown General Charles de Gaulle had not gone into exile and delivered his passionate call for his country to resist the Nazi invaders? | 翻譯成中文。 |
如果那一年不是丘吉爾成為英國首相，西方會怎麼樣？ | Where would the West be had anyone other than Winston Churchill become British prime minister that year? | 翻譯成中文。 |
美國也遇到過類似的關鍵時刻，肯尼迪在他的《當仁不讓》（Profiles in Courage）中就描述過一些。 這本書寫於他成為總統之前。 | The US has also had its share of such pivotal moments, several of which were described by John F. Kennedy in his book Profiles in Courage, which he wrote before becoming president. | 翻譯成中文。 |
比如，為了拯救聯盟，國務卿韋伯斯特（Daniel Webster）支援1850年妥協案（Compromise of 1850），儘管他憎恨奴隸制。 | For example, Secretary of State Daniel Webster supported the Compromise of 1850, despite his hatred of slavery, in order to save the union. | 翻譯成中文。 |
類似地，為了捍衛個人不能因為追溯法被判有罪的美國司法原則，塔夫特（Robert Taft）譴責紐倫堡審判，儘管他憎恨納粹。 | Similarly, Robert Taft denounced the Nuremberg Trials, despite his hatred of the Nazis, to defend the fundamental US legal principle that a person could not be criminally charged on the basis of a retroactive statute. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Webster and Taft, like the six others that Kennedy examined, risked political and reputational ruin to take difficult decisions, because they believed themselves to be defending the best interests of their country. | 韋伯斯特和塔夫特，以及肯尼迪所考察的其他六人，冒著政治和名譽掃地的風險做出了艱難的決定，因為他們相信自己是為了捍衛國家的利益。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Such political courage is not a thing of the past. | 這一政治勇氣不是過去的專屬。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
上週，11為英國保守黨議員批評首相梅政府的“亨利八世權力”——在不經議會批准的情況下制定新法或取消舊法的威權。 | Last week, 11 Conservative members of the British parliament balked at giving Prime Minister Theresa May’s government “Henry VIII powers” – the authority to create new laws or eliminate old ones, without parliamentary approval. | 翻譯成中文。 |
在前檢察長多米尼克·格里夫（Dominic Grieve）的領導下，反叛的保守黨議員們不惜一切代價拒絕這一做法。 | Led by former Attorney General Dominic Grieve, the rebel Tory MPs refused to countenance such a step, regardless of the cost. | 翻譯成中文。 |
And that cost turned out to be high: Grieve received death threats, and others were sacked by the Tory leadership. | 而代價確實高昂：格里夫受到了死亡威脅，其他人也受到了保守黨領導層的抨擊。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The US today is one place where such bravery and selflessness cannot be glimpsed. | 在今天的美國，這樣的勇氣和無私難覓其蹤。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但是，當總統特朗普的佔國會多數的共和黨想要推行有利於美國最富裕家庭、卻讓已經負債累累的國家在增加1萬多億美元債務的稅收法案時，這樣的勇氣更加不可或缺。 | Yet, as President Donald Trump and a majority of Congressional Republicans attempt to pass a tax bill that would benefit America’s wealthiest households at the expense of saddling the country with more than $1 trillion in additional debt, such courage could not be more necessary. | 翻譯成中文。 |
US Republicans have long decried any measure that increases the US budget deficit. | 美國共和黨向來批評一切會增加美國預算赤字的措施。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Rob Portman of Ohio even served as Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget under President George W Bush. | 俄亥俄州的羅伯·波特曼（Rob Portman）甚至擔任過小布什總統的白宮行政和預算管理局（Office of Management and Budget）主任。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但如今他們支援將導致赤字增幅比奧巴馬總統有過之而無不及的減稅計劃。 | Yet now they support tax cuts that will cause the deficit to grow as much, if not more, than it did under President Barack Obama. | 翻譯成中文。 |
（應該指出，奧巴馬是為了避免大蕭條重現才大幅舉債的，而不是為了給富人節省巨大的稅收開支。 ） | (And Obama, it should be noted, was attempting to stave off another Great Depression, not to deliver big tax savings to wealthy donors.) | 翻譯成中文。 |
平心而論，七位共和黨參議員——緬因州的蘇珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）、田納西州的羅伯特·考克（Robert Corker）、亞利桑那州的傑夫·弗萊克（Jeff Flake）和約翰·麥凱恩（John McCain）、威斯康辛州的羅恩·約翰遜（Ron Johnson）、阿拉斯加州的麗莎·莫爾科夫斯基（Lisa Murkowski）以及佛羅里達州的馬可·盧比奧（Marco Rubio）——都表達了對該法案的擔憂。 | To be sure, seven Republican senators – Susan Collins of Maine, Robert Corker of Tennessee, Jeff Flake and John McCain of Arizona, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Marco Rubio of Florida – have voiced concerns about the bill. | 翻譯成中文。 |
These concerns echo more fundamental fears, voiced by the same senators to varying degrees, that the Trump administration is doing serious harm to US institutions. | 這些擔憂與這幾位參議員都或明或暗地表達過的更加根本性的顧慮遙相呼應：特朗普政府正在給美國的制度造成嚴重傷害。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
But even these senators now appear to have fallen into line, effectively promising to deliver Trump an important legislative victory that will help to buttress his floundering presidency, while deepening inequality in the longer term. | 但即便是這些參議員，現在也眼看就要就範，向特朗普妥協以令他實現有利於其搖搖欲墜的總統生涯，但同時會深化長期不平等的重要立法勝利。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
In doing so, they are putting tribal partisan loyalty above concern for their country. | 如此，他們將黨派忠誠置於國家擔憂之上。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
當然，很難要求麥凱恩拿出更多的英雄氣概。 | Of course, it is hard to ask for more heroism from McCain. | 翻譯成中文。 |
他在越南的五年戰俘生涯只有特朗普發出質疑，而如今他與腦癌的不懈鬥爭也將進一步加深大部分美國人對他的尊敬。 | His courage as a prisoner of war for five years in Vietnam seems to be doubted only by Trump, and the dignified way he is battling brain cancer today has only heightened the esteem in which most Americans hold him. | 翻譯成中文。 |
But the fact is that McCain is now backing away from his call, made on his return to the Senate after brain surgery, for a return to the “old way of legislating in the Senate,” including thorough public committee hearings on bills. | 但事實是麥凱恩正在與自己在腦部手術後返回參議院時所發出的號召漸行漸遠，當時他說要回歸“參議院昔日的立法方式”，包括對法案的公開聽證委員會。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
麥凱恩的亞利桑那州參議院同事同樣也面臨食言而肥的局面。 | McCain’s fellow senator from Arizona is similarly failing to back word with deed. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Flake, whose memoir is called The Conscience of a Conservative, recently delivered a searing speech on the Senate floor denouncing Trump, whom Flake sees as threatening American “principles, freedoms, and institutions,” disregarding “truth and decency,” and engaging in petty and “reckless provocations.” | 用《一個保守主義者的良心》（The Conscience of a Conservative）為自己的回憶錄命名的弗萊克最近在參議院發表了熱情的演講，批評了特朗普。 弗萊克說特朗普威脅著美國的“原則、自由和制度”，他不尊重“事實和體面”，經常搞一些小家子氣的“不計後果的挑釁”。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但弗萊克也將腆著臉支援特朗普的稅收法案。 | Yet Flake will support Trump’s tax bill without so much as a grimace. | 翻譯成中文。 |
莫爾科夫斯基和柯林斯在阻止特朗普支援的取消2010年平價醫療法並用更殘酷的醫療法案取而代之的行動中扮演了關鍵角色。 | Murkowski and Collins played a vital role in preventing the Trump-supported repeal of the 2010 Affordable Care Act and its replacement with a much crueler health-care bill. | 翻譯成中文。 |
考克也曾表現出和特朗普劃清界限的姿態。 | Corker, too, has presented himself as somehow apart from the Trumpian mire. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Yet, when it comes to tax cuts for the rich, these figures are as willing as any firm Trump acolyte to trade their honor for the approval of their tribe. | 但在為富人減稅的問題上，這些人和堅定的特朗普陣營成員一樣，心甘情願地用榮譽換取組織的認可。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Years from now, some young and ambitious politician will survey the Trump presidency and, in an effort to explain the events that are unfolding before us, pen a Kennedyesque Profiles in Cowardice focused on Republicans’ lack of personal integrity. | 多年後，一些雄心勃勃的年輕政客將考察特朗普的總統生涯，為發生在我們眼前的事件做出解釋，他們會借用肯尼迪的標題，寫一部《臨陣脫逃》（Profiles in Cowardice），集中描寫共和黨人的不健全人格。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The question is what will have become of American democracy by then. | 問題是到那時美國的民主會變成什麼樣。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The World’s Priciest Stock Market | 全世界最貴的股市 | 翻譯成英文。 |
NEW HAVEN – The level of stock markets differs widely across countries. | 紐黑文—全球各國股市水平不一而足。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
And right now, the United States is leading the world. | 眼下，是美國引領全世界。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
每個人都想知道這是為什麼——以及當前股市水平是否合理。 | What everyone wants to know is why – and whether its stock market’s current level is justified. | 翻譯成中文。 |
我們可以通過市盈率，對國家間的差異進行簡單的直覺性衡量。 | We can get a simple intuitive measure of the differences between countries by looking at price-earnings ratios. | 翻譯成中文。 |
I have long advocated the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio that John Campbell (now at Harvard University) and I developed 30 years ago. | 我一直主張用約翰·坎貝爾（John Campbell，現在在哈佛大學任教）和我在30年前所開發的經週期調整的市盈率（CAPE）來衡量股市。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
CAPE市盈率是用真實（經通脹調整的）股價除以十年真實每股收益平均值。 | The CAPE ratio is the real (inflation-adjusted) price of a share divided by a ten-year average of real earnings per share. | 翻譯成中文。 |
倫敦巴克萊銀行（Barclays Bank）計算了26個國家的CAPE市盈率（我為巴克萊的CAPE市盈率相關產品提供顧問）。 | Barclays Bank in London compiles the CAPE ratios for 26 countries (I consult for Barclays on its products related to the CAPE ratio). | 翻譯成中文。 |
As of December 29, the CAPE ratio is highest for the US. | 到12月29日，CAPE市盈率最高的國家是美國。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Let’s consider what these ratios mean. | 我們來看看CAPE市盈率的意義。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
擁有股票即代表你對公司盈利擁有長期索取權，公司可以將盈利用於向所有人發放股票紅利，或進行再投資從而在未來給股東提供更多的紅利。 | Ownership of stock represents a long-term claim on a company’s earnings, which the company can pay to the owners of shares as dividends or reinvest to provide the shareholders more dividends in the future. | 翻譯成中文。 |
公司股票不僅僅是對明年盈利的索取權，也不僅僅是對後年盈利的索取權。 | A share in a company is not just a claim on next year’s earnings, or on earnings the year after that. | 翻譯成中文。 |
成功的公司會持續幾十年乃至幾百年。 | Successful companies last for decades, even centuries. | 翻譯成中文。 |
So, to arrive at a valuation for a country’s stock market, we need to forecast the growth rate of earnings and dividends for an interval considerably longer than a year. | 因此，要想得到一國股市的估值，我們需要預測遠遠長於一年的時期的增盈利和紅利長率。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
We really want to know what the earnings will do over the next ten or 20 years. | 我們真的想知道未來十年或20年後盈利會怎麼樣。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
But how can one be confident of long-term forecasts of earnings growth across countries? | 但如何能夠確定各國長期盈利增長預測呢？ | 翻譯成英文。 |