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在一個以泛聯盟政治制度為基礎的真正的經濟聯盟中,希臘、西班牙和其他國家的財政問題不會演變到如今的威脅到聯盟本身生存的程度。
In a true economic union, underpinned by union-wide political institutions, the financial problems of Greece, Spain, and the others would not have blown up to their current proportions, threatening the existence of the union itself.
翻譯成中文。
就拿美國來說吧。
Consider the United States.
翻譯成中文。
根本不會有人關心(比如)佛羅里達州對美國其餘部分的經常專案赤字,儘管我們可以大膽猜測這筆赤字不會小(因為大量來自其他地區的依靠退休福利生活的退休人士生活在佛羅里達州)。
No one even keeps track of, say, Florida’s current-account deficit with the rest of the country, although we can safely guess that it is huge (since the state is home to many retirees living off benefits that come from elsewhere).
翻譯成中文。
When Florida’s state government goes bankrupt, Florida’s banks continue to operate normally, because they are under federal rather than state jurisdiction.
當佛羅里達州政府陷入破產時,佛羅里達銀行仍能正常經營,因為監管它們的是聯邦政府,而不是州政府。
翻譯成英文。
When Florida’s banks go belly-up, state finances are insulated, because the banks are ultimately the responsibility of federal institutions.
當佛羅里達州銀行倒閉時,州財政不會受到影響,因為說到底銀行是聯邦機構的責任。
翻譯成英文。
當佛羅里達州工人失業時,他們從華盛頓獲得失業救濟。
When Florida’s workers become unemployed, they get unemployment checks from Washington, DC.
翻譯成中文。
And when Florida’s voters are disenchanted about the economy, they do not riot outside the state capital; they put pressure on their representatives in Congress to push for changes in federal policies.
而當佛羅里達州選民對經濟徹底失望時,他們也不會在州首府鬧事; 他們會對他們在國會的代表施壓,要求聯邦政策有所反應。
翻譯成英文。
Nobody would argue that US states have an abundance of sovereignty.
沒人會爭論說美國各州擁有充分的主權。
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The relationship between sovereignty and democracy is also misunderstood.
主權和民主的關係也被誤解了。
翻譯成英文。
Not all restrictions on the exercise of sovereign power are undemocratic.
並非所有對主權權力的執行的限制都是非民主的。
翻譯成英文。
政治學詞叫“民主授權”,說的是君主可能甘願自縛雙手(通過國際承諾或授權自治機構)以追求更好的結果。
Political scientists talk about “democratic delegation” – the idea that a sovereign might want to tie its hands (through international commitments or delegation to autonomous agencies) in order to achieve better outcomes.
翻譯成中文。
The delegation of monetary policy to an independent central bank is the archetypal example: in the service of price stability, daily management of monetary policy is insulated from politics.
將貨幣政策授權給獨立央行就是原生的例子:在維持價格穩定這個問題上,貨幣政策的日常管理從政治中獨立出來了。
翻譯成英文。
Even if selective limitations on sovereignty may enhance democratic performance, there is no guarantee that all limitations implied by market integration would do so.
即便是對主權施以有選擇的限制也有可能加強民主表現,沒人能夠保證市場一體化所隱含的限制能夠做到這一點。
翻譯成英文。
在民主政治中,授權將得到仔細審議,並被限制於有限的領域——那些問題具有高度技術性且黨派差異不大的領域。
In domestic politics, delegation is carefully calibrated and restricted to a few areas where the issues tend to be highly technical and partisan differences are not large.
翻譯成中文。
真正能夠強化民主的全球化會尊重這些界限。
A truly democracy-enhancing globalization would respect these boundaries.
翻譯成中文。
其所施加的限制將與民主授權一致,大致上遵循能夠增進國內民主自由化的有限的程式正規化(比如透明度、可問責性、代議制、使用科學證據,等等)。
It would impose only those limits that are consistent with democratic delegation, possibly along with a limited number of procedural norms (such as transparency, accountability, representativeness, use of scientific evidence, etc.) that enhance democratic deliberation at home.
翻譯成中文。
As the American example illustrates, it is possible to give up on sovereignty – as Florida, Texas, California, and the other US states have done – without giving up on democracy.
正如美國的例子所標明的,放棄主權——佛羅里達、德克薩斯、加利福尼亞,美國各州都是如此——並不一定意味著放棄民主。
翻譯成英文。
但將市場一體化與民主結合起來要求創造代議制、可問責的跨國政治機構。
But combining market integration with democracy requires the creation of supranational political institutions that are representative and accountable.
翻譯成中文。
如果全球化限制了國內政策偏好的表達,同時民主空間又無法在地區/全球水平進行補償性擴張,那麼民主和全球化之間的衝突就會激烈起來。
The conflict between democracy and globalization becomes acute when globalization restricts the domestic articulation of policy preferences without a compensating expansion of democratic space at the regional/global level.
翻譯成中文。
西班牙和希臘的政治動盪表明,歐洲已經陷入了這一錯誤的區域。
Europe is already on the wrong side of this boundary, as the political unrest in Spain and Greece indicates.
翻譯成中文。
That is where my political trilemma begins to bite: We cannot have globalization, democracy, and national sovereignty simultaneously.
這就是我的政治三難:我們無法同時實現全球化、民主和國家主權。
翻譯成英文。
我們必須在三者中選擇兩個。
We must choose two among the three.
翻譯成中文。
If European leaders want to maintain democracy, they must make a choice between political union and economic disintegration.
如果歐洲領導人要維持民主,那麼他們必須在政治聯盟和經濟分裂中選擇。
翻譯成英文。
他們要麼選擇完全放棄經濟主權,要麼積極用經濟主權來為本國公民造福。
They must either explicitly renounce economic sovereignty or actively put it to use for the benefit of their citizens.
翻譯成中文。
前一個選擇要求他們向自己的選民說實話,並建設超越民族國家水平的民主空間。
The first would entail coming clean with their own electorates and building democratic space above the level of the nation-state.
翻譯成中文。
後一個選擇意味著放棄貨幣聯盟,從而得以實施旨在提振長期復甦的國家貨幣和財政政策。
The second would mean giving up on monetary union in order to be able to deploy national monetary and fiscal policies in the service of longer-term recovery.
翻譯成中文。
這一選擇被拖得越久,最終必須付出的經濟和政治成本就越大。
The longer this choice is postponed, the greater the economic and political cost that ultimately will have to be paid.
翻譯成中文。
經濟學該如何從經濟危機中倖存下來
How Economics Survived the Economic Crisis
翻譯成中文。
LONDON – The tenth anniversary of the start of the Great Recession was the occasion for an elegant essay by the Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman, who noted how little the debate about the causes and consequences of the crisis have changed over the last decade.
發自倫敦——在“大衰退”爆發十週年之際,諾貝爾經濟學獎獲得者,經濟學家保羅·克魯格曼(Paul Krugman)撰寫了一篇雅緻的論文,指出過去十年來關於危機成因和後果的辯論基本上無甚變化。
翻譯成英文。
鑑於1930年代的經濟大蕭條催生了凱恩斯主義經濟學,而1970年代的滯脹則誕生了米爾頓·弗裡德曼(Milton Friedman)的貨幣主義,但“大衰退”卻並未產生類似的智力轉變。
Whereas the Great Depression of the 1930s produced Keynesian economics, and the stagflation of the 1970s produced Milton Friedman’s monetarism, the Great Recession has produced no similar intellectual shift.
翻譯成中文。
這對那些年輕的經濟學學子來說可算是非常令人沮喪的,因為他們希望這個專業至少能做出一個有恰當挑戰性的迴應。
This is deeply depressing to young students of economics, who hoped for a suitably challenging response from the profession.
翻譯成中文。
但為何卻一片沉寂呢?
Why has there been none?
翻譯成中文。
Krugman’s answer is typically ingenious: the old macroeconomics was, as the saying goes, “good enough for government work.” It prevented another Great Depression.
克魯格曼的答案果然極為巧妙:正如大家所認定的那樣,舊有的巨集觀經濟學“對政府工作來說已經足夠了”,也阻止了另一場大蕭條。
翻譯成英文。
所以學生們應該把自己的夢想先放一放,先把課程學好。
So students should lock up their dreams and learn their lessons.
翻譯成中文。
A decade ago, two schools of macroeconomists contended for primacy: the New Classical – or the “freshwater” – School, descended from Milton Friedman and Robert Lucas and headquartered at the University of Chicago, and the New Keynesian, or “saltwater,” School, descended from John Maynard Keynes, and based at MIT and Harvard.
十年前,兩大流派的巨集觀經濟學家都在爭奪制高點:源自米爾頓·弗裡德曼和羅伯特·盧卡斯(Robert Lucas),大本營位於芝加哥大學的新古典學派——或所謂“淡水”; 沿襲於約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯(John Maynard Keynes),以麻省理工學院和哈佛大學為基地的新凱恩斯學派,或稱“鹹水”。
翻譯成英文。
Freshwater-types believed that budgets deficits were always bad, whereas the saltwater camp believed that deficits were beneficial in a slump.
淡水派認為預算赤字總是不好的,而鹹水陣營相信赤字在經濟處於低谷時是有益的。
翻譯成英文。
克魯格曼是一位新凱恩斯主義者,他的論文旨在表明“大衰退”正好證明了標準的新凱恩斯主義模式的有效性。
Krugman is a New Keynesian, and his essay was intended to show that the Great Recession vindicated standard New Keynesian models.
翻譯成中文。
但克魯格曼的敘述存在嚴重的問題。
But there are serious problems with Krugman’s narrative.
翻譯成中文。
For starters, there is his answer to Queen Elizabeth II’s now-famous question: “Why did no one see it coming?”
首先是他對英女王伊麗莎白二世那個“為什麼沒有人意識到危機即將來臨? ”的著名問題的回答。
翻譯成英文。
克魯格曼樂觀地迴應說新凱恩斯主義者當時正在專心關注其他問題。
Krugman’s cheerful response is that the New Keynesians were looking the other way.
翻譯成中文。
他們的失敗不是理論有問題,而是“資料收集”有誤,他們“忽視”了金融體系的重大制度變遷。
Theirs was a failure not of theory, but of “data collection.” They had “overlooked” crucial institutional changes in the financial system.
翻譯成中文。
While this was regrettable, it raised no “deep conceptual issue” – that is, it didn’t demand that they reconsider their theory.
雖然這確實令人扼腕,但也並未暴露出“深層次的概念問題”——也就是說這並不要求他們去重新思考自己的理論。
翻譯成英文。
在危機來臨之時,新凱恩斯主義者奮起迎接挑戰。
Faced with the crisis itself, the New Keynesians had risen to the challenge.
翻譯成中文。
他們重新拾起了上世紀五六十年代的粘性價格模型,而該模型也給他們指明瞭三點:首先,鉅額預算赤字不會推高近乎為零的利率;
They dusted off their old sticky-price models from the 1950s and 1960s, which told them three things. First, very large budget deficits would not drive up near-zero interest rates.
翻譯成中文。
Second, even large increases in the monetary base would not lead to high inflation, or even to corresponding increases in broader monetary aggregates.
其次,基礎貨幣量的更大幅增長不會導致高通脹,甚至不會導致更廣意貨幣總量的相應增長;
翻譯成英文。
第三,政府支出和稅收的變化會產生正面的國民收入乘數,而且該數字基本上一定會大於1。
And, third, there would be a positive national income multiplier, almost surely greater than one, from changes in government spending and taxation.
翻譯成中文。
這些主張為2008年經濟崩盤後的預算赤字鋪平了道路。
These propositions made the case for budget deficits in the aftermath of the collapse of 2008.
翻譯成中文。
基於這些原則的政策得以施行而且運作得“極為良好”。
Policies based on them were implemented and worked “remarkably well.”
翻譯成中文。
而新凱恩斯主義政策取得如此成就的諷刺性作用在於允許“我們這行中那些更為缺乏靈活性的成員(芝加哥的新古典學派)以一種在過去事件中不可能發生的方式去忽略這類事件”,因此這兩大學派——說不上誰比誰更好——都面臨著重新思考自身基本原則的挑戰。
The success of New Keynesian policy had the ironic effect of allowing “the more inflexible members of our profession [the New Classicals from Chicago] to ignore events in a way they couldn’t in past episodes.” So neither school – sect might be the better word – was challenged to re-think first principles.
翻譯成中文。
這種對崩盤前和崩盤後經濟學流變的機智回顧卻未能解答一系列關鍵問題。
This clever history of pre- and post-crash economics leaves key questions unanswered.
翻譯成中文。
首先,如果新凱恩斯主義經濟學真的“足夠良好”,那為何新凱恩斯主義經濟學家未能敦促人們對2007 ~2008年的崩潰加以防範?
First, if New Keynesian economics was “good enough,” why didn’t New Keynesian economists urge precautions against the collapse of 2007-2008?
翻譯成中文。
畢竟他們的推算也未排除崩盤的可能性。
After all, they did not rule out the possibility of such a collapse a priori.
翻譯成中文。
Krugman admits to a gap in “evidence collection.” But the choice of evidence is theory-driven.
克魯格曼承認在“證據收集”方面存在差距,但證據的選擇是由理論驅動的。
翻譯成英文。
在我看來,新凱恩斯主義經濟學家們對銀行系統的不穩定性視而不見,因為他們的模型告訴他們金融機構可以準確地為風險定價。
In my view, New Keynesian economists turned a blind eye to instabilities building up in the banking system, because their models told them that financial institutions could accurately price risk.
翻譯成中文。
So there was a “deep conceptual issue” involved in New Keynesian analysis: its failure to explain how banks might come to “underprice risk worldwide,” as Alan Greenspan put it.
所以在新凱恩斯主義分析中曾經出現了一個“深層次的概念問題”:它無力解釋銀行如何會像艾倫·格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)所說的那樣“全球一致地低估了​風險”。
翻譯成英文。
其二,克魯格曼沒有解釋為何在2008~2009年被證明有效的凱恩斯主義政策會如此迅速地被財政緊縮政策逆轉和取代。
Second, Krugman fails to explain why the Keynesian policies vindicated in 2008-2009 were so rapidly reversed and replaced by fiscal austerity.
翻譯成中文。
Why didn’t policymakers stick to their stodgy fixed-price models until they had done their work?
為什麼政策制定者未能在完工之前一直堅持使用那套古板的固定價格模型呢?
翻譯成英文。
Why abandon them in 2009, when Western economies were still 4-5% below their pre-crash levels?
為什麼在2009年西方經濟體經濟總量仍然低於事件發生前水平4~5%的時候就放棄了它們呢?
翻譯成英文。
The answer I would give is that when Keynes was briefly exhumed for six months in 2008-2009, it was for political, not intellectual, reasons.
我所給出的答案是,當凱恩斯主義在2008~2009年間被短暫起用了六個月時,這是出於政治而非理智的原因。
翻譯成英文。
Because the New Keynesian models did not offer a sufficient basis for maintaining Keynesian policies once the economic emergency had been overcome, they were quickly abandoned.
由於一系列新凱恩斯主義模型在度過了經濟緊張時期後未能為凱恩斯主義政策提供充分的依據,所以很快就被拋棄了。
翻譯成英文。
克魯格曼幾乎承認了這一點:他寫道,新凱恩斯主義者“以理性行為和市場均衡為基準線,試圖通過對基準線的邊緣微調來應對經濟功能失調”。
Krugman comes close to acknowledging this: New Keynesians, he writes, “start with rational behavior and market equilibrium as a baseline, and try to get economic dysfunction by tweaking that baseline at the edges.”
翻譯成中文。
Such tweaks enable New Keynesian models to generate temporary real effects from nominal shocks, and thus justify quite radical intervention in times of emergency.
這種微調使得新凱恩斯主義模型能夠通過名義貨幣上的衝擊產生暫時性的真實作用,從而證明在緊急情況下實施相當激進的干預手段是合理的。
翻譯成英文。
但是沒有任何微調措施可以為持續的干預政策創造足夠強大的理由。
But no tweaks can create a strong enough case to justify sustained interventionist policy.
翻譯成中文。
The problem for New Keynesian macroeconomists is that they fail to acknowledge radical uncertainty in their models, leaving them without any theory of what to do in good times in order to avoid the bad times.
新凱恩斯主義巨集觀經濟學家面臨的問題在於不願承認自身模型中存在的極端不確定性,以致缺乏任何理論來指導在景氣時期應該做些什麼以避免不景氣。
翻譯成英文。
Their focus on nominal wage and price rigidities implies that if these factors were absent, equilibrium would readily be achieved.
他們對名義工資和價格剛性的關注似乎意味著倘若不存在這些因素,均衡就能被毫不費力地實現。
翻譯成英文。
They regard the financial sector as neutral, not as fundamental (capitalism’s “ephor,” as Joseph Schumpeter put it).
他們認為金融部門是中性的,而不是基礎性的——正如約瑟夫·熊彼特(Joseph Schumpeter)所說的那樣是資本主義的“監察官”。
翻譯成英文。
如果不承認這一不確定性,鹹水經濟學派必然會淪落到跟淡水學派一個德行。
Without acknowledgement of uncertainty, saltwater economics is bound to collapse into its freshwater counterpart.
翻譯成中文。
New Keynesian “tweaking” will create limited political space for intervention, but not nearly enough to do a proper job.
新凱恩斯主義的“微調”可以為干預行為創造出有限的政治空間,但還不足以恰當地完成整個工作。
翻譯成英文。
So Krugman’s argument, while provocative, is certainly not conclusive.
因此克魯格曼的論點雖然讓人覺得有點道理,但肯定還算不上是定論。
翻譯成英文。
Macroeconomics still needs to come up with a big new idea.
巨集觀經濟學還有待提出一個新的大理論來支撐。
翻譯成英文。
Four Ways to Beat HIV/AIDS
消滅艾滋病的四個辦法
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匹茲堡—在與艾滋病的戰爭中,一些故事更能說明通往全球消滅艾滋病的漫漫長路。
PITTSBURGH – In the fight against HIV/AIDS, some stories illuminate the long road to global eradication more than others.
翻譯成中文。
2009年,我在坦尚尼亞就聽說了這樣一個故事。
In 2009, I heard one such story in Tanzania.
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我訪問了一個偏遠村莊,和一位獲知自己艾滋病毒陽性的婦女對話。
I was visiting a remote village when I spoke to a woman who knew that she was HIV-positive.
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她告訴我,當時的衛生指南說,在她的CD4 輔助性T細胞(一種免疫系統中的白血球)下降到一定閾值以下之間,她不會得到治療。
She told me that the established health guidelines at the time indicated that she could not receive treatment until her count of CD4 T-helper cells, a type of white blood cell used by the immune system, had dropped below a certain threshold.
翻譯成中文。
After walking several miles to get her count checked, she arrived at the clinic only to find its testing machine broken.
她跋涉數英里去檢查CD4 輔助性T細胞,到了才發現測試機器壞掉了。
翻譯成英文。
過了一段時間,她又跋涉數英里去做檢查,但機器仍然壞著。
The machine was still inoperative the second time she made the long journey.
翻譯成中文。
Only months later, after her third trip to the clinic on foot, did she receive her cell count: her levels were far below the necessary threshold.
過了幾個月,她第三次步行前往這家醫院才成功地做了檢查,她的細胞數量已經遠遠低於閾值。
翻譯成英文。
Her treatment should have begun months before.
她應該在幾個月前就開始獲得治療。
翻譯成英文。
自1984年艾滋病第一次被識別以來,它已經殺死了3,500萬多人。
Since HIV/AIDS was first identified in 1984, it has killed more than 35 million people.
翻譯成中文。
艾滋病相關死亡人數在2005年達到峰值,隨後下降了近一半,但仍有太多的人因為這個可預防的疾病而失去生命。
Although the number of AIDS-related deaths has fallen by almost half since peaking in 2005, there are still far too many people dying from this preventable condition.
翻譯成中文。
光是在2016年,全球就有一百萬人死於與艾滋病毒有關的狀況,另有180萬人被感染。
In 2016 alone, one million people around the world died from HIV-related causes, while 1.8 million more became infected.
翻譯成中文。
與流行的故事相反,我們並沒有能夠扭轉艾滋病形勢——至少從長期看沒有。
Contrary to popular myth, we have not turned the corner on AIDS – not by a long shot.
翻譯成中文。
12月1日是世界艾滋病日,設立這個日子是為了紀念數百萬受害者和鼓勵人們消滅這個可怕的疾病。
World AIDS Day, on December 1, is an occasion to honor the millions of victims, and to recommit to ending this devastating disease.
翻譯成中文。
據聯合國艾滋病規劃署的資料,目前只有54%的艾滋病毒陽性成年人,以及43%的艾滋病毒陽性兒童,正在接受能夠拯救生命和阻止傳染的抗逆轉錄療法。
According to UNAIDS, just 54% of HIV-positive adults, and only 43% of HIV-positive children, are currently receiving the antiretroviral therapies that save lives and prevent new infections.
翻譯成中文。
With so many untreated patients, the virus will continue to spread.
得不到治療的患者如此之多,艾滋病毒必然還在繼續傳播。
翻譯成英文。
作為一家全球製藥公司的執行長,我對於我們在消滅艾滋病的全球戰爭中所做出的貢獻深感自豪。
As CEO of a global pharmaceutical company, I’m proud of the work we have done to fight HIV/AIDS around the world.
翻譯成中文。
如今,超過八百萬人——相當於發展中國家接受艾滋病治療的所有患者的近一半——需要依靠我們所生產的抗逆轉錄治療手段。
Today, more than eight million people – nearly half of all patients receiving treatment for HIV in developing countries – depend on the antiretroviral treatments that we produce.
翻譯成中文。
But for those of us on the front lines of this struggle, our work is far from over.
但對於我們這些站在這場戰爭最前線的人來說,我們的工作還遠沒有結束。
翻譯成英文。
The pharmaceutical industry has a responsibility to expand access to testing and treatment, and to help stop the spread of HIV once and for all.
製藥業有責任擴大測試和治療的普及度,幫助一勞永逸地阻止艾滋病毒傳播。
翻譯成英文。
Fulfilling four key commitments will make this goal achievable.
兌現四項關鍵承諾能夠助我們實現這一目標。
翻譯成英文。
首先,製藥公司應該做更多的事增加低成本通用藥物的普及度。
For starters, pharmaceutical companies should do more to increase the availability of low-cost, generic medicines.
翻譯成中文。
My company, Mylan, introduced the first generic once-daily pill for developing countries in 2009, and we have continually reduced its price to make it more accessible to more people.
我的公司——邁蘭製藥公司在2009年推出了第一種面向發展中國家的一日一次普通藥,此後我們一直在調降藥價,讓它走近更多的人。
翻譯成英文。
光是通過這種藥,邁蘭和其他通用藥製造商每年都能為美國政府、國際捐助人和國家衛生計劃節省45億多美元。
With this treatment alone, Mylan and other generic manufacturers save the US government, international donors, and national health programs more than $4.5 billion a year.
翻譯成中文。
Still, treatment options could be expanded further.
儘管如此,治療選擇可以進一步擴大。
翻譯成英文。
In September, Mylan announced a collaboration with UNAIDS, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Clinton Health Access Initiative, and other partners to provide the next-generation single-pill HIV regimen to patients in more than 90 low- and middle-income countries for less than $75 per year.
9月,邁蘭宣佈與聯合國艾滋病規劃署、比爾和梅琳達·蓋茨基金會、克林頓健康倡議計劃(Clinton Health Access Initiative)和其他合作者攜手為90多箇中低收入國家以每年不到75美元的價格提供新一代單一藥物艾滋病療法。
翻譯成英文。
These drugs are widely used in high-income countries because they produce fewer side effects.
這些藥品因其副作用更小而在高收入國家廣泛使用。
翻譯成英文。
Affordability initiatives like this one should be replicated.
此類平價計劃應該被廣泛複製。
翻譯成英文。
其次,製藥商必須繼續投資於產能和供給鏈可靠性建設。
Next, drug makers must continue investing in capacity and supply-chain reliability.
翻譯成中文。
自2005年以來,全世界接受抗逆轉錄治療的人數增加了十倍,達到了2,100萬人。
Since 2005, the number of people on antiretroviral therapies worldwide has grown by a factor of ten, to 21 million.
翻譯成中文。