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在為股市定價時，人們似乎並不依賴於對未來十年盈利的優良預測。 | In pricing stock markets, people don’t seem to be relying on any good forecast of the next ten years’ earnings. | 翻譯成中文。 |
They just seem to look at the past ten years, which are already done and gone, but also known and tangible. | 他們似乎只看過去十年，這些都已是前塵往事，但它們是已知、有形的。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
But when Campbell and I studied earnings growth in the US with long historical data, we found that it has not been very amenable to extrapolation. | 但坎貝爾和我在用長期歷史資料研究美國的盈利增長時，發現它並不十分符合外推法。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Since 1881, the correlation of the past decade’s real earnings growth with the price-earnings ratio is a positive 0.32. | 自1881年以來，過去十年的真實盈利增長和市盈率的相關性為正0. | 翻譯成英文。 |
32。 但CAPE市盈率和未來十年真實盈利增長的相關性為零。 | But there is zero correlation between the CAPE ratio and the next ten years’ real earnings growth. | 翻譯成中文。 |
真實標註普爾綜合股價指數成分股過去十年每股收益增長與未來十年真實盈利增長為負相關（1881年以來為-17%）。 | And real earnings growth per share for the S&P Composite Stock Price Index over the previous ten years was negatively correlated (-17% since 1881) with real earnings growth over the subsequent ten years. | 翻譯成中文。 |
That’s the opposite of momentum. | 這是逆勢而動。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
It means that good news about earnings growth in the past decade is (slightly) bad news about earnings growth in the future. | 這意味著過去十年中的盈利增長利好訊息對於未來盈利增長是（小）利空。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Essentially the same sort of thing happens with US inflation and the bond market. | 美國通貨膨脹和債券市場也表現出差不多的關係。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
你也許會認為，當有證據表明債券存續期內通脹會變高時，長期利率會趨於高企，從而補償投資者預期的美元購買力下降。 | One might think that long-term interest rates tend to be high when there is evidence that there will be higher inflation over the life of the bond, to compensate investors for the expected decline in the dollar’s purchasing power. | 翻譯成中文。 |
我們發現，自1913年美國勞工統計局開始統計消費物價指數以來，長期利率和未來幾十年中十年通貨膨脹率幾乎不相關。 | Using data since 1913, when the consumer price index computed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics starts, we find that the there is almost no correlation between long-term interest rates and ten-year inflation rates over succeeding decades. | 翻譯成中文。 |
某十年期的總通貨膨脹和下一個十年期的總通貨膨脹呈現正相關，但相關性只有2%。 | While positive, the correlation between one decade’s total inflation and the next decade’s total inflation is only 2%. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但債券市場的走勢好像它們認為通脹可以外推一樣。 | But bond markets act as if they think inflation can be extrapolated. | 翻譯成中文。 |
長期利率總是在過去十年通脹呈現高企的時期高企。 | Long-term interest rates tend to be high when the last decade’s inflation was high. | 翻譯成中文。 |
US long-term bond yields, such as the ten-year Treasury yield, are highly positively correlated (70% since 1913) with the previous ten years’ inflation. | 美國長期債券（如十年期國債）收益率與過去十年通貨膨脹呈現出高正相關性（1913年以來為70%）。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但國債收益率與未來十年通貨膨脹率之間的相關性只有28%。 | But the correlation between the Treasury yield and the inflation rate over the next ten years is only 28%. | 翻譯成中文。 |
How can we square investors’ behavior with the famous assertion that it is hard to beat the market? | 我們如何解釋投資者的行為和市場不可戰勝的著名論斷之間的矛盾？ | 翻譯成英文。 |
日益依靠資料分析和積極交易為何沒有意味著，隨著市場變得日益有效，一切剩餘的確保反常利潤的機會都會因為競爭而消失？ | Why haven’t growing reliance on data analytics and aggressive trading meant that, as markets become more efficient over time, all remaining opportunities to secure abnormal profits are competed away? | 翻譯成中文。 |
經濟理論提供了足夠的理由認為長期投資機會不會從市場上消失，即使有非常多非常聰明的人在交易，哈佛大學的安德烈·施萊佛（Andrei Shleifer）和芝加哥大學的羅伯特·維什尼（Robert Vishny）的工作就是一例。 | Economic theory, as exemplified by the work of Andrei Shleifer at Harvard and Robert Vishny of the University of Chicago, offers ample reason to expect that long-term investment opportunities will never be eliminated from markets, even when there are a lot of very smart people trading. | 翻譯成中文。 |
這把我們帶回到是什麼讓美國股市高於其他所有國家這一謎題。 | This brings us back to the mystery of what’s driving the US stock market higher than all others. | 翻譯成中文。 |
It’s not the “Trump effect,” or the effect of the recent cut in the US corporate tax rate. | 不是“特朗普效應”，也不是最近的美國公司稅率下降。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
After all, the US has pretty much had the world’s highest CAPE ratio ever since President Barack Obama’s second term began in 2013. | 畢竟，自2013年奧巴馬總統第二個任期伊始開始，美國CAPE市盈率便基本一直是世界最高。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
將高速盈利增長進行外推也不是主要因素，因為標註普爾指數最新真實每股收益只比十年前（2008年金融危機爆發前夕）的峰值高了6%。 | Nor is extrapolation of rapid earnings growth a significant factor, given that the latest real earnings per share for the S&P index are only 6% above their peak about ten years earlier, before the 2008 financial crisis erupted. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Part of the reason for America’s world-beating CAPE ratio may be its higher rate of share repurchases, though share repurchases have become a global phenomenon. | 美國CAPE市盈率高居世界之最的部分原因在以其股票回購率較高，儘管股票回購已成為一種全球現象。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Higher CAPE ratios in the US may also reflect a stronger psychology of fear about the replacement of jobs by machines. | 美國CAPE市盈率較高可能 還反映了更大的擔憂心理——擔憂就業崗位被機器人取代。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The flip side of that fear, as I argued in the third edition of my book Irrational Exuberance, is a stronger desire to own capital in a free-market country with an association with computers. | 我在我的書《非理性繁榮》（Irrational Exuberance）第三版中指出，這一擔憂的背面，是更大的渴望——渴望擁有一個與計算機強強聯合的自由市場國家的資本。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
真相是你無法說清楚美國股市價格高昂的全部原因。 | The truth is that it is impossible to pin down the full cause of the high price of the US stock market. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The lack of any clear justification for its high CAPE ratio should remind all investors of the importance of diversification, and that the overall US stock market should not be given too much weight in a portfolio. | 美國CAPE市盈率高企難以找到明確的依據，這應該令所有投資者認識到多樣化的重要性，以及不應該在投資組合中賦予美國股市全體過高的權重。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The Coming Bear Market? | 熊市將臨？ | 翻譯成英文。 |
NEW HAVEN – The US stock market today is characterized by a seemingly unusual combination of very high valuations, following a period of strong earnings growth, and very low volatility. | 發自紐黑文——當前美國股市的特點是一個看似不尋常的組合：經歷了強勁盈利增長期後的極高估值，加上極低的波動幅度。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
那麼為什麼這些表面上相沖突的資訊意味著美國存在著走入熊市的可能性？ | What do these ostensibly conflicting messages imply about the likelihood that the United States is headed toward a bear market? | 翻譯成中文。 |
To answer that question, we must look to past bear markets. | 為了回答這個問題，我們必須回顧過去的一系列熊市。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
這首先需要我們準確地定義熊市，而當今的媒體則將股價下跌20％定義為“經典”或“傳統”熊市。 | And that requires us to define precisely what a bear market entails. The media nowadays delineate a “classic” or “traditional” bear market as a 20% decline in stock prices. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但這個定義在1990年代以前的媒體報道中是不存在的，也沒有跡象表明是由誰確立的。 | That definition does not appear in any media outlet before the 1990s, and there has been no indication of who established it. | 翻譯成中文。 |
它可能源自於1987年10月19日的經歷，當時美國股市在一天內下跌了20％以上。 | It may be rooted in the experience of October 19, 1987, when the stock market dropped by just over 20% in a single day. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Attempts to tie the term to the “Black Monday” story may have resulted in the 20% definition, which journalists and editors probably simply copied from one another. | 將這個術語與“黑色星期一”事件聯絡在一起的嘗試可能催生了與20％下跌有關的定義，而那些記者和編輯們可能只是一個接一個地複製前人的話語而已。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
無論如何，20％的數字現在已經被廣泛接受為熊市的指標。 | In any case, that 20% figure is now widely accepted as an indicator of a bear market. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但關於這種下跌究竟以多長時間為限則似乎並沒有明顯的共識。 | Where there seems to be less overt consensus is on the time period for that decline. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Indeed, those past newspaper reports often didn’t mention any time period at all in their definitions of a bear market. Journalists writing on the subject apparently did not think it necessary to be precise. | 事實上在過去的報章報道中關於熊市的定義中根本沒有提到任何時間段，那些撰寫這一話題的作者顯然並不認為有必要去確切說明。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
In assessing America’s past experience with bear markets, I used that traditional 20% figure, and added my own timing rubric. | 在評估美國過去的熊市經歷時，我會用傳統的20％數字，並增加了自己設定的時間標示。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
根據我的定義，熊市前的高峰是最近的12個月高點，而隨後一年則有某個月的指數相對高點下降了20％。 | The peak before a bear market, per my definition, was the most recent 12-month high, and there should be some month in the subsequent year that is 20% lower. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Whenever there was a contiguous sequence of peak months, I took the last one. | 如果連續出現高點月份的話，我會取最後一個。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Referring to my compilation of monthly S&P Composite and related data, I found that there have been just 13 bear markets in the US since 1871. | 關於我對每月標準普爾綜合指數和相關資料的彙編，我發現自1871年以來美國只有13個熊市。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
熊市前的高峰月份出現在1892、1895、1902、1906、1916年、1929、1934、1937、1946、1961、1987，2000和2007年。 | The peak months before the bear markets occurred in 1892, 1895, 1902, 1906, 1916, 1929, 1934, 1937, 1946, 1961, 1987, 2000, and 2007. | 翻譯成中文。 |
A couple of notorious stock-market collapses – in 1968-70 and in 1973-74 – are not on the list, because they were more protracted and gradual. | 一些臭名昭著的股票市場崩盤事件——在1968~1970年和1973~1974年期間——都不在名單上，因為它們更加持久和漸進。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
一旦過去的熊市被定義，就可以開始使用我的哈佛同事約翰·Y·坎貝爾（John Y. Campbell）和我於1988年開發的預測長期股票市場回報指標來評估在那些時期之前的股票估值水平了。 | Once the past bear markets were identified, it was time to assess stock valuations prior to them, using an indicator that my Harvard colleague John Y. Campbell and I developed in 1988 to predict long-term stock-market returns. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio is found by dividing the real (inflation-adjusted) stock index by the average of ten years of earnings, with higher-than-average ratios implying lower-than-average returns. | 通過將實際（計入通脹後的）股票指數除以十年的平均收益水平，可以計算出週期調整後的市盈率比率，而如果該比率高於平均水平則意味著低於平均水平的回報。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Our research showed that the CAPE ratio is somewhat effective at predicting real returns over a ten-year period, though we did not report how well that ratio predicts bear markets. | 儘管我們沒有報告這個比率預測熊市的能力，但研究表明該比率對預測十年期間的實際收益是有一定效果的。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
This month, the CAPE ratio in the US is just above 30. That is a high ratio. | 就在本月，美國的週期調整後市盈率比率剛剛超過30，也是個很高的數字。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Indeed, between 1881 and today, the average CAPE ratio has stood at just 16.8. | 事實上，從1881年至今的平均週期調整後市盈率比率只有16. | 翻譯成英文。 |
Moreover, it has exceeded 30 only twice during that period: in 1929 and in 1997-2002. | 8，在此期間超過30的只有兩段時間：1929年和1997 ~2002年。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但這並不意味著高週期調整後市盈率比率與熊市無關。 | But that does not mean that high CAPE ratios aren’t associated with bear markets. | 翻譯成中文。 |
On the contrary, in the peak months before past bear markets, the average CAPE ratio was higher than average, at 22.1, suggesting that the CAPE does tend to rise before a bear market. | 相反，在熊市前的高點月份平均比率都會高於平均水平，在22. 1的水平，表明該比率在熊市前趨向於上升。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Moreover, the three times when there was a bear market with a below-average CAPE ratio were after 1916 (during World War I), 1934 (during the Great Depression), and 1946 (during the post-World War II recession). | 不過在1916年後（一戰），1934年（大蕭條時期）和1946年（二戰後衰退時期）也出現過3次比率低於平均水平的熊市。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
A high CAPE ratio thus implies potential vulnerability to a bear market, though it is by no means a perfect predictor. | 因此儘管它決不是完美的預測指標，但高比率也預示著熊市的潛在可能性。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
To be sure, there does seem to be some promising news. | 但可以肯定的是，似乎也存在一些讓人感覺有前景的好訊息。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
根據我的資料，自1881年以來標準普爾綜合成分股的實際收益平均每年增長1. 8％。 | According to my data, real S&P Composite stock earnings have grown 1.8% per year, on average, since 1881. | 翻譯成中文。 |
而在2016年第二季度到2017年第二季度之間實際收益增長為13. 2％，遠高於歷史年增長率 | From the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, by contrast, real earnings growth was 13.2%, well above the historical annual rate. | 翻譯成中文。 |
But this high growth does not reduce the likelihood of a bear market. | 然而這一高增長並不會減少進入熊市的可能性。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
事實上，過去熊市之前的高點月份也往往展現出較高的實際收益增長：所有13次熊市平均下來是每年13. 3％。 | In fact, peak months before past bear markets also tended to show high real earnings growth: 13.3% per year, on average, for all 13 episodes. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Moreover, at the market peak just before the biggest ever stock-market drop, in 1929-32, 12-month real earnings growth stood at 18.3%. | 此外，在1929~1932年股市出現有史以來最大跌幅之前的市場高點時期，12個月的實際收益增長率為18. 3％。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Another piece of ostensibly good news is that average stock-price volatility – measured by finding the standard deviation of monthly percentage changes in real stock prices for the preceding year – is an extremely low 1.2%. | 另一個看上去的好訊息是，股價平均波動值——通過計算前一年實際股價每月百分比變動的標準差來得出——是非常低的1. 2％。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Between 1872 and 2017, volatility was nearly three times as high, at 3.5%. | 而在1872至2017年間的波動性幾乎是上述指標的3倍，達到3. 5。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
然而這也並不意味著熊市並未臨近。 | Yet, again, this does not mean that a bear market isn’t approaching. | 翻譯成中文。 |
事實上在逐漸走向前十三個熊市前高點月的那些年中，股價波動值也是低於平均水平的，雖然當前的水平低於這些時期3. 1%的平均水平。 | In fact, stock-price volatility was lower than average in the year leading up to the peak month preceding the 13 previous US bear markets, though today’s level is lower than the 3.1% average for those periods. | 翻譯成中文。 |
At the peak month for the stock market before the 1929 crash, volatility was only 2.8%. | 在1929年崩盤之前股市的高點月，波動值只有2. 8％。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
總而言之，美國股市現在的狀況看起來就跟在過去十三個熊市中的大部分有點類似。 | In short, the US stock market today looks a lot like it did at the peaks before most of the country’s 13 previous bear markets. | 翻譯成中文。 |
This is not to say that a bear market is guaranteed: such episodes are difficult to anticipate, and the next one may still be a long way off. | 當然這並不是說熊市必定到來：這樣的事情難以預料，下一個熊市可能還有很久才會到來。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
And even if a bear market does arrive, for anyone who does not buy at the market’s peak and sell at the trough, losses tend to be less than 20%. | 即使熊市確實到來，對於任何不是在市場高峰期買入並在低谷出售的人來說，損失也往往達不到20％。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但我的分析應該成為對市場高漲情緒的一個警告。 | But my analysis should serve as a warning against complacency. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Investors who allow faulty impressions of history to lead them to assume too much stock-market risk today may be inviting considerable losses. | 對於那些在錯誤歷史印象的引導下承擔了過多股票市場風險的投資者來說，巨大的損失可能就在不遠處。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Tax Reform and Budget Deficits in America | 美國的稅收改革和預算赤字 | 翻譯成英文。 |
CAMBRIDGE – The Republican Party’s leaders in the United States House of Representatives have been hard at work for more than a year designing a major reform of personal and corporate taxes. | 坎布里奇—一年多來，美國眾議院共和黨領袖一直在竭盡全力制定個人和公司稅重大改革方案。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
隨著2018年選舉的臨近，眾議院共和黨決定要拿出一攬子改革方案，送參議院表決執行。 | With an election looming in 2018, the House Republicans are determined to deliver a reform package and send it to the Senate for enactment. | 翻譯成中文。 |
這份改革方案與1986年實施的上一次重大稅改截然不同。 | This reform will be very different from the last major tax overhaul enacted back in 1986. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The Tax Reform Act of 1986 focused on the personal income tax, lowering the top rate from 50% to 28% and cutting rates for lower-income taxpayers. | 1986年稅收改革法的重點是個人所得稅，最高個人所得稅率從50%下調到28%，同時也降低了較低收入納稅人的稅率。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
由此導致的稅收收入下降通過稅收抵扣和其他會計規則抵消，最終形成了一個在每個所得水平上都實現稅收收入中性的改革，並且是在考慮到降低稅率對提高經濟增長和應稅所得的效應之前實現。 | The revenue loss was offset by changes in tax deductions and other accounting rules, producing a reform that was revenue neutral at each income level, even without taking into account the effects of lower tax rates on increasing economic growth and taxable incomes. | 翻譯成中文。 |
In the 30 years since 1986, the tax rates for high-income taxpayers rose significantly, from 28% to 39.6%, with an extra 3.8% tax on these taxpayers’ investment income. | 1986年以來的30年中，高收入納稅人所得稅率大幅提高，從28%增長到39. 6%，而他們的投資收益還要額外繳納3. | 翻譯成英文。 |
A detailed study by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) of taxes between 1979 and 2013 concluded that while the effective tax rate fell in every quintile of the income distribution, it rose well above that 35-year average for taxpayers in the top 1% of the income distribution. | 8%的稅收。 國會預算辦公室（CBO）對1979年至2013年間稅收的詳細研究表明，儘管收入分佈的每一個五分位的有效稅率都有所下降，但對於收入分佈最頂層的1%納稅人，稅率大大高於35年平均水平。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
國會共和黨的計劃將把最高稅率重新下調到30%或以下，現在就享受較低稅率的群體也能獲得可比的降幅。 | The House Republican plan would cut the top tax rate back to 30% or lower, with comparable reductions for those now facing lower tax rates. | 翻譯成中文。 |
新稅法還將效仿加拿大，取消遺產稅，但對於納稅人死前所發生的資本收益，仍要徵稅。 | The new tax law might also follow the Canadian example and eliminate the estate tax, while imposing a tax on capital gains accrued before the taxpayer’s death. | 翻譯成中文。 |
To offset some of the resulting revenue loss, the new law might eliminate tax deductions for state and local taxes, and tax some of the fringe benefits that are currently excluded from taxable income. | 為了抵消由此帶來的一些稅收收入損失，新稅法可能會取消州和地方稅收抵扣，並對某些目前享受非稅待遇的福利性收入徵稅。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
國會共和黨的計劃與1986年稅收改革之間的重大區別在於現在的方案還將處理公司利潤和其他企業收益的稅收待遇。 | The big difference between the House Republicans’ plan and the 1986 tax reform is that the current proposal would also address the tax treatment of corporate profits and other business income. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The statutory tax rate on corporate profits is now 35%, the highest in the OECD. | 目前，法定公司利潤稅率為35%，為經合組織最高。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
新立法將把該稅率降低到25%或以下，促使資本從房地產和農業投資流向國內公司投資。 | The new legislation would reduce that rate to 25% or less, spurring a shift in capital flows away from investments in housing and agriculture, and toward domestic corporate investment. | 翻譯成中文。 |
新稅法還有望通過改變美國公司海外分支利潤的稅收待遇刺激國內公司投資。 | The new tax law is also likely to boost domestic corporate investment by changing the tax treatment of the profits of US corporations’ foreign subsidiaries. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Under current law, a subsidiary pays tax on profits to the government of the country where those profits are earned. | 根據現有法律，美國公司海外分支向利潤產生地政府繳納利潤稅。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
然後它就可以將稅後利潤用於美國之外的世界任何地區的投資。 | It can then invest the after-tax profits anywhere in the world outside the US. | 翻譯成中文。 |
But if it brings those funds back to the US to invest or pay dividends to shareholders, it must pay the full US corporate tax rate, with a credit for the tax already paid to the foreign government. | 但如果它想把這些資金轉移到美國進行投資或向股東支付股利，就必須按照美國公司稅率全額納稅，已經支付給外國政府的稅額可以免徵。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
這一對匯回資金的懲罰導致美國企業將這些稅收利潤留在海外。 | This penalty on repatriating funds causes US firms to leave those after-tax profits abroad. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The US Treasury estimates that American subsidiaries’ offshore investments stand at more than $2.5 trillion. | 美國財政部估算，美國公司海外分支的離岸投資規模超過2. 5萬億美元。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
This method of taxing the profits of foreign subsidiaries is unique to the US. | 這一向海外分支利潤徵稅的方式為美國獨有。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
即使是其他工業國，也採用所謂的領地原則，本國公司海外分支的利潤轉移回國不需要或僅需要略微繳納額外稅收。 | Every other industrial country uses what is known as the territorial method, in which profits of foreign subsidiaries can be brought home with little or no extra tax. | 翻譯成中文。 |
By shifting the US toward such a system, the Republican proposal would stimulate repatriation of some of the funds that have been accumulated abroad, as well as increased inflows of future foreign profits. | 共和黨的方案將把美國也改成這種制度，這將刺激部分囤積在海外的資金迴流，也會增加未來海外利潤流入。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
What does all this mean for the budget deficit? | 所有這些對預算意味著什麼？ | 翻譯成英文。 |
The CBO estimates that the deficit will rise from 3.4% of GDP to more than 4% over the next ten years, even with no change in tax rules. | CBO估算，即使稅收規則不發生變化，未來十年赤字也將從GDP的3. 4%增加到4%以上。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The direct impact of lowering tax rates on personal income and corporate profits will be to reduce tax revenue and increase the budget deficit. | 降低個人所得稅率和公司利潤稅率的直接影響將是降低稅收收入，增加預算赤字。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
But this will be offset by limits on personal tax deductions and exclusions, and the lower tax rates on personal income will boost taxable incomes as individuals increase earnings and compensation shifts from fringe benefits to taxable cash. | 但限制個人稅收抵扣和豁免將抵消這一效應，而隨著個人收入增加和薪酬從福利性收入轉變為應稅現金，個人所得稅率的降低還能夠提振應稅所得。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Likewise, the move to a territorial tax system will raise taxable profits, especially in the short term, as companies repatriate some of the existing stock of overseas funds. | 類似地，將公司稅制改為領地制將提高應稅利潤，特別是在短期，因為公司將匯回部分海外資金存量。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Although the net tax changes may widen the budget deficit in the short term, the incentive effects of lower tax rates and the increased accumulation of capital will mean faster economic growth and higher real incomes, both of which will cause rising taxable incomes and lower long-term deficits. | 儘管淨稅收變化可能會在短期擴大預算赤字，但降低稅率的激勵效應和資本積累的增加意味著經濟增長加速和真實所得提高，這兩者有利於提高應稅所得、縮小長期赤字。 | 翻譯成英文。 |