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Ultimately, however, I suspect that competition and innovation will survive the forthcoming regulations. | 但我覺得競爭和創新還是可以在即將到來的法規監管中找到生存空間。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
最後，也是最重要的是，讓我們希望，各地的恐怖主義都能被挫敗，衝突消退，民主與資本主義能恢復一些前進的勢頭，更大範圍的文明與誠實的對話能迴歸公共領域。 | Finally, and most important, let us hope that terrorism is thwarted everywhere, conflicts subside, democracy and capitalism regain some momentum, and greater civility and honest dialogue return to the public domain. | 翻譯成中文。 |
如果這一切能在2018年發生，那這將是非常好的一年。 | Should that happen in 2018, it will be a very good year indeed. | 翻譯成中文。 |
消滅霍亂路線圖 | A Roadmap to End Cholera | 翻譯成中文。 |
日內瓦—“請問洗手間在哪？ | GENEVA – “Where is your toilet?” | 翻譯成中文。 |
This is often the first question I ask when I visit the site of a cholera outbreak anywhere in the world. | ”每當我訪問霍亂爆發地區，這常常是我問的第一個問題。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
More often than not, the answer is: “We don’t have one. | 更多時候，我獲得的回答是“我們沒有洗手間。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
哪裡方便就在哪裡解決。 ” | We go wherever we can.” | 翻譯成中文。 |
霍亂這個古老的病種，如今已經成為貧窮病。 | Cholera, an ancient disease, has become a disease of poverty. | 翻譯成中文。 |
它本身不具有地理區別，但主要在衛生設施落後的脆弱社群傳播。 | It does not discriminate geographically, but it preys mostly on vulnerable communities in areas with poor sanitation. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Carried by contaminated floodwaters to sources of drinking water, transported by unsuspecting travelers, or brought into homes on produce irrigated with untreated sewage, the Vibrio cholerae bacterium settles in the small intestine after it is ingested, causing severe diarrhea and dehydration. | 攜帶霍亂弧菌的洪水進入到飲用水水源，然後被毫無戒心的旅行者傳播，或進入用未處理過的汙水進行灌溉的家庭，被攝入人體後棲息於小腸，引發嚴重腹瀉和脫水。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Those who are fortunate enough never to have witnessed cholera’s effects firsthand might assume that it is just another stomach bug. | 那些從未親眼目睹霍亂影響的幸運兒，可能會認為這無非是有一種腸胃病。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但如果不迅速進行治療，霍亂可能會在幾個小時內奪走成年人或兒童的生命。 | But without swift medical attention, cholera can sap the life out of an adult or child in a matter of hours. | 翻譯成中文。 |
每年，霍亂都會導致大約95,000人死亡； 其中許多是兒童。 | Each year, cholera claims the lives of an estimated 95,000 people; many who die are children. | 翻譯成中文。 |
今年，無精打采、雙目無神的待治療霍亂患者的形象出現在世界各國。 | This year, images of listless, glassy-eyed cholera victims awaiting treatment have emerged in countries worldwide. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The disease has spread at an unprecedented rate in Yemen, where more than 2,000 people have died since April. | 這種疾病以前所未有的速度在葉門傳播，4月份以來已造成2,000多人死亡。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Cholera outbreaks are ongoing in Somalia, South Sudan, Haiti, and other countries across sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. | 索馬利亞、南蘇丹、海地和其他許多撒哈拉以南非洲和亞洲國家也發生了霍亂疫情爆發。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但關於最近的致命霍亂疫情的最令人悲哀的事實是每個人的死亡其實都是可以避免的。 | But the saddest fact about cholera’s recent toll on human lives is that every single death was preventable. | 翻譯成中文。 |
世界早已掌握了有效控制霍亂的知識和工具，但現有資源與必要的全球承諾不相匹配。 | The world already has the knowledge and tools to control cholera effectively, but existing resources are not being aligned with the necessary global commitments. | 翻譯成中文。 |
因此，多元化的技術合作網路——全球霍亂控制任務小組（Global Task Force on Cholera Control）至關重要。 | That is why the new global strategy developed by the Global Task Force on Cholera Control, a diverse network of technical partners, is so vital. | 翻譯成中文。 |
《消滅霍亂——2030年全球路線圖》（Ending Cholera – A Global Roadmap to 2030）強調要轉向積極預防方針，制定了在未來十年讓霍亂致死人數減少90%的目標。 | Ending Cholera – A Global Roadmap to 2030 emphasizes a shift to proactive approaches, and aims to reduce cholera deaths by 90% over the next decade. | 翻譯成中文。 |
如果能得到全面實施，該計劃將幫助多達20個國家在相同的時間框架內根除霍亂傳播。 | With full implementation, the plan could also help as many as 20 countries eliminate disease transmission in the same timeframe. | 翻譯成中文。 |
該路線圖基於三個支柱——早期監測、集中預防以及國家和合作夥伴間的合作——為消滅作為公共衛生威脅的霍亂提供了非常具體的路徑。 | Based on three pillars – early detection, integrated prevention tactics, and coordination between countries and partners – the roadmap provides a concrete path for ending cholera as a public health threat. | 翻譯成中文。 |
一旦霍亂在一個社群內爆發，就會日益難以控制。 | Once cholera grips a community, it becomes increasingly difficult to control. | 翻譯成中文。 |
It is important, therefore, that the disease is not forgotten even when it is not claiming victims. | 因此，很重要的一點是，即使沒有報告病例，也不能將它遺忘。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
包括了水、下水道設施和衛生（所謂的WASH服務）投資在內的多部門方針能夠將霍亂控制在未萌發狀態。 | A multi-sector approach that includes investments in water, sanitation, and hygiene – so-called WASH services – can keep cholera at bay. | 翻譯成中文。 |
So can the proactive use of oral cholera vaccines and quick access to treatments, such as oral rehydration solution and intravenous fluids. | 用口服霍亂疫苗進行預防和快速治療手段（如口服補水劑和靜脈注射）也能起到同樣的作用。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Improving WASH infrastructure is the most effective path to prevention, though implementing these services will take time in countries with fewer resources. | 改善WASH基礎設施是最有效的預防方法，儘管在資源匱乏國家落實這些服務需要時間。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
因此，路線圖還鼓勵在霍亂高發地區預防性地大量配置口服疫苗。 | For this reason, the roadmap also encourages the preemptive and large-scale deployment of oral vaccines in cholera hotspots. | 翻譯成中文。 |
疫苗能夠立刻起作用，在三年內防止霍亂爆發，為實施長期解決方案爭取時間。 | The vaccines work immediately, and can prevent cholera for up to three years, serving as a bridge to the implementation of longer-term solutions. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Oral cholera vaccines are available via a global stockpile maintained by the World Health Organization, with support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. | 口服霍亂疫苗可以通過世界衛生組織在Gavi即疫苗聯盟的支援下維持的全球儲備獲得。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
More than 15 million doses have been distributed to 18 countries since the program’s creation in 2013. | 自2013年該計劃成立以來，已有超過1,500劑疫苗分配給18個國家。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
明年，疫苗儲備將增加到2,500萬劑以上，而成立之初只有兩百萬劑。 | Next year, the stockpile is set to increase to more than 25 million doses, up from two million when it began. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Ending cholera as a health threat by 2030, as global partners and the WHO recently pledged, will require sustained collaboration and commitment from cholera-affected countries, technical partners, and international donors. | 要在2030年前消滅作為衛生威脅的霍亂——這是全球合作伙伴和世衛組織最新做出的承諾——需要來自受霍亂影響的國家、技術合作夥伴和國際捐贈者的持續合作和致力。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
考慮到如今全世界每年仍有數百萬人有可能沾染霍亂，這一目標似乎非常艱鉅。 | The goal may seem daunting, given that millions of people around the world are at risk of contracting the disease each year. | 翻譯成中文。 |
But with urbanization, climate change, and other factors likely to increase the threat of infection, it is a goal that must be met. | 但在城市化、氣候變化和其他因素有可能讓傳染風險進一步加劇的情況下，我們必須實現這一目標。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
路線圖讓它成為可能。 | The roadmap makes this possible. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Implementing the plan will prove to be a cost-effective solution for countries saddled with responding to frequent cholera outbreaks. | 實施路線圖計劃將是飽受霍亂反覆爆發的國家價效比最高的解決方案。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
這也是急需行動起來的原因之一。 | That is one reason why action is urgently needed. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但對國際社會來說，採納這一戰略也是一件正確的事。 | But embracing the strategy is also the right thing to do for the international community. | 翻譯成中文。 |
政府有確保所有人都不會遭遇可預防死亡的道德義務。 | Governments have a moral obligation to ensure that no one succumbs to a preventable death. | 翻譯成中文。 |
It is an obligation the WHO shares, and it is why we will work hard to help the world meet the ambitious targets we have set. | 這也是世界衛生組織的義務，因此，我們將努力幫助世界實現我們所制定的雄心勃勃的目標。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
我們擁有戰勝霍亂所需要的工具。 | We have the tools needed to beat cholera. | 翻譯成中文。 |
現在，我們又有了計劃，沒有任何藉口不把計劃和工具落到實處。 | Now, with a plan in place, there can no longer be any excuse not to put them to use. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Whither the Multilateral Trading System? | 多邊貿易體系將走向何方？ | 翻譯成英文。 |
BRUSSELS – Free trade seems to have few supporters these days. | 發自布魯塞爾——自由貿易的支持者最近好像沒剩幾個了。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Though actual trade volumes are recovering from the post-crisis recession and drop in commodity prices, “globalization” has become increasingly contentious, as exemplified by the election of US President Donald Trump on the back of a promise to rip up international agreements and get tough on trade partners. | 儘管實際貿易量正在從危機後的衰退中復甦，大宗商品的價格也逐步下降，但是圍繞“全球化”的爭議卻日益喧囂，對此美國總統特朗普的當選就是明證——此人的口號就是要撕毀國際協定並強硬對待貿易伙伴。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
那麼對於基於規則的貿易體系來說，這又預示著一個什麼樣的未來？ | What does this mean for the future of the rules-based trading system? | 翻譯成中文。 |
大約60年前，也就是當前這個以規則為基礎的全球貿易體系被構思出來的時候，美國是世界上唯一的經濟“超級大國”，在當時最先進的製造產業中佔據著無可置疑的主導地位。 | Some 60 years ago, when the current rules-based global trading system was conceived, the United States was the world’s sole economic “hyperpower,” possessing unquestioned dominance in the day’s most advanced manufacturing industries. | 翻譯成中文。 |
With enough power to impose rules, and enough dominance to be able to count on accruing the largest share of the benefits, it could – and did – perform the role of “benevolent hegemon.” | 既然有了足夠的權力來施加規則，又有足夠的統治力來確保獲得最大的利益份額，它可以 （也確實）扮演著“仁慈的霸主”這一角色。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
As Japan and Europe recovered from World War II – with the latter getting an added boost from economic integration – America’s lead began to dwindle, and by the 1970s and 1980s, the US was sharing power over the world’s trade agenda with Europe. | 隨著日本和歐洲從二戰中復甦——後者還得到了經濟一體化的進一步推動，美國的領先優勢開始縮小，到了1970年代和80年代，美國開始與歐洲分享制定世界貿易議程的權力。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Nonetheless, because the US and Europe share so many common interests, they generally adhered to a cooperative approach. | 儘管如此，由於美歐之間存在著諸多共同利益，它們一般還會堅持走合作路線。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
It was not until imports began to overwhelm a growing number of industries in the US, fueling the emergence of large and persistent external deficits, that the country’s trade policy became more defensive, creating friction with many of its partners. | 但直到進口開始壓垮越來越多的美國工業部門並刺激產生了鉅額且持續的對外貿易逆差之後，該國的貿易政策才開始變得更加富有防禦性，進而與許多合作伙伴產生摩擦。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
然而即使如此，美國領導人也清楚意識到自由主義多邊貿易體系的價值，並支援在1995年建立世界貿易組織來作為關稅和貿易總協定的接班人。 | Yet, even then, US leaders understood the value of the liberal multilateral trading system, and supported the establishment, in 1995, of the World Trade Organization as the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The WTO’s creation amounted to a major step forward, as it addressed not just tariffs, but also other trade barriers, including indirect barriers arising from domestic regulations. | 世界貿易組織的創設堪稱向前邁進的重要一步，因為它不僅應對關稅問題，還處理其他貿易壁壘，包括那些因國內法規產生的間接壁壘。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Given the complexity of assessing how domestic regulations might impede trade, especially compared to judging whether a tariff has been correctly applied, the WTO needed effective dispute-settlement mechanisms, with members agreeing to binding arbitration. | 鑑於評估國內法規貿易妨害程度的工作相對判斷關稅是否正確徵收來說顯得尤為複雜，世貿組織需要有效的爭端解決機制以及得到成員國同意的有約束力仲裁機制。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The system worked, because its major members recognized the legitimacy of independent panels, even if they sometimes deliver politically inconvenient judgments. | 這個制度最終奏效了，因為它的主要成員國都承認各個獨立（仲裁）小組的合法性，即便後者有時會做出一些在政治上挺棘手的判決。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
然而這種認識如今卻越來越遭到懷疑。 | Yet this recognition is now increasingly in doubt. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Consider what type of economy would support a rules-based system. | 試問究竟有哪種什麼型別的經濟體會支援一套基於規則的體系呢？ | 翻譯成英文。 |
After WWII, the US supported such a system, because of its unassailable economic supremacy. | 二戰後的美國支援這麼一套體系，因為它擁有無與倫比的經濟優勢。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
An open rules-based system would also be highly appealing in a world comprising only small countries, none of which could hope to gain by relying on its relative economic power. | 一套以規則為基礎的公開體系在一個只存在小國的世界中也是非常有吸引力的，因為這些國家都不可能依靠其相對的經濟實力來獲得好處。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Things become more complicated when the global economy includes a small number of economies of similar size, larger than the small economies from the previous example, but not large enough to dominate the system alone. | 當全球經濟涵蓋了少數幾個規模相近，比上文中的小經濟體要大卻又不足以單獨控制整個體系的經濟體時，事情就變得更復雜了。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
That is the scenario the Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman considered in a 1989 paper on bilateralism, in which he reported that a world consisting of three major trading blocs constitutes the worst constellation for trade, as a lack of explicit cooperation among all three would lead to increasing trade barriers. | 諾貝爾經濟學獎得主保羅·克魯格曼（Paul Krugman）在1989年發表的一篇關於雙邊主義的論文中指出一個由三大主要貿易集團組成的世界將會是最差勁的貿易組合，由於三者之間缺乏明確的合作關係，貿易壁壘將因此增加。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Unfortunately, this is exactly the situation in which the global economy finds itself today. | 不幸的是，這正是全球經濟的現狀。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
There are three dominant economies or trading blocs – China, the European Union, and the US – with very similar trade volumes (exports plus imports) of around $4 trillion each. (Japan, which was a strong contender 25 years ago, now has a much smaller trade volume.) | 三大主要經濟體/貿易集團——中國，歐盟和美國 ——的貿易量（出口量加進口量）都在4萬億美元左右（25年前的日本也是一個強有力的競爭者，但該國當前的貿易量就小太多了）。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Together, the G3 economies account for 40% of world trade and 45% of global GDP. | 三方經濟體合共佔據了世界貿易的40％以及全球GDP的45％。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
With economic power distributed in this way, explicit cooperation by all three actors is crucial. | 在經濟權力如此分配的狀態下，所有三個行動者的明確合作就變得至關重要了。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Yet there are compelling reasons why they would be reticent to pursue such cooperation. | 但也有著令人信服的理由來解釋為何各方都不願意推進這類合作，。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Even if Trump weren’t president, the current global trading system would present problems for the US, whose trade policy has long focused on manufactured goods. (Trade in raw materials has always been relatively free, and trade in agricultural goods has usually been considered special, and thus not subject to rules like the “most favored nation” principle, which applies to manufactures.) | 即使特朗普不當選總統，目前的全球貿易體系也會給美國帶來麻煩，因為美國的貿易政策長期以來都集中在製成品上（原料貿易一直都相對自由，農產品貿易通常被認為是特殊的，因此不受制於類似製造業“最惠國待遇”條款的那類規定）。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
由於美國現在能源上實現了自給，因此無須像那些缺乏國內能源供應的工業國家那樣出口那麼多的製成品。 | Because the US is now self-sufficient in energy, it needs to export fewer manufactured goods than industrialized countries with no domestic energy resources. | 翻譯成中文。 |
當前美國的年均製成品出口額僅為1萬億美元左右，遠低於歐盟和中國，後兩者雖然經濟規模略小，但各自的製成品出口額幾乎是美國的兩倍。 | Annual US exports of manufactured goods thus now amount to only about $1 trillion annually – significantly less than both the EU and China, which export almost twice as much in manufactured goods, despite having somewhat smaller economies. | 翻譯成中文。 |
可以肯定的是，特朗普不太可能發起一場驚天動地的貿易戰，因為美國施加的任何關稅都會損害本國那些大型企業的利益——它們在國外生產設施投資上可是花了大錢的。 | To be sure, Trump is unlikely to start an outright trade war, because any US tariff would harm the interests of the country’s largest companies, which have invested huge sums in production facilities abroad. | 翻譯成中文。 |
同時也沒有哪個企業願意捨棄一大筆政治資本來維護基於規則的體系，因為它將不得不蒙受損失，而分享收益的卻是競爭對手。 | Yet no individual firm will be willing to give up much of its political capital to defend the rules-based system, either, because it would have to bear the losses, while its competitors shared the gains. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The same goes for the G3 trading blocs: if the EU expends political capital to stop the US from undermining WTO mechanisms, China (and the rest of world) will reap most of the gains. | 三大貿易集團也是如此：如果歐盟花費政治資本阻止美國破壞WTO機制，最大的得益者就將是中國（以及世界其他地區）。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
That dynamic goes some way toward explaining why China’s leaders, despite having proclaimed their support for the multilateral rules-based trading system, haven’t taken concrete action to reinforce it. | 這種動態有助於解釋為何中國領導人雖然宣稱支援以多邊規則為基礎的貿易體系，卻一直未能採取具體行動來對其加以強化。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Their reticence is probably intensified by the assumption that, within the current generation, their country will dominate the global economy; at that point, they might no longer want to be bound by somebody else’s rules. | 而令他們更傾向於保持緘默的可能是這麼一個假設：在這一代人的時間內他們的國家將主宰全球經濟； 因此在這一點上，他們可能不再想受制於別人的規則。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
It does not help matters that the Communist Party of China has recently been empowered even further in all areas of the economy, with all major firms now having to accept a CPC representative on their board. | 更無奈的是中國共產黨最近在國內各經濟領域的權力都得到了進一步加強，以至於所有大企業如今都不得不接受在董事會裡安插一個黨代表席位。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
It is difficult to see how a dominant economic power governed by a single party – especially one with such extensive control over the economy – would accept the primacy of international rules and procedures over domestic considerations. | 很難想象一個由一黨派執政的經濟強國——尤其一個對經濟有著如此廣泛控制的政黨——如何會讓國際規則和程式凌駕於國內考慮因素之上。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
結論其實很明確：世界是時候準備好迎來一個逐漸崩塌的WTO貿易體系了。 | The conclusion is clear. The world should prepare itself for the erosion of the rules-based trading system enshrined in the WTO. | 翻譯成中文。 |
準備好下一次衰退了嗎？ | Ready or Not for the Next Recession? | 翻譯成中文。 |
哥本哈根—豔陽天是檢查天花板是否漏水最好的時候。 | COPENHAGEN – A sunny day is the best time to check whether the roof is watertight. | 翻譯成中文。 |
對經濟決策者來說，諺語中的豔陽天已經到來：專家們紛紛預測給力的增長，因此，這是檢查我們是否為下一次衰退做好準備的最好時候。 | For economic policymakers, the proverbial sunny day has arrived: with experts forecasting strong growth, now is the best time to check whether we are prepared for the next recession. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The answer, for the United States in particular, is a resounding no. | 答案——特別是對美國而言——是響亮的“否”。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Policymakers normally respond to recessions by cutting interest rates, reducing taxes, and boosting transfers to the unemployed and other casualties of the downturn. | 決策者應對衰退的通常手段是降低利率、減少稅收以及提高面向失業者和其他衰退受害者的轉移支付。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但由於各種經濟和政治原因，美國完全沒有做好常規應對準備。 | But the US is singularly ill-prepared, for a combination of economic and political reasons, to respond normally. | 翻譯成中文。 |
最顯而易見的是，美聯儲聯邦基金利率目標仍然只有1. 25%—1. | Most obviously, the US Federal Reserve’s target for the federal funds rate is still only 1.25%-1.5%. | 翻譯成中文。 |
If no recession is imminent, the Fed may succeed in raising rates three times by the end of the year, to around 2%. | 5%。 如果近期不發生衰退，美聯儲可能到今年年底成功升息三次至2%左右。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但如果發生衰退性趨勢，貨幣寬鬆到政策利率為零的程度仍然是杯水車薪。 | But that would still leave little room for monetary easing in response to recessionary trends before the policy rate hits zero again. | 翻譯成中文。 |
In the last three recessions, the Fed’s cumulative interest-rate cuts have been close to five full percentage points. | 在過去三次衰退中，美聯儲累計降息幅度都接近整整五個百分點。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
This time, because slow recovery has permitted only gradual normalization of interest rates, and because there appears to have been a tendency for interest rates to trend downward more generally, the Fed lacks room to react. | 這一次，由於慢復甦導致利率只能逐漸正常化，並且出現了一般性的利率下降趨勢，美聯儲行動空間十分有限。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
理論上，美聯儲可以發動新一輪量化寬鬆。 | In principle, the Fed could launch another round of quantitative easing. | 翻譯成中文。 |
In addition, at least one of US President Donald Trump’s nominees to the Federal Reserve Board has mooted the idea of negative interest rates. | 此外，在美國總統特朗普所提名的美聯儲理事人選中，至少有一人提出過負利率的概念。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
That said, this Fed board, with its three Trump appointees, is likely to be less activist and innovative than its predecessor. | 儘管如此，包括三位特朗普任命人選在內的美聯儲理事會不太可能會比上一屆更加積極和創新。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
And criticism by the US Congress of any further expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet would be certain and intense. | 美國國會也肯定會激烈地批評美聯儲的任何進一步擴大資產負債表的舉動。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Fiscal policy is the obvious alternative, but Congress has cut taxes at the worst possible time, leaving no room for stimulus when it is needed. | 財政政策是顯而易見的替代方案，但國會在最糟糕的時候選擇了減稅，這使得真正需要的時候不再有刺激空間。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Adding $1.5 trillion more to the federal debt will create an understandable reluctance to respond to a downturn with further tax cuts. | 讓聯邦債務增加1. 5萬億美元將產生對衰退時期進一步減稅的抵制反應，這一點不難理解。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
As my Berkeley colleagues Christina and David Romer have shown, fiscal policy is less effective in countering recessions, and less likely to be used, when a country has already incurred a high public debt. | 我的伯克利同事卡里斯蒂娜·羅默和大衛·羅默（Christina and David Romer）指出，如果一國已經積累了很高的公共債務，那麼財政政策在抵禦衰退方面效果較低，採用的可能性也較小。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Instead of stimulating the economy in the next downturn, the Republicans in Congress are likely to respond perversely. | 國會中的共和黨不太可能在下一次衰退中採取刺激經濟的手段，而是會表現得更加頑固。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
隨著收入的下降和赤字更快的增加，他們將把減支進行到底，讓債務軌跡重回此前的軌道。 | As revenues fall and the deficit widens even faster, they will insist on spending cuts to return the debt trajectory to its previous path. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Congressional Republicans will most likely start with the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which provides food to low-income households. | 國會共和黨最有可能拿補充營養援助計劃（Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program，SNAP）開刀。 | 翻譯成英文。 |