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SNAP is already in their sights.
SNAP是一項低收入家庭提供食物的計劃,目前已經被國會共和黨盯上。
翻譯成英文。
They will then proceed to cut Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.
接著,他們會把砍刀揮向醫療保險(Medicare)、醫療補助(Medicaid)和社會保險。
翻譯成英文。
The burden of these spending cuts will fall on hand-to-mouth consumers, who will reduce their own spending dollar for dollar, denting aggregate demand.
這些減支措施的負擔將落在無隔宿之糧的消費者頭上,他們將一點一點地減少支出,從而拖累總需求。
翻譯成英文。
For their part, state governments, forced by new limits on the deductibility of state and local taxes to pare their budgets, are likely to move further in the direction of limiting the duration of unemployment benefits and the extent of their own food and nutrition assistance.
至於州政府,迫於州和地方稅抵扣的新限制吞噬了它們的預算,有可能進一步降低失業救濟的領取時間,限制自身食品和營養補助的範圍。
翻譯成英文。
全球環境也不利於美國。
Nor will global conditions favor the US.
翻譯成中文。
從歐洲到日本,外國央行也沒有多少降息空間,即使德國政府最終組建成功,德國決策者也將繼續其不喜歡動用財政政策的特點。
Foreign central banks, from Europe to Japan, have similarly scant room to cut interest rates. Even after a government in Germany is finally formed, policymakers there will continue to display their characteristic reluctance to use fiscal policy.
翻譯成中文。
而如果德國不利用其財政空間,其歐元區夥伴國也將沒有財政空間可用。
And if Germany doesn’t use its fiscal space, there will be little room for its eurozone partners to do so.
翻譯成中文。
More than that, scope for the kind of international cooperation that helped to halt the 2008-2009 contraction has been destroyed by Trump’s “America First” agenda, which paints one-time allies as enemies.
不僅如此,幫助遏制了2008—2009年經濟萎縮的國際合作已經被特朗普的“美國優先”日程毀於一旦。 “美國優先”方針將曾經的盟友列為敵人。
翻譯成英文。
要想讓其他國家和美國政府共同抵抗下一次衰退,唯有讓它們相信它的判斷和意圖。
Other countries will work with the US government to counter the next recession only if they trust its judgment and intentions.
翻譯成中文。
而對美國的信任度供給量嚴重短缺。
And trust in the US may be the quantity in shortest supply.
翻譯成中文。
2008—2009年期間,美聯儲擴大了與外國央行的美元互換規模,但被國會抨擊為“拱手送出”美國人民的辛苦錢。
In 2008-2009, the Fed extended dollar swap lines to foreign central banks, but came under congressional fire for “giving away” Americans’ hard-earned money.
翻譯成中文。
接著,在2009年年初的倫敦G20峰會上,總統奧巴馬政府承諾與其他政府進行財政政策協作。
Then, at the London G20 summit in early 2009, President Barack Obama’s administration made a commitment to coordinate its fiscal stimulus with that of other governments.
翻譯成中文。
在金十年後的今天,很難想象特朗普政府會在類似的會議上哪怕是露一臉。
Today, almost a decade later, it is hard to imagine the Trump administration even showing up at an analogous meeting.
翻譯成中文。
經濟擴張的長度並非下一次衰退何時到來的可靠預測指標。
The length of an economic expansion is not a reliable predictor of when the next downturn will come.
翻譯成中文。
而衰退的深度和性質將取決於觸發衰退的事件,同樣具有不確定性。
And the depth and shape of that recession will depend on the event triggering it, which is similarly uncertain.
翻譯成中文。
儘管如此,有一件事是篤定的,即,擴張不會永遠持續下去。
The one thing we know for sure, though, is that expansions don’t last forever.
翻譯成中文。
風暴肯定會到來,而當它真的來臨時,我們將完全沒有做好應對洪水的準備。
A storm will surely come, and when it does, we will be poorly prepared for the deluge.
翻譯成中文。
世貿組織的一個良機
An Opportunity for the WTO
翻譯成中文。
發自安大略——十二月,世界各地的貿易部長將齊聚布宜諾斯艾利斯參加世界貿易組織(WTO)第十一次部長級會議。
ONTARIO – This December, trade ministers from around the world will converge in Buenos Aires for the World Trade Organization’s 11th Ministerial Conference.
翻譯成中文。
With the United States, which has historically led the world toward trade liberalization, now actively stoking trade tensions, the meeting is set to be unlike any other.
但本屆會議註定與往屆有所不同,因為美國這個一直以來引領全球邁向貿易自由化的國家如今卻在積極挑動貿易緊張局勢了。
翻譯成英文。
The WTO’s ministerial gatherings are never easy.
世貿組織部長級會議永遠都不那麼順利。
翻譯成英文。
Some kind of agreement is usually delivered, but only at the last minute, and its language is often vague.
會上通常能達成某些協議,但往往要等到最後一刻才形成共識,協議用詞也大多模稜兩可。
翻譯成英文。
然而本屆結果可能更令人失望,代表們甚至無法達成一個令他們可以在大型選舉造勢活動中為自己臉上貼金的象徵性協議。
This time, however, the outcome might be even more disappointing, with delegates unable to reach even a symbolic agreement that they can tout with an aggressive marketing campaign.
翻譯成中文。
目前自由貿易中的緊張局勢源自於各方收益的分配不均,而這無法在WTO框架內解決,更不可能在部長級會議上找到答案。
The current tensions over free trade, rooted in the uneven distribution of its benefits, cannot be resolved within the WTO, let alone by a ministerial gathering.
翻譯成中文。
但這並不意味著即將到來的會議註定毫無意義。
But that doesn’t mean that the upcoming conference must be for naught.
翻譯成中文。
相反,如果世貿組織想要保持自身作為國際貿易合作和共識構建有效平臺的地位,就必須藉助這個關鍵機會實施所需的更新和重整。
On the contrary, it should serve as a critical opportunity to initiate the update and recalibration that the WTO needs to remain an effective platform for international trade cooperation and consensus-building.
翻譯成中文。
其中必須解決的一個關鍵問題與“特殊和差別性待遇”有關。
One key problem that must be addressed relates to “special and differential treatment” (S&D).
翻譯成中文。
About two thirds of the WTO’s 164 members have declared themselves developing countries – a label that entitles them to S&D provisions, including the authority to maintain trade tariffs for a longer period of time.
世貿組織164個成員中有2/3宣稱自己是發展中國家,這個標籤使他們有權獲得一些優待,包括在更長時期內收取貿易關稅的權力。
翻譯成英文。
由於世貿組織並沒有任何基準或指標來確定一個國家何時應該脫離特殊和差別性待遇,因此沒有任何發展中國家會變成“發達”。
With the WTO lacking any benchmarks or indicators to determine when a country should be weaned off S&D, it is no surprise that no developing country has ever “developed.”
翻譯成中文。
但自從1979年首次引進該條款以來,許多發展中國家早已發展壯大,可即便其國內某些行業已經具備國際競爭力,它們也沒打算放棄這類優待所帶來的利益。
To be sure, since S&D was first introduced in 1979, many developing countries have grown richer. But they have shown no indication that they are ready to relinquish the benefits of S&D, even for industries that have become internationally competitive.
翻譯成中文。
很難說所有發展中國家都應享有無限期特權來避免承擔世貿組織對其經濟中所有部門所下達的一般義務。
It is hard to argue that all developing countries should enjoy the indefinite privilege of opting out of the WTO’s general obligations for all sectors of their economies.
翻譯成中文。
And with so many of their WTO partners claiming preferential status, developed-country members often resist trade concessions within the organization, preferring to conduct negotiations in other forums.
而由於太多世貿組織合作伙伴都聲稱享有優惠地位,發達國家成員國往往會抵制組織框架內的貿易讓步,而更願意在其他平臺上展開談判。
翻譯成英文。
The dynamic in the WTO stands in stark contrast to that within the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
而世貿組織內部的動態則與國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行形成了鮮明對比。
翻譯成英文。
在世貿組織中,發達國家希望看到各大新興市場國家承擔更多的義務,而發展中國家則抵制;
At the WTO, developed countries would like to see big emerging markets take on more obligations, while developing countries resist.
翻譯成中文。
At the Bretton Woods institutions, developed countries are blocking emerging economies from gaining greater influence.
在佈雷頓森林體系機構內,發達國家卻在遏制新興經濟體獲得更大的影響力。
翻譯成英文。
But the two dynamics have something in common: intransigence, even if coming from different quarters, reflects a denial of reality.
但這兩股動態存在一些共同點:即使來自不同陣營,卻都反映了對現實的否定。
翻譯成英文。
In the Bretton Woods institutions, the emerging economies are right that their increased economic weight should correlate with larger capital contributions and more weight in decision-making.
在佈雷頓森林體系機構中,新興經濟體不斷增大的經濟體量應當與更大的出資比重和決策權重相關聯。
翻譯成英文。
世貿組織的優待條款顯然也需要更新,確保只有那些真正有需要的國家才能受益。
In the WTO, S&D clearly needs to be updated to ensure that it benefits only countries that actually need it.
翻譯成中文。
因此布宜諾斯艾利斯會議的部長們應該準備針對優待條款展開誠佈公的討論。
Ministers at the conference in Buenos Aires should thus be prepared to have an honest discussion about S&D.
翻譯成中文。
A second topic that the WTO needs to address relates to consensus-building.
世貿組織需要處理的第二個議題涉及到共識的建立。
翻譯成英文。
根據當前的世貿組織規則,大多數決策都可以通過多數贊成票來達成。
Under current WTO rules, most decisions can be adopted by a majority vote.
翻譯成中文。
但長期以來的做法是以協商一致的方式來通過所有決策。
But the long-standing practice has been to adopt all decisions by consensus.
翻譯成中文。
這是明智且無須改變的。
This is wise and should not change.
翻譯成中文。
雖然建立共識可能冗長而繁瑣,但這是世貿組織決策獲取所需合法性的唯一途徑。
Though consensus-building can be slow and cumbersome, it is the only way to generate the legitimacy that WTO decisions need.
翻譯成中文。
畢竟簡單的多數投票將無法體現市場規模的差異。
A simple majority vote, after all, would fail to account for differences in market size.
翻譯成中文。
And weighted voting would undermine the WTO’s capacity to settle disputes by adjudicating rights and obligations among members of different size and political heft.
而加權投票則會破壞世貿組織通過對不同規模和政治影響力的成員之間的權利和義務進行裁定來解決爭端的能力。
翻譯成英文。
但問題在於共識被曲解成了無限制的否決權,這樣一個成員就可以阻止別人去討論一切事關他人利益的問題。
The problem is that consensus is interpreted as an unlimited veto power, such that a member can block any discussion on matters of interest to others.
翻譯成中文。
A consensus-based approach can work only if it entails an obligation by all members to work toward shared interests, with members objecting formally only to decisions running counter to some fundamental interest.
如果某項共識能賦予所有成員國責任去追求共同利益,那麼尋求公識的手段才能起作用,因為成員國只會對與某些根本利益相違背的決定提出正式反對。
翻譯成英文。
巴黎氣候協議就是藉助南非祖魯和科薩人稱為“因達巴會議(Indaba)”的簡單方法達成的——談判者有權拒絕共識,但只能是在提出旨在尋求共同點的替代建議之後。
The Paris climate agreement was made possible by a simple method called “Indaba,” adopted from the Zulu and Xhosa people of South Africa. Negotiators had the right to withhold consent, but only if they put forth alternate proposals aimed at finding common ground.
翻譯成中文。
If Indaba worked in Paris, it could also work at the WTO.
如果因達巴可以在巴黎奏效,那麼當然也可以用在世貿組織上。
翻譯成英文。
在布宜諾斯艾利斯,部長們應討論如何確保世貿組織成員負責地行使其否決權。
In Buenos Aires, ministers should discuss how to ensure that WTO members responsibly exercise their right to block decisions.
翻譯成中文。
部長們應該在布宜諾斯艾利斯討論的最後一個問題是如何確保世貿組織能有效適應不斷變化的國際環境。
The final issue that ministers should be prepared to discuss in Buenos Aires is the need to ensure that the WTO adapts effectively to a changing international environment.
翻譯成中文。
The problems with both S&D and consensus decision-making at the WTO are not new, but they have long been ignored, allowing them to deepen.
世貿組織的特殊和差別性待遇以及共識決策問題長期存在,卻又一直被忽視以致不斷惡化。
翻譯成英文。
如果漸進式改革能根植於世貿組織的日常活動中,這種情況就不會發生了。
This would not have happened if incremental reform was ingrained in the WTO’s regular activities.
翻譯成中文。
Both the IMF and the World Bank have policy watchdogs that regularly scrutinize and evaluate their functioning.
國際貨幣基金組織和世行都有設有政策監督機構來定期審查和評估自身的運作。
翻譯成英文。
Running on very small budgets, these ruthless truth-tellers regularly force their institutions’ leaders to have honest discussions about organizational effectiveness and possible reforms.
這些真相的無情揭露者不需多少執行經費,卻能經常迫使本機構的領導層就組織效率和可能實施的改革開展誠懇的討論。
翻譯成英文。
而這樣一個獨立評估辦公室正是世貿組織所需要的。
Such an independent office for evaluation is precisely what the WTO needs.
翻譯成中文。
世貿組織不可能永遠掩蓋自己的問題。
The WTO cannot sweep its problems under the carpet forever.
翻譯成中文。
The question is whether it will undertake the reforms it needs now or wait until a costly crisis leaves it no choice.
問題在於它能否立刻進行所需的改革,還是等待一場巨大的危機將其逼到牆角。
翻譯成英文。
中國的各類矛盾
China’s Contradictions
翻譯成中文。
發自紐黑文——五年一度的中共全國代表大會是一場罕見地將儀式、教條和內省、戰略相結合的事件,而10月18日召開的十九大也不例外。
NEW HAVEN – China’s quinquennial Communist Party congresses are that rare event where ritual and dogma combine with introspection and strategy. The 19th National Congress, which began on October 18, is no exception.
翻譯成中文。
Notwithstanding the suspense over potential changes in Party leadership, which typically occur at the end of the meeting, President Xi Jinping’s political report, delivered on the opening day, was a high-impact event.
儘管懸念總是被放在會議末段的中共高層領導班子調整上,但習近平總書記在開幕當天的政治報告也是一個具備高度影響力的事件。
翻譯成英文。
Significantly, it says as much about the Party as it does about Xi.
值得注意的是,報告用了跟談論習近平一樣的篇幅來談論黨。
翻譯成英文。
As Alice Miller, a leading Sinologist at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, emphasizes, the report was carefully crafted over a one-year period to convey the consensus of the Party’s highest organ, the 205-member Central Committee.
正如斯坦福大學胡佛研究所的知名中國研究家愛麗絲·米勒(Alice Miller)所強調的那樣,這份精心攥寫了一年的報告就是用來傳達由205人組成的中共中央委員會(也是中共最高領導機關)的共識。
翻譯成英文。
習近平的三個結論尤為重要。
Three conclusions from Xi’s address are particularly important.
翻譯成中文。
For starters, the ideological underpinnings of “Xi Jinping Thought” have been raised to the same lofty level as those of “Mao Zedong Thought,” effectively elevating Xi over his three predecessors – Hu Jintao, Jiang Zemin, and even the revered Deng Xiaoping.
首先,“習近平思想”已經被提升到與“毛澤東思想”相同的崇高水平,實際上超越了他的三位前任:胡錦濤,江澤民,甚至是威望極高的鄧小平。
翻譯成英文。
我們已經看過有很多關於習近平自從2012年11月被任命為黨總書記以來如何鞏固權力的文章報道,但這一提升使其被正式確定下來。
Much has been written about Xi’s consolidation of power since he was appointed General Secretary in November 2012. But this elevation makes it official.
翻譯成中文。
僅僅在位五年時間,黨的領導層就已經將習近平拔高成了現代中國的兩大歷史人物之一。
After only five years in office, the Party leadership has anointed Xi as one of modern China’s two greatest historic figures.
翻譯成中文。
第二,這份政治報告以充滿信心的語氣談論了現在進入“新時代”的中國,但通過強調“行百里者半九十”這句格言,習近平描繪了一個更加雄心勃勃的未來。
Second, the political report speaks with great confidence about a China that has now entered a “New Era.” But by underscoring the Chinese adage that the “…last leg of a journey just marks the halfway point,” Xi sketched an even more ambitious future.
翻譯成中文。
中國的目光現在放在兩個目標上——到2035年完成建設所謂小康社會的任務(報告原文為“在全面建成小康社會的基礎上,再奮鬥十五年,基本實現社會主義現代化”),然後在2050年前建成一個強國。
China’s sights are now set on two goals – completing the task of building the so-called moderately prosperous society by 2035, and then establishing its position as a Great Power by 2050.
翻譯成中文。
Unlike China’s goal-setting exercises in the past, there are no quantitative targets attached to these “twin centenary goals” (which roughly align with the Party’s founding in 1921 and the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949). They celebrate the long-awaited national rejuvenation that Xi has dubbed the China Dream.
跟中國過去的目標制定做法不同,這兩個“百年奮鬥目標”(與1921年中共建黨和1949年中華人民共和國成立時間大致配對)並沒有提出任何量化指標,只是頌揚了期待已久的民族復興(習近平稱之為“中國夢”)。
翻譯成英文。
第三點可能是最有趣的。
The third point is perhaps the most intriguing.
翻譯成中文。
這體現在關於中國“主要矛盾”形式的措辭上——這是一個用以提出亟待解決之根本問題的馬克思主義概念。
This is couched in the form of China’s “principal contradiction” – a Marxist concept that serves as an admission of a fundamental problem requiring resolution.
翻譯成中文。
這一主要矛盾的表述雖然通常是隱晦且模凌兩可的,但卻會構成對關於風險/機遇、戰略/手段和改革/治理的豐富討論,所有這些都將在可預見的未來塑造中國的前景。
The principal contradiction, while typically elliptical and ambiguous, frames a rich discussion of risks and opportunities, strategy and tactics, reforms and governance – all of which will shape China’s prospects for the foreseeable future.
翻譯成中文。
The big news is that, under Xi’s leadership, the Party has revised its principal contradiction for the first time since 1981. Whereas the contradiction had previously been framed as a tradeoff between the needs of the people and China’s “backward social production,” it is now viewed as a tension between “unbalanced and inadequate development” and the “people’s ever-growing needs for a better life.”
最重要的是,在習近平的領導下中共自1981年以來首次修改了對主要矛盾的描述,該矛盾從前被認為是人民日益增長的物質文化需求和“落後生產力”之間的折衷,如今被修改為“不平衡不充分的發展”和“人民日益增長的美好生活需要”之間的緊張關係。
翻譯成英文。
這個主要矛盾的重述並不是空穴來風。
This restatement of the principal contradiction has not emerged from thin air.
翻譯成中文。
其清楚地展現了關於中國國家視野的一個重大變化 ——從貧窮的發展中國家再到一個旨在成為強國的逐漸富裕社會。
It clearly signals a far-reaching change in national perspective – from that of a poor developing country to that of an increasingly prosperous society focused on becoming a Great Power.
翻譯成中文。
It is also consistent with the critique of former Premier Wen Jiabao, who in March 2007 famously warned of a Chinese economy that was becoming increasingly “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and [ultimately] unsustainable.”
這也跟前總理溫家寶的評論是一致的,他在2007年3月曾經警告說,中國經濟越來越“不穩定,不平衡,不協調,並(最終)不可持續”。
翻譯成英文。
Over the past ten years, two five-year plans – the 12th, enacted in 2011, and the 13th, enacted in 2016 – plus a major set of reforms adopted at the so-called Third Plenum in 2013, have aimed to resolve China’s persistent and worrisome imbalances.
在過去十年來出臺的兩個五年計劃(2011年頒佈的十二五和2016年頒佈的十三五),加上2013年召開的十八屆三中全會所通過的一系列改革,都旨在解決中國持續存在且令人憂慮的失衡問題。
翻譯成英文。
習近平的政治報告並未改變這一系列努力的主旨。
Xi’s political report doesn’t alter the main thrust of those efforts.
翻譯成中文。
The real significance is that rebalancing is now enshrined within the Party’s ideological underpinnings. It is a foundational pillar of Xi Jinping Thought.
真正重大的意義在於再平衡現在已經被納入了黨的思想基礎之內,也是習近平思想的基礎支柱。
翻譯成英文。
政治報告對中國主要矛盾的關注也引發了關與黨的長期戰略中仍然缺失哪些內容的重大問題。
The political report’s focus on China’s principal contradiction also raises important questions about what still may be missing from the Party’s long-term strategy.
翻譯成中文。
Three “secondary contradictions” are especially striking on the economic front.
而對此三個“次要矛盾”在經濟方面尤為突出。
翻譯成英文。
首先,國家與市場在指導資源配置方面所扮演的角色依然存在衝突。
First, there is ongoing tension between the role of the state and that of markets in guiding resource allocation.
翻譯成中文。
This was a glaring contradiction of the 2013 Third Plenum reforms, which focused on the seemingly inconsistent combination of a “decisive role” for markets and steadfast support for state ownership.
在2013年十八屆三中全會改革中曾提到過一個明顯矛盾,重點在於市場的“決定性作用”和對國家所有權的堅定支援這兩者看似不協調的組合。
翻譯成英文。
The Party has long believed that these two features of economic life are compatible – the so-called blended economy with Chinese characteristics.
長期以來,黨始終認為經濟生活的這兩大特徵是可以相容的——也就是所謂中國特色的混合所有制經濟。
翻譯成英文。
Xi’s political report praises the mixed ownership model and also aspires to an economy led by great firms with unmatched global competitive prowess. But it glosses over the thorny issue of state-owned enterprise reform that may be required to resolve this contradiction and avoid the Japanese “zombie” problem of a chronic debt overhang.
習近平的政治報告讚揚了這一混合所有制模式,也渴望建立一個以具備壓倒性全球競爭實力的偉大企業為主導的經濟,但報告掩蓋了解決這一矛盾以及避免日本式“殭屍企業”長期欠債問題所需的棘手國企改革。
翻譯成英文。
二是供需矛盾緊張。
Second, there is the tension between supply and demand.
翻譯成中文。
Consistent with other recent pronouncements of senior Chinese officials, the political report leaves little doubt that supply-side structural reforms are now the highest priority of economic policymakers.
與最近中國高層官員的其他宣告一致,政治報告認為供應方面的結構改革無疑是經濟決策者當前的首要任務。
翻譯成英文。
The related emphasis on productivity, innovation, pruning excess capacity, and moving up the value chain in manufacturing and services are underscored as key building blocks of this effort.
對提高生產率,創新,削減過剩產能以及向製造業和服務價值鏈上游邁進的相關強調也是這一努力的重要組成部分。
翻譯成英文。
At the same time, the report de-emphasizes consumer spending and services – now buried deep in the list of priorities for a modernized economy.
與此同時,該報告放棄了對消費者支出和服務的強調——這項事務如今已經在建設現代化經濟的優先事項中排名末尾了。
翻譯成英文。
Yet focusing on supply without paying equal attention to the foundations of aggregate demand is a puzzling and potentially worrisome disconnect.
然而,關注供應卻不重視那些構建總需求的基礎是一個令人困惑且有可能在將來引發擔憂的缺失。
翻譯成英文。
最後一個次要矛盾可以在路徑和目的地之間的對比中找到。
A final secondary tension can be found in the contrast between the path and the destination.
翻譯成中文。
Notwithstanding all the self-congratulatory flourishes in Xi’s political report, there is good reason to believe that the Chinese economy is only in the early stages of its long-heralded structural transformation.
儘管習近平的政治報告充斥著自我表揚,但有理由相信中國經濟依然處於其長期鼓吹的結構轉型的早期階段。
翻譯成英文。
其服務業正在快速增長,但仍處於初創階段,僅佔GDP的52%。
Its services sector is growing rapidly, but is still embryonic, accounting for just 52% of GDP.
翻譯成中文。
家庭消費雖然也在快速增長,也還不不足GDP的40%。
And household consumption, which is also growing rapidly, is still less than 40% of GDP.
翻譯成中文。
中國或許已經走上了一個邁向新常態或新時代的道路。
China may well be on a path to a New Normal or a New Era.
翻譯成中文。
但最終目的地依然遙遠,旅途中也會有許多矛盾需要解決。
But the final destination remains far down the road, with many contradictions to be resolved during the journey.
翻譯成中文。
The GDP-Wellbeing Gap
GDP-幸福差異
翻譯成英文。
吉隆坡—經濟增長和人類幸福之間的聯絡似乎是顯而易見的。
KUALA LUMPUR – The link between economic growth and human wellbeing seems obvious.
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